4sigma

[Kohl]

Hmmm... 4sigma escaped execution again. I'd hate to haunt him as an innocent student but the thought of him leading the EC to victory worries me. Say we do haunt him and he is EC. Do we haunt All Clear next, or is that what 4sigma wants?

:tfh:

[Kaia]

Yeah! Let's haunt him :dsmile:

But we have to wait a week right?

[Kohl]

Yeah! Let's haunt him :dsmile:

But we have to wait a week right?

;) At least until the students lynch.

[Kaia]

Ah, right. So till at least Wed/Thurs since they so hate to lynch early.

As mentioned earlier, we must use the 'haunt to protect' strategy carefully because like Macroman pointed out, it will likely only work once.

Anyway, OldTymer's joined us now. Let's see if she's got any useful pm's to add.

I think I might have a few, I'll post them later.

[Kenshiro]

4sigma helped drive a lot of the suspicion towards SnB. They both voted for each other early too, when lynchings can bandwagon almost over nothing. 4sigma was voting for SnB when he was leading the votes in round 2, before Kaia and I decided to go after Woodrow instead.

That coupled with the innocent student PM stuff would make it a very gutsy play by 4sigma. He would have sold a fellow EC out and brought up a lot of suspicion with the PMs. Setting up a fellow EC to make yourself look innocent probably isn't a bad EC strategy, but if EC were using it, I don't think 4sigma would be the one they chose to make look innocent. I can't see 4sigma surviving to the endgame. He posts too much and has a reputation for being smart and a good strategist so it would be very tough for him to be above suspicion, and I think he knows that.

Mr. Penguin is at the top of my list right now. Hopefully the students will take him out. :dsmile:

[OldTymer]

I hope this copied okay. It's from a pm conversation between me, 4sigma, CasperEc, All Clear and Woodrow. I had a weird sense of deja vu when reading Kenshiro's post above because very similar wording was used by Woodrow in the quote below.

Originally Posted by CasperEC

Originally Posted by Woodrow

Originally Posted by All Clear

I told 4sigma via pm, and since there is a feeling among some that none of you are EC (although that can of course be wrong), I'll tell you also. I was EC in a prior game, and made sure to cast votes near the end, swing ones, votes any which way toward others, especially the other EC people. The reason is that after one dies, the other will be thought of by everyone as "not possibly EC" also. The chance that one vote can make a difference is low enough that the advantage of voting for another EC outweights the negative, in the minds of many. If the three EC people are all relatively new, they may not realize this. Otherwise, expect that at least one "serious" vote would be sent to another EC's way.

I agree, which is my summary tried to distinguish between "lots of votes" and "some votes". I'm not sure how much trouble ShakeNBakes was in in the second round.

Rawfish, Oldtymer and I were very close to getting the ax, so I (selfishly) think that counts for something.

I also like the one space after period theory, I probably like it because I thought of it, also I really think it's something people do without thinking. That clears you (AC) and dinosaur.

If 4 sigma is bad we're in trouble. So the one on this list that is still an open question to me is Casper.

Still, we've narrowed the list, combined with the ghosts we have a real chance. I'm currently voting for Kaia as I think she would find it funny to act like a guy acting like a girl.

I'm glad to hear AC put into words what I've always thought would be a good EC strategy. Place critical votes against other EC and possibly even have one purposely make mistakes, have another "find" the mistakes and lead a bandwagon to kill an EC off to give at least one other EC a "free ride" for a good part (maybe the rest) of the game. That's what makes me suspect 4sigma. It's a very risky move, but I could see him trying to put something like that in place. If it's pulled off, it's almost a guaranteed EC win.

As for your suspicions about me, Woodrow. It's probably best to not convince yourself that anyone is innocent.

The game is deception (or, for ECB, hiding) so you can only find and test theories. By playing the game in a public thread, the EC is privvy to a lot of information that IS would rather they not see. Big advantage for them. PM is a less advertised, but you're never sure that there isn't an EC on the receiving end.

To be clear, I'm not 100% certain that we're all innocent. Let's say I'm 95% confident. I generally believe that the way we win this game is to figure out who isn't EC and lynch everyone that is left until we win. If we've lynched everyone else and all that is left is us, obviously we have to reassess.

The main reason I sent out this PM to begin with is to point out a group of 7 people who I think have good evidence that they are not EC. I believe our best chance of winning is to lynch people not in that group until we are out of those, and then we can examine the seven of us (4sigma, CasperEC, Woodrow, All Clear, OldTymer, harvma, dinosaur) if we come down to that.

I agree that if I were EC I would love to try and kill off another EC and have a free ride for a while. The tricky part is getting another EC who's willing to be the fall guy. That's probably not a very fun game for them as "Best supporting actor."