NL MVP

[MountainHawk]

AL MVP is obvious. Who is the NL MVP?

[MountainHawk]

I have a feeling I missed someone obvious, but I can't figure out who.

[yankeetripper]

I have a feeling I missed someone obvious, but I can't figure out who.

Last year's MVP and the guy who should have been last year's MVP?

[erosewater]

I have a feeling I missed someone obvious, but I can't figure out who.

Ryan Braun

[yankeetripper]

Ryan Braun
Feel free to start your own ROY thread.

The fact that he didn't start playing until the end of May is going to hurt him in the MVP race.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Voters would likely choose Prince Fielder, David Wright, and Chase Utley.
Jonah Keri picks Wright, Pujols, then Utley, based on WARP, even though Pujols' WARP > Wright's WARP.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=keri/070910&sportCat=mlb

[MountainHawk]

Last year's MVP and the guy who should have been last year's MVP?
Howard isn't MVP of the Phils this season, let alone the NL.

Pujolz had a nice year, but I don't think he's top 5 MVP this year ... probably should have added him though.

[SirVLCIV]

ARod should win both MVPs.

Er... if the Cardinals had not had yet another September collapse, and were in line to make the playoffs, Pujols would be a no-doubter. As is... Wright or Utley.

[yankeetripper]

Howard isn't MVP of the Phils this season, let alone the NL.

Pujolz had a nice year, but I don't think he's top 5 MVP this year ... probably should have added him though.

I agree on Howard but stoopid beat writes who vote on this think will look at his HR & RBI totals and beg to differ with you.

Pujols is having another great year on a team that had bubkis in the lineup for most the year.

[Houdini]

Pujolz had a nice year, but I don't think he's top 5 MVP this year ... probably should have added him though.
Too late, you're already on record in the Pujols thread as being a hater.

[Commander Keen]

If the mets continue to collapse, that's gonna hurt wright. Lets say that the mets split their votes, and fielder wins?

Yep, overly hopeful (thinking 4 post season awards for the brewers are possible, but only 1 is likely)

[Houdini]

AL MVP is obvious. Who is the NL MVP?
I hope you're referring to A-Rod? There's a decent number of people who think it should be Magglio. And while a good case can certainly be made for him, it'd be a pretty big stretch.

[MountainHawk]

I hope you're referring to A-Rod? There's a decent number of people who think it should be Magglio. And while a good case can certainly be made for him, it'd be a pretty big stretch.
Yes, ARod.

[MountainHawk]

Too late, you're already on record in the Pujols thread as being a hater.
Yup ... cause I think he's roided up.

Cue Irish Blues rant.

[Patience]

Magglio has a shot if he ends up carrying Detroit into the play offs over NYY

as for NL, a lot depends on who gets in

I see Fielder, Rollins and Wright in that order. However, I would lean towards any of the three over the others based on how it ends up.

The Florida guys were just too out of the race
Holliday's #s are just too home park skewed and Colorado made it interesting, but was never realy close
I chose Rollins over Utley. He just seemed to be the driving force of the team and the Utley injury hurt somewhat
and Reyes faded and Wright persisted

Chipper and Pujols should be in the discussion

[colby2152]

I look at the playoff teams and their most important players only...

Cubbies = ARam, Soriano
Brew Crew = Braun, Fielder
Mutts = Reyes, Wright
Phils = Utley, Rhino, Jimmy
Braves = Smoltzy, Jeff-F
DBacks = Webb, Byrnes
Dodgers = Penny
Padres = Peavy, AG, Young

PROCESS OF ELIMINATION
====================
*First off, sorry to my boys Hanley, Adam Dunn, and Matt Holliday for putting up big #'s for bad teams

1) MVP must be someone who can help win as MANY games as possible, so this eliminates pitchers (they can get Cy Young too) and guys who missed a decent amount of games
IXNAY: Braun, Soriano, Chase, Peavy, Webb, Penny, Chris Young, Smoltz

2) That offensive player needs to be consistent day in and day out, hence a higher average.
IXNAY: Rhino, Gonzo

3) Scoring runs just means you are on base, the high average takes care of that. What really makes your team win is sending those base runners home, so RBI's are favored:
IXNAY: Rollins, Byrnes, Reyes

4) Getting in scoring position off your hit helps much more than singles, so what guys get more double, triples, and homers?
IXNAY: Francoeur

FINAL CANDIDATES:
Prince Fielder, David Wright, ARam

ARam fell through the cracks, 65-23-92?, Not enough dingers

Fielder vs. Wright
Prince: HR, RBI advantage by 15 and 10
David: SB, and AVG advantage by 30 and 20

As much as Fielder has a presence, David Wright is the better all around player. He has fields the balls 95.5% of the time at the hot corner versus Prince's 99% at an easier position. He pushes hard on the base path making him the 5 tool player that big Prince isn't.

[colby2152]

Chipper and Pujols should be in the discussion

I forget Chipper, and Pujols is having a down year albeit very solid season. Chipper would probably make it to my final candidates over ARam - I may have actually used runs or homers to compare. However, Wright is still my guy.

[LifeAct]

I look at the playoff teams and their most important players only...

Cubbies = ARam, Soriano
Brew Crew = Braun, Fielder
Mutts = Reyes, Wright
Phils = Utley, Rhino, Jimmy
Braves = Smoltzy, Jeff-F
DBacks = Webb, Byrnes
Dodgers = Penny
Padres = Peavy, AG, Young

PROCESS OF ELIMINATION
====================
*First off, sorry to my boys Hanley, Adam Dunn, and Matt Holliday for putting up big #'s for bad teams

1) MVP must be someone who can help win as MANY games as possible, so this eliminates pitchers (they can get Cy Young too) and guys who missed a decent amount of games
IXNAY: Braun, Soriano, Chase, Peavy, Webb, Penny, Chris Young, Smoltz

2) That offensive player needs to be consistent day in and day out, hence a higher average.
IXNAY: Rhino, Gonzo

3) Scoring runs just means you are on base, the high average takes care of that. What really makes your team win is sending those base runners home, so RBI's are favored:
IXNAY: Rollins, Byrnes, Reyes

4) Getting in scoring position off your hit helps much more than singles, so what guys get more double, triples, and homers?
IXNAY: Francoeur

FINAL CANDIDATES:
Prince Fielder, David Wright, ARam

ARam fell through the cracks, 65-23-92?, Not enough dingers

Fielder vs. Wright
Prince: HR, RBI advantage by 15 and 10
David: SB, and AVG advantage by 30 and 20

As much as Fielder has a presence, David Wright is the better all around player. He has fields the balls 95.5% of the time at the hot corner versus Prince's 99% at an easier position. He pushes hard on the base path making him the 5 tool player that big Prince isn't.


First off, if you are eliminating Holliday because the Rockies are "bad" whey the hell do you have any Braves or Dodgers in the running? The Rockies are Dodgers are 4.5 out of the WC, the Braves are 5.5.

Your third criteria says that runs scored don't matter, but your fourth criteria says that getting in scoring position does. I don't believe that Reyes belongs in the MVP race, but his 70+ SB means that he turned that many singles (and BB) into doubles after reaching base.

[Patience]

I look at the playoff teams and their most important players only...

Cubbies = ARam, Soriano
Brew Crew = Braun, Fielder
Mutts = Reyes, Wright
Phils = Utley, Rhino, Jimmy
Braves = Smoltzy, Jeff-F
DBacks = Webb, Byrnes
Dodgers = Penny
Padres = Peavy, AG, Young

PROCESS OF ELIMINATION
====================
*First off, sorry to my boys Hanley, Adam Dunn, and Matt Holliday for putting up big #'s for bad teams

1) MVP must be someone who can help win as MANY games as possible, so this eliminates pitchers (they can get Cy Young too) and guys who missed a decent amount of games
IXNAY: Braun, Soriano, Chase, Peavy, Webb, Penny, Chris Young, Smoltz

2) That offensive player needs to be consistent day in and day out, hence a higher average.
IXNAY: Rhino, Gonzo

3) Scoring runs just means you are on base, the high average takes care of that. What really makes your team win is sending those base runners home, so RBI's are favored:
IXNAY: Rollins, Byrnes, Reyes

4) Getting in scoring position off your hit helps much more than singles, so what guys get more double, triples, and homers?
IXNAY: Francoeur

FINAL CANDIDATES:
Prince Fielder, David Wright, ARam

ARam fell through the cracks, 65-23-92?, Not enough dingers

Fielder vs. Wright
Prince: HR, RBI advantage by 15 and 10
David: SB, and AVG advantage by 30 and 20

As much as Fielder has a presence, David Wright is the better all around player. He has fields the balls 95.5% of the time at the hot corner versus Prince's 99% at an easier position. He pushes hard on the base path making him the 5 tool player that big Prince isn't.

first Atl & Co should be considered the same.

second Franceour over Chipper?

third Ramirez should be in the discussion, but I wouldn't remove hime for HRs, but lack of RBIs and Runs - 157 total is not nearly good enough (same for Sorianno and .330 OBP)

fourth Reyes and Rollins are as responsible for scoring all those runs as the guys knocking them in. Eliminating runs makes no sense at all

[SirVLCIV]

I look at the playoff teams and their most important players only...

Is this who SHOULD win or who WILL win?

I'll buy your arguments on who WILL win, but I dislike your methodology if this is for who SHOULD win.

[Cohete009]

Braun for ROY and MVP!

[Commander Keen]

Braun for ROY and MVP!

1/2 ain't bad.

[erosewater]

Feel free to start your own ROY thread.

The fact that he didn't start playing until the end of May is going to hurt him in the MVP race.

He wouldn't get my vote, but I think he has to be considered. I was merely answering MH's question about the obvious person he missed.

[erosewater]

I look at the playoff teams and their most important players only...

Cubbies = ARam, Soriano
Brew Crew = Braun, Fielder
Mutts = Reyes, Wright
Phils = Utley, Rhino, Jimmy
Braves = Smoltzy, Jeff-F
DBacks = Webb, Byrnes
Dodgers = Penny
Padres = Peavy, AG, Young

PROCESS OF ELIMINATION
====================
*First off, sorry to my boys Hanley, Adam Dunn, and Matt Holliday for putting up big #'s for bad teams

1) MVP must be someone who can help win as MANY games as possible, so this eliminates pitchers (they can get Cy Young too) and guys who missed a decent amount of games
IXNAY: Braun, Soriano, Chase, Peavy, Webb, Penny, Chris Young, Smoltz

2) That offensive player needs to be consistent day in and day out, hence a higher average.
IXNAY: Rhino, Gonzo

3) Scoring runs just means you are on base, the high average takes care of that. What really makes your team win is sending those base runners home, so RBI's are favored:
IXNAY: Rollins, Byrnes, Reyes

4) Getting in scoring position off your hit helps much more than singles, so what guys get more double, triples, and homers?
IXNAY: Francoeur

FINAL CANDIDATES:
Prince Fielder, David Wright, ARam

ARam fell through the cracks, 65-23-92?, Not enough dingers

Fielder vs. Wright
Prince: HR, RBI advantage by 15 and 10
David: SB, and AVG advantage by 30 and 20

As much as Fielder has a presence, David Wright is the better all around player. He has fields the balls 95.5% of the time at the hot corner versus Prince's 99% at an easier position. He pushes hard on the base path making him the 5 tool player that big Prince isn't.

This is flawed for so many reasons I don't even know where to begin.

Wait, yes I do. Francouer over Chipper, seriously?

[erosewater]

FWIW, here's BB Prospectus top 20 in VORP:


# NAME VORP
1 Hanley Ramirez 85.6
2 David Wright 70.7
3 Chipper Jones 69.9
4 Matt Holliday 67.8
5 Miguel Cabrera 66
6 Albert Pujols 64.9
7 Chase Utley 62.7
8 Prince Fielder 62.4
9 Jimmy Rollins 60.8
10 Barry Bonds 56.3
11 Aaron Rowand 51.6
12 Ryan Braun 51.3
13 Carlos Beltran 50
14 Jose Reyes 47.6
15 Russell Martin 46.5
16 Edgar Renteria 46.1
17 Todd Helton 45.5
18 Adam Dunn 45
19 Aramis Ramirez 43
20 Brandon Phillips 41


And since VORP is a cumulative stat, VORP/PA (not the same 20)

NAME vorp/pa
1 Hanley Ramirez 0.131
2 Chipper Jones 0.126
3 Barry Bonds 0.119
4 Ryan Braun 0.116
5 Chase Utley 0.111
6 David Wright 0.108
7 Miguel Cabrera 0.104
8 Matt Holliday 0.102
9 Albert Pujols 0.101
10 Prince Fielder 0.099
11 Edgar Renteria 0.091
12 Carlos Beltran 0.086
13 Jimmy Rollins 0.084
14 Aramis Ramirez 0.083
15 Hunter Pence 0.082
16 Aaron Rowand 0.081
17 Russell Martin 0.079
18 Dmitri Young 0.076
19 Todd Helton 0.073
20 Adam Dunn 0.073


Puts into perspective just how good Braun's season was (Hunter Pence as well). VORP is position adjusted, and does not include defense.

[Commander Keen]

FWIW, here's BB Prospectus top 20 in VORP:


# NAME VORP
1 Hanley Ramirez 85.6
2 David Wright 70.7
3 Chipper Jones 69.9
4 Matt Holliday 67.8
5 Miguel Cabrera 66
6 Albert Pujols 64.9
7 Chase Utley 62.7
8 Prince Fielder 62.4
9 Jimmy Rollins 60.8
10 Barry Bonds 56.3
11 Aaron Rowand 51.6
12 Ryan Braun 51.3
13 Carlos Beltran 50
14 Jose Reyes 47.6
15 Russell Martin 46.5
16 Edgar Renteria 46.1
17 Todd Helton 45.5
18 Adam Dunn 45
19 Aramis Ramirez 43
20 Brandon Phillips 41


And since VORP is a cumulative stat, VORP/PA (not the same 20)

NAME vorp/pa
1 Hanley Ramirez 0.131
2 Chipper Jones 0.126
3 Barry Bonds 0.119
4 Ryan Braun 0.116
5 Chase Utley 0.111
6 David Wright 0.108
7 Miguel Cabrera 0.104
8 Matt Holliday 0.102
9 Albert Pujols 0.101
10 Prince Fielder 0.099
11 Edgar Renteria 0.091
12 Carlos Beltran 0.086
13 Jimmy Rollins 0.084
14 Aramis Ramirez 0.083
15 Hunter Pence 0.082
16 Aaron Rowand 0.081
17 Russell Martin 0.079
18 Dmitri Young 0.076
19 Todd Helton 0.073
20 Adam Dunn 0.073


Puts into perspective just how good Braun's season was (Hunter Pence as well). VORP is position adjusted, and does not include defense.

There you go. Braun's out. (even though he was before). If you get taken out of close games for a defensive replacement, you're not the MVP. You can't be. MVPs need to play defense. and yes, that eliminates the DH.

[The African Queen]

Magglio has a shot if he ends up carrying Detroit into the play offs over NYY

as for NL, a lot depends on who gets in

I see Fielder, Rollins and Wright in that order. However, I would lean towards any of the three over the others based on how it ends up.

The Florida guys were just too out of the race
Holliday's #s are just too home park skewed and Colorado made it interesting, but was never realy close
I chose Rollins over Utley. He just seemed to be the driving force of the team and the Utley injury hurt somewhat
and Reyes faded and Wright persisted

Chipper and Pujols should be in the discussion

ARod is going to be on every single voter's first place ballot. If not, then that voter simply has an anti-Yankee bias. Arod has had one of the best season's ever. He's been great for average, power, clutch hitting, base stealing, fielding. And this would be the vote even if the Yanks lost out to the Tigers.

[Patience]

based on that and my feeling the winner needs to be in a playoff race I see Wright as the winner.

Problem with /pa is the obvious. Utley may have been the best player had he not missed time, but he did and that has to count against him. I wouldn't give it to someone who only platooned against righties either

The rookie class in the NL looks really good this year.

[Commander Keen]

based on that and my feeling the winner needs to be in a playoff race I see Wright as the winner.

If the Mets don't make the Playoffs, this isn't happening...

What are your guys gripes with Fielder, for those who have them?

[Patience]

If the Mets don't make the Playoffs, this isn't happening...

What are your guys gripes with Fielder, for those who have them?


No gripe.. I think I put Fielder above Wright in my initial post, but I voted Wright feeling the Mets will make it in and the Brewers won't. and a lot of MVPis seeing what a guy does for a team above and beyond the stats. I can get a feel for that with Rollins, Utley, Reyes and Wright. Even Chipper, but I just don't get a read of that for Fielder, so in a way that counts against him even though it shouldn't

and I agree if the Mets miss out Wright is off the table

[Commander Keen]

No gripe.. I think I put Fielder above Wright in my initial post, but I voted Wright feeling the Mets will make it in and the Brewers won't. and a lot of MVPis seeing what a guy does for a team above and beyond the stats. I can get a feel for that with Rollins, Utley, Reyes and Wright. Even Chipper, but I just don't get a read of that for Fielder, so in a way that counts against him even though it shouldn't

and I agree if the Mets miss out Wright is off the table

Ah, so it's a combination of your lack of exposure to the brewers...

I like to think in terms of value to a team. Wright & Reyes are surrounded by superstars, which, IMO, diminishes the individual value they make towards the team.

Prince is surrounded by Potential superstars (;-)), but on an individual level, makes a bigger contribution, in my mind (although I'm admittedly a homer).

Bottom Line: Individual Awards in a team game = :shake:

[yankeetripper]

So it counts against Fielder that he can't take Sheets spot in the roation and against Wright that he can come in in middle relief?

I go with Fielder based on combo of OPS + HRs along with keeping a team that hasn't finished over .500 in the post-strike era in the pennat race until the at least the final week of the season.

I think there are a few guys with moster final 2 weeks who could take the MVP, but barring a player putting a team on his back and single handedly carrying them to the post season like Giambi did for the A's when he won MVP I think the award is Fielder's to lose.

[LifeAct]

I think there are a few guys with moster final 2 weeks who could take the MVP, but barring a player putting a team on his back and single handedly carrying them to the post season like Giambi did for the A's when he won MVP I think the award is Fielder's to lose.


In other words, Holliday should start shooting up now.

[The African Queen]

based on that and my feeling the winner needs to be in a playoff race I see Wright as the winner.

Problem with /pa is the obvious. Utley may have been the best player had he not missed time, but he did and that has to count against him. I wouldn't give it to someone who only platooned against righties either

The rookie class in the NL looks really good this year.

Utley may have missed time, but Wirght took off the month of April and part of May also. are they really that different? I agree, there is some anti-Brewer bias going on here. Prince Fielder should win it in the NL.

[yankeetripper]

In other words, Holliday should start shooting up now.

Nah, I think these thing take some time to have a positive effect the Giambino had a great teacher in Big Mac; Holliday just needs to change the remaining schedule to all home games.

[yankeetripper]

...but Wirght took off the month of April and part of May ...

That didn't hurt Mourneau in the AL last year. :shrug:

Wright's had a great year and deserves consideration, I'd still give the nod to Prince.

[Patience]

unfortunately lack of exposure does contribute. Also the team is 8 games under .500 since the end of June while also, having the weakest strength of schedule in the majors.. also 13 errors at 1B,,, all make me not be on his bandwagon as carrying a team to victory

Mets have Reyes, Wright and Beltran.. if anyone else is playing at superstar level please let me know. Alou has been hot, but missed too much to even consider.

Fielder has Hart, Hardy, Braun - he doesn't have less support, the names are just less known

[Patience]

Utley may have missed time, but Wirght took off the month of April and part of May also. are they really that different? .

the big difference is all the at bats that Wright had that are dragging down BA, OBP and OPS
over coming that is a lot more than missed time. But if you want to drop April stats from the conversation I will gladly compare that

[udjw828]

Lack of exposure: I consider myself a decent baseball fan...albeit with an east-coast bias...I play fantasy baseball (in the consolation game of the 20-team AO keeper league), and I actually haven't even heard of Braun...

[Abstract Actuary]

Who is the pick if the Brewers and Mets both miss the playoffs?

[LifeAct]

Who is the pick if the Brewers and Mets both miss the playoffs?

If the Mets miss the playoffs then I would consider Ronnie Belliard to be a valuable piece of that equation.

[Kid Rock]

I am a Yank-me hater, but would still consider voting for a Yank-me for AL MVP. It's not A Rod. He has put up monster stats, no doubt. But, at no time did the Yanks seem to respond to his numbers. He started quickly and they were losing. He has had ups and downs and at no point did he really carry the team. He tends to respond when they all get hot, particularly Jeter and Cano.

There are people on the board that do not like pitchers or players that did not play all year. However, since Joba Chamberlain came up, the Yanks have been nearly unbeatable. If they were still throwing Farnsworth, Vizcaino and the other chumps out there, NO WAY would they be in the playoffs. That sounds like most valuable.

[LifeAct]

I am a Yank-me hater, but would still consider voting for a Yank-me for AL MVP. It's not A Rod. He has put up monster stats, no doubt. But, at no time did the Yanks seem to respond to his numbers. He started quickly and they were losing. He has had ups and downs and at no point did he really carry the team. He tends to respond when they all get hot, particularly Jeter and Cano.

There are people on the board that do not like pitchers or players that did not play all year. However, since Joba Chamberlain came up, the Yanks have been nearly unbeatable. If they were still throwing Farnsworth, Vizcaino and the other chumps out there, NO WAY would they be in the playoffs. That sounds like most valuable.


If it weren't for A-Rod the would have had a worse April and May than they already did. He single handedly kept them within striking distance of .500.

[Cohete009]

I play fantasy baseball, and I actually haven't even heard of Braun...

You must be in last place then :lol:

[stoodawg]

nice post cohete

[erosewater]

I consider myself a decent baseball fan... and I actually haven't even heard of Braun...

If you haven't heard of Ryan Braun I don't think you can really consider yourself a "decent baseball fan". He's having one of the best all-time seasons by a rookie. It's up there with Pujols, Piazza, McGwire, etc.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I look at the playoff teams and their most important players only...
...
3) Scoring runs just means you are on base, the high average takes care of that. What really makes your team win is sending those base runners home, so RBI's are favored:
IXNAY: Rollins, Byrnes, Reyes

4) Getting in scoring position off your hit helps much more than singles, so what guys get more double, triples, and homers?
IXNAY: Francoeur

If we're analyzing and predicting how writers will vote, then RBI (and demeanor toward the writers) is very important.

Otherwise, RBI is a by-product of one's slugging average and his manager's placing him in the lineup where he can bat more runs in. I.e., RBI is not completely the control of the batter, and another stats tells the rest of the story.

Anywho, we could cull a list of guys at the top of the important stats, using some minimum to be eligible, then go from there. Bonds is having another freaky season. He has about half as many official at-bats (337) than leader Jimmy Rollins (667) (26 fewer games and 84 more BBs), but still leading the stat-geek-important (i.e., not old-fart-sportswriter-important) OPS and OBP by 50/1000 over altitude-dependent Helton's.
Stats and their minimum eligibilities (feel free to suggest different minimums -- I just took rounded numbers relative to the number of qualifiers):
1. BA > 0.300; 14 NL'ers qualify.
2. OBP > 0.400; 9 qualify.
3. Slugging > 0.550; 11 qualify.
4. OPS > 0.900; 15 qualify.
5. HR > 30; 12 qualify.
6. 2B > 40; 10 qualify.
7. RC > 100; 18 qualify.
8. RC/27 > 7.5; 12 qualify
9. BB/K > 1; 7 qualify.
After these, we check to see whether their contributions resulted in what is perceived as worthwhile: playoff for their team, some intangible leadership qualities, etc.

We can then find who qualifies in the most categories, but most of these are redundant.
I'd rather look just at RC, RC/27, BB/K. I don't really care how the runs are theoretically created, so it provides a relevant importance to the rest of the stats. BB/K describes a batter's patience at the plate and tells the observer that the batter values his team over his own glamour stats.
Only Chipper Jones qualifies in all three of these as described above, but Pujols is just under at 7.93 RC/27 and his BB/K is over 50% better than Jones's. Meanwhile, Bonds completely dominates the BB/K and RC/27, but he's a 75% player. So, who would I rather have, based on offensive stats? Pujols. Where would he play for defense? First base, so more subjective information might be needed.
Still going with Wright myself. I value Keri's opinion over my own.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Braun has done very well: OPS > 1, HR > 30, RC/27 > 8. MOST valuable, though? Nah.
He'll be up there, though, due to MIL's unexpected run and the sportswriters' collective "Must be all because of Braun" mentality. There should be plenty of years to come. No rush.
He's not even eligible for placement on average-stat lists due to low PA.

[udjw828]

If you haven't heard of Ryan Braun I don't think you can really consider yourself a "decent baseball fan". He's having one of the best all-time seasons by a rookie. It's up there with Pujols, Piazza, McGwire, etc.


Like I said...East-coast bias...I've heard of Fielder, Hart, Sheets...but Braun just hasn't crossed my radar...

[udjw828]

You must be in last place then :lol:


Yeah, I must be...guess I should go check the league site again... :lol:

[shadyridr]

I am a Yank-me hater, but would still consider voting for a Yank-me for AL MVP. It's not A Rod. He has put up monster stats, no doubt. But, at no time did the Yanks seem to respond to his numbers. He started quickly and they were losing. He has had ups and downs and at no point did he really carry the team. He tends to respond when they all get hot, particularly Jeter and Cano.

There are people on the board that do not like pitchers or players that did not play all year. However, since Joba Chamberlain came up, the Yanks have been nearly unbeatable. If they were still throwing Farnsworth, Vizcaino and the other chumps out there, NO WAY would they be in the playoffs. That sounds like most valuable.


:lol: ARod single handedly carried the team in April & May. They wouldnt have made the playoffs without him period. Your post is laughable.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

:lol: ARod single handedly carried the team in April & May. They wouldnt have made the playoffs without him period. Your post is laughable.
According to the stats, games won in April and May are worth about half as much as those won in August and September. You can look it up!
So, A-Rod was wasting his talent at the wrong time, again.

(Yes, I'm being sarcastic, and possibly glib. I expect this to be a laughable post.)

[yankeetripper]

:lol: ARod single handedly carried the team in April & May. They wouldnt have made the playoffs without him period. Your post is laughable.

I could entertain Posada as an alternate candidate for MVP but even as good as Posada has been having a pretty historic season for a cather, he falls woefully short of A-rod this year.

A-rod only leads all of MLB in: R, HR, RBI, SLG, OPS, RC, ISOP, VORP.

Oh and he might just win the gold glove at 3b in the AL this year, not sure if he deserves it but there is no clear cut favorite.

W/o A-rod Shaddy is dead on when he says Yanks would not be making the post-season w/o him.

[Patience]

Who is the pick if the Brewers and Mets both miss the playoffs?

In my opnion Rollins

[yankeetripper]

In my opnion Rollins

Why rollins over utley? IMO Utley would be the Phillies MVP hands down even with the missed time.

[Patience]

Why rollins over utley? IMO Utley would be the Phillies MVP hands down even with the missed time.

I feel that Rollins was the heart and drive behind the team.. plus had enough stats to back it up. I asked the question of the Philly fans, but to me Rollins inspired this team and always seemed to be in the middle of anything good that happened

[MountainHawk]

I feel that Rollins was the heart and drive behind the team.. plus had enough stats to back it up. I asked the question of the Philly fans, but to me Rollins inspired this team and always seemed to be in the middle of anything good that happened
Utley and JRoll together are the heart of the Phillies. They are going to be so for the foreseeable future. I would pick JRoll this year because he was there the whole time, I think he's more of a catalyst (starting right from the 'Phils are the team to beat in the NL this season' comment), and I think he's a little more consistent on the road than Chase. (Isn't Chase hitting near .400 in Philly?)

They are both awesome players, though, and Utley-Rollins is going to be the Phils answer to Wright-Reyes for the next 7 years or so.

[Patience]

Utley and JRoll together are the heart of the Phillies. They are going to be so for the foreseeable future. I would pick JRoll this year because he was there the whole time, I think he's more of a catalyst (starting right from the 'Phils are the team to beat in the NL this season' comment), and I think he's a little more consistent on the road than Chase. (Isn't Chase hitting near .400 in Philly?)

They are both awesome players, though, and Utley-Rollins is going to be the Phils answer to Wright-Reyes for the next 7 years or so.

I like Utley a lot. I am only commenting on this season and the MVP. If each team had to place one representative I would pick Rollins for Philly

[The African Queen]

I am a Yank-me hater, but would still consider voting for a Yank-me for AL MVP. It's not A Rod. He has put up monster stats, no doubt. But, at no time did the Yanks seem to respond to his numbers. He started quickly and they were losing. He has had ups and downs and at no point did he really carry the team. He tends to respond when they all get hot, particularly Jeter and Cano.

There are people on the board that do not like pitchers or players that did not play all year. However, since Joba Chamberlain came up, the Yanks have been nearly unbeatable. If they were still throwing Farnsworth, Vizcaino and the other chumps out there, NO WAY would they be in the playoffs. That sounds like most valuable.

Troll. Please go away. They were way improved before Joba came up. He's been great, but without Arod, the Yanks would have fallen way behind even Tampa Bay.

[colby2152]

First off, if you are eliminating Holliday because the Rockies are "bad" whey the hell do you have any Braves or Dodgers in the running? The Rockies are Dodgers are 4.5 out of the WC, the Braves are 5.5.

My bad, I am dismissing the Rockies even though they are in it.

Your third criteria says that runs scored don't matter, but your fourth criteria says that getting in scoring position does. I don't believe that Reyes belongs in the MVP race, but his 70+ SB means that he turned that many singles (and BB) into doubles after reaching base.

Getting nit picky.. Reyes was eliminated, settle with that.

second Franceour over Chipper?

Read later comment... I wrote this quick.

third Ramirez should be in the discussion, but I wouldn't remove hime for HRs, but lack of RBIs and Runs - 157 total is not nearly good enough (same for Sorianno and .330 OBP)

those are extra reasons..

Is this who SHOULD win or who WILL win?

I'll buy your arguments on who WILL win, but I dislike your methodology if this is for who SHOULD win.

Team MVP and League MVP are different.

This is flawed for so many reasons I don't even know where to begin.

Wait, yes I do. Francouer over Chipper, seriously?

WTF, forget I even f-in posted.

[colby2152]

If we're analyzing and predicting how writers will vote, then RBI (and demeanor toward the writers) is very important.


Did you miss what I wrote? I was looking at 5-tool players - guys who steal bases, hit for average, bat runs in, and have solid defense.

[colby2152]

1. BA > 0.300; 14 NL'ers qualify.
2. OBP > 0.400; 9 qualify.
3. Slugging > 0.550; 11 qualify.
4. OPS > 0.900; 15 qualify.
5. HR > 30; 12 qualify.
6. 2B > 40; 10 qualify.
7. RC > 100; 18 qualify.
8. RC/27 > 7.5; 12 qualify
9. BB/K > 1; 7 qualify.

I like this, but there is nothing about defense unless RC is something. WTF is RC? Is that runs counted?

[colby2152]

Since people were taken back from what I originally wrote... I did miss out on a few things when I wrote that up this morning..

Chipper Jones
Matt Holliday should be in the running

I honestly think Hanley Ramirez is the best player in the NL this season, but the Marlins suck. Only 300 people went to see them last week; I mean - COME ON PEOPLE! NL MVP goes to playoff contending teams though.

I am still sticking to my boy David Wright. The Mets are in a skid and still ahead in the EAST.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I like this, but there is nothing about defense unless RC is something. WTF is RC? Is that runs counted?
RC="Runs Created." It's even on ESPN's stats, so it's legit.

Google/wiki are your friends:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

Nothing about defense, but I'm going to equate defense analysis (all still too nebulous, IMO) with untangibles like leadership and willingness to talk with reporters after losses.

Also, that list of stats is just to determine who should be considered. These players' defensive skills need further consideration, possibly the last tie-breaker (or over-taker when one player is, offensively, slightly above the better-defense player).

[LifeAct]

WTF, forget I even f-in posted.


Don't worry, we did.

[Patience]

when I was a kid it was so easy - I looked at Runs + RBI - HR.. I know it is a team based stat, but what isn't

[erosewater]

One other thing, since the award is most valuable, I think you have to consider the position as well (to an extent). Chase Utley has a ton of value to his team, because it's not easy to find a 2B with offensive skills like he has, whereas Prince (as much as I like him as player) plays a position where sluggers are a dime a dozen. This shouldn't come into play in the MVP discussion as much as it would in just a general player evaluation discussion, but it is something to keep in mind.

[Houdini]

One other thing, since the award is most valuable, I think you have to consider the position as well (to an extent). Chase Utley has a ton of value to his team, because it's not easy to find a 2B with offensive skills like he has, whereas Prince (as much as I like him as player) plays a position where sluggers are a dime a dozen. This shouldn't come into play in the MVP discussion as much as it would in just a general player evaluation discussion, but it is something to keep in mind.
I agree it should be kept in mind, but sometimes I think it's overrated. For example, take everyone's favorite slugger, Albert Pujols. He played excellent 3B when he first came up, but on the Cards he plays 1st because they acquired Scott Rolen. That seemingly lowers his value even though he could easily be at the opposite corner.

I always wonder what his VORP would be if he were still a 3rd baseman.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

when I was a kid it was so easy - I looked at Runs + RBI - HR.. I know it is a team based stat, but what isn't
Well, to determine an individual baseball player's value, you'd want to minimize the team-dependentness of the stats.

OBP, slugging pct, BB/K, Runs Created. While Bonds' OBP is a notable exception in this list (he walks more because the players after him are a lot worse than he, but then that kind of bolsters the argument that he is a player to be avoided), I'm hard pressed to attach too much team-dependence on the others. Get imaginative if necessary.

[erosewater]

I agree it should be kept in mind, but sometimes I think it's overrated. For example, take everyone's favorite slugger, Albert Pujols. He played excellent 3B when he first came up, but on the Cards he plays 1st because they acquired Scott Rolen. That seemingly lowers his value even though he could easily be at the opposite corner.

I always wonder what his VORP would be if he were still a 3rd baseman.

That's very true. Carl Crawford plays LF, which is one of the easiest positions on the field, but he could (and used to) play CF. Playing LF lowers his perceived value, even though he could move to a more demanding defensive position and play very well.

[Kid Rock]

:lol: ARod single handedly carried the team in April & May. They wouldnt have made the playoffs without him period. Your post is laughable.

Yes, that 6-14 record in 1 run games in the first half was all on ARod's back. He did not carry the team, they were LOSING.....

I stand corrected, LOSING is how ARod carries the team. Not a winner. He is the Anti-Ruth.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Yes, that 6-14 record in 1 run games in the first half was all on ARod's back. He did not carry the team, they were LOSING.....

I stand corrected, LOSING is how ARod carries the team. Not a winner. He is the Anti-Ruth.
Meh. One-run games are the result more of luck. Some of the manager. Probably 0% due to a specific player who was playing better than Ruth (short-term).

[Patience]

Well, to determine an individual baseball player's value, you'd want to minimize the team-dependentness of the stats.

OBP, slugging pct, BB/K, Runs Created. While Bonds' OBP is a notable exception in this list (he walks more because the players after him are a lot worse than he, but then that kind of bolsters the argument that he is a player to be avoided), I'm hard pressed to attach too much team-dependence on the others. Get imaginative if necessary.

when I grew up there were no stats other than those you got in the Sunday paper

[ian grey]

If we're analyzing and predicting how writers will vote, then RBI (and demeanor toward the writers) is very important.

Otherwise, RBI is a by-product of one's slugging average and his manager's placing him in the lineup where he can bat more runs in. I.e., RBI is not completely the control of the batter, and another stats tells the rest of the story.

Anywho, we could cull a list of guys at the top of the important stats, using some minimum to be eligible, then go from there. Bonds is having another freaky season. He has about half as many official at-bats (337) than leader Jimmy Rollins (667) (26 fewer games and 84 more BBs), but still leading the stat-geek-important (i.e., not old-fart-sportswriter-important) OPS and OBP by 50/1000 over altitude-dependent Helton's.
Stats and their minimum eligibilities (feel free to suggest different minimums -- I just took rounded numbers relative to the number of qualifiers):
1. BA > 0.300; 14 NL'ers qualify.
2. OBP > 0.400; 9 qualify.
3. Slugging > 0.550; 11 qualify.
4. OPS > 0.900; 15 qualify.
5. HR > 30; 12 qualify.
6. 2B > 40; 10 qualify.
7. RC > 100; 18 qualify.
8. RC/27 > 7.5; 12 qualify
9. BB/K > 1; 7 qualify.
After these, we check to see whether their contributions resulted in what is perceived as worthwhile: playoff for their team, some intangible leadership qualities, etc.

We can then find who qualifies in the most categories, but most of these are redundant.
I'd rather look just at RC, RC/27, BB/K. I don't really care how the runs are theoretically created, so it provides a relevant importance to the rest of the stats. BB/K describes a batter's patience at the plate and tells the observer that the batter values his team over his own glamour stats.
Only Chipper Jones qualifies in all three of these as described above, but Pujols is just under at 7.93 RC/27 and his BB/K is over 50% better than Jones's. Meanwhile, Bonds completely dominates the BB/K and RC/27, but he's a 75% player. So, who would I rather have, based on offensive stats? Pujols. Where would he play for defense? First base, so more subjective information might be needed.
Still going with Wright myself. I value Keri's opinion over my own.

I don't understand the bolded statement. Seems to me that RC is a "theoretical" stat.

[td25er]

Yes, that 6-14 record in 1 run games in the first half was all on ARod's back. He did not carry the team, they were LOSING.....

I stand corrected, LOSING is how ARod carries the team. Not a winner. He is the Anti-Ruth.

Take away Arod and they're 0-20 instead of 6-14. I may or may not be exaggerating

[Patience]

I may or may not be exaggerating

aren't we all - or are we?

[Dr T Non-Fan]

when I grew up there were no stats other than those you got in the Sunday paper
"Sunday paper"? Geez you're old.
More so, it points to a time when the paper was ignorant of numbers. The current voters likely were writers of that time.

[td25er]

I'm 27 and I grew up reading the baseball pages in the Sunday paper.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I don't understand the bolded statement. Seems to me that RC is a "theoretical" stat.
You seem to understand it very well:
1. RC is a theoretical stat. It doesn't actually determine how each run was created. That would likely involve a lot of observation and then subjective allocation. Example: batter hits triple; next batter: wild pitch, and runner scores. runner gets 3/4 of run? Pitcher gets dinged a negative 1/4? RC's formula is calibrated to make totals equal the actual number of runs for a season. It has its ad's and disad's.
2. That is why I wrote "runs are theoretically created."
3. The more important bolded words are "I don't care how..." More casual observers of baseball consider HRs as more important (because of their visual awesomeness), and RBI as an indicator of a player's individual ability to produce hit when it counts, not realizing that a high RBI player is placed in the lineup to have more RBI opportunities than, say a leadoff batter. He's placed in the RBI opportunity spot because he has a high slugging percentage. Not the other way around.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Take away Arod and they're 0-20 instead of 6-14. I may or may not be exaggerating
What about 2-run games? A-Rod might have hit a three-run HR and Yanks win by two instead losing yet another 1-run game.

[LifeAct]

What about 2-run games? A-Rod might have hit a three-run HR and Yanks win by two instead losing yet another 1-run game.

That happened twice in April.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/wrap.jsp?ymd=20070407&content_id=1884778&vkey=wrapup2005&fext=.jsp&team=home&c_id=nyy

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/wrap.jsp?ymd=20070419&content_id=1918668&vkey=wrapup2005&fext=.jsp&team=home&c_id=nyy

[Patience]

btw, has anyone noticed that Ryan Howard has more strikeouts this year than Albert Pujols has in his last Three Seasons Combined

[MountainHawk]

btw, has anyone noticed that Ryan Howard has more strikeouts this year than Albert Pujols has in his last Three Seasons Combined
he also has more HR, RBI, and BB.

[erosewater]

btw, has anyone noticed that Ryan Howard has more strikeouts this year than Albert Pujols has in his last Three Seasons Combined

???

He has more than three times as many as Pujols. Pujols doesn't K much at all, while Howard is Dunn-esque in that regard.

Edit, can't see that white text until you quote

[Patience]

I guess the white was too subtle.

For a power hitter I am just shocked at how little Pujols Ks

[LifeAct]

I think that a couple of people missed the white font in Patience's post.

[Patience]

he also has more HR, RBI, and BB.

not BB

[MountainHawk]

not BB
Yes he does. Howard has 98, Pujolz 94.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=All&statType=1&noHighlight=true&section1=1&timeFrame=1&statSet1=1&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=BB

[Patience]

while Howard is Dunn-esque in that regard.

I was going to make a argument to the Dunn comparison, but I had no idea he was batting almost .270 this year.

[erosewater]

I guess the white was too subtle.

For a power hitter I am just shocked at how little Pujols Ks

A couple years ago I remember him saying before the season he had a goal of striking out fewer than (I think) 40 times for the season. He hasn't done it, but he does have an amazing contact rate for a player with that type of power.

[Patience]

Yes he does. Howard has 98, Pujolz 94.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=All&statType=1&noHighlight=true&section1=1&timeFrame=1&statSet1=1&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=BB

nevermind, not sure what I was looking at

[erosewater]

I was going to make a argument to the Dunn comparison, but I had no idea he was batting almost .270 this year.

Dunn is very underrated because of his typically very low avg. I don't care if a guy hits .250 when his OBP is .380.

Career K rate for Howard = 0.338, Dunn = .325

[Patience]

Dunn is very underrated because of his typically very low avg. I don't care if a guy hits .250 when his OBP is .380.

Career K rate for Howard = 0.338, Dunn = .325

always high OPS. I do like a higher batting average than .240 though, you don't want your RBI guys saving it for the next guy to do the job, but definitely under rated

[Dr T Non-Fan]

btw, has anyone noticed that Ryan Howard has more strikeouts this year than Albert Pujols has in his last Three Seasons Combined
Ryan leads the league, so far. I find that not very valuable.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

always high OPS. I do like a higher batting average than .240 though, you don't want your RBI guys saving it for the next guy to do the job, but definitely under rated
Bah. Your RBI guy is a slugger. BA needs to be looked after slugging average.
To be similar-arguing: I don't want my RBI guy hitting infield singles and NOT batting in runners in scoring position.
I also don't want my RBI guy swinging at bad pitches because he thinks he HAS to bat runners in.
I also don't want him to think that just because the guy after him sucks, though.

[MountainHawk]

Did JRoll win this down the stretch?

[DW Simpson]

Did JRoll win this down the stretch?

I think Pujols nailed it again. Sorry.

[mlschop]

I think Pujols nailed it again. Sorry.

I hope another Phillie wins it over Pooholes so we can have another "Pooholes got screwed" thread :tup:

[td25er]

It's gotta be Holliday....especially if they beat the Padres. I could see Fielder or Rollins though

[erosewater]

I think Pujols nailed it again. Sorry.

Mods, please ban Claude from all baseball threads. Thanks!

[DW Simpson]

Mods, please ban Claude from all baseball threads. Thanks!

Somebody forgot to turn their sarcasm detector on :)

[Houdini]

It's gotta be Holliday....especially if they beat the Padres. I could see Fielder or Rollins though
It's only gotta be Holliday if we want the player who deserves it to have it. But my guess is it'll go to the most-hyped player, which at the moment is Jimmy Rollins.

Remember kids, a win in May isn't nearly as important as a win in September!

[MountainHawk]

Which of these players is more MVP like?

Player A: .301/.374./485, 186H, 44 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 110 RBI, 14 SB

Player B: .293/.352/.507, 216H, 50 2B, 18 3B, 24 HR, 94 RBI, 42 SB

Player A is Holliday's road stats doubled, Player B is Rollins' road stats doubled

[DW Simpson]

Which of these players is more MVP like?

Player A: .301/.374./485, 186H, 44 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 110 RBI, 14 SB

Player B: .293/.352/.507, 216H, 50 2B, 18 3B, 24 HR, 94 RBI, 42 SB

Are they both designated hitters or should we guess what positions they play?

[MountainHawk]

Let's say player A plays a defensive position where you hide bad defensive players (1B, LF) and player B plays a key defensive position (CF, 2B, SS)

[DW Simpson]

Let's say player A plays a defensive position where you hide bad defensive players (1B, LF) and player B plays a key defensive position (CF, 2B, SS)

Did Player A have an atypical outstanding defensive season?

What kind of range do they have? How many runs did they save for their respective teams?

[Pseudolus]

Noting defensive position might win the argument for Han-Ram.

[MountainHawk]

Player A: 3E, .990 Fld%, 1.77 Range, .912 Zone Rating

Player B: 11E, .985 Fld%, 4.41 Range, .824 Zone Rating


Player A was better at his position in the field. 2nd F%, 5th RF, 1st Zone compared to 3rd, 7th, and 6th for player B, but again, player B plays a much tougher position.

[MountainHawk]

Noting defensive position might win the argument for Han-Ram.
Err ... Hanley Ramirez is one of the worst defensive SS in the NL. .963 Fld%, 4.27 RF, 7.86 ZR (11th, 10th, 13th out of 13 SS in the NL)

[DW Simpson]

Player A: 3E, .990 Fld%, 1.77 Range, .912 Zone Rating

Player B: 11E, .985 Fld%, 4.41 Range, .824 Zone Rating


Player A was better at his position in the field. 2nd F%, 5th RF, 1st Zone compared to 3rd, 7th, and 6th for player B, but again, player B plays a much tougher position.

Maybe a pitcher deserves it then.

[Pseudolus]

Ah, but all I said was "position", not "effectiveness". :)

According to the nerdstats, Han-Ram has ~15 runs on Holliday, ~23 on Rollins. Is his defense bad enough to overcome that?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204031

[MountainHawk]

Ah, but all I said was "position", not "effectiveness". :)

According to the nerdstats, Han-Ram has ~15 runs on Holliday, ~23 on Rollins. Is his defense bad enough to overcome that?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204031
Ramirez has 13 more E than Rollins on something like 80 less chances, plus Rollins is getting to a lot more ball than Ramirez (1 in 25 chances to the SS position Rollins will get to and Ramirez won't) So yeah, I think the defense makes up 20 runs.

[Commander Keen]

Maybe a pitcher deserves it then.

:rofl:

Cy Young = Most Valuable Pitcher.

Pitchers shouldn't even be eligible for the actual MVP award.

[erosewater]

Which of these players is more MVP like?

Player A: .301/.374./485, 186H, 44 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 110 RBI, 14 SB

Player B: .293/.352/.507, 216H, 50 2B, 18 3B, 24 HR, 94 RBI, 42 SB

Player A is Holliday's road stats doubled, Player B is Rollins' road stats doubled

I don't think doubling their road numbers tells the whole story. The unbalanced schedule means it's not apples to apples. I'd like to adjust those numbers for the park factors of the different stadiums and the quality of pitching of their opponents. e.g. Holliday plays a lot of games at Petco, the worst hitters park in baseball, against a team with the best pitching staff in the league. The NL West collectively has far better pitching compared to the NL East, while the NL East overall probably has tougher parks for hitters.

FYI, VORP does adjust for the park, though not for the quality of pitching faced.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Wow, look at the RBIs!!!!! That's all I need to see.
[/sarcasm]

[Pseudolus]

Pitchers shouldn't even be eligible for the actual MVP award.Maybe they shouldn't, but they are. It shouldn't be up to the individual voters to rewrite the rules themselves and eliminate pitchers from consideration. Ditto to the ROY and players from the Japanese majors.

[Houdini]

Wow, look at the RBIs!!!!! That's all I need to see.
[/sarcasm]
You amateur. You also have to look at who plays in a bigger media market and how they played the last two weeks of the season.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

So, only Phillies and Cubbies are eligble?

[DW Simpson]

Looks like Halliday wrapped up the MVP tonight. That solves that.

[MountainHawk]

Looks like Halliday wrapped up the MVP tonight. That solves that.
The only reason that they played 4 extra innings and had to rally is because he couldn't make a play that even Pat Burrell makes.

[DW Simpson]

The only reason that they played 4 extra innings and had to rally is because he couldn't make a play that even Pat Burrell makes.

Details.

[td25er]

The only reason that they played 4 extra innings and had to rally is because he couldn't make a play that even Pat Burrell makes.

Funny how you base your MVP on one defensive play. Who had a game-tying single, game-tying triple and scored the winning run? Holliday led the league in Batting Average, RBI's (w/the help of one extra game), Hits, Total bases, Doubles, and Extra Base Hits. Sounds like MVP to me. Rollins deserves it too though.

[MountainHawk]

Funny how you base your MVP on one defensive play. Who had a game-tying single, game-tying triple and scored the winning run? Holliday led the league in Batting Average, RBI's (w/the help of one extra game), Hits, Total bases, Doubles, and Extra Base Hits. Sounds like MVP to me. Rollins deserves it too though.
I didn't base my MVP decision on one defensive play. Holliday is a serious liability in an easy defensive position, Rollins is a major asset in a difficult defensive position. As I demonstrated above, Holliday is also somewhat of a product of Coors Field ... he's hitting 70 points worse on the road than he is at home.

[Cohete009]

Vinny Castilla was on pace to be the greatest 3rd baseman of all-time....thanks to coors field.

[DW Simpson]

Who was a bloody, concussed mess after he missed crossed the plate with the winning run?

That's what the MVP voters will remember.

[MountainHawk]

Who was a bloody, concussed mess after he missed crossed the plate with the winning run?

That's what the MVP voters will remember.
The ones that didn't mail their ballots in already, anyway. A lot of them vote early, because the ballots are due today, iirc.

[td25er]

I didn't base my MVP decision on one defensive play. Holliday is a serious liability in an easy defensive position, Rollins is a major asset in a difficult defensive position. As I demonstrated above, Holliday is also somewhat of a product of Coors Field ... he's hitting 70 points worse on the road than he is at home.

Weird. Holliday is first in the NL in Zone Rating for LF, 2nd in fielding %. 5th in range factor.(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=83&sortColumn=zoneRating

Rollins is 6th in Zone Rating and Range Factor. 3rd in fieldng %. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating

I'll take .301 on the road.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Who was a bloody, concussed mess after he missed crossed the plate with the winning run?

That's what the MVP voters will remember.
The OP's question is a bit ambiguous. "Is" can mean many things. The NL MVP is who the writers SAY it is. (In Denny Green tirade voice.) The truth of who the MVP is might differ from a bunch of old coots' collective opinion.

It's hard to tell whether or not he touched the plate with his outstretched and stepped-upon fingers, since the fingers were blocked in each angle by a spiked shoe.

Holliday gets discounted by the voters due to Coors.

[DW Simpson]

The OP's question is a bit ambiguous. "Is" can mean many things. The NL MVP is who the writers SAY it is. (In Denny Green tirade voice.) The truth of who the MVP is might differ from a bunch of old coots' collective opinion.

It's hard to tell whether or not he touched the plate with his outstretched and stepped-upon fingers, since the fingers were blocked in each angle by a spiked shoe.

Holliday gets discounted by the voters due to Coors.

I'd give it to a pitcher.

[MountainHawk]

[/B]

Weird. Holliday is first in the NL in Zone Rating for LF, 2nd in fielding %. 5th in range factor.(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=83&sortColumn=zoneRating

Rollins is 6th in Zone Rating and Range Factor. 3rd in fieldng %. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating

I'll take .301 on the road.
My bad ... either I looked at the wrong year, or I remembered the numbers wrong or something. So he's a good fielder at the easy position on the field.

[yankeetripper]

There is no clear cut hands down NL MVP this year. If it goes to Rollins, Fielder or Holliday that would be a fair decision either way. If it went to Utley, Howard, Wright, Jones or a few others in the poll that would be odd but defendable.

Even though Mil didn't make it I'd still give my vote to Fielder but certainly wouldn't argue against anyone who gave it to J Roll or Holliday.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I'd give it to a pitcher.
Has there been a pitcher so dominant that it compensates for his taking four games off for every one game on?
I'm guessing not. Pitchers who have won in the past took only three games off between starts and still had to be dominant (and it helped that the game skewed toward pitchers and no batters dominated).
It's still possible that Holliday will win it, simply because of CO's last few weeks and whoever is the leader of the team, either objectively (stats) or emotionally (no stats), should get it.
Someone on PHI has a chance as well, due to their comeback.
No one on NYM carried the team, so no one is eligible.
A Cubbie? Not sure who led that team.

Prince gets name-recognition points from the voters, who know his father.

[win diesel]

The ones that didn't mail their ballots in already, anyway. A lot of them vote early, because the ballots are due today, iirc.

I'm hoping they sent in their ballots early. After he missed that ball, I was thinking JRoll had it wrapped up. He may be a good defensive LF but that play should have left them out of playoffs. Anyone on the fence might have gone with the guy who took his team to playoffs. The fact it was his error would have been the cherry on top. He was also coming close to losing batting title.

But then he hits the triple and ends up with the bloody face. Not good for last minute voters on fence for JRoll fans.

Regarding JRoll, I laugh when I hear about the 20/20/20/20 club. The whole thing is just getting the 20 triples. I mean getting 20 doubles is nothing, and if you have 20 triples you'll have 20 SBs.

[MountainHawk]

rare to have a guy hit 20 HR and have the speed for 20 3B/SB

[win diesel]

rare to have a guy hit 20 HR and have the speed for 20 3B/SB

Yeah but its not that rare for something like 21 HR and 17 3B or 20 3B and 18 HR. Get my point? It's one of those arbitrary somewhat meaningless things IMO.

Granderson just did it this year too.

[win diesel]

rare to have a guy hit 20 HR and have the speed for 20 3B/SB

Or just call it the 20 HR; 20 3B club...adding in doubles is real silly and to some extent SBs

[MountainHawk]

Yeah but its not that rare for something like 21 HR and 17 3B or 20 3B and 18 HR. Get my point? It's one of those arbitrary somewhat meaningless things IMO.

Granderson just did it this year too.
There are 5 guys that did it all time (2 this year), so I'm thinking 21/17 is fairly rare.

[The African Queen]

The OP's question is a bit ambiguous. "Is" can mean many things. The NL MVP is who the writers SAY it is. (In Denny Green tirade voice.) The truth of who the MVP is might differ from a bunch of old coots' collective opinion.

It's hard to tell whether or not he touched the plate with his outstretched and stepped-upon fingers, since the fingers were blocked in each angle by a spiked shoe.

Holliday gets discounted by the voters due to Coors.

Under what circumstances could a Rockie win the MVP? Does he have to hit 70 HR, drive in 200 and hit .400? Does he get eliminated simply becasue he plays in a hitter's ball park? Isn't it true that PNC is a better hitters ballpark (now) than Coors? Maybe Rollins stats are inflated also. Maybe Fielder only hits 35 HR if he played his home games in a different park. Where do you draw the line?

I have to change my vote from Fielder to Rollins since he walked the walk.

[MountainHawk]

Under what circumstances could a Rockie win the MVP? Does he have to hit 70 HR, drive in 200 and hit .400? Does he get eliminated simply becasue he plays in a hitter's ball park? Isn't it true that PNC is a better hitters ballpark (now) than Coors? Maybe Rollins stats are inflated also. Maybe Fielder only hits 35 HR if he played his home games in a different park. Where do you draw the line?

I have to change my vote from Fielder to Rollins since he walked the walk.
I discount anyone from Colorado, Philadelphia, or Cincinnati unless their road stats are at least similar to their home stats.

Holliday

Home: .376/.435/.722, 123 H, 28 2B, 5 3B, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 67 R, 4 SB
Away: .301/.374/.485, 93 H, 11 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 53 R, 7 SB


Rollins

Home: .300/.336/.556, 104 H, 13 2B, 11 3B, 18 HR, 47 RBI, 69 R, 20 SB
Away: .293/.352/.507, 108 H, 25 2B, 9 3B, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 70 R, 21 SB

[DoctorNo]

I discount anyone from Colorado, Philadelphia, or Cincinnati unless their road stats are at least similar to their home stats.

But if it's easier to hit in Philadelphia, then the fact that Rollins' home stats are similar to his road stats is evidence that he doesn't hit very well at home.

[MountainHawk]

But if it's easier to hit in Philadelphia, then the fact that Rollins' home stats are similar to his road stats is evidence that he doesn't hit very well at home.
Or that he hit phenomially well on the road.

[DoctorNo]

Or that he hit phenomially well on the road.

Okay. But that's not the case with Rollins.

[MountainHawk]

108 road hits probably leads the league. The .507 slugging is pretty solid too.

[yankeetripper]

MH - for all the extra base hits J Roll got, it is amazing that he is just 5th on his own team in OPS while Holliday is only 3rd in the NL

[DoctorNo]

108 road hits probably leads the league. The .507 slugging is pretty solid too.

You're going to get 108 road hits when you get as many at-bats as Rollins does.

And 0.507 may be solid, but it's not much more solid than 0.485. It does cross the imaginary "0.500" line, though, if that matters to you.

[MountainHawk]

MH - for all the extra base hits J Roll got, it is amazing that he is just 5th on his own team in OPS while Holliday is only 3rd in the NL
He's a lead off hitter that doesn't draw a lot of walks ... plus he got a ton of AB this year, I think he set the MLB record.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Let's check the gaudy stats department in order of voters' importance:
1. Holliday and Howard have 137 and 136 RBI, respectively. Virtual tie, but Holliday's get discounted for Coors' Field effect, while Howard's get discounted due to his breaking the MLB K record.
2. Fielder hit the 50 HR mark, 3 more than second place Ryan Howard.
3. Rollins has 20 triples.
4. Holliday led league in Batting Average.
5. Holliday led the league in hits.

Less gaudy, but more important:
1. Holliday is first among NL playoff players in OPS, by 36/1000 over Utley. Chipper is first, though only 17/1000 ahead of Holliday. Howard is in sixth, also 36/1000 behind Holliday.
2. (RBI-HR) / RBI chances in ABs, where RBI chances = every runner on base.
a) Holliday = 101 / 415 = 24.3%
b) Howard = 89 / 388 = 22.9%
This one discounts home run ability, which is looked at separately, in the Home Run column. Include HRs, and Howard becomes 2 points better than Holliday.
3. RBI during ABs when Runners in Scoring Position / #Runners in Scoring Position during ABs -- basically, how many runs are scored per at-bat, when there are runners in scoring position.
a) Holliday = 94 / 219 = 42.9%
b) Howard = 91 / 195 = 46.7%
This one includes home run ability, as well as a bonus for batting in any runners on first base when there are other runners in scoring position.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Under what circumstances could a Rockie win the MVP? Does he have to hit 70 HR, drive in 200 and hit .400? Does he get eliminated simply because he plays in a hitter's ball park? Isn't it true that PNC is a better hitters ballpark (now) than Coors? Maybe Rollins stats are inflated also. Maybe Fielder only hits 35 HR if he played his home games in a different park. Where do you draw the line?

I have to change my vote from Fielder to Rollins since he walked the walk.
Well, first off, that's my opinion of what the writers think. I might be wrong, but if I'm right, then the writers are wrong.
I'm not sure how much more of a hitter's park Coors is now relative to the rest of the league. For example (contrary to what the Giant Ned Colletti thinks), Dodger Stadium has become more neutral, thanks to the greedy owners' construction of seating in the formerly spacious foul territory. That equates to more foul balls, more pitches by pitchers, and subsequently more tired pitchers, and subsequently more pitching by lower quality relief pitchers.
Whether this information has passed onto the writers who vote, no one knows for sure.
Home/away split helps to determine the effect on an individual. So, looking at the gaudy stats like RBI and HRs split by home/away, the writer can see if Coors is providing an advantage that other qualified MVPer's don't get half the time.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

He's a lead off hitter that doesn't draw a lot of walks ... plus he got a ton of AB this year, I think he set the MLB record.
Holliday had more hits. Four more. In 80 fewer ABs.

[MooBeay]

For example (contrary to what the Giant Ned Colletti thinks), Dodger Stadium has become more neutral, thanks to the greedy owners' construction of seating in the formerly spacious foul territory. That equates to more foul balls, more pitches by pitchers, and subsequently more tired pitchers, and subsequently more pitching by lower quality relief pitchers.

How does what sits in foul territory equate to more foul balls? are you saying that the dodgers had an abnormally large amount of foul outs? so much so that it tires the pitchers quicker now. i have to see some stats to back this up.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

How does what sits in foul territory equate to more foul balls? are you saying that the dodgers had an abnormally large amount of foul outs? so much so that it tires the pitchers quicker now. i have to see some stats to back this up.
Um, Dodger Stadium used to have a very large foul territory. The GMs at the time used this to create teams to gain advantage. More focus on defense and pitching.
And, not just the Dodgers, but the visiting team would also have more foul outs. I'm not sure if the stats are available, though. Not without paying for them at some site.
When there is less foul territory, there are more balls foul-AND-out-of-play. When there is more foul territory there are more foul-fly-outs.
I hope this logic is easy to follow. If I have to, I'll try to find before and after pictures.

Here is 2003 ball park batting averages and ERAs.
http://www.baseball-statistics.com/Ballparks/

http://www.sportsmogul.com/baseballcd/help/StadiumEditor.htm
This is some game to create stadiums.

Foul Ground (Tiny / Small / Average / Large / Huge)
When a field has more foul ground, the fielders have more opportunities to make outs. So, large foul ground creates a "pitchers' park" with less offense.



Here is a page that shows foul ground areas over four different years.
http://www.ballparktour.com/Dodger_Stadium.html

To be fair, it's not as huge as, say, Oakland's.

From ESPN,
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2006
Runs placement versus other stadia:
2001: 30th place
2002: 27th
2003: 25th
2004: 25th
2005: 25th
Changes made in off-season to add seats in foul territory;
2006: 10th
2007: 12th

On the down side, the ESPN numbers show Oakland's placement all over the place.

Don't know who this is, but this is from 2005:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/an-in-depth-look-at-dodger-stadiums-effects/
Seems there was one set of changes made -- down the line in 2005 -- and then another change to lower the whole stadium floor, push the dugouts forward and place seating behind the new dugout in 2006.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

That's a lot, and I hope that is enough to convince you.

[MooBeay]

That's a lot, and I hope that is enough to convince you.

Maybe, but some of those links didn't work. So, were there stats on the average amount of foul outs at Dodger stadium compared to the league average. I just don't see the difference being more than 1-2 a game. And that being enough to tire out the pitching staff.

[MooBeay]

That's a lot, and I hope that is enough to convince you.

And the park factor stat is doing too much for the convincing. Camden Yards in 05 was a top 3 pitcher park and by 07 was top 6 hitter park? Did they take away the entire foul territory also?

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I'll check the links.

It is now up to you to decide. Foul territory is one piece of park effect, as the links clearly state. (You'll have to trust me, I guess.)

I already noted that Oakland seemed to jump up in a year or two, but mostly it's way down. Did you expect perfection in these stats?

I think if the team replaced two starting pitchers who were a good fit for a park with two that were not a good fit, that might change the home park effect. I'll think a little more about it.

Here's an example, albeit extreme:
First pitch: foul ball. Goes into stands instead of being caught.
Next seven pitches of same at-bat: details are not important. That's seven extra pitches that would not have been thrown to that hitter.

To me, it seemed that Dodger Stadium was a pitcher's park for all types of pitchers. The infield was said to be immaculate, so "ground ball pitchers" could do well with a competent infield behind them, and when the foul territory was large, fly-ball pitchers could do well with a few extra foul outs. Now, you don't have to believe me. But it's true, because I said it.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

All of the links work for me. You can do your own google search if you like.

[yankeetripper]

To be fair, it's not as huge as, say, Oakland's.

Ah, the Net where fould balls go to die.

[jayhawk]

Maybe, but some of those links didn't work. So, were there stats on the average amount of foul outs at Dodger stadium compared to the league average. I just don't see the difference being more than 1-2 a game. And that being enough to tire out the pitching staff.

1-2 outs/game is HUGE when you look at a pitchers ERA/WHIP. The difference in a 3.5 and 4.0 ERA for a typical starter (200 IP) is only 11 runs, or about 1 run every 3 games. Luck plays a big factor too.

There are formulas for E(ERA) that do and do not take park effects into account. A pitchers home park is clearly statisically significant.

[MooBeay]

1-2 outs/game is HUGE when you look at a pitchers ERA/WHIP. The difference in a 3.5 and 4.0 ERA for a typical starter (200 IP) is only 11 runs, or about 1 run every 3 games. Luck plays a big factor too.

There are formulas for E(ERA) that do and do not take park effects into account. A pitchers home park is clearly statisically significant.

That's grand...so are there no stats for Dodger foul outs and league average foul outs?

[yankeetripper]

That's grand...so are there no stats for Dodger foul outs and league average foul outs?

What is your point? Small children on the street can easily see that more foul territory = more chance for foul pop ups to not finding the seats and potentially becoming out = few opportunities to score runs. Is it that subtle of an argument that you need stats to understand how it works?

As for the lovely Chavez ravine historically being a pitcher's park you might want to check the career splits of this cat http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=koufasa01 who if the Dodger's hadn't moved from the LA Coliseum to Dodger stadium would probably not be motioned as the greatest lefty of all time.

link possibly already sited by DTNF but... http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/an-in-depth-look-at-dodger-stadiums-effects/

Oh and I’m sure the data you are looking for exists though it may be a pay service such as Stats Inc that could provide it.

[MooBeay]

What is your point? Small children on the street can easily see that more foul territory = more chance for foul pop ups to not finding the seats and potentially becoming out = few opportunities to score runs. Is it that subtle of an argument that you need stats to understand how it works?

As for the lovely Chavez ravine historically being a pitcher's park you might want to check the career splits of this cat http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=koufasa01 who if the Dodger's hadn't moved from the LA Coliseum to Dodger stadium would probably not be motioned as the greatest lefty of all time.

link possibly already sited by DTNF but... http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/an-in-depth-look-at-dodger-stadiums-effects/

Oh and I’m sure the data you are looking for exists though it may be a pay service such as Stats Inc that could provide it.

Rather rude. I understand the argument just fine. However, I was curious to quantify it somewhat. Since someone stated that its not a pitchers park anymore cause the pitchers get tired too fast now from all the lost foulball flyouts. Not that the score is held lower because of less opportunities. Try and follow along next time.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Rather rude. I understand the argument just fine. However, I was curious to quantify it somewhat. Since someone stated that its not a pitchers park anymore cause the pitchers get tired too fast now from all the lost foulball flyouts. Not that the score is held lower because of less opportunities. Try and follow along next time.
Ah, I speculated that one opinion. One of many reasons.
I mean, if the first pitch is fly-ball-fouled out of play to a formerly not-out-of-play area, and the plate appearance turns into seven more pitches, well, that's seven pitches better served in another plate appearance, instead of the pitcher getting pulled earlier and letting some middling reliever tank.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

http://saltandice.blogspot.com/2005/03/just-baseball-dilettante_17.html


From 1999-2004, there were 906 foul outs (418 by Dodger hitters, 488 by opponents) at Dodger Stadium. DS had a 1.25 park factor for foul outs. The average ballpark saw 730 foul outs. Oh yeah - this data is with interleague play removed.

[yankeetripper]

Rather rude. I understand the argument just fine. However, I was curious to quantify it somewhat. Since someone stated that its not a pitchers park anymore cause the pitchers get tired too fast now from all the lost foulball flyouts. Not that the score is held lower because of less opportunities. Try and follow along next time.

I don't believe that was DTNFs whole argument but I would agree it is one contributing factor. More so than a picther getting tired though and being pulled early in a game for middle reliver (though that's some of it also) I would say the potential for a big inning increases with number of pitches thrown in an inning. Especially in DTNFs example of a foul ball that would have been caught in old configuration leading to 7 extra pitches in that inning because the out was not recorded in new configuration.

I believe there are studies that after x# of pitches in an inning (where x is somewhere around 20) most if not all picthers are dratically less effective for the remainder of the inning, though I have no link to such a study. Something about # of "high stress pitches".

[MooBeay]

http://saltandice.blogspot.com/2005/03/just-baseball-dilettante_17.html

Awesome stat finder. Does that say there is one more flyout at Dodger stadium per 4 games than the league average?

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Awesome stat finder. Does that say there is one more flyout at Dodger stadium per 4 games than the league average?
It says "foul out." Yes. Your point being that it's not statistically significant?

[MooBeay]

It says "foul out." Yes. Your point being that it's not statistically significant?

No, just making sure I read it right. I definately think its statistically significant when it comes to cutting into opportunities. How significant? I don;t know.

Still not sold on the tired factor, being enough to sway the park from pitcher heaven to hitter friendly.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

No, just making sure I read it right. I definately think its statistically significant when it comes to cutting into opportunities. How significant? I don;t know.

Still not sold on the tired factor, being enough to sway the park from pitcher heaven to hitter friendly.
Well, it went more to neutral, I think. (If my math is correct, it would slightly push all parks toward neutral, I think, all other things equal, since it was down near the most pitcher friendly park for some time.)
Interesting note: when, the mounds were lowered in 1969, Dodger Stadium moved home plate 10 feet closer to center field (fences stayed where they were, resulting in a shorter cetner-field distance), so the changes countered each other somewhat.
Anywho, the point of all this was that Giant GM Colletti said that he's still focusing on pitching and defense because he thinks Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park, when in fact it has gone neutral. Also, I wrote that when pondering whether Coors Field is STILL as much a hitter's park as it has been. They're humidifying the balls, for example. How much this is affecting hitting remains to be seen. The ESPN page I linked seemed a bit inadequate, showing only a few offensive categories (Runs, for example), but had recent history.