Your Official Milwaukee Brewers Thread

[MyKenk]

You barely won the wild card WITH CC and Sheets. You've already admittedyou would be worse without them. By trilogism, you won't compete for the wild card.

Go ahead and make more illogical arguments if you want to. The truth has been spoken. Brewers is dead.
Okay, you win :roll: I'll stop cheering for my team because they don't have a chance.

No, I'm just wondering why you keep banging your head against a wall when deep in your brain you know the Brewers aren't going to win in 2009.
I want my team to make financially sound decisions that won't handcuff the team in the future, as a trade for Melky Cabrera and Kei Igawa would. I understand that each season doesn't exist in a vaccuum. I'm looking to the future.

[Rampage]

You barely won the wild card WITH CC and Sheets. You've already admittedyou would be worse without them. By trilogism, you won't compete for the wild card.

Go ahead and make more illogical arguments if you want to. The truth has been spoken. Brewers is dead.

The Brewers have a lot of young players that should still be developing for the better. Time will tell. A healthy Gallardo easily replaces Sheets. The Brewers then have to replace a half season of CC and a horrible closer. If they find the right parts, there is no reason they can't compete. If management shuts it down and doesn't spend any money, it's another story.

The Twins were in contention all year despite losing Johan. Your logic hurts my head.

[MyKenk]

Kelly Johnson for Corey Hart didn't happen. Why the hell not, Stache?

[MyKenk]

Cameron deal officially dead. Posters on JSONLINE still retarded.

[MyKenk]

Brewers close to signing a "left handed outfielder."

Who?

:tup:
Garret Anderson
Milton Bradley
Adam Dunn
Bobby Abreu
Ken Griffey Jr.


:exams:
Cliff Floyd
Luis Gonzalez
Jeff Salazar
Jim Edmonds
Corey Patterson
Scott Podsednik
Trot Nixon
Brad Wilkerson

:shrug:
Greg Norton
Mark Kotsay
Eric Hinske

[yankeetripper]

Cameron deal officially dead.
Does that mean it will be announced tomorrow?

[MyKenk]

:swear: Probably.

Maybe the yank'sll take him for straight cash?

[Slainte]

Drumroll please....

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/36391459.html

Trot Nixon and Chris Duffy

[MyKenk]

:party:?

[Slainte]

:shrug: Not a lot of downside.

Or is that emoticon simulating how they tested out Nixon's groin/hernia -- making him dance like that? Even better if he had to hold a balloon. :)

[MyKenk]

But think of the upside! This guy is HUGE!

http://www.duffnstuffracing.com/duffman.jpg

[Slainte]

:lol:

[Warrior04]

Those are just minor league deals. I wouldn't be surprised if Kotsay or Hinske got signed as well.

[MyKenk]

I would. What would they do? Kotsay's gonna cost too much, also.

[MyKenk]

Quote from CC, claiming pressure in Milwaukee > pressure in New York.

"If I had gone back to Milwaukee, they would have been looking to me to win every single game. I expect to win every single game here, too, but there would have been more immense pressure there because they wouldn't have been able to put the pieces around me to help me win. I think I can get that here....

If I had went somewhere else, they would have expected me to do what I did the last second half in Milwaukee and you know that's kinda unrealistic."

So... he went to New York for... lowered expectations?

Right...

CC... everyone knows why you signed with the Yankees... don't really need to skirt the issue...or flat out lie to us.

[MyKenk]

Ken Macha is the man in Milwaukee. Manager No. 17 in the franchise’s storied history and he’s already guaranteed to be better than Davey Lopes and Jerry Royster combined if he shows up to work on the first day and his jersey isn’t on backwards.

:lol:

[MyKenk]

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/wp-content/images_07_08/maas/CC_NY_Press.jpg

Srsly?

:lol:

[MyKenk]

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/wp-content/images_07_08/maas/juliobugs_1.jpg
History has shown us that closers aren’t born, but instead manufactured through a taxing gauntlet of trial and error, baptism by fire and at least one other overly epic cliché I cannot immediately produce at this time. Yes, the titular tagging of “closer” is a difficult one to obtain, and once gained, an even more difficult one to hold on to.

Look at your favorite team’s closer of the moment (No, I’m not talking to you Yankees, Mets and Angels fans!) and more than not, you’ll see a short-lived flavor of the week – lightning in a bottle – when compared to the longevity hurlers like Mariano Rivera, K-Rod and Billy Wagner. Much like the concept of a feudal leader or, better yet, a Highlander, each closer will one day lose his job along with the globs of media jizzum and nifty entrance music (usually Nu Metal) that accompanies this overly exalted role to the next big thing.

But what happens to the now powerless shell of a relief God, the husk of rocket-balling righteousness whence his fall from grace is orchestrated? Jorge Julio is what happens.

Though some move on to renewed success as closers elsewhere (see: Lidge, Brad and Sedgwik, Kira) and others assume trusted roles with the same team (see: Lyon, Brandon and Madson, Ryan) – most closer expatriates will be exiled to uncertain careers full of ridicule, shame and undue hatred. And as a fan of an organization that employed Derrick Turnbow last season, some of this is deserved.

But sometimes it’s not.

I applaud Brewers GM Doug Melvin’s decision to take a flier on Julio in 2009. When he’s going well (it comes and goes, I’ll admit), he’s a legitimately good pitcher. Prone to collapse? Yes. On his last leg? Possibly. On the fast track to be Milwaukee’s closer? Jesus balls, I hope not. But a troubled hurler with the chance to be a solid middle relief or even setup man? I really think he could be.

It helps my gut that Julio is coming off a great – albeit short – stint with Atlanta that found him going 12.1 frames with just one earned run surrendered (.71 ERA). Plus, for a 29-year-old with his service time and 99 career saves, he’s a flat out bargain at one-year/$950K. Even in his damaged state, he averages almost a strikeout per inning. The deal could ultimately be worth as much as $1.9M with performance incentives, but that equates to less than $2M for an absolutely lights out reprise of a pitching force.

At worst, Jorge Julio resumes his downward spiral and Milwaukee is out some skrill and drops a close game or two early on. At best… who knows, I hope to find out.

[GuineaPig]

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/wp-content/images_07_08/maas/CC_NY_Press.jpg

Srsly?

:lol:

johan or cc.... I would probably take either.

[Warrior04]

I really did not want to believe that Texeira and Sabathia would end up with the same team and we'd only get a 2nd rounder for Sabathia. It just adds to the burn.

[MyKenk]

New Years Eve...time for a bunch of memories right? Sports stories for the year. Remembering the good times.

The number 1 sports story in WI for the 2008 year was the Milwaukee Brewers. It's as simple as that. 3 million fans showed up at Miller Park. The team signed it's franchise player to a team record contract. They team traded for the reigning best pitcher in the American League...and he proceeded to dominate everybody in sight. The team made the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. Do you remember where you were on Sunday September 28th? I do. I was in LAX for Oktoberfest and we drove home Saturday night at 230am...I got back to my house on the Eastside at 6am and slept until noon. I woke up and watched the Brewers play. When Braun hit the home run in the bottom of the 8th I jumped up, screamed at the top of my lungs and ran out of my house jumping around. I then let out such a yelp on Locust Street that some guy a few houses down came out wondering what was wrong. To me...following that team for 6 months...going to 20+ games, writing a freaking blog about them, watching basically every INNING the last month, and have them make the playoffs was one of the best feelings I've ever had. I know there are thousands of others in the state who felt/still feel the exact same way.

Well our pals over at the Journal didn't feel the same way. In some sort of vote, they decided that the best SPORTS Story of 2008 was the Brett Favre DRAMA (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/etc/36914774.html). Downright traveshamockery if you ask me. The drama of Favre. The entire saga. The trade to the Jets. Seriously, 10-20 years from now...ask yourself...if you are sitting around having beers with some buddies and you randomly start talking about 2008...what are you going to remember? Are you going to say: "Oh yeah...2008...that's the year that some schmuck compared Favre's plane ride back to WI to Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon (which is one of the most ridiculous and asinine comparisons I've ever heard...but I digress) man...Favre...what a story."

I hope not. I hope the immediate response out of your mouth will be: "2008? The Brewers! Miller Park was rocking! Every night no matter where you were in the state the game was on TV and people were following every pitch! What a great time!"

To reiterate: the Favre retirement? BIG story. Possibly the biggest story of the year (had it been left like that). The Favre saga...the BS drama...all that stuff that happened when he came back killed whatever sentimental story line there was. It became a blaming game, people pointing figures, people biting their lips as the most storied Packer of all time trashed the entire Packer franchise and city of Green Bay.

Great work Journal. Way to give credit for a story in remembrance of a man where no credit is due

[MyKenk]

Musing:

Pitcher's leverage indexed stats. First for 2008, then for 2009.

BA OBP SLG
Hi 0.244 0.268 0.370
Md 0.292 0.372 0.464
Lo 0.328 0.388 0.556

Career:

BA OBP SLG
Hi 0.272 0.322 0.403
Md 0.276 0.339 0.447
Lo 0.292 0.350 0.476

Sound like a potential closer candidate???

[MyKenk]

Im a rolling thunder, a pouring rain
Im comin on like a hurricane
My lightnings flashing across the sky
Youre only young but youre gonna die

:rock2:

[GuineaPig]

you guys going to sign hoffman or what?

[Rampage]

Not likely. I expect he'll sign with the Dodgers as he prefers not to move his family.

[MyKenk]

If he wants to close, he'll sign with the Brewers, if he wants to stay in Cali. and doesn't mind being a lower paid set-up guy, he'll sign with the Dodgers.

[MyKenk]

Why does Gagne cost 10M on a 1 year deal, yet Hoffman's offer from the dodgers is just over 4M?

[GuineaPig]

If he wants to close, he'll sign with the Brewers, if he wants to stay in Cali. and doesn't mind being a lower paid set-up guy, he'll sign with the Dodgers.

4:11pm: Jon Heyman believes the Brewers are making a stronger move (than the dodgers) for Hoffman.

[MyKenk]

Well, they have to, you know how hard it is to convince someone to go to Milwaukee vs. Southern California?

[MyKenk]

Im a rolling thunder, a pouring rain
Im comin on like a hurricane
My lightnings flashing across the sky
Youre only young but youre gonna die

:rock2:

I won't take no prisoners, won't spare no lives
Nobody's putting up a fight
I got my bell, I'm gonna take you to hell
I'm gonna get ya, Satan get ya

:guitarwo: :band2:

[GuineaPig]

Well, they have to, you know how hard it is to convince someone to go to Milwaukee vs. Southern California?

I would probably pick milwaukee, but that's just me I guess...

[Rampage]

Not likely. I expect he'll sign with the Dodgers as he prefers not to move his family.

I'm happy to report that it looks lke I was wrong.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3818472

[MyKenk]

:party:

[MyKenk]

With Shouse gone, #51 is readily available. Probably was the deal-maker.

[MyKenk]

6M Guaranteed, incentives up to 7.5 Million.

[Rampage]

6M Guaranteed, incentives up to 7.5 Million.

Any news on an option for 2010? The ESPN article mentioned a possible option.

[MyKenk]

I'm sure it's a club option, possibly a vesting option.

[MyKenk]

Yep, confirmed to be a club option.

[Rampage]

Sounds like a good deal to me. Should be an improvement over last year.

[MyKenk]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffKW-RLA9D8&eurl=http://ballhype.com/video/video_hell_s_bells_classic_trevor_hoffman_entrance/&feature=player_embedded

[Warrior04]

Finally some good news. This has been a rough offseason.

Also, did I miss something? I didn't think Shouse signed anywhere yet.

[MyKenk]

No, he hasn't yet. He won't be back though.

[MyKenk]

Pretty much set:

C Kendall
1B Fielder
2B Weeks
3B Hall
SS Hardy
LF Braun
RF Hart
CF Cameron

IF Lamb
OF Bourgious
IF McGehee
C Rivera
IF/OF Nelson

SP Gallardo
SP Parra
SP McClung
SP Suppan
SP Bush

SU Julio

CL Hoffman

RP Villenueva
RP Coffey
RP Riske
RP Stetter
RP Swindle

[Warrior04]

Not a bad list. I'm guessing there will be a few changes.

Who is the backup at 2B and SS? Aren't McGehee and Lamb 3B only? If so I doubt both will be on the final 25 man roster. I could see Iribarren taking the place of one of them.

RP Eddie Morlan was picked in the Rule 5 draft and will probably be on the roster as well.

[Warrior04]

You can probably have a little leeway with your roster as well. A pitcher can always be stashed on the DL for a few weeks with "Shoulder Stiffness" or some other made up injury.

[MyKenk]

Not a bad list. I'm guessing there will be a few changes.

Who is the backup at 2B and SS? Aren't McGehee and Lamb 3B only? If so I doubt both will be on the final 25 man roster. I could see Iribarren taking the place of one of them.

RP Eddie Morlan was picked in the Rule 5 draft and will probably be on the roster as well.

Morlan's not making the team out of spring training.

[Warrior04]

Also, you don't think Gwynn will be a backup OF this year?

[MyKenk]

I don't think Gwynn will be with the organization. IIRC, he's out of options, and he's just not good enough yet. He's ok defensively, but provides nothing at the plate.

That said, i wouldn't be surprised if he has Bourgieous' spot, but I'd be surprised if we couldn't get a little something for him instead.

[MyKenk]

Yep, confirmed to be a club option.


Orrr.. not. No option for 2010.

[MyKenk]

The Journal Sentinal Blog Commenting idiots:

"if cam was the reason hoffamn came... then hoffamn and cam doubleteaming peavey to break his no trade clause would be AMAZING!!!!!!!"

:rofl:

[Slainte]

Doubleteaming what in the who now?

:oops:

:rofl:

[MyKenk]

hoffamn & cam doubleteaming peavey...

:co:

[GuineaPig]

the hoffman deal was a good one. The cubs should have tried harder to land him. Still, I think the brewers are going to be down this year and if it gets bad I think they will pawn off prince midway through the season.

[MyKenk]

See, people keep saying that, and aside from a half a year of Sabathia (which is a big loss), it's a better team than last year. The kids are a year older, we have a much improved bullpen, and Gallardo fills Sheets shoes easily.

[GuineaPig]

See, people keep saying that, and aside from a half a year of Sabathia (which is a big loss), it's a better team than last year. The kids are a year older, we have a much improved bullpen, and Gallardo fills Sheets shoes easily.

you may be right. I mean you know your baseball that's for sure. I don't have the faith in your rotation that you do though. The kids being another year older might be an aspect people overlook though. You forget just how young braun and those guys are.

[GuineaPig]

At least one of Cafardo's sources thinks Prince Fielder would make a lot of sense in Boston. Clay Buchholz could be a starting point if these talks were to start.

[MyKenk]

Clay Bucholz and 2 other decent-good pitching prospects, maybe.

[MyKenk]

Brewers sign Hardy to 1 yr, 4.65MM deal.

[GuineaPig]

brewers no longer interested in adam dunn. you think a guy with that high of obp who hits 40 hr/year would gather more interest :-?

[MyKenk]

:shrug: We were really only "linked" to him when we were trading Cameron away. We don't have a position for Dunn.

[GuineaPig]

just between the brewer fans and the cub fans on this board and me - I want it to be april already this off season was boring.

[Sweet Lou]

just between the brewer fans and the cub fans on this board and me - I want it to be april already this off season was boring.

The Cubs have had one of the most active offseasons. You can argue about how much better theyve gotten, but theyve certainly been active.

[MyKenk]

I just received an urgent email from the Milwaukee Brewers, announcing the autograph schedule for their "Brewers On Deck" event scheduled for January 24.

Along with the schedule, they announced the fee for various player/coach/announcer autographs. I'll sum them up here - you'll have to find the autograph schedule on your own, because I'm not repeating it here.

For $25 each, you can get the following autographs:

Ryan Braun
Trevor Hoffman
Bob Uecker

For $10 each, you can get the following autographs:

J.J. Hardy
Yovani Gallardo
Corey Hart (impressed that he's showing up, given that he hates the fans)
Tony Gwynn (I'm assuming this is Jr., though it wasn't stated)
Dave Bush
Jeff Suppan (he better not be getting to keep this money)
Carlos Villanueva
Rickie Weeks
Mike Cameron
Ken Macha
Todd Coffey and Manny Parra (unclear whether this is a package deal of if it's $10 for each? Either way it's a steal.)
Mike Rivera and Eduardo Morlan (ditto)

For free, you can get the following autographs:

Mat Gamel
Angel Salome
Taylor Green
Casey McGehee
Mark DeFelice
Brad Nelson
Vinny Rottino
R.J. Swindle
Tim Dillard
Mitch Stetter

Comments:

1. Notice anybody missing? I'm absolutely shocked that Prince won't be in the house.

2. The fees for autographs are telling. Yo Gallardo, Manny Parra, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, you have not arrived yet, according to the marketing department.

3. Given the $10 fee, how long are the lines going to be for Todd Coffee, Mike Rivera and Ed Morlan?

4. Kudos for Cameron showing up, after the Brewers spent the winter trying to trade him to New York. Kudos also to Corey Hart, or perhaps this is part of a mandatory program that the Brewers are putting Hart through to try to make him at least pretend to like the fans.

5. Of all the free autographs, I'd go after Mat Gamel or Mitch Stetter. I want to say something to Stetter to see if he's as crazy as he appears.

6. I'd pay at least $10 for a Seth McClung autograph, again for the off chance that he would say something insane. Too bad he's not available.

[Wasp]

just between the brewer fans and the cub fans on this board and me - I want it to be april already this off season was boring.

The offseason was boring, and yet you have over 300 posts in here. :popcorn:

[Wasp]

And you have no chance to make the playoffs.

The cubs will win the division and the wild card will not come from the central.

[MyKenk]

And you have no chance to make the playoffs.

The cubs will win the division and the wild card will not come from the central.

Most teams don't make the playoffs.

And why not a WC from the central. It's the weakest division, and the most in-division games. 2 good teams in the central can beat up on the weak teams much more than the teams in other divisions can.

See 2008.

[Wasp]

See 2008.

In 2008 you had Sheets and Sabathia and had to count on the Mets imploding to sneak in the back door.

You'll be eliminated from contention by the all star break.

[Wasp]

Most teams don't make the playoffs.

And why not a WC from the central. It's the weakest division, and the most in-division games. 2 good teams in the central can beat up on the weak teams much more than the teams in other divisions can.

See 2008.

And I don't see how you argue that there are two good teams in the central.

There is one good team. Cubs.

Then given Milwaukee lost Sheets and Sabathia you have them taking a step back to be on par with Houston and St Louis.

Cubs, Cards, Stros and Brewers is not weaker than the other divisions or in line with your saying two good teams.

Most likely the WC is NY or Philly.

[MyKenk]

Milwaukee lost Sheets & gained Gallardo (most likely a wash).

Milwaukee lost 1/2 a year of CC.

Milwaukee gained a real bullpen.

I'd say the Brewers are about the same as last year, but then again, we've been over this time and time again.

[MyKenk]

Please, stop saying we should trade Fielder for pitching and sign Dunn to play first base. Am I the only one who can see how retarded that sounds???

[Ernie Mac]

Milwaukee lost Sheets & gained Gallardo (most likely a wash).

Milwaukee lost 1/2 a year of CC.

Milwaukee gained a real bullpen.

I'd say the Brewers are about the same as last year, but then again, we've been over this time and time again.


Hoffman 30 saves replaces Torres with 28. Julio and RJ Swindle? Please

CC was 11-2 in that half year.

Brewers will be worse next year.

[MyKenk]

Hoffman 30 saves replaces Torres with 28. Julio and RJ Swindle? Please

CC was 11-2 in that half year.

Brewers will be worse next year.
Yes, but not worse to the point where we dip below 2nd in the division. Last I checked, the Cubs didn't get much better, if at all, either.

Julio is good, Swindle is good, both better than who they're replacing.

And Hoffman would have gotten 40-45 saves on a real team. The Padres didn't even win that many games, did they? He saved > 50% of their wins?

[Ernie Mac]

Yes, but not worse to the point where we dip below 2nd in the division. Last I checked, the Cubs didn't get much better, if at all, either.

Julio is good, Swindle is good, both better than who they're replacing.

And Hoffman would have gotten 40-45 saves on a real team. The Padres didn't even win that many games, did they? He saved > 50% of their wins?


This Swindle? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8292 ERA 7.7 in 3 games in 2008.

[MyKenk]

Nice sample size. A guy that blows through 2 levels of the minors (throwing to batters he shouldn't have been pitching to) with a sub 2 ERA can have a shot at being the 2nd lefty specialist on my team anyday.

[GuineaPig]

dear brewer fans 2 questions
1) what % chance do you give to the Yankees signing sheets?
2) will you be pretty mad if they do?

[MyKenk]

1. ~25%
2. nope.

[Warrior04]

1. I could be wrong, but I remember reading somewhere that MLB rules allow teams to only sign 3 Class A free agents and they already have Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett. If this is the case, then I'd put it at 0%. Otherwise, somewhere around 10-20%

2. If I'm right with #1 I'd be pretty mad because they'd be cheating. Otherwise, no. He was a soldier in the organization for a long time and deserves to get his due.

[Warrior04]

Nevermind. That only applies if they didn't lose any FAs themselves. I think they did.

[MyKenk]

it seems that the Type A/B free agent quota depends on the number of Type A/Bs who file. If 62 or fewer such players file (which is possible) then each team will have a quota of three Type A or B signings. Regardless of that, teams are allowed to sign as many Type A/Bs as they lose.

[MyKenk]

Jim Powell's going to the Braves, making it necessary to find someone else who'll tolerate Uecker for a couple years.

[Ultimate Anyone?]

Jim Powell's going to the Braves, making it necessary to find someone else who'll tolerate Uecker for a couple years.

Really? *sigh* I liked Powell (but of course I like Uecker as well, who I know isn't your favorite...).

[MyKenk]

I like Powell as well, and I think, when they're both mic'd, that it's a great broadcast. My issue is with when Uecker's left alone... Powell seemed to, idk, keep him in reality?

Stupid large market teams! :swear:

[Ultimate Anyone?]

I like Powell as well, and I think, when they're both mic'd, that it's a great broadcast. My issue is with when Uecker's left alone... Powell seemed to, idk, keep him in reality?

Okay, maybe we aren't as far apart as I thought. :tup: (Of course, some of Uecker's solo ramblings can be fun as well if the game's not going well....)

I can actually see myself catching a few more Braves games if Powell's doing the radio - I know I listen to a fair amount of Cubs games because of Pat Hughes.

[GuineaPig]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/brewers-working.html

Brewers working out a multiyear deal with fielder. That would make me happy (if I were a brewer fan).

How many years do you give a guy that is pushing 3 bills? To bad brewers aren't in the AL.

[MyKenk]

2 years, 20 M.

[Sweet Lou]

2 years, 20 M.

If he waited until he was a free agent, couldn't he get a longer/bigger deal? Does he like it in Milwaukee that much?

[Warrior04]

Fielder has to be in Milwaukee (or at least his contract is controlled by Milwaukee in arbitration) for the next two years anyway. He wouldn't lose anything (or really gain anything) by signing a two year deal.

Edit: Actually, Milwaukee controls his contract for the next three years. Fielder would gain a little bit of security and the Brewers wouldn't have to deal with salary arbitration next year.

[MyKenk]

If he waited until he was a free agent, couldn't he get a longer/bigger deal? Does he like it in Milwaukee that much?
Like Warrior said, he's stuck here anyway, and 20M over the next two years is probably close to or greater than his arby numbers anyway...

[Slainte]

20M over the next two years is probably close to or greater than his arby numbers anyway...

I thought Prince was vegetarian? Still, that's a lot of roast beef sammiches!




Sorry -- carry on.

[MyKenk]

:lol:

[MyKenk]

Milwaukee locked up Big Poppa for 2 years - $18 million. The bigger news is the JS blog title: "Fielder Passed His Physical." Apparently, they didn't test for: Obesity, cholesterol, heart disease, a bad back, bad knees, gluttony, and unknown gastric bypass surgery.

[Da Bears!]

Milwaukee locked up Big Poppa for 2 years - $18 million. The bigger news is the JS blog title: "Fielder Passed His Physical." Apparently, they didn't test for: Obesity, cholesterol, heart disease, a bad back, bad knees, gluttony, and unknown gastric bypass surgery.

Also....weak arms.

[MyKenk]

T-rex arms?

[Da Bears!]

Absolutely

[Warrior04]

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/images/2004/10/14/M9A5BrUf.jpg

[MyKenk]

Do his stance a little justice, will ya?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3214/2835961223_3c44082f6f.jpg?v=0

[MyKenk]

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/wp-content/images_07_08/maas/BFJ7MYJY21.jpg

The Brewers and pre-teen utility man Craig Counsell reached an agreement yet again, as a one-year/$1M contract was made official after a team pediatrician gave the OK on Monday.

The persistent tike hit just .226 with 14 RBI in over 100 games last season, but drew 46 walks in limited time and proved a capable reserve option at three infield positions. Though powerless and almost embarrassing to watch, Counsell also offers Milwaukee a much-needed left-handed bat.

I’m personally sick of Craig Counsell. I was actually glad to see Milwaukee decline his $3.4M option earlier this offseason. I was ready to bid a final farewell to MLB’s lightest-hitting geeky middle school student, but alas; fate, familiarity and a soft economy hath delivered a reunion.

Aside from the previously stated positives of dealing with another year of Counsell’s tiresome bat flailing, the mere $1M price tag to acquire the seasoned two-time World Series champion makes the acquisition significantly more palatable – at least until one factors in the incentives that come with inking a “player” or Counsell’s variety…

I’ve obtained a draft of, what I believe to be Craig Counsell’s contract, and would like to share some of the less publicized stipulations of the agreement:

1. Unlimited Big League Chew and soft drinks during games (non-caffeinated clause for weekday night games).
2. Autographed “Twilight” movie poster.
3. A team-employee to serve as a personal advisor in matters of kissing girls, standing up to bullies and long division.
4. A new Webkinz to serve as company during long roadtrips.
5. The complete leather-bound “Goosebumps” book series by R.L. Stine.
6. Another team employee to assist in all monster-checking and spider-squishing needs as they arise.
7. A team fossil hunting expedition and pizza party within a week of his August 21 birthday.
8. Optional bereavement leave for Tuesday Boy Scout meetings, Friday karate lessons.
9. Permission to hit right-handed in batting practice once “just for fun.”
10. Permanent “shotgun” on team bus.
11. Periodic limo rides to and from mall arcade.
12. First “dibs” on any and all pet-like creatures that venture on playing field during games.
13. 10 p.m. bedtime, 11 on weekends!
14. No expectations to perform well (Carried over from previous two Brewers stints).

All things considered, that’s still not too hefty a toll for an experienced player with a versatile glove and well-liked clubhouse presence. Though I was ready for Craigers to fly the coop once and for all, I’ll try to cherish this opportunity to watch his transformation from awkward teenager to adult.

If anything, I’ll have a scapegoat.

[Sweet Lou]

If anything, I’ll have a scapegoat.


You would never cheat on Rickie Weeks like that

[actuaryrunner]

I’ve obtained a draft of, what I believe to be Craig Counsell’s contract, and would like to share some of the less publicized stipulations of the agreement:

1. Unlimited Big League Chew and soft drinks during games (non-caffeinated clause for weekday night games).
2. Autographed “Twilight” movie poster.
3. A team-employee to serve as a personal advisor in matters of kissing girls, standing up to bullies and long division.
4. A new Webkinz to serve as company during long roadtrips.
5. The complete leather-bound “Goosebumps” book series by R.L. Stine.
6. Another team employee to assist in all monster-checking and spider-squishing needs as they arise.
7. A team fossil hunting expedition and pizza party within a week of his August 21 birthday.
8. Optional bereavement leave for Tuesday Boy Scout meetings, Friday karate lessons.
9. Permission to hit right-handed in batting practice once “just for fun.”
10. Permanent “shotgun” on team bus.
11. Periodic limo rides to and from mall arcade.
12. First “dibs” on any and all pet-like creatures that venture on playing field during games.
13. 10 p.m. bedtime, 11 on weekends!
14. No expectations to perform well (Carried over from previous two Brewers stints).

There wasn't anything about the right to play in the sand with Ryan Theriot and Aaron Miles before and after (and maybe even during) Cubs games? Boras would have gotten him that...

[MyKenk]

http://obamiconme.pastemagazine.com/entries/images/18/94/530918/original_image.gif?1233267343

[BuckyBadger]

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/wp-content/images_07_08/maas/BFJ7MYJY21.jpg

The Brewers and pre-teen utility man Craig Counsell reached an agreement yet again, as a one-year/$1M contract was made official after a team pediatrician gave the OK on Monday.

The persistent tike hit just .226 with 14 RBI in over 100 games last season, but drew 46 walks in limited time and proved a capable reserve option at three infield positions. Though powerless and almost embarrassing to watch, Counsell also offers Milwaukee a much-needed left-handed bat.

I’m personally sick of Craig Counsell. I was actually glad to see Milwaukee decline his $3.4M option earlier this offseason. I was ready to bid a final farewell to MLB’s lightest-hitting geeky middle school student, but alas; fate, familiarity and a soft economy hath delivered a reunion.

Aside from the previously stated positives of dealing with another year of Counsell’s tiresome bat flailing, the mere $1M price tag to acquire the seasoned two-time World Series champion makes the acquisition significantly more palatable – at least until one factors in the incentives that come with inking a “player” or Counsell’s variety…

I’ve obtained a draft of, what I believe to be Craig Counsell’s contract, and would like to share some of the less publicized stipulations of the agreement:

1. Unlimited Big League Chew and soft drinks during games (non-caffeinated clause for weekday night games).
2. Autographed “Twilight” movie poster.
3. A team-employee to serve as a personal advisor in matters of kissing girls, standing up to bullies and long division.
4. A new Webkinz to serve as company during long roadtrips.
5. The complete leather-bound “Goosebumps” book series by R.L. Stine.
6. Another team employee to assist in all monster-checking and spider-squishing needs as they arise.
7. A team fossil hunting expedition and pizza party within a week of his August 21 birthday.
8. Optional bereavement leave for Tuesday Boy Scout meetings, Friday karate lessons.
9. Permission to hit right-handed in batting practice once “just for fun.”
10. Permanent “shotgun” on team bus.
11. Periodic limo rides to and from mall arcade.
12. First “dibs” on any and all pet-like creatures that venture on playing field during games.
13. 10 p.m. bedtime, 11 on weekends!
14. No expectations to perform well (Carried over from previous two Brewers stints).

All things considered, that’s still not too hefty a toll for an experienced player with a versatile glove and well-liked clubhouse presence. Though I was ready for Craigers to fly the coop once and for all, I’ll try to cherish this opportunity to watch his transformation from awkward teenager to adult.

If anything, I’ll have a scapegoat.

:lolup:

[Sweet Lou]

http://obamiconme.pastemagazine.com/entries/images/18/94/530918/original_image.gif?1233267343

Wasnt that off Bob Howry?.....Then it doesnt count.

[MyKenk]

Brewers avoid arbitration with Weeks.

In related news: :yawn:

[MyKenk]

Although, I find it interesting that the official site has reported that the brewers were done spending money about 43 times so far.

We get it.

Or are you trying to lie wayyy too hard?

[MyKenk]

According to a press release, the Brewers acquired pitcher Chase Wright from the Yankees for outfielder/catcher Eric Fryer.

Wright, who turns 26 in a few days, spent most of 2008 with the Yankees' Double A and Triple A clubs. He posted strong ERAs and strong groundball rates, but low strikeout rates as well. In their 2007 Handbook, Baseball America said Wright had "solid stuff" and "profiles best at the back of a rotation." He was designated for assignment when Andy Pettitte was signed. Fryer, 23, hit .335/.407/.506 in 104 games at Low A.

According to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090204&content_id=3797480&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp&partnerId=rss_mlb), the Brewers also added reliever Ramiro Mendoza on a minor league deal. Mendoza's last useful big league stint was in '04 with the Red Sox; he racked up a lot of innings for the Yankees in the late 90s/early 2000s.

[yankeetripper]

Wright may or may not catch on at the back end of an NL rotataion and Fryer looks like organizational filler. Considering Wright was DFA'd a few days ago I think this works for the both teams. :shrug:

[MyKenk]

I agree. Both teams looking to get lucky.

[Cannonball]

From the Ben Sheets news and notes section on Yahoo sports:

Feb 5 Adam McCalvy and T.R. Sullivan, of MLB.com, report free-agent SP Ben Sheets (Brewers) may need to undergo elbow surgery to fix the torn flexor tendon in his throwing elbow. The Milwaukee Brewers may be asked to pay for the procedure, according to assistant general manager Gord Ash. The Texas Rangers reached an agreement with Sheets on a two-year deal last week and only a physical stood in the way of finalizing the deal. However, the whole situation changed when it was discovered that Sheets may require surgery. The team could still pursue him with a deal that would allow him to rehab, but it does not appear that the team will head in that direction.



Feb 5 Sheets had a two year deal with the Rangers fall apart when it was determined during his physical that he may need surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, according to the Rangers official web site.
Recommendation: Sheets could have accepted Milwaukee's offer of arbitration and made at least $11 million in 2009. Now it's looking like Sheets will be lucky to find any team to take him unless it's on a very incentive laden contract.

HA HA!!! GOOD RIDDANCE, YOU A$$HOLE!!!!!

[Rampage]

Sheets to undergo elbow surgery. Not sure if this was known to those teams that he has been talking to.

[yankeetripper]

On the bight side at least he didn't accept arbitration.

On the down side I guess this means no compensation pick.

[MyKenk]

HA HA!!! GOOD RIDDANCE, YOU A$$HOLE!!!!!
:roll:

Yeah, now we a) get nothing for him, and b) get to pay for him to have surgery.

Maybe he'll join the team for the playoff push in June.

[Cannonball]

:roll:

Yeah, now we a) get nothing for him, and b) get to pay for him to have surgery.

Maybe he'll join the team for the playoff push in June.

Yeah, it sucks that we have to pay for his surgery, but better that than having that jerk back for $11 million. I admit it: I can't stand him (though I would take him back on an incentive-laden deal, which is all he's going to get anywhere).

"Waaa waaaa waaa, I'm Ben Sheets, and Milwaukee wasn't fair to me!"

Jerk.

[MyKenk]

huh, i don't recall him saying that.

Now Corey Hart, HE'S the giant douchebag that needs to be gotten rid of.

[MyKenk]

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/wp-content/images_07_08/maas/1436312981_a51a4a469e_1_.jpg

[GuineaPig]

Mykenk, are you the one with in the pic with the cool hat?

[MyKenk]

Nope, I'm in the blue striped shirt.

[MyKenk]

I'm starting to hear that the Brewers have changed their minds about adding a starting pitcher prior to camp and might sign Looper. From what I hear, the sides could be working toward a deal at this very moment.

[MyKenk]

It's done.

ok, it's not, but, it is.

[MyKenk]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xABfVgPVN_o&feature=player_embedded

:notworth:

[MyKenk]

Another AAA pitcher! Woot!

Spring Training opens TOMORROW!

:party:

[MyKenk]

4 more hours!

And, browsing the official site, I notice a change this year. IIRC, last year the "Marquee games" were against the Cubs and the Cards, this year, they're the Cubs and the White Sox.

Seriously? White Sox v. Brewers is a Marquee matchup?

I know they did that to cut down on the number of chicagoan's coming up for the Sox series, but, do white sox fans really travel all that well? It's not like their tickets are hard to come by, like the Cubs...

[Slainte]

:party:

That is a curious choice for a "marquee" series. Were you signing up for the Opening Day ticket lottery, by chance? (Shhhh. Don't tell anyone else about it.)

[MyKenk]

Psht. I've been signed up for that for a while now.

I just noticed the Cubs & White Sox logo on one of the ads, and was confused.

[MyKenk]

http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/turns_out_craig_counsell

[Warrior04]

The Onion is blocked at work for me. Care to copy the text?

[MyKenk]

NEW YORK—After the records of players who used performance-enhancing drugs are carefully removed, statistics provided by the Elias Sports Bureau indicate that lifetime .255 hitter Craig Counsell was the best player of the past 15 years. "If you judge them on the basis of pure physical ability, you're left with Craig Counsell," said ESB representative Patrick Wondolowski, adding that Counsell's 35 career home runs narrowly beat out Quinton McCracken's 21 and pitcher Glendon Rusch's three. Upon hearing the news, broadcaster Bob Uecker lauded the Brewers utilityman as "one of the best I ever saw, if we're talking about those who I can say without a doubt never took steroids. He came this close to stealing a base off of Ivan Rodriguez, and I swear I heard him foul tip a Roger Clemens fastball. The kid could flat-out steroid-free play. One time he was playing third base and he caught a Rafael Palmeiro line drive—just caught it, right in his mitt." When asked about his Hall of Fame chances, Counsell dodged the question by asking if anyone had a few bucks so he could go buy a sandwich.


:toth:

[MyKenk]

So far so good:
Bill Hall, the frontrunner at start at third base, was diagnosed with a partial tear of his left calf muscle on Friday and will be sidelined 4-6 weeks for rehabilitation. Hall was injured while doing conditioning work before the start of Spring Training.

Mike Lamb :tdown:
Bill Hall :tdown:
Mat Gamel :tup:
Casey McGehee :tup:

[MyKenk]

http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/32206/gallardofootball2.jpg

[MyKenk]

I'm Back Baby!

http://www.milwaukeebrewersticket.net/img/articles/Eric%20Gagne.bmp

[Warrior04]

Nice. Like I heard or read somewhere, I'll think of this as a 2 year/$11.5 million deal instead of a 1 year/$10 million and 1 year/$1.5 million.

It makes last year much more bearable.

[MyKenk]

Pitcher A: 18 G, 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 10 BB, 15 K
Pitcher B: 18 G, 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3 BB, 12 K
Pitcher C: 14 G, 18 IP, 1.50 ERA, 4 BB, 19 K

:shrug:

All pretty good.

[MyKenk]

The more I read about Gagne, the more I'm actually pretty impressed.


Phoenix - Eric Gagne isn't stupid. He knows he stunk as the Brewers' closer last year.

In fact, Gagne felt so bad after pitching poorly with a $10 million contract, he apologized to general manager Doug Melvin after the season.

"I told him I was disappointed in myself and I let the team and organization down," Gagne said this morning after rejoining the team. "It’s easy to succeed, it’s hard to fail.

"You look at your paycheck every two weeks and you say, ‘Man, that’s crazy.’ I wanted to pitch better. It was something I felt bad about. I wanted to pitch good.

"I was disappointed. I knew he was taking a big chance on me and sticking his neck out. This is a business. I know how hard it is. That’s his job. He makes a lot of moves and gets judged on all his moves. That was a big move he made last year and it didn’t work out."

It was with that backdrop that Gagne signed a minor-league deal yesterday to try to make the club as a set-up man to closer Trevor Hoffman. Gagne will get $1.5 million if he makes the club with a chance to make another $3 million if he pitches a lot.

It's a no-risk deal for the Brewers but Gagne says he wants to make good and atone somewhat for his failure as a closer in 2008.

"That’s why I wanted to do it that way," he said. "They paid me a lot of money last year and I didn’t really deliver. Just to come back with a little bit of payback.

"I’ve got to show them I can still do it. That’s all it is. It’s not that big of a difference."

Gagne appeared close to a deal with Minnesota a few weeks back before talks broke off. He acknowledged the depressed free agent market but said he wants to keep pitching and figured Milwaukee would be a good place for him despite his past failure.

"Actually, it feels pretty normal," he said. "That’s basically the reason I wanted to come back – familiar faces, familiar place. The guys know me, I know them. It’s a lot more comfortable.

"It’s a good challenge and a good place. (The market) was just unexpected. As a player, you always have high expectations. But I didn’t really worry about it. I’m lucky enough that I don’t have to worry about it. I’ve just got to worry about pitching somewhere. That’s what I wanted to do. I could have retired but I was not done. I want to do some more."

Gagne said he's looking forward to playing with Hoffman, whom he knows well.

"That’s what’s funny," he said. "Two years ago, we were talking about closing and set-up and stuff. I said it would be pretty cool to play with him. I said if I’m going to be a set-up guy, it would be for this guy or Mariano (Rivera)

"He’s a great guy, a guy you can really learn from. He’s got a great work ethic. He’s the best of all-time."

After forfeiting the closer's role to Salomon Torres last year, Gagne later was shut down with a shoulder problem. He returned in a setup role later in the season and actually performed well for the most part but by then the fans were on him pretty good.

So, remembering those boos, how could Gagne want to return to the Brewers?

"Of course, you hear the boos," he said. "If you do (poorly), you get treated like that. It’s not that big of a deal.

"I don’t care. They’re going to react the way they’re going to react. If I pitch good, they’re going to be happy. If you pitch good, they’re going to love you. If you pitch bad, they’re not going to love you as much.

"I just waited for the right opportunity to come along. I didn’t have to play this year. I could have gone home with my family. I wanted to be in a good situation, the right place, where you can win, first of all. Here, it was perfect. I know everybody. It feels like home."

[MyKenk]

First intersquad game is underway.

More important news:

Brett Lawrie is playing in the WBC.

Okay, actually important news:

Brett Lawrie is switching positions to second base.

You hear that Rickie? It's your time. Running. Out.

[MyKenk]

First Lineup Post of 2009!
Milwaukee v. Oakland - ST 2/25/2009
2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
CF Mike Cameron
3B Casey McGehee
C Jason Kendall
RHP Jeff Suppan

[MyKenk]

I approve of Cory Provus. Tentatively. Sounds very Powell-ish.

[MyKenk]

1st "Bushy.... DEALIN'!" of the new year.

:party:

[Slainte]

You beat me to it!

[Cohete009]

Bushy is always dealin'.

[MyKenk]

Corey Hart aka "f'n douche" is 25 pounds heavier (mostly hair), and is 2 for 2 with a HR.

[Cannonball]

O look, Soupie gave up a dinger in the 2nd.

Didn't see that coming.

[Slainte]

Hopefully Shades isn't going to peak in Spring Training rather than before the All-Star Break.

[MyKenk]

Corey Hart took a walk. Meanwhile, Hell is frozen.

[Sweet Lou]

Corey Hart took a walk. Meanwhile, Hell is frozen.

As did Soriano...:yikes:

[MyKenk]

Counsell 3 for 3. Uecker making fun of him.

oh yeah.

time game, bottom 9th, runner on 2nd.

[MyKenk]

Milwaukee v. Chicago (NL) - ST 2/26/2009
2B Rickie Weeks
RF Chris Duffy
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
CF Mike Cameron
C Mike Rivera
1B Brad Nelson
3B Casey McGehee
RHP Yovani Gallardo

[Sweet Lou]

RHP Yovani Gallardo

I wonder if Reed Johnson is gonna try to bunt for a hit again....:burn:

[MyKenk]

I wonder if Reed Johnson is gonna try to bunt for a hit again....:burn:

Don't worry, we've got Chris "the hitman" Duffy starting. He'll injure numerous cubs before getting ejected.

[MyKenk]

Note: Chris Duffy's new nickname is "The Hitman"

[MyKenk]

Scored my pre-sale Marquee game tix to the Cubs series in September. :guitarwo:

[Sweet Lou]

Hardy thrown out by Hoffpauir from left??? :lol:

[MyKenk]

Chris Duffy hitting a triple??? :lol:

[MyKenk]

Yesterday's game was essentially a must-win game. While it wasn't technically a must-win game, it was a very important one. Well, 11 walks and a slew of runs later, we failed to win. We now have only 2 more games against the Cubs before the season starts. Those two games, May 7 and 16, are now truly must-win games. How can we expect to challenge for the division if we can't even win a series against the frontrunner in spring training?! Perhaps Macha doesn't realize the importance of this rivalry.

With that said, I think Doug and Mark A. need to sit down and have a discussion about how to manage important games. Here's what NEEDS to be covered in that discussion:

1. The Mikes - Rivera and Cameron both hit homeruns in yesterday's game. If a player is named Mike, he had better be on the lineup card vs. the Cubs.

2. Show your ex-Cards - Gallardo and McClung proved that our young pitchers can't handle the pressure of this matchup. Suppan and Looper have had more experience with Cubs-Related-Rivalries (CRR) than anybody else on the team. Suppan is our highest paid player; he deserves to be given a shot to face our formidable opponents. Unless, of course, Yovani changes his name to Mike Gallardo.

3. Free Pass - Jake Fox and Joey Gathright need to be intentionally walked. Period.

4. Leave your starters in - How can you expect to win if Ryan Braun is the only player left in past the halfway point? That can't be tolerated! Our bench has virtually no CRR experience.

I really hope Doug and Mark can get the message across, otherwise we're in for a long season.

[Cannonball]

Man, I hope Looper didn't screw his season with a sneeze. That's a $4.75 million sneeze!

[MyKenk]

He'll be fine.

[MyKenk]

Lorenzo Cain added to major league camp!

:woot:

[Cannonball]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AuOcaXkv.ff5P6H.Hk5i9p8e0bYF?slug=ap-brewers-looper&prov=ap&type=lgns

Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Braden Looper will miss his second straight spring training start because of a strained oblique muscle and might not be ready for opening day.


OK, I think he'll be fine too. Still, you have to wonder....

He also says he's feeling a lot better. Yay.

[MyKenk]

Brewers v. Australia.

[MyKenk]

Awesome Post.

[Slainte]

Dave Nillson.
Graeme Lloyd.
Wombats.
I got nothing.

[MyKenk]

Graeme Lloyd's their bullpen and/or pitching coach. :lol:

I miss Dave Nillson.

[MyKenk]

Brian Anderson, being racist.

[Slainte]

Brian Anderson, being racist.

:-?

[MyKenk]

that was yesterday.

[MyKenk]

Matt Wise retires.

[Sweet Lou]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3976617&name=Neyer_Rob


Brewers should make a few bold moves

Friday, March 13, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

"The Fielding Bible" is back, and it's (much) bigger and (definitely) better than ever. For example, Bill James' article about Defensive Misplays:

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee's ersatz second baseman, had 44 diverse Defensive Misplays. These were:

• Letting a ball roll under his glove or between his legs -- 9 times

• Juggling or dropping a ball on which a smooth play might have gotten an out -- 7 times

• Making a poor throw on a double-play try -- 6 times

• Making a poor throw -- 4 times

• Mishandling the pivot on a double-play try (juggling or dropping the ball) -- 3 times

That's 29 Defensive Misplays, with 15 more to go (Bill describes them in loving detail), after which we get a spot of analysis:

I really like Rickie Weeks, and I feel strongly that he has major league ability that just hasn't come out yet. One of the reasons it hasn't come out yet -- one of several -- is that they keep playing him at second base, and he really is not much of a second baseman. I would compare him to Don Buford, a player of three or four generations ago who came up as a highly touted second baseman for the White Sox, but never really could put it together as a second baseman. But Earl Weaver moved him to left field, and he was a very valuable player as a left fielder/leadoff man.

I bring all this up for two reasons: (1) you should buy "The Fielding Bible," and (2) the people running the Brewers have been presented with a unique opportunity for intelligence and boldness.

The Brewers currently have a first baseman (Prince Fielder) who can't play first base, a second baseman (Weeks) who can't play second base, a left fielder (Ryan Braun) who probably shouldn't play left field, and an extra young shortstop (Alcides Escobar) who should have an everyday job soon.

Problems? No! Opportunities! I suppose it's too late in the spring to trade Fielder and move Braun to first base and find a new left fielder, but eventually all these things are going to have to find their natural balance, and the Brewers will be better off if management takes an active role in that process.





Thoughts?

[MyKenk]

Many:

1) Those numbers HAVE to be too low.
2) Braun plays a solid LF. He's not a gold glover, but he had zero errors (I know, I know, bad measure) last year, and seemed to do nothing but get better in the field as the year progressed. Moving him to first base is not an option because...
3) 1st base is Mat Gamel's position starting in 2011 (or earlier, when we trade Prince).
4) Rickie Weeks' time is running out, that's for sure. It's an interesting thought moving him to left, but the logjam in the infield would inhibit that. Some say move him to center, but Lorenzo Cain is the real deal, and he'll be up after this year, as Cameron's gone after this year.

MyKenk's BEST CASE SCENARIO:
1) Weeks tears the cover off the ball early this year, and shows that he can play a little defense
2) Escobar learns how to hit the ball out of the infield at AAA early this year.
3) Weeks is traded for pitching in June/July
4) Hardy shifts to 2nd, Escobar steps in at SS
5) Prince is traded for pitching in June/July/the offseason
6) Gamel steps in at 1st.
7) Bill Hall & Jeff Suppan mysteriously vanish March 17th.
8) Corey Hart decreases his douchebag factor from 2 to something in the mid 1's.
9) Idiot Cubs bloggers stop refering to our rotation as "Yovani Gallardo & 4 Jeff Suppans".

[MyKenk]

From Gammons' blog (commentary potentially added)

• One reason for Billy Hall (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5311)'s expected resurgence is the laser surgery he had in the offseason. "It makes all the difference," Hall says. "I can see again." Hall believes the Brewers will be in on Jake Peavy (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5019), when and if he goes on the market.

So, the past 4 years, we've had a blind guy getting regular at bats. Fantastic. And who in the hell cares what Bill Hall has to say about potential future transactions. If Bill Hall says it, it's probably vastly overblown, in a manner similar to his contract.

• The way Milwaukee players describe the impact Willie Randolph has had on Rickie Weeks (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5652) is that he has "quieted down Weeks in the field. He's much more calm."

Dear Willie: Rickie doesn't need to be more calm. He needs to learn how to throw a baseball overhand. Thnx, Mykenk

• Brewers GM Doug Melvin points out that only four players (Adam Dunn (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4808), Jack Cust (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4609), Albert Pujols (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4574), Pat Burrell (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4214)) walked more than 100 times last season, but that 90 players struck out more than 100 times, and of those 90, nine hit fewer than 10 homers (Carlos Gomez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28762), B.J. Upton (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5970), Jack Hannahan (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28468), Akinori Iwamura (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28632), Fred Lewis (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28574), Michael Bourn (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28535), Adam Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28513), Brian Roberts (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4773), Chase Headley (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28809)). Of those who walked 100 times, only Pujols fanned fewer than 100 times. The game's best hitter had a 104 walks, 54 strikeouts and 81 extra-base hits.

Did Mustache have a point, or was he just babbling about irrelevant stats with Peter Gammons? How many of those 90 players that struck out more than 100 times were on the Brewers?

[MyKenk]

Answer: 6

(Cameron, Fielder, Braun, Hall, Weeks, Hart)

[MyKenk]

Too often, we see baseball players as essentially different from the rest of us. In order to combat that trend, we at ChatterBalks have started Getting To Know You, in which we conduct informal interviews in order to humanize them. This time: Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks!

ChatterBalks: Rickie, thanks for taking the time to talk to us.

Rickie Weeks: It’s good to be here.

CB: So, how do you expect the Brewers to do this year?

RW: We’ve got a good solid team and I think we’re going to compete in the NL Central.

CB: Name one reason why anyone would think that.

RW: …what?

CB: Why would you be good this year? That doesn’t make any sense.

RW: Sure it does. You saw what we could do last year when we made the playoffs…

CB: Last year, you had Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia. You’ve lost your good pitchers. You made the playoffs last year by one game, and now you’re replacing your two best pitchers with Braden Looper and Toucan Sam.

RW: I think you’re being a little unfair to Manny Parra there.

CB: We don’t know who that is.

RW: He’s our fifth star-

CB: We also don’t care.

(Awkward silence)

CB: What’s your all-time favorite TV show?

RW: Well, lately I’ve been watching Jeff [Suppan]’s Deadwood DVDs. It’s pretty good.

CB: You mean Deadwood, the show that spent years building up to something that never actually happened?

RW: I haven’t gotten that far in it yet…

CB: Well, the whole thing was building up to a confrontation between the town and the bad guy’s men. The whole third season was, like, nothing but building up tension for this huge epic fight that was gonna go down. And you could feel it too, “Oh, this is gonna be great. This is gonna be huge! This is gonna be worth these dull people I don’t care about being on my TV screen. They’re definitely gonna matter at some point! This’ll get better!”

RW: Right.

CB: Then it didn’t. It just ended.

RW: That’s too bad.

CB: Yeah, it is too bad. I really, really wanted it to be good. I even drafted it in the 9th round of my fantasy TV show draft because I had a hole at second base and this was supposed to be its year. But it never had that year, did it? It started off good, and then got better, and then sucked and there were supposed to be better things ahead, but they’re never coming, are they Rickie? There are no better things ahead, are there Rickie?

(The phone is dead)

CB: God damn it.

[MyKenk]

Suppan's starting opening day. Am I the only one that doesn't think this is a giant problem?

[Warrior04]

So we start with our #5 starter. Great! That means we'll be starting from behind, but have the upper hand the next few games, right?

Brewers #5 vs. Opponents #1 (Giants - Lincecum)
Brewers #1 vs. Opponents #2
Brewers #2 vs. Opponents #3
Brewers #3 vs. Opponents #4
Brewers #4 vs. Opponents #5

I'm just looking for the Silver Lining (2009 pitching rotation apparently sponsored by West Bend).

[rekrap]

Suppan's starting opening day. Am I the only one that doesn't think this is a giant problem?

Actually, I think it is not a Giant problem.

[MyKenk]

So we start with our #5 starter. Great! That means we'll be starting from behind, but have the upper hand the next few games, right?

Brewers #5 vs. Opponents #1 (Giants - Lincecum)
Brewers #1 vs. Opponents #2
Brewers #2 vs. Opponents #3
Brewers #3 vs. Opponents #4
Brewers #4 vs. Opponents #5

I'm just looking for the Silver Lining (2009 pitching rotation apparently sponsored by West Bend).

We took down Lincecum last year.

I just want our 1, 2, and 3 lined up for the series against the cubs. Must wins.

[MyKenk]

The games on TV today! :party:

The FSN scoreboard thing is much better than last years, these are my first impressions.

Having 4 guys in the booth is really obnoxious, though.

[Patience]

I just want our 1, 2, and 3 lined up for the series against the cubs. Must wins.

really? for whom?

[MyKenk]

really? for whom?
Every game against the Cubs is a must win.

Gallardo looks good, btw.

Counsell's batting stance looks... normal.

[Cohete009]

Any time you play FIBS, you must win.

Gallardo is an ace.

Will have to see the new stance.....still don't believe it.

[MyKenk]

Will have to see the new stance.....still don't believe it.
http://media.journalinteractive.com/images/counsellstance2324.jpg

[MyKenk]

Trot Nixon released, Gamel optioned.

[MyKenk]

Five questions: Milwaukee Brewers (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-milwaukee-brewers4/)
by Jeff Sackmann
March 26, 2009

It's official: The Brewers can't be a sleeper pick anymore. After a slow and unsteady climb from the basement to contention, Milwaukee finally put a team in the playoffs. The postseason appearance didn't last long, but it does mean we can stop saying "1982 (http://www.amazon.com/Harveys-Wallbangers-1982-Milwaukee-Brewers/dp/B000MX7TY0)" all the time.

It would be nice to look at the 2008 Wild Card winners and see the beginning of a dynasty. The cast has changed too much for that, with last year's closer and top two starters off the team. All is not lost, as a full season of Yovani Gallardo (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/8173/yovani-gallardo) and newcomer Trevor Hoffman (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1035/trevor-hoffman) will pick up some of the slack. Of all the teams that made the 2008 postseason, though, the Brewers might be the one that looks least likely to repeat.

1. Can Yovani Gallardo make 100 starts?
Last year, Ben Sheets (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/710/ben-sheets) and CC Sabathia (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/404/) combined for 48 starts, 329 innings, a 24-11 record, and an ERA around 2.50. With those two guys making up 30 percent of the team's outings, it's no surprise the rotation's overall ERA was second-best in the league. This year, Sheets is injured and Sabathia's a Yankee.

That puts a lot of pressure on de facto ace Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo had an excellent half-season as a 21-year-old in 2007, then lost most of 2008 to injury. The team has been careful not to appoint him ace, savior, or only hope, but if the Brewers are to come anywhere close to 90 wins again this year, he will have to be all of those things.

Gallardo will leave far too many starts for guys like Jeff Suppan (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/633/jeff-suppan) to make, but 180 innings across 30 starts isn't out of the question. He suffered a knee injury, so he doesn't face nearly the same risk that other pitchers coming off of serious injuries do. He's certainly capable of handling the full-season load, having thrown 188 innings in 2007 and 155 the year before.

How he'll perform is a more difficult question. Brewers fans tend to take his top-of-the-rotation promise for granted (at least I do, anyway), but he has only seen 135 innings of MLB action. CHONE projects him (http://baseballprojection.com/MIL2009p.htm) for a 3.50 ERA based on that impressive '07 line and a solid minor league track record. I'd take that.

2. If you have more fifth starters than any other team, do you get an automatic postseason berth?
While the marquee value (get it? fifth starter? (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/marquja01.shtml)) of the rotation has taken a major hit since October, it's not as bad as it looks. Suppan is a really expensive fifth starter and Braden Looper (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/526/braden-looper) is a less expensive fifth starter. But Dave Bush (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/4635/david-t-bush) and Manny Parra (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/4279/manny-parra) are something else entirely.

Parra, like Gallardo, is a key to the Brewers 2009 hopes. He amassed 166 innings last year, more than any previous season in his injury-riddled pro career. Through July 25, he threw 113 innings with a 3.72 ERA. He only managed two quality starts from that point on, eventually pitching his way out of the rotation before the end of the year. His late fade is certainly understandable, and the Brewers have to hope that at age 26, he'll have the durability to stay strong through August and September. If he accomplishes that, he'll be a credible #2 behind Gallardo.

By contrast, durability is not the problem for Dave Bush. He gives off a back-rotation vibe, but for most of his career, he's been better than that. Last year, despite a dreadful start (his ERA was still over 6.00 at the end of May, after nine starts), he recovered with a 3.43 ERA the rest of the way. Net result: above league-average performance. More than Gallardo or Parra, he's a good bet to make 30+ starts and throw close to 200 innings.

Adding to the bona-fide "fifth starter" ranks are a small army of guys headed to Nashville or the bullpen. Seth McClung (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1657/seth-mcclung) will undertake a swing role again this year, while former starter Carlos Villanueva (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/4138/carlos-villanueva) appears slated for set-up duty. At Triple-A, the rotation will include the rehabbing Chris Capuano, recent pickups Nick Green (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=446550) and Chase Wright (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=451657), and roster fodder Chris Narveson (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=429780) and Matt Ginter (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=215197). Nobody there is going to threaten for a big-league rotation spot, but when injury strikes, they should be adequate to prevent disaster.

3. Who's on third?
No, I Don't Know is at third. (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/humor4.shtml) Bill Hall (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1605/bill-hall) is the presumptive starter, but as it did last year, a platoon may emerge. Hall is right-handed and has established that his team is best off starting him against as many lefties (and Reds (http://redreporter.wikidot.com/bill-hall-all-stars)) as possible.

While it's still not clear who will end up on the 25-man roster, new manager Ken Macha (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/machake01.shtml) has options if he decides to platoon Hall. In camp are lefties Craig Counsell (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/52/craig-counsell), Mike Lamb (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1258/mike-lamb), and Brad Nelson (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=434525), none of whom are good at both hitting and fielding, but any of whom might be a better option against right-handed pitching than Hall. Depending on how much Counsell is needed at second base and shortstop, he may end up with the most playing time at third base, while a hot streak from Lamb could put the former Astro more heavily in the mix.

The highest-upside option is top prospect Mat Gamel (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=451143), another lefty bat. Like with Ryan Braun (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/3410/ryan-braun) two years ago, there are few questions about his offense. The usual question about his fielding, though, is, "Where will he play when he's moved off third?" As with Braun, the Brewers are giving Gamel every chance to prove he can man the hot corner, and he'll continue to make that effort when he opens the 2009 season in Nashville.

4. Speaking of defense, aren't the Brewers awful in the field?
They were. Now they're pretty darn good. One of Doug Melvin's top priorities in the 2007-08 offseason was to improve the defense, and by the handy measure of defensive efficiency, he was remarkably successful. In '07, 31.2% of opponents' batted balls went for hits (4th worst in the NL), while in '08, that number dropped to 28.9% (2nd best).

At least some of the reasons for that are obvious. When the Crew signed Mike Cameron (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1070/mike-cameron), the dominoes started falling, moving Hall back to the infield and Braun to left. J.J. Hardy (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/3797/j.j.-hardy) has long provided solid glovework at shortstop, and even Rickie Weeks (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1849/rickie-weeks) may be improving. Prince Fielder (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/4613/prince-fielder) is the sole regular with little hope of turning in an average-or-better season in the field.

Since, with the possible exception of third base, the defensive alignment is unchanged, it's reasonable to expect that the Crew will once again turn batted balls into outs at a better-than-average rate. Up-and-coming defensive stud shortstop Alcides Escobar (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=444876) is knocking at the door, and while his emergence may make things complicated from a roster- and ego-management perspective, his glove could make the defense even better.

5. What, another new bullpen?
This was Melvin's other top priority a year ago. Unlike his results with the defense, he wasn't successful. The Brewers had the most expensive bullpen in the league last year, and with the exception of a few million bucks for Salomon Torres (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1628/salomon-torres), it was money poorly spent. The relievers as a whole weren't bad, but some of the strongest contributions came from the guys making a measly six figures.

This year, there's no Torres, no Eric Gagne (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/650/eric-gagne), no Guillermo Mota (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1467/guillermo-mota), not even Brian Shouse (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/630/brian-shouse). Filling the "guy with a lot of career saves" roster spot is Trevor Hoffman, and David Riske (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/402/david-riske) will return to try to look more like the elite set-up man Melvin thought he signed last year. After that, it's scrap heap-o-rama.

While he has struggled in the rotation, Carlos Villanueva has typically had success in the 'pen, and he'll pitch in the late innings. Taking over the LOOGY role from Shouse, at least in April, will be homegrown Mitch Stetter (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/5579/mitch-stetter). Filling out the 'pen will be some combination of Todd Coffey (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/2467/todd-coffey), Mark DiFelice (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=442707), Jorge Julio (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/148/jorge-julio), and, if he's not needed in the rotation, Seth McClung.


In short, it looks like Melvin learned a lesson or two from trying to solve last offseason's problem with briefcases full of cash. Cash is a great way to ensure the loyalty of team bloggers (http://www.brewcrewball.com/2008/9/22/619501/doug-should-stay), but not always the best way to handle the 7th inning. $6 million for Hoffman is, at least in part, a nod to conventional wisdom, but the rest of the bullpen reflects a recognition of reliever volatility and his own ability to find diamonds in the roughs of the waiver wire and indy leagues.


Bonus question: This is more question marks than last year, isn't it?
It's tough to see the 2009 Brewers squad winning 90 games again. Then again, looking at the April '08 roster knowing what we know now about some of those players ($10MM closer Eric Gagne, ladies and gentlemen!), it's tough to believe that team won 90 games, either.

With Fielder, Hardy, Hart, and others moving closer to free agency, Gallardo and Parra still developing, and Escobar, Gamel, and perhaps Jeremy Jeffress (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=502026) forcing their way into the team's plans, history may see this as a transitional year for the Crew. The current roster looks for all the world like an 85-win team, which makes some of that uncertainty a little more desirable. Plenty could go wrong, but if luck is in Milwaukee's corner, it could mean a second consecutive playoff appearance.

[MyKenk]

Alright guys, time to predict the 25 man roster! :party:

Or, I'll just do it, seeing as this is my blog, apparently.

Assuming no one starts on the DL:

1. C – Kendall
2. C – Rivera
3. 1B – Fielder
4. 2B – Weeks
5. 3B – Hall
6. SS – Hardy
7. LF – Braun
8. CF – Cameron
9. RF – Hart
10. IF – McGehee
11. IF – Counsell
12. OF – Duffy
13. IF/OF – Nelson
14. SP – Suppan
15. SP – Gallardo
16. SP – Bush
17. SP – Looper
18. SP – Parra
19. RP – Stetter
20. RP – Riske
21. RP – DeFelice
22. RP – Villenueva
23. RP – McClung
24. RP – Coffey
25. CP – Hoffman

[dlwktb]

So you're telling me I didn't make the cut? :(

[MyKenk]

I thought you were Todd Coffey!?

Who are you!?!?

[Warrior04]

Wow, I was just going to question why you didn't put Mike Lamb on the roster, but I see he got released today, hours after you posted your list. I suppose I really shouldn't question the rest of it!

We do know that Hoffman will start the year on the DL (I'd predict Julio in his spot), and Counsell also may start the year on the DL (if he does, I'd guess Gwynn will stick around for a couple of weeks--Hall can slide over to SS in a pinch and I don't know if they'd want Escobar around to just sit on the bench).

Other than that, it's pretty well set now. April 7th can't come soon enough!

[MyKenk]

I'm starting to question the list myself. I'm reasonably sure that they're going to go with 13 pitchers, giving Julio a permanent spot, probably at the expense of Duffy.

That's my final answer.

As far as the DL goes, I'd prefer them carry Duffy over Gwynn, but the minor league option thing makes that difficult. Not sure what pitcher they'll throw in the bullpen to take Hoffman's place.

:shrug: We'll see.

[Warrior04]

I agree with you that McGehee and Duffy have certainly earned their spots, but that doesn't mean they'll get them. I'd prefer Duffy over Gwynn too, based on spring performance.

Thanks for letting me guest star on your blog. I'll be here all summer! :wave:

[Warrior04]

Holy Crap! Gwynn's on his way out. I completely agree, I just didn't think he'd actually lose a roster spot to Chris Duffy!

In other news, Suppan is officially the opening day starter. There will be no exclamation points to signify excitement in that sentence.

[Cohete009]

Soup pitched great!

[MyKenk]

Holy Crap! Gwynn's on his way out. I completely agree, I just didn't think he'd actually lose a roster spot to Chris Duffy!

In other news, Suppan is officially the opening day starter. There will be no exclamation points to signify excitement in that sentence.

Hmm, someone *cough* called that a few posts ago. :tup:

Soup pitched great!

Let's geek out a bit, we are actuaries, aren't we? Emphasis added where needed:


It's official: Suppan is starting on Opening Day.

So, at least for a little while, Suppan will line up against other teams' #1 starters, and our #1 starter (presumably Gallardo) will go against guys further down in their teams' respective rotations.

This has generally provoked consternation--after all, Suppan is no one's ideal #1 starter, even for the {choose one: Royals, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles}.

However, my intuition told me this might be a smart move. I haven't really thought through the comparison, but it's similar to the somewhat counterintuitive finding that inconsistent starters are better than consistent ones (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/same-old-same-old/), if we're comparing guys with average performance.

So I figured I'd drastically oversimplify the situation and run a monte carlo simulation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) to see what happens.

I'm going to walk through it step by step, but if you don't care about the process, just skip down to the boldface clause below.

First, let's assume that other teams line up their rotations in the typical fashion, and that our rotation lines up 5-1-2-3-4. (It doesn't matter at all whether I have the right order of 1-2-3, as we'll see in a moment.) Thus, every five games will look like this:

(Brewers SP vs. Opponent SP)


game 1: #5 vs. #1
game 2: #1 vs. #2
game 3: #2 vs. #3
game 4: #3 vs. #4
game 5: #4 vs. #5

Next, let's come up with a distribution of possible outcomes. Again oversimplifying, let's pretend every #1 starter is equal, every 2, 3, 4 starter is equal, and every 5 starter is equal:


#1 starter: equal chance of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 runs. (3.00 ERA)
#2, 3, 4 starter: equal chance of 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 runs. (4.00 ERA)
#5 starter: equal chance of 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 runs. (5.00 ERA)

Notice we're ignoring the effect of the bullpen. While those ERAs may be in the ballpark, having the same bullpen every night is going to bring the end result closer together. We're going to ignore that, because I don't want to write more than 30 lines of code.

From here on out, it's simple. We're going to go through the 5-game sequence listed above, randomly pick one of the five possible outcomes for each of the two pitchers, and see who wins. (Of course, there will be a lot of ties -- in those cases, we'll award half a win to each team.)

Running through the sequence 1 time (or even 1,000) doesn't give us a very good picture, since the rotation sequence doesn't have a very strong impact, and in a small number of runs, the results could simply reflect good or bad luck.

So I ran through the 5-game sequence two million times. In both the first million and the second million (the first million, of course, was the hardest), the team that used the #5 starter in game 1 won about 50.8% of the time.

Of course, if these hypothetical rotations matched up in the typical 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2 fashion, each team would win exactly 50% of the time.

My friends, Macha is crazy like a fox.

As noted, I've drastically simplified. Of course 2, 3, and 4 starters aren't equal, and of course no team will stay exactly on schedule all season long. (Even if they did, their 5th, 10th, 15th, etc., games wouldn't necessarily match up with ours.) Not every team has 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 starters equal to ours. And of course, the Brewers will not give up exactly 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 runs in equal numbers of Suppan's starts.

But the simple exercise gives us some insight into the result of the more complex real-world scenario.

The one thing I can think of that would negate the benefit would be the possibility that the "true" #1 (Gallardo) might end up with one or two fewer starts. That might not be the case (depending on off days), and it might be ok (if Gallardo's innings were to be limited anyway). But 50.8% probably means only one or two extra wins over the course of the season, and one fewer Gallardo start in favor of Suppan could well mean the opposite.

[Warrior04]

Vinny Rottino is going to start out in AA Huntsville so he can play everyday at 3B.

Yeah, it's not really news, but this thread was on page 2 and I wanted to make it easier to find tomorrow. :tup:

[MyKenk]

Rottino will be a coach in the system within 2 years. Tops.

[GuineaPig]

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers
By Tim Dierkes [April 6, 2009 at 1:00pm CST]

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Brewers. Here's what we wrote about them on October 16th. Changes for 2009:

Additions: Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper, Jorge Julio, R.J. Swindle, Chase Wright, Craig Counsell (re-signed), Joe Koshansky, Casey McGehee, Chris Duffy, Chris Capuano (re-signed), Wes Littleton. Midseason: Todd Coffey

Subtractions: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Gabe Kapler, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne

The Brewers' batting lineup remains unchanged for 2009 (GM Doug Melvin decided not to trade Mike Cameron). They ranked 7th in the NL last year with 4.63 runs scored per game. Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool, the Brewers project to score 4.86 runs per game in '09. The projection system sees better seasons from Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks, and Hall.

It will be impossible to replicate the 3.86 ERA posted by last year's starters. 329 of the rotation's 983.3 innings came from Sabathia and Sheets at a 2.52 ERA. Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra form an interesting front two, but Melvin's main import was Looper for $4.75MM after his bid to retain Sabathia fell short. Using a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Looper, and Wright, I tweaked CHONE's innings totals and arrived at a projected 4.44 ERA for the '09 rotation.

The bullpen, which posted a 3.89 ERA in 472.3 innings last year, has been overhauled again. Many of last year's offenders are gone, with Hoffman signed to take over closing duties once he's healthy. Julio was also added to the mix. Carlos Villanueva quietly posted a 2.12 ERA and 4.43 K/BB ratio in 59.3 relief innings last year. All in all, the '09 bullpen projects to a 3.84 ERA. The Brewers' defense was third in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II. The defense remains the same, except for subtractions of Kapler, Branyan, and Durham.

So perhaps the Brewers will score more runs, but the main difference is obviously their rotation. Right now they project as an 85 win team, which should keep them in the wild card race.

Bottom line: The Brewers did little to replace Sabathia and Sheets. But with a breakout or two and/or another big summer trade, the Brewers may return to the playoffs in 2009.

[MyKenk]

So, we've got the offseason review from a Cub's fan. How about one from a (much smarter ;)) Brewer fan:

Last year's Brewers team had, in total, about an 87-win true talent estimate. We can attribute the fact that they won 90 games to some clutch hitting, clutch/lucky bullpen pitching, and a little bit of luck.

Five of those wins were contributed by one CC Sabathia, and as you may have heard, he is no longer a Brewer. Another five came from Sheets. So the Brewers start this season with something pretty close to the same roster, with the only big additions being Trevor Hoffman and Braden Looper as well as some shuffling of bullpen arms and bench players. So we are looking at an 80-ish win true talent team, right?

Let's go back to the start of 2008. Projections would have put the Brewers at about 86 wins at that point, counting on effective seasons from Gallardo and Sheets. The loss of Gallardo, the fact that the offense underperformed, and the utter inteptitude of the bullpen (it had a total WAR of zero, meaning they contributed absolutely nothing to that 87-win true talent estimate of last year's team) dropped that true talent down to about 82. Sabathia was able to make up the deficit by himself, and the context-based factors I already mentioned bumped us up to 90 wins and a playoff spot.

So the Brewers are in a unique situation here of having lost two five-win players. The idea proposed here is that at least one of those five-win players is naturally replaced by doing nothing at all, mainly having the offense meet their projections and the bullpen performing even slightly above replacement level. To replace those other five wins, the Brewers can count on Looper and Hoffman to contribute a few wins, and any contributions from Gallardo can go there as well, considering he contributed almost no value in last year's "looking back" record.

To buy into this concept you have to recognize that the Brewers outperformed their context-neutral stats last year and "should have" won 87 games; to rephrase, if you played the season again, and every pitcher and hitter produced the exact same events, you would expect the Brewers to win 87 games. They lost 10 wins from that team, and replaced those ten wins with two players who are expected to provide about three. But what you are not seeing is that Gallardo's contributions, the expected improvement in offensive production, and the bullpen's return to respectability are going to bring up that expected win total to almost exactly where we started last year, and in a strange twist, almost exactly where we ended last year (I am referencing WAR-based record again, not actual record).

To expand a bit on the bullpen, we know that last year-- in context neutral evaluation, anyway-- it was absolutely awful, contributing nothing to the team. Maybe the three extra wins above the WAR-based expected record were in part due to the fact that the bullpen allowed fewer runs than their context-neutral stats would have suggested. This year, our projections give us a rough 3.96 WAR projection for the entire bullpen, led from about 1.5 wins from Villanueva, .75 from Hoffman, and another win from Stetter and Swindle (who got 30 innings in our projections).

I promised a wrapup offense projection post, and I will include it here because there is not a lot of commentary left to provide. The hitters project to total about 8 wins above average and about 24-25 more wins than a team of replacement-level players. Are we giving ourselves too much credit? Well, our hitting projections are in line with established systems like CHONE, and our offense totals are still lower than teams like Colorado and Chicago. And in actuality, the WARs of the position players last year are also around 24, mostly driven by bench players like Kapler and Branyan-- we have already established that the five core players can be expected to improve about 5 wins this year. (http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/2/25/769161/quantifying-the-offensive) Much of the offensive improvement is actually wiped out by our expectation of lesser bench performance. Still, it is likely that we will see some gains in the overall offensive production that will help make up those 10 wins.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/127352/talent_medium.jpg (http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/127352/talent.jpg)

The overall spreadsheet for the WAR project that lists all of the community projections is right here (http://www.editgrid.com/user/skyking162/WAR_Spreadsheet_Comm_Proj). Click the MIL tab at the bottom of the page to see the final projections for all the players for yourself. Take the 88.7 win talent with a grain of salt at this point, all of the numbers in the project do seem a bit high-- which does make sense when you consider that many season-ending injuries will occur and though we account for players missing some time, we cannot predict these larger-scale injuries. So I am expecting that the whole league will be a bit higher in the wins category than would be possible.

Even though I am not bold enough to predict that 88.7 number, I think a valid case can be made that the Brewers got very close to replacing the ten wins they lost last year, though not necessarily by adding players. If I had to throw a number out there for the Brewers true talent right now, I would say 85 or 86 wins. Natural probability and randomness could put this team, if moderately healthy, in a 84-88 win window.

So to recap quickly-- how did we get from 87 last year to 85 or 86 this year? Start with 87. Subtract 5 for Sabathia and 5 for Sheets. Add about 1 or 2 for offensive improvement ("rebound", if you will), add 3 or 4 for gains from the bullpen and the additions of Hoffman and others, and add 4 for a season of Gallardo and the addition of Looper. This team is awfully close to where it was last year, even after considering the contributions of Sabathia.

How about we just let the national media continue to think that losing Sabathia is a blow that is impossible to overcome, though? That will make this season a lot more fun. Especially when all the stories about how Gallardo and Parra are single-handedly replacing CC and Sheets begin to come out.

This team is not as good as the team that the Brewers put on the field last September, that much is obvious. But when you step back and look at the overall picture, the projected record at the beginning of 2008, the "looking back" true-talent record for 2008, and our projected record right now are all within a few wins of each other.

We will keep an eye on all of our projections, and I plan to do a few posts for after the season comparing our projections to the major systems.

Hopefully, the Beyond the Boxscore project will get pulled together soon, as well, so we can compare the Brewers to the other teams in the division. But I have to say that the future looks much more bright than I would have anticipated when preparations for this season (and this community projections project) began.

This team has a very good offense, a slightly above-average starting staff with good potential, a solid and about average bullpen. and plenty of depth. If you take away anything from this and the community projections project, make it be this: all of it adds up to an above-average team that should be considered a very viable wildcard contender. And there is always time to bring in some reinforcements at the deadline (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/2010-free-agents.html), or a new mercenary (http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/watchdog/blog/capt_a359c2ed454d4c4b813347a3dc80bc6c_rockies_brew ers_baseball_wimg109%283%29.jpg).

All of the projections are catalogued in the spreadsheet linked here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pDlX3lLCaDDiYJJPjJu6SAg) for reference. You will notice that I never actually found the average averages of some bench players, because these were not relevant to the WAR spreadsheet. Everything else we projected should be listed there, and I will be interested to see how our projections line up to what actually occurs.

Thanks to everyone for participating, it is an interesting project and we will be looking back at those throughout the year. For now, let us stop projecting; we get to see what actually happens.

[GuineaPig]

:lol:

[GuineaPig]

Ole tim seems smart enough (i wish I could make a living posting links to baseball stories.)

[MyKenk]

He's smart enough to use an RSS reader and a blogging service?

I mean, I've got 650 baseball blogs in my RSS reader, I would think that I would have had the thought to collect them and not add much to the discussion, but I didn't think that'd work out too well. Oh well, beaten to the punch.

[MyKenk]

:doh:

[The Spocker]

wait, suppan is your opening day starter? not gallardo?

[Slainte]

Soup. Ladling.

[MyKenk]

wait, suppan is your opening day starter? not gallardo?
Yes. See a few posts ago for a solid, yet totally inaccurate, posting of why.

Soup. Ladling.

Soup, with the first Brewer hit & RBI of the year. Trivia question abounds...

[MyKenk]

Gameday is showing me, that Lincecum might be tipping his pitches, his release point on the curve is nowhere near that of the fastball.

[Sweet Lou]

I'd have a real hard time getting excited for the season if Jeff Suppan was my Opening Day starter.

[Cannonball]

Soup sucks.

[MyKenk]

I'd have a real hard time getting excited for the season if Jeff Suppan was my Opening Day starter.
Rotation doesn't really mean all that much. Plus, it's not the home opener anyway.

Soup sucks.

Pitched better than Linecum. Or Sabathia. :tup:

[MyKenk]

Pitched better than Linecum. Or Sabathia. :tup:

Or McClung.

[MyKenk]

Can't beat opening day home field advantage.

[Cannonball]

Did we really need to sign Soup to 4 stinkin' years?

OK, I suspect (and hope) that he'll have a good stretch, like he did last year, and like he does most seasons.

But man, is his stuff really worth 4 years of $42 million? When he's off, even a little, he gets shelled.

Here's to better results tonight!

[MyKenk]

Funny thing is, he pitched the best out of any of our guys last night (except maybe Julio). Definitely were a couple of bright spots last night, but the pitching was iffy, and leaving 10 guys on base is completely unacceptable.

[MyKenk]

The way I see it is, say we signed Suppan to a 2 year deal, meaning he was gone this year. Which FA pitcher would we have overpaid to come in and suck for us?

And Suppan's gonna dominate next year for sure... it's a contract year! :tup:

[MyKenk]

Tyler Maas' predictions for the year:



Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall will combine for over 100 homers. Kendall’s zero homers won’t even be needed in the tally.
Corey Hart’s batter’s box song will be in the genre of Country.
At one point, Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan will forget who is who between them.
New radio personality Corey Provus will set a Brewers broadcasting rookie record of 6,000 polite chuckles after Bob Uecker jokes for fear of losing his job and his life.
Casey McGehee will become a household name. No word on which rural Wisconsin home it will be.
Craig Counsell will be shelved on the disabled list for much of the season with a rare condition. That condition will be “scraped knee caused while playing Skip It.”
Ben Sheets will return late in the season… to pick up things he’ll need while playing for the Rangers.
Bill Hall will hit 30 homers. No joke there.
Rickie Weeks will finally have a breakout season… until inattentive casual fans are told the player they’re cheering for isn’t Rickie Weeks, it’s Bill Hall.
J.J. Hardy will have a season consistent with his past few in terms of both quality and the number of 80s-hair farm girls holding up “Hardy’s Wife” signs during games.
Trevor Hoffman will end the 2009 with his records in tact – most saves all time and oldest person to ever live.
I’ll run into new television personality Telly Hughes at a bar sometime. I’ll accidentally call him “Trenni” after the babe he replaced. Missing her, I’ll keep calling him “Trenni” and hit on him.
Seth McClung – the hefty, fire-crotched flame-thrower from West Virginia – will continue to be loved by Wisconsin, a state who shares those characteristics.
New bench coach Willie Randolph will somehow be fired again over the phone at 3 a.m. by Omar Minaya while in Los Angeles.
So many douchebags wearing shirts made by Ryan Brauns stupid clothing line.
I’ll get a tattoo on the small of my back that features two Brad Nelsons jumping out of the water and curling their bodies to form a heart. And the kanji symbol for life.
Yovani Gallardo won’t win the Cy Young… but he’ll have a damn good season.
David Riske will abruptly retire from baseball to go into the Riske business (dubbing tapes of the movie Risky Business).
The team will struggle at times, and I will remain optimistic. The division isn’t likely, but they have a good team and a playoff appearance is not out of the question.
The Pirates won’t finish in last in the NL Central. The Astros will.

[MyKenk]

When finally reached for comment, Yost said "Hey, Soup pitched great!"

[MyKenk]

West coast night games = :yawn:

:joe:

[Ultimate Anyone?]

I just wish mlb.com would fix their audio feeds so I can listen to the game! :swear:

[Cannonball]

:crying:

:exams:

[Ultimate Anyone?]

:crying:

:exams:

don't forget :swear:

(In fact, there was a lot of :swear: last night. Way too much, if you ask me.)

[MyKenk]

How good has Todd Coffey looked so far this year? And Difelice? Dealin'!!

:koolaid:

[MyKenk]

http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20090414/capt.d589ef16d108453081b83ded40c784a0.aptopix_reds _brewers_baseball_wijp108.jpg

[MyKenk]

Courtesy of Brew Crew Ball (emphasis mine):

In his two starts this year, Jeff Suppan has thrown 67 fastballs. Before reading ahead, do you care to take a guess as to how many times hitters have swung and missed those fastballs? Keep in mind that the league average whiff rate on a fastball is only about 6%, with a very good pitcher inducing swings and misses on about 10-12% of fastballs.

The answer to the question? It is zero. Every time a batter has decided to swing at a Jeff Suppan fastball, they have made contact with it. Even batters who played for the Giants. Batters have swung and missed 8 Jeff Suppan pitches this year-- a curveball, 3 sliders, and 4 changeups.

In his opening day start, Suppan averaged 86.93 miles per hour with his fastball. In Sunday's game, he averaged 87.21 miles per hour. Unsurprisingly, that is right in line with his last two years, his average was below 87 last season, and has been steadily decreasing since this speed data became available in 2002 (he averaged 89.6 mph with the Royals that year).

The break on the fastballs is nothing special anymore, either, and it is quite inconsistent. In these two games, we saw an average horizontal break of 8 inches toward a right-handed hiter and an average vertical break of 8 inches. I wish I had access to data from previous seasons, because it would be interesting to know what Suppan's break was like during the days of his prime-- even if they were propped up by great defenses, he still had some skills.

The general trend for Suppan in his first two years with the Brewers appeared to be of consistent, expected decline. He struck out fewer batters in each of the past two years and began walking more. As sad as the premise seems, we hoped to avoid total catastrophe and Suppan becoming totally unusable. I am not ready to declare that as of now, but his stuff is deteriorating to the point that he is going to have to rely exclusively on good control to stay above replacement level. And as we have seen so far this season (http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/633_P_season_full_2_20090412.png), things are not looking good on the walk prevention front.

In total, Suppan's 8 swings and misses out of 140 total pitches is a 5.7% swinging strike rate. That is not good. Suppan no longer has the stuff to get by as a starter that is above replacement level while walking batters at a rate worse than the league average.

At this point, Suppan needs to get back to a 5:3 strikeout to walk ratio-caliber pitcher. If he is unable to do so, there are several options that are better than him. One of his advantages is his durability, and in the past, his control and stuff were better than replacement pitchers like DiFelice, Green, or Wright by a large enough margin that it made sense to continue to use him even when he was working through struggles. But now, we have a pitcher with stuff that does not induce swings and misses, and his control has been dreadful.

Now we introduce the alternative. Mark DiFelice's average fastball in 2008 was thrown harder than Jeff Suppan's in 2008 or 2009. Mark DiFelice is also capable of striking people out, not walking 3 batters with the bases loaded, and has yet to, in his career, give up 7 runs in 1 inning.

I am all for giving Suppan some time to work out his issues and see if he can regain his usual control. But at what point do you realize that Suppan carries no advantages over DiFelice or McClung? DiFelice, in the starting rotation, would predictably strike out more batters, walk fewer, and his stuff is not noticeably worse than Suppan's at this point (and it might well be better)-- which in general implies that he is not more "hittable" than Suppan. Is the advantage durability and stamina? What good do those do when Suppan has to be taken out after an average of 70 pitches due to pitching poorly? It has been pointed out that a starter who can pitch 170 innings with a 5 ERA talent has some value, and that is true, but if there are three other pitchers available who are capable of a sub-5 ERA talent, that value is almost entirely diminished by the abundance of the other type of pitcher-- if one gets hurt or becomes ineffective, the team can plug in another. That value comes in when the replacement pitchers are the freely available kind that put up 5.50 ERAs. The Brewers are not in this situation, having stockpiled DiFelice, Green, and McClung (Capuano and Wright could also enter into this group of pitchers).

DiFelice's cutter/slider has been dissected by Josh and other analysts before, so I will not get into it too much. It is around 81-82 miles per hour, and it averaged 81.8 in his appearance in last night's game. His hardest pitch of the night was 82.4 miles per hour. The only other pitch he threw last night was a changeup, and those two pitches were split almost 50/50. Mark is also capable of throwing a high-80s fastball, even if he does not feel the need to use it very often. He has used a curveball in the past, as well, though I do not see one in his data from last night. I would expect him to break out the full repitoire if he were to be used as a starter.

The point of the look at DiFelice is to illustrate that Suppan no longer has an advantage, as a pitcher, over DiFelice or other pitchers in stuff, as in break, movement, and velocity. If both showed up to try out for a baseball team today, a coach would start DiFelice-- the guy with the 87 mph fastball and the good cutter and change over Suppan, the guy with about 86, a decent curve and slider and not a whole lot of control. Think about it this way-- if Suppan suddenly learned to walk less than 2 per 9 and strike out more than 6 per nine, we would have a similar pitcher to Mark DiFelice. The only real difference right now in their repitoires is that Suppan throws his curveball and fastball more often than DiFelice does. DiFelice's stellar cutter/slider probably makes up for the difference.

I sometimes think there is this invisible tiering of starting pitchers-- the guys that throw really hard, the guys that throw hard, and the guys that throw normally. I usually put pitchers like Sabathia and Sheets in the top tier, Gallardo and Parra in the second tier, and then bunch pitchers like Bush, Looper, and Suppan in the last tier. That is no longer the case, Suppan has now fallen to a level well below even Bush and Looper, and those 2-3 miles per hour actually can have a very big impact on hittability, especially when Suppan has little control.

Suppan needs to get his control under control, and if he does not, the Brewers need to seriously consider inserting DiFelice into the rotation while Suppan attempts to remember how to throw strikes. I have not mentioned McClung much in this post, but he is capable as well. Suppan does have some value if he is able to regain his ability to throw strikes and basically reinvents himself as a pitcher, but he is going to have to become a pinpoint control man who walks almost nobody to stay in the rotation for the next two years of his contract. I am hesitant to draw too many conclusions from 2 games, but the trends are disturbing enough to continue looking at this issue and beginning to make plans for what will happen if he is unable to begin throwing strikes again.

If Suppan gets back his normal control and drops his BB/9 below 3 throughout the rest of the season, it would be a fine solution to keep him in the rotation, he would not be hurting the team. But if these control issues continue, the team needs to go into crisis management mode, and attempt to keep Suppan from hurting the team by throwing innings in which replacement pitchers would be a much better option. If Doug Melvin is on the same page as me here, I would think he will consider sending DiFelice down to AAA to stretch out while Suppan gets about 2 more starts to prove he has his control back. If he continues to walk batters, a temporary move to the bullpen or the disabled list might be the best course of action.

[MyKenk]

Riske to the DL with "I'm not hurt, but I suck, so, maybe my elbow is tight"-ness.

More importantly...

R.J.!

[Cannonball]

Coffey! He rocks.

[MyKenk]

ToCo, k thnx.

http://www3.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/Milwaukee+Brewers+v+San+Francisco+Giants+ivSkHm2te 4Pl.jpg

[Cannonball]

Meltdown Manny screws up another start. And what awesome relief.

This team smells like caca.

[rekrap]

More importantly...

R.J.!

:shake:

[MyKenk]

:shrug:

[MyKenk]

Wait, what exactly was wrong with RJ's performance?

[MyKenk]

Coffey's for Closers.

or something like that.

:joe:

[Slainte]

I was gonna go with: ToCo. Percolatin'!
Which is waaaaaay better than: ToCo. Creamin', sugar!
Yours works, though. Whatever.

[MyKenk]

Todd Coffey's entrance... in slo-mo. :shudder:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/meech/videos/44/

[Cannonball]

Actually, I couldn't help but notice that when he was on the mound last night. He's got some serious man boobs.

[MyKenk]

Yay for day games.

:party:

[udjw828]

:party:

Who's up for some play-by-play!?!?

[MyKenk]

Hamels could strike out 20 today.

[MyKenk]

10 pitch first inning. way to make him work.

losers.

[udjw828]

2 strikes to Rollins...and he's hit by the pitch...

[Warrior04]

15th game of the year and we're still looking for our first winning streak. Wonderful.

[udjw828]

:shake:

[udjw828]

Hey...did anyone else notice that this Bush fella's throwing a no-no??

[yankeetripper]

Wasn't he dropped in the AO league a few days ago?

[MyKenk]

:yawn:

no surprise, Bushy dealin'

Ho hum.

[udjw828]

No wonder the Phils can't hit him...he's hitting them, first!

[MyKenk]

:sadtrombone:

[yankeetripper]

No wonder the Phils can't hit him...he's hitting them, first!

wonder what the record is for HBP in a no-no? And can you still call it a no-no or is it just a no?:tfh:

[udjw828]

Hit Rollins to start the game...
Take out Hamels, who was pitching pretty well...
Then Werth!! That's Bush-league!

Time to charge the mound!!!

[udjw828]

:tfh: <--Rally cap...

[yankeetripper]

If Dave Bush get 5 more outs, he better buy Bill Hall a real nice dinner tonight.

[MyKenk]

Obligatory Brewer fan post breaking up the nonsense.

:tup:

[MyKenk]

or not.

[MyKenk]

stupid team will NEVER get a shut-out.

[udjw828]

Rally, rally...pitcher's name is Sally!

[MyKenk]

Let bushy finish the game