Your Official Milwaukee Brewers Thread

[Wasp]

Doug Melvin made a poor signing in an artificially inflated free agent market. Lots of teams have terrible contracts on their books. Also, no one asked you.

Actually cannonball asked me. And Suppan was a good pitcher. I mean he probably pitches better than you or me or anyone else on this forum. So relatively speaking he still pitches pretty well as a percentile of the general population. He just isn't major league but that's the Brewers fault for thinking he was. I can't fault Soup for signing a contract that pays him $12.75M for this year and same for last year with a $2M buy out for next year. If someone offered me that kind of money to post on the AO I would be stupid not to sign it, right? The only stupid people were the organization that signed a guy like Soup to a contract commensurate with elite pitchers thinking the Soup ingredients contained gourmet major league pitching when all that was in the soup was washed up dish water and ramen noodles.

[Cannonball]

Actually cannonball asked me.

Did not, Gordo.

[Wasp]

Did not, Gordo.

Well you responded to my post and stated how you felt that the Brewers organization did not suck as bad as Suppan who you wished good riddance too since he sucked. So while technically not a question you engaged in a discussion on suckiness and put forth an argument that the Brewers sucked less than Suppan. I merely responded to your response of my response that Suppan can not be blamed for taking money from a sucky organization. Signing a contract exceeding your value is not sucky but brilliance from Suppan's perspective so he is not really the one who sucked at all. If you want to wish someone good riddance for sucking then you would have to wish good riddance to the Brewer management and organization but unfortunately it looks like you will have to continue to suffer their suckiness for the foreseeable future despite Suppan's departure.

[MyKenk]

Actually cannonball asked me. And Suppan was a good pitcher. I mean he probably pitches better than you or me or anyone else on this forum. So relatively speaking he still pitches pretty well as a percentile of the general population. He just isn't major league but that's the Brewers fault for thinking he was. I can't fault Soup for signing a contract that pays him $12.75M for this year and same for last year with a $2M buy out for next year. If someone offered me that kind of money to post on the AO I would be stupid not to sign it, right? The only stupid people were the organization that signed a guy like Soup to a contract commensurate with elite pitchers thinking the Soup ingredients contained gourmet major league pitching when all that was in the soup was washed up dish water and ramen noodles.
Is anyone blaming Suppan? Anyone, anywhere? It's Melvin's mistake, and everyone knows that. Stop having arguments that don't exist.

[Cannonball]

:pdftt:

Thank goodness for Gallardo.

[Wasp]

Is anyone blaming Suppan? Anyone, anywhere? It's Melvin's mistake, and everyone knows that. Stop having arguments that don't exist.

Yes. Cannonball was blaming Suppan for sucking. Cannonball said Soup sucked and good riddance to him. But now that Suppan is gone the suckitude of the Brewers is not solved. They still suck. Suppan was a demonstration of the suckitude of the organization which remains. He doesn't take the suckitude with him, there is no good riddance to the suckiness which clearly remains with the organization.

[MyKenk]

Yes. Cannonball was blaming Suppan for sucking. Cannonball said Soup sucked and good riddance to him. But now that Suppan is gone the suckitude of the Brewers is not solved. They still suck. Suppan was a demonstration of the suckitude of the organization which remains. He doesn't take the suckitude with him, there is no good riddance to the suckiness which clearly remains with the organization.
Thanks

[Wasp]

Thanks

Your welcome.

[MyKenk]

Your welcome.
Thanks

[MyKenk]

18433

[Cannonball]

Wow. Brewers come from behind to win. That's odd.

[Cannonball]

Even odder is that they held on to win after taking the lead.

[Cannonball]

2 home victories in a row. Very strange indeed.

[MyKenk]

:popcorn:

[Chronus]

:swear: Blackburn is so garbage.

This is some bullcrap, at least the Mets have been beating up on the Tigers.

[MyKenk]

Oh well.

[MyKenk]

First sweep of the twins since 1996.

[MyKenk]

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/bb279/sussemilch/twins-bonk.jpg

[Cohete009]

Go back home u dumb twinkies.

[gomer_tree]

Are we really making fun of another team? Shouldn't we at least wait until we're, say, 5 games below 0.500?

[MyKenk]

Are we really making fun of another team? Shouldn't we at least wait until we're, say, 5 games below 0.500?

Why? We accomplished something we haven't done in 15 years, why not celebrate it? You think a team has to be good to celebrate it's small victories? Well, then this Brewer team hasn't had anything to celebrate in what, 28 years now?

[Cannonball]

Way to go, Villanueva. Way to go, lame offense.

Oh well, at least Suppan still sucks. 5.2 IP, 9H, 4R, 3ER. Actually, for him, that's a pretty good outing.

[MyKenk]

Getting ready for the series:


http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/bb279/sussemilch/choir-of-****ing-angels.jpg

Damn. Censored!

[MyKenk]

:popcorn:

[Cannonball]

Hi everybody! I'm Alcides Escobar, and I really like flubbing easy ground balls because, you know, it's fun! And I don't like to hit because no one else on the team does either!

Thanks!

[MyKenk]

Hi everybody! I'm Alcides Escobar, and I really like flubbing easy ground balls because, you know, it's fun! And I don't like to hit because no one else on the team does either!

Thanks!
The entire team is pretty much horrible defensively.

[Cannonball]

The Pittsburgh Pirates...the only team that makes the Brewers look good by comparison.

Now, why can't the Cubbies beat the Pirates???

[Cohete009]

Its the Cubs. And they sook. Real bad.

[Cannonball]

Nice job, Brewers. Wasting a perfectly good outing by Bush. I hope you feel proud of yourselves. Now go stand in a corner and think about what you've done.

[Cohete009]

Have fun back on the DL DD.

GL LoCa!

[MyKenk]

Odd move. Hopefully he plays in RF everyday. Then again, hopefully Gomez plays everyday in CF.

:shrug:

[MyKenk]

Nice job, Brewers. Wasting a perfectly good outing by Bush. I hope you feel proud of yourselves. Now go stand in a corner and think about what you've done.

Getting shut down by good pitchers isn't something to be too ashamed of. Now the Braves, they should feel bad about only scoring 2 runs on Dave "Blind Squirrel" Bush.

[Cannonball]

Thank goodness for those Pirates. Karstens wasn't half bad, either. But not good enough for the juggernaut Brew Crew!

Congrats to Capuano on a fine outing.

[MyKenk]

:lol: Juggernaut? a bunt single and 2 home runs? Pathetic offensive showing.

[Cannonball]

Should have used the red font. Yes, it was pathetic, but a win is a win.

So put that in your moustache and chew on it.

[MyKenk]

:lol: you got it.

[dlwktb]

I'll be at the Brewers-Nats game this Saturday. No particular reason, just haven't seen Miller Park yet.

[dlwktb]

I did Wrigley and Miller Park in the same day on Saturday. Wow, is that a contrast. Miller Park is very nice, but there is a lot going on. A car drives on the warning track during every pitching change, the sound system is blaring 95% of the time. Good concessions, though, and not terribly expensive (compared to other parks, not compared to the real world). And a very entertaining game. Blown save by the Brewers and then they win it in the bottom of the 9th. Good stuff.

[Cannonball]

the sound system is blaring 95% of the time.

Yeah, the constant sound is annoying. But.....

BREWERS WIN!!!!

[Ultimate Anyone?]

I know I'm a little late saying this, but welcome back Uecker! Hasn't been the same without ya!

[Jables]

:lol: Just ask Adam Dunn...

[MyKenk]

So. Um. Corey Hart got a 3 year extension.

Thoughts? I've got about 5 different scenarios which could play out now.

[Cannonball]

He will play out the 3 years, putting up worse numbers in each successive year.

[MyKenk]

He will play out the 3 years, putting up worse numbers in each successive year.
Like Ryan Braun is?

[dlwktb]

From an outsiders perspective: I haven't looked at Corey Hart's peripherals so I don't know how lucky/unlucky he's getting or how likely/unlikely his current performance is to continue. What I do know is that at this very moment I have my highest opinion ever of Corey Hart as a baseball player. I've never thought he was better than I do right now. Generally speaking, that is the worst time to sign a player to a longer term deal.

[MyKenk]

From an outsiders perspective: I haven't looked at Corey Hart's peripherals so I don't know how lucky/unlucky he's getting or how likely/unlikely his current performance is to continue. What I do know is that at this very moment I have my highest opinion ever of Corey Hart as a baseball player. I've never thought he was better than I do right now. Generally speaking, that is the worst time to sign a player to a longer term deal.
Unless it's below market value. There's some regression built into this contract, and the fact that it buys out the next 2 arbitration years of guaranteed raises, makes it a pretty good deal, imo.

[Cohete009]

Makes Hart more tradable in future.

[Cohete009]

Gamel to 1st.

[Cohete009]

Prince bye bye.

[Cohete009]

Trade Weeks.

[Cohete009]

Bring up Lawrie.

[Cohete009]

Position Players:
LF Braun
CF Cain
RF Hart
3B McGehee
SS Escobar
2B Lawrie
1B Gamel
C Lucroy

[dlwktb]

Unless it's below market value. There's some regression built into this contract, and the fact that it buys out the next 2 arbitration years of guaranteed raises, makes it a pretty good deal, imo.

Fair enough.

[MyKenk]

Position Players:
LF Braun
CF Cain
RF Hart
3B McGehee
SS Escobar
2B Lawrie
1B Gamel
C Lucroy
I'd be shocked if they don't extend Weeks. And I'm ready for Casey to go away.

LF Braun
CF Cain
RF Hart
3B Gamel
SS Escobar
2B Weeks
1B Lawrie
C Lucroy

[MyKenk]

Also: Lawrie is worse at 2B than Gamel is at 3B.

[Cohete009]

But we have a great teacher for Lawrie!

You recall how bad Weeks was at 2B originally.

[MyKenk]

Who's the great teacher for Lawrie? Because if it's the same one that fixed Weeks, he's either gonna be managing or gone next year.

[Cohete009]

Willie will be here.

[MyKenk]

Yeah, as the manager, not as the IF coach.

[MyKenk]

Nailing the Corey Hart Extension:
Analyzing the Corey Hart extension

Running a mediocre mid-market team is hard. That sounds like snark, but I'm serious. When you have $150 million to play with every year, like the Yankees or Red Sox, you can fill just about every hole with a free agent and then win 90 games. If you're in the $50-$60 million range, everybody knows you have to rebuild.

But the middle is trickier. Think about the 2008 Brewers: They had the advantage of several above-average below market guys, so money could be spent filling holes, on guys like Mike Cameron and Salomon Torres (and ultimately C.C. Sabathia), and the team could afford to keep a great player or two around, as was the case with Ben Sheets.

That's the framework we have to use to evaluate Corey Hart's deal. It's not hard to make the case that Hart could be worth his $26.5 million, while of course it remains to be seen how he'll produce for the next three years. That much money should buy about five or six wins on the open market, and I'd guess he'll be worth about that. But given that the 2011, '12, and '13 Brewers will only have payroll space for so many guys priced at open-market levels, should Hart be one of them?

The deal in a vacuum

The structure of the deal, it appears, is a $1MM signing bonus, $6.5MM next year, $9MM in 2012, and $10MM in 2013. Because baseball salaries drift ever further upwards, those numbers will feel a little lower come '12 and '13, especially if the economy rebounds. In comparing the yearly salaries to current players, it may be more helpful to think of it as $8.5MM and $9MM for the last two years.

At what is essentially $9MM per year, Hart is being paid as a two-win player, or slightly better than one. In Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as in everything else, Hart has been crazily unpredictable. This year, he's been worth 2.8 WAR, putting him on pace for about 4 by the end of the season. His breakout season in 2007 was worth 4.9, but the next two years were 0.9 and 1.4.

So who is the real Corey Hart? I wish I had an answer to that question. His strikeout and walk rates haven't changed much. His line drive percentage has stayed the same, so this year's boost in BABIP may be attributable only to luck. He is hitting more fly balls, and more of them are leaving the park--there's probably something skill-based going on there.

So, weaselly as it is, I have to conclude that the "real" Corey is somewhere in between this year's All-Star and the 2008-09 disappointment. The most recent CHONE projections forecast him as a 2.4 win player (per season), and that seems about right to me. He'll probably be "worth" his contract, but it's unlikely that the deal will turn out to be a major coup for Milwaukee.

The deal in context

That brings us back to the bigger picture. The fact that Doug Melvin held on to both Fielder and Hart at the deadline suggests that he may think the team is set up to contend next year. If so, perhaps he did everyone a favor by saving a bit of money on Hart's last arbitration year.

In the long term, the bigger question is what I opened this post with. A mid-market team is going to pay the going free-agent rate for some of its players. If the Brewers contend in, say, 2012, that will be the case in Milwaukee. But should Hart be among them?

This is a very difficult question to answer, since it depends on how certain prospects develop and who is available in the '11 and '12 free agent classes. A definitive analysis would have so many "maybes" that it would be almost worthless. But my gut says that Hart is not worth market rate to the Brewers.

Here are two of the reasons why. First off, he plays an unimportant defensive position. To me, right field, left field, and first base are kind of like the bullpen. If you can get a super-premium player (like Fielder or Braun), you should--it's like having Mariano Rivera pitching the 9th inning. It's worth the big bucks.

But Hart is not a super-premium player. Just as a good GM can usually find a solid 7th- or 8th-inning guy for peanuts, he can find a corner outfielder able to do the job. Even some rich teams believe this. Over the last 10 or 12 years, the Yankees have had some stars at 1B, LF, and RF, but they've also had 90-win teams with very pedestrian players there.

If it turns out that the Brewers do need a right fielder going into the 2012 season, there will probably be one on the open market. Sometimes it's hard to find a solid catcher or shortstop, but there are always decent corner outfielders available.

The other reason is that with Braun locked in to left field, the Crew has blocked a lot of potential paths for prospects. Mat Gamel may be a corner outfielder. Brett Lawrie may have his future there. Heck, if Caleb Gindl keeps advancing, he'll be stuck in a corner. If Fielder gets swapped for prospects in the offseason, there may well be more guys in the system who can't stick at their primary position.

An overload of quality players at a certain position can be written off as a good problem to have, but it's a less good problem in a corner. Except for super-premium players, teams have what they need--every other club (even the Astros now) has good-hitting prospects drifting down the defensive spectrum. That makes the trade value of a right fielder less than you might think. It's rare that someone is desperate for a right fielder.

All together now

The point isn't that Lawrie is blocked. Or that $9MM to Hart will hamstring the Brewers chances of signing somebody good in the next two years. (Though it might be the straw that breaks Mat Gamel's back.)

The point is that Doug Melvin locked himself into a commitment he didn't need to make. Hart is not the face of this team, and his presence isn't going to sell 250,000 more tickets. He's a complementary player, and first half aside, that's his future.

In 2012, it's unlikely we'll point to the Corey Hart deal as the reason for another 3rd-place finish. Maybe Corey will have another .290/.330/.500 season and appear to be worth a bit more than the money he's paid. But maybe we'll have parted with a prospect by then, or left him to rot in Triple-A. Or perhaps we'll have passed on 2012's Bobby Abreu, an all-star player available for $5MM on a one-year deal.

Mid-market GMs have more freedom than their small-market counterparts, but they still must do whatever they can to retain their flexibility. They don't have enough money to solve every problem by writing a check, so they must find other ways to build contending teams. By locking up a pretty good player at the going market rate, Doug Melvin just cost himself a fair bit of flexibility. And he doesn't have much to show for it.

[Warrior04]

LaTroy Hawkins ejected for hitting the jersey of Alfonso Soriano. I guess Hawkins should have thrown at his head. You don't get ejected for that.

[Slainte]

Fo realz? :shake: Did Macha get run instantly for the HBP as well, or did he come out to argue Hawkins getting thrown out and get kicked out for arguing?

[Cannonball]

Meltdown Manny strikes again! Didn't help that the pen melted down as well. O well, Parra is a turd. Almost as sucky as Suppan.

[Lee Mellon]

Eyeballed the box score last night on the mj. Gave up with one on, one out and a 2-2 count in the ninth and down 5-1. Sheesh. What a comeback! It's almost as if the teams traded uniforms.

[MyKenk]

Cross posted:

http://i918.photobucket.com/albums/ad25/Mykenk/NLCentral.png

[Cannonball]

Bushy on fire! Axford going old school with multi-inning saves! World Series here we come!

(please don't wake me yet)

[MyKenk]

:lol: bushy on fire. :glwt:

[MountainHawk]

Cross posted:

http://i918.photobucket.com/albums/ad25/Mykenk/NLCentral.png
That appears out of date.

NL East is now 72-62 (.537) vs Central and 79-75 (.513) vs the West.
NL West is 89-62 (.589) vs Central

[MyKenk]

That appears out of date.

NL East is now 72-62 (.537) vs Central and 79-75 (.513) vs the West.
NL West is 89-62 (.589) vs Central

It wasn't out of date when I posted it ;)

[Cannonball]

Phew! A narrow escape from a perfectly avoidable situation. But hey, a win's a win!

Ha ha, Cards can't even beat the Crew. Suckers!

[MountainHawk]

It wasn't out of date when I posted it ;)
Oops, I just assume baseball threads are like the Phillies one, and 2 posts ago was today. :)

[MyKenk]

Yah, not for garbage teams, sorry :shrug:

[Cannonball]

It's just another Meltdown Manny,
Stinks like a fanny,
Throws like a granny,
Just another Meltdown Manny.

[MyKenk]

:shrug: Did better against the best team in the NL than Gallardo did.

[Cannonball]

True dat.

I just don't like Parra because he implodes way more often than Gallardo.

[BallaActuary]

Can someone explain to me how this team is:

2nd in runs scored in away games
20th in runs scored in home games

Most teams have more trouble scoring away than at home, but this is odd to me. San Francisco's offense is similar (struggles at home, decent on road), but the weather plays a huge factor in that. The Brewers have nearly the same number of home runs both home and away so that suggests the stadium doesn't have 495 fences. I know they have had some monster games (i.e. 20 runs vs. Pitt), but even if I cap these games, they still rank very high on the road and average at home.

I'm starting to really get into baseball betting and don't know much about the NL Central especially Milwaukee so this will help a lot

Gracias

[Cohete009]

Just look at Braun's home vs away stats. Yuck.

[MyKenk]

Advice: Bet against the NL central.

[BallaActuary]

Just look at Braun's home vs away stats. Yuck.

...but what's the reason behind the big discrepancy?

[BallaActuary]

Advice: Bet against the NL central.

I know the Central sucks, but that doesn't explain why Milwaukee can't hit at home :shrug:

[Warrior04]

From the file of WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!?!

Carlos Gomez: "I'm the best CF on the team." (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/101442689.html)

[MyKenk]

From the file of WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!?!

Carlos Gomez: "I'm the best CF on the team." (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/101442689.html)
If he's talking defense, he's right, he's the best center FIELDER on the team. Also, not a bad attitude for a kid to have.


In other news, Gallardo & a clubhouse attendant were robbed at gunpoint at 2:30 this morning... :yikes:

[MyKenk]

...but what's the reason behind the big discrepancy?
He'll tell you it's the shadows in Miller Park during afternoon games. Haven't looked at his 4 way Day/Night/Home/Away splits, but Day/Home is absolutely horrible, I know.

[Cannonball]

Counsell goes yard on Cueto! HA!!! Could have been Counsell's last major league home run, which, given his non-use of steroids, definitely makes him the HR king! All hail Counsell!!!

[Cannonball]

Bye bye Macha.

But seriously, with that crap pitching staff, I wonder if the greatest coach in the world could have got them to 0.500.

[MyKenk]

Hearing there's an agreement in place with Bobby Valentine. I'm hoping it's an agreement to not interview him again, but I'm assuming it's to manage the team :facepalm: :wall:

[Slainte]

Ick. Please no.

[yankeetripper]

You'll never know it's him.

[Slainte]

The Milwaukee Brewers have hired Ron Roenicke as their new manager, according to multiple media reports on Tuesday.

Roenicke has been the Los Angeles Angels bench coach under manager Mike Scioscia since 2006 and was the team's third base coach from 2000-06.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5756877

[MyKenk]

:party: x 100000000000

[Slainte]

:tup:

[gomer_tree]

So, this is a good move then?

Honestly, I have no idea.

[yankeetripper]

i think mykenk is just happy it isn't Bobby V.

[MyKenk]

i think mykenk is just happy it isn't Bobby V.

That's 50% of it. I also like everything I've read about the guy, and hiring the bench coach of the Angels seems to be a pretty deft move. Maybe I'll post more about him tomorrow.

But I won't.

[Halfmoon]

Any concerns about another American League guy? I keep having doubts with anyone from the AL trying to come into the NL and play "small ball" or handling pitcher substitutions.

[MyKenk]

Any concerns about another American League guy? I keep having doubts with anyone from the AL trying to come into the NL and play "small ball" or handling pitcher substitutions.
Nope. No doubts.

[MyKenk]

This was a win-win trade.

Brewers starting pitching was horrific last season, posting a 4.65 ERA and a 4.43 FIP. Shaun Marcum should be an immediate fix to a rotation with two clear holes heading into the offseason. In a relatively neutral park and in the extraordinarily difficult AL East, Marcum posted a 3.64 ERA and 3.8 bWAR (Baseball-Reference’s implementation) along with a similarly impressive 3.74 FIP and 3.5 fWAR (FanGraphs’s implementation). Marcum is ideally a #3 starter, but he slots in right behind Gallardo, giving this staff a legitimate 1-2 punch that has been lacking since 2008. Although this is certainly no CC-Sheets (or Carpenter-Wainwright) combination, the top of the Brewers rotation now competes quite well with most National League squads. This also allows the Brewers to shift Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson back to #3 and #4 in the rotation, spots that are far more in line their production levels. Marcum is entering his second season of arbitration this season, meaning he will be under team control at reasonable rates for the 2011 and 2012 season, and indications are that the Brewers may attempt to sign him long term.

In order to acquire Marcum, however, the Brewers were forced to part with their top prospect, Brett Lawrie. There’s little doubt about Lawrie’s bat. As a 20 year old in AA, Lawrie posted a .285/.346/.449 line with 30 stolen bases in 609 plate appearances with AA Hunstville. Even though that’s not elite power, the typical 20 year old isn’t able to create those kind of numbers at such a high level. The question for Lawrie is defense – both in the sense of his defensive skill as well as his ultimate positional home. He already busted at catcher and is now considered to be a second baseman. However, Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein isn’t convinced.

That makes a big difference in determining Lawrie’s value. A second baseman with the production Lawrie has shown in the minors is almost certainly a star. A left fielder? A useful starter, for sure, but not nearly as special.

Although I think attitude concerns are typically overblown, it would be remiss to not mention Lawrie’s desire to pull out of the Arizona Fall League at the end of his minor league season. Keith Law has mentioned before that Lawrie has had “friction” with coaches, whatever that means. There’s a very good chance that this is meaningless, and talent is talent, but attitude problems are never a good thing.

Marcum has his own red flag. He missed the entire 2009 season with Tommy John surgery, and prior to that, he only managed 150 IP in both 2007 and 2008. Although he did manage 195 IP in 2010, that’s no guarantee going forward. All pitchers are injury risks to start with, and prior injuries are by no means a good sign.

For the Blue Jays, they dealt from a position of strength and receive what could be a major piece in Alex Anthopolous’s attempt to load the team for a run in the dangerous AL East. For the Brewers, they deal into a position of weakness, filling one of their biggest holes in an attempt to, ostensibly, make a run in the easiest division in baseball. Brett Lawrie could become a star, but by the same token, this move could be what it takes to vault Milwaukee into the playoffs. Each team gets what they want here, and in terms of value, I think, as do experts, that both teams received a fair deal here.

[MyKenk]

:bump:

[win diesel]

:tup:

[Force of Interest]

:lol:

[gomer_tree]

Am I missing something?

[yankeetripper]

Am I missing something?

compare the Phillies & Brewers thread titles.

[gomer_tree]

Ah.

Thanks.

[MyKenk]

Rumor from a reliable sources source is that the Brewers have a deal in place for Grienke that might be announced Monday. Skeptical. But this guy has been right 95% of the time before. So it's not totally baseless, most likely.

[SirVLCIV]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/fanblogs/berniescrew.html

Report: Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke
By Jim Breen
Dec. 18, 2010 9:39 p.m.

**Disclaimer: This is a rumor that has not yet been confirmed from within the organization, but I feel comfortable enough with the information and the source to publish this rumor. Please just keep in mind that this is only a rumor and should be treated as such until further notice.**

A source informed me earlier today that the Milwaukee Brewers have come to a preliminary agreement with the Kansas City Royals for a deal that would send pitcher Zack Greinke to Milwaukee.

The rumored agreement would send shortstop Alcides Escobar, center fielder Lorenzo Cain, and right-hander Jeremy Jeffress to Kansas City in return for Greinke, shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and approximately $2M.

The extra $2M is to offset a portion of the $31M that would come to Milwaukee in the trade. Coincidentally, Betancourt's buyout for the 2012 season is $2M -- so that number could make a good deal of sense, if the Brewers have no intention of keeping the shortstop.

I had been told that the Milwaukee Brewers were originally informed that they had "no chance" of landing Greinke during the Winter Meetings, but that could have changed significantly once Greinke went public with his demands to leave the Royals.

The deal is expected to be announced on Monday.

[UPDATE 11:23pm]

Andrew Wagner of OnMilwaukee.com is now adding on to my earlier report and says he has confirmed that Zack Greinke will be pitching in Milwaukee next season, pending a physical -- only that right-hander Jake Odorizzi has also been added to the deal.

[MyKenk]

:squee:

[Lee Mellon]

Glad to see the crew knows what to do with Yuni - pass him on.

[trondogss]

Brewers have gone from one of the worst piching staffs to a pretty good one this offseason. With Greinke, Marcum and maybe healthy Gallardo, they may be in the top 5 in the NL as far as a 1, 2, 3 in their rotation. Then add Wolf on top of that.

The sad part is they lost what I consider a potential great SS (defensivley) and OF (Cain). From what I read, the two minor league pitchers were pretty legit as well (except Jeffress, who can throw 100 mph, can't stop doing drugsd).

What is next? Do the Brewers try to extend Fielder? All I know is that they are now probably better than my beloved Cubs now.

[win diesel]

Not bad, still like how the Phillies matchup with them though

[trondogss]

Not bad, still like how the Phillies matchup with them though

The Phillies have the best rotation in the league. Possibly the best rotation we have seen in years.

[win diesel]

The Phillies have the best rotation in the league. Possibly the best rotation we have seen in years.

Agreed, I like Halladay over Grienke, I give Lee the nod over Marcum, like seeing Oswalt take the ball over Gallardo, and in the battle of lefties feel good with Hamels over da Wolf..so yeah, I like they way they match up there

[MyKenk]

Yep, no ones gonna say this rotation is better than the Phillies, but, it's better than the Cubs, and better than the Cardinals, and that's all that matters.

The more I think about this, the more I like the idea. Looks like the team might finally understand what approach they have to take...

[MyKenk]

Roster Stabbage:

Lineup
Weeks
Hart
Braun
Fielder
McGehee
Betancourt
Gomez
Lucroy

Bench
Nieves
Gamel
Counsell
Boggs
Dickerson

Rotation
Greinke
Gallardo
Marcum
Wolf
Narveson

Bullpen
Loe
Hawkins
Braddock
McClendon
Parra
Egan
Axford

Not 100% confident in the backup catcher or that 2nd to last bullpen spot. I think they'll give stetter another look (assuming Roenicke knows how to use LOOGY's), and I'm not sold on having a rule 5 guy on the roster all year next year. Maybe Justin James or Kintzler takes Egans spot?

[dlwktb]

Yep, no ones gonna say this rotation is better than the Phillies, but, it's better than the Cubs, and better than the Cardinals, and that's all that matters.

The more I think about this, the more I like the idea. Looks like the team might finally understand what approach they have to take...

It's better than the Cardinals? Debatable.

Regardless, the offense is better than the Cards, so it should be a good race.

[MyKenk]

It's better than the Cardinals? Debatable.

Regardless, the offense is better than the Cards, so it should be a good race.

True, it's debatable. But the fact that it's debatable marks about a zillion times improvement from last season.

[dlwktb]

True, it's debatable. But the fact that it's debatable marks about a zillion times improvement from last season.

Very true. NL Central will be quite interesting next year.

[Cohete009]

:bump: this thread in April. Until then, :yawn:

[MyKenk]

:shrug: Some people like baseball. Nothing else to follow right now. Might as well speculate.

[MyKenk]

:bump: this thread in April. Until then, :yawn:
Also, I don't want to miss opening day.

[trondogss]

It's better than the Cardinals? Debatable.

Regardless, the offense is better than the Cards, so it should be a good race.Let's take a look at them:
Greinke/Gallardo vs. Wainwright/Carp

I give this one to the Cards, but health can be a huge issue as Carp's past may eventually catch up to him.

Marcum vs. Garcia
I give this one to the Brewers. Garcia had a strong rookie season, but it seems the 2nd year in the bigs is one of the toughest. Until Garcia puts two good seasons together, I can't put too much faith in to a repeat performance. Randy Wells had a 1.21 increase to his ERA in his 2nd full year. Hopefully for the Cards sake, he doesn't have a 2nd year slump.

Wolf vs. Westbrook
Brewers. The stats are pretty close, but my personal opinion is that Wolf is more consistant than Westbrook. Wolf has a career record of 114-97 and Westbrook is 73-75.

Narveson vs. Lohse
Tie. Lohse is horrible and Naveson is too new to know what he can do.

My pick, Brewers have the edge. A good 1-2 does not make the entire rotation great.

[MountainHawk]

I like the back end of the Brewers rotation a lot better, but I think I might lean Cardinals for the playoff rotation .. Carp and Wainright, if healthy, are a tough 1-2 for playoff teams to face off against, and Grienke isn't really proven in the postseason, so he's a bit of a question mark.

[MyKenk]

I like the back end of the Brewers rotation a lot better, but I think I might lean Cardinals for the playoff rotation .. Carp and Wainright, if healthy, are a tough 1-2 for playoff teams to face off against, and Grienke isn't really proven in the postseason, so he's a bit of a question mark.
Agreed.

[MyKenk]

http://ow.ly/i/6yeE/original

:ht:

[MyKenk]

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/bb279/sussemilch/Dec2010/merryxmasgreinke.jpg

[clonehead]

Wolf vs. Westbrook
Brewers. The stats are pretty close, but my personal opinion is that Wolf is more consistant than Westbrook. Wolf has a career record of 114-97 and Westbrook is 73-75.Comparing W-L records? The Tribe made it to the playoffs twice in Westbrook's 8.5 seasons and only finished above .500 as a team 3 times during the past decade.

[MyKenk]

xFIP over last 4 years

Wolf: 4.36,4.29, 4.90, 4.34
Westbrook: 4.37, 3.91, .... , 4.02

Westbrook may be slightly better, but is far less durable, to the point where they probably balance themselves out over the course of the year.

[MyKenk]

Why was this the right situation for you as opposed to Washington: “I don’t know. I don’t really want to comment too much on the Washington thing. You could talk to their GM about it, probably. But the main reason I preferred to get out of Kansas City was I just wanted to be on a team that was trying to win this year, because as a pitcher you don’t really know how long your career is going to be. I just really wanted to be in a place where they were playing to win games right away. So Milwaukee’s obviously that place, and I’m just really happy that it worked out.”

Milwaukee was one of teams included in your no-trade clause. What made you change your mind: “We put the list together pretty fast, and the way I was kind of thinking about it at the time was Prince, who is a very good player, had just one year left, and I didn’t know if they were planning on trading him or what the plans of Milwaukee were this off-season. I kind of just wanted to see if they were going to try to re-stock a little bit, then it wouldn’t have been one of my first choices. But when they decided to keep Prince and then traded for Marcum, I would have put them in probably the top three teams I would have preferred to get traded to. So it all worked out good. You can always change it to put them on; you can’t change it to take them off.”

How exciting is this for you: “For me, it was great. When I found out about it, I told my wife it was probably the happiest I’d been since I got drafted, like, 10 years ago. In baseball – I was happy when we got married, too.”

What do you know about the Brewers. One of your friends, David Riske, obviously played here: “Not a ton. I know that they’ve got some really good offense on the team. They seem to have an attitude about them, and I kind of like that. Kendall came over to Kansas City from this place, and he was great for our team. So I’m assuming he got some of his attitude from this organization.”

So you like the Brewers’ swagger: “Yeah, I think so. I mean, I haven’t met many of the players. But I’m assuming it’ll be pretty good.”

How excited are you to play with Braun and Fielder, and have you talked to them yet: “I haven’t talked to anyone. It’s kind of cool – I see Rickie. He lives in Orlando and I live in Orlando we I see him probably once or twice every off-season. It’s usually the other way – I was always telling him I was trying to get the Royals to trade for him the past couple of years. I always thought we’d end up playing together because we live like, five minutes from each other, but never really ended up playing together. So it’s kind of cool it’s going to happen that way. Played with Prince a couple times, too. He lives in Orlando also.”

When this all started, did you think you’d land in Milwaukee: “You know what? Going into the draft I thought Milwaukee was going to be the team to pick me. It was originally the first place I’d start my career at, but you don’t really have that much control of it after that.”

Will you welcome not being the focal point here, like you were in Kansas City: “I mean, it doesn’t matter what the focus is. It’s nice because there’s a bunch of good players to help do stuff with. I’m looking forward to watching some of these guys play. I watched Prince do the Home Run Derby, and that was really the only time I’d seen him play. It was really fun to watch. He was my favorite to watch at the Home Run Derby.”

Can you describe yourself as a person: “I don’t know. I don’t really like talking. Really, I like playing sports where it’s a competition, no matter what it is. Trying to beat someone, that’s probably my favorite thing to do. That’s it.”

What have your conversations with Doug Melvin been like: “Just small talk. Nothing major. I told him that back when they traded for CC that I was hoping that it was going to be me, because I think they were talking about trading for me, too. Riske was here and probably he and (Jimmy) Gobble were probably my two best buddies in Kansas City, so I thought it would be real fun to get back together with Riske.”

How instrumental was the agent change in getting the deal done: “I don’t think it had anything to do with it. It was just something I was going to do for a long time, and I was under contract, so there was no reason to do it. Just figured I might as well do it now. It probably didn’t play one percent into anything.”

Is this a World Series contender now: “I’m not really thinking that big because the division’s still pretty tough. I’m sure the other teams are good too, but St. Louis and Cincinnati are really good teams, and it’ll be tough just to get there. So if you’re not first place, then you have to win the wild card. And that’s tough, too. I don’t have much playoff experience, so I don’t know how it all works. I’m just hoping to get there first.”

How much did a move to the National League factor into your decision to come to the Brewers, and to be able to hit: “That’s a big plus. I’ve always wanted to be in the National League for that reason. It’s just fun. I got to hit in Atlanta last year and got to break up a double play at second. I mean, it’s just more fun playing that way.”

Have you found you’ve been able to encourage others by coming back from what you did and be able to return to playing well: “I don’t know; some people tell me that every now and again. Not very often. I don’t know, I don’t think about it a whole lot. You just kind of go through it and there’s nothing you can do about it.”

Did it make you a stronger person: “You know what? I think it did, back before I left baseball and before I got on the medicine. Just having to go through it every day – that definitely made me a stronger person. And once I got on the medicine, that made it a lot easier. But going through the stuff before definitely made me a lot stronger.”

With your wife being a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader, does that mean you won’t be a Packer fan: “Actually, she doesn’t like the Cowboys. She did then but now she doesn’t for some reason. I’ve never been a Green Bay fan, though. Sorry about that. I like Aaron Rodgers for fantasy as a quarterback, but he got drafted too high in our league this year. I almost worked out a trade for him and Greg Jennings, but it fell through.”

So you know the difficulties involved with making trades: “Yeah. Well, the problem probably in baseball, too, is you always want to get something but you like what you have, and it’s hard to give up what you have. In fantasy football, too.”


:lol:

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/Greinke10%20copy.jpg

[MyKenk]

http://royals.mlblogs.com/assets_c/2010/01/DeJesus%20and%20Greinke-thumb-500x305-1748271.jpg

Greinke is thrifty.

[MyKenk]

I love this kid. And will be posting stories that I probably should have already read. I don't care

Guacamole is on Zack Greinke’s (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7257/) mind. He enjoys guacamole, unless it’s chunky. He doesn’t like avocados, actually, and when his fiancée told him that doesn’t make any sense, he shrugged his shoulders. Guacamole is of paramount importance to the best pitcher in the American League because his favorite burrito place just raised the price by 30 cents.

“I like the guacamole,” Greinke said. “Now, I don’t really love the guacamole. So I get it when I feel like it. They changed their guacamole from $1.50 to $1.80. I mean, $1.50 is already pretty darn high. So they changed it to $1.80, and I’ll never again get guacamole.”


“It’s not about the guacamole itself,” Greinke said. “I just don’t want to let them win.”

[yankeetripper]

Are you sure he isn't an actuary? Dude makes what $13M per, now he's bitching about $0.30 more for guac?

[trondogss]

http://royals.mlblogs.com/assets_c/2010/01/DeJesus%20and%20Greinke-thumb-500x305-1748271.jpg

Greinke is thrifty.

Lucky guy.

[MyKenk]

Updated Roster Stabbage:

Lineup
Weeks
Hart
Braun
Fielder
McGehee
Betancourt
Gomez
Lucroy

Bench
Nieves
Maysonet
Counsell
Boggs
Dickerson

Rotation
Greinke
Gallardo
Marcum
Wolf
Narveson

Bullpen
Loe
Hawkins
Braddock
Green
Parra
James
Axford

[MyKenk]

Dammit, this is getting annoying. Updated to reflect the Saito signing.

Lineup
Weeks
Hart
Braun
Fielder
McGehee
Betancourt
Gomez
Lucroy

Bench
Nieves
Maysonet
Counsell
Boggs
Dickerson

Rotation
Greinke
Gallardo
Marcum
Wolf
Narveson

Bullpen
Loe
Hawkins
Braddock
Green
Parra
Saito
Axford

[Cohete009]

Why not just cross off James and add Saito?

[MyKenk]

I did?

[MyKenk]

Also, i'd like to change the Green placement to "whoever wins out of DiFelice, Dillard, Egan, Estrada, Green, James, Kintzler, Mecedes, Rogers, and Segovia."

[GuineaPig]

So is there any reason to not think the brewers are the team to beat in the nl central?

[DixieFlyer]

So is there any reason to not think the brewers are the team to beat in the nl central?

I can think of a few: Pujols, Rasmus, Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright

[MyKenk]

I can think of a few: Pujols, Rasmus, Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright
Eh. Brewers are pretty close on offense, and have better top to bottom pitching. Plus, the Cardinals defense is hilariously bad.

[GuineaPig]

Eh. Brewers are pretty close on offense, and have better top to bottom pitching. Plus, the Cardinals defense is hilariously bad.

This.

MyKenk, think Saito will play a significant role? He's old but last year's numbers are pretty solid.

[MyKenk]

This.

MyKenk, think Saito will play a significant role? He's old but last year's numbers are pretty solid.
I think so. I think he's the best arm in the bullpen right now. Yeah, he's old, and can't pitch a ton of innings, but I think the gamble is that with the new rotation, the bullpen won't NEED to pitch as many innings, so you can do away with "quantity" guys like Todd Coffey and get "quality" guys like Saito. I also like that he's got closer experience, given that Axford WAS just a rookie, and is bound to at least run into a little trouble. The whole Brewers staff looks really really good to me, and I know some of that comes from homerism, but the rotation is obviously solid, and the bullpen looks great, and that's not something I've heard discussed a lot.

Here's a pretty solid article on the bullpen situation, by the way:

Yesterday, the Milwaukee Brewers continued to upgrade their big league roster, agreeing to a one-year contract with right-handed reliever Takashi Saito.

The organization has not yet officially signed Saito because the Brewers' office is closed for the holidays, but when they do complete the official paperwork, the 40-man roster will be full. This means the Brewers would have to remove someone from the roster (via designating for assignment or a trade) to add anyone else this offseason.

Given that fact, the Brewers are likely done adding any significant pieces this winter. They may add a couple non-roster invitees once Spring Training approaches in February, but the organization seemingly believes that Saito is the final piece to the puzzle in Milwaukee.

The Brewers' bullpen was crowded and a bit nebulous before the Saito deal, but adding Saito to the mix has since cleared up the situation immensely. Here is how the current bullpen probably looks at the current moment:

Closer: RHP John Axford
Setup Man: RHP Takashi Saito
Setup Man: LHP Zach Braddock
Middle Reliever: RHP Kameron Loe
Middle Reliever: RHP LaTroy Hawkins
Middle Reliever: ??????
Long Reliever: LHP Manny Parra

If John Axford can post a similar walk rate in 2011, limit his free passes, and lock down the closer's role for the team, the Brewers could have a very deep and effective bullpen this upcoming season. A strong bullpen helps a team win more games than expected because their bullpen can hold leads and also maintain tie games and one-or-two run deficits.

Last year, seven of the top eight bullpens in the MLB made the postseason. Only the Washington Nationals trotted out an elite bullpen and could not translate that into a postseason berth -- though that was likely due to a lack of talent in other areas of the team.

The Brewers' bullpen had a 4.48 ERA last season, which was good for the fifth-worst mark in all of baseball. They were a bit unlucky, however. Their collective BABIP was .328, and their FIP was a much-improved 3.81, which was good for eighth-best in baseball -- much better.

Add a Takashi Saito and a healthy LaTroy Hawkins to the mix, and the Brewers could have a very effective bullpen.

As you can see from the above outline of the current bullpen, however, one middle relief spot is still unaccounted for. Who will fill that role?

Below are the remaining pitchers who are in the hunt for the final relief role, separated by right-handers and left-handers:

RHP Mike McClendon
RHP Sean Green
RHP Brandon Kintzler
RHP Mark Rogers
RHP Justin James
RHP Pat Egan
RHP Mark DiFelice
RHP Tim Dillard
LHP Mitch Stetter

Nine pitchers will come to Spring Training in Maryvale this February with their eyes on the final bullpen spot. That should make for some rather healthy competition, no?

The player that has the obvious advantage on the field is Sean Green, only because he signed a big league deal with the team. The remaining players either have options remaining and can be sent to Triple-A Nashville to preserve depth, or would have no problem being outrighted to Nashville.

The only exception is right-hander Pat Egan, who the Brewers drafted in the Rule 5 Draft earlier this month. He must either remain with the big league roster all season, or the Brewers must return Egan to the Baltimore Orioles. Of course, the two sides could agree to a minor trade that would allow the Brewers to keep Egan in the system as well (like the Brewers and Indians did in 2010 with Chuck Lofgren).

Eight of the above pitchers will leave Spring Training disappointed. One will be with the Milwaukee Brewers on Opening Day. Which pitcher that will become will be determined by their performance in Spring Training, so despite the lack of position battles on the remainder of the team, the bullpen will give us a nine-for-one battle to discuss for a few weeks.

Fascinating.

[Cannonball]

He's BAAAAAAAAAAACK!

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ao7G1ADs5kJcXz1M0Kt2xCkRvLYF?slug=ap-giants-suppan

SAN FRANCISCO (AP)—Pitcher Jeff Suppan(notes) is headed to spring training with the San Francisco Giants with a chance to win a job.

San Francisco has agreed to a minor league contract with the 36-year-old right-hander and invited him to big league camp when pitchers and catchers report next month in Scottsdale, Ariz. Suppan would make $1 million if he is added to the World Series champions’ 40-man roster and would have the chance to earn performance bonuses.

Suppan went 3-8 with a 5.06 ERA in 15 starts and 30 appearances last season — his 16th in the majors—with Milwaukee and St. Louis. He could give San Francisco a capable sixth starter as insurance.

:lol:

In other news, Loe signed for $1.25M, groovy.

[gomer_tree]

In other news, Loe signed for $1.25M, groovy.

My reaction to seeing that news today was that I liked it. But my next reaction was that I needed to see if MyKenk liked it before I knew for sure that I liked it. So, MyKenk, please let me know if I should like this move.

[MyKenk]

My reaction to seeing that news today was that I liked it. But my next reaction was that I needed to see if MyKenk liked it before I knew for sure that I liked it. So, MyKenk, please let me know if I should like this move.

:lol: go right ahead.

[MyKenk]

:roll: here we go again

Lineup
Weeks (2B)
Hart (RF)
Braun (LF)
Fielder (1B)
McGehee (3B)
Betancourt (SS)
Gomez (CF)
Lucroy (C)

Bench
Kottaras (C)
Kotsay (1B, COF)
Counsell (2B, 3B)
Cruz (SS)
Dickerson (OF)

Rotation
Greinke
Gallardo
Marcum
Wolf
Narveson

Bullpen
Loe
Hawkins
Braddock
Green
Parra
Saito
Axford

[MyKenk]

Spring Training opens today!

And Weeks is gonna sign a 4 year deal today!

One of those is great. The other one is good, with a chance of meh.

[OddSox]

Weeks deal seems like a great deal for the Brewers to me. Obviously injury history is a concern, but another 2 years like the one he just had would be more than worth what he signed for.

[T-roy Boy]

Anyone going to the home opener? I think I am (or at least I'd like to)

[MyKenk]

Weeks deal seems like a great deal for the Brewers to me. Obviously injury history is a concern, but another 2 years like the one he just had would be more than worth what he signed for.

Not all that concerned about the injury history. His injuries were both tendon sheath injuries, which, according to the doctors, is extremely rare to have happen twice.

Didn't like the deal at first, but when I looked into it more, it does sound like a good deal. I like the vesting option parameters and the health requirement.

[MyKenk]

http://media.jsonline.com/images/mjs-brewers-spring-trainingb(6).jpg

[MyKenk]

Well, Mat Gamel's hurt again. :yawn:

[yankeetripper]

Well, Mat Gamel's hurt again. :yawn:

Who?

[MyKenk]

:troll:

[yankeetripper]

:troll:

I didn't realize Gamel was ugly as well as injury prone. :shrug:

I thought his prospect star has pretty much washed off. isn't McGhee the 3B and gamel little more than a utility guy / pinch hitter now?

[MyKenk]

I didn't realize Gamel was ugly as well as injury prone. :shrug:

I thought his prospect star has pretty much washed off. isn't McGhee the 3B and gamel little more than a utility guy / pinch hitter now?

Gamel was never gonna be a 3B. He's the RF or 1B next year. Still a top prospect, but that's not saying much in our system. Then again, we don't really need prospects. :shrug:

[MyKenk]

Mark Rogers goes down with a reported shoulder injury, and Jon Lucroy is in for x-rays on his fingers.

edit: Lucroy has a broken pinky on his glove hand.

[Wasp]

Sweet, can we lock the thread now?

[win diesel]

Rename thread title to 78 wins or bust imo

[MyKenk]

Sweet, can we lock the thread now?

Because an AAA pitcher and a catcher are hurt in spring training? Nah.

[MyKenk]

Rename thread title to 78 wins or bust imo

Think u meant to put this in the cardinals thread.

[yankeetripper]

Rename thread title to 78 wins or bust imo

It's a tossup between them and Cincy for who Philly bonces in the first round this year. :shrug:

[MyKenk]

Probly.

[Wasp]

Think u meant to put this in the cardinals thread.

You mean it should be 68 here?

[MyKenk]

You mean it should be 68 here?

Yeah, exactly.

[Wasp]

No need to be rude.

[MyKenk]

Disagree.

[MyKenk]

Corey Hart is a little ridiculous.

http://media.jsonline.com/images/IMG_1561.jpg

[MyKenk]

Fielder's situation with the Brewers is reminiscent of Carl Crawford's final season with the Rays in 2010, when the star player and small-market club knew they'd probably part ways after the season.

These Brewers and those Rays differ, however, in that although Milwaukee is gearing up for a postseason push with one of its best players on the brink of free agency, all of its other core players are either locked up to long-term deals or under team control, whereas Tampa Bay severed ties with a handful of other key contributors like Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit.

[rekrap]

whereas Tampa Bay severed ties with a handful of other key contributors like Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit.

Can't believe you didn't mention Jason Bartlett.

[erosewater]

Milwaukee Brewers: Now with less Zack Greinke

PHOENIX -- Zack Greinke, the offseason acquisition the Milwaukee Brewers hoped would put them over the top in their pursuit of an NL Central title, is expected to begin the season on the 15-day disabled list after suffering a hairline fracture in one of his ribs playing pickup basketball.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2011/news/story?id=6194714

[MyKenk]

missing a start or 2, no biggie. :shrug: :homer:

[Mr F]

missing a start or 2, no biggie. :shrug: :homer:

From articles I've read it sounds like he's out 4-6 weeks. Is he coming right back into the rotation? My only concern would be how much he is going to get to throw over the next month and if his arm will be ready come mid-April. That could lead to arm issues down the line.

[Cannonball]

Best case: he's out for 3 starts, works back into form in minors (?).

Worst case: injury hampers him the whole season.

The way things tend to go with the Brew Crew, the latter wouldn't surprise me.

[MyKenk]

From articles I've read it sounds like he's out 4-6 weeks. Is he coming right back into the rotation? My only concern would be how much he is going to get to throw over the next month and if his arm will be ready come mid-April. That could lead to arm issues down the line.

It's a 4-6 week recovery process, of which he's already in week 2. But yeah, there's some concerns.

[MyKenk]

Early in the year, we can go with a 4 man rotation, which is probably what's gonna end up happening.

[MyKenk]

Update:

Projected Starting Lineup
1 2B Rickie Weeks
2 RF Corey Hart
3 LF Ryan Braun
4 1B Prince Fielder
5 3B Casey McGehee
6 SS Yuniesky Betancourt
7 CF Carlos Gomez
8 C Jonathan Lucroy

Projected Bench
C Wil Nieves
1B/OF Mark Kotsay
IF Craig Counsell
IF Luis Cruz
OF Chris Dickerson

Projected Starting Rotation
1 RHP Yovani Gallardo
2 RHP Shaun Marcum
3 LHP Randy Wolf
4 LHP Chris Narveson
5 RHP Wily Peralta

Projected Bullpen
CL RHP John Axford
SU RHP LaTroy Hawkins
SU RHP Takashi Saito
MID RHP Kameron Loe
MID LHP Zach Braddock
MID RHP Sean Green
LR LHP Manny Parra

[yankeetripper]

Now with more Sergio Mitre!

[MyKenk]

:Ihatethisteam: :panic: :facepalm: :overreacting:

Doug Melvin wanted a pitcher, but got Sergio Mitre. Idiot.

[MyKenk]

I'm bringing back the #firedougmelvin hashtag. Jesus what a terrible terrible move. Yankees just raped the Brewers.

[yankeetripper]

IDK about that Mykenk isn't it a trade of 5th outfielder for 11th man on the pitching staff kind of trade? Seems like one of those that probably won't help either club much. The Yanks get an extra OF if Granderson starts the season on the DL and the Brew Crew gets a warm body to fill the rotation until grinke and marcum are 100%.

[SirVLCIV]

IDK about that Mykenk isn't it a trade of 5th outfielder for 11th man on the pitching staff kind of trade? Seems like one of those that probably won't help either club much. The Yanks get an extra OF if Granderson starts the season on the DL and the Brew Crew gets a warm body to fill the rotation until grinke and marcum are 100%.

That. Both are awful, and neither team gave up anything of consequence.

[MyKenk]

IDK about that Mykenk isn't it a trade of 5th outfielder for 11th man on the pitching staff kind of trade? Seems like one of those that probably won't help either club much. The Yanks get an extra OF if Granderson starts the season on the DL and the Brew Crew gets a warm body to fill the rotation until grinke and marcum are 100%.

Dickerson was our 3rd best OF. He probably wasn't going to win the spot from Gomez out of spring training, but given the fact that Gomez is consistently mediocre, everyone in Brewers nation figured he'd win the job by the end of May barring a ridiculous turnaround from Gomez, which, face it, isn't going to happen.

I'd put Mitre at about the 4th best reliever in the Nashville Sounds bullpen. There's 4 internal startingoptions I'd go with before trading someone who's a vastly underrated player for a warm body to start 2 games before Mark Rogers is ready.

It's a panic move, and if Mitre is on the roster at the end of April, I have a terrible feeling about the rest of this season. The Yankees knew Melvin was in panic mode (unnecessarily), and took advantage of them. Dickerson's a solid player, I'll bet he impresses a lot of Yankee fans.

[yankeetripper]

Dickerson was our 3rd best OF...
If that's true, you guys are gonna suck.

[MyKenk]

If that's true, you guys are gonna suck.

How do you figure? We don't need offense from our CF. He's a great defensive player and around an average bat. Gomez is an amazing defensive player and a below average bat. About the same player if you account for all facets of the game. Plus, honestly, how much have you seen Dickerson actually play? You'll like the guy.

[yankeetripper]

How do you figure? We don't need offense from our CF. He's a great defensive player and around an average bat. Gomez is an amazing defensive player and a below average bat. About the same player if you account for all facets of the game. Plus, honestly, how much have you seen Dickerson actually play? You'll like the guy.

Average bat? He hasn't cracked a 50 OPS+ in the past few years and and is a .750 OPS MiLB player. He's 29, he's not going to suddenly develop offenisve skillz. He's got a decent glove but if he's more than your 4th or 5th outfielder, you've got problems.

[MountainHawk]

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6257373

Sergio Mitre to the BrewCrew.

[yankeetripper]

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6257373

Sergio Mitre to the BrewCrew.

we had no idea

[MountainHawk]

damnit ... ninja by a page. Should have looked back a page.

[MyKenk]

Average bat? He hasn't cracked a 50 OPS+ in the past few years and and is a .750 OPS MiLB player. He's 29, he's not going to suddenly develop offenisve skillz. He's got a decent glove but if he's more than your 4th or 5th outfielder, you've got problems.

Where are you getting those numbers from? He had a rough year last year, mainly because he was injured for most of it. Career OPS+ is 101, which is pretty much the definition of average. Discount last year due to injuries, he's at 116 for his career.

[yankeetripper]

Where are you getting those numbers from? He had a rough year last year, mainly because he was injured for most of it. Career OPS+ is 101, which is pretty much the definition of average. Discount last year due to injuries, he's at 116 for his career.

My bad I was looking at B-R and thought last year was 2 years, not one and 2 teams. Didn't realize he was hurt. Also his rookie year was pretty fluky as he'd never shown anything close to that in the minors and it was pretty small sample.

I guess his minor league line isn't as bad as I frist thought either as his AAA line .282 .382 .471 .853 is better than his overall MiLB line.

I guess he might make a decent 4th outfielder after all. :shrug:

[gomer_tree]

Well, if nothing else, we can brag about having the first back-to-back HRs to open an opening-day game since 1969.

That's got to count for something.

[MountainHawk]

Well, if nothing else, we can brag about having the first back-to-back HRs to open an opening-day game since 1969.

That's got to count for something.
That and 92 wins will get you a playoff berth.

Oh, wait ... NL Central.


That and 86 wins will get you a playoff berth.

[gomer_tree]

I'm not an expert, but I think people may be underestimating the Crew this year. I'm predicting 90 wins and I may even entertain the idea of a playoff series win.

[MountainHawk]

I'm not an expert, but I think people may be underestimating the Crew this year. I'm predicting 90 wins and I may even entertain the idea of a playoff series win.
The 86 is not a commentary on the Crew, but with the rest of your division. I'm not sure Milwaukee gets to 90, but I like their chances to win the division. Getting past the Giants or Phillies pitching staff in the postseason is a tall order though, so unless one of those teams doesn't make it, I don't see a series win.

[gomer_tree]

The 86 is not a commentary on the Crew, but with the rest of your division. I'm not sure Milwaukee gets to 90, but I like their chances to win the division. Getting past the Giants or Phillies pitching staff in the postseason is a tall order though, so unless one of those teams doesn't make it, I don't see a series win.

If the top 3 in the rotation is intact in the Fall, the Brewers rotation is also a tall order, imo. Should be a fun season. Have to enjoy it while we can...

[ldancer911]

:shake:

[gomer_tree]

Well, that sucked.

[SirVLCIV]

Anyone watch that from the Brewers' feed? Did the guy look out on the tag at 3rd?

[gomer_tree]

I just had the radio on. Ueck originally thought he was out, but he is known to get all excited about pop flies off the bat, too.

[T-roy Boy]

I'm not an expert, but I think people may be underestimating the Crew this year. I'm predicting 90 wins and I may even entertain the idea of a playoff series win.

91 is my O/U. Shame on you Gomer. Although I thought they'd win last night. My newest O/U forecast is 90

[MyKenk]

Anyone watch that from the Brewers' feed? Did the guy look out on the tag at 3rd?

Yep. Looked out, and maybe even out of the baseline if the tag was missed. Gotta follow through on that though, can't go for 2, get the lead guy for sure. Wasn't the only blown call of the game, Kotsay's catch was even more obviously blown.

[Cannonball]

That was one crappy opening series. Hey Crew, spring training is over!

[MyKenk]

Home opener! #whoot #narve-dog

[dinosaur]

I'm not an expert, but I think people may be underestimating the Crew this year. I'm predicting 90 wins and I may even entertain the idea of a playoff series win.

Looks more like overestimating to me. 78!

[MyKenk]

#remember2007

[gomer_tree]

Looks more like overestimating to me. 78!

Meh. If I had to guess, if you look back historically at teams that are 3-0 or 0-3 after their first three games, the correlation to success/failure is negligible.

[yankeetripper]

Meh. If I had to guess, if you look back historically at teams that are 3-0 or 0-3 after their first three games, the correlation to success/failure is negligible.


from, the red sox thread
And now a stat that will scare the crap out of the Nation, even more than John Lackey's first start: Of the past 80 playoff teams, only three have started 0-3.

:popcorn:

[MyKenk]

#remember2007
#remember1987

[gomer_tree]

from, the red sox thread


:popcorn:

That's interesting to me, and somewhat surprising. Maybe take home/away into account? I'm looking for some hope here.

[gomer_tree]

#remember1987

That team really messed up the percentage of teams making the playoffs that started a season 13-0.

[MyKenk]

Hope: The Brewers lost 3 games (should have lost 2, but that's :horse:) to the generally accepted favorite in the division, while on the road, in the opening season. The Cubs lost 2/3 at home to the Pirates, and the Cardinals lost 2/3 at home to the Padres.

[gomer_tree]

:tup:

[dlwktb]

Hope: The Brewers lost 3 games (should have lost 2, but that's :horse:) to the generally accepted favorite in the division, while on the road, in the opening season. The Cubs lost 2/3 at home to the Pirates, and the Cardinals lost 2/3 at home to the Padres.

But to complete your comparison... the Reds swept the accepted 2nd best team in the division, albeit at home, to start the season. So, ya know.. not looking good from that stand point.

[dinosaur]

Meh. If I had to guess, if you look back historically at teams that are 3-0 or 0-3 after their first three games, the correlation to success/failure is negligible.

So apparently your assumption is wrong thanks to yt's post. However, I see promise for the Crew if and when Greinke and Marcuum are healthy and pitching again. Until then or until they get the dubbaya's flowing, I'm going to be a pessimistic fan.

[MyKenk]

But to complete your comparison... the Reds swept the accepted 2nd best team in the division, albeit at home, to start the season. So, ya know.. not looking good from that stand point.

They won 2/3, and stole 1 with the aid of the umps. ;)

[gomer_tree]

I'm going to be a pessimistic fan.

Admittedly, this is always the safest place to be as a Brewers fan. It minimizes the disappointment which is almost sure to come.

[Cannonball]

Friggin' Nieves!

:swear:

[Cannonball]

Just put the darn bat on the ball, loser.

[gomer_tree]

The 2011 Brewers are, unfortunately, starting to remind me a lot of the 2010 Brewers so far.

[MyKenk]

Cincinnati and Atlanta are two of the best teams in the NL. Do they need to beat them eventually? Yeah. Nothing wrong with losing 4 to them.

[gomer_tree]

Nothing wrong with losing 4 to them.

Strictly speaking, I would suggest that there is something wrong with this when the context is 4 losses in 4 games.

[MyKenk]

Strictly speaking, I would suggest that there is something wrong with this when the context is 4 losses in 4 games.

Disagree. But whatever.

[gadzookz]

Brewers were only 3-11 against Cincinnati and 2-5 against Atlanta last year. I don't see how there's "nothing wrong" with losing 4 in 4 against these same teams this year.

[MyKenk]

Well, there's something wrong with every loss. But losing 4 random games to 2 of the top 5 teams in the NL isn't something to panic about. Every team has a 4 game losing streak at some point in the year.

[gomer_tree]

I'll generally agree with that. And you don't panic after 4 games. Still doesn't mean it's all rosy. The simple fact is they blew two leads in those 4 games. Signs of the same struggles that kept them from being a real contender last year. Sure, there's 158 games to correct that, but it's not an encouraging way to start the year.

[Cannonball]

Well, we'll see. 4 losses to start the year is a bad sign, especially with the anemic hitting. But you're right, it's early. Sure hope Gomez can find a way to occasionally get on base. He just doesn't look like a major league hitter at present.

[MyKenk]

Same for Betancourt. And Kotsay. And Nieves.

[Cannonball]

True, though it's only Gomez and Betancourt who are supposed to start.

[MyKenk]

For now. Soon it'll be just Betancourt.

[Cannonball]

Yay! Didn't give Axford an opportunity to blow the save.

This team had better learn how to swing the bats and soon.

[MyKenk]

:troll:

[Cannonball]

Gomez pinch-hit (and got out, of course).

I see a lot of bench time in his future.

And troll yourself, Kenky!

[dinosaur]

OMG! The Brewers actually won a game...and against a good team. Good thing Gallardo had his game on yesterday. At least we aren't in the bottom of the division anymore! And three teams still without a win. The Red Sox, Rays, and the Astros. Wow!

[MyKenk]

Gomez pinch-hit (and got out, of course).

I see a lot of bench time in his future.

And troll yourself, Kenky!

:lol: Will do. (Also, he pinch ran. :shrug:)

[yankeetripper]

from espn

Yovani Gallardo: How dare you pitch a complete game! You make me cover my eyes in shame, showing up your teammates like that. Since when do starting pitchers go nine innings? You even scored the Brewers’ only run? Don’t you know this is a team game? Quit being so selfish.

:lol:

[gomer_tree]

Three in a row going into Cubs' weekend! Thank goodness. Axford scared me a couple nights ago when his 3-2 curveball hit about 20 feet in front of home plate, but he seems to be settling back in.

[Cannonball]

Great series, minus the Wolf shellacking. Exciting game yesterday, was glad to see McGehee stick it to the team that dumped him.

GO BREW CREW!!!

:party:

[MyKenk]

Great series, minus the Wolf shellacking God awful defense. Exciting game yesterday, was glad to see McGehee stick it to the team that dumped him.

GO BREW CREW!!!

:party:

:ifyp:

[Cannonball]

OK, so Axford blows another save last night, which fortunately did not result in a loss. He had trouble, IIRC, in one of the games against Pittsburgh (but did get the save). And we all remember game 1. Early season jitters or 1 year wonder coming home to roost? The former I hope. May not matter if the team can't swing the bats better anyway.

[Cannonball]

May not matter if the team can't swing the bats better anyway.

Also, if they can't start fielding either. Basically, they suck.

[MyKenk]

Yep, they're terrible. Playing 500 ball with a still unstable bullpen, missing their ace, and having only 3 people contributing offensively.

This team has one good defender on it, and people don't want him playing. :shrug:

[yankeetripper]

OK, so Axford blows another save last night, which fortunately did not result in a loss.
:swear: say us MArcum fantasy owners.

I do have a question about manager startegy in the game - why did Marcum bat for himself to sac bunt if Green was going to relieve him anyway? Why not just pinch hit and play for the big inning?

[MyKenk]

:swear: say us MArcum fantasy owners.

I do have a question about manager startegy in the game - why did Marcum bat for himself to sac bunt if Green was going to relieve him anyway? Why not just pinch hit and play for the big inning?

:lol: Have you seen our bench?

[yankeetripper]

:lol: Have you seen our bench?

no I hadn't really looked - but your point is taken

[gomer_tree]

Yep, they're terrible. Playing 500 ball with a still unstable bullpen, missing their ace, and having only 3 people contributing offensively.

This team has one good defender on it, and people don't want him playing. :shrug:

I'm generally happy with the pitching, except for Axford.

And the fielding mishaps sprung up just in the last couple series'. Until then, they were among the lowest in the league in errors.

They'll be OK. Get the ace back, Hart gets back, settle down defensively, surgically implant a robotic arm on Axford...

[MyKenk]

I'm generally happy with the pitching, except for Axford.

And the fielding mishaps sprung up just in the last couple series'. Until then, they were among the lowest in the league in errors.

They'll be OK. Get the ace back, Hart gets back, settle down defensively, surgically implant a robotic arm on Axford...

Errors don't matter. They're awful defensively, but Roenicke's shifts are making them look a little better than they actually are. Axfords problems are fixable, just need the rest of the bullpen to settle into roles, will be fine when Hawkins and Saito are back, and the the rotation is solidified to not require so many bullpen innings.

[yankeetripper]

Errors don't matter.
Well they do, but they are less important when you have great range.

They're awful defensively,

:iatp:

They are really sub par defensively at nearly every position except CF when Gomez plays.

[MyKenk]

Well they do, but they are less important when you have great range.



:iatp:

They are really sub par defensively at nearly every position except CF when Gomez plays.

Right, I meant errors as a measure of defense don't matter.

Although, this is weird.


Tm #Fld R/G DefEff G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rtot/yr Rdrs Rdrs/yr
CLE 26 3.31 .741 16 144 122 1320.0 604 440 155 9 14 .985 23 21 -2 -2
TEX 26 3.06 .743 16 144 123 1260.0 582 420 154 8 18 .986 12 12 8 8
LAA 29 3.44 .745 16 144 122 1374.0 628 458 161 9 12 .986 10 9 -7 -6
MIL 26 4.00 .711 16 144 116 1287.0 602 429 166 7 16 .988 10 10 3 3
TBR 26 3.94 .716 16 144 100 1278.0 592 426 158 8 9 .986 10 9 0 0
BOS 26 5.47 .718 15 135 107 1161.0 554 387 161 6 15 .989 6 6 3 1
FLA 25 4.29 .714 14 126 95 1143.0 541 381 150 10 9 .982 6 6 -3 -3
WSN 25 4.07 .701 15 135 97 1248.0 571 416 144 11 10 .981 6 5 -4 -4
PIT 28 4.50 .712 16 144 114 1314.0 641 438 188 15 14 .977 4 4 -5 -1
MIN 28 4.50 .718 16 144 111 1269.0 594 423 162 9 15 .985 3 2 -6 -1
SDP 27 3.44 .711 16 144 107 1329.0 644 443 191 10 18 .984 3 3 1 1
KCR 26 4.38 .680 16 144 118 1380.0 673 460 200 13 13 .981 2 2 5 1
OAK 25 3.44 .706 16 144 113 1311.0 632 437 177 18 13 .972 1 1 -5 -1
TOR 29 4.44 .681 16 144 119 1299.0 615 433 167 15 21 .976 1 1 4 4
ARI 27 6.07 .656 14 126 107 1152.0 518 384 125 9 14 .983 0 0 -16 -17
BAL 26 4.67 .710 15 135 108 1185.0 559 395 156 8 16 .986 0 0 3 1
NYY 25 4.86 .686 14 126 104 1134.0 504 378 117 9 13 .982 -0 -0 -8 -1
LgAvg 27 4.35 .696 16 142 112 1280 601 427 164 10 14 .983 0 0
ATL 26 3.24 .692 17 153 127 1332.0 641 444 189 8 21 .988 -2 -2 -3 -0
COL 28 4.19 .714 16 144 111 1356.0 655 452 194 9 22 .986 -2 -2 1 0
SFG 28 3.56 .699 16 144 95 1308.0 620 436 172 12 10 .981 -3 -3 2 0
STL 27 4.06 .691 16 144 107 1317.0 629 439 180 10 14 .984 -3 -3 -4 -1
CHC 27 4.94 .650 16 144 107 1260.0 590 420 158 12 7 .980 -6 -6 -4 -4
DET 27 4.71 .696 17 153 117 1332.0 611 444 157 10 12 .984 -6 -5 -6 -5
PHI 25 3.60 .685 15 135 115 1224.0 565 408 150 7 15 .988 -6 -6 -14 -2
CHW 25 5.06 .669 16 144 118 1353.0 640 451 174 15 16 .977 -7 -6 1 1
LAD 31 4.71 .681 17 153 111 1350.0 619 450 160 9 13 .985 -9 -8 -10 -1
CIN 26 4.69 .680 16 144 101 1293.0 597 431 158 8 14 .987 -10 -9 -3 -0
HOU 26 5.38 .648 16 144 116 1254.0 598 418 163 17 13 .972 -12 -12 -13 -2
NYM 29 5.50 .664 16 144 114 1278.0 598 426 164 8 12 .987 -12 -11 -20 -3
SEA 25 5.41 .668 17 153 133 1305.0 623 435 174 14 15 .978 -15 -14 -3 -0
800 4.35 .696 474 4266 3355 38406.0 18040 12802 4925 313 424 .983 4 0


4th in total runs saved above average. Was not expecting to see that. Obviously way too small of a sample, but, still, surprised.

[yankeetripper]

4th in total runs saved above average. Was not expecting to see that. Obviously way too small of a sample, but, still, surprised.
Fangraphs UZR has: Fielder, Weeks, betencourt, Braun all negative with Weeks and Braun as horrible.

They have McGehee (excellent) and Gomez (awesome)

Not sure who is ranked as RF I think Hart doesn't have enough innings due to DL time.

In the end when the sample is large enough I'd expect McGehee to get back to average with Weeks, Braun and Betencourt among the league trailers and Gomez one of the best if his bat keeps him the lineup enough.

[MyKenk]

McClendon coming to join the team today, Marcum to the bereavement list.