PEBLE - Emergence tends to be on a calendar year basis

[Phil de cube]

Can someone explain what that means?

Thanks.

[tommie frazier]

the discovery of the "event" (like asbestos or contruction defects) occur in the same calendar year, but trigger all the various policy years.

[Phil de cube]

the discovery of the "event" (like asbestos or contruction defects) occur in the same calendar year, but trigger all the various policy years.

Ahh okay. I don't like that wording but I guess I'll have to agree with it. I'll just forget about hurricanes and earthquakes.

[cgott42]

To add to the explanation:
Generally think of each AY as a loss which occurred during the 1st 12 months of that year (i.e. the AY).
then that loss amount develops over time as a function of age since the loss occurred (aka the AY). This is the normal reporting pattern of losses- derived from triangles. So that you can estimate the % of the loss reported based on how long it's been since the date of loss occurrence (AY age).

With events that she mentions (e.g. Breast Implants, TV expose on side effect of pharmaceuticals, LUST law passed requiring detectors) the % reported is NOT a function of age since date of occurrence, but instead a function of age since the CALENDAR DATE (CY) of the initiating event (e.g. the date of the TV expose alerting everyone to the problem) - i.e. immediately after the TV expose - there will be tons reported, and that number will go down the farther you get from the CY of the intiating event.
i.e. it's a CY phenomenon, not an AY phenomenon - so an AY triangle is useless.

[2M]

in other words, no correlation between accident date and report date