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campbell
11-24-2008, 08:08 AM
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/20/business/rriskin.php

No comments from me right now. Just some excerpts:

Call in the philosophers, call the psychologists. The idea of risk, the most fundamental concept in the insurance industry, is undergoing its most rigorous analysis in decades.

As the financial crisis sweeps Wall Street and Europe, big insurers are scrambling to unearth flaws in their core assumptions about the chances for financial outcomes - and to devise new ways to cope with uncertainty and "slippery slopes," both for themselves and the companies that buy their products.

"With this crisis, everybody is re-evaluating the concept of risk management," said Richard Phillips, a professor of risk management and insurance at Georgia State University, which has a leading program for insurance studies.

....
Because nearly all risk-management models failed to predict or protect against the crisis, Fox said, insurers will increasingly view risk "more as a function of behavior than of models."

Going forward, she said, insurers will use models "as a point of information, but it won't drive risk tolerance" or the appetite for making financial and other bets.
....


"They weren't thinking about how the degree of risk in the system might be changing. They weren't thinking beyond their own models. Risk management is about making choices, not preventing losses. I don't think chief risk officers were asking that question."

Fuzzy
11-24-2008, 08:28 AM
I like this quote best:
"Our definition of risk became confused with obeying the law," said Bill Sharon, chief executive of Sorms, a risk-management consulting firm. "We created an environment where we didn't know what we were doing, but it was legal and making profits."This could apply to lots of things...:popcorn:

tenthring
12-01-2008, 02:38 PM
For most financial companies risk management is about managing the risk thier employees represent to the firm. There is an adverserial relationship between many short term bonus based employees and long term investment based shareholders. A good risk manager should focus primarily on that mismatch, and find some system to allow the interests of the employee and the shareholder to be more in line.

Also, a good risk manager should hire someone to make sure he doesn't stand to gain from gaming the system :P

campbell
12-01-2008, 05:58 PM
Well, there's always the gaming the system issue. I helped my sister recently with a management bonus function for her company that was a majorly discontinuous function. I told her that it was an incentive to goose the results fraudulently due to the cliff nature of the bonus.... but she's just a lowly accountant, and not anywhere in the decision chain. Evidently the board doesn't mind this incentive to fraud.

That said, it doesn't require outright fraud to mis-value/mis-measure risks. People can just be wrong (it does happen), or they can have a blindness because they make some blanket assumptions.... or they can have the hubris that they're really really smart and know what they're doing and how dare you question their complicated model. It's been extensively researched!