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JDB
05-09-2009, 09:41 PM
I'm so glad this thread is back, where's Gagan?

success_will_write
05-09-2009, 09:46 PM
What is the occurence of an event that has negative probability in this realm?

Maybe it could be resolved in the same way they work with probability amplitudes in quantum mechanics. I read a book by Roger Penrose and he explained how you can use complex numbers (of the form z=x+iy) to derive "probability amplitudes" for the states of particles which as far as I could tell was a different way to infer probability as opposed to a traditional notion of probability. I'm just a guy regurgitating what I've read in recreational science books. There are probably smart people out there who could actually answer that question.

More importantly, pass or preliminary pass? :wave:

apk123
05-10-2009, 12:03 AM
Maybe it's just me, but it seems to me unprofessional for an actuary in a hiring position not to know about developments in the exam system, given that this is one of the important criteria when it comes to the hiring decision. I mean just because an actuary is old, does it mean he gets a free pass to continue using logarithm tables and punching cards without hearing about strange inventions like excel?

yellowcake
05-10-2009, 12:46 AM
Maybe it's just me, but it seems to me unprofessional for an actuary in a hiring position not to know about developments in the exam system, given that this is one of the important criteria when it comes to the hiring decision. I mean just because an actuary is old, does it mean he gets a free pass to continue using logarithm tables and punching cards without hearing about strange inventions like excel?

C'mon cut them some slack :). Do you keep up with how classes are tought in elementary school? Some actuaries in a hiring position also have many other things to worry about.

ElDucky
05-10-2009, 03:03 AM
Why does the boss have to keep up if he can just ask someone else?

And my beef was with the term non negative probability. What is a negative probability?

The odds that this will get more interesting is 1, at least.

success_will_write
05-10-2009, 12:01 PM
Why does the boss have to keep up if he can just ask someone else?

And my beef was with the term non negative probability. What is a negative probability?

The odds that this will get more interesting is 1, at least.

:link: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_probability)

Not the most reliable of sources but it does reference papers by Dirac and Feynmen and it seems that those guys took the idea of negative probability seriously. The last paragraph discusses negative probabilities within mathematical finance.

nonactuarialactuary
05-10-2009, 12:17 PM
Any event that has a non-negative probability of occurring can still happen. That's all I meant. For example, in a truly infinite universe, some event with probability zero still occurs an infinite number of times. Tho that point was probably destroyed by my including the (non-negative and non-zero) probability of 1/26,000.

Zero multiplied by infinity is not zero. It is also not infinity. From my calculus 1 days, I seem to remember that expression as an indeterminate form:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indeterminate_form

success_will_write
05-10-2009, 12:32 PM
Zero multiplied by infinity is not zero. It is also not infinity. From my calculus 1 days, I seem to remember that expression as an indeterminate form:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indeterminate_form

I don't think that's the same thing as saying that an event with probability zero will happen an infinite number of times. As stated above, I'm merely repeating what I've read in a recreational science book. The author (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D_Barrow) did say that an event with probability zero happens an infinite number of time in an infinite universe. He did not say that 0*infinity=infinity. It is my speculation that his reasoning is a bit beyond freshman calculus.

Griffin 1
05-10-2009, 02:05 PM
Zero multiplied by infinity is not zero. It is also not infinity. From my calculus 1 days, I seem to remember that expression as an indeterminate form:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indeterminate_formAsk Brutè about that. He likes l'Hopital's rule, from what I recall.

Griffin 1
05-10-2009, 02:09 PM
Now, that said, if you have read this book (http://www.amazon.com/Infinite-Book-Boundless-Timeless-Endless/dp/0375422277) and you respect the opinion of this guy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Barrow) then you will agree that an event with probability zero still occurs an infinite number of times in an infinite universe.You probably want to be careful about listing any exams as a pass on your resume, whether they are preliminary passes or the real kind. After all, there is a zero probability that the official released results will be rescinded. If I were you, I wouldn't list any exams, nor would I list any degrees, since those will all probably get revoked as well.

success_will_write
05-10-2009, 04:03 PM
You probably want to be careful about listing any exams as a pass on your resume, whether they are preliminary passes or the real kind. After all, there is a zero probability that the official released results will be rescinded. If I were you, I wouldn't list any exams, nor would I list any degrees, since those will all probably get revoked as well.

You make good points but you are a robot according to your avatar. I learned my lesson the last time a smooth talking robot tried to set me up... and that lesson is... don't trust robots. :shutters:

Griffin 1
05-10-2009, 04:16 PM
You make good points but you are a robot according to your avatar. That's not a robot.

success_will_write
05-10-2009, 04:30 PM
That's not a robot.

typical robot... trying to deflect attention :tfh:

Griffin 8
05-10-2009, 04:34 PM
typical robot... trying to deflect attention smiley thing wearing a rain bonnetIt's a potato. Dressed as a robot.

Brad Gile
05-10-2009, 06:58 PM
It's a potato. Dressed as a robot.

Indeed. A potato-head, to be more precise. Definitely not a robot. :tup:

JMO
05-11-2009, 08:19 AM
It's a bit naive to think credentialed actuaries all keep up with the early exams. Do you realize how often the systems change?
I've heard it said that there is a major restructuring every five years, whether it's needed or not.

I'm sure someone at the employer will know what it means, but if you interview with any older "senior" actuaries, they'll probably ask about it. It doesn't seem like a big deal.
:heynow:
IFYQ

Seriously, there must be someone responsible for the student program who should know. If the others don't know (or want an opening question, just to see how you react) they can ask about it.