Prediction, DOW up at least 500 tomorrow

[Anonymous]

That'll show them what we're really made of.

[Anonymous]

I believe that their choice of targets already indicates they believe that we worship money above all else.

[Anonymous]

We don't worship money. You'll see. Tomorrow Patriotic will prop up the economy with their money. It might not be "financially sound investing," but it's d*mn patriotic!

!

[Anonymous]

Here comes the rally.

[Anonymous]

...and there it goes.

Do the patriotic thing, increase your 401k deferral.

[The Mister]

<font size=2>I don't want to post the entire memo (5 pages long in small type), but Goldman Sachs released a letter essentially saying not to worry about the markets. They provided a large table showing 25 of the most notable events starting with the fall of France in May/June 1940 and ending with the Russian LTCM crisis (and of course including Pearl Harbor and other such things).

Using those 25 data points, the mean percentage loss in the DJIA during the reaction dates for each event is ~8.1%. 22 days following those dates the Dow had had an average gain of 4.5%. 63 days later, 6.9%, and 126 days later, 12.9%. Median numbers are similar.

They also give some numbers regarding various international markets, currencies, and bond rates.

The summary reads as follows:
To summarize, we believe some of the negative impact of this event will be offset by more accommodative monetary and fiscal policy, but the uncertainties of the duration and magnitude of the conflict make the situation volatile and unpredictable in the near term. At this time of great tragedy and uncertainty, we advise maintaining a consistent, disciplined portfolio approach.

Thoughts?

[Anonymous]

True. I sold a ton today at the start, and will buy back when it hits bottom.

That's what everyone should do. Sell now, buy back cheap later.

[The Mister]

<font size=2>Yeah, but you're having to sell them back at the lower prices, right? You've already lost.

(Unless I'm just misunderstanding the whole process...)

[Anonymous]

Shadow says

The time to sell was last Friday. But a buying opportunity seems to be on its way.

[Anonymous]

On 2001-09-17 12:00, The Mister wrote:
<font size=2>Yeah, but you're having to sell them back at the lower prices, right? You've already lost.

(Unless I'm just misunderstanding the whole process...)


Yeah, but less than I would have lost had I held the stocks during the decline.

[Anonymous]

When I looked about an hour ago, it was down 500.

My guess is a slight rebound at the close, then another 300 to 500 tomorrow. The rally will come on the third day - the pro's are counting on the suckers to look for a rally tomorrow.

Meanwhile, I guess the program trading stoppers have kicked in?