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View Full Version : Figuring the odds at Texas No Limit hold'em

Happy Extinction
10-27-2003, 10:01 PM
I tried to come up with a couple of quick rules to help me figure when to stay in in NL hold'em. I pretty much made this up.

This is for after the flop.

First of all, I tried to figure out the chances of getting one of my outs after the flop. I came up with

6 outs = around 25%
8 outs = around 33%
14 outs = around 50%

So for example, if I have A K and the flop comes out 2 6 9 (let's say suits aren't a factor in this hand) I might say i have a decent chance of winning if I pair up at least one of my hole cards. That means I have six outs and around a 25% of winning the hand.

I calculated this as (1-(41/47)*(40/46) = 24.1%

Is this close to being correct?

Okay, if this is correct. Then how do I bet. Lets say there is 200 in the pot right now and somebody leads with a bet of 50.

My first instinct is to say a bet of 50 is close to an even bet. but that can't be right since if I don't get one of my outs on the 4th card, i will have to bet more money.

So I might assume that i will have to bet twice which means, and I would be guessing, that my total outlay to see two cards would be 100. But I would also assume that the pot would be bigger. Say three people are in, besides me, i might assume and ending pot of 200 + 200 + 100 (assuming 2 people fold at the end) so my math after the flop becomes:

(500 ending pot) * (25% chance of winning) / 2 bets = around 60

60 is my indifference bet, so I will bet the bet of 50.

I notice that the more people staying in, my indifference bet goes up. I realize that the more people in the more chance for good hands that beat me.

The whole decision tree changes after the 4th card.

Happy Extinction
10-29-2003, 09:49 AM
:bump:

carrot
10-29-2003, 10:09 AM
:bump:
:sleep2: :-? Wha? Huh? Oh, me? Um, 1/13? :oops: :duh:

vegas
10-29-2003, 10:13 AM
You logic is not quite correct. Given the flop cards, your A-K may be a winner w/o pariring up. So, your chances of winning are higher than you calculated.

As for how to bet, if you rely on probability, you will eventually be outsmarted by a poker player. How you bet will depend on your hand and how the betting has already gone. In this scenario, let's say that only you and one other stay in for the flop. The other player was either betting before for flop or not. Let's suppose he was betting before the flop. Then he is likely either holding a pair, of has a good hand to draw into (flush, straight, face cards). After the flop, he likely did not improve his hand. If he comes out strong again, then he might be saying that his pair is higher than the flop cards, so he thinks he is the favorite. If he backs off, he might be saying that he did not get the cards needed to help complete a flush or straight. However, he could just double his initial bet on nothing and try to bluff you outta there.

So, probability is not the only factor to consider. You really have to study how the other players bet and try to figure out their gives.

Tim><
10-29-2003, 12:00 PM
Just to expand on the previous point, you are not looking at the larger point; by only factoring in your survival chance, you are not calculating in expected returns. You need to figure out pot odds (the expected return of your bet based on the current pot) and implied pot odds (the expected return on your bet based on where you expect the pot ot end up). This is even more confusing as the implied pot odds change with the flop, the turn and the river. I would stay away from the NL Hold 'em until you had a lot of experience with regular hold 'em.

11pecans
10-29-2003, 12:13 PM
How does the guy who bet 50 play?

does he have a pair of aces, a pair of kings, a pair of 9s or 7-4 offsuit.

what is your ultimate outlay and the final pot and outcome?

if E(x)>0 then proceed.

Happy Extinction
10-29-2003, 01:46 PM
This should have read Hold'em (without the "no limit"). My example above definitely only applies to my low limit online games where there is much less chance to win by betting and to read other players. I play for \$.5/\$1.0 and this for me is basically a pure probability game. And I do fairly well with my little rules from above.

Granted, this is not really a money making venture even when I hit hot streaks. I mean, it's too hard to read a guy when he bets \$1 on the river - this is the only bet possible. Granted you may be able to catch a trend (he ALWAYS bets when he is on the button on the river and so I start raising) but not so much.

I agree, even with online gambling, a NL tournament table (I play \$5 + \$1) involves very little pure probability. Some at the beginning with 10 people, and almost none when you are one of 3 left.

You need to figure out pot odds (the expected return of your bet based on the current pot) and implied pot odds (the expected return on your bet based on where you expect the pot ot end up).

I think this is what i am doing. I decide as best I can what my indifference point is based on the information available. If the required bet is way below that I am in (or would raise to get more money in the pot.) Where I expect the pot to end up changes after each round of betting - the decision tree changes.

Perhaps I am not understanding.

But, I agree with your points that this is only half the game. that's why I love playing in person.