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limabeanactuary
05-06-2010, 10:27 AM
from an Academy task force:
http://www.actuary.org/pdf/finreport/role_of_the_systemic_risk_regulator.pdf

I'm going to pull out the promote-the-actuarial-profession bit:

The Actuary within the Federal Systemic Risk Regulatory Structure
Few single insurance companies are individually large enough to cause risk of systemic proportions. But if a similar course of action is pursued by several companies of sufficient system-wide risk concentration, systemic problems could develop. Therefore the staff of the SRR should include individuals with the expertise to review the reports and risk profiles of many different insurers to determine what combinations may pose real risk. This requires an ability to understand and then aggregate the work performed by company actuaries and to be qualified to do this work within that area of expertise (actuaries specialize in particular types of insurance: life, health, pension, or property/casualty).
Actuaries also may need to perform an analysis of potential insurance risks before those risks emerge. Below are three examples of risks that could require more complex analysis:
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Determining whether the consolidation of insurance administration in the hands of too few outsourcers could lead to systemic risk;
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Determining whether particular asset classes, albeit held at only small levels in any particular insurer, pose an unacceptable risk when aggregated at the national level;
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Determining whether the insurance industry’s use of only a small number of reinsurers is trending toward the creation of systemic exposure.
This network of actuaries, creating a link between the federal regulator and the functional regulators as well as a network across the federal jurisdiction, will be able, in parallel with the NAIC, to support the federal SRR to ensure that the insurance industry continues to be appropriately regulated and avoids the systemic risk pitfalls that have befallen many other financial services companies and sectors of late.

limabeanactuary
05-06-2010, 10:29 AM
Anybody have some good examples to add to Appendix I?

I am, of course, currently self-interested in the first example given:

Example 1 – Consolidation of Reinsurance Industry
Reinsurance is one of the ways that insurers mitigate their risks and thus expand the capability of insurance companies to meet the insurance needs of the public. Reinsurance provides the ceding company:
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Increased capacity to provide insurance to individuals and businesses,
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Claims stability so that insurance companies can plan for long-term growth and development, and
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Catastrophe protection.
If the reinsurance industry were to consolidate in a way that all the ceded business is with just a few reinsurers, the failure of one of them could restrict the availability of insurance protection to a range of constituencies.
One risk metric that the regulator might identify as appropriate to examine is the percentage of reinsured business held by one reinsurer. Adverse trends can be recognized over time if an increasing amount of reinsurance is being ceded to a decreasing number of reinsurers. Risks also may be identified if the financial strength of the reinsurance industry declines as measured by metrics related to statutory required capital or internal reinsurer risk-management processes.

Car'a'carn
05-06-2010, 11:14 AM
Imo there must be less reinsurers than insurers, otherwise it would be risk redistribution instead of pooling, but how big is too big?


One think that needs to be done is: no reinsurance to affiliates, this does not change company's risk, only helps to reduce reserves.

awriter
05-06-2010, 06:49 PM
In looking at the data sources in the white paper, I don't believe the SRR would have enough information to do a very effective job of identifying systemic risks. More detail is needed, such as details of reinsurance agreements, in order to identify what is really going on.

campbell
05-06-2010, 10:07 PM
In systemic risk, principle 1: Remember the limitations of humans.

Be they ever so clever, reality will win out.

cf Summers betting the milk money:
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=177543