Let's Talk Fantasy Football 2010!

[MooBeay]

Happy now?

no, this is a fantasy discussion. i need answers.

[Not Mike]

Happy now?

LOL, very.... because you said this:

What planet do you guys live on where vincent jackson is a top 10 WR? I'm with dlwktb, you guys play so much fantasy you've blurred the line and no longer know what's real.

Well I'll get you up to speed. In the real world, a one year wonder is not a top 10 WR ever. Especially one that gets suspended and then chooses to bail on his team.

7)Miles Austin
9)DeSean Jackson
13)Sidney Rice (to be fair, I guess he's not in your top 10, lol)

I take VJax over Ocho in the real NFL without question at this stage. I personally like VJax over Colston because he can stretch the field, but it's certainly debateable. I haven't seen enough of Roddy White in live action to really know, so couldn't argue against it.

[Force of Interest]

no, this is a fantasy discussion. i need answers.


I thought this bled over into a reality discussion. Fantasy wise we already know Jackson goes way below his talent level because of games out of the lineup.

[Force of Interest]

LOL, very.... because you said this:



7)Miles Austin
9)DeSean Jackson
13)Sidney Rice (to be fair, I guess he's not in your top 10, lol)

I take VJax over Ocho in the real NFL without question at this stage. I personally like VJax over Colston because he can stretch the field, but it's certainly debateable. I haven't seen enough of Roddy White in live action to really know, so couldn't argue against it.

Miles is a special player. Jackson has been good since he stepped into the league, not really one year. Rice still falls within my guidelines.

But yea you caught me.

[rawl316]

LOL, very.... because you said this:



7)Miles Austin
9)DeSean Jackson
13)Sidney Rice (to be fair, I guess he's not in your top 10, lol)

I take VJax over Ocho in the real NFL without question at this stage. I personally like VJax over Colston because he can stretch the field, but it's certainly debateable. I haven't seen enough of Roddy White in live action to really know, so couldn't argue against it.

I would take roddy over jax. I would take jax over steve smith and Ocho.

[Force of Interest]

Steve Smith is a god. Give VJax an over the hill Delhomme and then a nobody young qb and see what he does.

[dlwktb]

Which Steve Smith?

;)

[rawl316]

Steve Smith is a god. Give VJax an over the hill Delhomme and then a nobody young qb and see what he does.

Yeah, if god punches out teammates

[Not Mike]

Miles is a special player. Jackson has been good since he stepped into the league, not really one year. Rice still falls within my guidelines.

But yea you caught me.

I like Miles Austin... I have no reason to think that he won't have another great year. VJax was arguably better than DJax in 2008, so either they are both one-year wonders or neither of them are.

Bottom line, I actually agree with you that in general people get too caught up in stats when evaluating players; in this case, I just strongly disagree with you on the ability of VJax.

[BallaActuary]

Yeah, if god punches out teammates

That aside, Steve Smith the Panther does incredible things with his hands and after he catches the pass especially for his size (relative to other top 10 WRs). It is a shame he had a QB with a floppy arm throwing him ducks. I think Moore is an upgrade and he should bounce back this year.

[Big Pete]

I'm pretty sure I've seen Ryan Mathews pre-ranked in the top 10 according the yahoo system. Why would someone give so much love to the rookie? Isn't he on a team likely to pass the ball a ton (regardless of VJax's issues), with an o-line and fullback situation that's gone downhill lately, and a decent veteran RB in Sproles?

[Force of Interest]

I'm pretty sure I've seen Ryan Mathews pre-ranked in the top 10 according the yahoo system. Why would someone give so much love to the rookie? Isn't he on a team likely to pass the ball a ton (regardless of VJax's issues), with an o-line and fullback situation that's gone downhill lately, and a decent veteran RB in Sproles?
I'll assume you're saying top 10 in rbs. Norv Turner rbs often are good bets for fantasy. As much as SD likes Sproles they don't view him as a 20-25 carry back (he can do it if they need him to though). Top 10 is too high but I like his value a lot this year.

I don't really think SD is pass happy. They were pretty committed to to running LT last year and he was awful.

[Force of Interest]

I like Miles Austin... I have no reason to think that he won't have another great year. VJax was arguably better than DJax in 2008, so either they are both one-year wonders or neither of them are.

Bottom line, I actually agree with you that in general people get too caught up in stats when evaluating players; in this case, I just strongly disagree with you on the ability of VJax.

I think DeSean gives DC's more headaches than VJax. Also DeSean has been great from the get-go, Vincent Jackson I would say got good starting in the playoffs 3 years ago, which I think was his 3rd year.

[MooBeay]

I think DeSean gives DC's more headaches than VJax. Also DeSean has been great from the get-go, Vincent Jackson I would say got good starting in the playoffs 3 years ago, which I think was his 3rd year.

i wouldn't say 60 for 900+ with 2 TDs was GREAT...randy moss was great from the get go.

i don't think desean finds the endzone the same this year. maclin will develop into the number one by week 3.

[Big Pete]

I'll assume you're saying top 10 in rbs. Norv Turner rbs often are good bets for fantasy. As much as SD likes Sproles they don't view him as a 20-25 carry back (he can do it if they need him to though). Top 10 is too high but I like his value a lot this year.

I don't really think SD is pass happy. They were pretty committed to to running LT last year and he was awful.

Nope, I meant top-10 overall. Here's the current yahoo top-12
C Johnson, ADP, MJD, Rice, Turner, Gore, A Johnson, Mendenhall, Mathews, DeAngelo, S Jackson, R Moss.

What's so great about this rookie? I can't remember any rookie in the last decade or so being hyped enough to get him into the first round of a fantasy draft - maybe Edge James or Rickey were?

[Not Mike]

What's so great about this rookie? I can't remember any rookie in the last decade or so being hyped enough to get him into the first round of a fantasy draft - maybe Edge James or Rickey were?

Edge is the last guy I remember like this.

Mathews is coming in as the unquestioned starter to a team that has had great success at fantasy RB. Even as a semi-turd last year, LT put up decent fantasy numbers and lots of scores.

I think most people think that the floor for Mathews is what LT did last year and the ceiling is huge.

[Force of Interest]

maclin will develop into the number one by week 3.

:lol:

I'll give you lots and lots of credit if this happens.

[Get Busy Livin']

I could see it. Maclin's a little faster and, based on their college careers, a bit more explosive. That plus the attention D's will give to Jackson vs. Maclin, and yeah, I could definitely see that happening.

[rawl316]

Jackson is very hit or miss. He is too small and can get injured going over the middle. If there are no big plays, he's not going to put up a 100 yard day.

[Force of Interest]

I could see it. Maclin's a little faster and, based on their college careers, a bit more explosive. That plus the attention D's will give to Jackson vs. Maclin, and yeah, I could definitely see that happening.
I think its pretty clear from how effortlessly DeSean glides past every deep coverage that he is faster. The sheer number of big plays he had both receiving and punt returning shows hes more explosive too. In fact, he's the most explosive player in the league this side of Chris Johnson.

[Force of Interest]

Jackson is very hit or miss. He is too small and can get injured going over the middle. If there are no big plays, he's not going to put up a 100 yard day.
If he gets hurt that doesn't count as Maclin "developing into the no. 1." And he was a lot more hit than miss.

[Get Busy Livin']

I think its pretty clear from how effortlessly DeSean glides past every deep coverage that he is faster. The sheer number of big plays he had both receiving and punt returning shows hes more explosive too. In fact, he's the most explosive player in the league this side of Chris Johnson.
I just meant pure speed, based on 40 times, and (again) their college careers. If you lined him and Maclin up and had them run down the field, Maclin would win.

The ability to beat coverage is a different story. DeSean's obviously shown a great ability to do that, but I'll need to see more before I can say he's the best WR going forward. I think a lot of people forget how situation-dependent WR is. Like Laurent Robinson on the Rams for example -- he'd be an absolute stud if he played for a real team.

[Force of Interest]

I just meant pure speed, based on 40 times, and (again) their college careers. If you lined him and Maclin up and had them run down the field, Maclin would win.

The ability to beat coverage is a different story. DeSean's obviously shown a great ability to do that, but I'll need to see more before I can say he's the best WR going forward. I think a lot of people forget how situation-dependent WR is. Like Laurent Robinson on the Rams for example -- he'd be an absolute stud if he played for a real team.

Right, DeSean plays much faster than his 40 time.

And I agree on teh situation thing too, Jackson had no choice but to be no. 1 starting week 1 of his rookie year. Maclin came in late cuz of contract stuff and it took him a few weeks to make an impact.

I like both of them but I think Maclin will follow the mold and breakout in his 3rd year like most young WRs. Speaking of which this is DeSean's 3rd year.

[Get Busy Livin']

No real commentary from myself here, I'm just reprinting some ESPN commentary.

Christopher Harris, espn.com

WR Bust: DeSean Jackson, Eagles. Jackson finished 41st in red zone targets last year. He must keep producing long touchdowns to justify where he'll be selected in fantasy drafts, and with Donovan McNabb gone and Kevin Kolb starting, I question how often that will happen. I have him outside my top 10 among wideouts despite the fact he finished fourth in receiver fantasy points last year.

Matthew Berry, espn.com

Incidentally, check this out:

Player A: 62 receptions on 117 targets, 1,156 yards, 40 first downs, 9 receiving TDs, 9 red zone targets, 420 yards after catch, 14 receptions of 25 yards or more.

Player B: 70 receptions on 120 targets, 902 yards, 40 first downs, 3 receiving TDs, 15 red zone targets, 400 yards after catch, 8 receptions of 25 yards or more.

Player A averaged about 15 more yards a week last year than Player B, had six more plays of 25 yards or more and the touchdowns are a big discrepancy. But everything else? Pretty close.

Player A is DeSean Jackson. Player B? Santana Moss.

Now, I'm not saying Moss is Jackson. But touchdowns are hard to predict, especially since Jackson isn't a huge red zone target. And can't at least some of the big plays be chalked up to a better quarterback? (Campbell actually had a better completion percentage than McNabb last year, but he also rarely threw downfield. Philly had 22 more completions of 20 yards or more in '09.) Energized by a new offense and quarterback, Moss could be Jackson Light this year.

[Force of Interest]

Yea I saw that too. My faith in DeSean putting up big numbers again is tied to my faith in Kolb to get him teh ball. There were more than a few times that McNabb missed him on would-be TDs (Eagles fan so I watch every minute of every game). I'm convinced Kolb can play, my only question is how well he takes care of the ball.

I don't disagree that its hard to score TDs when they mostly come from long plays, but I thought that early in the year too and he just kept flying past DBs.

[quentin cassidy]

trade talks have commenced in my keeper auction league... there's been plenty of discussion on 2 of these guys already, but i'd love to hear people's thoughts on this deal:

desean jackson (14) and ricky williams (10) for jamaal charles (15). jackson cannot be protected next year, and ricky williams is probably going to retire after 2010, so assume he has no keeper value for 2011 either. charles can be protected for 2011. salary cap is 300 units, our league starts 3 RBs and 3 WRs.

scoring: you get 2pts for 40-79 yds rushing/receiving, 7pts for 80-124 yds, 10pts for 125+.

what's the latest on the ricky williams/ronnie brown RBBC?

[JustASix]

I spent my week on the beach reading up and am pumped for the season.

I ended up with the SI fantasy football magazine and the ProFootball Forecast (I think that is the right name).
The SI one was not the biggest but the content it has I actually liked a lot. Peter King at least sounds like he knows what he is talking about (and btw he thinks Mathews is going to be huge) and the "what they are saying" segment on each team was cool. They have atricles on every team that are written by assistant coaches on other teams about the players, pretty good.
The other one is just the biggest one out there (the most pages) so it has all kinds of stuff. Nothing really stuck out except for the offensive line rankings and an article on draft strategy that I liked. This guy promotes waiting on RB (unless you are in the top 4 of the first round, sound familiar) until the middle rounds. I am all over that as I was leaning that way already.

My general thoughts, which I think are echoed by a lot of the early talk in this thread.
1. No 1st round RB unless in the top 4.
2. Get an elite QB and WR. Elite QBs are Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Romo.
3. Load up on RB in rounds 5-10. It is hard to say who the good targets are now (AOFF draft coming in two weeks) but I have a couple favorites.
4. End of the first round sucks big time.
5. TE is deep but you don't want to wait for scraps.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

trade talks have commenced in my keeper auction league... there's been plenty of discussion on 2 of these guys already, but i'd love to hear people's thoughts on this deal:

desean jackson (14) and ricky williams (10) for jamaal charles (15). jackson cannot be protected next year, and ricky williams is probably going to retire after 2010, so assume he has no keeper value for 2011 either. charles can be protected for 2011. salary cap is 300 units, our league starts 3 RBs and 3 WRs.

scoring: you get 2pts for 40-79 yds rushing/receiving, 7pts for 80-124 yds, 10pts for 125+.

what's the latest on the ricky williams/ronnie brown RBBC?

That trade is a good one for whoever is acquiring Charles.

[Get Busy Livin']

That trade is a good one for whoever is acquiring Charles.
Seconded.

[BallaActuary]

I spent my week on the beach reading up and am pumped for the season.

I ended up with the SI fantasy football magazine and the ProFootball Forecast (I think that is the right name).
The SI one was not the biggest but the content it has I actually liked a lot. Peter King at least sounds like he knows what he is talking about (and btw he thinks Mathews is going to be huge) and the "what they are saying" segment on each team was cool. They have atricles on every team that are written by assistant coaches on other teams about the players, pretty good.
The other one is just the biggest one out there (the most pages) so it has all kinds of stuff. Nothing really stuck out except for the offensive line rankings and an article on draft strategy that I liked. This guy promotes waiting on RB (unless you are in the top 4 of the first round, sound familiar) until the middle rounds. I am all over that as I was leaning that way already.

My general thoughts, which I think are echoed by a lot of the early talk in this thread.
1. No 1st round RB unless in the top 4.
2. Get an elite QB and WR. Elite QBs are Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Romo.
3. Load up on RB in rounds 5-10. It is hard to say who the good targets are now (AOFF draft coming in two weeks) but I have a couple favorites.
4. End of the first round sucks big time.
5. TE is deep but you don't want to wait for scraps.

I bought the Fantasy Football Draft Guide (has Ray Rice on the front and his caption says All Purpose RB, PPR Monster, etc). Completely worthless magazine...won't even go into what they have or don't have it's so bad.

I like Fantasy Football Index. They have the cover on their website, but I haven't seen it in stores yet so I don't know why there is a disconnect there.

I think the OL rankings are key. I always like to know which teams drafted OL/signed/upgraded their OL.


I really don't like late position this year either. The fact that the 1st pick for example gets 1,24,25 in a 12 team league vs. 12/13/36 is huge.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

I really don't like late position this year either. The fact that the 1st pick for example gets 1,24,25 in a 12 team league vs. 12/13/36 is huge.

Agreed. This year our league changed the rules so that we won't know our draft positions till just before the draft. Makes it a real pain in the ass to prepare.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

what's the latest on the ricky williams/ronnie brown RBBC?

They will probably get equal carries, then see who survives. Ricky is older, but Ronnie is injury-prone.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Snake drafts are for the weak

[MooBeay]

I spent my week on the beach reading up and am pumped for the season.

My general thoughts, which I think are echoed by a lot of the early talk in this thread.
1. No 1st round RB unless in the top 4.
2. Get an elite QB and WR. Elite QBs are Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Romo.
3. Load up on RB in rounds 5-10. It is hard to say who the good targets are now (AOFF draft coming in two weeks) but I have a couple favorites.
4. End of the first round sucks big time.
5. TE is deep but you don't want to wait for scraps.

1 - really? not sure who i would rather have
2 - goal of any league is to get elite
3 - this only works if everyone in the league has same view or else they are gone by then
4 - not if other players don'[t follow rule 1
5 - this is always the case and the scraps are barely worse

[BallaActuary]

Snake drafts are for the weak

If snake drafts draw weaker FF players and I do more work on sleepers/midseason pickups, then that's a nice recipe for free moneys.

[BallaActuary]

Agreed. This year our league changed the rules so that we won't know our draft positions till just before the draft. Makes it a real pain in the ass to prepare.

We have always done that in my one league. I've just been doing most my mock drafts from late position to prepare.

I could see someone dropping out this year if they knew they were 11th or 12th pick far ahead of the draft.

There just seems to be such a drop off this year from top tier RBs and top tier WRs available that those 3rd/4th round picks for late 1st round drafters is at such a disadvantage.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

We have always done that in my one league. I've just been doing most my mock drafts from late position to prepare.

Sounds like a good strategy, though I'll probably mix in a few early and middle picks and see how things go. While I'd rather know my draft position ahead of time, at least I can slip right into a mock draft and not have to wait for my position to open up (which can be a real pain).

[JustASix]

1 - really? not sure who i would rather have
2 - goal of any league is to get elite
3 - this only works if everyone in the league has same view or else they are gone by then
4 - not if other players don'[t follow rule 1
5 - this is always the case and the scraps are barely worse
Just did a 12 team mock from the 7 hole. Love the results.

1. AJohnson
2. MAustin (could have gone Megatron here, prob should have)
3. Brady
4. JStewart
5. FJones
6. MBarber
7. CPortis
8. TJones
9. TJ Housh
10. TOwens
11. JEdelman
12. CCooley
13. DMcfadden
14. MCassel
15. DST
16. K

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Wow that team is bad.

[JustASix]

Wow that team is bad.
:shrug: I like it a lot. Anything particular that you don't like? It doesn't have the traditional stud RB but there is at least one guy on that team that will finish the year as a stud RB, I am very confident in that.
The biggest issue I have with it is that the more I see Miles Austin's name out there the less I like him. I shuld have gone with Calvin there, or even Marshall.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Not sure why you went WR, WR, forces you to take 5 meh RBs in a row. Stewart is nice, but I'm not as high on Austin as you are, just ehhhhh, 7 hole is tough as shit.

[JustASix]

Not sure why you went WR, WR, forces you to take 5 meh RBs in a row. Stewart is nice, but I'm not as high on Austin as you are, just ehhhhh, 7 hole is tough as shit.
WR WR was because I didn't want a meh RB in the 2nd. I agree about Austin, I shouldn't have gone there. I would have taken Moss, Fitty or Wayne but they were gone.
I feel like there are no real 2nd round RBs this year. I'll take a WR over Charles, McCoy, Wells, Grant, even Benson all day.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I love Charles, and Benson less so.

[JustASix]

I love Charles, and Benson less so.
I have been wrong betting against TJones too many times now. He could be huge though.

[Force of Interest]

Felix Jones is such a frustrating player. Lot of talent but pretty injury prone. He'll have every opportunity to be "the man" in dallas (sort of) but I don't know if he'll produce consistently or not.

[JustASix]

Felix Jones is such a frustrating player. Lot of talent but pretty injury prone. He'll have every opportunity to be "the man" in dallas (sort of) but I don't know if he'll produce consistently or not.Exactly. That us why he is the perfect guy for this draft strategy. You either hit the jackpot or you use one of the other guys. Have to be able to have RB depth to draft this way.

[Force of Interest]

Exactly. That us why he is the perfect guy for this draft strategy. You either hit the jackpot or you use one of the other guys. Have to be able to have RB depth to draft this way.
Yea i see what you did, not a bad move. I have more confidence in Austin than you do by the way, I think he'll have better numbers than Megatron, who I've been a fan of since his freshman year in college.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

In the Cincy draft room on ESPN. Let's do this.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Oh it's an auction draft. Hrm.

[JustASix]

In the Cincy draft room on ESPN. Let's do this.
Im in Carolina (snake) going into the 5th round now.

[Not Mike]

Just did a 12 team mock from the 7 hole. Love the results.

1. AJohnson
2. MAustin (could have gone Megatron here, prob should have)
3. Brady
4. JStewart
5. FJones
6. MBarber
7. CPortis
8. TJones
9. TJ Housh
10. TOwens
11. JEdelman
12. CCooley
13. DMcfadden
14. MCassel
15. DST
16. K

Such a tough call, this could end up great or really bad. I hate looking at my team and thinking "3 years ago this fantasy team would have been awesome"... I'd take Calvin over Miles simply because he has to the be the #1 guy there and no one can even compete for his balls (unlike Dez, Witten, Roy W, et al).

Something about Brady scares me, but I think BB will throw it like crazy, so he should light it up.

Stewart is a solid play, could be great if Deangelo gets hurt, could suck if he gets hurt.

I personally hate the Cowboys RB situation since they throw a ton, but also because it's a 3-headed monster, not just a two-headed monster.

I really don't like many picks from R7 on, too many old guys. And I guess Edelman is a decent gamble, but I think more like R14, not R11. Decent upside gamble on McFadden late.

I actually don't think the strategy was too bad, going WR/WR and loading up on RBs. But I'd be much happier getting young upside RBs instead of old RBs.

[JustASix]

I tried this again from the 11 spot and did not like the result at all. I ended up taking brees at 11 then Fitzgerald, SSmith, DJackson. I hate this team. Rickey William and Barber as top 2 RBs with portis and LT as top backups. Way too old of a team.
I will not go QB in R1 with this strategy again. I would rather go WR/WR then take a QB at 38. that 35/38 turn is nasty there is nothing there.

[Force of Interest]

I actually don't think the strategy was too bad, going WR/WR and loading up on RBs. But I'd be much happier getting young upside RBs instead of old RBs.

Agree. Woulda taken a shot on a rookie/sophomore or two.

[JustASix]

Agree. Woulda taken a shot on a rookie/sophomore or two.
I actually wanted to but couldn't really think of any that were around late. Maybe an Arian Foster or Hardesty would have been good but all the guys with obvious oppotunity are going early now. Young RBs are all the rage now it si hard to find one that is undervalued.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

WR WR was because I didn't want a meh RB in the 2nd. I agree about Austin, I shouldn't have gone there. I would have taken Moss, Fitty or Wayne but they were gone.
I feel like there are no real 2nd round RBs this year. I'll take a WR over Charles, McCoy, Wells, Grant, even Benson all day.

Just finished my mock draft out of the 8 hole. Brees, DeAngelo, DeSean, Forte and Driver were my top 5, I'm thinking that there are many more decent WR's in the late rounds than RB's so I should probably have a QB, 4 RB's and 2 WR's in the first 7 rounds.

[Get Busy Livin']

In the Denver mock room, starts in 10 minutes. Gonna crush this thing!

If anyone is so bored that they decide to follow along, I'm the team with the longest name.

[Not Mike]

Just finished my mock draft out of the 8 hole. Brees, DeAngelo, DeSean, Forte and Driver were my top 5, I'm thinking that there are many more decent WR's in the late rounds than RB's so I should probably have a QB, 4 RB's and 2 WR's in the first 7 rounds.

I actually kind of like that draft. What other WRs were around when Desean went off? I'll stop short of saying I hate Driver in R5, but 56 feels WAY early for Driver, about 2 rounds early I think.

[Get Busy Livin']

Snake draft. Drew the first pick.

1. Chris Johnson -- very close to Adrian in my mind, kind of flipped a coin.
2. Knowshon Moreno -- chose Moreno over Ryan Mathews due to higher upside.
3. Greg Jennings -- Passed on Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub. Expecting big things due to Driver's bad knees. Heard Driver's looked bad in training camp.
4. Brett Favre -- last of the great 8 QBs. I'm not a Favre fan but had to pull the trigger
5. Mike Sims-Walker -- Didn't realize this was a start 3 RB league :oops: Took Sims-Walker over Crabtree, H-Ward, Bowe, but didn't like it. If I knew I had the flex spot, I would've taken Matt Forte over Ronnie Brown and Felix Jones.
6. Justin Forsett -- ahead of Marion Barber, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson
7. Jermichael Finley -- accidental pick (ran out of time) but probably my best choice anyway. Slim pickings at WR (Garcon probably best left)
8. Kevin Kolb -- was shocked he was still available this late. Ate him up.
9. Ben Tate -- I like aiming for home runs for my backups.
10. Chaz Schilens -- same principle as #9. In retrospect, Devin Aromashadu might've been a better gamble.
11. Arian Foster -- If Tate doesn't start, it'll probably be Foster, the current depth chart #1
12. Bernard Scott -- Break a leg, Cedric!
13. Toby Gerhart -- Break a leg, Adrian!
14. Broncos DEF
15. Lawrence Tynes

[JollyGoodFCAS]

I actually kind of like that draft. What other WRs were around when Desean went off? I'll stop short of saying I hate Driver in R5, but 56 feels WAY early for Driver, about 2 rounds early I think.

Good advice, thanks, I definitely would have been better off getting an RB at that point, and maybe even another RB in the 6th round instead of Tony Gonzalez. An RB tandem of DeAngelo, Forte, Cadillac and Slaton is not exactly a winning combo....

[3rookie]

I'm bored of all this late 1st round draft talk. I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.

Any thoughts?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

AP over CJ? Might be better to think about RR over CJ. I still do CJ.

28/29 I probably go QB/WR. The QB will be a 2nd tier (If 1st tier is Rodgers, Peypey and Brees), so Rivers, Schaub, Romo, maybe Brady if you're lucky. WR will be the 1a tier of Roddy White, Fitty, etc.

56/57 would be RB and TE/WR, so yeah Forsett or better on the RB side, and either a Witten or better TE, or if not available, best avail WR (CAR Steve Smith?)

[3rookie]

AP over CJ? Might be better to think about RR over CJ. I still do CJ.

28/29 I probably go QB/WR. The QB will be a 2nd tier (If 1st tier is Rodgers, Peypey and Brees), so Rivers, Schaub, Romo, maybe Brady if you're lucky. WR will be the 1a tier of Roddy White, Fitty, etc.

56/57 would be RB and TE/WR, so yeah Forsett or better on the RB side, and either a Witten or better TE, or if not available, best avail WR (CAR Steve Smith?)Agree @ 56/57 about TE. Hoping people forget about TEs so I can get Gates and start the TE run. Though I did get VDavis off waivers after week 2 last year.

AP is a gut feeling. You're complicating things bringing up Rice and all his receptions.

[donny5k]

I'm bored of all this late 1st round draft talk. I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.

Any thoughts?

You have to go CJ with the PPR. Any (small) margin he had in standard has to be widened. I like aiming for Romo or Schaub at 28/29 with the very QB-friendly scoring. Those 4 WRs are also excellent targets but not sure if they will be there. If Marshall is there grab him instantly with PPR. Henne can't be worse than Orton and he just got paid huge money so they will definitely use him heavily. Calvin will definitely be gone and Austin likely as well. At 56/57 you probably want to target a 2nd WR and a 2nd RB. But best available player is fine with the flex position. Someone like Wells or Stewart may slip because of lack of receptions but they would be a steal at 56. I would likely wait on TE unless V. Davis, Gates or Clark are there. I think there's a dropoff after that. Finley has upside and Witten is solid but doesn't get TDs but that seems high for them.

[Big Pete]

I think the OL rankings are key. I always like to know which teams drafted OL/signed/upgraded their OL.


I agree. Care to pass along some of those that are believed to have improved the most?

I've heard positive talk about SF, but that's about it. Have the Jets retained their top line?

[Not Mike]

I'm bored of all this late 1st round draft talk. I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.

Any thoughts?

Man, I think you're overestimating what will be there at 28/29.

3 QBs gone for sure - Rodgers/Brees/Manning
14 RBs gone for sure - CJ, ADP, RR, MJD, Gore, Turner, Mendy, SJax, Greene, Benson, Charles, Mathews, Deangelo, Grant
5 WRs gone for sure - AJ, Fitz, Moss, Wayne, Megatron

That's only 22.... 5 of these guys will be gone too:

QB - Brady, Romo, Rivers
RB - Knowshon, Beanie, Stewart, Pierre
WR - Austin, Marshall, Colston, Roddy, Desean

Unless you're in love with a guy like Cutler or Kolb, I think you have to go QB here. Looking at some lists, I'm not sure there is RB value at 56/57. You can hope Felix Jones or someone like that falls. I guess you like FJax, but Spiller is there and Lynch is a question mark. At 56/57, there could be some nice WR value - VJax, Bowe, Welker, Sims-Walker, Ward. I think I'd go QB/RB in 2/3 and then come back WR/WR or WR/TE.

[donny5k]

I agree. Care to pass along some of those that are believed to have improved the most?

I've heard positive talk about SF, but that's about it. Have the Jets retained their top line?

The Jets signed Ferguson (LT) but Mangold (C) is still looking for a better deal but I think he is in camp.

Green Bay drafted Bulaga in the late first round and they had injuries last year on the O-line. Rodgers was sacked a ton and still had the most fantasy points by a QB in standard formats. Grant is a solid RB2.

Washington and Seattle both got top ten left tackle prospects. I think if Washington wasn't in the NFC east there would be some more buzz about them. They will probably play 5 different RBs this year though with Shanahan and not having a clear #1 besides the aging Portis. The Washington WRs aren't a bad gamble for their ADP's with the clear upgrades at coach/QB/OL. It's very possible someone like Devin Thomas will end up being a waiver wire gem at some point in the season. They will likely spread the ball around though. Seattle is an enigma because noone knows what to expect from Pete Carroll. Forsett is going pretty high so he's not really a sleeper but maybe Houshmandzadeh is going a bit late for his upside.

SanFran took 2 huge O-linemen in the mid first round which imo makes Frank Gore a can't miss first round RB in all formats. Crabtree and V. Davis are both solid upside guys but are pretty much going where they should in drafts if not a little high.

[donny5k]

Man, I think you're overestimating what will be there at 28/29.

3 QBs gone for sure - Rodgers/Brees/Manning
14 RBs gone for sure - CJ, ADP, RR, MJD, Gore, Turner, Mendy, SJax, Greene, Benson, Charles, Mathews, Deangelo, Grant
5 WRs gone for sure - AJ, Fitz, Moss, Wayne, Megatron

That's only 22.... 5 of these guys will be gone too:

QB - Brady, Romo, Rivers
RB - Knowshon, Beanie, Stewart, Pierre
WR - Austin, Marshall, Colston, Roddy, Desean

Unless you're in love with a guy like Cutler or Kolb, I think you have to go QB here. Looking at some lists, I'm not sure there is RB value at 56/57. You can hope Felix Jones or someone like that falls. I guess you like FJax, but Spiller is there and Lynch is a question mark. At 56/57, there could be some nice WR value - VJax, Bowe, Welker, Sims-Walker, Ward. I think I'd go QB/RB in 2/3 and then come back WR/WR or WR/TE.
I think QB and best available RB/WR is fine at 28/29. If Marshall/Austin/Roddy is there you probably should grab them. I don't see how stud WR's could fall in 14 team PPR format though. It is more likely the top ten WRs are gone and guys like Benson, Grant, Deangelo fall. If only 6 WR's are taken in the first 2 rounds of .5 PPR 14 teams, you will have to take the 7th.

[rawl316]

Looks like favre was a bad pick.

[Force of Interest]

Looks like favre was a bad pick.
looks like I'm definitely going with Forsett over Harvin as my rookie keeper now.

[3rookie]

Man, I think you're overestimating what will be there at 28/29.

3 QBs gone for sure - Rodgers/Brees/Manning
14 RBs gone for sure - CJ, ADP, RR, MJD, Gore, Turner, Mendy, SJax, Greene, Benson, Charles, Mathews, Deangelo, Grant
5 WRs gone for sure - AJ, Fitz, Moss, Wayne, Megatron

That's only 22.... 5 of these guys will be gone too:

QB - Brady, Romo, Rivers
RB - Knowshon, Beanie, Stewart, Pierre
WR - Austin, Marshall, Colston, Roddy, Desean

Unless you're in love with a guy like Cutler or Kolb, I think you have to go QB here. Looking at some lists, I'm not sure there is RB value at 56/57. You can hope Felix Jones or someone like that falls. I guess you like FJax, but Spiller is there and Lynch is a question mark. At 56/57, there could be some nice WR value - VJax, Bowe, Welker, Sims-Walker, Ward. I think I'd go QB/RB in 2/3 and then come back WR/WR or WR/TE.Benson, Greene, and Grant drop in a PPR league, but maybe not to 28/29. Of those 4 RBs listed, I would only consider Moreno (INJ)...and Wells only if I hear things about him being their clear #1 back.

IMO in this league, the first 3 picks need to be solid point producers with little chance of being busts. I think the RBs get a little dicey here, and I'm willing to load up (in other words, guess) on them later. It's often that 3WRs are in the lineup. But I'm also not sold on all the WRs listed. We agree that a strong QB would be good.

Last year, which was the best or 2nd best draft of my life at pick #5, in order:
Brees, Wayne, Welker, RRice, WParker, Benson, Schaub (traded for Addai in week 8), then 11 uneventful picks, other than as bye week replacements. RBs available in the 2nd were KSmith, RBrown, PThomas, McFadden, Lynch, Addai (battling DBrown). I felt that group was too risky vs. Wayne. This year, I don't have to reach for RBs in the 2nd, having the #1 overall pick, but I'll take another one if he falls to me.

[3rookie]

Looks like favre was a bad pick.It's only August 3rd. I predict 2 more announcements from him. But if true, I think it hurts AP.

[rawl316]

How do you guys have drafts that start before training camp does? All of my drafts take place the last weekend in aug or later.

[3rookie]

How do you guys have drafts that start before training camp does? All of my drafts take place the last weekend in aug or later.I have the one slow (keeper) auction that's still going now. My big draft on Aug 24 is definitely too early, but the other possibility was Aug 17. My 3rd league is either Tues or Thurs of the opening week.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

Forsett is going pretty high so he's not really a sleeper but maybe Houshmandzadeh is going a bit late for his upside.


Housh should do better than last year, but for a really deep sleeper take a look at WR Golden Tate. I know I'm biased b/c I'm a Notre Dame fan but the guy's got a load of talent - could be this year's version of Percy Harvin.

[MooBeay]

I'm bored of all this late 1st round draft talk. I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.

Any thoughts?

ahh one of the top 3 QBs would be nice since scoring is definitely in their favor. 15 yards a point? get out.

[MooBeay]

It's only August 3rd. I predict 2 more announcements from him. But if true, I think it hurts AP.

how so? he put up 1800 yards the year before favre.

[MooBeay]

Housh should do better than last year, but for a really deep sleeper take a look at WR Golden Tate. I know I'm biased b/c I'm a Notre Dame fan but the guy's got a load of talent - could be this year's version of Percy Harvin.

such a deep sleeper he'll be on the waiver wire still in week 16. but keep an eye out for him.

[JustASix]

I'm bored of all this late 1st round draft talk. I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.

Any thoughts?I would do the same. Your favortie RB at #1, Top remaining QB at 28 and top remaining WR at 29. 56/57 are both RB ( Felix Jones should be one of them if he is there).

[JustASix]

how so? he put up 1800 yards the year before favre.
Yep. I actually think this helps AP. You won't see those 2 yard TD passes to the TE anymore. He will get the ball all the time when they get close. The defense is good enough to keep them in games.
I like what this does for Gerhart's value too. He may be more than a handcuff now.

[quentin cassidy]

I would likely wait on TE unless V. Davis, Gates or Clark are there. I think there's a dropoff after that. Finley has upside and Witten is solid but doesn't get TDs but that seems high for them.

Shouldn't Celek be mentioned in there somewhere? 1000 yds / 8 TDs last year, and FWIW, 208 yds in the 2 games Kolb started.

[donny5k]

Yep. I actually think this helps AP. You won't see those 2 yard TD passes to the TE anymore. He will get the ball all the time when they get close. The defense is good enough to keep them in games.
I like what this does for Gerhart's value too. He may be more than a handcuff now.

He led the league in carries inside the 5 last year. A better QB = more opportunities.

[BallaActuary]

Snake draft. Drew the first pick.

1. Chris Johnson -- very close to Adrian in my mind, kind of flipped a coin.
2. Knowshon Moreno -- chose Moreno over Ryan Mathews due to higher upside.
3. Greg Jennings -- Passed on Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub. Expecting big things due to Driver's bad knees. Heard Driver's looked bad in training camp.
4. Brett Favre -- last of the great 8 QBs. I'm not a Favre fan but had to pull the trigger
5. Mike Sims-Walker -- Didn't realize this was a start 3 RB league :oops: Took Sims-Walker over Crabtree, H-Ward, Bowe, but didn't like it. If I knew I had the flex spot, I would've taken Matt Forte over Ronnie Brown and Felix Jones.
6. Justin Forsett -- ahead of Marion Barber, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson
7. Jermichael Finley -- accidental pick (ran out of time) but probably my best choice anyway. Slim pickings at WR (Garcon probably best left)
8. Kevin Kolb -- was shocked he was still available this late. Ate him up.
9. Ben Tate -- I like aiming for home runs for my backups.
10. Chaz Schilens -- same principle as #9. In retrospect, Devin Aromashadu might've been a better gamble.
11. Arian Foster -- If Tate doesn't start, it'll probably be Foster, the current depth chart #1
12. Bernard Scott -- Break a leg, Cedric!
13. Toby Gerhart -- Break a leg, Adrian!
14. Broncos DEF
15. Lawrence Tynes

I see you want some RBs to break a leg, but it's funny your 2nd pick has already ruptured something useful. I don't believe for a second it's only a strain...IANAD, but strains don't go pop.

Why take 2 Houston picks? They are a pass-first team and did you see the gross RBBBC Kubiak used last year?

I hope this was just a mock :eek:

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

No Favre sends AP to 4th, IMO

[BallaActuary]

I tried this again from the 11 spot and did not like the result at all. I ended up taking brees at 11 then Fitzgerald, SSmith, DJackson. I hate this team. Rickey William and Barber as top 2 RBs with portis and LT as top backups. Way too old of a team.
I will not go QB in R1 with this strategy again. I would rather go WR/WR then take a QB at 38. that 35/38 turn is nasty there is nothing there.

Yeah, if you take a top QB with 11 or 12, things get really depressing at 35/36/36/38. Schaub or maybe Romo might be there at 35-38. The difference in QB, WR, WR then WR, WR, QB is huge as I don't that big of a difference between Rodgers/BRees and Schaub/Romo compared to the difference in WRs you will draft.

[billyinvegas]

No Favre sends AP to 4th, IMO

That's just crazy talk DJZ. I expected better from you.

[billyinvegas]

Taking a QB and a TE in your 1st seven picks is stupidity. Better pray for no injuries because your team's depth is going to suck.

[BallaActuary]

I'm bored of all this late 1st round draft talk. I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.

Any thoughts?

Wow, feel lucky

I doubt those WRs are there at 28/29....if you get one of them, that's great. I'd take one of them and Benson at that point.

56/57...in PPR, I think those all have good value. It will be an easier pick since one or two of those will probably be gone.

[BallaActuary]

Agree @ 56/57 about TE. Hoping people forget about TEs so I can get Gates and start the TE run. Though I did get VDavis off waivers after week 2 last year.

AP is a gut feeling. You're complicating things bringing up Rice and all his receptions.

If your response is that you found a TE stud on the WW, why would you reach at 56/57 to get one?

I would rather have upside RBs like Forte and Forsett at this turn. I think there are some good sleeper TE candidates this year.

[BallaActuary]

I agree. Care to pass along some of those that are believed to have improved the most?

I've heard positive talk about SF, but that's about it. Have the Jets retained their top line?

I don't remember specifics (I'm at about 20% of my preparation for the drafts), but the Lions signed one OL and have one of their key OL returning from injury. Their defense should still be suspect, but I think they will have improved enough to give their FF passing/receiving stats much higher upside

Wash, Seattle, and SF both drafted OL early.



The one thing about the Jets this year is their schedule. They play the NFC North (Chi, Det, GB, Min) and AFC North (Bal, Cin, Pit, Cle). Last year they played the NFC South and AFC South. That is a brutal lineup of defenses to run against. I like their OL and run-first mentality, but with a 2nd year QB and so-so WRs, I'm really staying far away from Greene this year.

His three best games in terms of YPC were against Oak, Ind, TB... but none of those teams stopped anybody running the ball.

[3rookie]

how so? he put up 1800 yards the year before favre.
Yep. I actually think this helps AP. You won't see those 2 yard TD passes to the TE anymore. He will get the ball all the time when they get close. The defense is good enough to keep them in games.
I like what this does for Gerhart's value too. He may be more than a handcuff now.
He led the league in carries inside the 5 last year. A better QB = more opportunities.
No Favre sends AP to 4th, IMONow this is what I'm talking about. I have no clue. But I'll trust Zoidberg. He's a doctor.

[3rookie]

Wow, feel lucky

I doubt those WRs are there at 28/29....if you get one of them, that's great. I'd take one of them and Benson at that point.

56/57...in PPR, I think those all have good value. It will be an easier pick since one or two of those will probably be gone.I figure 3-5 QBs gone, 14-17 RBs gone, and 5-8 WRs gone. I'm counting on others to reach for RBs, but you may be right that the WRs go crazy in the 2nd round. I'll be open to best available. I'm not high on Benson this year though, especially w/.5 PPR.If your response is that you found a TE stud on the WW, why would you reach at 56/57 to get one?

I would rather have upside RBs like Forte and Forsett at this turn. I think there are some good sleeper TE candidates this year.You make a good point. The only TE I'd consider @56/57 is Gates. But this spot seems like the last best chance for decent RBs.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Now this is what I'm talking about. I have no clue. But I'll trust Zoidberg. He's a doctor.

Thanks! I admit he'll get more carries if he's healthy all season, I just don't trust that to be the case. Defenses will be tuned in to him, and even if they're worried about Harvin on end-arounds, rolled up safeties will not help the cause. He might do 360 for 1500 or something, but given his prior years, injury just looms over this.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

I think there are some good sleeper TE candidates this year.

Aside from Carlson, who else do you think are good sleeper TE candidates? When I took Celek in the 13th round last year it was hardly a shot in the dark since he had put up some good numbers in the playoffs and LJ Smith was gone. Could there be another Celek out there?

[MooBeay]

Thanks! I admit he'll get more carries if he's healthy all season, I just don't trust that to be the case. Defenses will be tuned in to him, and even if they're worried about Harvin on end-arounds, rolled up safeties will not help the cause. He might do 360 for 1500 or something, but given his prior years, injury just looms over this.

given his prior years? does that mean you think he has too much wear and tear on him this year all ready just his 4th?

chris johnson touched the ball 50 more times last year.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

given his prior years? does that mean you think he has too much wear and tear on him this year all ready just his 4th?

chris johnson touched the ball 50 more times last year.

He's been in 14, 16, and 16 games. Just sayin'. He's going to take a pounding this year, and not in the sexy way.

[jayhawk]

Does the order of top tier RB change much if it is 1pnt/20 rush yds but 2 bonus points at 100 rush or 100 rec yds and every 50 yds after that? This slightly devalues guys that get 75 yds rush and 75 yds rec in a game and increases the value of guys that get the 25 rush attemts and 3 rec/game. Does it do enough to change the order you would take guys though? There is also a bonus point for every 3 rec and 10 rush attempts.

[MooBeay]

Does the order of top tier RB change much if it is 1pnt/20 rush yds but 2 bonus points at 100 rush or 100 rec yds and every 50 yds after that? This slightly devalues guys that get 75 yds rush and 75 yds rec in a game and increases the value of guys that get the 25 rush attemts and 3 rec/game. Does it do enough to change the order you would take guys though? There is also a bonus point for every 3 rec and 10 rush attempts.

seems like dumb scoring system...however, it probably tweeks the rankings a little, but not enough to worry.

[rawl316]

Maclin got carted off. They said he hurt his knee running a route with no contact

[MooBeay]

Maclin got carted off. They said he hurt his knee running a route with no contact

well f*ck. just f*ck.

[Not Mike]

Maclin got carted off. They said he hurt his knee running a route with no contact

Desean and Lesean stock rising.

[BallaActuary]

Desean and Lesean stock rising.

I think Lesean is going to be a huge fantasy disappointment this year.

[MountainHawk]

I think Lesean is going to be a huge fantasy disappointment this year.
You think the Eagles might underutilize the RB position. That would be shocking.

[donny5k]

I think Lesean is going to be a huge fantasy disappointment this year.

If this is the case then Kevin Kolb will be a huge disappointment as well. I expect mediocrity rather than misery for both. Kolb this year reminds me of Matt Cassel last year but I don't expect as bad of a season as Cassel had. But the situation is similar, tons of expectations, not a lot of evidence to support the ADP.

[BallaActuary]

You think the Eagles might underutilize the RB position. That would be shocking.

It's not only that, their schedule is brutal.

They play the NFC North. While Detroit's secondary is still bad, Suh (once he is signed) is good enough to drastically help their poor run defense. Chicago should be much better with Peppers and the return of Urlacher. GB and MIN are strong vs. the run

The AFC South is weaker and Atl helps a little. Then they get SF who was great vs. the run last year.

6 games vs. NYG, DAL, and WAS. All three of those teams will throw the ball. I don't see a chance for Philly to sit around and consume game clock by giving McCoy 320 rushes this year.

With such a tough schedule, I really don't see a great chance for him to pad his FF stats by running out the clock in the 4th quarter. Garbage time points are key in FF.


His ADP of late 3rd round is way too high.

[MooBeay]

You think the Eagles might underutilize the RB position. That would be shocking.

before the last year of injuries, the 3 previous seasons Westbrook avg 1800 yards and 12 TDs...underutilized? set that bar high homie.

[Wasp]

I did two 12 redraft mock drafts at the 11th and 12th spot and all I can say is :exams:

LBJ, ADP, MJD, and RRR should be 1-4... but after (maybe) Gore and Turner at 5 and 6, things at the 1st round RB position look scary. Sjax and DeWill are injury concerns. LT is old, but NYJ have a great running OL.

Previous 1st round WRs like Randy Moss (2 games vs. Revis and unhappy Brady) and Warnerless Fitz make their value questionable. Andre Johnson deserves a 1st round spot, so really if you have picks 8-12 who the eff do you draft?

I want to believe Matt Forte is going to have a lot of sleeper value with Martz there even if Chester Taylor signed with them.

That's all I know for now

Make sure you take Dez Bryant early, he's a real team player.

[BallaActuary]

He led the league in carries inside the 5 last year. A better QB = more opportunities.

lolololol there are all kinds of donkaments in this statement

[MooBeay]

lolololol there are all kinds of donkaments in this statement

so whre do you like ADP? around 5?

is steven jackson top 5?

do we have a list on some page with a general RB and QB ranking?

i saw espn had Drew, Aaron, Peyton, Tom, and Matt as the top 5.

[donny5k]

lolololol there are all kinds of donkaments in this statement

I don't understand what was wrong with the statement. Favre being gone hurts Peterson. He got the most TD opportunities in the league last year because of Favre (and Chester not poaching goal line work).

[BallaActuary]

I don't understand what was wrong with the statement. Favre being gone hurts Peterson. He got the most TD opportunities in the league last year because of Favre (and Chester not poaching goal line work).

RB1 has 10 1st and goals from the 5. RB2 has 10 1st and goals from the 5. RB1 scores 10 TDs on his 10 1st and goals. RB2 gets the ball each of the four downs but fails to score any touchdowns in any of the 10 drives. RB1 has 10 carries inside the 5 and RB2 carries has 40. By your logic, RB2 is better. Clearly this is not the case. Someone who takes 2+ tries to score a TD from the 5 does not have more "opportunities" to score than someone who scores on their first try.

If RB1 scores 5 times and doesn't score 5 times and RB2 scores 5 times/loses a fumble 5 times, they both have 10 carries and should be equal by your logic. But they aren't. ADP has a propensity to fumble in key situations.

Someone who can consistently score from 6+ yards out isn't necessarily missing out on opportunities to score. When LBJ runs a TD for 80 yards, what does his QB have to do with that?

ADP dances around too much near the goalline. Go back and watch some his non-TD highlights. Yes, according to this stat he had the most carries, but I know he was not the most efficient when asked to score from close to the goalline. LT (number 2 in that chart) ran straight, but their OL gave him absolutely no push to get into the endzone. 1st and goal from the 3, 1 yard. 2nd and goal from the 2, 1 yard. 3rd and goal from the 1, touchdown...3 CARRIES, only 1 touchdown.

Lastly, how many extra opportunities do you think Mark Sanchez gave 3rd. Thomas Jones and David Garrard gave 4th. Maurice Jones-Drew? lol

For this chart to be meaningful, you need two parts
1) How many drives did this RB's team have a play inside the 5
2) A stat such as TDs/carries inside 5 to reduce the redundant carries to score on the same drive.



Obviously, I think ADP has a lot of value compared to most other RBs, but you should see now why your comment was soooo wrong.

[donny5k]

Come on. He probably led the league in number of drives where he had a carry inside the 5 also. This is a standard stat that tons of people use. He also led the league in rushing TDs...

[dlwktb]

Also, I think donny's only point (and correct me if I'm wrong donny) was that he likely will NOT lead the league in that stat without Favre.

[donny5k]

Also, I think donny's only point (and correct me if I'm wrong donny) was that he likely will NOT lead the league in that stat without Favre.

Correct.

[BallaActuary]

Come on. He probably led the league in number of drives where he had a carry inside the 5 also. This is a standard stat that tons of people use. He also led the league in rushing TDs...

When ADP was 2nd in rushing TDs in 2007, was that because of Favre?
When DeWill led the league in rushing TDs in 2008, was that because of a great QB?
Did 3 of the top 4 (LBJ, TJ, and MJD) in 2009 rushing TDs get there because of great QBs leading their team?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

When ADP was 2nd in rushing TDs in 2007, was that because of Favre?
When DeWill led the league in rushing TDs in 2008, was that because of a great QB?
Did 3 of the top 4 (LBJ, TJ, and MJD) in 2009 rushing TDs get there because of great QBs leading their team?

Balla, would you like to wager on ADP's yards, tds, fantasy points or whatever?

[donny5k]

When ADP was 2nd in rushing TDs in 2007, was that because of Favre?
When DeWill led the league in rushing TDs in 2008, was that because of a great QB?
Did 3 of the top 4 (LBJ, TJ, and MJD) in 2009 rushing TDs get there because of great QBs leading their team?

There's competing variables at play and I didn't say you need a great QB to get a large number of TDs. Although AP had his worst season last year from an efficiency standpoint, he scored the most TDs due to getting more opportunities to score.

If all else is equal (including scheme), a better QB will lead to more points, a more efficient offense, and more scoring opportunities for skill position players including the #1 RB.

[rawl316]

Balla, would you like to wager on ADP's yards, tds, fantasy points or whatever?

Any decrease in production is going to be due to him being a workhorse for 3 years. I'd be curious to hear what wager you had in mind.

[Wasp]

Balla, would you like to wager on ADP's yards, tds, fantasy points or whatever?

Who says Favre is going to retire anytime in the next 10 years?

[BallaActuary]

Balla, would you like to wager on ADP's yards, tds, fantasy points or whatever?

That's too generic for me to answer. Do you think his production falls way down this year?

I think ADP is good with or without Favre, but I don't think he is this mythical FF creation.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

That's too generic for me to answer. Do you think his production falls way down this year?

I think ADP is good with or without Favre, but I don't think he is this mythical FF creation.

330-1350-10 seem right?

[BallaActuary]

There's competing variables at play and I didn't say you need a great QB to get a large number of TDs. Although AP had his worst season last year from an efficiency standpoint, he scored the most TDs due to getting more opportunities to score.

If all else is equal (including scheme), a better QB will lead to more points, a more efficient offense, and more scoring opportunities for skill position players including the #1 RB.

We aren't talking about skill players. We are talking about RBs. Of course, Reggie Wayne has more value with Peyton than JaMarcus

2009 Team Rushing TD leaders (passing yds rank):
1. Baltimore (18th)
2. Miami (20th)
3. New Orleans (4th)
4. NY Jets (31st)
5. Green Bay (7th)
6. Jacksonville (19th)
7. Minnesota (8th)
8. New England (3rd)
9. Tennessee (23rd)
10. Carolina (27th)

Yeah, the correlation between rushing TDs and a good passing game/QB seems to be close to 1. :shake:

[BallaActuary]

330-1350-10 seem right?

You want the under?

What if he hits 310-1400-8 or 340-1300-12?

Would there be an injury clause? He has avoided fate for too long with how physical he runs.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

You want the under?

What if he hits 310-1400-8 or 340-1300-12?

Would there be an injury clause? He has avoided fate for too long with how physical he runs.

Which is why I'm so heavy on the under. What do you predict his average season is for '10?

[donny5k]

Yeah, the correlation between rushing TDs and a good passing game/QB seems to be close to 1. :shake:

I never claimed a correlation. I said if everything else is equal, a better passing game helps rushing TDs. If Mark Sanchez improves, the Jets will score more rushing TDs most likely. This has nothing to do with a correlation of 1 (because everything else is NEVER equal).

I am talking about isolating the marginal impact of QB play on rushing TDs. You are looking at the total results with all the other variables' impacts in there.

[Wasp]

This is moot. Favre has another $7M reasons not to retire. I like how Minnesota management actually values the HOFer unlike the idiots in GB who rode him out on a rail.

Please come back Brett!!! Sweep the green bay fudgepackers one more year.

[Not Mike]

This is moot. Favre has another $7M reasons not to retire. I like how Minnesota management actually values the HOFer unlike the idiots in GB who rode him out on a rail.

Please come back Brett!!! Sweep the green bay fudgepackers one more year.

The Pack made the right decision banking their future on Aaron Rodgers. Easy decision.

[BallaActuary]

Which is why I'm so heavy on the under. What do you predict his average season is for '10?

I don't really know.

He seems to have a lot going against him though IMO.

I don't think Rosenfels is that bad. He had a lot of weapons in Houston and was able to reasonably move the ball. Defenses would have to at least respect the passing game. The key point is that when you have a Peyton or Drew, they are able to throw a lot of passing TDs. Yes, they move the ball effectively, but they do it so effectively, it negatively impacts RBs chance to score short TDs because they throw so many passing TDs. I think Rosenfels is good enough to move the ball, but not good enough to damage ADPs TDs. I don't trust TJackson. His decision making and arm are both poor. Defenses will stack against ADP and make noodle arm throw the ball.

His schedule is scary this year. GB played him tough last year (2 games)
Chicago didn't have their leader Urlacher last year, they looked lost. Peppers will be a key addition as I think he will be motivated to play. I certainly don't see 49 car, 179 yds, 61 rec yds, 3 TDs production vs. Chicago again
He had 33 car, 225 yds, 34 rec yds, 3 TDs vs. Detroit. Detroit isn't Chicago, but I see a 20-25% drop in those numbers. Again, I think Suh is that good to change a whole defensive front.

The NFC East will be a tough 4 games. They also get the Jets. The AFC East is okay, but certainly harder than the NFC West they played last year.

He gets one creampuff game vs. Buffalo which could replace his monster Cleveland game last year. But no other game screams, wow, look at me.


I think he will get injured for at least 3 games this year. He had 357 rushes/receptions last year, 384 in 2008, and 257 in 2007. That's a lot of freakin wear and tear in the past 2 years.

[donny5k]

Good stuff. I definitely like the floor of MJD better than AP. Ceiling for AP has to be a bit higher but I believe they are closer than AP and CJ. I think Johnson is the clear #1 this year with VY starting from game 1. Injury risk is the only source of downside for him imo and AP's injury risk is higher.

[MooBeay]

Good stuff. I definitely like the floor of MJD better than AP. Ceiling for AP has to be a bit higher but I believe they are closer than AP and CJ. I think Johnson is the clear #1 this year with VY starting from game 1. Injury risk is the only source of downside for him imo and AP's injury risk is higher.

really on the CJ? He touched the ball 50 times more than ADP last year. Seems primed as an injury concern. vince young can steal some short goal line carries also...i don't like that.

[BallaActuary]

I never claimed a correlation. I said if everything else is equal, a better passing game helps rushing TDs. If Mark Sanchez improves, the Jets will score more rushing TDs most likely. This has nothing to do with a correlation of 1 (because everything else is NEVER equal).

I am talking about isolating the marginal impact of QB play on rushing TDs. You are looking at the total results with all the other variables' impacts in there.

Let's look at the bottom 10 team rushing TDs for 2009 (and their passing ranks)
32. St. Louis (28th)
31. Tampa Bay (24th)
30. Chicago (17th)
29. Buffalo (30th)
28. Seattle (15th)
27. Oakland (29th)
26. Washington (16th)
25. Kansas City (25th)
24. Detroit (21st)
23. Denver (13rd)

I agree with you on this: if you have a QB who sucks, you can't move the ball, and there will be very few opportunities to run for TDs. This list supports that, IMO.

But saying a good QB gives a RB more opportunities to score is basically true, but deceptive. Like I said about ADP, the BEST QBs are so efficient passing, there efficiency starts becoming a negative for RBs. When was the last time Addai was relevant in the FF running game? Houston had the league's most passing yards last year, but a running game ranked 30th. Green Bay's rushing TDs are distorted since Rodgers had 5 himself (which is a high number for non-RB rushing TDs).

The ideal running backs are teamed up with decent QBs, but not scary good QBs. It's why I took MJD over ADP as #1 last year in my league (they ended up scoring essentially the same points, but on paper, it was the right move).

Chris Johnson is electrifying. With Kerry Collins as starting QB in the first 7 games, CJ only had 95 carries and 4 TDs. We can agree that more carries (inside or outside the 5) translates to more RB FF points in terms of yards and TDs. Kerry Collins was inept. Bad QB, no offensive movement, fewer opportunities for the RB (again, CJ isn't normal, but he clearly had a change in QB so I will use him as my example).*
Vince Young is decent. In 9 games Young started, CJ had 263 carries and 10 TDs. Young could move the ball effective enough to give CJ many more productive carries. A decent QB on a running team = absolute best situation for RB.
But if Young were Manning or Brees, those 263/10 probably becomes 195/7. 5 or 6 extra carries per drive because Young isn't great get wiped away by a long passing TD or more faith by the coach to have the QB throw more passes.


*Cortland Finnegan missed 3 games while Collins started. They lost 37-17 to Jax, 31-9 to Indy, and 59-0 to NE in those games. His absence made their defense p1ss poor and not being able to stop powerful passing offenses is the worst situation for a RB. However, they probably still fall behind vs. Indy and NE quickly enough where it wouldn't have given CJ that many more opportunities. I'd say he lost out on 30 total carries and maybe 1 TD with Finnegan out.

[BallaActuary]

really on the CJ? He touched the ball 50 times more than ADP last year. Seems primed as an injury concern. vince young can steal some short goal line carries also...i don't like that.

If you posted this not knowing how differently they act when they are about to get tackled, then it's not even worth debating with you.

[MooBeay]

If you posted this not knowing how differently they act when they are about to get tackled, then it's not even worth debating with you.

so CJ is not an injury concern now? he rushes 350 times a year. no matter what that makes him an injury concern. he led the league last year in rushes. how does that usually fair for halfbacks?

and yes, i have seen both play. and i watch most minny games, but don't get caught up in the highlights. must of both their rushes are going to be in between the tackles with large bodies falling on them.

[MooBeay]

Let's look at the bottom 10 team rushing TDs for 2009 (and their passing ranks)
32. St. Louis (28th)
31. Tampa Bay (24th)
30. Chicago (17th)
29. Buffalo (30th)
28. Seattle (15th)
27. Oakland (29th)
26. Washington (16th)
25. Kansas City (25th)
24. Detroit (21st)
23. Denver (13rd)

I agree with you on this: if you have a QB who sucks, you can't move the ball, and there will be very few opportunities to run for TDs. This list supports that, IMO.

But saying a good QB gives a RB more opportunities to score is basically true, but deceptive. Like I said about ADP, the BEST QBs are so efficient passing, there efficiency starts becoming a negative for RBs. When was the last time Addai was relevant in the FF running game? Houston had the league's most passing yards last year, but a running game ranked 30th. Green Bay's rushing TDs are distorted since Rodgers had 5 himself (which is a high number for non-RB rushing TDs).

The ideal running backs are teamed up with decent QBs, but not scary good QBs. It's why I took MJD over ADP as #1 last year in my league (they ended up scoring essentially the same points, but on paper, it was the right move).

Chris Johnson is electrifying. With Kerry Collins as starting QB in the first 7 games, CJ only had 95 carries and 4 TDs. We can agree that more carries (inside or outside the 5) translates to more RB FF points in terms of yards and TDs. Kerry Collins was inept. Bad QB, no offensive movement, fewer opportunities for the RB (again, CJ isn't normal, but he clearly had a change in QB so I will use him as my example).*
Vince Young is decent. In 9 games Young started, CJ had 263 carries and 10 TDs. Young could move the ball effective enough to give CJ many more productive carries. A decent QB on a running team = absolute best situation for RB.
But if Young were Manning or Brees, those 263/10 probably becomes 195/7. 5 or 6 extra carries per drive because Young isn't great get wiped away by a long passing TD or more faith by the coach to have the QB throw more passes.


*Cortland Finnegan missed 3 games while Collins started. They lost 37-17 to Jax, 31-9 to Indy, and 59-0 to NE in those games. His absence made their defense p1ss poor and not being able to stop powerful passing offenses is the worst situation for a RB. However, they probably still fall behind vs. Indy and NE quickly enough where it wouldn't have given CJ that many more opportunities. I'd say he lost out on 30 total carries and maybe 1 TD with Finnegan out.

huh...30 total carries? and my estimate of the first 7 games has him at 119. add in 30 carries and we have about 150. which would put him on pace for 343...what did he end up with? you whole analysis seems off.

[MooBeay]

Edge James finished top 6 four times with manning in fantasy. first two seasons he was one and two.

[MooBeay]

Addai finished 10th last year splitting carries and missing a game.
In 2007 he finished 5th while missing a game.

[MooBeay]

Grant had 11 TDs for Green Bay and was the 8th best back last year.

[BallaActuary]

huh...30 total carries? and my estimate of the first 7 games has him at 119. add in 30 carries and we have about 150. which would put him on pace for 343...what did he end up with? you whole analysis seems off.

Collins started 6 games, Young 10 games. I'm human.

[BallaActuary]

Addai finished 10th last year splitting carries and missing a game.
In 2007 he finished 5th while missing a game.

lol Where did Addai and Grant finish in rushing TDs in 2008? Do you just skip years so you can fail miserably at trying to make a point?

When DeWill led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2008, was Drew Brees or Peyton Manning throwing for the Panthers?

[Force of Interest]

This is moot. Favre has another $7M reasons not to retire. I like how Minnesota management actually values the HOFer unlike the idiots in GB who rode him out on a rail.

Please come back Brett!!! Sweep the green bay fudgepackers one more year.

rodgers is a stud, good move by GB imo. he told them he was retiring. Minny has a much stronger supporting cast. And stop pleading for Favre, its as pathetic as he is.

[donny5k]

lol Where did Addai and Grant finish in rushing TDs in 2008? Do you just skip years so you can fail miserably at trying to make a point?

When DeWill led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2008, was Drew Brees or Peyton Manning throwing for the Panthers?

I recall Addai being hurt that year and Dominic Rhodes nabbed 6 rushing TDs.

[donny5k]

Leaving Touchdowns out of the picture, I think we can agree that a better QB can only improve the #1 RB from an efficiency per carry standpoint. The question is does the scheme adjust if the passing game is better, tilting the ratio of plays, particularly scoring plays, in favor of the QB. This certainly does happen, but is balanced by the efficiency improvement.

It is more clear when a stud WR is added to the offense though. I think Marshall's arrival in Miami and to a lesser extent TO arriving in Cincy hurt Ronnie Brown (although injury risk may go down) and Benson a bit. Mainly because they are big targets in the red zone.

[Doc Holiday]

Do I keep Calvin Johnson (round 4) or Cedric Benson (round 8)?

I"m in a keeper league and I'm having trouble picking my third keeper.
I'm keeping AP (round 1) and MJD (round 2).


The round of your keeper is where you forego your draft pick. Benson's rankings on the draft boards is all over the map. CJ was unreliable for me last year.

[BallaActuary]

I recall Addai being hurt that year and Dominic Rhodes nabbed 6 rushing TDs.

This is what moo does. He picks one example out of 20 that contradicts a post you make and completely ignores everything else. I mentioned Houston and he ignores it. I could have said New Orleans and he would have ignored it.

How about Ryan Grant in 2008? What was his excuse?

[BallaActuary]

Do I keep Calvin Johnson (round 4) or Cedric Benson (round 8)?

I"m in a keeper league and I'm having trouble picking my third keeper.
I'm keeping AP (round 1) and MJD (round 2).


The round of your keeper is where you forego your draft pick. Benson's rankings on the draft boards is all over the map. CJ was unreliable for me last year.

I think Benson is a beast, but I'm really high on CJ this year. His situation is far different this year than last.

His OL should improve, Stafford has a year under his belt, and they brought in Burleson (who is a good WR2) to alleviate double teams. If Pettigrew can recover from his ACL, he proved to be a legit TE option. Best and KSmith should provide a decent running game. Their defense is still not great so they should be involved in high scoring games.

And since you already have 2 stud RBs, that helps me lean keep the stud WR.

[donny5k]

I think Benson is a beast, but I'm really high on CJ this year. His situation is far different this year than last.

His OL should improve, Stafford has a year under his belt, and they brought in Burleson (who is a good WR2) to alleviate double teams. If Pettigrew can recover from his ACL, he proved to be a legit TE option. Best and KSmith should provide a decent running game. Their defense is still not great so they should be involved in high scoring games.

And since you already have 2 stud RBs, that helps me lean keep the stud WR.
But does Benson + round 4 draft pick (e.g. Marques Colston) = Megatron + round 8 draft pick (e.g. Fred Jackson). That would be a pretty even trade I would think. I agree though since he already has 2 clear starters at RB a top notch WR is more important to his roster. Can you start 3 RB in this league?

[donny5k]

This is what moo does. He picks one example out of 20 that contradicts a post you make and completely ignores everything else. I mentioned Houston and he ignores it. I could have said New Orleans and he would have ignored it.

How about Ryan Grant in 2008? What was his excuse?

I didn't contradict, just answered your question. You make a valid point, although you did it to me a few times too.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I keep Benson. He's so much better than a standard 8th round pick. And you can always pick up CJ if you really were that desperate

[Doc Holiday]

But does Benson + round 4 draft pick (e.g. Marques Colston) = Megatron + round 8 draft pick (e.g. Fred Jackson). That would be a pretty even trade I would think. I agree though since he already has 2 clear starters at RB a top notch WR is more important to his roster. Can you start 3 RB in this league?

This league has 2 starting RBs, 2 starting WRS, and a starting flex RB/WR (also the QB, TE, K, D)

[Force of Interest]

I keep Benson. He's so much better than a standard 8th round pick. And you can always pick up CJ if you really were that desperate
Normally I would go with who I think is better which is Calvin, but in this case I would go with Benson for the reasoning above. It also guards a little against a disappointing season from Benson because you got him with an 8th round pick. That gives you 3 RBs who are all going to get a lot of carries, very rare in fantasy these days.

[donny5k]

I lean toward Benson + 4th round pick then. Is it PPR? That would make me lean toward CJ maybe. It's close.

[Doc Holiday]

I lean toward Benson + 4th round pick then. Is it PPR? That would make me lean toward CJ maybe. It's close.

Its not PPR. Its the toughest decision I've come across in years.

[Force of Interest]

Its not PPR. Its the toughest decision I've come across in years.
i think no PPR makes it easier.

[3rookie]

Its not PPR. Its the toughest decision I've come across in years.10 or 12 teams, and what pick do you have in the 3rd round? Who are some players you project to be there for your 3rd and 4th round picks? It's unlikely that solid RBs will be there.

I lean Benson.

[BallaActuary]

But does Benson + round 4 draft pick (e.g. Marques Colston) = Megatron + round 8 draft pick (e.g. Fred Jackson). That would be a pretty even trade I would think. I agree though since he already has 2 clear starters at RB a top notch WR is more important to his roster. Can you start 3 RB in this league?

I keep Benson. He's so much better than a standard 8th round pick. And you can always pick up CJ if you really were that desperate

Good points. That does make more sense.

Doc, what WRs will be probably there in round 4?

[JollyGoodFCAS]

I think Benson is a beast, but I'm really high on CJ this year. His situation is far different this year than last.

His OL should improve, Stafford has a year under his belt, and they brought in Burleson (who is a good WR2) to alleviate double teams. If Pettigrew can recover from his ACL, he proved to be a legit TE option. Best and KSmith should provide a decent running game. Their defense is still not great so they should be involved in high scoring games.

And since you already have 2 stud RBs, that helps me lean keep the stud WR.

Calvin will put up great numbers when healthy, problem is he keeps getting injured. I've been picking up Burleson in my mock drafts. He put up good numbers for Seattle last year, he'll get many targets as a #2 receiver and will be a solid starter when Calvin sits.

[Big Pete]

Keeper #1 = MJD. Keeper #2: Mendenhall or Megatron?

10-team league - QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, no flex - 0.5 ppr, picking 4th, assume the following will not be kept:
R Moss, Mathews (rookie), Grant, P Thomas, Romo, and either Fitzgerald or Brees.
Also assume pick #1 will not be a RB and zero chance of Mendenhall making it past the Steeler fan at #3.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I have a hardon for Mendenhall. Go with it.

[BallaActuary]

I have a hardon for Mendenhall. Go with it.

As long as you aren't wearing crocs...

[BallaActuary]

Calvin will put up great numbers when healthy, problem is he keeps getting injured. I've been picking up Burleson in my mock drafts. He put up good numbers for Seattle last year, he'll get many targets as a #2 receiver and will be a solid starter when Calvin sits.

Burleson missed three games last year and ONLY played in one game in 2008. I guess you can't keep "getting injured" if you suffer a season-ending injury in week one.

I know CJ missed some games last year and played in a few hurt (6?), but he played in all 16 in 2008... so he's still more reliable than Burleson :wink:

But I agree, Burleson has good hands and will be a nice complement to CJ.

[3rookie]

Keeper #1 = MJD. Keeper #2: Mendenhall or Megatron?

10-team league - QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, no flex - 0.5 ppr, picking 4th, assume the following will not be kept:
R Moss, Mathews (rookie), Grant, P Thomas, Romo, and either Fitzgerald or Brees.
Also assume pick #1 will not be a RB and zero chance of Mendenhall making it past the Steeler fan at #3.I keep Mendenhall. 4th pick you may be able to get Calvins Johnson anyway. With 20 total keepers, there will be other strong WRs that you didn't list.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

Burleson missed three games last year and ONLY played in one game in 2008. I guess you can't keep "getting injured" if you suffer a season-ending injury in week one.

I know CJ missed some games last year and played in a few hurt (6?), but he played in all 16 in 2008... so he's still more reliable than Burleson :wink:

But I agree, Burleson has good hands and will be a nice complement to CJ.

My point is that if I'm going to go with an injury risk I'd rather get him in round 10 than round 4.

[donny5k]

Keeper #1 = MJD. Keeper #2: Mendenhall or Megatron?

10-team league - QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, no flex - 0.5 ppr, picking 4th, assume the following will not be kept:
R Moss, Mathews (rookie), Grant, P Thomas, Romo, and either Fitzgerald or Brees.
Also assume pick #1 will not be a RB and zero chance of Mendenhall making it past the Steeler fan at #3.

Megatron by a mile in my opinion. Because of .5 PPR.

[donny5k]

Got 2nd pick in a .5 PPR flex league. Assume CJ2K is gone. AP, Rice or MJD? What would you do? Hopefully Favre will decide by then.

[MountainHawk]

I think I'm going to see if I can move McCoy for a first couple of rounds type pick, and keep Brees/Moss and either Witten or Crabtree
Got the 21st pick for McCoy, so now I'll pick at 7, 14, 21, and 27 and keep Brees, Moss, and Crabtree (or Harvin, but probably not).

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Can you trade crabtree?

[MountainHawk]

Can you trade crabtree?
Doubtful, but I'll try.

[Louis Rich]

My 2010 squad.

QB: Phillip Rivers,
WR: Brandon Marshall, MSW, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, A Gonzo
RB Beanie Wells (I'm thinking he will have a good year), Michael Bush, Jerome Harrison. I think rbs will be on running teams this year.
TE Gresham
K Kaeding
DE Mathis Maybin
LB Urlacher
S/CB Revis, Delmas, McKelvin Rogers-Crom
DEF Cincy


I'm not sure how defensive players work but I think I got some good ones. I could possibly find a some good RBs later but the ones I have are good enough right?

[MooBeay]

My 2010 squad.

QB: Phillip Rivers,
WR: Brandon Marshall, MSW, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, A Gonzo
RB Beanie Wells (I'm thinking he will have a good year), Michael Bush, Jerome Harrison. I think rbs will be on running teams this year.
TE Gresham
K Kaeding
DE Mathis Maybin
LB Urlacher
S/CB Revis, Delmas, McKelvin Rogers-Crom
DEF Cincy


I'm not sure how defensive players work but I think I got some good ones. I could possibly find a some good RBs later but the ones I have are good enough right?

So is this a 30 team league? And what pick did you have? Who were your first two rounders?

[dlwktb]

Seriously. Was Rivers your first rounder?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

ick.

[Louis Rich]

I'm afraid to say. Yes Rivers then Marshall were my first two picks. I sucked at WR last year so I made sure I had 3 high production WRs. I wanted to get Shon Greene but I had to settle for Beanie Wells.

[donny5k]

I'm afraid to say. Yes Rivers then Marshall were my first two picks. I sucked at WR last year so I made sure I had 3 high production WRs. I wanted to get Shon Greene but I had to settle for Beanie Wells.

Hopefully this league isn't for a lot of money...

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Hopefully there's openings in this league for next year.

[Louis Rich]

Hopefully this league isn't for a lot of money...
I'll beat them anyway. Last year my team was crap and I went 9-1. I'll add Big Ben later and trade for a better fantasy RB.

[Mark it 8, Dude]

TE Gresham
:-?

[dlwktb]

:-?

Bengals, played for Oklahoma last year.

Or were you just questioning the pick?

[BallaActuary]

My 2010 squad.

QB: Phillip Rivers,
WR: Brandon Marshall, MSW, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, A Gonzo
RB Beanie Wells (I'm thinking he will have a good year), Michael Bush, Jerome Harrison. I think rbs will be on running teams this year.
TE Gresham
K Kaeding
DE Mathis Maybin
LB Urlacher
S/CB Revis, Delmas, McKelvin Rogers-Crom
DEF Cincy


I'm not sure how defensive players work but I think I got some good ones. I could possibly find a some good RBs later but the ones I have are good enough right?

blahness + 1

[Mark it 8, Dude]

Or were you just questioning the pick?
That one. The highest I've seen him ranked on any list is 19th, and that's the highest. Seems like quite a reach.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

That one. The highest I've seen him ranked on any list is 19th, and that's the highest. Seems like quite a reach.

welcome to the rest of the team, then

[donny5k]

Even Marshall is only not a reach if he picked later in the second round, which would make Rivers more of a reach. He's the 7th best QB right now, with the holdouts.

[Big Pete]

Mock draft over the weekend out of the #1 slot - Yahoo standard 12-team, QB,WR,WR,WR,RB,RB,TE,K,DEF no flex:

1. Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
2. Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)
3. Greg Jennings (GB - WR)
4. Antonio Gates (SD - TE)
5. Michael Crabtree (SF - WR)
6. Justin Forsett (Sea - RB)
7. Felix Jones (Dal - RB)
8. Carson Palmer (Cin - QB)
9. Terrell Owens (Cin - WR)
10. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)
11. Anthony Gonzalez (Ind - WR)
12. Chester Taylor (Chi - RB)
13. Darren McFadden (Oak - RB)
14. Dexter McCluster (KC - WR,RB)
15. Chicago (Chi - DEF)

I don't like kickers and won't push their ADP up by drafting one unless forced to.

Entire draft here:
Round 1
(1) Big - Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
(2) Kevin Webster - Adrian Peterson (Min - RB)
(3) mike - Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac - RB)
(4) Char - Michael Turner (Atl - RB)
(5) Damoose - Ray Rice (Bal - RB)
(6) kano7011 - Andre Johnson (Hou - WR)
(7) JD - Frank Gore (SF - RB)
(8) jonathan - Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)
(9) Erik - Shonn Greene (NYJ - RB)
(10) frank - Randy Moss (NE - WR)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB)
(12) Kenric - DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)


Round 2
(1) Kenric - Steven Jackson (StL - RB)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR)
(3) frank - Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB)
(4) Erik - Miles Austin (Dal - WR)
(5) jonathan - Drew Brees (NO - QB)
(6) JD - Ryan Grant (GB - RB)
(7) kano7011 - Joseph Addai (Ind - RB)
(8) Damoose - Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)
(9) Char - Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)
(10) mike - Peyton Manning (Ind - QB)
(11) Kevin Webster - Tony Romo (Dal - QB)
(12) Big - Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)


Round 3
(1) Big - Greg Jennings (GB - WR)
(2) Kevin Webster - Sidney Rice (Min - WR)
(3) mike - Ronnie Brown (Mia - RB)
(4) Char - Roddy White (Atl - WR)
(5) Damoose - Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR)
(6) kano7011 - DeSean Jackson (Phi - WR)
(7) JD - Matt Schaub (Hou - QB)
(8) jonathan - LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB)
(9) Erik - Tom Brady (NE - QB)
(10) frank - Cedric Benson (Cin - RB)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Philip Rivers (SD - QB)
(12) Kenric - Marques Colston (NO - WR)


Round 4
(1) Kenric - Steve Smith (Car - WR)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Beanie Wells (Ari - RB)
(3) frank - Pierre Thomas (NO - RB)
(4) Erik - Hakeem Nicks (NYG - WR)
(5) jonathan - Anquan Boldin (Bal - WR)
(6) JD - Dallas Clark (Ind - TE)
(7) kano7011 - Knowshon Moreno (Den - RB)
(8) Damoose - Matt Forte (Chi - RB)
(9) Char - Jahvid Best (Det - RB)
(10) mike - Steve Smith (NYG - WR)
(11) Kevin Webster - Vernon Davis (SF - TE)
(12) Big - Antonio Gates (SD - TE)


Round 5
(1) Big - Michael Crabtree (SF - WR)
(2) Kevin Webster - Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR)
(3) mike - Vincent Jackson (SD - WR)
(4) Char - Jermichael Finley (GB - TE)
(5) Damoose - Mike Sims-Walker (Jac - WR)
(6) kano7011 - Brett Favre (Min - QB)
(7) JD - Hines Ward (Pit - WR)
(8) jonathan - Jason Witten (Dal - TE)
(9) Erik - Brandon Jacobs (NYG - RB)
(10) frank - Percy Harvin (Min - WR)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Jonathan Stewart (Car - RB)
(12) Kenric - Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR)


Round 6
(1) Kenric - Jay Cutler (Chi - QB)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Jeremy Maclin (Phi - WR)
(3) frank - Donald Driver (GB - WR)
(4) Erik - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea - WR)
(5) jonathan - Santana Moss (Was - WR)
(6) JD - Derrick Mason (Bal - WR)
(7) kano7011 - Wes Welker (NE - WR)
(8) Damoose - Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)
(9) Char - Kevin Kolb (Phi - QB)
(10) mike - Minnesota (Min - DEF)
(11) Kevin Webster - New York (NYJ - DEF)
(12) Big - Justin Forsett (Sea - RB)


Round 7
(1) Big - Felix Jones (Dal - RB)
(2) Kevin Webster - Pierre Garcon (Ind - WR)
(3) mike - Reggie Bush (NO - RB)
(4) Char - Mike Wallace (Pit - WR)
(5) Damoose - Joe Flacco (Bal - QB)
(6) kano7011 - Brent Celek (Phi - TE)
(7) JD - Dez Bryant (Dal - WR)
(8) jonathan - Devin Hester (Chi - WR)
(9) Erik - Jerome Harrison (Cle - RB)
(10) frank - Tony Gonzalez (Atl - TE)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Robert Meachem (NO - WR)
(12) Kenric - Owen Daniels (Hou - TE)


Round 8
(1) Kenric - Green Bay (GB - DEF)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Eddie Royal (Den - WR)
(3) frank - Braylon Edwards (NYJ - WR)
(4) Erik - Kellen Winslow (TB - TE)
(5) jonathan - Ricky Williams (Mia - RB)
(6) JD - Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
(7) kano7011 - Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
(8) Damoose - Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG - RB)
(9) Char - Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
(10) mike - Devin Aromashodu (Chi - WR)
(11) Kevin Webster - Thomas Jones (KC - RB)
(12) Big - Carson Palmer (Cin - QB)


Round 9
(1) Big - Terrell Owens (Cin - WR)
(2) Kevin Webster - Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
(3) mike - Visanthe Shiancoe (Min - TE)
(4) Char - Stephen Gostkowski (NE - K)
(5) Damoose - Zach Miller (Oak - TE)
(6) kano7011 - Garrett Hartley (NO - K)
(7) JD - Nate Kaeding (SD - K)
(8) jonathan - Donovan McNabb (Was - QB)
(9) Erik - Carnell Williams (TB - RB)
(10) frank - Michael Bush (Oak - RB)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Ben Tate (Hou - RB)
(12) Kenric - Mason Crosby (GB - K)


Round 10
(1) Kenric - Fred Jackson (Buf - RB)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Steve Breaston (Ari - WR)
(3) frank - San Francisco (SF - DEF)
(4) Erik - Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)
(5) jonathan - Roy Williams (Dal - WR)
(6) JD - C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB)
(7) kano7011 - Marion Barber (Dal - RB)
(8) Damoose - Tim Hightower (Ari - RB)
(9) Char - Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)
(10) mike - Sebastian Janikowski (Oak - K)
(11) Kevin Webster - Ryan Longwell (Min - K)
(12) Big - Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)


Round 11
(1) Big - Anthony Gonzalez (Ind - WR)
(2) Kevin Webster - Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)
(3) mike - Alex Smith (SF - QB)
(4) Char - Montario Hardesty (Cle - RB)
(5) Damoose - Arian Foster (Hou - RB)
(6) kano7011 - Austin Collie (Ind - WR)
(7) JD - Lee Evans (Buf - WR)
(8) jonathan - Cincinnati (Cin - DEF)
(9) Erik - Laurence Maroney (NE - RB)
(10) frank - Rob Bironas (Ten - K)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Steve Slaton (Hou - RB)
(12) Kenric - Matthew Stafford (Det - QB)


Round 12
(1) Kenric - John Carlson (Sea - TE)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Chad Henne (Mia - QB)
(3) frank - Kenny Britt (Ten - WR)
(4) Erik - Darren Sproles (SD - RB)
(5) jonathan - David Akers (Phi - K)
(6) JD - Julian Edelman (NE - WR)
(7) kano7011 - Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ - WR)
(8) Damoose - Johnny Knox (Chi - WR)
(9) Char - Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle - WR)
(10) mike - New Orleans (NO - DEF)
(11) Kevin Webster - Greg Olsen (Chi - TE)
(12) Big - Chester Taylor (Chi - RB)


Round 13
(1) Big - Darren McFadden (Oak - RB)
(2) Kevin Webster - Chris Chambers (KC - WR)
(3) mike - LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ - RB)
(4) Char - Jacoby Jones (Hou - WR)
(5) Damoose - Matt Cassel (KC - QB)
(6) kano7011 - Chris Cooley (Was - TE)
(7) JD - Mark Sanchez (NYJ - QB)
(8) jonathan - Joshua Cribbs (Cle - WR)
(9) Erik - New York (NYG - DEF)
(10) frank - Antonio Bryant (Cin - WR)
(11) mapletiger2008 - Heath Miller (Pit - TE)
(12) Kenric - Kevin Walter (Hou - WR)


Round 14
(1) Kenric - Devin Thomas (Was - WR)
(2) mapletiger2008 - Robbie Gould (Chi - K)
(3) frank - Willis McGahee (Bal - RB)
(4) Erik - Lawrence Tynes (NYG - K)
(5) jonathan - Todd Heap (Bal - TE)
(6) JD - Dustin Keller (NYJ - TE)
(7) kano7011 - Kyle Orton (Den - QB)
(8) Damoose - Dallas (Dal - DEF)
(9) Char - Marcedes Lewis (Jac - TE)
(10) mike - Devery Henderson (NO - WR)
(11) Kevin Webster - Clinton Portis (Was - RB)
(12) Big - Dexter McCluster (KC - WR,RB)


Round 15
(1) Big - Chicago (Chi - DEF)
(2) Kevin Webster - Indianapolis (Ind - DEF)
(3) mike - Josh Scobee (Jac - K)
(4) Char - Rian Lindell (Buf - K)
(5) Damoose - John Kasay (Car - K)
(6) kano7011 - Miami (Mia - DEF)
(7) JD - Ryan Succop (KC - K)
(8) jonathan - Donald Brown (Ind - RB)
(9) Erik - Arrelious Benn (TB - WR)
(10) frank - Matt Leinart (Ari - QB)
(11) mapletiger2008 - San Diego (SD - DEF)
(12) Kenric - Matt Prater (Den - K)

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I take Brady in the 3rd, love getting Gates, and CJ/Charles in a 12 team is filthy. Try to trade Felix and Crabtree for a real WR.

[BallaActuary]

I take Brady in the 3rd, love getting Gates, and CJ/Charles in a 12 team is filthy. Try to trade Felix and Crabtree for a real WR.

It was just a mock :wink:

I prefer Schaub over Brady in the 3rd.

I can't help but look at Brady's schedule and think it has to be one of the worst vs. the pass this year (especially if Revis ends his holdout).

RMoss is in a contract year so I think he has motivation to not take plays off. Welker's healthy is a big concern, so if he's not able to play 100% for a while, teams will be able to double Moss. They don't have a legitimate WR2 to take the pressure off Moss besides Welker.

[JustASix]

I crushed a 10 team mock out of the 6 hole on Yahoo. I didn't save the email with the whole thing but here are the highlights.

I don't remember the order but here is the team.

QB: Brady
RB: McCoy, Stewart, FJones, JForsett, MBarber
WR: AJohnson, Wayne, Megatron, TOwens, ?
TE: Carlson

There were some serious idiots in this draft.

[donny5k]

Yeah, yahoo mocks are terrible. Pretty much everyone takes 2 tight ends by round 8.

[MooBeay]

I crushed a 10 team mock out of the 6 hole on Yahoo. I didn't save the email with the whole thing but here are the highlights.

I don't remember the order but here is the team.

QB: Brady
RB: McCoy, Stewart, FJones, JForsett, MBarber
WR: AJohnson, Wayne, Megatron, TOwens, ?
TE: Carlson

There were some serious idiots in this draft.

this team doesn't look good to me. however, i don't play in PPR or 3 WR leagues.

[donny5k]

this team doesn't look good to me. however, i don't play in PPR or 3 WR leagues.

He got 3 of the top 6 WRs and still got some decent running backs (5 of the top ~35 I think, with McCoy, Stewart and F.Jones all being RB2 candidates on most teams) and a top-6 QB. That is a sick team. I'm assuming the format is 3 WR rather than a flex position. He basically got a first rounder (AJ), 2 second rounders(Wayne, CJ), a late 3rd - early 4th rounder (Brady) , and 3 fourth - 5th rounders (McCoy, Stewart, Jones) in terms of value. Forsett and Barber are solid RB3 types too.
3 of those 5 RBs will be very startable week to week. It's hard to tell which ones at this point but that's why you get depth if you don't get a top 4 RB.

[Big Pete]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-49erscamp

"The 49ers also will have a new starter at center after Eric Heitmann(notes) broke his left leg during practice Monday morning. Heitmann is expected to miss up to two months."

Ouch. How much does this impact Frank Gore's fantasy value?

[MooBeay]

He got 3 of the top 6 WRs and still got some decent running backs (5 of the top ~35 I think, with McCoy, Stewart and F.Jones all being RB2 candidates on most teams) and a top-6 QB. That is a sick team. I'm assuming the format is 3 WR rather than a flex position. He basically got a first rounder (AJ), 2 second rounders(Wayne, CJ), a late 3rd - early 4th rounder (Brady) , and 3 fourth - 5th rounders (McCoy, Stewart, Jones) in terms of value. Forsett and Barber are solid RB3 types too.
3 of those 5 RBs will be very startable week to week. It's hard to tell which ones at this point but that's why you get depth if you don't get a top 4 RB.

its a 10 team league...i wouldn't be excited about having tier 2 and 3 RBs.
i like brady and two of the WRs...no need for three.

and i like CJ but he was the 20th WR last year.

[3rookie]

its a 10 team league...i wouldn't be excited about having tier 2 and 3 RBs.
i like brady and two of the WRs...no need for three.

and i like CJ but he was the 20th WR last year.It's not spectacular, but I like it. RBs are obviously not ideal, but having 5 tier 2-3 RBs makes it likely that he ultimately has at least one tier 1 RB. You can only draft so many tier 1 players.

[MooBeay]

It's not spectacular, but I like it. RBs are obviously not ideal, but having 5 tier 2-3 RBs makes it likely that he ultimately has at least one tier 1 RB. You can only draft so many tier 1 players.

i'd rather have one tier 1 RB and 4 tier 2-3...which was likely doable in that draft and still have 2 stud WRs.

[Big Pete]

i'd rather have one tier 1 RB and 4 tier 2-3...which was likely doable in that draft and still have 2 stud WRs.

With only two of the top-25 picks, to have gotten those three WRs, the rest of the drafters must have been too focused on RBs and QBs for there to have been solid value picking RB at #15 or #26. And I can't fault a guy for taking AJ at #6.

I'm not saying it's my favorite setup for a team, but getting three top-quality WRs isn't a place where that draft went off the tracks.

[MooBeay]

With only two of the top-25 picks, to have gotten those three WRs, the rest of the drafters must have been too focused on RBs and QBs for there to have been solid value picking RB at #15 or #26. And I can't fault a guy for taking AJ at #6.

I'm not saying it's my favorite setup for a team, but getting three top-quality WRs isn't a place where that draft went off the tracks.

with 2 of top 25 sounds dramatic compared to 3 of top 26. weren't focused enough for brady to come off the board. and i said i didn't mind the AJ pick...i wouldn't do it, but don't mind it.

[Big Pete]

with 2 of top 25 sounds dramatic compared to 3 of top 26. weren't focused enough for brady to come off the board. and i said i didn't mind the AJ pick...i wouldn't do it, but don't mind it.

So if Calvin Johnson is still around at pick 26, what top tier RBs are also there? How many RBs were probably off the board already? At least 15, I'm guessing.

Or what top-tier RB would you have expected to be available at #15?

I don't consider Brady a top-5 QB. 15 RBs, 5 WRs, and 5 QBs in the top 25 could have been taken. Or maybe it was more like 17/5/3. The league certainly wasn't paying attention to WRs as much as 'normal' for this year.

I don't think I've seen Calvin ranked outside of the top-20 this year, and since he was available at #26, I'm guessing the best RB alternative there was somebody like Jahvid Best, with an outside chance of Pierre Thomas.

[JustASix]

i'd rather have one tier 1 RB and 4 tier 2-3...which was likely doable in that draft and still have 2 stud WRs.
I dont' disagree with this except that I think there are only 4 tier 1 RB and if you dont' draft in the top 4 you don't get one.

[MooBeay]

So if Calvin Johnson is still around at pick 26, what top tier RBs are also there? How many RBs were probably off the board already? At least 15, I'm guessing.

Or what top-tier RB would you have expected to be available at #15?

I don't consider Brady a top-5 QB. 15 RBs, 5 WRs, and 5 QBs in the top 25 could have been taken. Or maybe it was more like 17/5/3. The league certainly wasn't paying attention to WRs as much as 'normal' for this year.

I don't think I've seen Calvin ranked outside of the top-20 this year, and since he was available at #26, I'm guessing the best RB alternative there was somebody like Jahvid Best, with an outside chance of Pierre Thomas.

top 20 overall for CJ?
my point was i woudln;t refer to that team in a 10 team league as CRUSHING the draft.

[MooBeay]

I dont' disagree with this except that I think there are only 4 tier 1 RB and if you dont' draft in the top 4 you don't get one.

which 4?
and this may be the case, but i haven't done my usual point difference calc for this season yet. however, in the past i find WR to be the least important position in FF.

of course unless we are talking about a league that starts 3 no matter what and PPR. then it would change.

[MooBeay]

So if Calvin Johnson is still around at pick 26, what top tier RBs are also there? How many RBs were probably off the board already? At least 15, I'm guessing.

Or what top-tier RB would you have expected to be available at #15?

I don't consider Brady a top-5 QB. 15 RBs, 5 WRs, and 5 QBs in the top 25 could have been taken. Or maybe it was more like 17/5/3. The league certainly wasn't paying attention to WRs as much as 'normal' for this year.

I don't think I've seen Calvin ranked outside of the top-20 this year, and since he was available at #26, I'm guessing the best RB alternative there was somebody like Jahvid Best, with an outside chance of Pierre Thomas.

but its close right?

[donny5k]

top 20 overall for CJ?
my point was i woudln;t refer to that team in a 10 team league as CRUSHING the draft.

If I'm sitting at 26 and Calvin Johnson is there I take him even if I have 2 WRs. You are likely deciding between Calvin Johnson and the 16th RB (Benson?). Too much value to pass up even if you lack RB's. Trade would be an option in a real draft. Going WR-WR is not a bad strategy for the first 2 rounds. Just like going 3 RB's in the first 4 rounds isn't bad inherently even in a start only 2 RB league.

[BallaActuary]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-49erscamp

"The 49ers also will have a new starter at center after Eric Heitmann(notes) broke his left leg during practice Monday morning. Heitmann is expected to miss up to two months."

Ouch. How much does this impact Frank Gore's fantasy value?

I was really high on Gore this year, but losing a center is devastating (see Eagles in week 17 vs. Dallas and playoff game vs. Dallas last year).

The only somewhat positive news is that it happened now and they have roughly a month to try to gel the new center/OL.

[donny5k]

In a standard league, Andre Johnson is almost always the best available player at #6 this year. Frank Gore has his own mini tier 1.5 and there's the clear top 4 RBs (CJ,AP,MJD,RR). And the second round RBs seem sketchy this year. I don't mind going Wayne over Shonn Greene or Mendenhall and then grab more RBs later.

[BallaActuary]

In a standard league, Andre Johnson is almost always the best available player at #6 this year. Frank Gore has his own mini tier 1.5 and there's the clear top 4 RBs (CJ,AP,MJD,RR). And the second round RBs seem sketchy this year. I don't mind going Wayne over Shonn Greene or Mendenhall and then grab more RBs later.

Eh, I would rather have Michael Turner at #6. Prior to the SF center getting hurt, Gore was going to be as good as the top 4 RBs this year. AJ is a manimal, but I suspect his numbers dip slightly now that he has his fat new contract.

[MooBeay]

If I'm sitting at 26 and Calvin Johnson is there I take him even if I have 2 WRs. You are likely deciding between Calvin Johnson and the 16th RB (Benson?). Too much value to pass up even if you lack RB's. Trade would be an option in a real draft. Going WR-WR is not a bad strategy for the first 2 rounds. Just like going 3 RB's in the first 4 rounds isn't bad inherently even in a start only 2 RB league.

i try not to draft guys in the first 4 rounds that won't play for me each week.
and benson had 1 more TD and 400 more yards than CJ last year.

[rekrap]

i try not to draft guys in the first 4 rounds that won't play for me each week.
and benson had 1 more TD and 400 more yards than CJ last year.

He starts 3 WR, tho, plus Flex. only 2 RB

[MooBeay]

He starts 3 WR, tho, plus Flex. only 2 RB

didn't see that.

[MooBeay]

lol Where did Addai and Grant finish in rushing TDs in 2008? Do you just skip years so you can fail miserably at trying to make a point?

When DeWill led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2008, was Drew Brees or Peyton Manning throwing for the Panthers?

no he was hurt. you said being a starting RB for a stud QB was a bad thing. but when backs are healthy for manning they put up huge numbers.

you just throw out ideas with no backing and then when called out you try and insult. its sad really.

you have one example and its a golden rule eventhough i gave you many examples to prove the opposite. nice work.

[MooBeay]

This is what moo does. He picks one example out of 20 that contradicts a post you make and completely ignores everything else. I mentioned Houston and he ignores it. I could have said New Orleans and he would have ignored it.

How about Ryan Grant in 2008? What was his excuse?

One example. You are the one who gave one example with DeWill.
I gave Edge, Addai...should we go on. How was the passing attack in San Diego the last few years? Seems like LDT put up points. Hmmm...ADP had 18 TDs and led the league last year right? How about the passing game for Faulks huge years?

but goodness that DeWill year with 18 sure proves your point.

[MooBeay]

lol Where did Addai and Grant finish in rushing TDs in 2008? Do you just skip years so you can fail miserably at trying to make a point?

When DeWill led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2008, was Drew Brees or Peyton Manning throwing for the Panthers?

you are hilarious...you asked when was addai relevant...i answered. then you complain.
you mention GB and their 2009 stats...i give you Grant for THAT year and you want me to reference another years stats to help you out.

[Big Pete]

but its close right?

Close, but that doesn't impact the validity of the statement that Cal J being available at #26 implies there was some extra focus - relative to 'normal' drafts - on the other two positions that are generally drafted in the first 3 rounds, and thus not picking Cal J there would have likely resulted in significantly less expected value of the pick.

[Big Pete]

I was really high on Gore this year, but losing a center is devastating (see Eagles in week 17 vs. Dallas and playoff game vs. Dallas last year).

The only somewhat positive news is that it happened now and they have roughly a month to try to gel the new center/OL.

This really makes me hate the possiblity of drafting after #6 in Round 1.

[BallaActuary]

no he was hurt. you said being a starting RB for a stud QB was a bad thing. but when backs are healthy for manning they put up huge numbers.

you just throw out ideas with no backing and then when called out you try and insult. its sad really.

you have one example and its a golden rule eventhough i gave you many examples to prove the opposite. nice work.

lol ok. I never said being a starting RB for a stud QB was a bad thing. I said you don't need a top QB to be a top fantasy RB. Take a minute to read my posts next time.

I don't have one example. I have many. Was Ryan Grant hurt in 2008? Where were your Houston RBs examples from 2009?

Again, I say:
lol Where did Addai and Grant finish in rushing TDs in 2008?

You completely ignore how badly Grant sucked in 2008. You completely ignore the fact that the league's top passing team in 2009 had no relevant fantasy RBs. That's all do. Pick one example and when someone is right, you pretend you didn't read it. Don't bother posting if that's what you think people want to read.

[MooBeay]

"Like I said about ADP, the BEST QBs are so efficient passing, there efficiency starts becoming a negative for RBs. When was the last time Addai was relevant in the FF running game?"

I forgot that in balla world that a negative for RBs is a good thing.
And there is your exact question about addai. he was relevant last year like i said as a RRBC. In 2008 he was injured, so that has no effect on the discussion of running with a good QB. Unless you had no flow to your argument and were just rambling about RBs. And I gave the 2007 numbers as top 5.

In your ramblings you listed Grant/GB's 2009 numbers, but Grant was good last year...now you want me to argue 2009 numbers with 2008 stats. Doesn't really make sense.

As for Houston I will use your logic and ask about 2008...lets see steve slaton was 6th in fantasy football RBs. Should we ignore that.

Like I was saying your analysis of having a great/stud QB being a bad thing for RBs is off.

[MooBeay]

lol ok. I never said being a starting RB for a stud QB was a bad thing. I said you don't need a top QB to be a top fantasy RB. Take a minute to read my posts next time.

I don't have one example. I have many. Was Ryan Grant hurt in 2008? Where were your Houston RBs examples from 2009?

Again, I say:
lol Where did Addai and Grant finish in rushing TDs in 2008?

You completely ignore how badly Grant sucked in 2008. You completely ignore the fact that the league's top passing team in 2009 had no relevant fantasy RBs. That's all do. Pick one example and when someone is right, you pretend you didn't read it. Don't bother posting if that's what you think people want to read.

I posted stats that show tier one fantasy backs can have superstar QBs...if people don't want to read that then they don't have to. You post outlandish claims then ignore them later when they prove to be wrong. ie 6 foot QBs and Duke hoops.

[JustASix]

We need a couple more teams in the AOFF. A free keeper league that uses the AO for drafting and Yahoo for season play. We are drafting starting Monday. We are starting over this year so you would be on equal ground with everyone. The design is intended to be simple and encourage active owners. It is the same set up as the baseball league here if you are familiar with that.

Post in this link if you want a spot. I will PM you with the next steps.
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=198373

See here for rules. Scoring is standard. 2RB, 3WR. Simple keeper setup.
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1655479&postcount=1

[BallaActuary]

Coffee looked fabulous in training camp last year. As in 'better than Gore' kinda fab. He started 3 games last year... one against the Minnesota top 3 rush D, one against St Louis (in which 9ers scored, what, 3 defensive TDs) and another against Atl which SanFran lost 45-10. Admittedly, he looked a little lost at times from what I saw (natural for a rook), but he's got more legs than Gore. I've never understood why people fellate Gore as a FF stud when he proves people wrong year after year after year - since '06. He's a horrible value at the position he's generally drafted.



I wonder how many games Coffee will start this year lol

[BallaActuary]

I posted stats that show tier one fantasy backs can have superstar QBs...if people don't want to read that then they don't have to. You post outlandish claims then ignore them later when they prove to be wrong. ie 6 foot QBs and Duke hoops.

I never said tier one RBs CAN'T have superstar QBs. You continue to argue against a point I never made. Like I said, if you want to do that, do us a favor and post elsewhere. I don't know if you are doing a great job at trolling or truly have some kind of comprehension deficiency.

I had some fun with my QB claim and got the appropriate responses I wanted.

I was wrong about Duke. Then again, I'm not surprised you failed to see my signature. It's a very common theme with you.

People come to the fantasy football threads to get advice and insight. I've proven to give that over the past several years. Your posts offer nothing of value and waste everyone's time including your own.

[Force of Interest]

I wonder how many games Coffee will start this year lol

:rofl:

I was about to find the prior posts of people claiming glen coffee was as good if not better than gore.

What a loser.

[JustASix]

We need a couple more teams in the AOFF. A free keeper league that uses the AO for drafting and Yahoo for season play. We are drafting starting Monday. We are starting over this year so you would be on equal ground with everyone. The design is intended to be simple and encourage active owners. It is the same set up as the baseball league here if you are familiar with that.

Post in this link if you want a spot. I will PM you with the next steps.
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=198373

See here for rules. Scoring is standard. 2RB, 3WR. Simple keeper setup.
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1655479&postcount=1
We're still looking for 1 more owner. We did the draft order today and the new owner will get the second overall pick in a keeper league.

[Mark it 8, Dude]

Etiquette question:

Fred Jackson just got hurt and is out for at least the rest of preseason. Marshawn Lynch also hurt his ankle in the game. If a person finagled a trade for C.J. Spiller the next day and the Spiller owner wasn't aware of the injuries to the other two RBs, is that poor FF etiquette or is that the nature of the game?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Every time I'm about to make a trade I check statuses and news on all players involved. Just sayin'

[BallaActuary]

:rofl:

I was about to find the prior posts of people claiming glen coffee was as good if not better than gore.

What a loser.

Actually, I read he is deeply religious and is going to pursue priesthood. I wouldn't go as far as to call him a "loser"

It seems like he would recognize how much extra good he could do for the world by sticking around to collect his >$1 million salary and then follow his true calling in a few years.

[Force of Interest]

Actually, I read he is deeply religious and is going to pursue priesthood. I wouldn't go as far as to call him a "loser"

It seems like he would recognize how much extra good he could do for the world by sticking around to collect his >$1 million salary and then follow his true calling in a few years.
haven't read that anywhere. Just saw quotes of him saying his "heart isn't in it."
Which to means couldn't handle the pressure of the NFL, a la Shawn Andrews.

[BallaActuary]

haven't read that anywhere. Just saw quotes of him saying his "heart isn't in it."
Which to means couldn't handle the pressure of the NFL, a la Shawn Andrews.

Coffee says he won't reconsider: "I've told Christ it's time to go"

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on August 14, 2010 12:55 PM ET

When Brett Favre told his teammates he was retiring a few weeks back, a slew of text messages and calls from the Vikings caused him to reconsider.

49ers running back Glen Coffee has heard the same pleas since he shockingly retired, but sounds unmoved. In an interview with Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee, Coffee talks about his decision to walk away.

"Actually when I look back I feel I never should have entered the draft in the first place," Coffee said. "Football was no longer my dream. I found Christ in college. It changed my views on everything. But I still was a football player because it was expected of me, it was something I did all my life. I was basically wasting the [49ers'] time."
Coffee will re-enroll at Alabama to get his degree, then intends to pursue a master's degree. He said he forced football, but that Christ told him to walk away a long time ago. He finally listened and won't look back.

"No, man. I've already told Christ it's time to go. I've already rung the bell. That's not going to happen."

Coffee made a difficult decision Friday, but it doesn't sound like he'll vacillate like Favre. We wish him all the best, and hope he finds what he's looking for in his next stage of life.

[JustASix]

I feel like there are some good FFL team names resulting from this situation. Any ideas?

[Force of Interest]

Coffee says he won't reconsider: "I've told Christ it's time to go"

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on August 14, 2010 12:55 PM ET

When Brett Favre told his teammates he was retiring a few weeks back, a slew of text messages and calls from the Vikings caused him to reconsider.

49ers running back Glen Coffee has heard the same pleas since he shockingly retired, but sounds unmoved. In an interview with Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee, Coffee talks about his decision to walk away.

"Actually when I look back I feel I never should have entered the draft in the first place," Coffee said. "Football was no longer my dream. I found Christ in college. It changed my views on everything. But I still was a football player because it was expected of me, it was something I did all my life. I was basically wasting the [49ers'] time."
Coffee will re-enroll at Alabama to get his degree, then intends to pursue a master's degree. He said he forced football, but that Christ told him to walk away a long time ago. He finally listened and won't look back.

"No, man. I've already told Christ it's time to go. I've already rung the bell. That's not going to happen."

Coffee made a difficult decision Friday, but it doesn't sound like he'll vacillate like Favre. We wish him all the best, and hope he finds what he's looking for in his next stage of life.
He's right, never shoulda entered the draft.

Well best of luck to him. If his heart's not in it then he coulda really gotten hurt badly.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Auction draft, don't have the prices... here's the starters (weird league setup)

Player Opp. Weather Bye Avg Proj Own % Start % Status
Manning, Peyton QB IND @HOU
Sun 1:00pm 7 0.0 383.0 99 83
McNabb, Donovan QB WAS DAL
Sun 8:20pm 9 0.0 292.0 98 69
McFadden, Darren RB OAK @TEN
Sun 1:00pm 10 0.0 106.0 55 9
Mendenhall, Rashard RB PIT ATL
Sun 1:00pm 5 0.0 189.0 99 79
Williams, Ricky RB MIA @BUF
Sun 1:00pm 5 0.0 125.0 97 76
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC SD
Mon 10:15pm 4 0.0 138.0 87 38
Breaston, Steve WR ARI @STL
Sun 4:15pm 6 0.0 110.0 83 22
Smith, Steve WR NYG CAR
Sun 1:00pm 8 0.0 142.0 99 75
Wayne, Reggie WR IND @HOU
Sun 1:00pm 7 0.0 178.0 99 76
Gates, Antonio TE SD @KC Dome
Mon 10:15pm 10 0.0 149.0 100 88
Gostkowski, Stephen K NE CIN
Sun 1:00pm 5 0.0 131.0 98 90
Steelers DST ATL
Sun 1:00pm 5 0.0 256.0 94 70

Reserves (You have to have X of every position at all times in reserves)

Garrard, David QB JAC DEN
Sun 1:00pm 9 0.0 229.0 69 14
Sproles, Darren RB SD @KC Dome
Mon 10:15pm 10 0.0 106.0 82 19
Ward, Derrick RB TB CLE
Sun 1:00pm 4 0.0 79.0 32 3
Henderson, Devery WR NO MIN Dome
Thu 8:30pm 10 0.0 78.0 59 15
Williams, Mike WR TB CLE
Sun 1:00pm 4 0.0 84.0 8 1
Davis, Fred TE WAS DAL
Sun 8:20pm 9 0.0 59.0 56 39
Succop, Ryan K KC SD
Mon 10:15pm 4 0.0 108.0 8 2
Browns DST @TB Dome
Sun 1:00pm 8 0.0 121.5 15 8

[3rookie]

Smells like a 10-team league. Still pretty good.

[Doc Holiday]

I kept AP round 1, MJD round 2, and CJ in round 4. Picked CJ in round 4 over Benson in round 8 as a keeper. The reasoning: Even though I believe Benson will be good, if I already have 2 great RBs and the possiblity to start another RB/WR in the flex spot. If one of my lower round RBs picks does well, and my other 3 RBs are doing well, then that 4th RB wont start, but I have to start 2 WRs.

[Get Busy Livin']

Who's getting the better end of this trade, given standard scoring rules and not knowing any bench players:

Team A gets: Tony Romo, Clinton Portis
Team B gets: Eli Manning, Shonn Greene

[BallaActuary]

Who's getting the better end of this trade, given standard scoring rules and not knowing any bench players:

Team A gets: Tony Romo, Clinton Portis
Team B gets: Eli Manning, Shonn Greene

I'm not very high on Greene this year, so I'd probably prefer Team A

[Get Busy Livin']

Why are you not high on Greene?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Who's getting the better end of this trade, given standard scoring rules and not knowing any bench players:

Team A gets: Tony Romo, Clinton Portis
Team B gets: Eli Manning, Shonn Greene

Very close, probably B. Portis is in a weird situation.

[Get Busy Livin']

Full disclosure time. I'm team B, considering offering Romo and Portis for Greene and Manning. There's a good chance the other guy would accept. I'm concerned about Romo's production this year -- I had been ultra-high on him, but the Cowboys offensive line woes are making me change my mind. I also have Forsett, so I'd still have a 3rd RB if needed.

What it all comes down to for me is, is the drop from Romo to Eli worth the pickup from Portis/Forsett to Greene. And I'm not sure, but I'm leaning yes. I think Eli could have a very good year.

[3rookie]

I found out I have the 1st pick in my 14-team league. 1/2 PPR; All TDs = 6 pts; 1 pt/10 rec,10 rush,15 pass yds; start 1,2,2,1,1,1 and flex. Draft is 3 weeks from today.

I'm leaning AP over CJ, but have no clue.
Picks 28/29 - considering solid QB (Romo) or strong WRs (Calvin, Austin, White, Marshall?). Don't like the RB selection here (proj Pierre T, McCoy, Benson, Greene, Wells). Not a huge dropoff w/.5 PPR @ 56/57.
56/57 - Forte, FJones, Forsett, Slaton, Bradshaw, FJax, maybe somebody better slips.Draft is tonight. I'm still trying to control the urge to take AP over CJ. Otherwise, any last minute advice?

- Stay away from Sidney Rice
- Which HOU RB to gamble on
- Take FJones ahead of Barber, etc.

[JustASix]

Don't look to me for help with that urge, I would take AP. With that scoring you have to take the best available QB and WR at 28/29, imo.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I would take Peyton.

[rekrap]

6 pt TD, pt per 15 yd passing? You have to take a QB first overall.

[3rookie]

I would take Peyton.Thanks. I know you like RR.
Don't look to me for help with that urge, I would take AP. With that scoring you have to take the best available QB and WR at 28/29, imo.Ughh
6 pt TD, pt per 15 yd passing? You have to take a QB first overall.1/2 PPR tempers this somewhat, though QBs need to be considered early. Past draft results have shown only 3-5 QBs go in the first 2 rounds, so it is likely one of Romo/Brady/Schaub falls (prob Schaub). If I didn't have a top 5 pick, then I would go QB first.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

RR?

[billyinvegas]

Who's getting the better end of this trade, given standard scoring rules and not knowing any bench players:

Team A gets: Tony Romo, Clinton Portis
Team B gets: Eli Manning, Shonn Greene

Team B and it's not even close.

Washington's backfield is a mess and by starting someone from that team you're ultimately hurting your roster.

Eli Manning imo is going to be a Top 10 QB this year.

You may not like Shonn Greene but his talent/opportunity are significantly better than Portis.

[BallaActuary]

Team B and it's not even close.

Washington's backfield is a mess and by starting someone from that team you're ultimately hurting your roster.

Eli Manning imo is going to be a Top 10 QB this year.

You may not like Shonn Greene but his talent/opportunity are significantly better than Portis.

You are alive?

How is Washington's backfield a mess? I think Portis has no competition for carries.

[billyinvegas]

You are alive?

How is Washington's backfield a mess? I think Portis has no competition for carries.

Sorry. I was banned for a week.

[dlwktb]

I drafted this past weekend, tell me what you think (10 team league, yahoo default except no negative points for Turnovers):

QB(start 1): Flacco, Stafford
WR(start 3): Megatron, D-Bowe, Maclin, TO, Mike Williams
RB(start 2): MJD, Grant, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, Monatario Hardesty
TE: Gates
DEF: San Diego
K: Lawrence Tynes

[JustASix]

I drafted this past weekend, tell me what you think (10 team league, yahoo default except no negative points for Turnovers):

QB: Flacco, Stafford
WR: Megatron, D-Bowe, Maclin, TO, Mike Williams
RB: MJD, Grant, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, Monatario Hardesty
TE: Gates
DEF: San Diego
K: Lawrence Tynes
Not bad at all. I had a very similar team in 10 teamer but I like certain players more than others do (Cutler over Flacco, Stewart over Grant).

QB: Cutler, Roethlisberger
RB: Rice, Stewart, Barber, MBush, Arian Foster
WR: RMoss, DJackson, DBowe, MFloyd, AGonzalez
TE: GAtes
K: Dallas guy
DEF: SF

[dlwktb]

Nice. I think I like yours better in total. QBs were going early in my draft so I decided to wait on them.. but then by the time I picked one people had already started picking back-ups.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Not bad at all. I had a very similar team in 10 teamer but I like certain players more than others do (Cutler over Flacco, Stewart over Grant).

QB: Cutler, Roethlisberger
RB: Rice, Stewart, Barber, MBush, Arian Foster
WR: RMoss, DJackson, DBowe, MFloyd, AGonzalez
TE: GAtes
K: Dallas guy
DEF: SF

JAS, your team is vastly superior to dkllkjlksdjf's team

[dlwktb]

I wouldn't say vastly, but whatever.

[JustASix]

I wouldn't say vastly, but whatever.
I think I have a clear advantage at WR2/3 but otherwise they are comparable. I wish I had TO, I think he will be a very good investment for you.
I have strong RB depth (I have another one too butI don't remember who it is) but we only start 2RB so it may go to waste.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

You have the advantage at every WR position (maybe except WR5). You also have Ben, who crushes his two once he's back.

[JustASix]

Someone laughed at me when I took Ben in the 10 (or 11th, I don't remember). I thought that was ironic.