Let's Talk Fantasy Football 2010!

[dlwktb]

You have the advantage at every WR position (maybe except WR5). You also have Ben, who crushes his two once he's back.

I'd say I have an bit of an advantage at WR 1 and WR 4 too, but that's just me. That's why the play the games.

Clearly his QBs are better than mine. Although in my league there's no penalty for INTs so I think Stafford will be pretty good actually.

[billyinvegas]

Both of those teams should do REALLY well.

[3rookie]

Draft is tonight. I'm still trying to control the urge to take AP over CJ. Otherwise, any last minute advice? (1/2 PPR, high QB scoring)

- Stay away from Sidney Rice
- Which HOU RB to gamble on
- Take FJones ahead of Barber, etc.Took CJ first
Schaub was the only one of the top 6 QBs remaining @28 so we took him
DeSean Jackson went the pick before. He was the last of the 9 WRs we were targeting. Colston and both SSmiths were there. Took Ryan Grant over Charles/McCoy/Moreno/Thomas @29. I hate the pick. Regretted not taking Charles but got scared about sharing time.

[3rookie]

Just got Bradshaw and Bowe @56-57. Passed up RBush, Forsett, Barber

[MountainHawk]

Got #2 pick in my redraft league. That's AP or CJ, right? Is there an argument for MJD over AP?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Rice?

[MountainHawk]

Rice?
Yeah, just looking at Kubiak,and they have it CJ, Mendenhall, Rice, MJD, AP for RB.

Not sure about Mendenhall, so maybe it is Rice, but I don't trust Baltimore's offense.

[Houdini]

Just got Bradshaw and Bowe @56-57. Passed up RBush, Forsett, Barber
:-?

Bradshaw, Bush, and Barber are all comparable (low 30's RBs), and all 5-8 RBs worse than Forsett. I'd say Forsett was not only a better choice here, but a better choice by a pretty significant margin.

[Big Pete]

Got #2 pick in my redraft league. That's AP or CJ, right? Is there an argument for MJD over AP?

I'd take AP over MJD - better teammates, I've heard their line should be better this year, I think Minny runs a little more than last year, no Chester Taylor.

[3rookie]

:-?

Bradshaw, Bush, and Barber are all comparable (low 30's RBs), and all 5-8 RBs worse than Forsett. I'd say Forsett was not only a better choice here, but a better choice by a pretty significant margin.I don't really disagree. I "feel" Bradshaw will be the fantasy back to own in NY.

Got Cadillac and S Moss at 6-7 (84-85). Tony Gonzalez went the pick before me. Argh.

[BallaActuary]

I drafted this past weekend, tell me what you think (10 team league, yahoo default except no negative points for Turnovers):

QB(start 1): Flacco, Stafford
WR(start 3): Megatron, D-Bowe, Maclin, TO, Mike Williams
RB(start 2): MJD, Grant, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, Monatario Hardesty
TE: Gates
DEF: San Diego
K: Lawrence Tynes

If I didn't get Williams in our AOFF, would he have been there by the time my 12th pick rolled around?

I like this team. You will do fine.

[BallaActuary]

Not bad at all. I had a very similar team in 10 teamer but I like certain players more than others do (Cutler over Flacco, Stewart over Grant).

QB: Cutler, Roethlisberger
RB: Rice, Stewart, Barber, MBush, Arian Foster
WR: RMoss, DJackson, DBowe, MFloyd, AGonzalez
TE: GAtes
K: Dallas guy
DEF: SF

You will do fine too.

[JustASix]

Common threads in my drafting so far.
1. Jonathan Stewart - I like him a lot, top 10 RB a lot. Love getting him in the 3rd.
2. Antonio Gates - Top TE were going at 25-30 the past couple years. Now I am getting him around 45-50.
3. Jay Cutler - The top 7 QBs are flying off the board this year, I have been waiting for him in the 6th. Need a solid backup with a high risk starter like this.
4. WR in the second round - Not any particular one here but I definitely prefer the WRs that have been around over the Ryan Grants of the world.

[BallaActuary]

Why the love for Stewart? As long as DWilliams is healthy, Stewart won't get the carries he needs to justify a 3rd round pick, IMO

[dlwktb]

Yeah, I'm not feeling the Stewart love either.. That passing offense will be better than in years past which may mean they don't run the ball 40 times a game with Stewart and Williams.

[MountainHawk]

Why the love for Stewart? As long as DWilliams is healthy, Stewart won't get the carries he needs to justify a 3rd round pick, IMO
He's a top 20 RB, but barely IMO.

[JustASix]

This guy says it better than I can. I just think he is the better back and is on a team that will run a lot. I see 1,200 yards and 10TDs as a very reasonable expectation with a lot of upside from there.

Apparently, not many people have seen Stewart play. I noticed him ranked twentieth among running backs by NFL.com. Please, whoever makes those rankings, watch some clips (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRo4ATyCdB0) of this guy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLWAOfTmggo&feature=related). Dude has destructive power, speed to turn the corner, and insane open-field moves. Playing hurt, he had 100-plus yards in four of his last five games, and is now healthy. Give me "The Daily Show" in the third round over DeAngelo Williams (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=3611) in the late first all day long. Because Stewart is better.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=77&articleid=35884&pg=2

[Get Busy Livin']

Thoughts on these teams? It contains two unidentified AOers. DEF & Kickers not shown. Draft was Sunday night.

Standard scoring, non PPR. Starters (bolded):
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex)


Team 1
QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Tim Hightower
WR: DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (CAR), Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Josh Morgan
TE: Antonio Gates

Team 2 -- only player not at live draft, used a ranking list
QB: Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb
RB: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones
WR: Sidney Rice, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Louis Murphy, James Jones
TE: Chris Cooley

Team 3
QB: Tom Brady, Vince Young
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton
WR: Marques Colston, Hines Ward, Steve Breaston, Jerricho Cotchery, Arrelious Benn
TE: Tony Gonzalez

Team 4
QB: Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton
RB: Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, Chester Taylor
WR: Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Santana Moss, Nate Burleson
TE: Kellen Winslow

Team 5
QB: Tony Romo
RB: Ray Rice, Justin Forsett, Clinton Portis, Donald Brown
WR: Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, Devin Hester, Demaryius Thomas
TE: Heath Miller

Team 6
QB: Eli Manning, Chad Henne
RB: Steven Jackson, Shonn Greene, Felix Jones, Montario Hardesty
WR: Michael Crabtree, Malcom Floyd, Chaz Schilens, Early Doucet
TE: Brent Celek

Team 7
QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Michael Turner, Ahmad Bradshaw, Willis McGahee, Derrick Ward
WR: Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Roy Williams, Chris Chambers
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe

Team 8
QB: Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford
RB: Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas, Jahvid Best, Fred Jackson
WR: Andre Johnson, Johnny Knox, Mario Manningham, Mohamed Massaquoi
TE: Jason Witten

Team 9
QB: Drew Brees
RB: Jonathan Stewart, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Bernard Scott
WR: Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Devin Aromashodu, Jacoby Jones, Golden Tate
TE: Owen Daniels

Team 10
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams
WR: Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Bernard Berrian
TE: Jermichael Finley

Team 11
QB: Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Ricky Williams, Marion Barber, Ben Tate, Anthony Dixon
WR: Randy Moss, Roddy White, Antonio Bryant, Devin Thomas
TE: Dallas Clark

Team 12
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno, Jerome Harrison, Darren Sproles
WR: Steve Smith NYG, Donald Driver, Dez Bryant, Terrell Owens, Devery Henderson
TE: Greg Olsen

Team 13
QB: Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez
RB: Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells, LaDainian Tomlinson
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem, Kevin Walter
TE: Kevin Boss

Team 14
QB: Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassel
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Laurence Maroney
WR: Calvin Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson
TE: Vernon Davis, Zach Miller

[Not Mike]

He's a top 20 RB, but barely IMO.

I think either one is potentially top 5 outside of a time share.

[Not Mike]

:-?

Bradshaw, Bush, and Barber are all comparable (low 30's RBs), and all 5-8 RBs worse than Forsett. I'd say Forsett was not only a better choice here, but a better choice by a pretty significant margin.

I'd actually say Bradshaw is ahead of the group of Bush, Barber, and Forsett. I think Forsett has upside, mind you, but he's in a 3-headed system (so is Barber). Bush will get touches, but Bradshaw is on the cusp of being THE guy in NY. He was getting A LOT of goal line work last year (I had Jacobs, so I felt that pain). Of all those guys, I think he's the one who's a lock to get 15-20 touches per week.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

This guy says it better than I can. I just think he is the better back and is on a team that will run a lot. I see 1,200 yards and 10TDs as a very reasonable expectation with a lot of upside from there.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=77&articleid=35884&pg=2

Derp. Fantasy football <> Real football

[3rookie]

Thoughts on these teams? It contains two unidentified AOers. DEF & Kickers not shown. Draft was Sunday night.

Standard scoring, non PPR. Starters (bolded):
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex)


Team 1
QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Tim Hightower
WR: DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (CAR), Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Josh Morgan
TE: Antonio Gates

Team 2 -- only player not at live draft, used a ranking list
QB: Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb
RB: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones
WR: Sidney Rice, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Louis Murphy, James Jones
TE: Chris Cooley

Team 3
QB: Tom Brady, Vince Young
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton
WR: Marques Colston, Hines Ward, Steve Breaston, Jerricho Cotchery, Arrelious Benn
TE: Tony Gonzalez

Team 4
QB: Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton
RB: Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, Chester Taylor
WR: Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Santana Moss, Nate Burleson
TE: Kellen Winslow

Team 5
QB: Tony Romo
RB: Ray Rice, Justin Forsett, Clinton Portis, Donald Brown
WR: Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, Devin Hester, Demaryius Thomas
TE: Heath Miller

Team 6
QB: Eli Manning, Chad Henne
RB: Steven Jackson, Shonn Greene, Felix Jones, Montario Hardesty
WR: Michael Crabtree, Malcom Floyd, Chaz Schilens, Early Doucet
TE: Brent Celek

Team 7
QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Michael Turner, Ahmad Bradshaw, Willis McGahee, Derrick Ward
WR: Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Roy Williams, Chris Chambers
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe

Team 8
QB: Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford
RB: Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas, Jahvid Best, Fred Jackson
WR: Andre Johnson, Johnny Knox, Mario Manningham, Mohamed Massaquoi
TE: Jason Witten

Team 9
QB: Drew Brees
RB: Jonathan Stewart, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Bernard Scott
WR: Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Devin Aromashodu, Jacoby Jones, Golden Tate
TE: Owen Daniels

Team 10
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams
WR: Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Bernard Berrian
TE: Jermichael Finley

Team 11
QB: Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Ricky Williams, Marion Barber, Ben Tate, Anthony Dixon
WR: Randy Moss, Roddy White, Antonio Bryant, Devin Thomas
TE: Dallas Clark

Team 12
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno, Jerome Harrison, Darren Sproles
WR: Steve Smith NYG, Donald Driver, Dez Bryant, Terrell Owens, Devery Henderson
TE: Greg Olsen

Team 13
QB: Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez
RB: Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells, LaDainian Tomlinson
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem, Kevin Walter
TE: Kevin Boss

Team 14
QB: Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassel
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Laurence Maroney
WR: Calvin Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson
TE: Vernon Davis, Zach Miller
Best: 1,4,12
Average 2,5,7,8,9
Rest 3,6,10,11,13,14

Overall, very competitive league. Hard to differentiate. Team 2 would have been great with a replacement for Rice. I also like the Favre/BenBurger combo.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I love team 3.

[3rookie]

Took CJ first
Schaub was the only one of the top 6 QBs remaining @28 so we took him
DeSean Jackson went the pick before. He was the last of the 9 WRs we were targeting. Colston and both SSmiths were there. Took Ryan Grant over Charles/McCoy/Moreno/Thomas @29. I hate the pick. Regretted not taking Charles but got scared about sharing time.Done. 1/2 PPR, High QB (and Def) scoring, 14 teams, start 1,2,2,1,1,1,Flex, #1 overall pick

QB: Schaub (2), ASmith (11)
RB: Chris' J (1), Grant (3), Bradshaw (4), Cadillac (6), maybe KFaulk (18)
WR: Bowe (5), SMoss (7), Breaston (9), Avery (10), Murphy (13), DHenderson (14)
TE: Shiancoe (8), Boss (15)
K: Buehler (16)
D: SF (12), MIA (17)

WRs are questionable, need one to break out. Waited too long to get Brandon Jackson, didn't really want Ringer to handcuff CJ.

[3rookie]

I love team 3.Yeah, I must be tired. They are certainly in the top 5.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Done. 1/2 PPR, High QB (and Def) scoring, 14 teams, start 1,2,2,1,1,1,Flex, #1 overall pick

QB: Schaub (2), ASmith (11)
RB: Chris' J (1), Grant (3), Bradshaw (4), Cadillac (6), maybe KFaulk (18)
WR: Bowe (5), SMoss (7), Breaston (9), Avery (10), Murphy (13), DHenderson (14)
TE: Shiancoe (8), Boss (15)
K: Buehler (16)
D: SF (12), MIA (17)

WRs are questionable, need one to break out. Waited too long to get Brandon Jackson, didn't really want Ringer to handcuff CJ.

I think you did a pretty good job, even if you didn't go Peypey 1 :)

Your WRs are pretty solid, you shouldn't worry too much.

[BallaActuary]

This guy says it better than I can. I just think he is the better back and is on a team that will run a lot. I see 1,200 yards and 10TDs as a very reasonable expectation with a lot of upside from there.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=77&articleid=35884&pg=2

In 12 of the 13 games Williams played in last year, he outscored Stewart fantasywise. In the 13th, Williams got injured early in the 1st half.

He is easily top 10 if Williams gets hurt (and he can stay healthy himself), but a reach in the 3rd round, IMO.

And I agree with dlwk, Matt Moore is an upgrade over Delhomme. Williams will get the bulk of the carries, but I don't see Stewart being much better than a Thomas Jones this year.

[jayhawk]

Had auction last night. 10 teams - 2qb/3rb/4wr/1te/d/k/9bench $200. I normally go cheap on RB's and spend my money on QB's and WR's (6 points all td's). This year, got caught price inforcing Adrian Peterson and got him for $60
Final team:
QB: Brees/Flacco (Campbell)
RB: AP/Forte/Forsett (Washington, Taylor, Jacobs, RBush, AP's backup)
WR: VJax/SSmith (NYG)/Harvin/Jac Jones/Meachem/Britt/Heyward-Bay (no idea which 4 to start)
TE: Winslow

Spent $98 on RB's, $66 on qb's and $26 on wr's.
Seem competitive? By the way, after I got brees for $42, the other 6 top QB's went for $42+, so feel good about that buy.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Your WR situation is semi-grim, but you knew that already. At least until VJax suits up. Smith, Meachem, Britt, and Harvin.

Love the team.

[JustASix]

Yeah, great team with those 2 QB in a 2 QB 6pt passing TD league. AP and Forte are a very strong RB tandem and your WR, while rough looking, have a lot of upside which is perfect for the rest of your team.

[3rookie]

ditto

[Get Busy Livin']

AP's backup
Just curious, has this been decided yet? Last I saw it looked like Gerhart would likely be 3rd string, but that was several weeks ago.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

And I agree with dlwk, Matt Moore is an upgrade over Delhomme. Williams will get the bulk of the carries, but I don't see Stewart being much better than a Thomas Jones this year.

All things being equal, I see DWill and Stewart sharing the carries 50/50, the question is which one of them gets injured first. DWill had his issues last year, Stewart has had chronic foot problems that flare up.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Fantasy Risers And Fallers 2010
by Bill Barnwell
Although we've kept it out of the book over the past couple of years, the Fantasy Risers and Fallers piece that we formerly included in the Pro Football Prospectus days has been an oft-requested feature. As we did last year, we're happy to present it online instead.
As with last year's piece, I'm going to focus on players who have a large gap between their KUBIAK rank and their ADP in fantasy drafts around the Internet, attempt to highlight what KUBIAK sees that the masses are avoiding, and discuss how much faith I have in our friendly algorithm's thinking. KUBIAK rank is based on standard scoring settings, the ones you find as default when you download the application.
Remember that just because KUBIAK ranks a player higher than national ADP, it doesn't mean you draft him in that spot. If KUBIAK ranks a player 20th, and national ADP has him 60th, that's a player you start to consider drafting around pick 40 or so.
If you haven't purchased KUBIAK yet, remember that our Excel application features the ability to customize league rules, updates for the preseason, many more stat categories than are listed in FOA 2010, and individual defensive players. You can buy it for $20 here.
Fantasy Risers 2010
Matt Forte
KUBIAK Rank: 8
National ADP: 41
Forte is discussed at length in the book as perhaps the ideal bounce-back candidate. He spent most of last season with a knee injury, his line was terrible, and he had an extremely fluky level of subpar play near the goal line. One thing not mentioned in the book is that he had 57 catches and didn't score a receiving touchdown. Only 44 players in the past 20 seasons have caught 50 or more passes without taking the ball to the house at least once. The acquisition of Chester Taylor and arrival of Mike Martz could be pushing owners away from Forte, but KUBIAK has him projected for a very reasonable 285 touches. The last guy with this sort of profile was Thomas Jones before the 2008 season, and he went from 66th in fantasy points to ninth. Forte went from eighth in 2008 to 63rd last year. He should be far closer to eighth again this year.
Ronnie Brown
KUBIAK Rank: 16
National ADP: 35
Brown has a remarkably high touchdown total -- for his 215 carries, Brown is expected to score 12 rushing touchdowns. For that, you can thank the work of the offensive line in front of him. The Dolphins were second in the league in power situations a year ago, and two Dolphins backs were 1-2 in power conversions over expectation (although it was Ricky Williams and Lousaka Polite, thanks to Brown's injury). People are inherently hesitant to take Brown because he's an injury risk, but the players around him (LeSean McCoy, Cedric Benson, Beanie Wells) have their own risks.
Donovan McNabb
KUBIAK Rank: 44
National ADP: 107
OK, so McNabb is moving out of a pass-happy system. And he's an injury risk. And he's playing behind an offensive line that's been rebuilt on the fly. And every one of his wide receivers seems to be a bad dream. On the other hand, Jammal Brown and Trent Williams should be a good pair of tackles, he's got an excellent group of receivers at running back and tight end, and the struggles of the other wide receivers tend to blind people to the fact that Santana Moss has nearly 2,000 yards over the last two seasons. I suppose the issue is how frequently Mike Shanahan throws the ball. Jay Cutler threw 616 passes in Shanahan's final year in Denver, but that came during the year of infinite halfback injuries. In the two prior seasons, Denver starters threw an average of 460 passes. KUBIAK essentially splits the difference and has McNabb at 516 attempts, but factor in the built-in expectation for McNabb getting hurt, and it thinks that the Redskins are going to throw the ball at a rate approaching that 2008 rate. Perhaps that's too bold, but should McNabb really be behind Joe Flacco?
Matt Ryan
KUBIAK Rank: 49
National ADP: 94
Not to pick on Flacco, but I also couldn't believe that the Unibrowed One was ahead of Ryan on the ADP charts. Ryan had 232 points in what amounted to a 13-game season; Flacco had 252 points in 16. Yes, Flacco is getting Anquan Boldin this year, but Boldin is just about Flacco's only above-average receiver (we may not share the same opinions about Ray Rice and Todd Heap), while Ryan should benefit from an improved year from Roddy White and the return of Harry Douglas from ACL surgery. Ryan is going off the board as a QB2 when he's really a second-division starter with some upside. (Remember that he gets a boost in KUBIAK rank as the only starting quarterback with "Blue" Risk Factor.) I'm not so sure I wouldn't take Ryan ahead of Matt Schaub (ADP of 38). Certainly, I'd rather flip it and have Ronnie Brown and Ryan than, say, Schaub and Thomas Jones (ADP of 93).
Hines Ward
KUBIAK Rank: 20
National ADP: 60
Ward had a season straight out of his peak a year ago, with 95 catches and nearly 1,200 yards. Now, 34-year-old receivers are a scary proposition, but similar guys -- Tim Brown, Rod Smith, and Donald Driver come to mind -- were able to sustain their previous level of performance. These sort of wideouts tend to play at a really high level before suffering a huge, sudden dropoff that they can't recover from. It's very difficult to predict when that dropoff will occur. The absence of Ben Roethlisberger comes into play, but Byron Leftwich wasn't actually all that bad last year after you account for the difficulty of his short schedule. I charted both of those games, and against Dallas, Leftwich was running for his life before he even finished his drop.
Steve Breaston
KUBIAK Rank: 54
National ADP: 99
I'm one of the people who believes that Early Doucet will end up playing the Anquan Boldin role in the Cardinals offense. And losing Kurt Warner is going to hurt the Cardinals passing attack. But Breaston is going to start the season, at least, playing across from Larry Fitzgerald. That means something. He should be healthy after a knee injury cost him time in 2009. I'd certainly take him well ahead of Robert Meachem (ADP of 92).
Fantasy Fallers 2010
Alex Smith
KUBIAK Rank: 174
National ADP: 141
The case for Smith as a viable NFL quarterback rests upon a really easy schedule and a fluky performance inside the red zone last year. The red-zone performance isn't going to stick -- the Niners were second-to-last in the league in red zone performance in 2008, and while that was without Michael Crabtree, it was with Vernon Davis, who did most of the damage a year ago. The schedule is still going to be pretty easy, but the Seahawks and Rams should be better this year (they can't be much worse). In all likelihood, there won't be seven percentage points between his DVOA and VOA.
Carson Palmer
KUBIAK Rank: 202
National ADP: 101
Palmer was a very good quarterback in this league through 2006, but since 2007, he's been disturbingly average. His yards per attempt have gone from 7.4 to 6.8, and while part of that has to do with the aging of Chad Ochocinco and the eventual departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco remains the only NFL-caliber receiver on the roster at any position. He played 16 games last year, but Palmer was clearly injured by the end of the season. Questions about his supporting cast and health make him a player to avoid.
Reggie Bush
KUBIAK Rank: 107
National ADP: 68
Reggie Bush's rank in fantasy points among running backs in each of his four seasons as a pro: 17, 24, 36, 35. His touches have fallen each season. He had 117 touches in 14 games a year ago, less than half of what he was averaging as a rookie, when he had 243 touches in 16 games. He was finally effective as a runner last year, averaging 5.6 yards a carry after failing to go above 3.8 YPC in any other season, but I would suspect that's a fluke of having 70 carries to work with. Maybe he's suddenly going to break out after four seasons. That's a risk you should let someone else take in the fifth round.
Calvin Johnson
KUBIAK Rank: 46
National ADP: 14
This isn't Madden. On merit, Calvin Johnson is arguably the most talented receiver in football. In a vacuum, he could be the best wideout in fantasy football. He doesn't play in a vacuum, though. He plays in Detroit, where his quarterback is Matthew Stafford, and he's limped through two of his three professional seasons. The addition of Tony Scheffler isn't going to take any heat off of him; it's not like defenses are going to worry about Scheffler and stop doubling Johnson. In a better situation, he would deserve to be 14th, but the soft factors are too important.
Miles Austin
KUBIAK Rank: 55
National ADP: 16
I've written at ESPN Insider about how Austin's YAC is unsustainable (although I did not write that headline), and injury is also something to consider here -- one of the reasons Austin didn't break out until midway through the 2009 season is a string of hamstring injuries. Those don't normally go away.
Brandon Marshall
KUBIAK Rank: 67
National ADP: 18
People are underestimating the contextual shift for Marshall. He's playing with the worst quarterback of his career now (although this changes if Chad Pennington ends up with the starting job at some point during the year). He's on a team that runs the ball a large percentage of the time, and he's in a division with the league's toughest group of pass defenses. There just aren't 165 targets in the hopper.
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 26 Aug 2010

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/fantasy-risers-and-fallers-2010

[JustASix]

All things being equal, I see DWill and Stewart sharing the carries 50/50, the question is which one of them gets injured first. DWill had his issues last year, Stewart has had chronic foot problems that flare up.
I don't think there needs to be an injury for them to both be top 15 backs. Either is top 5 if they are alone but they are both going to do well this year, I just think Stewart will do a little better (fantasywise).

[epeddy1]

Got a general question, and then specifics about why I'm asking.


How do you feel about having a QB and WR on the same team? Or a QB and RB on the same team? (6 pt TD for QB, WR, and RB; not PPR)

I'm asking because I have Rodgers as a keeper. I have picks 10 and 11, and it looks like Ryan Grant and/or Greg Jennings will possibly be best available at their position by the time my pick comes around because of all the other top players being kept. My predraft strategy is to take best WR and best RB available. Greg Jennings will succeed and fail along with Rodgers, and Grant will only get TD's if Rodgers doesn't, and visa versa. Should I go ahead and take them if they are best available, or should I be cautious because I have Rodgers?

[3rookie]

Got a general question, and then specifics about why I'm asking.
How do you feel about having a QB and WR on the same team? Or a QB and RB on the same team? (6 pt TD for QB, WR, and RB; not PPR)
I'm asking because I have Rodgers as a keeper. I have picks 10 and 11, and it looks like Ryan Grant and/or Greg Jennings will possibly be best available at their position by the time my pick comes around because of all the other top players being kept. My predraft strategy is to take best WR and best RB available. Greg Jennings will succeed and fail along with Rodgers, and Grant will only get TD's if Rodgers doesn't, and visa versa. Should I go ahead and take them if they are best available, or should I be cautious because I have Rodgers?I'm not sure about taking both. If there is nothing else comparable, I would be OK with it.

[3rookie]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/fantasy-risers-and-fallers-2010Well, the logical follow-up question is could you post the same analysis for 2009?

[JollyGoodFCAS]

I think if you're going to double down, Rodgers/Jennings is a safe bet. QB/WR on same team gets much more risky if you're talking about pairs like Leinart/Fitzgerald or EManning/SSmith.

I wouldn't take Grant, if you're not happy with the next best RB then take another WR and wait till the 3rd round.

[BallaActuary]

All things being equal, I see DWill and Stewart sharing the carries 50/50, the question is which one of them gets injured first. DWill had his issues last year, Stewart has had chronic foot problems that flare up.

But what brings you to believe they will split carries 50/50?

In the first 11 games last year, Williams had 197 carries. Stewart ONLY had 119. In the 5 games where Williams was essentially hurt to end the season, Williams had 19 carries and Stewart had 102.

Stewart hasn't played all preseason.

There is nothing from camp to suggest Stewart will get an increase in carries and Williams is in a contract year - time for him to get paid before he's too old.

Matt Moore is a considerable upgrade over Tommy John Delhomme. I think their defense will be worse with the loss of Peppers, so I don't think they get close to 500 carries this year.

It makes no sense that he goes in the 3rd and McGahee goes in the 12th+

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

2009 version

31 Jul 2009
Fantasy Risers And Fallers
by Bill Barnwell
In the last few versions of Pro Football Prospectus, we've included a piece known as "Fantasy Risers and Fallers", based upon the players that had the biggest leaps between their performance in the prior year and their projected KUBIAK performance in the upcoming season.
For a variety of reasons, the piece didn't appear in this year's Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, but fret not; after several requests on our discussion forums and through e-mail, we've put together a Fantasy Risers and Fallers column for free here on the Web site. We'll note ten players on both sides of the coin whose KUBIAK ranking bears little resemblance to their ADP and discuss why KUBIAK grades them as such, plus I'll give my own two cents as to whether the ol' spreadsheet has any idea what it's talking about.
Of course, if you've read FOA 09 already, you know that we have a very high opinion of the San Diego Chargers. KUBIAK, naturally, shares our positive thinking, so we start with my personal choice for 2009 NFL MVP...
Quarterbacks
Risers
Philip Rivers, Chargers (ADP Difference: 27): We have Rivers as the fourth quarterback off the board, while ADP has him tied with Kurt Warner for fifth/sixth; we'll get to Warner in a bit, but the Chargers' sunny projection bodes well for Rivers' 2009. In addition, his consistency in 2008 was remarkable; he was equally effective across the board in virtually any split we can try and muster up. He did all that while recovering from a torn ACL, and gets to play a creampuff schedule. Oh, and his best receiving option is 100 percent again. Most places see some regression from Rivers; we see a step forward. KUBIAK would be even higher if our expected wins for the Chargers weren't so damn high.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (49): KUBIAK doesn't know about the rape allegations against Roethlisberger, but our ADP data was taken from before those charges came out. If anything, he might fall even further on draft day now. Roethlisberger's touchdowns were abnormally low last year -- he threw a touchdown on 5.8 percent of his attempts before 2008, but was only at 3.6 percent last year (a figure he only approached in his lost year of 2006). Roethlisberger will always be a health risk, but his offensive line should be better this year, and having a motivated Santonio Holmes should give him another option in the passing game.
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (46): Hasselbeck was the seventh-best quarterback in the league in 2007, but one year of injuries and it's like he never existed? Matt Cassel's ADP (103) is ahead of Hasselbeck's (105). Consider the talent that surrounds these two players. Now realize that Cassel's schedule is harder than Hasselbeck's. Now fear for the future of humanity. Hasselbeck's your best bet if you're stuck looking for a quarterback in the sixth or seventh round.
Fallers
Matt Ryan, Falcons (-11): Remember the end of the 2006 season? You know, when people couldn't throw Charlie Casserly out of a moving train fast enough for taking Mario Williams over the scintillating, dynamic Reggie Bush? It takes more than a year to judge a rookie's ability in the NFL, especially in a situation where everything goes right for him. That was Ryan last year, who had an extremely effective running game and an absurdly healthy offense around him. Odds of that happening this year? Not so high. We expect some regression from the Falcons, some more injuries, and a decline in performance by Ryan.
Kurt Warner, Cardinals (-60): Last year was the first time Kurt Warner made it through a full 16-game season since 2001. (Granted, Warner's had some years where he didn't have the opportunity to get hurt, so it's not like he's Chad Pennington.) He's 38 this year. Exactly two quarterbacks over the last 15 years have made it through 16 games at 38: Brett Favre and Vinny Testaverde. Although Warner doesn't have the miles on his body that either of those quarterbacks have, he has nothing close to their record of health. 38's a bad age for quarterbacks; it was the final year of John Elway, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and Steve Young's careers; none of the four made it through the entire regular season. In other words, we expect him to get hurt.
Carson Palmer, Bengals (-59): Here's one where I think KUBIAK is a little harsh. It sees Palmer as an injury risk after last year's injury, but there's not a huge reason to think that Palmer's problems will recur. There's also concern about the revamping of the Bengals offensive line, but truthfully, lining up a blocking sled might have been preferable to last year's disaster.
Running Backs
Risers
Julius Jones, Seahawks (63): Probably KUBIAK's most controversial projection this year. Jones' big year is predicated on the idea that the Seahawks will improve -- and thus run out the clock more frequently -- while Jones holds on to the top spot in the Seattle running back committee. (This projection does account for T.J. Duckett receiving his fair share of the goal-line carries, and you may note that since the publication of the book, our KUBIAK downloadable projections have transferred a couple of touchdowns from Jones to Duckett.) Jones did average 4.4 yards per carry last year despite a passing offense that was in shambles, so he certainly wasn't awful in his first year as a Seahawk. The real issue here is health; Jones hasn’t shown the ability to carry the load as a full-time back in the past without experiencing a decrease in performance, getting hurt, or otherwise angering his coaches. While Duckett and Justin Forsett aren't likely replacements as a full-time back, the possibility of a Ryan Grant-style swoop in to become an unexpected lead back here are high. Does that mean Jones should be avoided on draft day? Not really. Just pay attention to the news.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (17): We might be the only people who have Moreno ahead of Michael Turner, but we've got our reasons. Receptions as a college back translate very well to that same ability on the pro level, making Moreno a likely fit as an all-purpose back as a rookie. While Josh McDaniels rotated his backs frequently in New England, truthfully, he didn't have one as good as Moreno. He also never had an offensive line that blocked for the run as well as the 2008 Broncos' line did, Adjusted Line Yards aside.
LenDale White, Titans (35): Our spreadsheet doesn't take into account his weight loss, but White appears to be motivated heading into 2009. His projection is higher than most places because of his usage pattern, but it's hard to figure out how he'll see fewer than the 201 carries we have him projected for. It's not like Tennessee's going to start throwing the ball 35 times a game, and while they probably will run the ball less frequently in 2009 because of a decrease in their win-loss record, White and Chris Johnson combined for 451 carries last year. If anyone's going to lose carries, it's probably the slight Johnson, who is a bigger injury risk than White.
Felix Jones, Cowboys (35): Here's one I don't agree with. Jones, of course, was dynamite in a small sample last year. KUBIAK expects him to get 203 touches in the Cowboys offense this year (151 rushes and 52 receptions). I'd take the under on both. Before Jones got hurt, he wasn't a bigger part of the Cowboys offense because of his inability to do everything a back needs to do. He wasn't an effective blocker, didn't sell fakes well, and didn't fit into the Cowboys' scheme as an interior runner. He'll get better as a sophomore, but he's just not likely to pull off as many big plays as he did a year ago; he's fast, but not otherworldly-fast. Something closer to 100 carries and 30 receptions makes more sense.
Fallers
Michael Turner, Falcons (-29): This one should be simple. Overworked a year ago, healthy team around him that's not likely to recur, far-above-average touchdown rate inside the five, and while we're at it, let's throw in Plexiglass Principle. You put the pieces together.
Joseph Addai, Colts (-38): The theory that I've espoused about Addai this offseason is that Donald Brown isn't ready as a pass blocker to play in the Colts' system. That would lead to an early-season situation where Addai got the bulk of the team's carries, as with Peyton Manning calling one of several different plays at the line, it's more difficult to just send Brown out there when you know you're going to run the ball. With the Colts having a relatively relaxed first half of run defenses, Addai could be a great trade-high candidate about halfway through the year.
Willie Parker, Steelers (-35): Of course, we don't think Willie Parker is all that great. He's also missed time with injuries each of the past two seasons, is entering the decline phase for backs, and has 2008 first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall returning from injury behind him. It's not impossible to see Parker holding on to his job and having a good year; it's just that a lot of things will have to stay status quo for that to happen.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills (-76): This might just be the idiots in casual leagues or auto-drafts propping up Lynch's ADP, but I really don't get this one. The guy's going to miss the first four games of the year. When he comes back, chances are that it'll take him a week or two to get into the rotation. That leaves him 10 games. Even 12 games of Lynch last year would have been 828 yards and six TD's. Is that really worth spending a fourth-round pick on?
Wide Receivers
Risers
Vincent Jackson, Chargers (18): Another innocent bystander on the Chargers bandwagon, Jackson has been elevating himself to Receiver 1A status alongside Antonio Gates. We don't project his usage to rise much, but simply instead that Jackson will haul in 10 scores on his 68 receptions thanks to his huge frame in the red zone. In fact, our projected 15.3 yards per catch is probably a little low; Jackson's averaged 17.2 yards per catch so far as a pro.
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts (23): He is a starting wide receiver in the Indianapolis Colts' offense.
Hines Ward, Steelers (33): I get the feeling that Ward's going to have that Rod Smith-style late run to his career, where he plays really well up to a point and then just falls off a cliff. All his metrics -- his usage pattern, his yards per reception, and yards after catch -- are consistent, and those of a very good wide receiver. At 33 and entering his 12th season, it's not like a good year for him would be unprecedented: Tim Brown and Cris Carter both made the Pro Bowl in the same situation.
Fallers
Wes Welker, Patriots (-13): Welker's obviously an extremely unique player at this point, one whose catch rate has been so freakishly high the last two years that KUBIAK doesn't know what to do with him. Unless Welker gets hurt or the Patriots shift away from their current scheme, Welker's usage pattern and catch rate should remain about where they are now. I'd ignore this downgrade.
Anquan Boldin, Cardinals (-21): It's easy to see a guy who caught 89 passes in 12 games last year and think, "Man! If he had played those four extra games..." Unfortunately, Boldin's not likely to play those four extra games; he's a physical player that's missed time in four out of his six seasons as a pro. He has more miles on his body than most receivers do at 29. Combining those injury concerns with his presence in the news (likely artificially raising his draft value) and the Cardinals' expected decline, Boldin's not a safe play at his current ADP of 27.
Roy Williams, Cowboys (-13): Context, context, context. Like Boldin, Williams has injury issues; he's only made it through one full season as a pro (although last year's 15-game season was due to his trade, not an injury, so it's really two seasons). He has one season that sticks out like a sore thumb: That healthy season, 2006, when he caught 82 passes for 1,310 receiving yards in his first year under Mike Martz. His next-best year is 838 yards. I mean, maybe there's an elite receiver there, it's possible. He's already through his rookie contract, though, and he's got exactly one year as a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver. And yet -- somehow -- his ADP is 40 and Anthony Gonzalez's is 57. If you pick him before Gonzalez, truthfully, you deserve to finish in eighth place.
Tight Ends
Risers
Antonio Gates, Chargers (11): It's pretty obvious that Gates' toe injury and Jeromey Clary's blocking issues caused Gates to stay at home a little more frequently in 2008. His catch rate was exactly what it normally was. He averaged about a yard per catch less than he normally does, which is within the realm of natural variance considering the rest of Gates' career. He just was targeted 25 fewer times than he normally is. There's no reason to think those 25 targets aren't going to come back this year, and that should mean another 15 catches, 180 receiving yards, and two touchdowns upon his totals from last year. That would put him at 75/880/10, right near our KUBIAK projection of 70/842/9.
Zach Miller, Raiders (42): OK, so people aren't taking Zach Miller because a fair amount of fantasy football players probably have no idea who he is. KUBIAK likes the rise in his usage pattern, the lack of viable receiving options around him (sorry, Darrius Heyward-Bey), and the likelihood that he'll improve on his one touchdown catch from a year ago. Our line for him is a mirror image of his 2008, just with a few more touchdowns thrown in.
Fallers
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons (-22). We'll address Gonzalez in Monday's Wisdom of Crowds, but the spike in his stats the last two years came because he played on an awful team that had one receiver of any remote consequence behind him. Atlanta, at the very least, has Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Harry Douglas. When he gets 150-plus targets, he puts up those crazy 95-plus catch seasons that will get him into the Hall of Fame. We expect his target totals to drop some, which will result in a decrease in raw numbers.
Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers (-20). Winslow's the sixth tight end off the board because, uh, his dad's famous? He used to curse a lot? He's tough enough to ... forget it, just threw up. Those 2006 and 2007 raw totals look nice, but the guy's started exactly half of the games he was eligible to play in as a professional so far. He posted what appears to be a total fluke catch rate of 76 percent in 2006, considering his catch rate's been at 54 percent over the other three years of his career. He also doesn't have a quarterback yet. Just avoid him. You'll feel better about it.
Stay tuned to FO next week for the final Wisdom of Crowds feature on fantasy football, as well as another oft-requested-by-the-readers bit of analysis that could absolutely, positively change how you look at the game.
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 31 Jul 2009

31 comments, Last at 08 Aug 2009, 9:04pm by Big Johnson, 0 new comments

[3rookie]

2009 version

31 Jul 2009
Fantasy Risers And Fallers
by Bill Barnwell
In the last few versions of Pro Football Prospectus, we've included a piece known as "Fantasy Risers and Fallers", based upon the players that had the biggest leaps between their performance in the prior year and their projected KUBIAK performance in the upcoming season.
For a variety of reasons, the piece didn't appear in this year's Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, but fret not; after several requests on our discussion forums and through e-mail, we've put together a Fantasy Risers and Fallers column for free here on the Web site. We'll note ten players on both sides of the coin whose KUBIAK ranking bears little resemblance to their ADP and discuss why KUBIAK grades them as such, plus I'll give my own two cents as to whether the ol' spreadsheet has any idea what it's talking about.
Of course, if you've read FOA 09 already, you know that we have a very high opinion of the San Diego Chargers. KUBIAK, naturally, shares our positive thinking, so we start with my personal choice for 2009 NFL MVP...
Quarterbacks
Risers
Philip Rivers, Chargers (ADP Difference: 27): We have Rivers as the fourth quarterback off the board, while ADP has him tied with Kurt Warner for fifth/sixth; we'll get to Warner in a bit, but the Chargers' sunny projection bodes well for Rivers' 2009. In addition, his consistency in 2008 was remarkable; he was equally effective across the board in virtually any split we can try and muster up. He did all that while recovering from a torn ACL, and gets to play a creampuff schedule. Oh, and his best receiving option is 100 percent again. Most places see some regression from Rivers; we see a step forward. KUBIAK would be even higher if our expected wins for the Chargers weren't so damn high.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (49): KUBIAK doesn't know about the rape allegations against Roethlisberger, but our ADP data was taken from before those charges came out. If anything, he might fall even further on draft day now. Roethlisberger's touchdowns were abnormally low last year -- he threw a touchdown on 5.8 percent of his attempts before 2008, but was only at 3.6 percent last year (a figure he only approached in his lost year of 2006). Roethlisberger will always be a health risk, but his offensive line should be better this year, and having a motivated Santonio Holmes should give him another option in the passing game.
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (46): Hasselbeck was the seventh-best quarterback in the league in 2007, but one year of injuries and it's like he never existed? Matt Cassel's ADP (103) is ahead of Hasselbeck's (105). Consider the talent that surrounds these two players. Now realize that Cassel's schedule is harder than Hasselbeck's. Now fear for the future of humanity. Hasselbeck's your best bet if you're stuck looking for a quarterback in the sixth or seventh round.
Fallers
Matt Ryan, Falcons (-11): Remember the end of the 2006 season? You know, when people couldn't throw Charlie Casserly out of a moving train fast enough for taking Mario Williams over the scintillating, dynamic Reggie Bush? It takes more than a year to judge a rookie's ability in the NFL, especially in a situation where everything goes right for him. That was Ryan last year, who had an extremely effective running game and an absurdly healthy offense around him. Odds of that happening this year? Not so high. We expect some regression from the Falcons, some more injuries, and a decline in performance by Ryan.
Kurt Warner, Cardinals (-60): Last year was the first time Kurt Warner made it through a full 16-game season since 2001. (Granted, Warner's had some years where he didn't have the opportunity to get hurt, so it's not like he's Chad Pennington.) He's 38 this year. Exactly two quarterbacks over the last 15 years have made it through 16 games at 38: Brett Favre and Vinny Testaverde. Although Warner doesn't have the miles on his body that either of those quarterbacks have, he has nothing close to their record of health. 38's a bad age for quarterbacks; it was the final year of John Elway, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and Steve Young's careers; none of the four made it through the entire regular season. In other words, we expect him to get hurt.
Carson Palmer, Bengals (-59): Here's one where I think KUBIAK is a little harsh. It sees Palmer as an injury risk after last year's injury, but there's not a huge reason to think that Palmer's problems will recur. There's also concern about the revamping of the Bengals offensive line, but truthfully, lining up a blocking sled might have been preferable to last year's disaster.
Running Backs
Risers
Julius Jones, Seahawks (63): Probably KUBIAK's most controversial projection this year. Jones' big year is predicated on the idea that the Seahawks will improve -- and thus run out the clock more frequently -- while Jones holds on to the top spot in the Seattle running back committee. (This projection does account for T.J. Duckett receiving his fair share of the goal-line carries, and you may note that since the publication of the book, our KUBIAK downloadable projections have transferred a couple of touchdowns from Jones to Duckett.) Jones did average 4.4 yards per carry last year despite a passing offense that was in shambles, so he certainly wasn't awful in his first year as a Seahawk. The real issue here is health; Jones hasn’t shown the ability to carry the load as a full-time back in the past without experiencing a decrease in performance, getting hurt, or otherwise angering his coaches. While Duckett and Justin Forsett aren't likely replacements as a full-time back, the possibility of a Ryan Grant-style swoop in to become an unexpected lead back here are high. Does that mean Jones should be avoided on draft day? Not really. Just pay attention to the news.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (17): We might be the only people who have Moreno ahead of Michael Turner, but we've got our reasons. Receptions as a college back translate very well to that same ability on the pro level, making Moreno a likely fit as an all-purpose back as a rookie. While Josh McDaniels rotated his backs frequently in New England, truthfully, he didn't have one as good as Moreno. He also never had an offensive line that blocked for the run as well as the 2008 Broncos' line did, Adjusted Line Yards aside.
LenDale White, Titans (35): Our spreadsheet doesn't take into account his weight loss, but White appears to be motivated heading into 2009. His projection is higher than most places because of his usage pattern, but it's hard to figure out how he'll see fewer than the 201 carries we have him projected for. It's not like Tennessee's going to start throwing the ball 35 times a game, and while they probably will run the ball less frequently in 2009 because of a decrease in their win-loss record, White and Chris Johnson combined for 451 carries last year. If anyone's going to lose carries, it's probably the slight Johnson, who is a bigger injury risk than White.
Felix Jones, Cowboys (35): Here's one I don't agree with. Jones, of course, was dynamite in a small sample last year. KUBIAK expects him to get 203 touches in the Cowboys offense this year (151 rushes and 52 receptions). I'd take the under on both. Before Jones got hurt, he wasn't a bigger part of the Cowboys offense because of his inability to do everything a back needs to do. He wasn't an effective blocker, didn't sell fakes well, and didn't fit into the Cowboys' scheme as an interior runner. He'll get better as a sophomore, but he's just not likely to pull off as many big plays as he did a year ago; he's fast, but not otherworldly-fast. Something closer to 100 carries and 30 receptions makes more sense.
Fallers
Michael Turner, Falcons (-29): This one should be simple. Overworked a year ago, healthy team around him that's not likely to recur, far-above-average touchdown rate inside the five, and while we're at it, let's throw in Plexiglass Principle. You put the pieces together.
Joseph Addai, Colts (-38): The theory that I've espoused about Addai this offseason is that Donald Brown isn't ready as a pass blocker to play in the Colts' system. That would lead to an early-season situation where Addai got the bulk of the team's carries, as with Peyton Manning calling one of several different plays at the line, it's more difficult to just send Brown out there when you know you're going to run the ball. With the Colts having a relatively relaxed first half of run defenses, Addai could be a great trade-high candidate about halfway through the year.
Willie Parker, Steelers (-35): Of course, we don't think Willie Parker is all that great. He's also missed time with injuries each of the past two seasons, is entering the decline phase for backs, and has 2008 first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall returning from injury behind him. It's not impossible to see Parker holding on to his job and having a good year; it's just that a lot of things will have to stay status quo for that to happen.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills (-76): This might just be the idiots in casual leagues or auto-drafts propping up Lynch's ADP, but I really don't get this one. The guy's going to miss the first four games of the year. When he comes back, chances are that it'll take him a week or two to get into the rotation. That leaves him 10 games. Even 12 games of Lynch last year would have been 828 yards and six TD's. Is that really worth spending a fourth-round pick on?
Wide Receivers
Risers
Vincent Jackson, Chargers (18): Another innocent bystander on the Chargers bandwagon, Jackson has been elevating himself to Receiver 1A status alongside Antonio Gates. We don't project his usage to rise much, but simply instead that Jackson will haul in 10 scores on his 68 receptions thanks to his huge frame in the red zone. In fact, our projected 15.3 yards per catch is probably a little low; Jackson's averaged 17.2 yards per catch so far as a pro.
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts (23): He is a starting wide receiver in the Indianapolis Colts' offense.
Hines Ward, Steelers (33): I get the feeling that Ward's going to have that Rod Smith-style late run to his career, where he plays really well up to a point and then just falls off a cliff. All his metrics -- his usage pattern, his yards per reception, and yards after catch -- are consistent, and those of a very good wide receiver. At 33 and entering his 12th season, it's not like a good year for him would be unprecedented: Tim Brown and Cris Carter both made the Pro Bowl in the same situation.
Fallers
Wes Welker, Patriots (-13): Welker's obviously an extremely unique player at this point, one whose catch rate has been so freakishly high the last two years that KUBIAK doesn't know what to do with him. Unless Welker gets hurt or the Patriots shift away from their current scheme, Welker's usage pattern and catch rate should remain about where they are now. I'd ignore this downgrade.
Anquan Boldin, Cardinals (-21): It's easy to see a guy who caught 89 passes in 12 games last year and think, "Man! If he had played those four extra games..." Unfortunately, Boldin's not likely to play those four extra games; he's a physical player that's missed time in four out of his six seasons as a pro. He has more miles on his body than most receivers do at 29. Combining those injury concerns with his presence in the news (likely artificially raising his draft value) and the Cardinals' expected decline, Boldin's not a safe play at his current ADP of 27.
Roy Williams, Cowboys (-13): Context, context, context. Like Boldin, Williams has injury issues; he's only made it through one full season as a pro (although last year's 15-game season was due to his trade, not an injury, so it's really two seasons). He has one season that sticks out like a sore thumb: That healthy season, 2006, when he caught 82 passes for 1,310 receiving yards in his first year under Mike Martz. His next-best year is 838 yards. I mean, maybe there's an elite receiver there, it's possible. He's already through his rookie contract, though, and he's got exactly one year as a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver. And yet -- somehow -- his ADP is 40 and Anthony Gonzalez's is 57. If you pick him before Gonzalez, truthfully, you deserve to finish in eighth place.
Tight Ends
Risers
Antonio Gates, Chargers (11): It's pretty obvious that Gates' toe injury and Jeromey Clary's blocking issues caused Gates to stay at home a little more frequently in 2008. His catch rate was exactly what it normally was. He averaged about a yard per catch less than he normally does, which is within the realm of natural variance considering the rest of Gates' career. He just was targeted 25 fewer times than he normally is. There's no reason to think those 25 targets aren't going to come back this year, and that should mean another 15 catches, 180 receiving yards, and two touchdowns upon his totals from last year. That would put him at 75/880/10, right near our KUBIAK projection of 70/842/9.
Zach Miller, Raiders (42): OK, so people aren't taking Zach Miller because a fair amount of fantasy football players probably have no idea who he is. KUBIAK likes the rise in his usage pattern, the lack of viable receiving options around him (sorry, Darrius Heyward-Bey), and the likelihood that he'll improve on his one touchdown catch from a year ago. Our line for him is a mirror image of his 2008, just with a few more touchdowns thrown in.
Fallers
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons (-22). We'll address Gonzalez in Monday's Wisdom of Crowds, but the spike in his stats the last two years came because he played on an awful team that had one receiver of any remote consequence behind him. Atlanta, at the very least, has Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Harry Douglas. When he gets 150-plus targets, he puts up those crazy 95-plus catch seasons that will get him into the Hall of Fame. We expect his target totals to drop some, which will result in a decrease in raw numbers.
Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers (-20). Winslow's the sixth tight end off the board because, uh, his dad's famous? He used to curse a lot? He's tough enough to ... forget it, just threw up. Those 2006 and 2007 raw totals look nice, but the guy's started exactly half of the games he was eligible to play in as a professional so far. He posted what appears to be a total fluke catch rate of 76 percent in 2006, considering his catch rate's been at 54 percent over the other three years of his career. He also doesn't have a quarterback yet. Just avoid him. You'll feel better about it.
Stay tuned to FO next week for the final Wisdom of Crowds feature on fantasy football, as well as another oft-requested-by-the-readers bit of analysis that could absolutely, positively change how you look at the game.
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 31 Jul 2009

31 comments, Last at 08 Aug 2009, 9:04pm by Big Johnson, 0 new comments
Thanks

[JustASix]

In general, I think the Prospectus guys are really good at what they do. The problem is that what they do is statistical projections of real life. They are not good at fantasy sports, football or baseball. imo

[billyinvegas]

In general, I think the Prospectus guys are really good at what they do. The problem is that what they do is statistical projections of real life. They are not good at fantasy sports, football or baseball. imo

I agree with this.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

In general, I think the Prospectus guys are really good at what they do. The problem is that what they do is statistical projections of real life. They are not good at fantasy sports, football or baseball. imo

They do statistical projections of individual players, and those are used to form projections of teams. How is that "bad" for fantasy analysis?

[billyinvegas]

They do statistical projections of individual players, and those are used to form projections of teams. How is that "bad" for fantasy analysis?

Their methodology makes sense. It's the results that for some reason don't translate.

The only way to compare them is to compare them across other available sites (i.e. pick out the individual players that they had graded significantly higher than other sites). Those players last year were Julius Jones and Philip Rivers. Neither of those two outperformed their average draft position.

They had Julius Jones as a Top 10 RB and Rivers as a Top 3-4 QB if I remember correctly.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Their methodology makes sense. It's the results that for some reason don't translate.

The only way to compare them is to compare them across other available sites (i.e. pick out the individual players that they had graded significantly higher than other sites). Those players last year were Julius Jones and Philip Rivers. Neither of those two outperformed their average draft position.

They had Julius Jones as a Top 10 RB and Rivers as a Top 3-4 QB if I remember correctly.

Rivers was awesome last year, Jones, less so. Also, they make hundreds of calls each year, just sayin'

[BallaActuary]

Rivers was awesome last year, Jones, less so. Also, they make hundreds of calls each year, just sayin'

I'm sure most people could go 50/50 ..

[BallaActuary]

I think you did a pretty good job, even if you didn't go Peypey 1 :)

Your WRs are pretty solid, you shouldn't worry too much.

I think this new umpire position rule is going to disrupt Peyton horribly this year. He certainly is still a top QB, but he set himself apart from most of the other league because of his ability to make quick judgments and playcalls. He won't be the #1 QB this year.

[dlwktb]

Help me understand how it will affect the game. The announcers for the Buccaneers were trying to explain it, but I didn't understand.

[Mind if I do a J?]

Rising: Jabar Gaffney

Demaryius Thomas reinjured his foot yesterday and is out through at least Week 1. Brandon Stokely is also out for the preseason. That leaves Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney as the only legitimate WRs (Brandon Lloyd will probably be the WR3).

Royal has picked up in 2010 right where he left off; catching 1 pass for minimal yards in each of the Broncos preseason games. Gaffney is seeing lots of passes, including 6 receptions (on 7 targets), and 98 yards in limited action last week, all from starter Kyle Orton. Orton also gave him 14 catches (!!) for 213 yards (!!) in Week 17 last year, so they clearly have some serious chemistry. I think he's becoming a great sleeper pick.

[BallaActuary]

Help me understand how it will affect the game. The announcers for the Buccaneers were trying to explain it, but I didn't understand.

In short, the umpire who used to stand right behind the defensive line (and would get drilled with both footballs and players) now lines up behind the QB. The QB now must wait until the umpire gets behind him on the offensive side to run a play or get flagged for a penalty. They changed it for the safety of the umpires as teams would often use them as picks.

IIRC, the umpires will play behind the defensive line (their old position) in the last 2 minutes of each half.

This really affects teams that use hurry up plays outside 2 minutes like Manning because it takes longer to spot the ball and the old umpire to get deep behind the QB. Manning was a master at this either catching the defense offguard (easy pass) or simply substituting with 12 people still on the field. You could definitely see his frustration tonight vs GB.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

GB is also one of the best teams in football.

[JustASix]

Here are the AOFF draft results, any favorites?
12 team keeper league (keeper rules don't effect value too much). QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, DEF, K. Standard scoring. No PPR.


player, team, round picked
Team A
Chris Johnson, TEN, 1
Philip Rivers, SD, 2
Greg Jennings, GB, 3
Hines Ward, PIT, 4
LeSean McCoy, PHI, 5
Arian Foster, HOU, 6
Jeremy Maclin, PHI, 7
Owen Daniels, HOU, 8
Kenny Britt, TEN, 9
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI, 10
Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, 11
Chester Taylor, CHI, 12
Golden Tate, SEA, 13
Rob Bironas, TEN, 14
Joshua Cribbs, CLE, 15
Jason Campbell, OAK, 16

Team B
Adrian Peterson, MIN, 1
Brandon Marshall, MIA, 2
DeAngelo Williams, CAR, 3
Jermichael Finley, GB, 4
Justin Forsett, SEA, 5
Dez Bryant, DAL, 6
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG, 7
Derrick Mason, BAL, 8
Eli Manning, NYG, 9
Donovan McNabb, WAS, 10
Mike Williams, TB, 11
Willis McGahee, BAL, 12
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN, 13
Julian Edelman, NE, 14
Matt Cassel, KC, 15
Neil Rackers, 16,

Team C
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, 1
Shonn Greene, NYJ, 2
Steve Smith, CAR, 3
Michael Crabtree, SF, 4
Jahvid Best, DET, 5
Brett Favre, MIN, 6
Clinton Portis, WAS, 7
Kevin Kolb, PHI, 8
Thomas Jones, KC, 9
Devin Aromashodu, CHI, 10
Jacoby Jones, HOU, 11
San Diego Chargers, SD, 12
Dexter McCluster, KC, 13
Miami Dolphins, MIA, 14
Jermain Gresham, 15
Legedu Naanee, 16,

Team D
Ray Rice, BAL, 1
Tom Brady, NE, 2
Anquan Boldin, BAL, 3
Donald Driver, GB, 4
Kellen Winslow, TB, 5
Pierre Garcon, IND, 6
Ricky Williams, MIA, 7
Brandon Jacobs, NYG, 8
LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ, 9
Baltimore Ravens, BAL, 10
Nate Kaeding, SD, 11
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ, 12
David Garrard, JAC, 13
Early Doucet, ARI, 14
Marshawn Lynch, BUF, 15
Heath Miller, PIT, 16,

Team E
Steven Jackson, STL, 1
Calvin Johnson, DET, 2
Marques Colston, NO, 3
Dallas Clark, IND, 4
Wes Welker, NE, 5
Steve Breaston, ARI, 6
Cadillac Williams, TB, 7
Jerome Harrison, CLE, 8
San Francisco 49ers, SF, 9
Carson Palmer, CIN, 10
Eddie Royal, DEN, 11
Dallas Cowboys, DAL, 12
Anthony Gonzalez, IND, 13
Chris Chambers, KC, 14
Jeremy Shockey, NO, 15
Arrelious Benn, TB, 16,

Team F
Drew Brees, NO, 1
Roddy White, ATL, 2
Cedric Benson, CIN, 3
Vernon Davis, SF, 4
Ronnie Brown, MIA, 5
Mike Wallace, PIT, 6
Santana Moss, WAS, 7
Johnny Knox, CHI, 8
Steve Slaton, HOU, 9
Minnesota Vikings, MIN, 10
Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 11
Louis Murphy, OAK, 12
Javon Ringer, TEN, 13
Sam Bradford, STL, 14
Brandon Jackson, GB, 15
Tim tebow, 16,

Team G
Andre Johnson, HOU, 1
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT, 2
Matt Schaub, HOU, 3
Beanie Wells, ARI, 4
Mike Sims-Walker, JAC, 5
Brent Celek, PHI, 6
Donald Brown, IND, 7
Lee Evans, BUF, 8
New York Jets, NYJ, 9
Santonio Holmes, NYJ, 10
Demaryius Thomas, DEN, 11
Leon Washington, SEA, 12
Kevin Smith, DET, 13
James Jones, GB, 14
Davone Bess, MIA, 15
Bernard Scott, CIN, 16,

Team H
Michael Turner, ATL, 1
Ryan Mathews, SD, 2
Tony Romo, DAL, 3
Steve Smith, NYG, 4
Dwayne Bowe, KC, 5
Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 6
Terrell Owens, CIN, 7
Michael Bush, OAK, 8
Bernard Berrian, MIN, 9
Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE, 10
Nate Washington, TEN, 11
Chad Henne, MIA, 12
Fred Taylor, NE, 13
Jason Snelling, ATL, 14
Ryan Longwell, MIN, 15
New York Giants, NYG, 16,

Team I
Aaron Rodgers, GB, 1
Miles Austin, DAL, 2
Pierre Thomas, NO, 3
Joseph Addai, IND, 4
Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 5
Percy Harvin, MIN, 6
Marion Barber, DAL, 7
Malcom Floyd, SD, 8
Fred Jackson, BUF, 9
Zach Miller, OAK, 10
Darren Sproles, SD, 11
Mason Crosby, GB, 12
Greg Camarillo, MIN, 13
Alex Smith, SF, 14
Kareem Huggins, TB, 15
Arizona Cardinals, ARI, 16,

Team J
Frank Gore, SF, 1
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 2
Jonathan Stewart, CAR, 3
Antonio Gates, SD, 4
Knowshon Moreno, DEN, 5
Jay Cutler, CHI, 6
Vincent Jackson, SD, 7
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA, 8
Reggie Bush, NO, 9
Braylon Edwards, NYJ, 10
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT, 11
Vince Young, TEN, 12
Devin Hester, CHI, 13
Greg Olsen, CHI, 14
David Akers, PHI, 15
Anthony Dixon, SF, 16,

Team K
Randy Moss, NE, 1
Reggie Wayne, IND, 2
Chad Ochocinco, CIN, 3
Jamaal Charles, KC, 4
Jason Witten, DAL, 5
C.J. Spiller, BUF, 6
Montario Hardesty, CLE, 7
Joe Flacco, BAL, 8
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 9
Darren McFadden, OAK, 10
Matthew Stafford, DET, 11
Laurence Maroney, NE, 12
Devery Henderson, NO, 13
New Orleans Saints, NO, 14
Matt Prater, DEN, 15
John Carlson, SEA, 16,

Team L
Peyton Manning, IND, 1
DeSean Jackson, PHI, 2
Sidney Rice, MIN, 3
Ryan Grant, GB, 4
Felix Jones, DAL, 5
Matt Forte, CHI, 6
Robert Meachem, NO, 7
Tim Hightower, ARI, 8
Matt Ryan, ATL, 9
Green Bay Packers, GB, 10
Chris Cooley, WAS, 11
Garrett Hartley, NO, 12
Austin Collie, IND, 13
Chaz Schilens, OAK, 14
Laurent Robinson, STL, 15
James Starks, GB, 16

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

A, F, G.

[jayhawk]

A, F, G.

Also like I

[3rookie]

I like G,H,I

[SamTheEagle]

How long until Percy Harvin's head splits open and his brain makes a getaway?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Also like I

Team I
Aaron Rodgers, GB, 1
Miles Austin, DAL, 2
Pierre Thomas, NO, 3
Joseph Addai, IND, 4
Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 5
Percy Harvin, MIN, 6
Marion Barber, DAL, 7
Malcom Floyd, SD, 8
Fred Jackson, BUF, 9
Zach Miller, OAK, 10
Darren Sproles, SD, 11
Mason Crosby, GB, 12
Greg Camarillo, MIN, 13
Alex Smith, SF, 14
Kareem Huggins, TB, 15
Arizona Cardinals, ARI, 16,

Love Rodgers, obviously, not nearly as high on Miles as everyone else is, not thrilled with Addai or Barber. Meh.

[JustASix]

I wishI could say I like my own team a lot but I just don't. I think it is decent (team J) but I kept just missing on the guys I wanted to fit my strategy. If I had gotten Romo or Shaub at the end of the 3rd I would feel a lot better about my team.
Overall I think the league is very balanced with no clear favorite.

[dlwktb]

I really like my team, but I don't love it. I don't have a high end reciever and my RB depth is lacking. If my RBs stay healthy and I hit on a WR or two, I like my chances, though.

[JustASix]

I really like my team, but I don't love it. I don't have a high end reciever and my RB depth is lacking. If my RBs stay healthy and I hit on a WR or two, I like my chances, though.
That seems to be the story of our league this year. Just about everyone will have a chance to win if one or two things work out. No one has a perfect team, everyone has a weakness or two.

[BallaActuary]

I have the best team...























for the 2011 season

[billyinvegas]

I like H & I the most by a decent amount.

[MountainHawk]

I have the best team...























for the 2011 season
That'll suck if there is none.

[BallaActuary]

That'll suck if there is none.

Not if we convert to fantasy basketball. That's why I took Brandon Marshall in the 2nd.

[JustASix]

Not if we convert to fantasy basketball. That's why I took Brandon Marshall in the 2nd.
I think Derrick Mason and Donovan McNabb are primed for breakout seasons. Clearly their best days are ahead of them.

But yeah, you do have to good young players. Let's hope this version of the next great GB TE works out better than the last 5.

[Doc Holiday]

Im about to draft in a keeper league (no PPR) where I have AP (round 1), MJD (round 2) and Megatron (round 4). Do you think going after Romo in round 3 is a good idea? I dont think there will be a tier QB left by the time my next pick in round 5, but round 3 may be too high.

[jayhawk]

Team I
Aaron Rodgers, GB, 1
Miles Austin, DAL, 2
Pierre Thomas, NO, 3
Joseph Addai, IND, 4
Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 5
Percy Harvin, MIN, 6
Marion Barber, DAL, 7
Malcom Floyd, SD, 8
Fred Jackson, BUF, 9
Zach Miller, OAK, 10
Darren Sproles, SD, 11
Mason Crosby, GB, 12
Greg Camarillo, MIN, 13
Alex Smith, SF, 14
Kareem Huggins, TB, 15
Arizona Cardinals, ARI, 16,

Love Rodgers, obviously, not nearly as high on Miles as everyone else is, not thrilled with Addai or Barber. Meh.

Has top QB, and Thomas + 1 RB out of Barber/Addai/Jackson is fine
WR have a lot of upside, and anchored by Austin. I am pretty high on Nicks and Floyd. I also think Z Miller is going to have a top 5 TE season. If rogers has a 40 TD year, which I think is possible, this team will compete.

[dlwktb]

Im about to draft in a keeper league (no PPR) where I have AP (round 1), MJD (round 2) and Megatron (round 4). Do you think going after Romo in round 3 is a good idea? I dont think there will be a tier QB left by the time my next pick in round 5, but round 3 may be too high.

I'd go for it. Romo could have a huge season. And I think his floor is still decently high. He's not Rogers or Brees, but I'd put him in the next tier.

[AL THE LAB]

Im about to draft in a keeper league (no PPR) where I have AP (round 1), MJD (round 2) and Megatron (round 4). Do you think going after Romo in round 3 is a good idea? I dont think there will be a tier QB left by the time my next pick in round 5, but round 3 may be too high.

What other QBs will be available?

[SamTheEagle]

I wishI could say I like my own team a lot but I just don't. I think it is decent (team J) but I kept just missing on the guys I wanted to fit my strategy. If I had gotten Romo or Shaub at the end of the 3rd I would feel a lot better about my team.
Overall I think the league is very balanced with no clear favorite.

I take it you have Vincent Jackson because you're planning on having him as a keeper for next year?

[MountainHawk]

10 team redraft. 6 pt qb td no ppr

QB: Kolb EManning Leinhart
RB: Rice Forte RBrown Ward
WR: Jennings SSmithNY Breaston DHenderson Gaffney HWard
TE: TGonzalez
D:Ravens
K: Vinatieri


Thoughts?

[JollyGoodFCAS]

My team:

QB: Romo, Leinart
RB: DWilliams, Forte, MBush, KSmith, Westbrook
WR: Fitzgerald, Harvin, SMoss, Aromashodu, Chambers, AGonzalez
TE: Celek
D: Cowboys
K: Gould

I'm confident with Romo and Celek, not so sure about others. There were some guys deeper in the draft I had my eye on but they got snatched up. I was hoping I could sneak in Jabar Gafney in the last round but the guy right before me took him. So I took Anthony Gonzalez instead, hoping maybe he can win back his starting role at some point.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

10 team redraft. 6 pt qb td no ppr

QB: Kolb EManning Leinhart
RB: Rice Forte RBrown Ward
WR: Jennings SSmithNY Breaston DHenderson Gaffney
TE: TGonzalez
D:Ravens
K: Vinatieri


Thoughts?

Not sure I would keep 3 QB's but one of them should pan out. I picked Forte, will be hit or miss with him. RBrown will be good as long as he can stay healthy. Gaffney is a good sleeper pick (see my post), Breaston could do well too though he'll get competition from Doucet.

[MountainHawk]

Only took Leinhart due a soft matchup in wk 8 when the other two guys are on bye. Might drop him anyway

[BallaActuary]

Only took Leinhart due a soft matchup in wk 8 when the other two guys are on bye. Might drop him anyway

That's looking too far ahead...I'd pick up Anderson instead if you are keying in on that game

[BallaActuary]

My team:

QB: Romo, Leinart
RB: DWilliams, Forte, MBush, KSmith, Westbrook
WR: Fitzgerald, Harvin, SMoss, Aromashodu, Chambers, AGonzalez
TE: Celek
D: Cowboys
K: Gould

I'm confident with Romo and Celek, not so sure about others. There were some guys deeper in the draft I had my eye on but they got snatched up. I was hoping I could sneak in Jabar Gafney in the last round but the guy right before me took him. So I took Anthony Gonzalez instead, hoping maybe he can win back his starting role at some point.

Not crazy about your squad...

[SamTheEagle]

Rate my team, I was pick 10 out of 12:

1QB
2RB
2WR
1WR/TE Flex
1TE
1DEF
1K
6 Bench

10 rec/rush yards per point, 25 passing yards per point, 6 points for TDs, no points for receptions

Rashard Mendenhall
Drew Brees
Jamaal Charles
Michael Crabtree
Jonathan Stewart
Santana Moss
Dez Bryant
Zach Miller
Heath Miller
Lee Evans
Jabar Gaffney
Ben Roethlisberger
Bernard Berrian
Indianapolis Def
Mike Williams (rookie TB wide receiver)

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Love it ste

[SamTheEagle]

I about creamed myself when Drew Brees was still there in second round.

[SamTheEagle]

Boom. My team just got better. My brother dropped Jermichael Finley. Don't ask me why, I don't understand the things he does. I'm dropping Heath Miller and I'm all over that shit.

[SamTheEagle]

Now, I guess I have no right to criticize, given that he won the whole damned thing last year, but dropping Finley for Fred David is just ****ing asinine.


He's such a lucky prick, too. The person with the number 3 pick took Aaron Rodgers, dropping Maurice Jones-Drew right into his lap.

[Force of Interest]

I have my draft tonight. 12 team league, PPR. Everyone kept a player and a rookie from last year. I have the 11th pick with Randy Moss and Justin Forsett on my roster. Probably looking to assemble the greatest WR trio of all time in the 1st and 2nd round since all the good rbs will be gone.

[MountainHawk]

10 team redraft. 6 pt qb td no ppr

QB: Kolb EManning Leinhart
RB: Rice Forte RBrown Ward
WR: Jennings SSmithNY Breaston DHenderson Gaffney
TE: TGonzalez
D:Ravens
K: Vinatieri


Thoughts?

Somehow forgot HWard for Wr as well.

[Force of Interest]

Somehow forgot HWard for Wr as well.
And I forgot DWard existed. I like your team. Especially if Gaffney becomes a reliable 3 (and even better if you only start 2 WR)

[MountainHawk]

And I forgot DWard existed. I like your team. Especially if Gaffney becomes a reliable 3 (and even better if you only start 2 WR)
1 QB 2RB 2WR 1Flex TE/D/K

[BallaActuary]

Boom. My team just got better. My brother dropped Jermichael Finley. Don't ask me why, I don't understand the things he does. I'm dropping Heath Miller and I'm all over that shit.

Free league?

[BallaActuary]

Now, I guess I have no right to criticize, given that he won the whole damned thing last year, but dropping Finley for Fred David is just ****ing asinine.


He's such a lucky prick, too. The person with the number 3 pick took Aaron Rodgers, dropping Maurice Jones-Drew right into his lap.

There are questions about whether MJD had minor knee surgery this past week and he really faded in the 2nd half of last year. I'm staying away from using a 1st round pick on him this year

[Mind if I do a J?]

I about creamed myself when Drew Brees was still there in second round.
He's such a lucky prick, too. The person with the number 3 pick took Aaron Rodgers, dropping Maurice Jones-Drew right into his lap.
If the scoring you listed is correct, the number 3 picker is a very smart person. 6 points for all TDs, including passing, in a non-PPR is an absolutely retarded method of scoring, and getting a top tier QB trumps all other scoring measures by a ridiculous margin. You were very lucky to get Brees in the 2nd round.

I'm in a league with 6 pt. passing TDs, and year after year I use my first round pick on a top 2 QB, and year after year I win the league (most points that is, if I ignore the crapshoot that is the playoffs :) ). It has very little to do with my other players. The league is going on its 5th year and all the members remain ignorant to how important a QB is. It totally baffles me. Do they not see the weekly scores?

Regardless, with Brees + the other guys you got, this is easily the best team that's been posted in this thread. :tup:

[BallaActuary]

I was hoping for the 5th or 6th pick this year in my redraft...got 7th. I REALLY need Turner or Gore to fall to me.

[BallaActuary]

ugh

[MountainHawk]

I know mock drafts are not the same, but why can't real auction drafts ever go like this for me:

QB: PManning / Roethlisberger
RB: CJohnson LMcCoy M Forte(Flex) / Buckhalter Hardesty
WR: RMoss RWayne / Massaquoi Collie MWilliams GTate
TE: ZMiller
K : Akers
D : Browns

[SamTheEagle]

If the scoring you listed is correct, the number 3 picker is a very smart person. 6 points for all TDs, including passing, in a non-PPR is an absolutely retarded method of scoring, and getting a top tier QB trumps all other scoring measures by a ridiculous margin. You were very lucky to get Brees in the 2nd round.

I'm in a league with 6 pt. passing TDs, and year after year I use my first round pick on a top 2 QB, and year after year I win the league (most points that is, if I ignore the crapshoot that is the playoffs :) ). It has very little to do with my other players. The league is going on its 5th year and all the members remain ignorant to how important a QB is. It totally baffles me. Do they not see the weekly scores?

Regardless, with Brees + the other guys you got, this is easily the best team that's been posted in this thread. :tup:

Meh, I agree that a high scoring QB is important, but the dropoff from top tier RBs to next tier RBs is much greater than that from top tier QBs to next tier QBs.

Oh, and the scoring used to be a lot more retarded. In the past, they also gave a point per completion, but not reception. Basically the QB used to outscore the entire rest of the team.

[SamTheEagle]

Free league?

Yeah, free league. It's with our church, and we're Methodists, so, yeah, no gambling.

[SamTheEagle]

I keep seeing the word "redraft" pop up this year, and don't recall seeing it in past years. What's that all about?

[MountainHawk]

I keep seeing the word "redraft" pop up this year, and don't recall seeing it in past years. What's that all about?
redraft = no keepers.

[rawl316]

Had my first draft this year (auction). We have a flex. Don't love my squad

QB: Big Ben ($6), Kyle Orton (1)
RB: CJ (60), Charles (23), Portis (13), Lynch (2), Bernard Scott (4)
WR: Colston (25), Steve Smith NYG (25), Wes Welker (19)
TE: Gates (17)
K: Tynes (1)
D: Cowboys (1)

WR's were going for a lot more than I anticipated and I kept letting them go. So I had to bid high on Steve Smith/Welker.

[SamTheEagle]

redraft = no keepers.

Ah, okay. That's what I was thinking.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I don't hate your team. If orton can bridge to rapist, you could do very well

[SamTheEagle]

I don't hate your team. If orton can bridge to rapist, you could do very well

:iatp: Team looks solid to me. Orton could definitely pull off a few solid games on his own, too.

[SamTheEagle]

If the scoring you listed is correct, the number 3 picker is a very smart person. 6 points for all TDs, including passing, in a non-PPR is an absolutely retarded method of scoring, and getting a top tier QB trumps all other scoring measures by a ridiculous margin. You were very lucky to get Brees in the 2nd round.

I'm in a league with 6 pt. passing TDs, and year after year I use my first round pick on a top 2 QB, and year after year I win the league (most points that is, if I ignore the crapshoot that is the playoffs :) ). It has very little to do with my other players. The league is going on its 5th year and all the members remain ignorant to how important a QB is. It totally baffles me. Do they not see the weekly scores?

Regardless, with Brees + the other guys you got, this is easily the best team that's been posted in this thread. :tup:

Meh, I agree that a high scoring QB is important, but the dropoff from top tier RBs to next tier RBs is much greater than that from top tier QBs to next tier QBs.

Oh, and the scoring used to be a lot more retarded. In the past, they also gave a point per completion, but not reception. Basically the QB used to outscore the entire rest of the team.

Just did a quick check. The difference in our league between the #1 and #12 running back last year was 175 points. The difference between the #1 and #12 QB was only 105.

[rawl316]

I'm missing 1 player, I can't think of him. obv not really impact player.

[Mind if I do a J?]

Just did a quick check. The difference in our league between the #1 and #12 running back last year was 175 points. The difference between the #1 and #12 QB was only 105.
I imagine that's because Chris Johnson outscored all other RBs by a bajillion -- looking at just the 1 and 12 will skew the results.

All this being said, if I get the 3 pick in my 6 pt TD league, I might go MJD too. I might even take Rice at #4 before I move to getting Brees or Rodgers. There are still 5 great QBs in the league + 2 more who could come close, whereas there are only three true "stud" RBs.

[Force of Interest]

What 3 rbs? I think johnson, rice, mjd, and ap are all studs.

2 extra points per passing TD wouldn't really make me change my strategy that much.

[Mind if I do a J?]

What 3 rbs? I think johnson, rice, mjd, and ap are all studs.

2 extra points per passing TD wouldn't really make me change my strategy that much.
Like most people, I have Tier 1 = Chris Johnson / Adrian Peterson, Tier 2 = MJD, Tier 3 = Ray Rice. With the benefit of the last few weeks time, I think it's becoming clear that it goes in that order, and that AP over CJ is no longer an option. I know a lot of people that was never an option anyway.

Ray Rice isn't quite the guarantee that the other three are, due to questions about how much McGahee will be used, how many goal line carries Rice will get, and if he'll lose any receptions with the addition of Boldin. He's still great obviously, but I don't think he's the definite Awesome-o 3000 that the other three are.

Regarding the 2 extra points per TD, seeing the different treatment between Matthew Berry and Christoper Harris on ESPN was interesting. Last year Barry said that in a league like that, the top 2 QBs should go in the top 4 overall spots. Harris said the "rising tide lifts all boats" and that it shouldn't change the draft strategy at all. I think the answer lies in the middle, leaning closer to Berry's side. Yes, all boats are lifted, but they aren't lifted equally.

[MountainHawk]

Like most people, I have Tier 1 = Chris Johnson / Adrian Peterson, Tier 2 = MJD, Tier 3 = Ray Rice. With the benefit of the last few weeks time, I think it's becoming clear that it goes in that order, and that AP over CJ is no longer an option. I know a lot of people that was never an option anyway.

Ray Rice isn't quite the guarantee that the other three are, due to questions about how much McGahee will be used, how many goal line carries Rice will get, and if he'll lose any receptions with the addition of Boldin. He's still great obviously, but I don't think he's the definite Awesome-o 3000 that the other three are.

Regarding the 2 extra points per TD, seeing the different treatment between Matthew Berry and Christoper Harris on ESPN was interesting. Last year Barry said that in a league like that, the top 2 QBs should go in the top 4 overall spots. Harris said the "rising tide lifts all boats" and that it shouldn't change the draft strategy at all. I think the answer lies in the middle, leaning closer to Berry's side. Yes, all boats are lifted, but they aren't lifted equally.
It really spreads out the QBs into ones that pass a ton in the red zone and ones whose teams that are balanced in the red zone.

[BingBoing]

Just got down with my last draft for the season. I'm very happy with it. Standard scoring 12 team league - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1,1,1

QB - P. Manning
RB - Peterson, Charles, Harrison, Forsett
WR - C. Johnson, Welker, Bowe, Massaquio, Floyd, M. Williams (TB), V. Jackson
TE - Cooley
K - Hartley
Def - Dallas


I was surprised Peyton fell to me at the end of the second.

[BingBoing]

Also, I had the first pick, I took Peterson over Johnson at the last second, but I'm still happy with it.

[Force of Interest]

Like most people, I have Tier 1 = Chris Johnson / Adrian Peterson, Tier 2 = MJD, Tier 3 = Ray Rice. With the benefit of the last few weeks time, I think it's becoming clear that it goes in that order, and that AP over CJ is no longer an option. I know a lot of people that was never an option anyway.

Ray Rice isn't quite the guarantee that the other three are, due to questions about how much McGahee will be used, how many goal line carries Rice will get, and if he'll lose any receptions with the addition of Boldin. He's still great obviously, but I don't think he's the definite Awesome-o 3000 that the other three are.

Regarding the 2 extra points per TD, seeing the different treatment between Matthew Berry and Christoper Harris on ESPN was interesting. Last year Barry said that in a league like that, the top 2 QBs should go in the top 4 overall spots. Harris said the "rising tide lifts all boats" and that it shouldn't change the draft strategy at all. I think the answer lies in the middle, leaning closer to Berry's side. Yes, all boats are lifted, but they aren't lifted equally.
I agree with all this. I've been playing in a league that really rewards yards for so long that i forget rice is not as good in the standard 20 yards per point. The other guys should be set to score a lot of TDs.

I'm with you on the qb thing. I think there are 7 qbs that could all pretty much do just as well though. There is a little luck involved with passing TDs. I guess Rodgers and Brees are locks for 30+ but I wouldn't go much higher on a qb than i normally would.

[MountainHawk]

I don't think Rice is "Tier 3".

MJD and AP have significant injury concerns to me. If AP and MJD stay healthy, they'll have more points than Rice more than likely. But the odds of losing AP or MJD for 4-6 weeks at some point seems higher than losing Rice for 4-6 weeks.

[SamTheEagle]

I imagine that's because Chris Johnson outscored all other RBs by a bajillion -- looking at just the 1 and 12 will skew the results.

All this being said, if I get the 3 pick in my 6 pt TD league, I might go MJD too. I might even take Rice at #4 before I move to getting Brees or Rodgers. There are still 5 great QBs in the league + 2 more who could come close, whereas there are only three true "stud" RBs.

It was a quick look, I think if you go more detailed you see the same thing, RBs more spread out and QBs clumped more together. What you're saying is basically all I meant.

[SamTheEagle]

Regarding the 2 extra points per TD, seeing the different treatment between Matthew Berry and Christoper Harris on ESPN was interesting. Last year Barry said that in a league like that, the top 2 QBs should go in the top 4 overall spots. Harris said the "rising tide lifts all boats" and that it shouldn't change the draft strategy at all. I think the answer lies in the middle, leaning closer to Berry's side. Yes, all boats are lifted, but they aren't lifted equally.

Agree with this.

[SamTheEagle]

It really spreads out the QBs into ones that pass a ton in the red zone and ones whose teams that are balanced in the red zone.

Yeah, I could see going from 4 to 6 actually changing the order of QBs around a bit. Haven't looked deep enough into it to know, but I bet there are some with less yards but more TDs than others.

[Mind if I do a J?]

I don't think Rice is "Tier 3".

MJD and AP have significant injury concerns to me. If AP and MJD stay healthy, they'll have more points than Rice more than likely. But the odds of losing AP or MJD for 4-6 weeks at some point seems higher than losing Rice for 4-6 weeks.
But Ray Rice is only 5'8"

ETA: In all seriousness, I don't look at propensity for injury for any players, and I probably should.

[SamTheEagle]

Alright, check out this team and weep. 8th pick out of 12, snake draft. My buddy couldn't make his draft today, so I did it for him, and it's a PPR league. 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 K, 1 point per reception, 6 for all TDs, 10 rec/rush yards per point, 25 passing yards per point:


Ray Rice
Reggie Wayne
Roddie White
LeSean McCoy
Antonio Gates
Percy Harvin
Jahvid Best
Eli Manning
Ronnie Brown
Austin Collie
Mario Manningham
Jerricho Cotchery
NYG Defense
Josh Freeman
Arizona Cardinals


Just realized I picked 2 Indianapolis Wide Receivers, but he'll manage. Wasn't crazy about the Josh Freeman pick, but my buddy had his ranked high, so I went with it.

[MountainHawk]

But Ray Rice is only 5'8"

ETA: In all seriousness, I don't look at propensity for injury for any players, and I probably should.
I use KUBIAK a lot, and they penalize for injury risk (not much - 5% or 10%) and they give a bonus for a soft schedule for weeks 14,15,16 (ie fantasy playoff weeks).

[donny5k]

1-7 and 9th round picks are great, the others I don't like. Definitely fell nicely for the Ray Rice and Roddy White picks especially. Best in rd 7 and Ronnie Brown in round 9 are great value too. But those late WRs and both D's suck. And Freeman should go undrafted in a 12 team league. If Eli was best available I would've drafted him and then an upside guy like Stafford or Henne. Eli has no upside (but a pretty good floor).

[SamTheEagle]

1-7 and 9th round picks are great, the others I don't like. Definitely fell nicely for the Ray Rice and Roddy White picks especially. Best in rd 7 and Ronnie Brown in round 9 are great value too. But those late WRs and both D's suck. And Freeman should go undrafted in a 12 team league. If Eli was best available I would've drafted him and then an upside guy like Stafford or Henne. Eli has no upside (but a pretty good floor).

Defenses were best available at the time, really. Most of the other guys had already picked defenses in like round 8, which I wasn't going to do. QBs also went ridiculously early, with a good 6 or so taken in the first 2 rounds. There really wasn't much in the QB department left by round 8. I think even Henne was gone by then.

[donny5k]

Defenses were best available at the time, really. Most of the other guys had already picked defenses in like round 8, which I wasn't going to do. QBs also went ridiculously early, with a good 6 or so taken in the first 2 rounds. There really wasn't much in the QB department left by round 8. I think even Henne was gone by then.
This explains why Ronnie Brown was there in rd. 9.

[SamTheEagle]

This explains why Ronnie Brown was there in rd. 9.

Indeed. I'm happy with the tradeoffs. Plenty of trade bait material there, too, if he wants to upgrade QB or DEF.

[BallaActuary]

I don't know what to think
pick 7 of 12, non-PPR/4 pts passing TD

1.07 Andre Johnson, WR, Hou
2.06 Steven Jackson, RB, Stl
3.07 Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
4.06 Steve Smith, WR, Car
5.07 CJ Spiller, RB, Buf
6.06 Felix Jones, RB, Dal
7.07 Clinton Portis, RB, Was
8.06 Joe Flacco, QB, Bal
9.07 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
10.06 Mike Williams, WR, TB
11.07 Jabar Gaffney, WR, Den
12.06 Matthew Stafford, QB, Det
13.07 Sidney Rice, WR, Min
14.06 Heath Miller, TE, Pit
15.07 Cincy Def
16.06 David Akers, K, Phi


usually I love my team coming out of the draft but I just didn't feel it this year :shrug:

I think Sidney will be back before week 9.

The guy with the 6th spot kept taking my picks and I like his team...one spot can make a big difference I guess.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Stop. Doing. Snake. Drafts.

Christ.

[Force of Interest]

I have my draft tonight. 12 team league, PPR. Everyone kept a player and a rookie from last year. I have the 11th pick with Randy Moss and Justin Forsett on my roster. Probably looking to assemble the greatest WR trio of all time in the 1st and 2nd round since all the good rbs will be gone.
QB Kolb
WRs Moss, Marshall, Crabtree
RBs Charles, Bradshaw
TE Finley
W/R Forsett
DEF CIN

Bench:
QB Roethlisberger
WR: Gaffney, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, Javon Walker (lol), Brandon LaFell
RB: Portis, Donald Brown, Kareem Huggins
TE: Gresham

we have 3 IDPs too but i took garbage ones late so i could get the depth and upside i wanted out of my bench. Non-Willis IDPs are pretty much interchangeable.

[MountainHawk]

Stop. Doing. Snake. Drafts.

Christ.
If the choice is snake or nothing, most would choose snake.

[SamTheEagle]

Stop. Doing. Snake. Drafts.

Christ.

?

[the BS method]

QB Peyton Manning
RB Knowshon Moreno
RB Clinton Portis
RB/WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Reggie Wayne
WR DeSean Jackson
TE Chris Cooley
D/ST Cowboys D/ST
K Garrett Hartley
BE Reggie Bush
BE Hakeem Nicks
BE Thomas Jones
BE Ben Roethlisberger
BE Todd Heap
BE Larry Johnson
BE Mark Clayton


i wanted the manning/wayne hookup bad. i want the extra variance. im not sure FF is much different than any other gambling.

zoidberg, why don't you like snake drafts? picking 12th would be rough imo

[rawl316]

Snake drafts are very boring to me. Any schmo can print off a top 200 list and not screw it up.

[rawl316]

If the choice is snake or nothing, most would choose snake.

I prefer nothing. Dropped 2 leagues cause I'm bored of snakes.

[MountainHawk]

I prefer nothing. Dropped 2 leagues cause I'm bored of snakes.
I've been in one league for 15 seasons now. It took me 3 years to convince them all to move to a keeper league. Auction drafts will take me until at least 2015 or so. :)

[SamTheEagle]

I prefer nothing. Dropped 2 leagues cause I'm bored of snakes.

The alternative being auction drafts, then, if you're not in a keeper league?

[MountainHawk]

The alternative being auction drafts, then, if you're not in a keeper league?
There are auction drafts in keeper leagues too.

Auction drafts take more preseasonskill, so people who percieve they have an advantage there prefer them. Snake drafts take more in-season management skills, though.

[rawl316]

The alternative being auction drafts, then, if you're not in a keeper league?

Keeper snakes aren't exciting to me either. If someone luck boxed their way into ap, they dominate the league for years.

I've been doing auction keeper leagues fr 8 years now.

[rawl316]

Snake drafts take more in-season management skills, though.

Disagree. Our free agents pickups are also based on bids, so your cap needs to be managed all season.

[jayhawk]

Regarding the 2 extra points per TD, seeing the different treatment between Matthew Berry and Christoper Harris on ESPN was interesting. Last year Barry said that in a league like that, the top 2 QBs should go in the top 4 overall spots. Harris said the "rising tide lifts all boats" and that it shouldn't change the draft strategy at all. I think the answer lies in the middle, leaning closer to Berry's side. Yes, all boats are lifted, but they aren't lifted equally.

In my league it is 6 points/all td's, but qbs are 1/30 yds, wr are 1/15 yds and rb are 1/20 yds. I had the 3rd pick and took brees (also bonus points for 5 completions, 3 rec and 10 rush att). By the time it came back to me (10 team league), 8 qb's were taken. Only picks 1/2 did not have a qb after round 2. The 1 pnt/20 yards rushing/receiving for rb's makes a huge difference in the drop-off, so the qb is the no-brainer. Been taking a qb in round 1 in that league for 5 years now, and have been top 3 in scoring all 5 years (this is the first year more than 3 qb's were gone by round 3). I guess everyone is catching on.

[the BS method]

ah, ok auction leagues. popularity for them seems to be on the rise. i thought people were talking about changing the drafting order from snake to ... uh, left to right.

the auction thing seems interesting.

[SamTheEagle]

For an auction league, you need everyone to participate, right? Couldn't get by with having a couple people letting the computer do the picking for them I assume.

[MountainHawk]

For an auction league, you need everyone to participate, right? Couldn't get by with having a couple people letting the computer do the picking for them I assume.
You can, but their team generally blows.

[Big Pete]

For an auction league, you need everyone to participate, right? Couldn't get by with having a couple people letting the computer do the picking for them I assume.

Not true. Prior to the auction, each team manager can assign a max bid value, with the system likely having a default value, for each player. The system can then bid for any absent manager based on that person's maximums and unfilled positions.

[SamTheEagle]

Not true. Prior to the auction, each team manager can assign a max bid value, with the system likely having a default value, for each player. The system can then bid for any absent manager based on that person's maximums and unfilled positions.

Hmm. Interesting.

[Big Pete]

You can, but their team generally blows.

I had to miss an NL-only baseball auction this year; currently in and have been in first most of the season and shouldn't finish lower than 2nd. I adjusted the max bid on players I thought would perform differently than the default values and landed a very strong team.

In some ways, it was probably good that I wasn;t there to get knocked off my strategy by a particular bid or two. However, I did miss out on certain ways the auction flowed - like closer values - which I believe is the biggest drawback to not being there.

[Mr. Grim]

I have the number one pick, who should I pick? I know RB's usually go first, any reasons to pick a WR?

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

No

[BallaActuary]

Stop. Doing. Snake. Drafts.

Christ.

I did a auction startup keeper this weekend too. It was quite possibly the most boring thing I have ever done in my life.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I did a auction startup keeper this weekend too. It was quite possibly the most boring thing I have ever done in my life.

Then you're doing it with the wrong people. I'm sure a snake draft would have been absolutely riveting with those folks.

Snake drafts give huge bonuses to those who get the first few picks. Turbl.

[Force of Interest]

Then you're doing it with the wrong people. I'm sure a snake draft would have been absolutely riveting with those folks.

Snake drafts give huge bonuses to those who get the first few picks. Turbl.
total BS. I had the 11th pick out of 12 with a ton of keepers off the board and mostly residing with teh top picks. My team is easily top 2 in that league.

doesnt matter what pick you have it all comes down to the value you get in each round.

[BallaActuary]

Then you're doing it with the wrong people. I'm sure a snake draft would have been absolutely riveting with those folks.

Snake drafts give huge bonuses to those who get the first few picks. Turbl.

lol, sorry but that sounds like fish talk.

I'm quite certain having a top pick had nothing to do with picking up Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, or Jermone Harrison (playoff stud) last year.


Auctions are stupid when the 2nd pick nominates Nate Kaeding and you sit there for 2 minutes while he goes for $4.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I'm out right now but there are studies that show that the top picks have a build in advantage. Sure you can overcome that with luck or trades or being in a league with donks, but it is what it is.

[JollyGoodFCAS]

total BS. I had the 11th pick out of 12 with a ton of keepers off the board and mostly residing with teh top picks. My team is easily top 2 in that league.

doesnt matter what pick you have it all comes down to the value you get in each round.

True, I picked 11th last year and lucked out with Chris Johnson, made the playoffs. The other 3 playoff contenders were drafting in the top 4 slots, yes they had an advantage in their 1st and 3rd picks, but the difference maker was how they managed the rest of the draft, as well as waiver wire picks.

[rawl316]

I'm out right now but there are studies that show that the top picks have a build in advantage. Sure you can overcome that with luck or trades or being in a league with donks, but it is what it is.

That's my biggest problem with drafts. Sure some people luck into chris Johnson. But the last 3 years, unless you had a top 2 pick, you have no shot at Peterson. Or if you play in a keeper league, the guy who got lucky his rookie year has probably made te playoffs every year since.

I also hate the waiver wire. That is very luck based. Manage your cap and win the free agents by outbidding others.

Balla, you must play with idiots if they are calling out Nate Kaeding that early. It's an unwritten rule in our leagues to call impact players

[MountainHawk]

That's my biggest problem with drafts. Sure some people luck into chris Johnson. But the last 3 years, unless you had a top 2 pick, you have no shot at Peterson. Or if you play in a keeper league, the guy who got lucky his rookie year has probably made te playoffs every year since.

I also hate the waiver wire. That is very luck based. Manage your cap and win the free agents by outbidding others.

Balla, you must play with idiots if they are calling out Nate Kaeding that early. It's an unwritten rule in our leagues to call impact players
So when can you start filling the TE/K/D positions? I agree round 1 is lame, but in the few auctions I've done, some people call out the elites in these positions hoping to get people to spend some cash that they won't be able to use on sleeper RB/WR later.

[3rookie]

So when can you start filling the TE/K/D positions? I agree round 1 is lame, but in the few auctions I've done, some people call out the elites in these positions hoping to get people to spend some cash that they won't be able to use on sleeper RB/WR later.It would also seem that those auctions should close real fast anyway.

[rawl316]

So when can you start filling the TE/K/D positions? I agree round 1 is lame, but in the few auctions I've done, some people call out the elites in these positions hoping to get people to spend some cash that they won't be able to use on sleeper RB/WR later.

They are called pretty close to real drafts. I think gates was round 2. Actually, celek was the first te in round 2 (lots of eagles fans). D's were like 7th or 8th. We're not that strict. Just don't call Johnny Knox in the 2nd and stuff like that. We just want to keep the action going and the $ spending.

[Force of Interest]

There's luck involved in fantasy football? Who knew

[rawl316]

There's luck involved in fantasy football? Who knew

Far more in drafts vs auctions.

[BallaActuary]

I'm out right now but there are studies that show that the top picks have a build in advantage.

You can't be serious

[MooBeay]

12 team auction with normal scoring:
Cutler
C Johnson
Ray Rice
Felix Jones
TJ Hous
Jabar Gafney
Tony G
Cowboys
HOU K

Depth is weak...Kevin Smith, Sproles, Westbrook, and Tate.

[BallaActuary]

Far more in drafts vs auctions.

How so?

Different injuries happen?
Different sleepers emerge?
Different "busts"?

[Get Busy Livin']

Balla, you must play with idiots if they are calling out Nate Kaeding that early. It's an unwritten rule in our leagues to call impact players
I use it as a strategy. I bid $1 for the best kicker, and either

1) I get the best kicker for the minimum, or
2) an idiot bids $2 (which is too much for any kicker)

Either way, profit!

[BallaActuary]

I use it as a strategy. I bid $1 for the best kicker, and either

1) I get the best kicker for the minimum, or
2) an idiot bids $2 (which is too much for any kicker)

Either way, profit!

I understand the strategy, but if I want to d1ck people over for money, I'll go play poker

[rawl316]

How so?

Different injuries happen?
Different sleepers emerge?
Different "busts"?

In your auction draft, everyone had a chance at any player they wanted.

If you want chris Johnson this year (who was 50 points better than the #2 back) you better be lucky enough to pull the ace of spades from the deck.

[JustASix]

You can't be seriousI've seen them. Top 2 picks usually have the highest probability of making the playoffs followed by the last couple picks. Not going to look them up but I have seen the "studies" he is talking about.
btw. I don't think drafts are really inferior to auctions, they are just different. I like to do one (or more) of each every year.

[BallaActuary]

In your auction draft, everyone had a chance at any player they wanted.

If you want chris Johnson this year (who was 50 points better than the #2 back) you better be lucky enough to pull the ace of spades from the deck.

50 points over 16 games... that's 3 points per week. You really think that wins you a league?

Frank Gore and Michael Turner are much better values at their current auction prices and average draft positions. The best spot in a redraft this year is 1.5 and 1.6, not 1.1.

[rawl316]

50 points over 16 games... that's 3 points per week. You really think that wins you a league?

Frank Gore and Michael Turner are much better values at their current auction prices and average draft positions. The best spot in a redraft this year is 1.5 and 1.6, not 1.1.

You are ignoring my point about luck. You have no say in your draft position. You have complete control in spending money and building your team.

[JustASix]

50 points over 16 games... that's 3 points per week. You really think that wins you a league?

Frank Gore and Michael Turner are much better values at their current auction prices and average draft positions. The best spot in a redraft this year is 1.5 and 1.6, not 1.1.
Who would you go with at 1.05? I am not sure I can bring myself to take Gore or Turner and leave AJ on the board.

[MountainHawk]

You are ignoring my point about luck. You have no say in your draft position. You have complete control in spending money and building your team.
In my keeper league, the first round goes in reverse order of finish from the prior year.

[Force of Interest]

In your auction draft, everyone had a chance at any player they wanted.

If you want chris Johnson this year (who was 50 points better than the #2 back) you better be lucky enough to pull the ace of spades from the deck.
If you get tunnel vision/emotionally attached to any pick you have no shot at winning.

[SamTheEagle]

In your auction draft, everyone had a chance at any player they wanted.

If you want chris Johnson this year (who was 50 points better than the #2 back) you better be lucky enough to pull the ace of spades from the deck.

Chris Johnson is pretty damned good, but how often does the #1 back repeat? Nobody expected Chris Johnson to be that good at this point last year, so, no, you didn't need to draw the Ace of Spades to get him last year. The trick is being the one lucky enough to get this year's Chris Johnson.

[BallaActuary]

You are ignoring my point about luck. You have no say in your draft position. You have complete control in spending money and building your team.

I don't understand how I'm lucky if I get the first pick. Explain please.

[rawl316]

Look at how good LT was year after year. He had 6 legit years of dominance. You had no shot at him unless you pulled a top 2 pick.

[SamTheEagle]

Look at how good LT was year after year. He had 6 legit years of dominance. You had no shot at him unless you pulled a top 2 pick.

So? Plenty of people won their leagues without LT.

[BallaActuary]

Who would you go with at 1.05? I am not sure I can bring myself to take Gore or Turner and leave AJ on the board.

Gore's OL and offense are much improved. His schedule is JUICY.

Turner missed games last year because of a high ankle sprain...that's a lot different than breaking a leg or ACL injury. He's lighter and was rested most the 2nd half of last year.

ADP, CJ, and MJD had a lot of touches last year. A LOT. Rice doesn't get goalline TDs.

Between those 2, it's 50/50, but in terms of paper value, I really would have liked one of them.

Gore/Turner + Wayne/White >>>> AJ + whatever 2nd round RB is there

[rawl316]

I don't understand how I'm lucky if I get the first pick. Explain please.

Pulling names out of a hat is not skill. Or if you hate #1 (which i cant see why), then you got unlucky.

[rawl316]

So? Plenty of people won their leagues without LT.

I didn't say anything about winning leagues. They are a 2 week crapshoot.

If you had Tomlinson, you pretty much had a ticket punched to the playoffs.

[BallaActuary]

Look at how good LT was year after year. He had 6 legit years of dominance. You had no shot at him unless you pulled a top 2 pick.

But the same person doesn't get the #1 pick 6 years in row?

[BallaActuary]

I didn't say anything about winning leagues. They are a 2 week crapshoot.

If you had Tomlinson, you pretty much had a ticket punched to the playoffs.

What about last year when he went in the 1st round? Forte owners at 1.4 probably did well, too.

[SamTheEagle]

What about last year when he went in the 1st round? Forte owners at 1.4 probably did well, too.

:iatp:

[BallaActuary]

Pulling names out of a hat is not skill. Or if you hate #1 (which i cant see why), then you got unlucky.

No, but taking Chris Johnson at 1.12 and Ray Rice at 5.12 last year would be.

[rawl316]

I'll let djz link you to the articles. I have read them also.

[rawl316]

No, but taking Chris Johnson at 1.12 and Ray Rice at 5.12 last year would be.

Well, if you had the #1 overall pick last year, you had no shot at chris Johnson.

[BallaActuary]

I'll let djz link you to the articles. I have read them also.

I don't understand how of any professional board in the universe, these articles are being taken seriously.

There is so much skill needed in rounds other than round 1, luck with injuries, and sleeper pickups that these studies are absolutely meaningless.

[BallaActuary]

Well, if you had the #1 overall pick last year, you had no shot at chris Johnson.

Huh?

[Wasp]

If you don't like #1 you can always trade down

[SamTheEagle]

Huh?

I think he's saying there's no way you would have known to take him with 1st pick overall, and he wasn't going to still be around at pick 24.

[SamTheEagle]

If you don't like #1 you can always trade down

Not in my league.

[BallaActuary]

I think he's saying there's no way you would have known to take him with 1st pick overall, and he wasn't going to still be around at pick 24.

So he's saying that the 1st pick isn't all that great every year? Maybe I misunderstood

[rawl316]

I think he's saying there's no way you would have known to take him with 1st pick overall, and he wasn't going to still be around at pick 24.

:tup:

[SamTheEagle]

So he's saying that the 1st pick isn't all that great every year? Maybe I misunderstood

I'm not sure I understand his thesis, to be honest.

[rawl316]

So he's saying that the 1st pick isn't all that great every year? Maybe I misunderstood

No, I'm saying that every owner has an equal opportunity at every player in an auction. You don't get that in drafts.

[BallaActuary]

rawl, did the first pick have a clear advantage over an 11th or 12th pick last year with Ray Rice? I'd say he got more teams to the playoffs (based on his draft position) than drafting ADP first.

[rawl316]

No one is drafting him first in the 5th and he won't be there in the end of the 6th. Not sure i understand your point about how this makes a draft more skillful.

[BallaActuary]

No, I'm saying that every owner has an equal opportunity at every player in an auction. You don't get that in drafts.

There is equal opportunity in snakes to field a winning team.

Avoid key injuries
Pick nice sleepers like Ray Rice
Pick up waiver wire gems like Jamaal Charles

None of thos things has anything to do with the first pick, last pick, or no first round pick.

Any educated FF player can win a league from any spot with those three keys.

[BallaActuary]

No one is drafting him first in the 5th and he won't be there in the end of the 6th. Not sure i understand your point about how this makes a draft more skillful.

lol drafting Ray Rice last year was not a skill?

[Wasp]

Not in my league.

What league doesn't allow trades?

You can still trade the guy you picked which is the same thing.

[rawl316]

lol drafting Ray Rice last year was not a skill?

It was more likely because he fell to you in a draft. In my one league, I had to overpay and outbid 2 other people who were high on him.

I'm obv not going to convince you.

[rawl316]

http://fantasyfunk.wordpress.com/2009/07/20/auction-vs-snake-draft/

[BallaActuary]

It was more likely because he fell to you in a draft. In my one league, I had to overpay and outbid 2 other people who were high on him.

I'm obv not going to convince you.



Yeah, he fell 5 rounds where everyone regardless of first round draft position had EQUAL opportunity to grab him. The same goes for Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, and Ricky Williams and other top 12 RBs that weren't drafted in the 1st round.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

:wall:

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

Balla, if there were 12 equal people in a snake draft (equal info, sleepers, etc.), would you think the guy picking first would be the favorite to win?

[BallaActuary]

It was more likely because he fell to you in a draft. In my one league, I had to overpay and outbid 2 other people who were high on him.

I'm obv not going to convince you.

You come up with some fair way to draft a team from the 1.1 spot and I'll draft from whatever draft spot you want me to. We draft teams based on ADPs (so if you want me to be 1.12, I can't draft ADP or Ray Rice of course...but would pick like Moss and Wayne)

We switch off waiver wires pickups through the season. I'll wager you $/avatar switch/whatever that my team finished with a higher FF points than yours.

[SamTheEagle]

http://fantasyfunk.wordpress.com/2009/07/20/auction-vs-snake-draft/

What does this prove, exactly? The guy likes auction drafts. They sound intriguing and I hope I get to participate in one in the next couple years. This article in no way proves that the number 1 position in a snake draft has a major advantage over everyone else.

[Tyler Durden]

Just because the #12 or #56 pick can easily be the top scorer at the end of the year doesn't matter, the fact it that the average #1 pick is >>>>> the average #12 pick. Think expected value.

[BallaActuary]

Balla, if there were 12 equal people in a snake draft (equal info, sleepers, etc.), would you think the guy picking first would be the favorite to win?

Honestly, no.

There is an incredible amount of RB value this year in the 2nd-7th rounds it's insane.

[SamTheEagle]

You are confusing the fact that because the #12 or #56 pick can easily be the top scorer at the end of the year with the fact that the average #1 pick is >>>>> the average #12 pick. Think expected value.

Sure, if you limit yourself to one round in the draft, I'll completely agree that the #1 pick is usually much better than the #12 pick. Now tell me how the #12 and #13 pick combined compare to the #1 and #24 pick? And then tell me how the 15 players picked by the #1 person compare to the 15 players picked by the #12 person, if the #12 person know what the hell he's doing.

[rawl316]

Sounds intriguing. I'm in if we can match schedules. The big problem is I'm on a 4 day weekend.

So would it be head to head every week or total season points? How much $ is your max? I think the ADP could get tricky in how it is operated.

[rawl316]

What does this prove, exactly? The guy likes auction drafts. They sound intriguing and I hope I get to participate in one in the next couple years. This article in no way proves that the number 1 position in a snake draft has a major advantage over everyone else.

DJZ made the comment about #1, not me. I am saying that auctions require more skill than snake drafts.

[JustASix]

Gore's OL and offense are much improved. His schedule is JUICY.

Turner missed games last year because of a high ankle sprain...that's a lot different than breaking a leg or ACL injury. He's lighter and was rested most the 2nd half of last year.

ADP, CJ, and MJD had a lot of touches last year. A LOT. Rice doesn't get goalline TDs.

Between those 2, it's 50/50, but in terms of paper value, I really would have liked one of them.

Gore/Turner + Wayne/White >>>> AJ + whatever 2nd round RB is thereYou make a really good point. I prefer Gore out of those two probably because I have him in AOFF now. I am going to have to think hard about this.
Here is the real comparison for me.

Gore + Wayne/White + 3rd round WR vs. AJ + Wayne/White + 3rd round RB.

I don't think there is really such a thing as a 2nd round RB this year when some real good ones are going in the 3rd.

[SamTheEagle]

DJZ made the comment about #1, not me. I am saying that auctions require more skill than snake drafts.

Different skill. Not sure about "more" skill. Especially in the mid to late rounds of a snake draft. Sure, I'll concede that the first round or two are basically just check names off of your cheat sheet and pick who comes up next.

[Tyler Durden]

Sure, if you limit yourself to one round in the draft, I'll completely agree that the #1 pick is usually much better than the #12 pick. Now tell me how the #12 and #13 pick combined compare to the #1 and #24 pick? And then tell me how the 15 players picked by the #1 person compare to the 15 players picked by the #12 person, if the #12 person know what the hell he's doing.
Difference between EV(#1) and EV(#12) is much larger than the difference in EV(#13) and EV(#24) and ton larger than EV(#145) compared to EV(#156)

[Get Busy Livin']

I'll let djz link you to the articles. I have read them also.
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k9draftslots

:toth:

[BallaActuary]

Just because the #12 or #56 pick can easily be the top scorer at the end of the year doesn't matter, the fact it that the average #1 pick is >>>>> the average #12 pick. Think expected value.

Eh I didn't know we were discussing 1 player leagues.

[SamTheEagle]

Difference between EV(#1) and EV(#12) is much larger than the difference in EV(#13) and EV(#24) and ton larger than EV(#145) compared to EV(#156)

Yeah, to be honest I would probably take Chris Johnson + Brandon Marshall (1 and 24 in my league) over Shonn Greene and Randy Moss (12 and 13), but I still don't believe that the advantage remains significantly huge over the entire course of the draft.

[Get Busy Livin']

Actually, the link I posted isn't what I thought it was. That one's from 2009. They just had a similar one for 2010 that was about the snake draft, and it came to the conclusion that the best spots were either the front of the order or the back, and that the bad ones were in the middle.

Can't find it right now though.

[SamTheEagle]

Actually, the link I posted isn't what I thought it was. That one's from 2009. They just had a similar one for 2010 that was about the snake draft, and it came to the conclusion that the best spots were either the front of the order or the back, and that the bad ones were in the middle.

Can't find it right now though.

This lines up with my preference.

[SamTheEagle]

Sounds intriguing. I'm in if we can match schedules. The big problem is I'm on a 4 day weekend.

So would it be head to head every week or total season points? How much $ is your max? I think the ADP could get tricky in how it is operated.

What in the world is this post about?

[BallaActuary]

Difference between EV(#1) and EV(#12) is much larger than the difference in EV(#13) and EV(#24) and ton larger than EV(#145) compared to EV(#156)

lol. The difference probably accounts for less than 10% of one's weekly FF total scoring.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

lol. The difference probably accounts for less than 10% of one's weekly FF total scoring.

So based on a random draw, some guy gets a 5pt bump every week. Seems fair.

[rawl316]

You come up with some fair way to draft a team from the 1.1 spot and I'll draft from whatever draft spot you want me to. We draft teams based on ADPs (so if you want me to be 1.12, I can't draft ADP or Ray Rice of course...but would pick like Moss and Wayne)

We switch off waiver wires pickups through the season. I'll wager you $/avatar switch/whatever that my team finished with a higher FF points than yours.

What in the world is this post about?

.

[Force of Interest]

Different skill. Not sure about "more" skill. Especially in the mid to late rounds of a snake draft. Sure, I'll concede that the first round or two are basically just check names off of your cheat sheet and pick who comes up next.

Thank you.

I think fantasy leagues are won in rounds 5-10, not 1-3.

[BallaActuary]

So based on a random draw, some guy gets a 5pt bump every week. Seems fair.

lol. Makes sense if we've moved up to 2 round leagues.

Having 4 picks in the first 37 is better than 4 picks in the first 49 if you ask me...but I'll save that argument for 4 round leagues.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

:wall:

[JustASix]

The biggest problem with auctions is the you don't get a break between picks, you have to pay attention all the time so it is much harder to get beer.

[BallaActuary]

:wall:

I'm sorry, but your argument is very weak.

[rawl316]

Thank you.

I think fantasy leagues are won in rounds 5-10, not 1-3.

Waiver wire is a lot of luck. Someone ahead on you takes Charles, there is nothing you can do about it.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

I'm sorry, but your argument is very weak.

Your only counter is that you are much better at waiver wires and sleepers than people you're in leagues with. I'm not arguing that, I'm saying that all else equal, if there were 10 Ballas each with the exact same draft guide, that certain draft positions would win the league more frequently than others if you simulated it, say, 10,000 times.

[BallaActuary]

You make a really good point. I prefer Gore out of those two probably because I have him in AOFF now. I am going to have to think hard about this.
Here is the real comparison for me.

Gore + Wayne/White + 3rd round WR vs. AJ + Wayne/White + 3rd round RB.

I don't think there is really such a thing as a 2nd round RB this year when some real good ones are going in the 3rd.

Are you 5th in some other draft?

I know there is a lot of emphasis in getting 2 top WRs this year, but there is a lot of value in WR2 this yearin the 6th-7th rounds like Garcon and Mike Wallace.

The tricky part is the 3rd round pick. You either have to go with Romo/Schaub here or a RB like Charles...if you don't get a QB you can wait til 7th or 8th to pick up Flacco, Eli, Roethlisberger, etc

[BallaActuary]

Waiver wire is a lot of luck. Someone ahead on you takes Charles, there is nothing you can do about it.

Like the guy who drafted 12th and has first waiver wire pick?

[JustASix]

Your only counter is that you are much better at waiver wires and sleepers than people you're in leagues with. I'm not arguing that, I'm saying that all else equal, if there were 10 Ballas each with the exact same draft guide, that certain draft positions would win the league more frequently than others if you simulated it, say, 10,000 times.
Check the baseball chat thread for an idea of how important a percieved preseason advantage is.
Mountainhawk and I both did projections right after the draft and we were both about as good as random guessing.
I tend to agree with Balla that the actual advantage you get from draft position is close to negligible over the course of a season and good team management can more than make up for it.

[Doc Holiday]

I got Jabar Gaffney in all of my leagues in rounds 10-12ish. Guess I rated him higher then everyone else. Am I crazy?

[BallaActuary]

Your only counter is that you are much better at waiver wires and sleepers than people you're in leagues with. I'm not arguing that, I'm saying that all else equal, if there were 10 Ballas each with the exact same draft guide, that certain draft positions would win the league more frequently than others if you simulated it, say, 10,000 times.

That's where your argument falls apart.

[BallaActuary]

djz,

Who do you think won this snake last year?
From 1st pick:
MJD, Wayne, SSmith-CAR, Kevin Smith, Warner, Ray Rice, Avery, Derrick Mason, Benson, Chester Taylor, Garrard, John Carlson, Hakeem Nicks, GB Def, NYJ Def, Shonn Greene

From 10th pick:
Brandon Jacobs, Slaton, Marshall, Bowe, Gates, McNabb, Addai, Felix Jones, Kevin Walter, Domenik Hixon, Sproles, New England def, Flacco, Crayton, Chris Henry, Kaeding

[Force of Interest]

Waiver wire is a lot of luck. Someone ahead on you takes Charles, there is nothing you can do about it.
I wasn't talking about waiver wires anywhere in that post, you ok?

Jamaal Charles was drafted in both my leagues last year, as he should've been. Not as a starter obviously but nobody liked LJ last year.

I don't know how waivers work in your leagues but ours is 1 day and once they clear that they are clear. They don't go back on waivers every week. So if Charles was available he woulda been an FA by the time he was starting. But again I play in 2 leagues and he was drafted in both last year.

[Dr. John Zoidberg]

That's where your argument falls apart.

How?

[Force of Interest]

How?
Probably because you are creating a false universe where everything is the same...just so you can help your auction draft vs snake draft argument.

They are different approaches. Arguing that one is superior to the other is stupid.

[Force of Interest]

Your only counter is that you are much better at waiver wires and sleepers than people you're in leagues with. I'm not arguing that, I'm saying that all else equal, if there were 10 Ballas each with the exact same draft guide, that certain draft positions would win the league more frequently than others if you simulated it, say, 10,000 times.
btw how the hell would this be different if 10 Balla's were in an auction draft?

[rawl316]

btw how the hell would this be different if 10 Balla's were in an auction draft?

You wouldn't be relying on picking a number out of a hat

[erosewater]

I'm drafting right now, and three (make that six as I was typing) kickers just got taken in the 9th round. If I don't win this league.....

[Force of Interest]

You wouldn't be relying on picking a number out of a hat
No instead you'd be bidding against 9 people just like you who all value everybody teh same. Who the hell would win a bid on anybody?

You're mistaking tradeoffs for some sort of superior system.

Even though real leagues don't use the snake, the draft is still similar to it. I can't imagine an auction draft in pro sports. Weird concept to me. I've done them before, they're ok. I don't have any strong feelings about either system and neither should you.

[MountainHawk]

No instead you'd be bidding against 9 people just like you who all value everybody teh same. Who the hell would win a bid on anybody?

You're mistaking tradeoffs for some sort of superior system.

Even though real leagues don't use the snake, the draft is still similar to it. I can't imagine an auction draft in pro sports. Weird concept to me. I've done them before, they're ok. I don't have any strong feelings about either system and neither should you.
Real life uses auction drafts all the time, it's called 'free agency'.

[erosewater]

Rate my team.

Pretty standard, 10 teams, 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/TE, K, DEF

0.5 PPR, 6 pts for passing TDs, only weird one is 1 pt per 10 return yards

QB: P.Manning, Flacco
RB: MJD, Bradshaw, F.Jones, Maroney, C.Taylor
WR: Jennings, S.Smith (NYG), Ochocinco, Dez Bryant, Hester
TE: Witten, Heath Miller
K: Prater
Def: DAL

A little weak at RB probably, but it's a WR-dependent league with 0.5 PPR and up to 4 WR spots. Hester has added value with return yards. Had a brainfart and drafted a 2nd TE. Flacco with the 99th pick was a steal, I could probably use waiver wire for bye week and move him for another RB. Probably drafted too many RBs given starting spots, but felt weak after MJD.

[rawl316]

No instead you'd be bidding against 9 people just like you who all value everybody teh same. Who the hell would win a bid on anybody?

You're mistaking tradeoffs for some sort of superior system.

Even though real leagues don't use the snake, the draft is still similar to it. I can't imagine an auction draft in pro sports. Weird concept to me. I've done them before, they're ok. I don't have any strong feelings about either system and neither should you.

The person who adjusts to the market conditions.

What do you think free agency is?

[Mind if I do a J?]

I got Jabar Gaffney in all of my leagues in rounds 10-12ish. Guess I rated him higher then everyone else. Am I crazy?
http://actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=4656268&postcount=551

[Force of Interest]

The person who adjusts to the market conditions.

What do you think free agency is?
i think its not a draft...

[Force of Interest]

The person who adjusts to the market conditions.

What do you think free agency is?
How can they adjust when they're all the same person...ya know.."all things being equal"

[Force of Interest]

Real life uses auction drafts all the time, it's called 'free agency'.
free agents dont always go to the highest bidder either


any other nonsensical arguments you clowns wanna throw out?

[3rookie]

Rate my team.

Pretty standard, 10 teams, 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/TE, K, DEF

0.5 PPR, 6 pts for passing TDs, only weird one is 1 pt per 10 return yards

QB: P.Manning, Flacco
RB: MJD, Bradshaw, F.Jones, Maroney, C.Taylor
WR: Jennings, S.Smith (NYG), Ochocinco, Dez Bryant, Hester
TE: Witten, Heath Miller
K: Prater
Def: DAL

A little weak at RB probably, but it's a WR-dependent league with 0.5 PPR and up to 4 WR spots. Hester has added value with return yards. Had a brainfart and drafted a 2nd TE. Flacco with the 99th pick was a steal, I could probably use waiver wire for bye week and move him for another RB. Probably drafted too many RBs given starting spots, but felt weak after MJD.Above average team for your 10-team league. Should do well. Waiver wire will be full of bye week replacements due to return yard scoring.

[hardinda]

Rate my team.

Pretty standard, 10 teams, 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/TE, K, DEF

0.5 PPR, 6 pts for passing TDs, only weird one is 1 pt per 10 return yards

QB: P.Manning, Flacco
RB: MJD, Bradshaw, F.Jones, Maroney, C.Taylor
WR: Jennings, S.Smith (NYG), Ochocinco, Dez Bryant, Hester
TE: Witten, Heath Miller
K: Prater
Def: DAL

A little weak at RB probably, but it's a WR-dependent league with 0.5 PPR and up to 4 WR spots. Hester has added value with return yards. Had a brainfart and drafted a 2nd TE. Flacco with the 99th pick was a steal, I could probably use waiver wire for bye week and move him for another RB. Probably drafted too many RBs given starting spots, but felt weak after MJD.

Lookout for Josh Cribbs in a 1 pt per 10 return yards league, dood was the #1 scorer in my league like that last year.

[Big Pete]

Rate my team.

Pretty standard, 10 teams, 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/TE, K, DEF

0.5 PPR, 6 pts for passing TDs, only weird one is 1 pt per 10 return yards

QB: P.Manning, Flacco
RB: MJD, Bradshaw, F.Jones, Maroney, C.Taylor
WR: Jennings, S.Smith (NYG), Ochocinco, Dez Bryant, Hester
TE: Witten, Heath Miller
K: Prater
Def: DAL

A little weak at RB probably, but it's a WR-dependent league with 0.5 PPR and up to 4 WR spots. Hester has added value with return yards. Had a brainfart and drafted a 2nd TE. Flacco with the 99th pick was a steal, I could probably use waiver wire for bye week and move him for another RB. Probably drafted too many RBs given starting spots, but felt weak after MJD.

Looks pretty light at RB for a 10-team league, but elsewhere looks strong.

Depending on where kick returners like Cribbs (will he be returning kicks as much this year, is he shifting a little more towards playing on offense? will teams figure out that they should stop kicking to him?) and Amendola were drafted, you may have paid a little too much for your WRs. Their 100+ return yards on average, plus some offensive stats, should make them solid starters, around the average Ochocino season, in your league.

[trondogss]

Had a draft last night. Pretty normal scoring except for defense and turnovers (Offense: 6 for TD, 1 per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 per 20 yards passing, -4 per int, -1 for sacks, -2 per fumble lost. Defense: 2 per sack, 4 per int, 4 per fumble recovery, 2 per block kick, 10 for 0 pts allowed, 3 for 1-6 pts, 0 for 7-13 pts, -3 for 14-20 pts, -5 for 21-27 pts, -8 for 28-34, and -11 for 35+ pts allowed). Starters are QB, WR, RB, W/T, W/T, W/R, K, Def

Here is my team

QB: Schaub, Cambell
RB: Rice, McCoy, Kevin Smith, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee
WR: Marshall, Sims-Walker, Malcom Floyd, Houshmandzadeh, Devin Aromashodu, Massaquoi, Burleson
K: Rian Lindell
Def: San Diego

I went with San Diego because they play in the West, will play the NFC West, and figured they have a good shot at keeping the majority of their opponents to low pts.

[MooBeay]

I got Jabar Gaffney in all of my leagues in rounds 10-12ish. Guess I rated him higher then everyone else. Am I crazy?

Nope, got him for a buck in my auction league...very nice. spent a total of 5 bucks on my WR core.