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View Full Version : Actuarial Outpost Pick Your Own Squares 2011

TakeNine
01-25-2011, 02:32 PM
Are you sick of dropping \$10 on your department's Super Bowl pool, only to draw the numbers 5 and 2? Wouldn't you like to have 0-3, 0-7, and the like? Wait no more! I'm giving you the chance to claim whatever numbers you want. The only problem is, I'm giving everyone else the same opportunity.

As in a traditional Super Bowl pool, at the end of each quarter, and the end of the game, you look at the last digit of the score for the NFC team, and the last digit of the score for the AFC team. If you have that square at that time, you win 1/5 of the total pot. Since multiple people may claim a square, you will share that prize in proportion to the total bet on that number combination. If you bet \$2 and a total of \$8 was placed on that number combination, you get 1/4 of 1/5 the pot.

You have RF\$15 to bet in this pool. You may place any whole number of dollars on any NFC-AFC combination, or on the field. The field represents all number combinations not claimed by any player. A sample bet may look like 0-0 \$3, 7-0 \$2, 0-7 \$2, 0-3 \$3, 3-0 \$2, 4-1 \$2, Field \$1. You're playing for bragging rights, nothing else.

Send your bets (NFC-AFC format) to me over PMs by Friday the 4th, 6 PM Eastern. Your last entry received via PM, or posted here, will count. You may change your picks before the deadline. I'll keep an update of the total number of bets received, so you can best judge the value of a field bet.

TakeNine
01-25-2011, 02:33 PM

TakeNine
01-26-2011, 10:25 PM

Abstract Actuary
01-27-2011, 11:06 AM
Is it mine? Returning Champ!! Back to back!!

TakeNine
01-27-2011, 02:57 PM
Then I'll make my "entry" Super Bowl Sunday at 11 PM. "No, really, I put \$15 on the final score's number pair."

TakeNine
01-31-2011, 01:56 PM
I still have only one submission. Time to start PMing past players.

Browncoat
01-31-2011, 02:18 PM
What does the \$1 Field bet in the sample in the OP mean?

Bison
01-31-2011, 03:09 PM
Ok, I'm in.

Browncoat
02-01-2011, 02:31 PM
What does the \$1 Field bet in the sample in the OP mean?

:bump:

OddSox
02-01-2011, 02:54 PM
The field represents all number combinations not claimed by any player.

betting 'the field' means that you bet the winning combination is one that is not specifically picked by any of this contest's contestants. For example, 8-5 and 8-2 will probably not get any money specifically bet on them, but a 'field' bet would pay out if one of these was the winning combination.

This looks like fun, I'll have to come up with something.

TakeNine
02-02-2011, 11:40 AM
Thank you, Oddsox, for highlighting the instructions.

Now up to 7 submissions, including my own.

OddSox
02-02-2011, 02:03 PM
you guys are going down. just an FYI.

yankeetripper
02-03-2011, 02:49 PM
Score combo odds based on this years NFL data (http://caseyshead.com/2011-super-bowl-squares-odds/)

ditkaworshipper
02-03-2011, 03:03 PM
RF\$15 on the field

yankeetripper
02-03-2011, 03:04 PM
RF\$15 on the field

:swear: there goes my PM submission.

dinosaur
02-04-2011, 02:41 PM
Score combo odds based on this years NFL data (http://caseyshead.com/2011-super-bowl-squares-odds/)

I was looking for this exact thing before. tks.

TakeNine
02-06-2011, 12:01 AM
Here's the final grid.

AFC\NFC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 17 1 0 14 8 0 2 19 1 1
1 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 13 1 0 3 0 0 0 2 1 0
4 7 0 0 2 0 0 1 24 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 4 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 0
7 14 1 0 3 8 0 4 2 0 1
8 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

There are 15 submissions. A whopping 53 points on the field this year, which is good, because there are a lot of unchosen combinations. 63 out of 100 score combinations were completely ignored!

ditkaworshipper
02-06-2011, 01:46 AM
Let's go field!!!! :popcorn:

TakeNine
02-07-2011, 12:08 AM
Let's go field!!!! :popcorn:

And thanks to ditkaworshipper's cheering, the Steelers made a 2 point conversion, giving them 25 points. Not surprisingly, no one picked 5, which means yankeetripper and ditkaworshipper score big with their full field bet.

Still, they only tie for third place. Tying for first were Abstract Actuary and OddSox, following the strategy of putting a dollar on an unusual combination.

Abstract Actuary \$45.00
OddSox \$45.00
yankeetripper \$25.47
ditkaworshipper \$25.47
Patience \$14.12
4sigma \$13.58
udjw828 \$12.95
Bison \$11.25
dinosaur \$5.09
Browncoat \$1.70
TakeNine \$1.70
RedSoxFan \$1.70
BingBoing \$0.00

Sadly, I bet on 1, but paired with 3.

ditkaworshipper
02-07-2011, 09:53 AM
I don't get how that works...

Abstract Actuary
02-07-2011, 10:19 AM
Back to back co-champ!!!

OddSox
02-07-2011, 11:22 AM
Abstract Actuary \$37.50
OddSox \$37.50
yankeetripper \$21.23
ditkaworshipper \$21.23
Patience \$11.76
4sigma \$11.32
udjw828 \$10.79
Bison \$9.38
dinosaur \$4.25