Actuarial Outpost Pick Your Own Squares 2011

[TakeNine]

Are you sick of dropping $10 on your department's Super Bowl pool, only to draw the numbers 5 and 2? Wouldn't you like to have 0-3, 0-7, and the like? Wait no more! I'm giving you the chance to claim whatever numbers you want. The only problem is, I'm giving everyone else the same opportunity.

As in a traditional Super Bowl pool, at the end of each quarter, and the end of the game, you look at the last digit of the score for the NFC team, and the last digit of the score for the AFC team. If you have that square at that time, you win 1/5 of the total pot. Since multiple people may claim a square, you will share that prize in proportion to the total bet on that number combination. If you bet $2 and a total of $8 was placed on that number combination, you get 1/4 of 1/5 the pot.

You have RF$15 to bet in this pool. You may place any whole number of dollars on any NFC-AFC combination, or on the field. The field represents all number combinations not claimed by any player. A sample bet may look like 0-0 $3, 7-0 $2, 0-7 $2, 0-3 $3, 3-0 $2, 4-1 $2, Field $1. You're playing for bragging rights, nothing else.

Send your bets (NFC-AFC format) to me over PMs by Friday the 4th, 6 PM Eastern. Your last entry received via PM, or posted here, will count. You may change your picks before the deadline. I'll keep an update of the total number of bets received, so you can best judge the value of a field bet.

Here is 2010's contest. (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=184944)
Here is 2009's contest. (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=157475)

[TakeNine]

Total Entries Received: 0

[TakeNine]

Total Entries Received: 1 :cry:

[Abstract Actuary]

Is it mine? Returning Champ!! Back to back!!

[TakeNine]

Then I'll make my "entry" Super Bowl Sunday at 11 PM. "No, really, I put $15 on the final score's number pair."

[TakeNine]

I still have only one submission. Time to start PMing past players.

[Browncoat]

What does the $1 Field bet in the sample in the OP mean?

[Bison]

Ok, I'm in.

[Browncoat]

What does the $1 Field bet in the sample in the OP mean?

:bump:

[OddSox]

The field represents all number combinations not claimed by any player.

betting 'the field' means that you bet the winning combination is one that is not specifically picked by any of this contest's contestants. For example, 8-5 and 8-2 will probably not get any money specifically bet on them, but a 'field' bet would pay out if one of these was the winning combination.

This looks like fun, I'll have to come up with something.

[TakeNine]

Thank you, Oddsox, for highlighting the instructions.

Now up to 7 submissions, including my own.

[OddSox]

you guys are going down. just an FYI.

[yankeetripper]

Score combo odds based on this years NFL data (http://caseyshead.com/2011-super-bowl-squares-odds/)

[ditkaworshipper]

RF$15 on the field

[yankeetripper]

RF$15 on the field

:swear: there goes my PM submission.

[dinosaur]

Score combo odds based on this years NFL data (http://caseyshead.com/2011-super-bowl-squares-odds/)

I was looking for this exact thing before. tks.

[TakeNine]

Here's the final grid.


AFC\NFC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 17 1 0 14 8 0 2 19 1 1
1 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 13 1 0 3 0 0 0 2 1 0
4 7 0 0 2 0 0 1 24 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 4 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 0
7 14 1 0 3 8 0 4 2 0 1
8 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0


There are 15 submissions. A whopping 53 points on the field this year, which is good, because there are a lot of unchosen combinations. 63 out of 100 score combinations were completely ignored!

[ditkaworshipper]

Let's go field!!!! :popcorn:

[TakeNine]

Let's go field!!!! :popcorn:

And thanks to ditkaworshipper's cheering, the Steelers made a 2 point conversion, giving them 25 points. Not surprisingly, no one picked 5, which means yankeetripper and ditkaworshipper score big with their full field bet.

Still, they only tie for third place. Tying for first were Abstract Actuary and OddSox, following the strategy of putting a dollar on an unusual combination.


Abstract Actuary $45.00
OddSox $45.00
yankeetripper $25.47
ditkaworshipper $25.47
BuckyBadger $18.57
Patience $14.12
4sigma $13.58
udjw828 $12.95
Bison $11.25
dinosaur $5.09
Radioactive Superstar $3.40
Browncoat $1.70
TakeNine $1.70
RedSoxFan $1.70
BingBoing $0.00


Sadly, I bet on 1, but paired with 3.

[ditkaworshipper]

I don't get how that works...

[Abstract Actuary]

Back to back co-champ!!!

[OddSox]

Abstract Actuary $37.50
OddSox $37.50
yankeetripper $21.23
ditkaworshipper $21.23
BuckyBadger $15.48
Patience $11.76
4sigma $11.32
udjw828 $10.79
Bison $9.38
dinosaur $4.25
Radioactive Superstar $2.83
Browncoat $1.42
TakeNine $1.42
RedSoxFan $1.42
BingBoing $0.00

Hopefully I don't jeopardize my co-champion status by pointing this out, but shouldn't the payouts add up to $225? (15*$15)

[TakeNine]

Didn't I mention the 1/6 house cut?

Okay, I've multiplied all those numbers by 1.2. I put the wrong figure in for the payouts.