SOA Problem #15

[MyS0ck]

You are given:

The probability that an insured will have at least one loss during any year is p
The prior distribution for p is uniform on [0,0.5]
An insured is observed for 8 years has at least one loss every year.

Determine the posterior probability that the insured will have at least one loss during Year 9.

I recognized that this was a bernoulli/beta conjugate prior. I used parameter update to make a* = 9 and b* = 1 thus my q = 0.9. However, seeing that the prior is uniform with a=b=1, and theta = 0.5, I mulitplied my q by 0.5. Is this okay to do? Or did I just get lucky?

[Abraham Weishaus]

As Jim Daniel pointed out at least twice in this forum, it only works when there is always a loss every year.

[MyS0ck]

A simple yes or no would have been adequate or links to the previously asked question.

Is this how you typically treat purchasers of your study manual? Please let me know because I will need to begin using a different study manual where I am not looked down upon by asking a legitimate question.

[Actuarialsuck]

I think his point was that one should try to search the forums to see if that question has been asked before (I haven't tried to search so I don't know how easy/hard it is).

Why does it matter how he responded? Are you buying a manual based on its quality or how nice the author is to you?

[MyS0ck]

It is a matter of respect. Why would you disrespect your audience? Even if the question has been asked before what is the point of such a stinging remark? There is nothing contructive coming from it. If you do not want to respond, then don't respond.

FYI...ASM is not the only quality manual out there. If need be I will purchase a different manual, TIA or attend Daniel's seminar where I can contact the author directly to answer any legitimate question that has been probably asked multiple times. What is the point of authoring a study manual and making yourself available via message board only to disrespect a poster?

[Actuarialsuck]

It is a matter of respect. Why would you disrespect your audience? Even if the question has been asked before what is the point of such a stinging remark? There is nothing contructive coming from it. If you do not want to respond, then don't respond.

FYI...ASM is not the only quality manual out there. If need be I will purchase a different manual, TIA or attend Daniel's seminar where I can contact the author directly to answer any legitimate question that has been probably asked multiple times. What is the point of authoring a study manual and making yourself available via message board only to disrespect a poster?

LOL thanks for letting me know there are other sources. I will keep that in mind.

I can't speak for Abe but I imagine there's an unwritten "rule" that the search feature is around for a reason and sometimes it does get annoying to repeat the same thing quite a few times. A lot of posters, like you, choose not to use it but then I'd suggest not getting this upset over a remark. All in all, his comment answered your question.

[Sloop John B]

Abe could call my mother a smelly cow and I wouldn't care as long as I keep passing exams using his manuals.

[imdave0182]

As Jim Daniel pointed out at least twice in this forum, it only works when there is always a loss every year.

Read this again. This is not a stinging remark.

[Actuarialsuck]

Read this again. This is not a stinging remark.

He's upset because Weishaus said "at least twice" implying that it would have been a good idea to search the forum.

[MyS0ck]

LOL thanks for letting me know there are other sources. I will keep that in mind.

I can't speak for Abe but I imagine there's an unwritten "rule" that the search feature is around for a reason and sometimes it does get annoying to repeat the same thing quite a few times. A lot of posters, like you, choose not to use it but then I'd suggest not getting this upset over a remark. All in all, his comment answered your question.

I think there is an unwritten rule "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you."

A lot of posters like me?!?! That is a little rash. I have only asked two questions in this forum. Actually, his response was a little unclear, I ended up using Jim Daniels to answer my question.

[Actuarialsuck]

I think there is an unwritten rule "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you."

A lot of posters like me?!?! That is a little rash. I have only asked two questions in this forum. Actually, his response was a little unclear, I ended up using Jim Daniels to answer my question.

I'm confused as to how the # of posts relates to there being a lot of posters like you (ones that would rather start a new thread than search existing ones).