Friedland Ch 17 Kittel

[Wolfy]

Based on the ULAE coverage in Friedland Ch. 17, is it accurate to say that if a question appears on the Kittel refinement, they can not give you an assumption other than the 50% / 50%?

The reason I ask is because of 2006 #18 and the associated sample CAS answers. I don't see anything in Friedland Ch 17 that goes through or speaks of determining the ULAE % for Kittel based on the approach illustrated in the sample CAS solutions. I am guessing this is in the "old ULAE paper" but did not make it into Friedland (it looks like maybe Friedland takes a simplified approach for Kittel where only the 50% / 50% assumption is considered?).

[G. Stolyarov II]

Based on the ULAE coverage in Friedland Ch. 17, is it accurate to say that if a question appears on the Kittel refinement, they can not give you an assumption other than the 50% / 50%?

The reason I ask is because of 2006 #18 and the associated sample CAS answers. I don't see anything in Friedland Ch 17 that goes through or speaks of determining the ULAE % for Kittel based on the approach illustrated in the sample CAS solutions. I am guessing this is in the "old ULAE paper" but did not make it into Friedland (it looks like maybe Friedland takes a simplified approach for Kittel where only the 50% / 50% assumption is considered?).

I have had a similar concern about this sample solution.

The old Conger/Nolibos paper also does not appear to allow for anything other than the 50%/50% assumption for the classical and Kittel methods. Thus, if one goes "by the book" on these techniques, one should not utilize anything other than the 50%/50% assumption, irrespective of what the given conditions say.

In my opinion, the question should have been clearer as to whether or not the candidate was required to use the 70%/30% assumption as an exception to the classical and Kittel procedures. If such a statement is not made, then a reasonable person should give full credit for using the 50%/50% assumption and explaining that it is the assumption incorporated into these methods. But whether CAS graders actually gave full credit in such instances, I cannot say.

Sincerely,
G. Stolyarov II, ARe, AIS