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Bobby
05-04-2011, 04:41 PM
What do you believe it will be?

snoo
05-04-2011, 04:45 PM
I cant say for the full exam 5, exam 5b i would guess the passmark would be at 73percent correct . Seriously i knowvi have had alot to drink but i cantvfind the percentage symbol on my iphone...

Vorian Atreides
05-04-2011, 04:52 PM
I'm assuming that the points in the poll are mid-points of corresponding intervals.

sohlelynol
05-04-2011, 05:06 PM
I'm assuming that the points in the poll are mid-points of corresponding intervals.

Test is over -- you don't have to think anymore.

monkey2003
05-04-2011, 05:40 PM
Seriously... 70% pass mark??? i don't know about 5a and 5b, but for 5-full it seemed like very very very few people actually finished the exam.. i'd like to imagine the pass mark is closer to 65%

Present Value
05-04-2011, 05:44 PM
Seriously... 70% pass mark??? i don't know about 5a and 5b, but for 5-full it seemed like very very very few people actually finished the exam.. i'd like to imagine the pass mark is closer to 65%

Sample size neglect or representativeness is an information processing error

Adversely Selected
05-04-2011, 07:21 PM
Might as well throw out the responses that are above 70 as that should never happen, especially with an exam as long as this one.

SMMBB
05-04-2011, 07:27 PM
I'm guessing there will be a lot of resistance from CAS before the mark drops below the 70-75% target range. Not that I'm happy about it.

Vorian Atreides
05-04-2011, 07:38 PM
Test is over -- you don't have to think anymore.
Apparently you don't know what I do for a living . . .





;-)

Number Theory
05-04-2011, 09:40 PM
65% if they are going to allow 40% of the people to pass. I have a feeling that only 10-20% of full exam 5 takers will pass if mark is 70. I know alot of people who took this exam and nobody finished nor feels like they passed.

DrActuary
05-04-2011, 11:16 PM
I felt I was the only one who left the exam hall literally cursing myself - I took Exam 5 felt I knew most of the material, but due to lack of time I have left more than 7 questions. I do not believe in LUCK anymore!

Loose Seal
05-04-2011, 11:17 PM
Sample size neglect or representativeness is an information processing error

This guy wins for being my new favorite doosh on the AO.

JasonScandopolous
05-04-2011, 11:21 PM
65% if they are going to allow 40% of the people to pass. I have a feeling that only 10-20% of full exam 5 takers will pass if mark is 70. I know alot of people who took this exam and nobody finished nor feels like they passed.

The CAS claims that they select the pass mark beforehand, or at least dont adjust the passmark based on people's responses. I personally think that's partially BS, but at the same time, mostly true... the CAS has passed between 35 and 65% one exams before, so we should take them at their word without any contrary evidence..

If you believe that and also acknowledge the upward trend of passmarks on upper level exams, there is no reason other than blind optimism to believe that the pass mark will be significantly below 70%. I would be as surprised with a 65% pass as I would a 75% (unless the CAS is lying, and they do change the passmark based on how candidates perform; if widespread problems occurred, they may take mercy & lower the passmark.. again, this is only if they are liars regarding the pass mark being pre-set).

disclaimer: I am too drunk to look at the actual CAS statements regarding pass marks, but I believe my characterization is accurate; if corrected, i'll edit this post out of existence.

FourKicks
05-04-2011, 11:27 PM
I felt I was the only one who left the exam hall literally cursing myself - I took Exam 5 felt I knew most of the material, but due to lack of time I have left more than 7 questions. I do not believe in LUCK anymore!

i only took exam 5A, and i left more points on the table than most people seemingly left for all of exam 5. and i don't consider myself a slow test-taker. i have basically resigned myself to the fact that i have to be near flawless on the questions i answer. it's frustrating, especially when i know how to do all the questions, but time has always been an issue on the upper-levels and i doubt it's going to change anytime soon.

2M
05-05-2011, 12:18 AM
I don't think they will pass 40% of test takers just for the sake of passing 40%

There have been tests where a lot more than 40% passed and there have been tests where there were less than 30% passed. The "MQC" and all those above him(or her) will pass. The CAS has said before that in theory if everybody beats the MQC then everybody passses but if no one does they would have no trouble with passing no one.


Now I have never met this MQC person but it is likely a different person every time:shrug:

TRINIDON2K
05-05-2011, 04:48 PM
If it makes anyone feel a little more at ease... Exam 7 Spring 2010 was 66%

Number Theory
05-05-2011, 06:39 PM
CAS Written-Answer Pass Mark Setting
For CAS examinations consisting in whole or in part of written-answer questions, the assessment process is somewhat different. Before the exam is administered, a pass mark panel reviews the exam and assesses it based on how the panelists think a minimally qualified candidate will perform based on a predetermined definition of the minimally qualified candidate. This process follows the same basic technique used for multiple choice exams. Based on this assessment, an expected pass mark is set.

Following the administration of each exam, each answer is graded simultaneously by two graders who must reconcile their techniques and grades. When all questions have been scored, the Committee chooses a preliminary pass mark based on the results of the pass mark panel augmented by actual performance of the current candidates versus historical performance of previous candidate cohorts. Candidate papers with scores close to the preliminary pass mark are regraded to ensure correct and consistent scoring. The Examination Committee then determines the final pass mark by again balancing actual performance statistics against minimum adequate knowledge while taking into account other factors such as time pressure situations that may have occurred on some questions. The effects of any particularly difficult questions are also factored in when determining the final pass mark.

Who Decides the Final Pass Marks?
With the use of content-based pass marks, fluctuation in the pass rate from session to session is expected. A recommended pass mark is reached by consultation between the Part Chairperson and the Examination Committee Chairperson. Any significant deviations from the a priori pass mark set by the pass mark panel are explored at this time. The recommended pass mark and explanations for deviations from the a priori pass mark and any abnormal passing percentages are submitted to the Vice President-Admissions who approves the final pass mark. Upon approval by the Vice President-Admissions, the final pass mark and exam statistics are forwarded to the Executive Council.

Inconceivable
05-05-2011, 07:09 PM
CAS Written-Answer Pass Mark Setting
For CAS examinations consisting in whole or in part of written-answer questions, the assessment process is somewhat different. Before the exam is administered, a pass mark panel reviews the exam and assesses it based on how the panelists think a minimally qualified candidate will perform based on a predetermined definition of the minimally qualified candidate. This process follows the same basic technique used for multiple choice exams. Based on this assessment, an expected pass mark is set.

Following the administration of each exam, each answer is graded simultaneously by two graders who must reconcile their techniques and grades. When all questions have been scored, the Committee chooses a preliminary pass mark based on the results of the pass mark panel augmented by actual performance of the current candidates versus historical performance of previous candidate cohorts. Candidate papers with scores close to the preliminary pass mark are regraded to ensure correct and consistent scoring. The Examination Committee then determines the final pass mark by again balancing actual performance statistics against minimum adequate knowledge while taking into account other factors such as time pressure situations that may have occurred on some questions. The effects of any particularly difficult questions are also factored in when determining the final pass mark.

Who Decides the Final Pass Marks?
With the use of content-based pass marks, fluctuation in the pass rate from session to session is expected. A recommended pass mark is reached by consultation between the Part Chairperson and the Examination Committee Chairperson. Any significant deviations from the a priori pass mark set by the pass mark panel are explored at this time. The recommended pass mark and explanations for deviations from the a priori pass mark and any abnormal passing percentages are submitted to the Vice President-Admissions who approves the final pass mark. Upon approval by the Vice President-Admissions, the final pass mark and exam statistics are forwarded to the Executive Council.

Well as long as it's simple and straighforward with clear accountability.

Ceej
05-05-2011, 07:20 PM
After reading that last sitting of Exam 6, I felt the process was pretty fair - if I was meant to have a pass, I would have been given every opportunity (possibly up to three different times) to be given one.

Inconceivable
05-05-2011, 07:21 PM
After reading that last sitting of Exam 6, I felt the process was pretty fair - if I was meant to have a pass, I would have been given every opportunity (possibly up to three different times) to be given one.

Yeah I'm just being bitter because I realized I did one problem wrong today. (not that that's the only one, just one that I realized).

Ceej
05-05-2011, 07:37 PM
No worries Inco, you saw most of the exam and wrote full solutions - which many folks were not able to do. Find peace in that and let it go - our free time from exams started yesterday afternoon and we're wasting it here.

It's Cinco de Mayo - let's all get off these boards, and enjoy a Dos XX.

(see y'all in the Exam 6 forums in July!)

snoo
05-05-2011, 07:50 PM
After all the time i have put into this exam i guess i just have a hard time moving on. I do need to focus my efforts towards 6 though...

Ceej
05-05-2011, 08:51 PM
(I'm shameless I can't step away either, I'm mobile AO-ing, but with a Dos XX in hand!)