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Bama Gambler
01-25-2004, 05:39 PM
Well guys (and gals) if you see me on the WPT on April 14th it will be in the audience. I'd didn't last long. I made it to the third level (a little over 3 hours). We started with around 220 players and I finished around 175ish. I did out last Phil Ivey and Chris Moneymaker.

Here is my bust hand.
Blinds are 100-200 and I have around 4800 in chips
I had been playing at this table less than 10 hands
I'm on the button and get KK
Andy Bloch (famous player that made two final tables in the first season on WPT) makes it 600 to go
Two other players call Andy's raise cold
I think for a good 30 seconds and decided to raise to 2000
Andy thinks for about 30 seconds too then decided to call
Andy has over 10000
The other two players fold
Immediately I know Andy doesn't have AA; he would have to re-raise since AA is not a hand you want to play 4 handed with that many players in the pot
I also don't think he would just call with AK; he would either come over the top or just fold
I feel really confident that he has 77-QQ
Flop comes J86 with two spades
I have the king of spades
Now Andy checks without hesitation
I knew he would check the flop regardless, but the problem is I can't check and give him a draw to a set
My only play is all-in, so I do it immediately
Andy calls instantly and I know I'm beat
He turns over 88 and I get no help on the turn or river

You know what's really weird is Andy Bloch bought Freeman's seat. Then he took all my chips!! In an early hand (the last hand before the first break) he took 1500 from me when I tried to steal. The blinds were 100-200 and two limped including Andy. I had A6o in the BB and I just checked. The flop came 832. I check and so did the middle position guy. Andy bet 500. I raised to 1500 (on a steal), then the guy in the middle comes over the top. Andy calls and I quickly fold. Andy had 22 for the flopped set and the other guy had 99.

I had a great time and got to see some big names. Gus Hanson won, Hoyt came in second, Daniel Negreanu came in third. Other big names Andy Bloch (of course), Howard Lederer, Erik Seidel, Carlos Mortensen, Phil Ivey, Brad Daugherty, and Tom McEvoy to name a few.

Sunny
01-25-2004, 05:43 PM
Sounds like you had a great time Bama. :)

vegas
01-26-2004, 07:58 AM
Nice job getting there. You got beat on a good starting hand, and had to much all in when you did. Andy got a great flop, oh well.

BTW, although I never played poker with Andy Bloch, I did play Blackjack at a table with him in Vegas. He basically had a $25 match play. He played it and won the first hand. Then he took his original investment off the table and played another $25 bet. He lost that one, but was happy with his $50 gain. He stuck around for a few minutes since we had started a conversation.

The next day I went to the Bellagio to watch a tourni that Andy told me about. There were several big names there as well. I spent time watching Andy, Phil Helmuth and Annie Duke. I basically sat there and said, "Geez, I can do this, and why isn't Annie single?."

Grits N Gravy
01-26-2004, 03:00 PM
I think for a good 30 seconds and decided to raise to 2000
Andy thinks for about 30 seconds too then decided to call
Andy has over 10000


Do you think Andy made a good call here? Isn't there a very good chance that he's dominated already? (which he was) With 88, what can he reasonably think you have where he's not way behind? AK?

Bama Gambler
01-26-2004, 03:03 PM
Do you think Andy made a good call here? Isn't there a very good chance that he's dominated already? (which he was) With 88, what can he reasonably think you have where he's not way behind? AK?He must have put me on AK or he was willing to gamble since his stack was very large. I know he was the chip leader at the table and he had anywhere from 10,000 to 15,000 (most likely closer to 15,000). If he belives one of the other two will call and he will get all my chips if he flops a set then he can call.

Expunge
01-26-2004, 06:38 PM
those are just some of the lucky breaks you need to get in a tournament. Most top players will make reasonable plays, it comes down to not getting busted on a bluff and catching a good flop or two.

Happy Extinction
01-26-2004, 08:28 PM
Is there a bar story after you busted out????

Bama Gambler
01-27-2004, 08:40 AM
Is there a bar story after you busted out????Nah, I wasn't really upset. I was a little disappointed. I felt I had a good chance to make the money and I didn't even come close. I know I'll have another chance not to far in the future.

Expunge
01-30-2004, 02:54 PM
ok, so why didn't you go all in preflop?

Bama Gambler
01-30-2004, 03:00 PM
The ideal situation for this hand would be to get heads-up against a smaller pair. If raising to 2000 would accomplish this then that's the best move, but given that two called between Andy and myself I don't think that's true (the hand might end up three hand with one guy having a medium pocket pair and the other having something like AK or AQ). Thus, I should have moved all-in. Think about it this way. Let's pretend Andy folded and they guy behind Andy folded. Now the last guy turns his cards face up (shows 88) and asks me if I want him to call my raise to 2000. The answer would be yes. In other words, I got the "best" situation, but not the desired result (Andy flopped a set). My raise to 2000 was just slightly worse than moving all-in.

Expunge
01-30-2004, 03:13 PM
The ideal situation for this hand would be to get heads-up against a smaller pair. If raising to 2000 would accomplish this then that's the best move, but given that two called between Andy and myself I don't think that's true (the hand might end up three hand with one guy having a medium pocket pair and the other having something like AK or AQ). Thus, I should have moved all-in. Think about it this way. Let's pretend Andy folded and they guy behind Andy folded. Now the last guy turns his cards face up (shows 88) and asks me if I want him to call my raise to 2000. The answer would be yes. In other words, I got the "best" situation, but not the desired result (Andy flopped a set). My raise to 2000 was just slightly worse than moving all-in.

It sounds like you were getting greedy trying to get a call and win a bigger pot. I agree, with three others claiming a strong hand (by virtue of betting/calling 600), take the pot and run. AA dominates you, you dominate all other hands. If you're looking to showdown a hand you might just get a call from one of them. I don't like the bet of 2000, if anyone calls you you have less than 1/2 the pot and you end up gambling for your whole stack after giving them a look at the flop.

Bama Gambler
01-30-2004, 03:31 PM
It sounds like you were getting greedy trying to get a call and win a bigger pot. I agree, with three others claiming a strong hand (by virtue of betting/calling 600), take the pot and run. AA dominates you, you dominate all other hands. If you're looking to showdown a hand you might just get a call from one of them. I don't like the bet of 2000, if anyone calls you you have less than 1/2 the pot and you end up gambling for your whole stack after giving them a look at the flop.I disagree. First of all AA wouldn't just call pre-flop (especially from Andy's position). So when you take the flop you know you are a hugh favorite. You want to be heads up. Even if the two of you take it to the river you will win more than 80% of the time (that's assuming both of his suits are alive - even worse if his suits match yours). Plus since you bet all-in on the flop regardless, he might fold the flop (or he might call since the pot is already so big). The pot is already 2100. You are trying to get at least an extra 1400.

I agree all-in preflop is the best play, but the ideal situation is heads-up against a smaller pair.

Expunge
01-30-2004, 03:39 PM
I agree all-in preflop is the best play, but the ideal situation is heads-up against a smaller pair.

I agree.

The best situation is to be heads-up against a smaller pair who has a smaller stack.

Do you see that you didn't really have enough control over the situation?(there are 3 other players)

Bama Gambler
01-30-2004, 03:41 PM
Do you see that you didn't really have enough control over the situation?(there are 3 other players)Yes, not to mention Andy has 3x my stack.

11pecans
01-30-2004, 04:36 PM
What you did wasn't wrong and hindsight is 20/20, but the point in a tournament is survival. I think at any point you need to respect his chip lead. He raised the pot, your moderate re-raise eliminated the other two players, but ultimately not the hand that beat you.

What I might learn from that hand is to either go all in pre-flop, in which case Andy probably folds as well without seeing the flop, or to slow play the kings without the re-raise and then perhaps put him on a set by his betting after the flop.

Given that he started with a small raise, perhaps you guess he has a middle pocket pair, the other two players calling is not a good sign as one or both may have a king making the flop less in your favor for the big hand. After your moderate raise the pot was big enough that it is probably worth calling especially since the other two players behind him might also call in which case the ultimate pot could be very large. He also can play more aggressive given the fact that your stack is small. The fact that he checked after the flop, as you point out means nothing, so going all in seals your fate and gives him the avantage since his preflop strategy is to hit his set or fold.

Given he already paid to see the flop for the additional $1400, your all-in at this point works more to his advantage than yours. He either calls with the better hand or folds and your net gain is zero or negative either way. At this point you are just hoping he missed and saying if you hit please take my money. A smaller bet of say $500 may well accomplish the same desired result without the adverse consequence. If he missed his pair he may well decide hes dominated and fold or if he did hit then he re-raises and you fold still leaving you with $2300. Not a good result but still alive to catch another hand.

So my criticism of this play is the moderate raise at the begining. Either raise more to $3000 or all in or not at all. Then after the flop, and given its heads up, your all in at this point is unproductive.

Just my two cents.

Bama Gambler
01-30-2004, 04:47 PM
I can't just call preflop. There is already 2100 in the pot. KK is not a hand you want to play 4 handed.

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/

Run KK vs three under pairs.
Run KK vs two under pairs and AK.
Run KK vs one under pair and two hands with two big cards.

Now run KK vs one under pair.

There is too much money in the pot to just call preflop.

On the flop how can I bet 500 into a pot of 5500 with the intention of folding? I might as well fold and give Andy 500.

I didn't check the flop because I couldn't afford to give a free card. He might have AK, a flush draw, or small pocket pair. He has to pay for those draws.

Also he might have QQ and put me on AK. If he had QQ then I'm sure he would call my all-in bet on the flop. He may even call with TT since the pot is so large.

11pecans
01-30-2004, 05:31 PM
Its just my opinion. If you want to just say you did what was right and it was just a bad beat so be it.

In my opinion, the probabilites of winning hands alone do not take into account the opportunity cost of early bets or the vulnerabity of being a small stack and being knocked out.

The other two players may well have had k 10 and K 8 suited.

The fact that you didnt move him out before the flop and his chip lead makes the all in after the flop futile in my opinioin. I still think there is a chance that if he thinks he is beat he could fold to a small bet under the premise that why throw good money after bad. You are right though that the small bet still makes you vulnerable if he reads it as a sign of weakness. Fact is you are vulnerable, nothing you do can change that.

Its not so much reading the cards at this stage, its reading the player. I think he read you and you didnt read him. You didnt put him on a set and you went all in.

It was my opinion that an alternate betting strategy might allow you to read the hands. Perhaps not.

Obviously what you did did not work in this situation. So you either conclude it was the right thing to do and do it again and hope the cards work in your favor or you attempt to analyze what might be done to alter the outcome.

I supposed your post was an invitation for the latter but I guess you prefer to stand by the former.

Certainly if you know he has the inferior hand then you would make him pay to draw out on you, make him pay to see the remaining cards.

But the fact remains that you didnt know that because it wasnt true. He in fact played you into paying for the right to see the last two cards for your inferior hand after the flop.

"I didn't check the flop because I couldn't afford to give a free card." This is a blatantly false statement under the circumstances would you not agree?

Good day.

Bama Gambler
01-30-2004, 05:43 PM
I hope I didn't offend you b/c that was certainly not my intent. Rather I was trying to explain why I think calling preflop is wrong and betting the small amount on the flop is wrong.

I've already agreed that given my stack size, his stack size, the number of players, and the size of the pot that going all-in preflop is the best play.

I think my raise to 2000 gives me more information about his hand than calling 600. If I just call preflop and the flop comes J86 and he bets big how can I put him on a set vs. AJ?

It's very hard to put someone on a set anytime. That's what makes small pocket pairs so powerful in NL hold'em. Thatís just another reason to raise preflop so they can't see the flop cheaply.

To summarize, I do think I was a bit unlucky (certainly not a bad beat) in the hand. I don't think Andy played the hand bad and I don't think I played it bad either. You can't win 'em all. Look at the number of World Champions that didn't make the money in this tournament.

Let me add, I really hope my posts don't come off as condescending. I know I benefit greatly from the conversation of these hands. It may seem as if I think I know it all, but I definitely don't feel that way.

Expunge
01-30-2004, 06:25 PM
Let me add, I really hope my posts don't come off as condescending. I know I benefit greatly from the conversation of these hands. It may seem as if I think I know it all, but I definitely don't feel that way.

Some of you're posts do come off quite harsh (i'm sure mine do too sometimes), after many debates with you and a few of these comments i'm pretty confident that harshness isn't the goal, the goal is truely more of a debate for educational purposes. (half the time i think we agree but make it look/sound like we disgree)

Maxprime
01-30-2004, 06:34 PM
You got to go and play with the guys we all watch on EPSN and you were a statistical fav on the hand you lost - I'd say it's a win for "dead money." Great story - go back next year and "pull a Moneymaker".

11pecans
01-30-2004, 06:35 PM
Let me add, I really hope my posts don't come off as condescending.

:lol: they do

I think you already know what he has before the flop. If he had a stronger hand like aces his raise would have been stronger.

By re-raising before the flop you didnt change the outcome of the hand, you increased the pot size and reduced your stack. In my opinion that is defintely the action to take if you are the large stack but not necessarily the action to take if you are the small stack. Your chips are your soldiers, dont waste them in meaningless battles and beware the larger armies.

After the flop you continued to work under the assumption that you still had the best hand which you didn't.

If you check or bet small and he becomes the agressor, maybe you misread him as AJ instead of a set, or perhaps you consider both as possibilities. IMHO, I still may play very conservitively if I have a small stack, which is worse, the false negative or false positive?

If you call the set you are eliminated, if you fold with the better hand then you lose the pot but are still in the tournament. At this point making the right decision is equal parts luck, instinct and the ability to read the other player.

There is a delicate balance between maximizing the pots that you win and minimizing the pots that you lose. As a small stack I think its clear which is the priority.

:horse:

Expunge
01-30-2004, 07:08 PM
as for 12packs idea. if you simply call you could get another player to raise it up still pre flop which you could then call/go all in (were there some people between you and andy?) (very good situation unless someone has AA)

if the rest fold you have 2700 in the pot and 4200 in chips. Now an ace on the flop is an easy fold (you didn't invest too much).

a junk flop allows you to sit back and see if anyone bets out. likely the smallest bet out is 1500, roughly half pot. at this point you don't know if its top pair or an overpair or even if andy has AA. Your bet to find out puts you all in and prolly only get called if your beat or if the opponent has an pocket pair bigger than the board but not as big as KK. or they will get odds to call a draw. (risky to bad)

a junk flop with everyone checking to you. you can make the bet 1500 (leaving 2700) giving you a decent chance at the pot. Someone will reraise you all in if they made their set, or they think you have nothing. it would be tough for them to slow play with 4 people in the pot. also gives approx odds to draw to a str or fl. (risky to good).

vs. bet of 2000 preflop. if someone raises all in you cant be sure they have AA or are trying to bully you or possibly QQ (terrible decision based on read)

if andy calls i don't see that it tells you between AK and a pair enough chips out there to warrent a call either way. the other two fold sticks you where you were.

if andy folds and next guy calls almost the same as andy.

if andy and next guy fold third guy can just call with AA (unlikely he has it though as with two people at 600 prior to his first action he likely raises it up on the first move, but again he can call with a pocket pair or AK maybe even AQs

all three could fold.

vs. going all in almost definate folds unless andy or guy next too him has AA, or QQ (AA very bad, QQ very good)

Actually i think the optimal situation would have been to go all in and get a call from a QQ (or other underpair) (this is better than giving a look at the flop)

I still go with All-in.
the 2000 is still getting greedy trying for the optimal situation, but risks more as you can't control the situation.

Expunge
01-30-2004, 07:17 PM
Let me add, I really hope my posts don't come off as condescending.

:lol: they do

I think you already know what he has before the flop. If he had a stronger hand like aces his raise would have been stronger.

By re-raising before the flop you didnt change the outcome of the hand, you increased the pot size and reduced your stack. In my opinion that is defintely the action to take if you are the large stack but not necessarily the action to take if you are the small stack. Your chips are your soldiers, dont waste them in meaningless battles and beware the larger armies.

After the flop you continued to work under the assumption that you still had the best hand which you didn't.

If you check or bet small and he becomes the agressor, maybe you misread him as AJ instead of a set, or perhaps you consider both as possibilities. IMHO, I still may play very conservitively if I have a small stack, which is worse, the false negative or false positive?

If you call the set you are eliminated, if you fold with the better hand then you lose the pot but are still in the tournament. At this point making the right decision is equal parts luck, instinct and the ability to read the other player.

There is a delicate balance between maximizing the pots that you win and minimizing the pots that you lose. As a small stack I think its clear which is the priority.

:horse:

I doubt andy's 600 says much about his hand. Its a standard raise so you can't put him on a hand. you bet more with AA you won't get a call and that is about the only hand you don't want to steal the blinds with.

At this point of the tournament his has about 1/2 the average stack that likely means he is 2nd lowest at his table. He's to a point where he needs to take a stab and winning a decent size pot or he ends up finishing 150 by the time the blinds get him. If he's willing to junk this hand on the flop for 600 he edges more towards luck of getting cards vs the luck of this particular hand. the play leading him to this situation puts him at this disadvantage. If he wins the hand he can play more normal again where 2000 is the correct bet.

FSAme
01-30-2004, 07:20 PM
for what it's worth, I go all-in preflop.

Bama Gambler
01-31-2004, 03:37 AM
Your chips are your soldiers, Couldn't aggree more

dont waste them in meaningless battles and beware the larger armies.I wasn't trying to waste them, but rather get them to reproduce

After the flop you continued to work under the assumption that you still had the best hand which you didn't.yup

If you check or bet small and he becomes the agressor, maybe you misread him as AJ instead of a set, or perhaps you consider both as possibilities. IMHO, I still may play very conservitively if I have a small stack, which is worse, the false negative or false positive?I agree about the AJ and that's one of the reasons why I pushed in. Hard for me to play passive when I have an overpair, especially when I'm short stacked.

11pecans
01-31-2004, 02:36 PM
:crazy:

Bama Gambler
02-04-2004, 12:12 PM
From the most respected poster on the 2+2 forum

There is a very high probability that Andy was making the stop-and-go play as suggested by Cris. He puts you on AK, and is getting 3:1 to call preflop and see what comes. If no A or K comes, he figures he's likely ahead, and bets the rest of your stack. If he flops a set, he check-calls. If he flops no set, and the A or K does come, he most likely check-folds.

Even if he assumes he's calling your whole stack, that's T4200 to win T6900, over 3:2 pot odds. Thus, he can fade your action even if you have an overpair 1/3 of the time, and overcards the other 2/3, and still be getting very slightly +EV on the play.

I don't think your play was a mistake, but I'd probably go all-in instead. There's actually a good chance he comes in with you anyway, and now you get to be the 4:1 favorite for all of his money, and don't let him get away if an A or K flops.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

11pecans
02-04-2004, 12:18 PM
the problem with your play was you essentially decided to go all in before the flop but you gave him the option of seeing the flop before calling the 2nd half of you bet

in this case it was easy for him to call after the flop cause he had the best hand

Expunge
02-04-2004, 01:30 PM
From the most respected poster on the 2+2 forum

There is a very high probability that Andy was making the stop-and-go play as suggested by Cris. He puts you on AK, and is getting 3:1 to call preflop and see what comes. If no A or K comes, he figures he's likely ahead, and bets the rest of your stack. If he flops a set, he check-calls. If he flops no set, and the A or K does come, he most likely check-folds.

Even if he assumes he's calling your whole stack, that's T4200 to win T6900, over 3:2 pot odds. Thus, he can fade your action even if you have an overpair 1/3 of the time, and overcards the other 2/3, and still be getting very slightly +EV on the play.

I don't think your play was a mistake, but I'd probably go all-in instead. There's actually a good chance he comes in with you anyway, and now you get to be the 4:1 favorite for all of his money, and don't let him get away if an A or K flops.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)


Funny Cris thinks you're they guy making the stop-n-go, and greg thinks andy is making the stop-n-go.

Bama Gambler
02-04-2004, 01:33 PM
Funny Cris thinks you're they guy making the stop-n-go, and greg thinks andy is making the stop-n-go.I think we both were making the stop-n-go. He misread my hand before the flop and I "misread" his after the flop. I put misread in quotes because I knew he had a pocket pair, but didn't know if he made the set. According to Greg's analysis, he would only check a flop without a King or Ace, if he hit the set. Of course if he had QQ, he might check.

Expunge
02-04-2004, 01:47 PM
Since that forum is horrible to navigate, let me know if you see any really good threads so i can check them out.

ps any chat with freeman about that second hand?

Bama Gambler
02-04-2004, 01:51 PM
Since that forum is horrible to navigate, let me know if you see any really good threads so i can check them out.Yeah it sucks.

ps any chat with freeman about that second hand?I emailed him the hand, but he has not reponded. Guess he is really busy with year-end reporting.

Sotally Tober
02-04-2004, 01:58 PM
Since that forum is horrible to navigate, let me know if you see any really good threads so i can check them out.

ps any chat with freeman about that second hand?

Yes it is. I've been trying to get comfortable with it for a week or two and it's just too hard. I'm sure there is lots of valuable reading and opinions there, I just don't have the time or patience to keep with it.

Bama Gambler
02-04-2004, 01:59 PM
This forum can really spoil ya.

Grits N Gravy
02-04-2004, 02:06 PM
Since that forum is horrible to navigate, let me know if you see any really good threads so i can check them out.

ps any chat with freeman about that second hand?

Yes it is. I've been trying to get comfortable with it for a week or two and it's just too hard. I'm sure there is lots of valuable reading and opinions there, I just don't have the time or patience to keep with it.


If you set up an ID on the site you can edit your preferences. One of the options is "flat mode" which allows you to view all of the messages in a thread at the same time, basically like this forum. It's still not the ideal site to navigate, but is a huge improvement over clicking a different link for every post.

Bama Gambler
02-04-2004, 02:09 PM
If you set up an ID on the site you can edit your preferences. One of the options is "flat mode" which allows you to view all of the messages in a thread at the same time, basically like this forum. It's still not the ideal site to navigate, but is a huge improvement over clicking a different link for every post.Yeah that makes a HUGE difference! I can't understand why anyone would want to view it the other way.

Sotally Tober
02-04-2004, 02:09 PM
As for the 2+2 site, I have to say I do like the essays. Entertaining to say the least. I also like cardplayer.com.

I found this too, pretty helpful in making quick calculations of odds. The formula gets worse when there are two cards to come and as you have more outs, but I figure if you have 10-20 outs, you probably don't need this chart to call or raise. But it does help in quickly estimating if you are getting the right pot odds.

http://casinogambling.about.com/library/weekly/aa050103.htm

Sotally Tober
02-04-2004, 02:11 PM
Since that forum is horrible to navigate, let me know if you see any really good threads so i can check them out.

ps any chat with freeman about that second hand?

Yes it is. I've been trying to get comfortable with it for a week or two and it's just too hard. I'm sure there is lots of valuable reading and opinions there, I just don't have the time or patience to keep with it.


If you set up an ID on the site you can edit your preferences. One of the options is "flat mode" which allows you to view all of the messages in a thread at the same time, basically like this forum. It's still not the ideal site to navigate, but is a huge improvement over clicking a different link for every post.

Thanks for the tip. I haven't done that yet. I'll get right on it.

Hummer
02-04-2004, 02:23 PM
This forum can really spoil ya.

Agree totally... and to the above comments about other poker forums being tough to navigate. Not to mention all the useless junk. Bad beats, heckling, etc.

Wigmeister General
12-03-2004, 02:27 PM
:viola: