Stock Picking Contest

[McUSA]

I want to start a picking a stock picking contest. You might ask why, and like mister nacho once surmised about himself, it is probably because I am a loser.

Rules:

1. You will pick two stocks in the S&P 500. I am limiting the choices to the S&P 500 to discourage highly speculative picks. One pick will be SHORT and one pick will be LONG. If you're an extreme novice, LONG means you hope the stock goes up and SHORT means you hope the stock will go down.

2. The contest will run from February 2 until close on February 27 (4 weeks).

3. Dividends matter! You will be credited (LONG) or debited (SHORT) any dividends paid in February. This should be reflected in the stock price.

4. I'll try and set up a public board with the picks once they are all in. I probably won't be able to set up the dividend return online.

5. Please post or PM me your picks by the end of the day Friday. Please include the symbol of the stock and an indication of whether you are going LONG or SHORT for each pick.

Below is link to the S&P 500 stocks in Excel:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/500_20040127_C.xls

[Expunge]

3. Dividends matter! You will be credited (LONG) or debited (SHORT) one months worth of dividends in your return. This will be done as long as your pick is currently paying dividends. The dividend does not have to be paid in February.


Don't you think you're double counting dividends? when they arn't paid in feb. Come on the price of the stock will take into account when the next dividend is.

[Gandalf]

Are we buying (or shorting) 1 share of the stock or 100,000 RF of the stock? E.g., is a 5% gain on a $100 stock twice as good as a 5% gain on a $50 stock?

[McUSA]

3. Dividends matter! You will be credited (LONG) or debited (SHORT) one months worth of dividends in your return. This will be done as long as your pick is currently paying dividends. The dividend does not have to be paid in February.


Don't you think you're double counting dividends? when they arn't paid in feb. Come on the price of the stock will take into account when the next dividend is.

Good point. I've edited the rules to reflect that.

[McUSA]

Are we buying (or shorting) 1 share of the stock or 100,000 RF of the stock? E.g., is a 5% gain on a $100 stock twice as good as a 5% gain on a $50 stock?

100,000 RF. Only percentage returns matter. The contest will be based on the cumulative return of the two picks (equally weighted).

[Westley]

Dividends still seem unfair - if the stock pays a dividend, the price should drop by the same amount on the ex dividend date. If you only credit one month's dividend, then people have an incentive to not pick those stocks that pay.

[McUSA]

That's what I meant - the full dividend would be credited or debited not just one months worth. I've made the change.

[McUSA]

:bump:

We've got 4 contestants so far. Let's get a few more!

[Westley]

Well, I figure ETN is the most expensive, so it has to go down, right? And, ADCT is the lowest priced, so it has nowhere to go but up!

That's my picks. Probably shouldn't have shared my technologically advances picking mechanism, huh?

[McUSA]

Okay, we have 5 contestants. You can check the positions by signing in the following link. The ID is "stockactuary" and the password is "rebels" Return does not include dividends paid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_1&d=v4

Note to AHOW: You were too quick with the Winn-Dixie pick. But it was a nice pick!

[ahow]

Okay, we have 5 contestants. You can check the positions by signing in the following link. The ID is "stockactuary" and the password is "rebels" Return does not include dividends paid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_1&d=v4

Note to AHOW: You were too quick with the Winn-Dixie pick. But it was a nice pick!Winn-Dixie was a nice pick in bizarro world...

[Macroman]

Okay, we have 5 contestants. You can check the positions by signing in the following link. The ID is "stockactuary" and the password is "rebels" Return does not include dividends paid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_1&d=v4

Note to AHOW: You were too quick with the Winn-Dixie pick. But it was a nice pick!Winn-Dixie was a nice pick in bizarro world...

Winn-Dixie has continued to go down in after-hours trading. You may come out alright after all.

[McUSA]

Results after the first week:

PLAYER LONG SHORT TOTAL
AHOW 0.9% 5.6% 6.6%
GANDALF 3.0% 1.7% 4.8%
MCUSA 3.5% -3.9% -0.6%
WESTLEY -5.0% -1.9% -6.8%
T-ROY BOY-5.0% -3.8% -8.6%

[T-roy Boy]

Why didn't I do just the opposite?

[McUSA]

Well, at this point, that would be a good strategy for everyone except AHOW.

Results after 2 weeks:

NAME LONG SHORT TOTAL
AHOW 2.8% -0.2% 2.6%
GANDALF 4.8% -4.9% -0.4%
MCUSA 2.8% -7.6% -5.0%
T-ROY -7.0% -2.1% -9.0%
WESTLEY -7.0% -2.5% -9.3%

[Westley]

Wow! We suck!

[McUSA]

Final Results (Congrats to AHOW, but a generally poor performance by this group)

NAME LONG SHORT TOTAL
AHOW 4.6% 6.7% 11.6%
MCUSA 7.5% -6.6% 0.4%
GANDALF 5.6% -6.4% -1.2%
T-ROY BOY-14.7% 1.8% -13.1%
WESTLEY -14.7% -1.3% -15.8%

Best pick was KBH, worst pick was ADCT.