Poker - $300 SNG Hand

[Bama Gambler]

Decided to give a $300 SNG a shot since I was running hot yesterday. I felt good when it was down to 4 players and I was the chip leader. Unfortunetly I finished 4th. It wasn't my best performance for sure. What do you guys think of the following hand?

Blinds 75-150

Button: wchen (3065 in chips)
Small Blind: garrygates (2895 in chips)
Big Blind: Bama Gambler (5120 in chips)
UTG: Tipex (2420 in chips)

Dealt to Bama Gambler [Ac 9c]

Tipex: raises 300 to 450
wchen: folds
garrygates: folds
Bama Gambler: calls 300

Pot - 1050

FLOP - [5h Qh 9s]

Your move? Would anyone play different pre-flop? BTW, Tipex is pretty aggressive. Especially since he is small stack.

[Happy Extinction]

JMO,

You have 1/2 the chips and it is pretty early in the tourney. Fold your A9s and let the middle size chips pound on each other for a while.

If you do want to play, I don't know if I like the smooth call against an aggressive player - just me, but I might re-raise to show aggression and set yourself up if you want to hit the pot hard after the flop. Alos, sends a message that you may protect your blinds in the future, go pick on someone else.

If he has AA, KK he will go over the to pall in and you can fold having lost 800 chips or so.

Since you smooth called and got no help on the flop, you are not really in a position to start betting and show aggression - especially since he is liable to call with a weak hand as well. Perhaps a pot sized bet to gain information (you can afford it) but when he raises you would have to fold, despite the fact he may be overly aggressive. I think the only play is check fold. If you get check - check then maybe a pot-sized bet on the turn, but again, be prepared to fold.

But take what I say with a grain of salt since I am only playing $10 Sng's these days

[Bama Gambler]

Thanks Scoot! I agree with most of what you said except I did get help on the flop. Middle pair with top kicker is pretty strong 4 handed. Also, if I bet the pot on the flop and he re-raises I will have to call since I would be getting 4.37:1.

I think you hit the nail on the head when you said, "You have 1/2 the chips and it is pretty early in the tourney. Fold your A9s and let the middle size chips pound on each other for a while."

I think I should either fold or re-raise all-in preflop. I'm interested in more responses.

[vegas]

I would play the pre-flop just as you did ... I'd call.

After the flop, I am feeling pretty not all that happy with catching a pair of nines. That pair is fairly week against a guy who raised in the first position pre-flop. Also, you did not get anything to help you with a flush draw, so basically I am thinking that I am beat. Check-fold.

[Bama Gambler]

I'd actually rather catch the 9 than the Ace since I may be out kicked. Hands that he might hold that worry me AA-TT, AQ, and KQ. I just don't think he has AA-QQ because I think he would slowplay these. JJ-TT he might raise all-in preflop since the don't like a lot of action. AQ is very likely and KQ is somewhat likely (but I think he would have either put all-in or folded pre-flop with KQ). I think Ax is very likely. But how to proceed?

Results coming later.

[Expunge]

I think i might just call preflop too. Tough one depending on feel i could see all 3 options preflop. 4 if you count reraise to ~1000 diff from reraise all in. Much depends on read of my opponent (which hasn't been all that great this past week).

Ok if i play it as a call i again can see either check fold, or coming out for a bet, or even a check raise (depending on opponents bet amount). This depends will he come over the top of you with a bluff?

Just thinking about it makes me like the call only if you're willing to dump your hand when you get anything less than 2 pair or a flush draw. And more willing to fold preflop.

Then again in the other thread i played ATo in the same position, except i was a smaller stack.

[Bama Gambler]

Here's the rest of the hand:

Bama Gambler: bets 900
Tipex: raises 1070 to 1970 and is all-in
Bama Gambler said, "A9"

Long pause here, hoping to gain more information.

Bama Gambler: calls 1070

*** TURN *** [5h Qh 9s] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [5h Qh 9s Kc] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bama Gambler: shows [Ac 9c] (a pair of Nines)
Tipex: shows [8h Qs] (a pair of Queens)
Tipex collected 4915 from pot


Once I bet the 900 I think my call was correct since I was getting over 4:1. I thought this hand out while I was playing and I told myself if you bet 900 and he raises you will have to call, so go ahead and bet all-in or just check-fold. I didn't listen to myself, which is surprising b/c lately I have been.

[Castle7]

I would have called as well preflop, given he has just a few too many chips to push for an all-in semi-bluff here. I would check-fold after that flop, I would not want to risk any more chips with a so-so hand. Flop big or get out. Although I would probably bet on the turn if this guy, who you say is aggressive, checks the flop also.

[Bama Gambler]

Although I would probably bet on the turn if this guy, who you say is aggressive, checks the flop also.I agree, but I was also 95% sure he would bet if I checked, I was also 80% certain he would raise if I bet.

[Expunge]

I was also 80% certain he would raise if I bet.

This should say check fold. If he's willing to bluff/semi bluff over the top of you you just have to cut your losses. Also helps me fold preflop when i'd be playing someone this aggressive.

I'd be more apt to call preflop if its a solid player that i think i have a decent shot at buying the pot post flop if nothing good comes.

[Bama Gambler]

I was also 80% certain he would raise if I bet.

This should say check fold.or all-in. In other words, don't give him a chance to bluff. If I think I'm beat then check-fold. If I think I have the best hand then all-in. He may even lay down the better hand if I bet all-in. For example, he may fold QJ.

[Expunge]

I was also 80% certain he would raise if I bet.

This should say check fold.or all-in. In other words, don't give him a chance to bluff. If I think I'm beat then check-fold. If I think I have the best hand then all-in. He may even lay down the better hand if I bet all-in. For example, he may fold QJ.

Yes all-in is the gambling option. But i highly doubt you get him to fold with the best hand.

[Expunge]

i don;t like the gambling option here as a loss takes you from leading to the short stack.

[Bama Gambler]

i don;t like the gambling option here as a loss takes you from leading to the short stack.That's a great point!

[minus790]

My gut instinct is bet the pot, and lay it down if he comes over the top.

You mention the 4:1 odds, but that's not really the way to think about it in a tournament.

If this were real money, all we'd be concerned about is those odds. But here, we're more concerned about our chances of being the last man standing...

And you are not getting 4:1 odds on your marginal likelihood of winning the tournament.

[Bama Gambler]

You mention the 4:1 odds, but that's not really the way to think about it in a tournament. Yes and no. More on this later.

If this were real money, all we'd be concerned about is those odds. But here, we're more concerned about our chances of being the last man standing...True.

And you are not getting 4:1 odds on your marginal likelihood of winning the tournament.Are you sure?

The whole idea is expected value of the play. Is calling his raise a higher expected value play than folding. I'm talking about expected payout from this tournament. In other words, how does calling or folding affect the distribution of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place?

It's hard to do that kind of anaylsis during a hand, so I settled for getting more than 4:1 and if I lose the hand I still have a chance to finish first. If losing the hand meant I was almost certain to finish 4th then it's an easy fold.

[T-roy Boy]

You wouldn't have been in this situation if you folded pre-flop. With A-9 suit and you being the BB - come on - He bet 3x BB - a raise often representing pairs (you should know this - it is almost your signiture). What if YOU were the one raising 3x? What do you want others to think you have? Let the small stack play other small stacks. Someone will go out b4 you.

Anyway check that flop - yes you have a pair, he's got 450 of your chips, big deal. Get a freebie. If he checks - great, if he bets small - wonderful. You still wont lose much of your stack. Depends on what he bet at this point - he'd bet small if he had a small pair, large if he had a set or overpair.

Chip leader and 4 on the table. I would click the "away" button and just watch for AWESOME cards and a free BB position. Let the small chip stacks battle it out. Someone will go out within 5 hands - at a mere 450 chips to you. FOLD and guarantee a payout!!!

[T-roy Boy]

Actually - I betcha if you clicked the "away" button - you'd a gotten 2nd. Of course check your BB's just to prove that you are still in the room and they don't get an idea of you just posting and folding.

I did this in a SNG at a $30 +3 Omaha Hi/Lo
I was chip leader and 5 to go - I had no desire to play anymore cause my daughters woke up from their naps and wanted me to build them a tent. So Indstead of going all in and losing, I clicked the away button and got 2nd place. I betcha the first place guy was pissed - he had to go through all those blinds...

[Expunge]

Actually - I betcha if you clicked the "away" button - you'd a gotten 2nd. Of course check your BB's just to prove that you are still in the room and they don't get an idea of you just posting and folding.

I did this in a SNG at a $30 +3 Omaha Hi/Lo
I was chip leader and 5 to go - I had no desire to play anymore cause my daughters woke up from their naps and wanted me to build them a tent. So Indstead of going all in and losing, I clicked the away button and got 2nd place. I betcha the first place guy was pissed - he had to go through all those blinds...

I'd be quite happy to be 1st. id rather take the time to get blind after blind and be assured the win than have to run the risk of taking 2nd. Plus playing would likely take longer anyways.

[T-roy Boy]

"I'd be quite happy to be 1st. id rather take the time to get blind after blind and be assured the win than have to run the risk of taking 2nd. Plus playing would likely take longer anyways."

Betcha you'd change your mind for a $300 buy in. You'd be happy to be 3rd also, just not "quite" as - right. Once you are in the money - then haul a$$ and take those blinds.

[T-roy Boy]

I play patiently most the time. Oh, I can be aggressive, but only at at the right time. This has proven worthy - IN THE MONEY - then on my way to the next table.

I believe poker is 33% skill, patience and luck on the Internet.

[Expunge]

"I'd be quite happy to be 1st. id rather take the time to get blind after blind and be assured the win than have to run the risk of taking 2nd. Plus playing would likely take longer anyways."

Betcha you'd change your mind for a $300 buy in. You'd be happy to be 3rd also, just not "quite" as - right. Once you are in the money - then haul a$$ and take those blinds.

My comment was in regards to this...

I betcha the first place guy was pissed - he had to go through all those blinds...

Yes i'd be happy with 3rd even. Always happy to turn a profit. But i'd also be pissed that i wasn't able to be patient enough not to get a nearly free upgrade to second.

[FSAme]

I play patiently most the time. Oh, I can be aggressive, but only at at the right time. This has proven worthy - IN THE MONEY - then on my way to the next table.

I believe poker is 33% skill, patience and luck on the Internet.

I'd say 50% patience, 30% skill, 20% luck.

In online multitable tourneys, it's 75% patience.

[minus790]

Agree with everything you're saying.

Let's model this out, using some quick assumptions, just to give us a point of reference.

1) Your chance of winning the tournament = the proportion of the table chips you own. Didn't Sklansky suggest something similar to this is true in 'Tournament Poker for Advanced Players?'

2) All players have equal skill level


Let's explore 3 very simplistic options
1) Check and fold eventually. Basically, fold.
2) Bet the pot and fold if raised all in. Let's say the raise is 70%.
Winning here is, therefore, a 30% chance.
3) Bet and call if raised all in. You have, say, a 40% chance of winning.

You might not totally agree with the odds, but they're ballpark for our purposes.

Results:
1) You'll still have the chip lead. 4670-3065-2945-2820
2) You'll fall to 2nd place if he raises. 3920-3695-3065-2820
If he folds, You'll still have the chip lead. 5645-3065-2820-1970
3a) 40% of the time, you'll have a commanding lead with 3 people left. 7615-3065-2820
3b) 60% of the time, you'll be the short stack. 4915-3065-2820-2700

Estimated E(%) of placing 1-2-3, somewhat guesstimated:
1) 35-30-25
2) 21-27-27
or... 40-30-20
3a) 57-22-21
3b) 20-25-25

1) is worth $630 in prizes
2) $480 vs $660
3a) $786
3b) $450

So, you can take option 1) as the basecase.
Or, you can bet here and improve your winnings by $30 the 30% of the time he folds. The other 70% of the time, you will definitely have to call, since folding is worth $480 while you risk $30 of value to potentially gain $306 if your call is right. WOW! That's way better than bet and fold, even if you don't quite buy my aggressive assumptions about his raising tendency.
It does make sense to check and fold, since playing this hand out stands to gain $156 and lose $180, and you're probably not that heavily favored to win the hand.

This is really fascinating to work through a problem like this. Help me if I'm missing something in the thought process - I'm not particularly worried about the odds parameters, more the logic.

[Bama Gambler]

Someone will go out within 5 hands - at a mere 450 chips to you.If someone was low then this maybe true, but no one was low. With the blinds that high you can't simply sit out. We got 4 handed at hand #60. This hand was #68. I busted on hand #86.

FOLD and guarantee a payout!!!I'm not looking for a guaranteed payout, I'm looking to maximize my expected payout. Which may or may not have been aceived by folding this hand. I'm not sure yet.

[Hummer]

Chip leader and 4 on the table. I would click the "away" button and just watch for AWESOME cards and a free BB position. Let the small chip stacks battle it out. Someone will go out within 5 hands - at a mere 450 chips to you. FOLD and guarantee a payout!!!

This is not true at the higher table levels. Even at the $50 and $100 SNGs, I notice a drastic difference from $30. Players are much more patient (assuming no short stack). I've been in a few of these tourneys where it's down to 4 players, but takes 20-30 hands to get the 4th player out. On the $30 ones, I don't think it's ever taken more than 10 hands.

[Sotally Tober]

:bump:

Looks like Bama took on a WSOP champ.

[T-roy Boy]

Just read the thread - did I actually say those things?

[Happy Entrails]

:bump:

Looks like Bama took on a WSOP champ.

Which one? I don't keep up with the names...

[Cohete009]

Just read the thread - did I actually say those things?

yeah, sounds like you need a seminar. AGAIN!! ;)

[fallout]

:bump:

Looks like Bama took on a WSOP champ.

Which one? I don't keep up with the names...

I believe wchen is William Chen.

I think he also won the WCOOP main event for like 600k the other day.

I might be wrong on both counts.

[Sotally Tober]

Which one? I don't keep up with the names...

I believe wchen is William Chen.

I think he also won the WCOOP main event for like 600k the other day.

I might be wrong on both counts.
JC Tran won the WCOOP Main Event.

Chen won 2 bracelets this year.

[Matty]

Check/raise all in, no doubt about it. Anything that beats you is going to double up off you, nothing you can do about it at this point - so your only goal should be to get action from hands that you beat. He will make a continuation bet and fold to your raise if he has nothing.

[hardinda]

Check/raise all in, no doubt about it. Anything that beats you is going to double up off you, nothing you can do about it at this point - so your only goal should be to get action from hands that you beat. He will make a continuation bet and fold to your raise if he has nothing.

Thanks for the advice - just a few years too late

[fallout]

I believe wchen is William Chen.

I think he also won the WCOOP main event for like 600k the other day.

I might be wrong on both counts.
JC Tran won the WCOOP Main Event.

Chen won 2 bracelets this year.

1/2 right. :)

I'll take it.

[Bama Gambler]

Freeman used to mentor wchen in Go.

[Bama Gambler]

book by wchen

http://www.amazon.com/Mathematics-Poker-William-Chen/dp/1886070253/sr=8-2/qid=1160163837/ref=pd_bbs_2/102-3136630-0601762?ie=UTF8&s=books

[Arachn]

I've got that poker on preorder. I'd like poker to still be legal when its published.