The Return of the Exam Committee

[Mr. Penguin]

A once upon a time classic RF game. Rules are lifted from Cho Da's original rules (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=3618&start=0) with some suggested modifications:

Once upon a time the students of the Rebel Outpost Actuarial Society were waiting on the results of their last exam. Unbeknownst to them, the exam committee had been hijacked by a band of students desperate to keep the other students from obtaining their FROAS. This band, not content with merely changing grade reports, set out to execute the remaining students. In an effort to protect their future and the honor of the FROAS designation, the students will attempt to unmask and lynch the members of the ersatz exam committee.

Here are the ground rules:



Once the student population is set (by you all expressing interest), I will randomly select the members of the exam committee.

The exam committee will know who else is on the exam committee.

I will also randomly select one "slayer". The slayer will NOT be a member of the EC and will remain secret to all except me, unless they are executed, in which case a remaining non-EC student will arise (random selection) as the new slayer. However, if only one EC member remains, no new slayer will be chosen.

The game starts when the exam committee PMs me with their first victim. I will then PM the victim who can write their own ending.

What follows next is open discussion among the students as to who might be on the committee, and by public voting for lynching. Once a majority of the remaining students (which includes the committee) votes for a particular student, he or she will get lynched. The lynchee will write their won death scene. After the lynching, I will reveal whether the lynchee was a member of the committee.

Voting is a follows: use BOLD to highlight votes and vote changes. Don't use bold for anything else. This is so I can try to follow the vote counts.

Next, the slayer will notify me via PM as to who he/she believes is an EC member that they wish to slay. I will notify that member and they will write their own death scene as well.

After a lynching and slaying, or after deadline passes without a majority selecting someone, the committee will pick another victim.

The committee wins if they rubout all of the other students. The students win if they lynch all members of the committee.

Depending on interest there will most likely be 2 members of the committee to start.

I am leaning toward having executions once or twice per week.



Interested?

The players are, in no particular order:

42 - Slain by EC - Innocent Student
Jables - Slain by The Slayer - EC!!!
Ebenezer Kohlx - Lynched by students - Innocent Student
Traina - Slain by The Slayer - Innocent Student
RedSoxFan - Lynched by students - Innocent Student
Hagbard Celine - Slain by EC - Innocent Student
CubedBee - Slain by The Students - EC!!!
Voter
plain M&M
Maine-iac - Slain by The Slayer - Innocent Student
Cho Da - Slain by EC - Innocent Student
Gandalf - Slain by EC - Innocent Student
Avi
Ahow - Slain by The Slayer - Innocent Student
USCanuck
Asynchronous - Slain by EC - Innocent Student
duodenum - Lynched by students - Innocent Student
All Clear
Zakarin - Lynched by students - Innocent Student
Kenshiro - Slain by EC - Innocent Student
Rocky
Anonymouse
Macroman
4sigma
fallout - Slain by The Slayer - Innocent Student
cmu_stu - Lynched by students - Innocent Student
Polly Nomial - Lynched by students - Innocent Student
J.T. - Slain by EC - The Slayer!!!!
werewolf

The students win!!!!

And the Red Swingline goes to the esteemed Avi!!!!

Each round goes as follows:

1. EC notifies me who they will kill
2. I notify the victim who writes their own death scene.
3. The students discuss various ideas and reach a consensus on who their own victim will be. They have no more than 72 hours to build a consensus or lose their turn.
4. Once that consensus is met, I will notify the victim to write their own death scene.
5. The slayer (if there is one) notifies me who their victim will be.
6. I notify said victim who then writes their own death.

Rinse, Lather, Repeat.

Awarding of the stapler:

Each student (innocent or not) may post who he thinks the 2 EC members are. This can be done at any time, including after one of the EC members has been discovered, up until the identities of both EC have been revealed.

Formal guesses must be posted in ORANGE TEXT. Only one formal guess per student, for the entire game. Ghosts remain eligible to vote the same as living students. EC may post guesses in order to divert attention from themselves, but are not eligible to win the stapler in this manner.

If the students end up winning the game, the first innocent student who correctly named the 2 EC members is declared the winner of the stapler. Example: If EC is urysohn and E Blackadder, then the first student to formally post their guess that urysohn and E Blackadder are the EC wins the stapler, provided that the students win the game.

In the event that the Slayer slays both members of the EC, The Slayer wins the stapler, regardless of what others have guessed.

Posts containing formal guesses which are subsequently edited may be declared null and void, and considered a forfeiture of that student's attempt to win the stapler, subject to the discretion of Mr. Penguin.

If nobody correctly guesses the identities of both EC before the announcement of the 2nd EC death, the stapler is awarded:

-- to the first innocent student who voted to lynch the the last remaining EC member, in the round when that EC member was lynched, or
-- to the slayer, if the last EC member was slain.


If EC wins, the surviving EC wins the stapler, if there is only one EC member left. If they both survive, tiebreak is based who deceived the greatest number of innocent students (i.e. the least votes from actual innocent students). So suppose 23 students posted guesses, and EB is listed in 8 guesses and urysohn is listed in 6 guesses. Then EB deceived 15 students and urysohn deceived 17 students, so urysohn is declared the winner.

If there is still a tie (unlikely but possible), tiebreak goes to the EC member who was the first one to deceive a student that the other EC member did not. For example, if the first student guessed EC was urysohn and Obi-Wan Kenobi, then the student was deceived by E Blackadder but not by urysohn, so E Blackadder is declared the winner.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

11 participants live

Unofficial Update:
Votes:
CubedBee (Avi)
Macroman (Werewolf)
4sigma (Cho Da)
All Clear (J.T.)
Voter (RedSoxFan)
Avi (Macroman)
Anonymouse (CubedBee)
plain M&M (ahow)
Werewolf (cmu_stu)
USCanuck (Anonymouse)
Rocky (Hagbard Celine)

[Traina]

Woohoo....I'm in again!

[RedSoxFan]

I'll give it a try.

[Hagbard Celine]

I'm in.

[cubedbee]

I'll play

[Voter]

Sounds like fun, I'll play.

[plain M&M]

It looks like fun. I'll play.

[Maine-iac]

I'm in.

[Cho Da]

Salt the Slug. I'm in.

[Mr. Penguin]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.

[Gandalf]

I'll give it a try.

[Avi]

Why not. It can't be THAT much harder than Insurance Contract Analysis :exams:

[ahow]

Sure thing...

[USCanuck]

hmm.... what the heck, count me in

[Asynchronous]

I'm in!

[All Clear]

I'll play, though on most instances can only post during evenings. And for good reason- I just read through 14 pages of the old game, followed by making chess moves in my five tournament games. Took almost 2 hours.... This is why I stopped checking the RF during the day. :-)

[Zakarin]

Count me in

[Kenshiro]

I'm in.

[Rocky]

Count me in...

[Klaymen]

Ich auch!

[Macroman]

I'll try.

[4sigma]

I'm in.

[fallout]

Me too please.

[abacustwo]

I'll play.

[urysohn]

Very devious -- Penguin starts an "Exam Committee" game just in time to distract student from exams they should be cramming for.
Nice work, secret EC leader!

(I'm out, no time for an organized game. Go EC!! Errrrr, I mean "go students!" yeah, that's it)

[Polly Nomial]

My goodness! What turnout! How can I resist? I'm in!

[Mr. Penguin]

Three items of note:

Glenn has donated a red swingline for the winner. Most likely, there will not be a solitary winner, so the winner of the swingline will be chosen by rnadom by myself.

I made a slight modification to the slayer rules. If only one EC member remains when a slayer is killed, there will be NO new slayer chosen and the slayer turn will be skipped.

And finally, the deadline for entry into the game is Wednesday morning, 11am eastern. EC members and slayer will be selected by 1pm that afternoon and then the game will be on.

[J.T.]

I'll give it a shot.

[42]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake:

[Mr. Penguin]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake:

Well, I don't want to call attention to you but...

wooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Actually, I held off starting the game, hoping you'd join!

I missed you, man.

[Jables]

Well, if 42 is in, count me in too!

Finally, the RF can welcome the return of... urysohn :D

[Traina]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake:

:party:

[duodenum]

I'm in.

[Maine-iac]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake:

:party:

Double :party: :party: !!!

[Cho Da]

Salt the slug. :blah:

[Avi]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake: HES BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:party:

:band1:

:band2:

:rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2: :rock1: :rock2:

[urysohn]

Finally, the RF can welcome the return of... urysohn :D
You rang?

[ahow]

Ok, it sounds like everyone is here:
42? Check.
urysohn? Check.
Andy Lang? Houston, we have a problem...

[urysohn]

Andy Lang? Houston, we have a problem...
Not really a problem so much as a :party:
He's been busy dominating post count over on the Desert.

[Werewolf]

I'd like to give this game a try.

[Mr. Penguin]

Entries are closed. I've updated my first post to include the names of all players, along with a synopsis of how each round will be played. I will be editing the list to show their current status in the game.

One small addendum to the rules: if the Slayer is killed by either the EC or the students in any particular round, the Slayer turn is skipped for that round but returns with the new slayer in the next round. Of course, the previous addendum on there not being a new slayer selected if only one member of the EC remains is still in effect.

EC members and the Slayer have been notified. Good luck to all.

[42]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake:

:party:

Double :party: :party: !!!

Thanks, sweetie - I missed you too! :kiss:


But don't think for a moment that I have forgotten that you were one of the Exam Committee members in the last game, and that you mercilessly sprayed me with salt water. A slug never forgets. :evil:

[Traina]

Fine. Ignore me. *sulk* It's not as if I threw a party for you or anything

[Gandalf]

Ignoring Traina.? What sort of cold heart must someone have to do that? Is there a group that would have members so cold-hearted?

Of course I'm glad to have him back, but I've got this big inventory of salt I'm hoping someone will buy from me.

[J.T.]

Wow, 42 is back. It will be a wierd game trying to figure out who to lynch, kill, salt, etc.

p.s. Good to see you 42!

[42]

Fine. Ignore me. *sulk* It's not as if I threw a party for you or anything
Ignore you?? Are you kidding? I was just saving the best for last! :D

How you doin'? :wink:

[Traina]

:clap:
Just cool...how you doin'?

[Cho Da]

Vote: 42 :slug:

[Mr. Penguin]

I was just asked how many EC members there are. I thought I had stated this before, but just in case I didn't, there are 2.

And hopefully they will decide on their first victim very soon.

[Cho Da]

I was just asked how many EC members there are. I thought I had stated this before, but just in case I didn't, there are 2.

And hopefully they will decide on their first victim very soon.Oh, was I supposed to PM that to you?

[Avi]

I was just asked how many EC members there are. I thought I had stated this before, but just in case I didn't, there are 2.

And hopefully they will decide on their first victim very soon.Oh, was I supposed to PM that to you?Hey, this isn't Diplomacy, or is it? :burn:

[Gandalf]

I will also randomly select one "slayer". The slayer will NOT be a member of the EC and will remain secret to all except me, unless they are executed, in which case a remaining non-EC student will arise (random selection) as the new slayer. However, if only one EC member remains, no new slayer will be chosen.

Rule clarifications, please:
1. Is the slayer allowed to announce he is the slayer?
2. Is someone who is not the slayer allowed to claim he is the slayer?

[Mr. Penguin]

I will also randomly select one "slayer". The slayer will NOT be a member of the EC and will remain secret to all except me, unless they are executed, in which case a remaining non-EC student will arise (random selection) as the new slayer. However, if only one EC member remains, no new slayer will be chosen.

Rule clarifications, please:
1. Is the slayer allowed to announce he is the slayer?
2. Is someone who is not the slayer allowed to claim he is the slayer?

People can say whetever they like. Meaning the true slayer can announce themselves as such (or not).

And someone who isn't is free to claim that they're the slayer or EC, if they want.

[Gandalf]

Tentative student strategy: does this make sense?
Premises:
1. We never want to take out the slayer, since we lose a shot at the EC if we do.
2. We do not want the slayer known, since then the EC will take him out and we lose a shot.

Therefore:
1. No one should claim to be the slayer unless in imminent danger of execution.
2. Before casting a decisive vote for execution, we should give that person time to declare if he is the slayer, and if he claims to be, spare him. A non-slayer should accept his doom rather than claim to be slayer (since step 3 will nail him anyway.)
3. If someone who is not the slayer claims to be slayer, the real slayer should slay him.

Advantages (based on n players including 2 EC when the student committee chooses a lynching):
Student committee has a 2/N-1 chance of success (N-1 since they never lynch the slayer).
Slayer always survives, thus he gets a 2/N-2 chance of success.

But Slayer is sure to be executed by the EC next round, so we lose the 2/N-4 chance the new slayer would have then (loss is marginally slighter than this, since if committee had lynched the original slayer, the EC might happen to kill the new slayer).

This seems better than risking having the students lynch the slayer.

[Voter]

Interesting approach, G. However, I'm a little suspicious.

While I'm thankful for the help you provide in the exam forums, it certainly makes you seem like an EC type.

Now you come out posting as a leader of the students. Hmmm..... :-?

Trying too hard, perhaps???

[cubedbee]

This seems like a bad idea. Let's hypothetically say that at every single lynching, the would be lynchee claims to be the slayer to save themselves. Normally, the EC would be very likely to kill these people that claim to be the slayer, on the off chance that they were. However, if the EC knows we have agreed to your rules, then they will be expect the true slayer to kill fake slayers, and will kill someone else. They won't have to waste their kills on counterfeits and will have a greater chance at killing the real slayer.

[Gandalf]

Voter:

Perhaps. I was EC in game 1. I think it's going to be next to impossible to conclude who is EC from their actions, so we might as well adopt strategies that give us the best chance to get lucky.

If you want to lynch me first, go ahead. I'm not EC this game, but then everyone will claim that, so I'm as likely as anyone.

Or maybe not as likely as anyone. Shouldn't we be more suspicious of someone who seems to be proposing lynching someone who apparently is suggesting a good student strategy...?

[ahow]

Voter:

Perhaps. I was EC in game 1. I think it's going to be next to impossible to conclude who is EC from their actions, so we might as well adopt strategies that give us the best chance to get lucky.

If you want to lynch me first, go ahead. I'm not EC this game, but then everyone will claim that, so I'm as likely as anyone.

Or maybe not as likely as anyone. Shouldn't we be more suspicious of someone who seems to be proposing lynching someone who apparently is suggesting a good student strategy...?Ok, let's lynch Voter...

[Gandalf]

This seems like a bad idea. Let's hypothetically say that at every single lynching, the would be lynchee claims to be the slayer to save themselves. Normally, the EC would be very likely to kill these people that claim to be the slayer, on the off chance that they were. However, if the EC knows we have agreed to your rules, then they will be expect the true slayer to kill fake slayers, and will kill someone else. They won't have to waste their kills on counterfeits and will have a greater chance at killing the real slayer.
Wrong. Students win if the EC dies, independent of which individual students survive. So the would-be lynchee has no incentive to claim to be the slayer when he is not. In any case, he gains only one round: my suggestion #3 was that if anyone claims to be the slayer when he is not, the real slayer always kill that person next (since otherwise EC could escape by claiming to be the slayer).

I'm not sure whether this strategy is optimal in the very late rounds, but I think it must be good (at least, better than random) for the early rounds. As we get to the late rounds, it can be rethought.

[Mr. Penguin]

Paranoia already running rampant. :D

The EC have chosen their first victim. Hopefully we will see a death scene before the afternoon is out...

[Gandalf]

This does create opportunities for bluffing. E.g., suppose X falsely declarers he is the slayer. Y is supposed to slay him, but doesn't. Apparently, to the EC, X really was the slayer, so they take him out. If for EC doesn't take him out, then Y concludes X is EC, and takes him out next round.

That's an interesting possibility that may marginally improve the student situation. But in general I think it's bad for the students to claim to be the slayer when they aren't. I know it's bad for the students to lynch the slayer, so they should make sure they don't.

[Maine-iac]

Tentatively, I think I agree with your strategy, G. If the EC takes out the slayer though, I know a new one is appointed (as long as more than one EC remains) but I don't think that happens until after the students lynch someone. So an EC in danger of lynching could claim to be the slayer, no one contradicts, and he is off the hook, but only until a new slayer is appointed. I guess that works . . . . :-?

[Voter]

Or maybe not as likely as anyone. Shouldn't we be more suspicious of someone who seems to be proposing lynching someone who apparently is suggesting a good student strategy...?
<nervously sweating emoticon>Yeah, well, uh...

I saw Gandalf with the strawberries!

[Polly Nomial]

What if the victim refuses to die???

[Maine-iac]

Then beware the penguin.


Doobie, doobie, dooo . . . . .

[Gandalf]

Tentatively, I think I agree with your strategy, G. If the EC takes out the slayer though, I know a new one is appointed (as long as more than one EC remains) but I don't think that happens until after the students lynch someone. So an EC in danger of lynching could claim to be the slayer, no one contradicts, and he is off the hook, but only until a new slayer is appointed. I guess that works . . . . :-?
I hadn't thought about that situation, but I think it works, even if only one EC remains. If EC kills the slayer, the slayer should reveal his role in his death scene, so students will know that no one can legitimately claim to be the slayer that round.

[plain M&M]

This does create opportunities for bluffing. E.g., suppose X falsely declarers he is the slayer. Y is supposed to slay him, but doesn't. Apparently, to the EC, X really was the slayer, so they take him out. If for EC doesn't take him out, then Y concludes X is EC, and takes him out next round.

That's an interesting possibility that may marginally improve the student situation. But in general I think it's bad for the students to claim to be the slayer when they aren't. I know it's bad for the students to lynch the slayer, so they should make sure they don't.

I had thought about this as well, but I think it only marginally improves the student situation if at all. The slayer may bluff the EC, but the EC response in return may be to bluff the slayer by keeping X alive. Plus, what happens if the next player targeted for lynching falsely claims to be the slayer as well?

I think we the students are better off with Gandalf's original plan, at least at the beginning.

[42]

People can say whetever they like. Meaning the true slayer can announce themselves as such (or not).

And someone who isn't is free to claim that they're the slayer or EC, if they want.
OK, then I'd just like to say that I may or may not be the slayer. :judge: Or EC. :danim: Or a student. :D Or a slug. :slug:

[J.T.]

"What we have here is a failure to communicate." :roll:

What we are saying is that you shouldn't profess to be the slayer unless you are about to be lynched, right? Just making sure I understand basic strategy, i.e. I should not say I'm the slayer if I am about to be lynched, although lynching me would be cruel and unusual.

Gandalf, all slayers are female, right (where is Buffy when you need her?), so cut it out with the "he" talk!

And the :slug: is making me :tfh:

[Avi]

People can say whetever they like. Meaning the true slayer can announce themselves as such (or not).

And someone who isn't is free to claim that they're the slayer or EC, if they want.
OK, then I'd just like to say that I may or may not be the slayer. :judge: Or EC. :danim: Or a student. :D Or a slug. :slug:I don't know about the rest, but you are most deifinitely :slug:

[4sigma]

Tentative student strategy: does this make sense?
Premises:
1. We never want to take out the slayer, since we lose a shot at the EC if we do.
2. We do not want the slayer known, since then the EC will take him out and we lose a shot.

Therefore:
1. No one should claim to be the slayer unless in imminent danger of execution.
2. Before casting a decisive vote for execution, we should give that person time to declare if he is the slayer, and if he claims to be, spare him. A non-slayer should accept his doom rather than claim to be slayer (since step 3 will nail him anyway.)
3. If someone who is not the slayer claims to be slayer, the real slayer should slay him.

Advantages (based on n players including 2 EC when the student committee chooses a lynching):
Student committee has a 2/N-1 chance of success (N-1 since they never lynch the slayer).
Slayer always survives, thus he gets a 2/N-2 chance of success.

But Slayer is sure to be executed by the EC next round, so we lose the 2/N-4 chance the new slayer would have then (loss is marginally slighter than this, since if committee had lynched the original slayer, the EC might happen to kill the new slayer).

This seems better than risking having the students lynch the slayer.Gandalf, I agree with your premises. Not sure if I agree with sparing someone who claims to be the slayer. If we adopt these guidelines, any EC member will surely claim to be the slayer if he is about to be lynched. So anyone claiming to be the slayer, the odds are 2-1 that they are actually an EC member.

Of course, they'll get slayed next round. But meanwhile, instead of lynching an EC member, the students change direction and go lynch an innocent student instead of the EC member.


In other words, if we carry out the lynching regardless of claims to be the slayer, we lose a slayer for a round, 1 time in 3.

If we refuse to lynch purported slayers, we lynch an innocent student, 2 times in 3.

I think we prefer the former but haven't finished thinking through all the ramifications. Comments, anyone?

[Jables]

What if the victim refuses to die???

Each round goes as follows:

1. EC notifies me who they will kill
2. I notify the victim who writes their own death scene.
3. The students discuss various ideas and reach a consensus on who their own victim will be. They have no more than 72 hours to build a consensus or lose their turn.

72 hours from the time the victim is decided? Or from the time the death scene is posted?

The first death will leave 28 players in the game. Do we need 14 votes or 15 to be considered a majority in whom we decide to lynch (if anybody)? Just trying to make sure everybody is on the same page...

[plain M&M]

In other words, if we carry out the lynching regardless of claims to be the slayer, we lose a slayer for a round, 1 time in 3.

If we refuse to lynch purported slayers, we lynch an innocent student, 2 times in 3.

I think we prefer the former but haven't finished thinking through all the ramifications. Comments, anyone?

I see your point when there are 2 EC left. When there is only 1 EC left, if we lynch the true slayer, we lose the slayer for good, not just for one round. So in the case of only 1 EC, we are better off letting any proclaimed slayer live.

[4sigma]

We are going to lose the slayer for good anyway, because EC will take him out next to remove any future possibility of being slain. I agree, however, that it's less clear with only one EC left, because you lose the 2-1 odds.

[urysohn]

If you'd like an outsider's opinion, I think you should lynch Avi at the first possible moment. Just look at those beedy littly EC eyes. :evil:

[Avi]

If you'd like an outsider's opinion, I think you should lynch Avi at the first possible moment. Just look at those beedy littly EC eyes. :evil:The idea, my dear rotund one, is to lynch the people who may remove you from the game, not those that exacerbate your sense of inferiority on this board ;)

[Gandalf]

Gandalf, I agree with your premises. Not sure if I agree with sparing someone who claims to be the slayer. If we adopt these guidelines, any EC member will surely claim to be the slayer if he is about to be lynched. So anyone claiming to be the slayer, the odds are 2-1 that they are actually an EC member.

Of course, they'll get slayed next round. But meanwhile, instead of lynching an EC member, the students change direction and go lynch an innocent student instead of the EC member.


In other words, if we carry out the lynching regardless of claims to be the slayer, we lose a slayer for a round, 1 time in 3.

If we refuse to lynch purported slayers, we lynch an innocent student, 2 times in 3.

I think we prefer the former but haven't finished thinking through all the ramifications. Comments, anyone?
Assuming non-slayer students accept their fate rather than claiming to be slayers, I think our odds are greatly in favor of sparing.
Consider 20 players left, potential victim X claims to be the slayer. We spare X instead lynching Y who does not claim to be the slayer. 1/3 of the time X was the real slayer, and we have 2/19 chance of lynching Y as EC, and if not we have 2/18 that X will slay an EC. [But with X exposed as slayer, we won't have a slayer next round, since EC will take him out. Costs us 2/16 for no slayer then.] 2/3 of the time X was EC, we lynch Y, and the real slayer slays X. Overall chance of killing an EC = (1/3)*(2/19 + 2/18-2/16) + 2/3.

If instead we just slay X, our chance of killing an EC is only 2/3, clearly smaller.

It is true that letting X live risks having 2 students die by us and slayer this round while killing X gives us a maximum loss of 1 student by us and slayer this round. I doubt that makes up for the lower chance of killing an EC, but it might.

[42]

OH MY GOD! Mr. Penguin, you didn't tell me there was this much thinking involved!! My brain hurts!

http://www.stopstart.fsnet.co.uk/smilie/explode.gif


Crap! I can't even understand why having a slayer helps the students. Since the slayer has a greater chance of selecting an innocent student than an EC member, it seems like the slayer just helps to get rid of the innocent students even faster. But then what do I know? :duh:

[Rocky]

Gandalf, I agree with your premises. Not sure if I agree with sparing someone who claims to be the slayer. If we adopt these guidelines, any EC member will surely claim to be the slayer if he is about to be lynched. So anyone claiming to be the slayer, the odds are 2-1 that they are actually an EC member.

Of course, they'll get slayed next round. But meanwhile, instead of lynching an EC member, the students change direction and go lynch an innocent student instead of the EC member.


In other words, if we carry out the lynching regardless of claims to be the slayer, we lose a slayer for a round, 1 time in 3.

If we refuse to lynch purported slayers, we lynch an innocent student, 2 times in 3.

I think we prefer the former but haven't finished thinking through all the ramifications. Comments, anyone?
Assuming non-slayer students accept their fate rather than claiming to be slayers, I think our odds are greatly in favor of sparing.
Consider 20 players left, potential victim X claims to be the slayer. We spare X instead lynching Y who does not claim to be the slayer. 1/3 of the time X was the real slayer, and we have 2/19 chance of lynching Y as EC, and if not we have 2/18 that X will slay an EC. [But with X exposed as slayer, we won't have a slayer next round, since EC will take him out. Costs us 2/16 for no slayer then.] 2/3 of the time X was EC, we lynch Y, and the real slayer slays X. Overall chance of killing an EC = (1/3)*(2/19 + 2/18-2/16) + 2/3.

If instead we just slay X, our chance of killing an EC is only 2/3, clearly smaller.

It is true that letting X live risks having 2 students die by us and slayer this round while killing X gives us a maximum loss of 1 student by us and slayer this round. I doubt that makes up for the lower chance of killing an EC, but it might.

:shake:

How's that obituary coming Magic Man?

[Gandalf]

Crap! I can't even understand why having a slayer helps the students. Since the slayer has a greater chance of selecting an innocent student than an EC member, it seems like the slayer just helps to get rid of the innocent students even faster. But then what do I know? :duh:
For simplicity, assume that a new slayer is always appointed immediately.
In that case, with slayer, 2/3 of the deaths have the possibility of killing an EC; 1/3 have no chance of killing an EC (because they are made by the EC).

With no slayer, 1/2 of the deaths have the possibility of killing an EC; 1/2 have no chance.

Slayer gives the students far more shots at the EC.

[Mr. Penguin]

A short but sweet scene:

Hagbard Celine has been attending his grandfather's funeral. Afterwards, he is at his family's house with family and friends, telling tales of his grandfather's life, some sad, but many happy. The room is filled with the love that Grandpa Celine gave to one and all. A terribly sad day, but there is still an all present joy that comes simply from having known such a wonderful man for so many years. The food comes out: some salad, some baked ziti and cold cuts. Hagbard though, goes right to his favorite, his Aunt Sophia's delicious pound cake. He takes a slice and goes and sits in his granps' big old easy chair. As soon as he takes his first bite, he starts gasping for air. Slumping forward and falling to the ground, his family around him, he only has the energy for one last word:

"EC!"


Note: Hagbard's grandfather really did pass a few days ago. I think I speak for all of us when I extend our deepest symapthies to him and his entire family.

[J.T.]

Hagbard, I'm sorry for your loss. :cry:

Let's see, the EC claims their first victim. Besides being truely evil (kick a man while he's down why don't ya), what else can we discern?

[Mr. Penguin]

72 hours from the time the victim is decided? Or from the time the death scene is posted?

The first death will leave 28 players in the game. Do we need 14 votes or 15 to be considered a majority in whom we decide to lynch (if anybody)? Just trying to make sure everybody is on the same page...

The 72 hours will count from the time the scene is posted. With weekends though it gets a bit more complicated since I don't check in very often and I doubt others do either. I mean seriously, get a life! So weekend's only count for half the time. In that case, the students need to reach a decision by 9:30 am Tuesday morning. Of course, they may do so beforehand.

As far as what is a majority, I've been thinking about that. Since some students might not check in very often, I don't want to make this an unfair advantage for the EC. Therefore, a majority is defined as follows:

A quorum must be reached by having 2/3 of remaining students cast a vote. Remember, until a decision is reached, votes can be changed (edited). Once the quorum is reached, then a simple majority, 50%+1 is required for lynching. With 28 players remaining, once 19 have weighed in with a vote, then 10 votes are needed for lynching.

[Jables]

Sorry to hear about your loss, 'Bardo... :( Your absence from the game is completely understandable now.
The EC is far more evil than I expected... death to the EC!

Penguin, to reiterate my question from before, do we have 72 hours from now to make our vote, or from the time the victim was chosen? I'm just wondering because there are twice as many people playing as last time and it might be harder to reach a consensus.

Edit: Ahh, you just beat me. Thanks for clarifying! :D

[Mr. Penguin]

Rules clarification, please.

If the slayer is lynched, will it be made known that they were the slayer? Same question if EC kills them.

I know there will be a strong inference available if the slayer doesn't slay anyone, but it is just possible that we might have a derelict slayer.

The scenario where this arises is if the students move to lynch an EC member, and the EC member pleads that he is the slayer and to spare him. So the students instead lynch someone else, and let's say by chance they lynch the actual slayer. Would it then be be made public that they had lynched the actual slayer?

Yes, it will be publicly confirmed that the victim is the slayer. I thought that I had stated this but perhaps I'm wrong. But when student, EC or Slayer is killed, it will be confirmed.

[Voter]

Did Hagbard have any known enemies, particularly enemies that are in the game? I don't follow politics or the reef, any flames going on there between Hagbard and another player? :-?

If not, IMO the obvious choice is Gandalf. He knows too much! :o

[plain M&M]

First and foremost, I extend my sympathy to Hagbard. I am truly sorry to hear about your loss. :(

Now, about who might be EC - :-?

I wonder why Voter is jumping on Gandalf's bandwagon. Is it because Gandalf knows too much, or is it because Voter is EC and wants to eliminate a vocal student?

What's everyone's thought?

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Sorry Hagbard.

It is nice for the EC members to stick up for each other, plain M&M.

[Voter]

Is it because Gandalf knows too much, or is it because Voter is EC and wants to eliminate a vocal student?
If I were EC and wanted to eliminate Gandalf - I would have eliminated Gandalf! Since Hagbard was eliminated, even though I'm suspicious of Gandalf, I'm obviously not EC.

You are right, though - the EC would want to eliminate the student who's shown the most strategic thought. Since that 'student' wasn't eliminated.........

[ahow]

First and foremost, I extend my sympathy to Hagbard. I am truly sorry to hear about your loss. :(

Now, about who might be EC - :-?

I wonder why Voter is jumping on Gandalf's bandwagon. Is it because Gandalf knows too much, or is it because Voter is EC and wants to eliminate a vocal student?

What's everyone's thought?I said it before...

Voter:

Perhaps. I was EC in game 1. I think it's going to be next to impossible to conclude who is EC from their actions, so we might as well adopt strategies that give us the best chance to get lucky.

If you want to lynch me first, go ahead. I'm not EC this game, but then everyone will claim that, so I'm as likely as anyone.

Or maybe not as likely as anyone. Shouldn't we be more suspicious of someone who seems to be proposing lynching someone who apparently is suggesting a good student strategy...?Ok, let's lynch Voter...I have absolutely no reasoning for this. Sorry.

I have hung out with hagbardo!!! (RIP) in the chatroom on a fairly regular basis but I can think of no quarrels or arguments that have ever taken place there...

[Voter]

It is nice for the EC members to stick up for each other, plain M&M.Excellent point, we should be able to wrap this up rather quickly. :)

[plain M&M]

Sorry Hagbard.

It is nice for the EC members to stick up for each other, plain M&M.

So, you and Voter are the EC?

Seriously, I think Gandalf has done nothing but try to help the student committee so far. I suspect that he's not EC. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[Gandalf]

A quorum must be reached by having 2/3 of remaining students cast a vote. Remember, until a decision is reached, votes can be changed (edited). Once the quorum is reached, then a simple majority, 50%+1 is required for lynching. With 28 players remaining, once 19 have weighed in with a vote, then 10 votes are needed for lynching.
I think this is not a good change. At a minimum, it needs adjustment if we reach 5 players left including 2 EC. Suppose all three students could agree, but the EC is more alert:

If 3 is a quorum (rule isn't clear whether it would be 3 or 4), as soon as the first real student votes, both EC vote for a real student (both for the same one). That's a quorum, and the EC votes are a majority. Bye-bye student.

If 4 is a quorum, the EC's won't vote, and no one gets executed.

[cubedbee]

Sorry to hear about your loss Hagberd.

As far as the quorum thing, it could be modified so that there is a minimum amount of time that elapses before votes are counted. That way, the vote wouldn't end immediately upon quorum, and Gandalf's scenario wouldn't happen.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
That seems like a true statement, thus you must be right. However, I am not an EC member, so I doubt Voter is as well... I meant is not.

[Voter]

New thought: early on, with the odds of EC being randomly selected so low, the EC is probably just gonna lay low, and save misdirection strategies for later. So, everyone who's posted an opinion so far is in the clear. Either that, or it's Gandalf. Whatcha think?

[Polly Nomial]

...I wonder why Voter is jumping on Gandalf's bandwagon. Is it because Gandalf knows too much, or is it because Voter is EC and wants to eliminate a vocal student?

What's everyone's thought?

Gandalf always sounds like he knows too much! Were he EC, he would not need to worry so much about strategy.

(gotta stick up for my MS)

[Polly Nomial]

New thought: early on, with the odds of EC being randomly selected so low, the EC is probably just gonna lay low, and save misdirection strategies for later. So, everyone who's posted an opinion so far is in the clear. Either that, or it's Gandalf. Whatcha think?

That sounds very good!
.
.
.
.
.
unless, of course, Voter is EC! :evil:

[Gandalf]

Is it because Gandalf knows too much, or is it because Voter is EC and wants to eliminate a vocal student?
If I were EC and wanted to eliminate Gandalf - I would have eliminated Gandalf! Since Hagbard was eliminated, even though I'm suspicious of Gandalf, I'm obviously not EC.

You are right, though - the EC would want to eliminate the student who's shown the most strategic thought. Since that 'student' wasn't eliminated.........Good reasoning. Except it depends on how clever the EC is. Superficially, they would behave that way.

OTOH, suppose they reason "Gandalf is the obvious target. What will the students do if we don't hit Gandalf? They'll conclude he's EC, and hit him. Thus, if we hit Gandalf, they'll hit someone else, maybe one of us. If we spare Gandalf, they'll hit him for us, and we are at no risk in this student vote."

[Voter]

Good reasoning. Except it depends on how clever the EC is. Superficially, they would behave that way.

OTOH, suppose they reason "Gandalf is the obvious target. What will the students do if we don't hit Gandalf? They'll conclude he's EC, and hit him. Thus, if we hit Gandalf, they'll hit someone else, maybe one of us. If we spare Gandalf, they'll hit him for us, and we are at no risk in this student vote."
Yes, I've considered that and think it's a good point. Again, I'm switching to the 'EC would lay low at this point' theory. Therefore the only people who definitely aren't EC are:

Gandalf
Voter
Polly
Ebenezer
plain m&m
ahow
JT

A few others made posts that were mostly rules-related. I don't think we can conclude much from those.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Good reasoning. Except it depends on how clever the EC is. Superficially, they would behave that way.
I don't think Voter is that clever and I can't see another EC member telling him what to do. Voter convinced me that he isn't EC. Gandalf is still a possibility.

[Maine-iac]

Plain M&M's easy-going manner seems a little too pat. "If I'm wrong, I'm wrong". If you're WRONG, then a stinkin' EC member lives to slay another day. Sticking up for your EC buddy, perhaps?

[Traina]

Yes, I've considered that and think it's a good point. Again, I'm switching to the 'EC would lay low at this point' theory. Therefore the only people who definitely aren't EC are:

Gandalf
Voter
Polly
Ebenezer
plain m&m
ahow
JT

A few others made posts that were mostly rules-related. I don't think we can conclude much from those.

Concrete decisions can't be made just based on posts. The voting patterns of the players need to be analyzed as well. Therefore it's way too early to say who is definitely not EC.

BTW, are we ever going to avenge Hagbard's demise, or is it just going to be talk, talk, talk :shake:

[Cho Da]

In both previous games, one of the EC members was vocal and the other played quietly until the end. I suggest looking through the list of silent players for a good candidate to lynch.

Unvote: 42

Vote: Macroman

[Voter]

Good reasoning. Except it depends on how clever the EC is. Superficially, they would behave that way.
I don't think Voter is that clever and I can't see another EC member telling him what to do. Voter convinced me that he isn't EC. Gandalf is still a possibility.
You got that right. Look at my rock-paper-scissors results:
SlimShady defeats Voter in Game 2, SlimShady wins (3-0)

[Gandalf]

Vote: Macroman

Purely a guess. At least for now, I think Voter is not EC. Everyone else is a possibility.

[plain M&M]

Plain M&M's easy-going manner seems a little too pat. "If I'm wrong, I'm wrong". If you're WRONG, then a stinkin' EC member lives to slay another day. Sticking up for your EC buddy, perhaps?

OK, let me start over. I am not sticking up for any EC buddy, because I am not EC. I just expressed an opinion that I did not think Gandalf was EC. Call it a hunch, if you will.

Voter, I don't suspect that you are EC, either. I think the EC strategy right now may be to lay low, but could change at any time.

[Mr. Penguin]

A quorum must be reached by having 2/3 of remaining students cast a vote. Remember, until a decision is reached, votes can be changed (edited). Once the quorum is reached, then a simple majority, 50%+1 is required for lynching. With 28 players remaining, once 19 have weighed in with a vote, then 10 votes are needed for lynching.
I think this is not a good change. At a minimum, it needs adjustment if we reach 5 players left including 2 EC. Suppose all three students could agree, but the EC is more alert:

If 3 is a quorum (rule isn't clear whether it would be 3 or 4), as soon as the first real student votes, both EC vote for a real student (both for the same one). That's a quorum, and the EC votes are a majority. Bye-bye student.

If 4 is a quorum, the EC's won't vote, and no one gets executed.

A good point. For now, my quorum rule stands until there are 10 students left with one addendum: From the time that a quorum is declared, students will have 24 hours (longer on weekends) to cast or change their votes. After that time, votes will be tallied. If a majority is not reached, votes will be monitored until a majority is reached or the 72 hours have passed. I instituted the quorum rule simply as a way of getting around the fact that many signed up for the game, but all might not actually be playing.

[Voter]

OK, let me start over. I am not sticking up for any EC buddy, because I am not EC. That's exactly what an EC would say!

[ahow]

VOTE: MACROMAN

I agree that we need to get on with the vote...

[Traina]

VOTE: MACROMAN

[J.T.]

Is there a reason of picking Macroman now or just because he hasn't said anything yet? Why are we jumping on him?

[Voter]

VOTE: MACROMAN

[cubedbee]

This game seems like it would be more interesting if played in person and visual cues of guilt could be used. It sorta sucks just to pick somebody randomly with nothing to go on.

Vote: Macroman

[Cho Da]

As far as what is a majority, I've been thinking about that. Since some students might not check in very often, I don't want to make this an unfair advantage for the EC. Therefore, a majority is defined as follows:

A quorum must be reached by having 2/3 of remaining students cast a vote. Remember, until a decision is reached, votes can be changed (edited). Once the quorum is reached, then a simple majority, 50%+1 is required for lynching. With 28 players remaining, once 19 have weighed in with a vote, then 10 votes are needed for lynching.

Wow! This is a significant rule change. I think it actually helps the EC more than hurts it. The ability for the EC to get the students to lynch one of themselves with a 1/3 vote?

To risky to be voting until there is more discussion.
Unvote: Macroman
Though, I'll revote that way unless discussion changes my mind.

[Voter]

Is there a reason of picking Macroman now or just because he hasn't said anything yet? Personally I'm just mindlessly jumping on the bandwagon. :duh:

[Mr. Penguin]

OK, sorry to make this up as we go along. Revision/clarification on the quorum/voting rule:

A quorum must be reached by having 2/3 of remaining students cast a vote. Remember, until a decision is reached, votes can be changed.

From the time that a quorum is declared, students will have 24 hours (longer on weekends) to cast or change their votes. After that time, votes will be tallied. If a majority is not reached, votes will be monitored until a majority is reached or the 72 hours have passed. If at any time before the 24 hours has passed, a simple majority of all students, is reached, then the player receivind said majority is lynched.

[Rocky]

I'm keeping Gandalf on the radar screen for trying so hard to sell his theories (I don't read many of his posts, so maybe it's just his style)...

Macroman to me would be a shot in the dark. Not that there's a lot of light shed on this game yet, but I think that there are a couple shadows moving that would be better targets.

VOTE: VOTER

This character's been waffling more than a PTA Sunday breakfast fund-raiser...

[Gandalf]

I just jumped on the bandwagon. The main advantage of a bandwagon approach is that if we are fortunate enough to have lucked into hitting an EC, it is unlikely the EC can derail us. (Which has the corresponding disadvantage that if the EC realizes it's hopeless, they'll accept the fate without giving us a clue to the other EC.)

I think the rules give us the chance to change votes after a "decision" is reached. If that's right, the Macroman if he is really the slayer should say so after he is doomed, and we should change to save him.

If rules don't work that way, we need to be careful that the person whose vote would doom Macroman announces his intention first, so that Macroman has time to declare his slayer status if appropriate.

[RedSoxFan]

Is there a reason of picking Macroman now or just because he hasn't said anything yet? Personally I'm just mindlessly jumping on the bandwagon. :duh:

Guys, first of all, its obvious there is at least one chess-player on the EC. Hagbard Celine is so innocent, never makes anyone upset, is the first victim? The EC must have a chess player on it that is trying to get even for Hagbard Celine beating them.

Here are the chess players among us:
Ebenezer Kohlx
RedSoxFan
Hagbard Celine - Slain - Student
Voter
All Clear
Zakarin
Anonymouse
Macroman
werewolf

With that being said, we can actually eliminate Macroman and myself, since neither of us have even played HC. I don't have the time to go through the records right now to see which of the others have lost to HC. I wouldn't be surprised if it was EK, Voter, and/or Anonymouse, since they do the most chess-related posting and trash talking.

[Polly Nomial]

I can live with lynching Macroman so that we can get on with the game, but somehow I don't think he is EC.

Vote: Macroman

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Vote: Macroman

[Traina]

Well Voter claims to be clueless and EK seems to show some support for Voter. Is this some sort of alliance? Or is RedSoxFan purposely suggesting innocent students :-?

[Rocky]

Question: Does every other ID in this game (besides mine) belong to the same person? That would explain the Macroman witch-hunt...

Get up and defend yourself Macroman...

unless your EC, in which case let me know what size noose you need

[Rocky]

Well Voter claims to be clueless and EK seems to show some support for Voter. Is this some sort of alliance? Or is RedSoxFan purposely suggesting innocent students :-?

Now you're kicking that cranial steam engine into gear...

[Mr. Penguin]

Current votes:

7 for Macroman
1 for Voter

[Cho Da]

It makes no sense to lynch people just to get on with it, especially you don't think he is on the EC. It is always preferable to forgo lynching someone than guessing wrong (of course the students don't know until the death scene).

Since I started the Macroman bandwagon, I should say it was by looking at the list of silent people and choosing one who did me wrong in Diplomacy, not chess.

I still strongly think that the quorum rule give much too much power to the EC. Lynchings should require an absolute majority of the surviving players (>50% affirmative vote). I suggest everyone unvote so that we do not trigger the quorum.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

It is interesting that there is a group of chess players who could vote in a block. The EC eliminates one and we are lynching anther.

[ahow]

Well Voter claims to be clueless and EK seems to show some support for Voter. Is this some sort of alliance? Or is RedSoxFan purposely suggesting innocent students :-?

Now you're kicking that cranial steam engine into gear...Alright, so if EK and Voter have been beaten by hagbardo!!! in chess, then we have established motive. Especially since hagbardo!!! doesn't seem to have enemies anywhere else. Now we only need to question the credibility of RedSoxFan...

[J.T.]

Since I started the Macroman bandwagon, I should say it was by looking at the list of silent people and choosing one who did me wrong in Diplomacy, not chess.

Hmmm...Cho Da are you EC starting us on the bandwagon, but yet taking away your vote to decrease attention?

[RedSoxFan]

Everyone, it isn't Macroman! I'm sure of it. He's too quiet around here to agree to get rid of another quiet chess player. It has to be one of the loud chess players. I was going to go with Voter, but this post from EK:

Vote: Macroman

Makes me think its him. He just voted for Macroman to blend in with everyone else! He didn't even present a reason!

We must bound together to save our fellow students! DON'T GET RID OF YOUR FELLOW STUDENT MACROMAN!

YOU MUST CHANGE YOUR VOTE TO EBENEZER KOHLX! HE IS ON THE COMMITTEE!!!

Vote: Ebenezer Kohlx

[Gandalf]

It makes no sense to lynch people just to get on with it, especially you don't think he is on the EC. It is always preferable to forgo lynching someone than guessing wrong (of course the students don't know until the death scene).
But if you don't risk guessing wrong, you lose the chance to guess right.

In your original version of the game, it could be best to forego one lynching, depending on the initial number of players. In this version, since we don't know the exact progression (it depends on whether the slayer gets killed), I don't see any merit to passing.

I still strongly think that the quorum rule give much too much power to the EC. Lynchings should require an absolute majority of the surviving players (>50% affirmative vote). I suggest everyone unvote so that we do not trigger the quorum.
I too would prefer a >50% affirmative vote, but don't think it is a huge factor either way. It could even work to our advantage, making EC more likely to intervene and give us clues to their identity.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

That motive is silly. I can come up with much better motives of why I would eliminate Hagbard. The primary one is a lack of enemies. The first victim would take it better if it were not vindictive. Thanks for pointing that out, ahow.

[RedSoxFan]

It is interesting that there is a group of chess players who could vote in a block. The EC eliminates one and we are lynching anther.

This post is a mark of fear. It proves it is him!

[Mr. Penguin]

I still strongly think that the quorum rule give much too much power to the EC. Lynchings should require an absolute majority of the surviving players (>50% affirmative vote). I suggest everyone unvote so that we do not trigger the quorum.

The quorum rule as revised mostly just gets the clock ticking.

[Voter]

Is there a reason of picking Macroman now or just because he hasn't said anything yet? Personally I'm just mindlessly jumping on the bandwagon. :duh:

Guys, first of all, its obvious there is at least one chess-player on the EC. Hagbard Celine is so innocent, never makes anyone upset, is the first victim? The EC must have a chess player on it that is trying to get even for Hagbard Celine beating them.

Here are the chess players among us:
Ebenezer Kohlx
RedSoxFan
Hagbard Celine - Slain - Student
Voter
All Clear
Zakarin
Anonymouse
Macroman
werewolf

With that being said, we can actually eliminate Macroman and myself, since neither of us have even played HC. I don't have the time to go through the records right now to see which of the others have lost to HC. I wouldn't be surprised if it was EK, Voter, and/or Anonymouse, since they do the most chess-related posting and trash talking.
I won my only game against Hagbard:
Hagbard Celine Black white has resigned 2004-03-16 16:22:13 2004-03-17 16:05:49

[ahow]

I won my only game against Hagbard:
Hagbard Celine Black white has resigned 2004-03-16 16:22:13 2004-03-17 16:05:49
Perhaps you were scared he would have it out for you? That was a very recent loss...

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I won my only game against Hagbard:
Hagbard Celine Black white has resigned 2004-03-16 16:22:13 2004-03-17 16:05:49
Perhaps you were scared he would have it out for you? That was a very recent loss...
Doesn't fit with Voter's mentality. Consider this post.
Ebenezer ruined me. :shake:
That was the last game I played against my good friend, Hagbard. :cry:

[Klaymen]

I vote for RedSoxFan.

[Voter]

I won my only game against Hagbard:
Hagbard Celine Black white has resigned 2004-03-16 16:22:13 2004-03-17 16:05:49
Perhaps you were scared he would have it out for you? That was a very recent loss...So anyone who lost to him is suspicious...and anyone who beat him is suspicious???

Hate to say it, but redsox has a good theory.

UNVOTE: MACROMAN

VOTE: EBENEZER

[Rocky]

I vote for RedSoxFan.

Are you bolding that pick or just suggesting?

[cubedbee]

I vote for RedSoxFan.

Voting is a follows: use BOLD to highlight votes and vote changes. Don't use bold for anything else. This is so I can try to follow the vote counts.

Do non-bold votes count? Also, shouldn't Gandalf be disqualified?

In your original version of the game, it could be best to forego one lynching, depending on the initial number of players.

[Voter]

I vote for RedSoxFan.Why? Are we getting too close to the truth, Mr. EC chess player??? :evil:

[ahow]

I won my only game against Hagbard:
Hagbard Celine Black white has resigned 2004-03-16 16:22:13 2004-03-17 16:05:49
Perhaps you were scared he would have it out for you? That was a very recent loss...So anyone who lost to him is suspicious...and anyone who beat him is suspicious???

Hate to say it, but redsox has a good theory.

UNVOTE: MACROMAN

VOTE: EBENEZERI was joking around about this. I don't think hagbardo!!! is the retalitory type, which just makes this more difficult. In the meantime, since we have not heard from Macroman:
UNVOTE: MACROMAN
I am going to wait on voting for a while longer...

[Gandalf]

Do non-bold votes count? Also, shouldn't Gandalf be disqualified?

In your original version of the game, it could be best to forego one lynching, depending on the initial number of players.
:oops:

[Rocky]

Hate to say it, but redsox has a good theory.

Looks a little good cop/bad cop to me..."Let me tell you something.........YOU'RE suspect"...

[Voter]

Ebenezer's the loud one. Anonymouse, the quiet one, tried to lay low, until his EC buddy came under suspicion. So, he tries to shift the focus with a simple, one-line post.

EC: Ebenezer and Anonymouse

[Klaymen]

I vote for RedSoxFan.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Hagbard cheers for the Red Sox. RedSoxFan knows that.

[RedSoxFan]

Ebenezer's the loud one. Anonymouse, the quiet one, tried to lay low, until his EC buddy came under suspicion. So, he tries to shift the focus with a simple, one-line post.

EC: Ebenezer and Anonymouse

Voter has figured it out! Well done. Can't we just vote for both of these guys at the same time and get the whole game over with?

[Klaymen]

You guys are funny. More campaigning than a presidential election.

[RedSoxFan]

Hagbard cheers for the Red Sox. RedSoxFan knows that.

So why on earth would i support having Hagbard eliminated? Ebenezer is throwing stuff out to try to mislead us in a desperate attempt to avoid attention.

[Voter]

You guys are funny. You campaign so much you should be running for president.
Ooh, looks like we hit a nerve!

[Ebenezer Kohl]

So why on earth would i support having Hagbard eliminated?
You wouldn't.

[ahow]

VOTE: EBENEZER KOHLX

[Jables]

I vote for RedSoxFan.

Vote: Anonymouse

Sox fans gotta stick together. This vote will probably change however if a new bandwagon arises. :D

[cubedbee]

So why on earth would i support having Hagbard eliminated?
You wouldn't.

:lol: People are getting a little paranoid. It was pretty clear that EK was defending you, RSF.

[All Clear]

Voter and Gandalf seem to know lots about whats going on, especilly early on in the voting. I'll have to read all the posts again later on to try to see if I can figure out anything, but for now, with Gandalf having been EC last time (figure lightning won't strike twice), and wanting to get enough students for a quorum, I'll go with VOTER. I will switch to Gandalf or whoever my peers go with to get the necessary votes, though.

[Cho Da]

All of the analysis about whether it is better to pass or not assumes that the students are picking rationally. The key is to make rational decisions and see who the EC snuffs, as a rational EC will snuff those getting to close to the truth. Also note that silent students do no favors for the rest of us, but the EC is motivated to be quiet. they can't reveal themselves if they say nothing.

If we are to lynch someone, we should certainly lynch one of the silent types.

If Malfoy^H^H^H^H^H^HKohlx is EC, he certainly will reveal himself in due time. He can't keep his trap shut to save himself.

Also note that speeding the process along only helps the EC hide themselves. The EC will reveal themselves if given enough time to talk. and defend themselves and their actions.

Unvote today. Save your vote until the deadline looms.

[Mr. Penguin]

Current Tally:

Macroman: 5
Ebenezer Kohlx: 3
Voter: 2
RedSoxFan: 1
Anonymouse: 1

[Ebenezer Kohl]

All chess players, including Hagbard.

[RedSoxFan]

So why on earth would i support having Hagbard eliminated?
You wouldn't.

:lol: People are getting a little paranoid. It was pretty clear that EK was defending you, RSF.

I'm confused why EK would defend me when I voted for him and am encouraging others to do so as well.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I'm confused why EK would defend me when I voted for him and am encouraging others to do so as well.
Because I get more satisfaction in attempting to identify the EC members. I'm going to squash you in chess when next we play anyway. I'll get my personal satisfaction over you at that time.

[Gandalf]

All of the analysis about whether it is better to pass or not assumes that the students are picking rationally.
It is better not to pass even if the students are picking randomly. (Tan: With the possibility of EC nudging, it is hard to achieve a result as good as random guessing.)The key is to make rational decisions and see who the EC snuffs, as a rational EC will snuff those getting to close to the truth.Not necessarily, as the rational EC is also motivated to hide itself. As EC in game 1, I think we never executed a person we considered the biggest immediate threat. Also note that silent students do no favors for the rest of us, but the EC is motivated to be quiet. they can't reveal themselves if they say nothing.

If we are to lynch someone, we should certainly lynch one of the silent types. Agreed. Not because they are much more likely to be EC, but because the biggest threat is a silent EC, and we want to rid ourselves of those.

[Jables]

Going along with Cho Da's theory about waiting things out for a bit, I'll unvote Anonymous if he unvotes RedSoxFan :)

[Klaymen]

UNVOTE: Redsoxfan

Besides, I need time to actually read all the jibba-jabba from the last several pages. :argue:

[Jables]

UNVOTE: Anonymouse

[Avi]

Just a thought.

Diplomacy experts will have an advantage in this game due to their experience in misdirection and duplicity. If they are non-EC members, it behooves us to protect them, but if they are EC members, it would even the playing field for us students to have as unsophisticated EC members as possible.

So it may be a tenable theory to just eliminate all experts at this game first to even out the field.

Which would make Gandalf, Cho Da, and 42 people I would consider early on......

Suggestions?

[Rocky]

All of the analysis about whether it is better to pass or not assumes that the students are picking rationally. The key is to make rational decisions and see who the EC snuffs, as a rational EC will snuff those getting to close to the truth. Also note that silent students do no favors for the rest of us, but the EC is motivated to be quiet. they can't reveal themselves if they say nothing.

If we are to lynch someone, we should certainly lynch one of the silent types.

If Malfoy^H^H^H^H^H^HKohlx is EC, he certainly will reveal himself in due time. He can't keep his trap shut to save himself.

Also note that speeding the process along only helps the EC hide themselves. The EC will reveal themselves if given enough time to talk. and defend themselves and their actions.

Unvote today. Save your vote until the deadline looms.

There are contrarians out there too...some EC members could think "well, they'll never suspect a vocal EC member"...I don't think that a formula will work this early in the game.

Reading between the lines on posts does give a few clues to potential EC members (I've got 3 in mind from posts since HC's death scene)...

[Rocky]

Just a thought.

Diplomacy experts will have an advantage in this game due to their experience in misdirection and duplicity. If they are non-EC members, it behooves us to protect them, but if they are EC members, it would even the playing field for us students to have as unsophisticated EC members as possible.

So it may be a tenable theory to just eliminate all experts at this game first to even out the field.

Which would make Gandalf, Cho Da, and 42 people I would consider early on......

Suggestions?

Not a crazy idea, but I think that it's too early to vote on past experience with similar games on RO.

[plain M&M]

A person leaves for a few hours, and comes back to find many pages of posts. :o

I have my suspicions as well, based on previous posts, but at this point there are too many possibilities.

I'll save my vote for Monday.

[Mr. Penguin]

Something that doesn't really need to be stated right now, but will eventually:

"Ghosts" (those who have been slain) can still weigh in with their post-mortem opinions, though they obviously cannot vote.

[abacustwo]

VOTE: Gandalf

[Gandalf]

Something that doesn't really need to be stated right now, but will eventually:

"Ghosts" (those who have been slain) can still weigh in with their post-mortem opinions, though they obviously cannot vote.
This should be a big advantage to us. We all win if the EC dies, so the ghosts are on our side.

[Macroman]

Obviously I'm not EC, if I were I would have slain someone who beat me at either chess or Diplomacy.

[Jables]

The key is to make rational decisions and see who the EC snuffs, as a rational EC will snuff those getting to close to the truth.

However, knowing that they may haunt the thread and still influence other players...EC may not follow this strategy so strictly.

[Cho Da]

The key is to make rational decisions and see who the EC snuffs, as a rational EC will snuff those getting to close to the truth.

However, knowing that they may haunt the thread and still influence other players...EC may not follow this strategy so strictly.

So in which cup is the iocaine powder?

[42]

You are right, though - the EC would want to eliminate the student who's shown the most strategic thought. Since that 'student' wasn't eliminated.........Good reasoning. Except it depends on how clever the EC is. Superficially, they would behave that way. OTOH, suppose they reason "Gandalf is the obvious target. What will the students do if we don't hit Gandalf? They'll conclude he's EC, and hit him. Thus, if we hit Gandalf, they'll hit someone else, maybe one of us. If we spare Gandalf, they'll hit him for us, and we are at no risk in this student vote."I agree. In the last game, I constantly voiced different strategies. I even regularly posted an update of who voted for whom, who changed their votes, what order people voted in, etc. for each round of voting - all so that it would be easier for the students to analyze the data. I thought the students would see that I was clearly one of them. Instead, all it did was make me a bigger target for the students on each round of voting, and I'm convinced that was why the EC waited until the last round to kill me off: they knew I was drawing fire away from them.


It makes no sense to lynch people just to get on with it, especially you don't think he is on the EC. It is always preferable to forgo lynching someone than guessing wrong (of course the students don't know until the death scene).
But if you don't risk guessing wrong, you lose the chance to guess right.Hmmm ... Why would Cho Da spread false theories that he knew Gandalf had already proven in previous EC games? Could it be that Cho Da is really...


with Gandalf having been EC last time (figure lightning won't strike twice), and wanting to get enough students for a quorum, I'll go with VOTER. I will switch to Gandalf or whoever my peers go with to get the necessary votes, though.All Clear has just outed him/her/itself. Any self-respecting actuarial student would know that the probability of lightning striking twice in the same place is actually independent of past results. Actually, any self-respecting physics student would know that the probability of lightning striking is actually higher for a place that has already been struck, but that's not important now. What is important is that All Clear is too dumb to be an actuarial student, which means he/she/it has just the right level of intelligence to be on the EC!


Unvote today. Save your vote until the deadline looms. Once again, just what the EC would want us to do, especially since they know that we might miss the deadline. Cho Da is looking more and more like EC with each post.


Is there a reason of picking Macroman now or just because he hasn't said anything yet? Why are we jumping on him?I agree - it's not fair to vote for somebody for no reason. I'm voting for him because he cheated at Survivor! VOTE: MACROMAN. (Actually, I'd really like to vote for E.Blackadder, because I still think he's guilty, but since he's not playing this time, I would have to call that a reeeeeeally long shot.)

[urysohn]

(Actually, I'd really like to vote for E.Blackadder, because I still think he's guilty, but since he's not playing this time, I would have to call that a reeeeeeally long shot.)
E.Blackadder and I look forward to picking off each of you miserable cretins one at a time, then laughing hysterically afterward as we explain the double secret rule that EC members were "accidentally" left off the official list of participants. bwa ha ha ha ha ha!

[Jables]

The key is to make rational decisions and see who the EC snuffs, as a rational EC will snuff those getting to close to the truth.

However, knowing that they may haunt the thread and still influence other players...EC may not follow this strategy so strictly.

So in which cup is the iocaine powder?

You sent me Googling on that one :)

[Jables]

Side note: I assume most of us who weren't around for the first game (myself included), have read through the thread for it (to get a better idea of how the game works when it is in full swing and to review some strategies), posted in Penguin's original post here. After a day or two of confusion about why 42 was getting the "salt the slug" treatment when he wasn't even in the first game, I did some searching and found that there was a 2nd game played out here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=3820) (and an attempt at a third one here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=6475)). I haven't read though them yet (the 2nd game is 20-some-odd pages), but it could provide some insight, or at least make some references to previous games a little clearer.

[urysohn]

Side note: I assume most of us who weren't around for the first game (myself included), have read through the thread for it (to get a better idea of how the game works when it is in full swing and to review some strategies), posted in Penguin's original post here. After a day or two of confusion about why 42 was getting the "salt the slug" treatment when he wasn't even in the first game, I did some searching and found that there was a 2nd game played out here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=3820) (and an attempt at a third one here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=6475)). I haven't read though them yet (the 2nd game is 20-some-odd pages), but it could provide some insight, or at least make some references to previous games a little clearer.
Let me summarize those for everyone who doesn't want to read them all:
- A couple of the students have great strategies involving lots of analysis
- One EC member is vocal, the other more silent. This may or may not have been strategy
- Students got smoked without ever getting near the EC
- All the "analysis" pretty much was wasted effort

The EC wins. The EC always wins, and you are all DOOMED!!!

[Jables]

Side note: I assume most of us who weren't around for the first game (myself included), have read through the thread for it (to get a better idea of how the game works when it is in full swing and to review some strategies), posted in Penguin's original post here. After a day or two of confusion about why 42 was getting the "salt the slug" treatment when he wasn't even in the first game, I did some searching and found that there was a 2nd game played out here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=3820) (and an attempt at a third one here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=6475)). I haven't read though them yet (the 2nd game is 20-some-odd pages), but it could provide some insight, or at least make some references to previous games a little clearer.
Let me summarize those for everyone who doesn't want to read them all:
- A couple of the students have great strategies involving lots of analysis
- One EC member is vocal, the other more silent. This may or may not have been strategy
- Students got smoked without ever getting near the EC
- All the "analysis" pretty much was wasted effort

The EC wins. The EC always wins, and you are all DOOMED!!!

Thanks for the summary. I suppose I can trust you since you're not in the game this time :)

[Guest]

Good response so far. I hope to get 15+ and start sometime next week. I hope to live up to the lofty fun of Cho Da's original game. And if 42 came back to play, that would be awesome.
Well, since you asked ... OK.

Dammit - I promised myself I wouldn't do this! :shake:

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

[Gandalf]

Let me summarize those for everyone who doesn't want to read them all:
- A couple of the students have great strategies involving lots of analysis
- One EC member is vocal, the other more silent. This may or may not have been strategy
- Students got smoked without ever getting near the EC
- All the "analysis" pretty much was wasted effort

The EC wins. The EC always wins, and you are all DOOMED!!!
The EC is in big trouble this time. The rules are far better for the students than in the earlier games:
1. More players. That means more shots at the EC.
2. A slayer. So at least until we get one EC, we get two shots to every shot they get.
3. Ghosts. Ghosts were not allowed to participate at all in game 1, and were severely restricted in game 2. Mr. Penguin has said ghost are not restricted in this game as to what they can do or say, including by PM. That is a huge advantage. Huge.

As long as the real students (including ghosts) work for their common good, the EC's chances are terrible.

[4sigma]

Let me summarize those for everyone who doesn't want to read them all:
- A couple of the students have great strategies involving lots of analysis
- One EC member is vocal, the other more silent. This may or may not have been strategy
- Students got smoked without ever getting near the EC
- All the "analysis" pretty much was wasted effort

The EC wins. The EC always wins, and you are all DOOMED!!!

Urysohn, thanks for the summary. I think it's correct for the students to lynch someone. The argument for not lynching is that the info we will gain by seeing who EC kills is more valuable than the chance to lynch an EC.

Cho Da, you mention that we should lynch rationally and that we should be able to identify EC because they will execute those who get close to the truth. I agree with this. But "get close to the truth" involves attempting to lynch them, doesn't it? So we have to seriously try to lynch some people. Otherwise EC will never feel threatened and they can just execute people at random until all the students are dead.

RedSoxFan, your theory about a chess player wanting to take out H.C. early is as good as any. I'm inclined to vote to lynch a chess player this round. I don't know that it would necessarily be someone with a recent grudge against H.C., however. That might be too obvious.

[Cho Da]

I guess I don't see the advantage to Ghosts, but I agree that the slayer and the numbers swing the advantage to us.

Any proof of probablilites assumes that the choices are made randomly. If there is a lot of chatter (and this requires that we don't lynch hastily), we will gain an even bigger advantage since we can ttempt to divine the EC from what they say.

Silent students are no better than the EC. If we have to guess, we should get the silent ones first.

Enjoy the weekend!

[Mr. Penguin]

The current tally is:

Macroman 6
Ebenezer Kohlx 3
Voter 2
Gandalf 1.

Number of votes needed for quorum is 19. Deadline for quorum rule to come into effect is Monday, 9:30 am. Number of votes needed for lynching without the quorum rule is 15, deadline is Tuesday, 9:30 am.

Have a lyncherific weekend.

[42]

- A couple of the students have great strategies involving lots of analysis
- All the "analysis" pretty much was wasted effort
The EC wins. The EC always wins, and you are all DOOMED!!!As someone who analyzed everybody's every move last time, I have to say: "Hey! I resemble that remark!" And, unfortunately, I have to agree. By the time it got down to five of us (me, two other students, and the two EC), the other two students thought I was EC so they voted for me before either EC member did! When I got lynched, I thought the other two students were actually the EC! :duh:

[4sigma]

If we are to lynch someone, we should certainly lynch one of the silent types. Agreed. Not because they are much more likely to be EC, but because the biggest threat is a silent EC, and we want to rid ourselves of those.

Silent thus far:

werewolf
fallout
Kenshiro
Zakarin
duodenum
Asynchronous
USCanuck

Fairly silent:

cmu_stu: only post has been to vote: Gandalf. No discussion of strategy or reasons. cmu_stu, care to share your reasons for this?
Macroman: only post has been to claim not to be EC, once an (admittedly random) movement to lynch him was underway. Macro, what strategy do you think would be better than lynching you? :)

[Macroman]

If we are to lynch someone, we should certainly lynch one of the silent types. Agreed. Not because they are much more likely to be EC, but because the biggest threat is a silent EC, and we want to rid ourselves of those.

Silent thus far:

werewolf
fallout
Kenshiro
Zakarin
duodenum
Asynchronous
USCanuck

Fairly silent:

cmu_stu: only post has been to vote: Gandalf. No discussion of strategy or reasons. cmu_stu, care to share your reasons for this?
Macroman: only post has been to claim not to be EC, once an (admittedly random) movement to lynch him was underway. Macro, what strategy do you think would be better than lynching you? :)

I'm still trying to figure the game out. I didn't even realize that HC had been offed until I checked the board at lunch (as a rule I don't read the board during work hours). I'll weigh in again later.

[Traina]

I agree. In the last game, I constantly voiced different strategies. I even regularly posted an update of who voted for whom, who changed their votes, what order people voted in, etc. for each round of voting - all so that it would be easier for the students to analyze the data.

What's that you're saying, 42...you're volunteering to keep track in this game too :D
Just kidding... it's gonna be a lot, lot more work to keep track of all the players votes and unvotes, this time around. Still useful though.

[Asynchronous]

Checking my most recent post dates might give you some rationale for my lack of posting here - not just being silent.

Here's a question - are there any participants that have been posting on the RO this week, but not here? That would be most curious behavior, and befitting of an EC lurker. Hopefully some enterprising young whippersnapper (or 42, bless his prodigal soul - or whatever slugs may have) can do the research to see if anything comes up!

As for me, I am inkling Cho Da - I don't think his strategies add up and he's encouraging us to unvote when we've got 8 pages of conversation to take a literal stab in the dark. Any takers?

[Gandalf]

Cho Da has suggested some very bad strategy, tis true, but I'm inclined to think (at this point he is not EC). Maybe he was throwing it out to see who might support the bad strategy, and people (especially me) foiled him by refuting it too quickly.

I think he's right on with killing the quiet ones, and making the EC talk.

As to the unvote idea? We need a lot of votes to lynch, and I don't want to let a round go by. I don't suspect Macroman in particular, but he might be EC and I don't have anyone who seems more suspicious.

I've got lots of meetings next week, especially Monday. So don't count on me for any last minute votes you need to lynch.

[Zakarin]

If we are to lynch someone, we should certainly lynch one of the silent types. Agreed. Not because they are much more likely to be EC, but because the biggest threat is a silent EC, and we want to rid ourselves of those.

Silent thus far:


Zakarin



I'm still trying to figure the game out. I didn't even realize that HC had been offed until I checked the board at lunch (as a rule I don't read the board during work hours). I'll weigh in again later.

What he said.

I'd like to suggest that the EC membership has been restricted to people whom the Penguin knows and is confident that they would follow the game. Thus anyone who regularly participates in any game or discussion and has done so for sometime is more likely to be on the EC. Unfortunatly a quick look shows this applies to nearly everyone. shoot. (I think I just painted a big target on my chest)

as for the Chess theory.. I was beaten by HC thanks to my own Chess foolishness, but held no ill will..

I'll have to read the other games played previoulsy and see how all this is done.

But just to follow the other Chess Students:

Vote: Ebenezer Kholx

[cubedbee]

(I think I just painted a big target on my chest)


Dude, you have 24 posts. Most of us playing have many days where we have posted more than that. I've never seen your name before this thread. I have no idea who you are. In the grand scheme of the RF you are nothing. I don' t mean to belittle you, its jus I don't think you are a primary target.

[abacustwo]

cmu_stu, care to share your reasons for this?

Gandalf is a wizard (http://chuma.cas.usf.edu/~dking3/real_ultimate_power.htm). He is highly likely to flip out and kill people.

[Jables]

cmu_stu, care to share your reasons for this?

Gandalf is a wizard (http://chuma.cas.usf.edu/~dking3/real_ultimate_power.htm). He is highly likely to flip out and kill people.

VOTE: GANDALF

Again, a temporary thing.
Probably. :)

[urysohn]

cmu_stu: only post has been to vote: Gandalf. No discussion of strategy or reasons. cmu_stu, care to share your reasons for this?
Good early strategy for an EC. Cast a dissenting vote early on (perhaps for a fellow EC member) after the vote is decidedly going toward another student.

[Asynchronous]

Cho Da has suggested some very bad strategy, tis true, but I'm inclined to think (at this point he is not EC). Maybe he was throwing it out to see who might support the bad strategy, and people (especially me) foiled him by refuting it too quickly.

I consider Cho Da one of the smartest posters to frequent these parts and I have nothing but the highest respect for him (unless he really is EC, of course). That being said, for him to offer that strategy was a suspect move. Since we're pretty much throwing darts at this point, I was offering him up for consideration.

[J.T.]

I agree that we should lynch a quiet person, since a person who doesn't talk doesn't give us many clues.

Hopefully the clues left by someone isn't silent will help us.

I would say that by tomorrow night we should have an idea of who we are going to lynch. I would think that it might be difficult if we only have those who post in the evenings look Monday night to see a decision be made without them knowing. If we try to decide by tomorrow (choose a couple of people) then each individual can determine who they are suspicious of and cast their vote accordingly. This way, we hopefully get the most input from all of the students and are able to get a vote that everyone gets to decide, not just those who frequent on the weekends or those who frequent during the day.

That being said, I am not a frequent weekend poster, but I will try to check in once or twice a day to see what the consensus is.

[Macroman]

....

Is there a reason of picking Macroman now or just because he hasn't said anything yet? Why are we jumping on him?I agree - it's not fair to vote for somebody for no reason. I'm voting for him because he cheated at Survivor! VOTE: MACROMAN. (Actually, I'd really like to vote for E.Blackadder, because I still think he's guilty, but since he's not playing this time, I would have to call that a reeeeeeally long shot.)

Oh come on, if you are going to pick on me at least choose a good reason, like my repeated attempts to write you out of The Neverending Story. I was never on Survivour.

I agree that Cho Da is acting a little suspicious, but at the same time I think we want his experience around right now. I'd have to think it's at least 50/50 probability of him on the EC on before I'd reccommend voting for Cho Da.

While I'd expect EC to keep a low profile, I wouldn't expect them to be totally silent either. They know they have a special level of involvement and have known that for a few days. They know when the execution took place and so knew approximately when to expect the death scene.

I definitely think Gandalf is not EC, he's just gone too far to try and help the students. Obviously experienced students become bigger suspects as the game goes along because I'd expect the EC to try and wipe out threats they represent. Still if they're not close to uncovering the truth the EC may hope the slayer or students wastes a turn on them.

I'd say we need to go ahead with a lynching to see how the EC reacts, if it's me then so be it. I'm a team player. While most seem to favor lynching someone who has not posted much, I think there is an upside to lynching an active poster. The reaction of the EC may be more readable if the lynchee has some history. I don't want to post a vote until a reasonable consensus develops.

[Klaymen]

I'm amazed how people have latched on to Redsoxfan's chess theory. Why should the slayer need to have a reason of vendetta to explain the execution of HC? If I were the hit man, I'd shoot at random targets. I would probably take numbers from a random number generator and use the player list.

No actually, I'd probably go after the more popular and obnoxious ones.

[Klaymen]

Interesting. I got a PM from someone asking me if I'm a member of the exam committee. Normally I wouldn't blurt out such things, but for this game I will [Did anyone else get these messages?]

Now seriously folks, what would you do if you were on the EC?
"Why yes yes I'm on the EC, slay ME slay ME!" puhleeeeez

Under the assumption that I am not an EC member, is there any reason why I would claim to be one in a PM. Nope, none comes to mind.

I'm not going to concern myself too much with all the theory and hype, but it is great fun to watch everyone plot and conspire. I imagine I'll be face down in a bowl of oatmeal anyday soon lol :D

[Klaymen]

Pardon the multiple posts, but I have a theory to contribute - popularity theory. Recall that Penguin started this game and chose the participants. I think it would be worth figuring out, who would Penguin want to see act this all out? [Anyone know this Penguin character in real life]

Rapdily approaching 500 posts, I still rank at relative obscurity among post people in this forum. If you were choosing the ECs & Slayer, which of you would bother to choose me? Point made.

I'm going to reinstate my original vote, after watching the chess player theory embraced so.

VOTE: REDSOXFAN

I've drawn enough attention now. Have a great weekend.

[4sigma]

Anonymous,

Yes, I also got a PM asking if I was EC. I expect several people did. Just for fun, several of us should all PM back that we are EC members and see what the sender makes of that :P

Upon reflection, I am inclined to agree that the chess theory isn't all that great. It's really the only theory out there at the moment as to why HC was executed.

After giving this some additional thought, allow me to propose another theory for why HC was executed:

EC members are motivated by 3 things:

1) Execute people who will vote to lynch EC members.
2) Execute the slayer
3) Misdirect the students (who are aware of the above motives) as to who is EC.

Now, when EC went to select their first victim, there's no telling who the slayer is. Also, there's no clue who will be voting to lynch who. I mean, who would have guessed that we'd all start out eager to lynch Macroman? The first lynching, if history is any guide, is certainly no better than random.

So really EC has nothing to go on regarding motives 1 and 2. All that EC has to go on with their first execution is to select someone that potentially will misdirect attention away from EC. It is also possible that the first lynching was completely random. But if not, I would propose that misdirection is the true motive behind why HC was selected as the first victim.


Macroman, your explanation sounds reasonable. Do tell RedSoxFan that he is defending you a bit too vigorously, though. If he's really an innocent student, he can't possibly have any idea whether you're EC or not. And if he's not an innocent student, why is he defending you? EC = RedSoxFan + Macroman? :-?

Asynchron / Gandalf, I think there is validity to ChoDa's strategy to the extent that we should try to avoid triggering the Quorum rule, provide that we will still be able to perform a lynching in time. ChoDa didn't emphasize being sure to perform a lynching in his posts. Intentional omission? YBTJ. I am inclined at the moment to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But as long as we are going to be certain to lynch someone, we ought to take as much time as possible to work out who we think EC members are. The Quorum rule can act to reduce the number of votes needed for a lynching, which works to the advantage of EC.

Good early strategy for an EC. Cast a dissenting vote early on (perhaps for a fellow EC member) after the vote is decidedly going toward another student. It worked for Tom Servo in game 2, didn't it? Jables, thanks for the links to these past games.

Zakarin, I believe Mr. Penguin is skilled in the generation of random numbers. But if this point is in question I am sure Mr. Penguin can enlighten us all as to the selection method. Glad to see you speak up. Let's all keep talking....

Cho Da, I see a slight advantage to ghosts. Part of the burden of the students is that innocent students act without coordination, while EC works to preserve EC. For example, the students as a whole cannot take a random action. I.e., if there are 5 students left, there is no unbiased way to randomly lynch one of them. EC will be injecting their bias to not lynch EC. So there is a bias among the students to lynch Non-EC, ceteris paribus. However, a ghost would be able to truly select someone at random. If the students agreed to lynch whoever a ghost said to lynch, the students would then be able to perform a random lynching, removing the above bias and thus creating an advantage to the students.

[4sigma]

Since the quorum rule (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=26362&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=117) has undergone some revision and tinkering, I would like to confirm that I (and everyone else) understand it correctly, by using the current situation as an example.

Current # of students = 28 Majority = 15.
Quorum = 19.

If at least 19 votes are cast before 9:30 a.m. Monday, the 24-hour clock starts ticking on the quorum rule. This means that 24 hours after the 19th vote is cast (weekend time runs at half speed), a lynching would be performed if anyone has a majority of the votes cast.

For example, if the 19th vote were cast at noon on Sunday, the quorum rule would take effect at 6 p.m. Monday. (6 effective hours Sunday + 18 hours Monday = 24 hours) If at that time there are 23 people who have voted, a majority of 12 would consitute a lynching at that time.

If there is no majority out of the votes cast at the end of the 24 hours, a lynching will subsequently occur as soon as there is a majority for anyone out of the existing votes. In the above example, if there are there are 23 votes as of 6 p.m. Monday and the leader has 11 votes, one more new vote for them would make 12 out of 24, which is not a majority. So no lynching yet. But another vote would make 13 out of 25 and would trigger a lynching.

Prior to 6 p.m. Monday, a lynching would still require 15 votes. Or If 19 votes have not been cast before 9:30 a.m. Monday, the quorum rule does not come into effect and a lynching requires the usual 15 votes. If nobody has received 15 votes by 9:30 a.m. Tuesday, and nobody is lynched under the quorum rule, then no lynching occurs.

Is this everyone else's understanding as well?

Edited to reflect the effect of weekends on the 24-hour rule and to clarify the examples in light of this -- thanks, J.T.!

[Macroman]

....

Macroman, your explanation sounds reasonable. Do tell RedSoxFan that he is defending you a bit too vigorously, though. If he's really an innocent student, he can't possibly have any idea whether you're EC or not. And if he's not an innocent student, why is he defending you? EC = RedSoxFan + Macroman? :-?

....

Indeed such actions can be interpreted (or misinterpreted) as a sign of guilt. Please be a lttle more measured friend, RSF. For now I think we should write it off as wanting to keep a friend in the game as we have something of a bond from chess competition. For the same reason I'm refraining from casting a vote in his direction.

I too got a PM asking if I am EC. I interpreted it as an amatuerish attempt at investigation. It's worth noting that this is a witch hunt, and asking the accused if they are guilty was one of the primary investigational techniques in the Salem witch hunts and the inquistion. Of course then the questions were accompanied by torture.

I think it's suspicious that Werewolf has yet to post here even though he has several recent posts. That is not entirely out of character, however.

VOTE: werewolf- subsequently unvoted

Werewolf, come out and defend yourself.

Edited to unvote werewolf.

[fallout]

I vote for USCanuck Never trust a foreigner. Especially one that stays quiet.

[J.T.]

I don't have the time to go back and check, but how many people have voted so far? (by that, I mean, have a vote currently out there?)

My understanding of the quorum rule is that if the quorum is met and there is a majority, it will not take effect until Monday, so the 13th vote wouldn't have been placed until that time, in order to give any person time to defend themselves. But, if we vote a true majority (51% of the total group), the lynch is then deemed effective immediately (not waiting for Monday).

So, if 13 of us vote for say Macroman (just an example) and there are 24 votes cast, then he is not effectively lynched until Monday at the specified time, so if I was a voter and unvoted Macroman on Sunday, which only left us with 12 votes, he would not be lynched unless another vote came in.

P.S. I was left with the same PM. For the record, I'm not EC.

[Rocky]

I got the PM as well...almost tempted to lynch the sender :swear:

4Sigma's description is the same as my understanding of the quorum rule.

JT - it looks to me like we're at 15 total votes.

[Macroman]

I got the PM as well...almost tempted to lynch the sender :swear:

4Sigma's description is the same as my understanding of the quorum rule.

JT - it looks to me like we're at 15 total votes.

That's my understanding of the quorum too.

I'd like to lynch the PM'er too. We can only lynch one. I repeat, we should lynch someone. If necessary I'll vote for myself (as illogical as that is).

[Traina]

I got the PM as well...almost tempted to lynch the sender :swear:


Yeah, I got the PM, as well. I thought it highly amusing, but at least s/he is trying.

[Traina]

Ok, I had some free time on my hands, so I've prepared a current timeline of the votes so far. I'll probably do another one after the round is finished. Current votes are indicated in red.

Cho Da votes 42 (early)
Cho Da unvotes 42 votes Macroman
Gandalf votes Macroman
Ahow votes Macroman
Traina. votes Macroman
Voter votes Macroman
CubedBee votes Macroman
Cho Da unvotes Macroman
Rocky votes Voter
Polly Nomial votes Macroman
Ebenezer Kohlx votes Macroman
RedSoxFan votes Ebenezer Kohlx
Anonymouse votes RedSoxFan
Voter unvotes Macroman votes Ebenezer Kohlx
Ahow unvotes Macroman votes Ebenezer Kohlx
Jables votes Anonymouse
All Clear votes Voter
Anonymouse unvotes RedSoxFan
Jables unvotes Anonymouse
cmu_stu votes Gandalf
42 votes Macroman
Zakarin votes Ebenezer Kohlx
Jables votes Gandalf
Anonymouse votes RedSoxFan
Macroman votes werewolf
fallout votes USCanuck

4sigma, Asynchronous, Avi, duodenum, J.T., Kenshiro, Maine-iac, plain M&M, USCanuck & werewolf have not voted as yet.

Disclaimer: This summary has not been audited, use at your own risk.

[abacustwo]

Gone.

[abacustwo]

These were the people that responded:

Prof. Jables
RedSoxFan
Macroman
Gandalf
4sigma
CubedBee
fallout
Zakarin

[abacustwo]

I got the PM as well...almost tempted to lynch the sender :swear:


Yeah, I got the PM, as well. I thought it highly amusing, but at least s/he is trying.

Glad I could make you :P.

[fallout]

RedSoxFan and Macroman were the only ones who didn't give me the normal "I wouldn't tell you if I was on the EC. Are you?" speech. For whatever it's worth, here they are...

Nope. I'm certain that at least one chess player is, though, and I'm most suspicious of Ebenezer Kohlx.

Oh, I am emphatically not a member of the EC. Not that you should trust anyone who makes that assertion. At this point we are shooting in the dark. I think we have to lynch someone too, but I don't want it to be me.

Right now I think the interesting question is, who is the slayer? While the EC certainly has incentive to be quiet, so does the slayer. Of course, we should not try to unmask the slayer, but we should also not lynch the slayer.

I find it interesting that your's is the first PM I have received, even though I have been on the short end of a witch hunt.

Some private strategy, I think it's quite possible that Cho Da or Gandalf is EC, but at this point I wouldn't want to lynch either unless I was fairly certain. As the game goes on if the EC doesn't take them out it becomes increasingly likely that they are EC. The same would go for any experienced players, but they seem the most experienced.

Why did you PM, if you were gonna post it here? I'll be sure not to PM you anything "private".

[Traina]

I don't think that's fair, posting things people told you in private.

[fallout]

I don't think that's fair, posting things people told you in private.

Spoken like a member of the ec... very suspicious traina...

[Traina]

:shake: I was agreeing with you, fallout.

[fallout]

:shake: I was agreeing with you, fallout.

Agreeeing with me is a very suspicious move...

[abacustwo]

Well I have deleted what they have said even though I don't see its "unfairness." It's still in your post though.

fallout: I'd only post something if I thought you were on the EC. I just wanted to see what everyone thought about their PMs.

[fallout]

Well I have deleted what they have said even though I don't see its "unfairness." It's still in your post though.

fallout: I'd only post something if I thought you were on the EC. I just wanted to see what everyone thought about their PMs.

Yes, but your misdeed is captured in my quoting of your posting of their private messages. Very suspicious behavior if you ask me...

[abacustwo]

I was just reminding you to take it out too. But apparently you just want to leave it in your post. I will leave it up to the rest. If they vote to see Macroman's and RedSoxFan's PMs, I will post them. (Or everyone's PM if they want it).

[fallout]

I was just reminding you to take it out too. But apparently you just want to leave it in your post. I will leave it up to the rest. If they vote to see Macroman's and RedSoxFan's PMs, I will post them. (Or everyone's PM if they want it).

Too much voting in this thread. I vote that we don't vote.

[Gandalf]

I don't think that's fair, posting things people told you in private.

Spoken like a member of the ec... very suspicious traina...
Normally I think PMs should be private. Game-related PMs, though, I would think are not. Usually I wouldn't see any reason to publicize a game-related PM, but if I think it would help expose the EC, I'm posting it.

That Traina. post doesn't sound like evidence for or against her being EC. From all her posts so far, I would say she's less likely than average to be EC. Not a good choice for an early lynch, IMO.

[Werewolf]

Yes, I've considered that and think it's a good point. Again, I'm switching to the 'EC would lay low at this point' theory. Therefore the only people who definitely aren't EC are:

Gandalf
Voter
Polly
Ebenezer
plain m&m
ahow
JT


Decent theory, except there are other reasons why someone would be laying low. Work or family responsibilities, for example: curse the real world for interfering with the Rebel Forum!

[abacustwo]

I still don't get why fallout made a big deal about me posting the PMs and still has them up.

[fallout]

I still don't get why fallout made a big deal about me posting the PMs and still has them up.

Pretty suspicious behaviour if you ask me.

[fallout]

I don't think that's fair, posting things people told you in private.

Spoken like a member of the ec... very suspicious traina...
Normally I think PMs should be private. Game-related PMs, though, I would think are not. Usually I wouldn't see any reason to publicize a game-related PM, but if I think it would help expose the EC, I'm posting it.

That Traina. post doesn't sound like evidence for or against her being EC. From all her posts so far, I would say she's less likely than average to be EC. Not a good choice for an early lynch, IMO.

Protecting Traina huh? Not unlike the expected activities one member of the ec would do to protect the other. Very suspicious indeed.

[fallout]

Hey can we slay Mr. P? (he knows too much)

[abacustwo]

Is it just me, or does everyone want to kick fallout in the face?

fallout: Just answer this question. Why do you still have the PMs posted when you were making such a big deal about them being posted for the public to see earlier?

[Macroman]

I don't think that's fair, posting things people told you in private.

I'd be offended, but I ended up posting mostly the same things here so that they were no longer "private thoughts". :argue:

[Werewolf]

I think it's suspicious that Werewolf has yet to post here even though he has several recent posts. That is not entirely out of character, however.

VOTE: werewolf

Werewolf, come out and defend yourself.

Sure thing. Macroman is mistaken, and this can be verified. My last post before this hour was, I think, around Thursday night. I have been away from my computer entirely for about 40 hours.

Just for that egregious error, I'll say
VOTE: Macroman

[Macroman]

I think it's suspicious that Werewolf has yet to post here even though he has several recent posts. That is not entirely out of character, however.

VOTE: werewolf

Werewolf, come out and defend yourself.

Sure thing. Macroman is mistaken, and this can be verified. My last post before this hour was, I think, around Thursday night. I have been away from my computer entirely for about 40 hours.

Just for that egregious error, I'll say
VOTE: Macroman

You must have been busy deleting posts today. Regardless, I'm glad to have you in the game. Unvote: werewolf

[Avi]

Interesting. I got a PM from someone asking me if I'm a member of the exam committee. Normally I wouldn't blurt out such things, but for this game I will [Did anyone else get these messages?]

Yes I did, and it suggests to me that the person sending is EC for the following reason.

The REAL EC know who each other are, so there is no reason for them to ask for informative purposes.

The students and slayer, if they have any modicum of sophistication know that the EC will not volunteer such information. To ask this question of anyone with a few brain cells will always return a negative answer.

The only reason I can consider someone asking such a question is that they are EC, but are hoping that some student will not realize that the question is rediculous and will then assume that the sender is a student as well albiet--as I pointed out--such a supposition is completely illogical.

[Macroman]

Good enough for me.

VOTE: cmu_stu

[fallout]

Is it just me, or does everyone want to kick fallout in the face?

fallout: Just answer this question. Why do you still have the PMs posted when you were making such a big deal about them being posted for the public to see earlier?

It seems suspicious doesn't it?

I trust noone. For all I know this could be the Joe Schmo show and I am the Schmo.

(edited to take space out between no and one)

[Gandalf]

Some have questioned why I think ghosts can give the players a big advantage compared to no ghosts. There are two main reasons:
1. Ghosts can ensure that students never execute their slayer, and keep the slayer’s identity hidden in the process. (Minor exception, we may kill our slayer, but if so we’ll kill an EC for sure the next round.)
2. Ghosts can make the EC less sure where the vote is headed, and hence may make it more likely that the EC will betray themselves.

Here’s how I see it working:
The slayer identifies himself to the ghost(s). In the general discussion phase, the students (including EC) identify 4 likely lynchees, not a single one. The ghosts announce which of those 4 is to by lynched. Then a majority votes for that victim.

1. The ghosts will never select the slayer, so the students can’t kill their slayer by mistake. The EC won’t know whether one of the other three potential victims was spared because he was the slayer, or whether the slayer wasn’t in the pool.
2. Since any one of the top 4 may be executed, the EC is likely to try to keep themselves out of the top 4 suspect list, not just out of the #1 slot.

Minor flaw: two people might tell the ghosts they are the slayer. In that case, (unless a real student non-slayer is acting irrationally), one of them must be EC. The ghosts select one of the two for lynching this round. If unfortunately we lynch our slayer, we’ll still get a replacement, and we know to lynch the imposter the next round.

Potential major flaw: can the ghosts be trusted? I hope so. Ghosts who were killed by the students or the slayer should realize that it was an honest mistake by players operating in the blind, and realize the real foe is the EC. OTOH, if the ghosts reveal the slayer’s identity to the EC, or if they protect an EC who was in the pool of potential victims, the system breaks down big time.

Should we take that risk? I think yes, especially since we can recover. If the EC wipes out a couple of slayers, who will be replaced, we change the strategy to using a subset of ghosts.

OTOH, if you want to be sure of a ghost you can trust, kill me now. I don’t recommend it. I know I’m not EC, and we would be better off taking a shot at someone who might be EC. Macroman probably isn’t EC, but he might be, so I would rather see him lynched. Maybe we get an EC. If not, we still have the ghost that will destroy the EC. But the odds Macroman (or any other possibility) are EC are so small that if you just want to make me the ghost, that’s fine.

[RedSoxFan]

I'm not going to be a part of this game anymore if people post PRIVATE messages.

[Macroman]

I'll go along with Gandalf's proposed strategy if you want to lynch me. I would be a ghost you could trust.

I still think it's a better idea to lynch cmu_stu because I think he's shown himself to be suspect by the PMs and then committed at least a minor breach of ettiquette by posting the PMs.

[Jables]

cmu_stu, care to share your reasons for this?

Gandalf is a wizard (http://chuma.cas.usf.edu/~dking3/real_ultimate_power.htm). He is highly likely to flip out and kill people.

VOTE: GANDALF

Again, a temporary thing.
Probably. :)

Temporary indeed. :)
UNVOTE: Gandalf

I too (as did everyone, I imagine) got a PM from cmu_stu. My response does not appear to be one of the few he had posted today. Regardless, his tactics seem shady... I will follow Macroman's lead and VOTE: cmu_stu

[Klaymen]

Lynch the PM-spammer!

Unvote: Redsoxfan
Vote: cmu_stu

[4sigma]

Mithrandir,

Thanks for posting the ghost strategy. I think this is a significant contribution to the potential welfare of all us innocent students. Here are my comments:

-- Rules clarification, please, from Mr. Penguin, to confirm that this is within the scope of activities permitted for ghosts. For example, we don’t want our slayer to PM the ghosts, only to find out that this isn’t what Mr. Penguin actually intended to allow, and that this inadvertantly somehow compromises our slayer or limits subsequent participation by ghosts.

-- Regarding the “major flaw”, I recommend that we select a single trustworthy ghost to perform this. Preferably one executed by EC, who will have no axe to grind with the remaining innocent students or the slayer. Nothing personal against present living company, but I think this is our best guarantee to avoid potential betrayal or vengeance by a disgruntled ghost. If there are any signs of betrayal, we can always dump him for a new ghost. But the chances of betrayal by one ghost have got to be less than the chances of betrayal by multiple ghosts.

Also, a decision can be reached much faster by a single ghost than by a committee of ghosts. Speed may well be of the essence. Realize that (A) the students have to agree on 4 potential lynchees (B) the ghost then selects someone to be lynched. (C) Enough votes then need to be rounded up among the living to perform the lynching on schedule. All within 72 hours. We’re going to want to use as much of our 72 hours as we can on (A) in order to have our best chance at lynching an EC, and need to allow at least several waking hours for (C). So logistically, we don’t have all that much time for step (B).

Best is for the chosen ghost to use a random number generator to perform the lynching. This avoids the possibility of a biased ghost unwittingly reluctant to lynch a friend who, unbeknownst to him, is on the EC.

-- Regarding the “minor flaw”, I don’t think this is going to be a problem. The slayer just has to PM Hagbard immediately. (Assuming we have Mr. Penguin’s blessing.) EC won’t dare PM Hagbard, because it will get them lynched in very short order. Even if Hagbard doesn’t get his messages for a week (condolences, btw, Hagbard), such a ploy by EC would still get them lynched as soon as Hagbard returns and finds PMs from two people both claiming to be the slayer.

-- One other potential flaw is that this strategy is utterly dependent upon rational play by each and every innocent student. Specifically, nobody must claim to be the slayer if they are not actually the slayer. In the strategy you discussed earlier in the thread, you mentioned the possibility of a student claiming to be the slayer in order to preserve his life for a short time. In the earlier case, the harm done to the students was minimal -- it created a bluffing sort of situation where the student might either be lynched, slain, or executed. The mathematical disadvantage to the students was fairly small.

But if we are to adopt the ghosts strategy you have just outlined, it can be utterly ruined by any misguided student who claims to be the slayer if he is not. This is almost certain to get our actual slayer lynched as well as the misguided innocent student. These are further two missed opportunities to lynch an EC. So we must be very confident in the resolve of all our innocent students to "take one for the team" if they are at risk of being lynched.

Also, if either of the EC members is so devious as to be playing under multiple ID's, (was this prohibited?) they could get our slayer torpedoed without revealing their EC identity, by claiming to be the slayer with their non-EC identity.

-- As an additional point of discussion, I'm curious why you recommend the ghost chooses from a set of 4. Is this better than a set of 3 or a set of 5? I'm still digesting this a bit, but it's not obvious to me whether 4 is optimum.

[duodenum]

Lynch the PM-spammer!

Unvote: Redsoxfan
Vote: cmu_stu

I agree. Voting: cmu_stu.

[Gandalf]

Responses to 4sigma: Before going public with this strategy, I confirmed with Mr. Penguin it is OK. If anyone thinks I may be EC trying to lure you into taking a valuable student out of your team or weaken the slayer, kill me now. If EC, you've slain wisely. If student, you've got a ghost who is 100% behind the ghost strategy, and who will have no bitterness toward those who killed him.

Males in the pool should realize I'm admittedly sexist, and have a bias against lynching females, but not a prohibition against it.

Regarding the “major flaw”, I recommend that we select a single trustworthy ghost to perform this. Preferably one executed by EC, who will have no axe to grind with the remaining innocent students or the slayer. Nothing personal against present living company, but I think this is our best guarantee to avoid potential betrayal or vengeance by a disgruntled ghost. If there are any signs of betrayal, we can always dump him for a new ghost. But the chances of betrayal by one ghost have got to be less than the chances of betrayal by multiple ghosts. That was actually an improvement I was going to suggest after people bought in to the basics. There is no reason for more than one ghost to know the slayer. It may be desirable for others to decide the lynchee.

Re decision process: Within time constraints, there's no reason not to let a panel of ghosts debate further. The panel need not know who the slayer is. The one ghost who knows the slayer can select the lynchee randomly from the panel's leading candidates, with the provision that he'll never select the lynchee.

Re: innocent student lying about being the slayer: Such a person is not innocent. However, there are some strong safeguards available. The slayer should not wait until threatened to disclose his identity. So all purported slayers will be asked to PM their identity to the appointed ghost right away. As long as the real slayer does, we won't be fooled by a subsequent fake. We'll make it clear in advance that if we learn of multiple "slayers" the fakes are doomed. Then, hopefully, if we get multiple slayers, the fakes will confess. They'll still be doomed, but if they realize they're doomed then hopefully we won't have to lose the slayer to identify the fakes.

Re multiple ids: I hope it's understood that's not allowed. Forgetting the information issues, it would be grossly unfair to have an EC member also voting as a student, or even worse, in the role of slayer.

Re: pool of 4 vs 3 or 5. I have no idea what's optimal. I think 2 clearly is not, as it gives the EC too much incentive to gamble that the lynchee not lynched was not because he was the slayer, especially (as likely will happen), a person not lynched is likely to remain a suspect in the next round. We want a relatively small pool so that the active students' deliberations are very important: EC has a strong incentive to stay out of the pool.

Re: random decisions by the ghost or ghosts. If I were the single ghost deciding, here's my decision rule:
1. Relative weights 40,20,20,20 to the students' primary candidate and the other 3.
2. Cut weight of any female in half (admitted bias, especially when I have a main squeeze in the game. But I wouldn't absolutely protect anyone. And, if facts seem to indicate a female is very likely to be EC, I would drop the adjustment).
3. Multiply weight of the slayer by 0.
4. Choose randomly (but weighted) from the 3 or 4 possibilities.

[Gandalf]

If Hagbard posts that he is ready and willing to be an active ghost, that's fine with me. He can be the only one knowing the slayer.

If we don't know Hagbard's interest in the role, we need a ghost who's on board. Macroman says he's on board. I'm on board. I don't know whether cmu_stu is on board at all, or if I have confidence in his following through. To reinforce my commitment

Unvote Macroman. Vote Gandalf.
All of you use your good judgment. If Hagbard steps up, I hope you won't kill me.

[Avi]

Interesting. I got a PM from someone asking me if I'm a member of the exam committee. Normally I wouldn't blurt out such things, but for this game I will [Did anyone else get these messages?]

Yes I did, and it suggests to me that the person sending is EC for the following reason.

The REAL EC know who each other are, so there is no reason for them to ask for informative purposes.

The students and slayer, if they have any modicum of sophistication know that the EC will not volunteer such information. To ask this question of anyone with a few brain cells will always return a negative answer.

The only reason I can consider someone asking such a question is that they are EC, but are hoping that some student will not realize that the question is rediculous and will then assume that the sender is a student as well albiet--as I pointed out--such a supposition is completely illogical.Putting my money where my mouth is:Vote: cmu_stu