Poker: AK 3 handed

[MNBridge]

Sit and Go NL tourney: 1st $250; 2nd $150, 3rd $100

3 players left you are in the BB.

Blinds 150 / 300

Button: 6200
SB: 1800 (150 of which is in the blind)
BB: (you): 2000 (300 of which is in the blind)

Button raises to 600. (Button has been neither ultra agressive or ultra passive)
SB Folds
You have AKo

What do you do?

[minus790]

All in

[O_Dog]

I'm pretty sure I'd move all in at this point.

(But I'm guessing you wouldn't be posting this unless there was some twist...like running into aces or something)

[Bama Gambler]

All-in.

[Voter]

I'm not as fond of all-in's as a lot of people here, but I think a re-raise of some order is appropriate. I usually play PL, and a re-raise of 300 would get the point across that if he's just on a steal, he better give it up.

[MNBridge]

Went all - in and got called by and lost to a pair of 2's.

I'm fairly certain that AK is my downfall (I have tracker and if I can ever figure it out will know for sure).

It seems like more and more often I get AK end up all in preflop and lose to an under pair. Just not sure what to do about it.

[vegas]

No thinking needed. All-in.

You want to win AK pre-flop, but you don't mind getting called in this situation.

[Sotally Tober]

I'm not as fond of all-in's as a lot of people here, but I think a re-raise of some order is appropriate. I usually play PL, and a re-raise of 300 would get the point across that if he's just on a steal, he better give it up.

It's got to be all-in. A raise of 300 (1/20th of the buttons stack) means very little to him. It's a relatively cheap flop. No reason to risk him not getting the message. Move in.

[Voter]

I'm not as fond of all-in's as a lot of people here, but I think a re-raise of some order is appropriate. I usually play PL, and a re-raise of 300 would get the point across that if he's just on a steal, he better give it up.

It's got to be all-in. A raise of 300 (1/20th of the buttons stack) means very little to him. It's a relatively cheap flop. No reason to risk him not getting the message. Move in.
The all-in was relatively cheap to him apparently.

With the 300 re-raise, you miss the flop, and check. Either he bets and you fold, or he checks as well, having missed the set. Either way you live to see another hand. And if you hit the flop, great.

[Bama Gambler]

At this point he will call you with a lot of hands that your AK will dominate (AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, possibly Ax, etc.) I can't think of a better time to go all-in. You don't care if he calls (since you with most likely be a big favorite or a slight dog) and you don't care if he folds (since you will pick up a nice pot and put a lot of pressure on the 3rd place guy). Don't sweat this one. You lost on a coin flip.

[Voter]

At this point he will call you with a lot of hands that your AK will dominate (AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, possibly Ax, etc.) I can't think of a better time to go all-in. You don't care if he calls (since you with most likely be a big favorite or a slight dog) and you don't care if he folds (since you will pick up a nice pot and put a lot of pressure on the 3rd place guy). Don't sweat this one. You lost on a coin flip.
Personally I don't like to put my whole stack to a coin flip when I don't need to.

Even if you're a 70% favorite, get called twice and you're again reduced to a coin flip.

[Cohete009]

You have basically 1700 in chips left, and if you just call or re raise without going all in, and he checks/calls, and you don't hit your A or K, you will be shortly blinded out.

Let's say you move all in like you did. The button (big stack) has to call 1400 more, and with a pair, playing 3 handed, he is 99% going to call.

If you win the hand, you are basically tied in chips. You gotta play to win, AKo, there is only one choice. All-in. You can't risk just posting and being blinded out at this point in the tourney.

[FSAme]

Personally I don't like to put my whole stack to a coin flip when I don't need to.


I don't either, but this is a "need to" situation if you want to win.

[Voter]

I don't either, but this is a "need to" situation if you want to win.
You gotta play to win
Well, no, you don't have to play to win. At this point you could play for second, and if you make that, then play to win.

If you miss the flop, you're hurt, but not much worse off than the second stack. He could still easily go out before you. We know big stack will call without much at this point.

I guess that's a big difference in approach - is your primary goal to win, or to move up?

[minus790]

Primary goal really should be to win at this point.

There is $200 left to be made - $50 for making 2nd place, and an additional $150 for first.

The magnitude of the reward for first easily merits the risk of going for it. This is a monster hand short-handed, you have a chance to win the pot here, and a chance to double up on what will, at worst, be a coin flip. Honestly, I think all in is a no-brainer.

When you get beaten, shrug it off. Concentrate on the process and not the results - it's so important in poker.

[Cohete009]

I guess that's a big difference in approach - is your primary goal to win, or to move up?

I don't know many people that play a tournament just to be in the money so of course the primary goal is to win. In order to move up, you have to lay it on the line sometimes, and in this case I believe there is only one choice.

You win the hand and the big stack can't bully you two out of your chips until you fall over. If you get out of the hand after the flop you will only be faced with the same dilemma the next "ok" hand.

[Voter]

Primary goal really should be to win at this point.

There is $200 left to be made - $50 for making 2nd place, and an additional $150 for first.

The magnitude of the reward for first easily merits the risk of going for it. This is a monster hand short-handed, you have a chance to win the pot here, and a chance to double up on what will, at worst, be a coin flip. Honestly, I think all in is a no-brainer.

When you get beaten, shrug it off. Concentrate on the process and not the results - it's so important in poker.
You guys act like there's nothing to be made without going all-in!

Remember, I'm suggesting putting almost half the stack in preflop. If you hit the flop, even if he folds, you've increased your stack by almost 50%, and increased your chances of winning first place. There's also the chance that if you bet out he thinks you're bluffing and calls, and you still double-up.

It's the same strategy, just lower swings. If you double your chips in two hands instead of one, you've still doubled your chips.

I just don't get the all-in or nothing mentality - guess that's why I play PL - less gambling. :)

[Voter]

I don't know many people that play a tournament just to be in the money so of course the primary goal is to win. I disagree - if that were the case, they'd only pay out first place. Since most pay 3 places, people obviously want a hedge. If they offered SNG's that only paid the winner, I'll bet it would take awhile for them to fill up.

[Voter]

You win the hand and the big stack can't bully you two out of your chips until you fall over.
If you win 1000 chips from him, he'll probably stop bullying you. Actually, we were told that he wasn't bullying ("has been neither ultra agressive..."), so that's not really a problem. 3-handed any pocket pair is a legitimate hand, and he only made the minimum raise with it.
If you get out of the hand after the flop you will only be faced with the same dilemma the next "ok" hand.
Relative to already having busted out, that's a mighty nice 'dilemma' to be in! :P

[Bama Gambler]

When the action comes to you pre-flop the pot is already 900. You only have 1700 left. Your opponent has more chips and position. If you call the 300 and then check-fold the flop (if no Ace or King comes) then you have 1400 left with blinds of 150-300 three handed. All-in is THE only play.

[Voter]

Basically it comes down to this. You have a choice between two scenarios.

1. 4000 chips or 0 chips

2. 3000 chips or 1000 chips

(That's simplified, as I pointed out if you hit the flop he might still call and you get the 4000 chips anyway.)

IMO there is somewhat of an advantage in having 4000 chips as opposed to 3000 chips, but there is a huge advantage in having 1000 chips as opposed to busting out.

[Bama Gambler]

all-in

[Cohete009]

When the action comes to you pre-flop the pot is already 900. You only have 1700 left. Your opponent has more chips and position. If you call the 300 and then check-fold the flop (if no Ace or King comes) then you have 1400 left with blinds of 150-300 three handed. All-in is THE only play.


Exactly. That is why no limit is the game. All-in baby! If you lose, so what, you have to play this hand this way. If you have only 1000 chips or whatever like you say, you don't have any chips to make a move. Big stack will be getting the correct odds to call with anything.

[Bama Gambler]

Basically it comes down to this. You have a choice between two scenarios.

1. 4000 chips or 0 chips

2. 3000 chips or 1000 chips

(That's simplified, as I pointed out if you hit the flop he might still call and you get the 4000 chips anyway.)

IMO there is somewhat of an advantage in having 4000 chips as opposed to 3000 chips, but there is a huge advantage in having 1000 chips as opposed to busting out.The problem with this logic is in case 1 you will end up on the 4000 side much more than 0 side. In case 2 you will end up on the 1000 side more than the 3000 side.

[minus790]

Bama said it perfectly.

By my estimates, if you call, you're going to end up at 1400 2/3 of the time, and at 3500ish 1/3 of the time. This would seem to translate to an expected winning% of around 21%, if you buy the estimate that your relative chip count is directly related to your chances of winning.

If you raise all in, sometimes he'll drop his cards, say 20%, leaving you at 2750. Most of the times, he'll call, and you'll be, on average, a 2:1 favorite... meaning that 50% of the time you're going to come out at 4150, and 30% of the time you're going to bust out.
Expected winning% on this play is 26%, significantly better.

[Voter]

The problem with this logic is in case 1 you will end up on the 4000 side much more than 0 side. In case 2 you will end up on the 1000 side more than the 3000 side.Why?

[Bama Gambler]

The problem with this logic is in case 1 you will end up on the 4000 side much more than 0 side. In case 2 you will end up on the 1000 side more than the 3000 side.Why?What happens if you don't flop an ace or king (which will happen about 70% of the time)? If you check he will certainly bet any two cards. If you bet you will only be called if you are beat. Since you are (1) out of position, (2) out stacked, and (3) most likely have the best hand - eliminate all guess work. All-in.

[Voter]

What happens if you don't flop an ace or king (which will happen about 70% of the time)? If you check he will certainly bet any two cards. No it's not. I see people check underpairs to the river all the time.If you bet you will only be called if you are beat.First, how does he know his 2's beat you? Second, with his stack he might call with nothing, or he might fold with the (unkown to him) best hand. You don't know that he'll only call if he has you beat.
eliminate all guess work
I think in a lot of cases that's the real motivation for the all-in.

[Voter]

Bama said it perfectly.

By my estimates, if you call, you're going to end up at 1400 2/3 of the time, and at 3500ish 1/3 of the time. This would seem to translate to an expected winning% of around 21%, if you buy the estimate that your relative chip count is directly related to your chances of winning.

If you raise all in, sometimes he'll drop his cards, say 20%, leaving you at 2750. Most of the times, he'll call, and you'll be, on average, a 2:1 favorite... meaning that 50% of the time you're going to come out at 4150, and 30% of the time you're going to bust out.
Expected winning% on this play is 26%, significantly better.
1) I never said call, I said reraise 300. If he's on a pure steal, he might fold. With the stack sizes, there's not much difference to him, as we see by the fact that he did call the all-in.

2) I think "on average, a 2:1 favorite" is incorrect. You're a dog to any pocket pair, and only 60% favorite to a hand like QJs.

3) Even if you are a 2:1 favorite, go all-in twice with those odds and you're a 56% favorite to bust out.

[Bama Gambler]

What happens if you don't flop an ace or king (which will happen about 70% of the time)? If you check he will certainly bet any two cards. No it's not. I see people check underpairs to the river all the time.He raised pre-flop. You call and then check. If he doesn't bet he is a very poor player.

If you bet you will only be called if you are beat.First, how does he know his 2's beat you? Second, with his stack he might call with nothing, or he might fold with the (unkown to him) best hand. You don't know that he'll only call if he has you beat.Hard for him to call 1400 on the flop without a pair. So if you bet all-in on the flop and he calls then you are beat (or at least behind).

eliminate all guess work
I think in a lot of cases that's the real motivation for the all-in.Here's the rule. Think to yourself if I raise less than all-in and he re-raises me all-in, will I be excited to call? If the answer is no I won't be excited but I will have to call, then go ahead and go all-in. If the answer is yes I will be excited to call, then go ahead and raise the smaller amount and hope he puts you all-in. In this case, you would rather pick up the 900 no contest. I can't think of a better way to do that then to raise all-in (an extra 1400).

[Bama Gambler]

1) I never said call, I said reraise 300. If he's on a pure steal, he might fold. With the stack sizes, there's not much difference to him, as we see by the fact that he did call the all-in.What if he re-raises all-in after you raise 300? You'd call right? Then why not raise all-in and not give him a chance to make that play with a hand like QJ. If you raise all-in first he will fold a lot of hands that you don't want to gamble against.

[Voter]

He raised pre-flop. You call and then check.
No, I reraise. You guys are arguing against a phantom position.
If he doesn't bet he is a very poor player.
First, there are a lot of very poor players out there. Second, since I reraised preflop, a good player could easily suspect a check-raise and so, with a small pair, check behind me.
Hard for him to call 1400 on the flop without a pair. So if you bet all-in on the flop and he calls then you are beat (or at least behind).Same logic should apply preflop. My way, a reraise indicates you're behind, and you still have some chips left. Your way, a call indicates you're behind, and there's nothing you can do about it. Part of the preflop raise is for information. If you get bad news, you're still alive. If you go all-in and get bad news, it's too late to adjust.
Here's the rule. Think to yourself if I raise less than all-in and he re-raises me all-in, will I be excited to call? If the answer is no I won't be excited but I will have to call, then go ahead and go all-in. I agree with the rule but disagree that it applies here. He doesn't have to call an all-in. He'd still have enough chips for a shot at a comeback. If he had started the hand with half as many chips, I would agree to go all-in preflop with this hand. But that's not the case.

[Voter]

What if he re-raises all-in after you raise 300? You'd call right? No, I'd fold. We're told he's not a super-aggressive player, so he probably has a pocket pair. That makes me a dog, and with his stack he's probably in to the river.

Do you guys sometimes go all-in just to avoid making difficult lay-downs?

[Voter]

What happens if you don't flop an ace or king (which will happen about 70% of the time)?
BTW, same question back at you. What will you do if you don't flop an ace or king and you're all-in?

[Bama Gambler]

First, raising to 300 is crazy. When it comes to you the pot is 900. If you raise 300 then that means you put 600 more in. That means when the pot gets back to him he will be getting 5:1 on a call. You are going to lay 5:1 with AK? And then you say you would fold if he comes over the top? At that point you would be getting 2.6:1. Which means you HAVE to call (unless you can put him AA or KK - which I don't think you can).

As I see it you have two options: stop-and-go (call pre-flop and go all-in on the flop regards) or go all-in pre-flop. The only way I would do the first if I was REALLY sure he had a small pocket pair that he would laydown on the flop but not pre-flop. I don't think you can even say that with 50% certainty here. He could easily have AQ, AJ, AT, Ax, KQ, KJ, JT, etc. He could also have any two cards and applying pressure since you two guys are so close.

All-in.

[Bama Gambler]

What happens if you don't flop an ace or king (which will happen about 70% of the time)?
BTW, same question back at you. What will you do if you don't flop an ace or king and you're all-in?Most of the time I'm still take the pot down b/c he won't have a pocket pair. He have a hand like AQ, AJ, or AT and he will be drawing to three cards. Pocket pairs are less likely than two big cards.

[vegas]

I don't know many people that play a tournament just to be in the money so of course the primary goal is to win. In order to move up, you have to lay it on the line sometimes, and in this case I believe there is only one choice.


As the table gets down to 5 people or so, it becomes obvious to me that people are getting a bit tighter. At that stage of the game, the shorter stacks are waiting for their chance, the mid stacks are trying not to make a mistake and the large stacks are sitting back and waiting for everyone else to knock each other out.

Of course we all want to win, but I'll take 3rd over 4th or 5th anyday.

[Voter]

First, raising to 300 is crazy.
No it's not.

If he was on a pure steal, he might fold.

If he calls, you see the flop and play from there.

If he comes back all-in, you've gained the information you need to fold, and you still have more than half your stack left.
That means when the pot gets back to him he will be getting 5:1 on a call. You are going to lay 5:1 with AK? And then you say you would fold if he comes over the top? At that point you would be getting 2.6:1. Which means you HAVE to call (unless you can put him AA or KK - which I don't think you can).
No, I don't HAVE to call. Pot odds don't have the importance in this situation that they have in a limit ring game.
Most of the time I'm still take the pot down b/c he won't have a pocket pair. He have a hand like AQ, AJ, or AT and he will be drawing to three cards. Pocket pairs are less likely than two big cards.
There's 3*12=36 ways to make AQ, AJ or AT. There's 6*11+3*2=72 ways to make pocket pairs (I think). Adding KQ and KJ roughly evens it out.

[Bama Gambler]

So you are trying to tell me that if you raised 300 (leaving you with 1000) and he re-raised you all-in making the pot 2800, you would fold. Folding would leave you with 1000 and the blinds are 150-300. Not to mention you are about to post the small blind. You are getting 2.8:1 when at worst you are a coin flip. Odds certainly matter here b/c 95% of the time you won't be getting any better odds on your money if you fold this hand. Folding here is called weak-tight.

[Voter]

So you are trying to tell me that if you raised 300 (leaving you with 1000) and he re-raised you all-in making the pot 2800, you would fold. Folding would leave you with 1000 and the blinds are 150-300. Not to mention you are about to post the small blind. You are getting 2.8:1 when at worst you are a coin flip. Odds certainly matter here b/c 95% of the time you won't be getting any better odds on your money if you fold this hand. Folding here is called weak-tight.With his image, a re-raise probably indicates a pocket pair, and pockets 5 & up are ~55% favorites over AKo. Calling here is called gambling.

[Voter]

BTW, I raised him already, how does respecting his reraise make me weak-tight? By that logic, you can never raise for information, because you always have to call a reraise in order not to feel weak-tight!

[FSAme]

With his image, a re-raise probably indicates a pocket pair, and pockets 5 & up are ~55% favorites over AKo. Calling here is called gambling.

And not calling is even more of a gamble. With the blinds the size they are, you've got about 1 more round before you're stack is worthless. You gonna gamble that you'll get a better hand than AK in that stretch? What are the odds of getting better than AK in the next 6 hands? Less than ~45% I'm sure.

[Bama Gambler]

IMO, you are gambling if you fold. You can only see 6 more hands before you are blinded out. After you post the small blind on the next hand you will only have 850 left. Now you are almost destined for 3rd place. If you don't pick up a hand on the button and then someone raises your BB you are down to 550. But then you have turn around and post the small blind. Now we are down to 400. Now you can't even raise 2x the BB from the button.

It's weak b/c you raised 300 into a pot of 1200 and it's tight because you folded most likely the best hand when the pot is laying you 2.8:1. You ever watch the pros on t.v.? You will never see a pro raise 25% of a pot in NL. Especially when it will leave his stack size smaller than the pot.

[Voter]

With his image, a re-raise probably indicates a pocket pair, and pockets 5 & up are ~55% favorites over AKo. Calling here is called gambling.

And not calling is even more of a gamble. With the blinds the size they are, you've got about 1 more round before you're stack is worthless. You gonna gamble that you'll get a better hand than AK in that stretch? What are the odds of getting better than AK in the next 6 hands? Less than ~45% I'm sure.No, I won't make that gamble - but I'll gamble that someone else will have a worse hand than a pocket pair in that time!

Your point isn't worth much, because your hand doesn't occur in a vacuum. IOW, which would you rather play - AK against 99, or J6 against T4?

[Bama Gambler]

No, I won't make that gamble - but I'll gamble that someone else will have a worse hand than a pocket pair in that time!

Your point isn't worth much, because your hand doesn't occur in a vacuum. IOW, which would you rather play - AK against 99, or J6 against T4?How are you so sure he has a pocket pair? He is equally likely to have any two big cards (in which case you are big favorite). Also I would rather play AK agaisnt 99 for a 4000 pot than J6 against T4 for an 800 pot.

[Voter]

IMO, you are gambling if you fold. You can only see 6 more hands before you are blinded out. After you post the small blind on the next hand you will only have 850 left. Now you are almost destined for 3rd place. If you don't pick up a hand on the button and then someone raises your BB you are down to 550. But then you have turn around and post the small blind. Now we are down to 400. Now you can't even raise 2x the BB from the button.And how is that worse than a 55% chance of busting out immediately?
It's weak b/c you raised 300 into a pot of 1200 and it's tight because you folded most likely the best hand when the pot is laying you 2.8:1.
No, when a player who has not been overlay aggressive comes over the top against your reraise, you can't conclude that you most likely had the best hand.
You ever watch the pros on t.v.?
Yes, but I don't think they're playing in this SNG.

[Voter]

Also I would rather play AK agaisnt 99 for a 4000 pot than J6 against T4 for an 800 pot.
Why?

[Bama Gambler]

And how is that worse than a 55% chance of busting out immediately?Well for one the upshot. If you hit the 45% chance here you end up with 4000. If you hit the upshot when you fold this hand you end up with 800.

No, when a player who has not been overlay aggressive comes over the top against your reraise, you can't conclude that you most likely had the best hand.Three handed most people raise with any ace, any two big cards, and any pocket pair. Especially when they have a comanding chip lead. I think it pretty safe to assume you have the best hand and if you don't then you are too big of a under-dog either.

Yes, but I don't think they're playing in this SNG.Doesn't mean you can't learn from them. I wasn't trying to say assume the other guy makes decisions like a pro, but certainly you should.

[Bama Gambler]

Also I would rather play AK agaisnt 99 for a 4000 pot than J6 against T4 for an 800 pot.
Why?You're joking right?

[Voter]

Well for one the upshot. If you hit the 45% chance here you end up with 4000.The upshot seems to be all you see, even if there's only a 45% chance of hitting it.
Three handed most people raise with any ace, any two big cards, and any pocket pair.Sure, that's why I agree to reraise, but now we're contemplating an all-in to my reraise. This increases the chance that it's a pocket pair.
You're joking right?No, just wondering why.

.55*0 + .45*4000 = 1800
.63*2400 + .37*1600 = 2104

[Bama Gambler]

No, just wondering why.

.55*0 + .45*4000 = 1800
.63*2400 + .37*1600 = 2104That second eqn is wrong. You will only have 400 left and then will be forced to play with any hand. So the prob should be .5 and .5; the amounts should be 800+150 (assuming the small blind folds) and 0. The second eqn should read .5*0 + .5*950 = 475.

[Bama Gambler]

Actually the first eqn is wrong because it assumes your opponent has a pocket pair and while that may be more likely than two big cards it certainly is 100%. So you understated the first eqn and overstated the 2nd eqn.

[Voter]

So you're backing out of: "Also I would rather play AK agaisnt 99 for a 4000 pot than J6 against T4 for an 800 pot."?

[Bama Gambler]

So you're backing out of: "Also I would rather play AK agaisnt 99 for a 4000 pot than J6 against T4 for an 800 pot."?No, what makes you think that.

[Voter]

No, what makes you think that.Only read the second post. Going to the first:
That second eqn is wrong. You will only have 400 left and then will be forced to play with any hand. So the prob should be .5 and .5; the amounts should be 800+150 (assuming the small blind folds) and 0. The second eqn should read .5*0 + .5*950 = 475.
Uh, how do you figure? If you start with 2000 chips and play for an 800 chip pot, the pot is 400 yours, 400 your opponents. So, you end up with either 1600 or 2400.

[Bama Gambler]

So you're backing out of: "Also I would rather play AK agaisnt 99 for a 4000 pot than J6 against T4 for an 800 pot."?In the AK vs 99, I can expect .55*0 + .45*4000 = 1800.
In the J6 vs T4, I can expect .63*800 + .37*0 = 504.

Not to mention in the first case I'm almost guaranteed I will get at least a 45% of the 4000, while in the other case I have no way of knowing I will get the 63% chance of 800.

[Bama Gambler]

No, what makes you think that.Only read the second post. Going to the first:
That second eqn is wrong. You will only have 400 left and then will be forced to play with any hand. So the prob should be .5 and .5; the amounts should be 800+150 (assuming the small blind folds) and 0. The second eqn should read .5*0 + .5*950 = 475.
Uh, how do you figure? If you start with 2000 chips and play for an 800 chip pot, the pot is 400 yours, 400 your opponents. So, you end up with either 1600 or 2400.How did you get 2000 in chips when you just folded AK and left yourself with 1000 and had to immediately post the small blind? Case 1 (AK vs 99) is the current hand. Case 2 (J6 vs T4) is what you are forced to do down the road if you fold the AK.

[FSAme]

No, I won't make that gamble - but I'll gamble that someone else will have a worse hand than a pocket pair in that time!


And you'll have about 400 - 500 chips at that time vs. a coin-flip chance to have 4000 chips and a legit shot at 1st. My rule: when it's down to 3 and you have the opportunity to raise all in and take a pot uncontested or face a coin-flip (at worst) to double up, with the alternative being to wait around with 2 rounds to go before being blinded out, I'm all over it. All-in, everytime - no question.


Your point isn't worth much,

You're entitled to your opinion, so I guess we'll agree to disagree. Good luck.

[Bama Gambler]

My rule: when it's down to 3 and you have the opportunity to raise all in and take a pot uncontested or face a coin-flip (at worst) to double up, with the alternative being to wait around with 2 rounds to go before being blinded out, I'm all over it. All-in, everytime - no question. :notworth: I agree! Funny thing is I need a lot less than AK to come over the top here. I'm all-in with AQ, AJ, possible AT, any pocket pair higher than 88. It's worked so far. Since I've been keeping records I have finished in the top 3 of 15 SNGs. I finished 1st 10 times, 2nd 2 times, and 3rd 3 times.

[Voter]

How did you get 2000 in chips when you just folded AK and left yourself with 1000 and had to immediately post the small blind? Case 1 (AK vs 99) is the current hand. Case 2 (J6 vs T4) is what you are forced to do down the road if you fold the AK.
I thought you were just comparing the two hands, not considering one after the other. COnsidering one after the other, If I call, there's a 55% chance I'll bust out. 1000 chips looks pretty good against that!

[Bama Gambler]

If I call, there's a 55% chance I'll bust out. That 55% is wrong.

[Voter]

If I call, there's a 55% chance I'll bust out. That 55% is wrong.We're specifically talking AK vs 99 at this point. I think 55% is correct.
Funny thing is I need a lot less than AK to come over the top here. I'm all-in with AQ, AJ, possible AT, any pocket pair higher than 88. It's worked so far. Since I've been keeping records I have finished in the top 3 of 15 SNGs. I finished 1st 10 times, 2nd 2 times, and 3rd 3 times.And for MNPoker AK isn't working. Bragging about a short-term run doesn't help the discussion. I was up 45BB in an hour last night - so what?

[Voter]

BTW, don't you guys ever see short stack comebacks in the final 3? Seems pretty common to me, but I don't have any stats on it.

[Bama Gambler]

BTW, don't you guys ever see short stack comebacks in the final 3? Seems pretty common to me, but I don't have any stats on it.It's not that we don't see short stack comebacks, we just don't fold AK when we are short stacked. 1000 when the blinds are 150-300 is definitely short stacked. When folding three rounds will blind me out I'm looking for any decent hand to get my chips in the middle. AK is not just decent is the 4th best possible hand.

[Bama Gambler]

Ok I'm done. I think we have :horse: . I don't think there is any value in discussing this hand anymore.

[FSAme]

BTW, don't you guys ever see short stack comebacks in the final 3? Seems pretty common to me, but I don't have any stats on it.

I have personally (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=24233). I hope you don't think I'm bragging. Still doesn't change my decision here.

[FSAme]

Hey Bama,

Roll Tide!!!!!

:capn:

[Bama Gambler]

Hey Bama,

Roll Tide!!!!!

:capn: :D Great game last night!! UCONN looks tough. I hope we can keep rolling.

[Voter]

BTW, don't you guys ever see short stack comebacks in the final 3? Seems pretty common to me, but I don't have any stats on it.It's not that we don't see short stack comebacks, we just don't fold AK when we are short stacked. 1000 when the blinds are 150-300 is definitely short stacked. When folding three rounds will blind me out I'm looking for any decent hand to get my chips in the middle. AK is not just decent is the 4th best possible hand.
OK, my closing comments:

AK may be the 4th best hand in a full table, but heads up it's a dog to any pair. I never advocated folding to the initial raise, or even calling the initial raise. I agree that AK is a raising hand. I just think there are alternatives to the all-in that have the chance for a nice profit, but still leave a chance for a comeback if things go wrong. That's all.

[Expunge]

I would go all in. either i am a huge favorite 75% (vs Ax or Kx) a slight dog 45% (vs pocket 2-Q) or unlikely but possible a big dog (vs AA or KK) I would assign probs to the scenarios of 49%, 49%, 2%.

next best is just a call if my A or K flops no question i have to get all my money in (by which method i'm not sure), if A or K doesn't flop i have a choice, but likely i'm pushing all in anyways.

the only way i see the 300 more play is if you are trying to represent a monster and are trying to get a call. in which case i can't see him not calling 300 (getting 5:1) this is extremely unlikely unless you have both established yourselves as very strong players (but thats just about impossible to do in a sng)

[Voter]

FWIW, I posted this scenario at another forum, and most people (including the expert) went with the all-in.

Guess I'm the :duh: with AK! Good discussion though.

Now consider this one from last night. Party $10 PL SNG. On the bubble, I'm second stack. Get AKs UTG, bet the pot, button and SB fold, BB (big stack) bets the pot. BB has been getting great cards, so I don't know if she's a good player, or just lucky. Took my whole time to think about it, concluded 'Don't piss with the big stack on the bubble,' and folded. She didn't show, but claimed she had KK.

IMO I played it right - both the raise and the laydown, considering we were one away from the money. Thoughts?

[Bama Gambler]

FWIW, I posted this scenario at another forum, and most people (including the expert) went with the all-in.Which forum? Can you provide a link?

[Bama Gambler]

Now consider this one from last night. Party $10 PL SNG. On the bubble, I'm second stack. Get AKs UTG, bet the pot, button and SB fold, BB (big stack) bets the pot. BB has been getting great cards, so I don't know if she's a good player, or just lucky. Took my whole time to think about it, concluded 'Don't piss with the big stack on the bubble,' and folded. She didn't show, but claimed she had KK.If folding leaves you with a playable stack then I say, yes, folding is correct. Since she re-raised a raiser then that is a strong indication of a pocket pair. In this case you are most likey looking at 45% of winning and could be way behind. There is a chance that she has AK or AQ, but clearly it's not worth your whole stack to find out. If folding left you with less than 5x the BB then I think you should have played it out (unless one player was extremely low).

[11pecans]

I agree with voter.

The point is to win, but you can't win if you don't survive. I would also be happy to move up from 3rd to 2nd and then take my chances on a hot streak. Big slick is not that great at a small table where the pot was raised IMHO. Given the raise they are more likely to have a pair, they may even have a dominating pair like what hapened to voter aa or kk.

I don't think there is a huge difference in ultimate probabilty between all in or not. Some of it is just style. Tin-cup approach sometimes works and sometimes costs you.

[Voter]

FWIW, I posted this scenario at another forum, and most people (including the expert) went with the all-in.Which forum? Can you provide a link?
Sure. Here's a link to that particular thread:
http://www.internettexasholdem.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=2918

And the expert's comment (the expert is Matthew Hilger, author of 'Internet Texas Holdem' and operator of the site):
This is a no brainer. You should go allin here. When it is three-handed raising requirements drop significantly. The big stack could be raising with a wide variety of hands hoping to steal the blinds. There is $1050 in the pot and your stack is $2000. Go allin...if your opponent folds, your stack improves to $3000 which is a good result. If you are called you have an excellent chance of doubling up putting you in great position to win the tournament.

If you run into AA or KK...that is just poker.

Never let it be said that Voter can't admit when he's wr... wro.... uh, wrong. :oops: I've been playing more aggressively in the final three after reading these threads and the Kirill G thread. Last night I played two, went into one with second stack and finished third, other I went in third stack and won. Time will tell...

[Bama Gambler]

HUGE diffence between these two hands. First hand (MNPoker's) chip leader raised first (doesn't have to have a strong hand to be first to raise) and you are already in the money. Second hand (Voter's) chip leader re-raised and there are 4 players left.

[Bama Gambler]

And the expert's comment (the expert is Matthew Hilger, author of 'Internet Texas Holdem' and operator of the site):
This is a no brainer. You should go allin here. When it is three-handed raising requirements drop significantly. The big stack could be raising with a wide variety of hands hoping to steal the blinds. There is $1050 in the pot and your stack is $2000. Go allin...if your opponent folds, your stack improves to $3000 which is a good result. If you are called you have an excellent chance of doubling up putting you in great position to win the tournament.

If you run into AA or KK...that is just poker.

Never let it be said that Voter can't admit when he's wr... wro.... uh, wrong. :oops: I've been playing more aggressively in the final three after reading these threads and the Kirill G thread. Last night I played two, went into one with second stack and finished third, other I went in third stack and won. Time will tell...Isn't this basically (if not exactly) the same thing we were saying? I guess sometimes you need to hear it from someone you respect more.

[Voter]

Yes, the fold still left me slightly in 2nd stack, with small stack close to blinding out (I took out small stack a few hands later when I had pocket 5's and he went all-in with Ax). The call would have essentially committed me to all-in.

[Bama Gambler]

Yes, the fold still left me slightly in 2nd stack, with small stack close to blinding out (I took out small stack a few hands later when I had pocket 5's and he went all-in with Ax). The call would have essentially committed me to all-in.In that case, the AK is an easy fold.

[11pecans]

Isn't this basically (if not exactly) the same thing we were saying? I guess sometimes you need to hear it from someone you respect more.

I think it was articulated a lot better by the expert.

[11pecans]

Yes, the fold still left me slightly in 2nd stack, with small stack close to blinding out (I took out small stack a few hands later when I had pocket 5's and he went all-in with Ax). The call would have essentially committed me to all-in.In that case, the AK is an easy fold.

I don't think there is such thing as an easy fold if you respect the player. They may have nothing and be counting on your simple minded easy fold.

[Bama Gambler]

I think it was articulated a lot better by the expert.Definitely written better than my posts, but Minus790's response was very well written (and very similar to the "expert's") The magnitude of the reward for first easily merits the risk of going for it. This is a monster hand short-handed, you have a chance to win the pot here, and a chance to double up on what will, at worst, be a coin flip. Honestly, I think all in is a no-brainer.

[Voter]

Isn't this basically (if not exactly) the same thing we were saying? I guess sometimes you need to hear it from someone you respect more.
Hey, I admitted I was wrong, you don't have to rub my nose in it! :wink:

I posted the expert quote to show that, yes, he said almost exactly what you said.

Really, though, it was the general agreement among players with a range of playing styles that persuaded me. When players I know to be aggressive say 'all-in,' it could just be a knee-jerk reaction from aggressive players, and I'll keep pressing my case. When less aggressive players also say 'all-in,' I've got to back off and reconsider. That's why I posted it at that site, there's a greater mix of styles, I wanted to see what happened when I posted the scenario without mentioning my own position.

[Bama Gambler]

Yes, the fold still left me slightly in 2nd stack, with small stack close to blinding out (I took out small stack a few hands later when I had pocket 5's and he went all-in with Ax). The call would have essentially committed me to all-in.In that case, the AK is an easy fold.

I don't think there is such thing as an easy fold if you respect the player. They may have nothing and be counting on your simple minded easy fold.You fear her stack more than anything else. Of course, she knows she can pressure you since you have more chips, but she can't eliminate AA, KK, or QQ from your hand. Since you are the 2nd chip leader you can damage her too. I think the way the hand went down you can be very certain you are facing pocket 99-AA, AK, or AQ. If you can't see that, well...

[Bama Gambler]

Hey, I admitted I was wrong, you don't have to rub my nose in it! :wink: :oops:

When players I know to be aggressive say 'all-in,' it could just be a knee-jerk reaction from aggressive players, and I'll keep pressing my case. When less aggressive players also say 'all-in,' I've got to back off and reconsider. That's why I posted it at that site, there's a greater mix of styles, I wanted to see what happened when I posted the scenario without mentioning my own position.Good point! Just out of curiosity what kind of player do you think I am?

[11pecans]

ha ha don't be an azz

the point that it so easy to see is exactly the point - if you are that predictable then the great player can read your moves like a book and get you to lay down a good hand even if they don't have one.

[Voter]

I think it was articulated a lot better by the expert.Definitely written better than my posts, but Minus790's response was very well written (and very similar to the "expert's") The magnitude of the reward for first easily merits the risk of going for it. This is a monster hand short-handed, you have a chance to win the pot here, and a chance to double up on what will, at worst, be a coin flip. Honestly, I think all in is a no-brainer.
It's a good site - the owner is a poker author, there's some full-timers, and a bunch of learners like me. We could always use some new members (hint, hint)!

[Cohete009]

Good point! Just out of curiosity what kind of player do you think I am?


Although you aren't asking me, I say that you Bama are a tight aggressive player.

As for me, you either have to watch, or play against me to find out.....

[11pecans]

Just out of curiosity what kind of player do you think I am?

An arrogant aggressive player. All of the people from Alabama are like that.

[Bama Gambler]

ha ha don't be an azzSorry, this whole thread has read argumentative. My last comment was uncalled for.

the point that it so easy to see is exactly the point - if you are that predictable then the great player can read your moves like a book and get you to lay down a good hand even if they don't have one.the question is how likely is that the chip leader would be willing to risk most of her stack on a read that you will lay down a good hand to her re-raise? I think any good player capable of making that read would take that risk when 4 players are left and one is short. You've already showed strength by raising the chip leader's BB.

[Voter]

Good point! Just out of curiosity what kind of player do you think I am?
Pretty aggressive. So, when you say 'all-in,' that's your natural tendency, so I take it with a grain of salt. When you say 'just call' or 'fold,' it carries a lot of weight, since that's not your natural tendency (IMO).

Likewise when a less aggressive player says 'all-in,' it carries more weight than when he says 'call' or 'fold.'

I think that makes sense.

[Bama Gambler]

Just out of curiosity what kind of player do you think I am?

An arrogant aggressive player. All of the people from Alabama are like that. :rofl: How many players do you know from Alabama? Me and Hoyt? Hoyt is definitely not arrogant (neither am I - at least I don't think I am).

[Bama Gambler]

I think that makes sense.Absolutely. BTW, I don't like to bet all-in, especially when someone has more chips than I do. In multi-table tournaments I like keep track of the number of times I put all my chips at risk. I try to build my stack slowly and only put all my chips in the middle when I'm trapping someone. That doesn't mean I'm not aggressive. I find myself betting the pot on the flop often. I probably bet too often when check to.

[11pecans]

I "grew up" playing poker against a guy from Alabama. I guess he's colored my view.

He always wore a crimson hat with an A and sun glasses. I played against him in LV, New Orleans and Biloxi.

[Bama Gambler]

I "grew up" playing poker against a guy from Alabama. I guess he's colored my view.

He always wore a crimson hat with an A and sun glasses. I played against him in LV, New Orleans and Biloxi.I will occasionally wear a Alabama hat, but most of the time I don't. I never wear sun glasses at the table. I'm usually very quite and don't like to talk to people (I often wear headphones so that people won't talk to me). I don't throw hissyfits (sp?) like Helmulth. And I don't criticize other players (why educate the fish?).