Putting people on hands

[WWSituation]

Is there reason why I should have believed that my opponent had the Ace he claimed to have (and did)?

***** Hand History for Game 507652116 *****
50/100 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 3076810) - Tue Apr 06 22:17:12 EDT 2004
Table Table 11234 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: cirokk (960)
Seat 2: deraldp (2100)
Seat 4: sm3nyk (955)
Seat 6: mrcsox813 (650)
Seat 7: HeyArnold (785)
Seat 8: jervie1 (1065)
Seat 9: vgt19 (1045)
Seat 10: LiquidDreams (440)
vgt19 posts small blind (25)
LiquidDreams posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sm3nyk [ Tc, Kd ]
cirokk folds.
deraldp folds.
sm3nyk calls (50)
mrcsox813 folds.
HeyArnold folds.
jervie1 folds.
vgt19 calls (25)
LiquidDreams checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ac, 4d, 3h ]
vgt19 bets (100)
LiquidDreams folds.
sm3nyk raises (200) to 200
vgt19 calls (100)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kh ]
vgt19 checks.
sm3nyk checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 7h ]
vgt19 checks.
sm3nyk checks.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 550
Board: [ Ac 4d 3h Kh 7h ]
cirokk balance 960, didn't bet (folded)
deraldp balance 2100, didn't bet (folded)
sm3nyk balance 705, lost 250 [ Tc Kd ] [ a pair of kings -- Ac,Kd,Kh,Tc,7h ]
mrcsox813 balance 650, didn't bet (folded)
HeyArnold balance 785, didn't bet (folded)
jervie1 balance 1065, didn't bet (folded)
vgt19 balance 1345, bet 250, collected 550, net +300 [ As 8c ] [ a pair of aces -- As,Ac,Kh,8c,7h ]
LiquidDreams balance 390, lost 50 (folded)

[O. Hannah]

Yes. He called your re-raise which (to me) screams ace or some kind of draw. (He'd probably have pushed you back with another raise if he had 2pr or 3 of a kind)

Since draws were dubious (rainbow flop and str8 is not open ended)....I would expect that he has A-x. Because he didn't re-raise you and then checked on the turn and river...you can probably guess that he thinks YOU have A-y where y>x.

If you are going to put your money in on a naked re-raise like that after the flop and he calls......you either need to hammer him again after the turn and make him think you have A-Q, A-J etc. or just give up (or not try such a weak raise in the first place) on the hand like you did. I wouldn't stick 20% of your stack in there with the intent of giving up when he calls you. I would think that => $400 bet after the turn would have gotten him to fold. You have to think that the K could not have possibly helped his hand.

My only question would be how much of your remaining 750-800 you bet after the turn....maybe all-in but to me that screams bluff more than 400 or so....

[O. Hannah]

On a side note....this is a classic example about how playing something like A-8ns is a tough hand with a full table. You can wind up 2nd best very easily and even when you are winning you might not feel confident enough to fight off bluffs or bet enough to run off the flush & str8 chasers.

[MNBridge]

Yes. He called your re-raise which (to me) screams ace or some kind of draw. (He'd probably have pushed you back with another raise if he had 2pr or 3 of a kind)

Since draws were dubious (rainbow flop and str8 is not open ended)....I would expect that he has A-x. Because he didn't re-raise you and then checked on the turn and river...you can probably guess that he thinks YOU have A-y where y>x.

If you are going to put your money in on a naked re-raise like that after the flop and he calls......you either need to hammer him again after the turn and make him think you have A-Q, A-J etc. or just give up (or not try such a weak raise in the first place) on the hand like you did. I wouldn't stick 20% of your stack in there with the intent of giving up when he calls you. I would think that => $400 bet after the turn would have gotten him to fold. You have to think that the K could not have possibly helped his hand.

My only question would be how much of your remaining 750-800 you bet after the turn....maybe all-in but to me that screams bluff more than 400 or so....

Agree with everything except.

If this is a $50 or less Sit and Go there is no way 90% of the players there lay down an ace if there is one on the board. (Personally I wouldn't have attacked this board in the first place -- no outs if he calls)

[Bama Gambler]

Fold this hand pre-flop. Limping with KTo from middle position when the blinds are high is not a good idea.

[Happy Extinction]

And generally if you play Kx and an A comes on the flop you have to lay down with a bet in front of you. He has the advantage that he is first to act, so he could be bluffing or throwing out a feeler bet, but more likely he has the A. (You have the advantage playing last because you can lay down - you get to see what he has before having to act)

On a tbale with many players, if an A is on the board and you don't have one, just assume that somebody has an A since it is the most played card even with poor kicker.

[vegas]

Fold this hand pre-flop. Limping with KTo from middle position when the blinds are high is not a good idea.

Hmmmmmm. I understand the logic here, but $50 BB is not that high.

[Bama Gambler]

Fold this hand pre-flop. Limping with KTo from middle position when the blinds are high is not a good idea.

Hmmmmmm. I understand the logic here, but $50 BB is not that high.When your stack is 955 it is high. If you limp and everyone folds but the BB, then the pot is 125. Now to steal on the flop you need to bet at least 100. If you are unsuccesful you have just blow (100+50)/955 = 15.71% of your stack with KTo. Factor in the times when you flop a King and lose because your kicker is no good and this is a horrible hand to play pre-flop (especially limp pre-flop).

[O. Hannah]

If this is a $50 or less Sit and Go there is no way 90% of the players there lay down an ace if there is one on the board. (Personally I wouldn't have attacked this board in the first place -- no outs if he calls)

Actually, I totally agree with you. I would prob. fold like Bama mentioned in the first place....and would have folded to his bet after the flop. I guess what I'm saying is that the guy is likely A-(weak kicker) so if you've decided to naked bluff him in the FIRST PLACE...then hammer him some more because you are already out 1/4 of your stack.

Essentially, if I royally $%&*'d myself....I might just say what the heck and "in for a penny in for a pound" He might fold. :D

[Expunge]

Fold this hand pre-flop. Limping with KTo from middle position when the blinds are high is not a good idea.

You've made it to round 3 with 8 people. KT is trash. Only see the flop from the blinds. You can see it from the button if you've got 4-5 limpers in front of you (in which case you're looking to make the nuts, minimum of QJx rainbow on the flop, still might need to fold to a big bet)