Poker: Playing the draw

[Hummer]

$20 SNG with 8 players (home game)
Start with $20 in chips

Blinds are $1/2
7 players left you have about $25 to $30 on the button.
Folds to me I raise to $6 with 7s5s; SB calls, BB calls
Flop is 8s 6s Kc

SB goes all-in for last $11
BB calls immediately (is the chip leader)
I think for a little while...

Would you call $11 with low flush, st (possibly nut st) and st flush draws? If you call and miss would you call the inevitable all-in on the turn? I figure you have 5 outs for the nuts, and an additional 10 outs for a decent shot of winning.

I folded. Here's what the hands looked like. I didn't realize I was such a large favorite. I figured one of them for at least two pair or trips.


Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=265281
pokenum -h ah kd - ad ac - 5s 7s -- 8s 6s kc
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 6s Kc
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Ah 34 3.77 869 96.23 0 0.00 0.038
Ac Ad 344 38.10 559 61.90 0 0.00 0.381
7s 5s 525 58.14 378 41.86 0 0.00 0.581

[Bama Gambler]

Hard to laydown an open ended str flush draw. More often than not you will be the favorite to win the pot.

[douglan]

This is a good example of a hand where you are the favorite even though you are behind after the flop (one player had aces and another flopped a pair of kings). Fifteen outs will give you either a straight, a flush, or the straight flush. If you use the quick rule of thumb for figuring your chances after the flop, that gives you approximately a 60% chance (15 outs times roughly 4% for each out) of making your hand. Even though you are on a draw, I'd probably call. But it's a close call, and a fold is also not a bad play. Interesting hand.

[Hummer]

Hard to laydown an open ended str flush draw. More often than not you will be the favorite to win the pot.

I know it's hard, even harder when you see the next card that gives you the st flush. Would you have called or laid it down? Ignore the fact that this is only a $20 tourney.

Let's change the scenario. You are in a WPT or some other major tournament with an average stack on day 1. Same cards. You now need to decide whether to call the all-in equal to 50% of your stack where the table chip leader has also called. Call or reluctant fold.

If you call, and miss the turn, do you call the all-in?

[Expunge]

Do you absolutely know he has a good made hand? If not here is a place to move all in on him. Heck he may lay it down putting you on a made set or something that has him beat already. If he calls your still a slight favorite. By moving all in you're giving yourself that extra chance to win the pot.

[Bama Gambler]

Do you absolutely know he has a good made hand? If not here is a place to move all in on him. Heck he may lay it down putting you on a made set or something that has him beat already. If he calls your still a slight favorite. By moving all in you're giving yourself that extra chance to win the pot.How is he giving himself an extra chance to win the pot? He basically has to hit to win since he currently has King high and is surely beat by the person already all-in. I think coming over the top here is foolish.

[Hummer]

Do you absolutely know he has a good made hand? If not here is a place to move all in on him. Heck he may lay it down putting you on a made set or something that has him beat already. If he calls your still a slight favorite. By moving all in you're giving yourself that extra chance to win the pot.

The player is fairly tight, but does not always rank hands well. She also would not fold to a reraise. So the question remains, do you call half your stack to see 1 more card? And, if you miss, do you call the all-in to see the river.

[Expunge]

Do you absolutely know he has a good made hand? If not here is a place to move all in on him. Heck he may lay it down putting you on a made set or something that has him beat already. If he calls your still a slight favorite. By moving all in you're giving yourself that extra chance to win the pot.How is he giving himself an extra chance to win the pot? He basically has to hit to win since he currently has King high and is surely beat by the person already all-in. I think coming over the top here is foolish.

:oops: I missed that there is a player all in already so you have to show down vs him regardless.

The question is does the chip leader have a made hand or is he also drawing? If he's drawing he may very well lay down the hand, if he's not he calls you're still the favorite. You have a chance to push out a small pair, or a bigger (non nut) flush draw.
$11 call for $40 pot, you have 15 outs in 47 cards. (If your calling and folding if you miss 15/47 is correct) If you're calling calling you have to look at $20 for a $50 pot)

7 people left i think i'm calling, then if the board doesn't pair i'm probabily calling again, if the board pairs you could be drawing to two outs. Actually gives you a chance that leader might check the turn giving you another free card.

[Expunge]

personally i don't think i bet 20% of my stack preflop with 75s

[Bama Gambler]

personally i don't think i bet 20% of my stack preflop with 75sMe neither.

[douglan]

Two ways to play it.

(1) Fold - if you do not want to risk your tourney on this hand, even though you have very powerful straight, flush, and straight flush draws that would win the hand.

(2) Call to see the turn card (you've got better than 50:50 odds to hit your hand).

I don't think a raise here is a legitimate option. If your assumption is correct that the player would call a re-raise, then why risk everything when you have not made your hand?

I like #2 (one of the few times I think calling is better than a fold or a re-raise), but that's just me.

If you call and no help comes on the turn, then your chances of winning the hand are reduced to about 30%. If your opponent goes all-in at this point, then I would probably decide based on the pot odds calculation, comforted only by the fact that I know that I still have so many outs. But that's a tough spot.

[Hummer]

personally i don't think i bet 20% of my stack preflop with 75sMe neither.

Oh, I agree whole-heartedly. But, if you read I was on a steal preflop. It's not often you run into AA and AK in the blinds. If they were better players, they would have reraised.

[Bama Gambler]

If they were better players, they would have reraised.Yes, I wonder why they didn't re-raise.

[T-roy Boy]

You raised right? Looks like you were trying to steal the blinds. But against the chip leader? Horrible decision. In any case, you got just about the best possible hand you could ask for with that flop - I'd a called the all-in. You kinda havta now. I wouldn't have raised with that hand in the first place. MAYBE limp - wait - no, not even limp. Let the small and big blinds fight it out.

[douglan]

I can understand (maybe) why the AK didn't re-raise (big bet already into him - maybe he felt all he could do was call). But the AA guy should have re-raised in a heartbeat. Unless he thought having Aces in the BB is the "wrong" place to be in NL...LOL...a very bad play on that guy's part.

[Hummer]

You raised right? Looks like you were trying to steal the blinds. But against the chip leader? Horrible decision. In any case, you got just about the best possible hand you could ask for with that flop - I'd a called the all-in. You kinda havta now. I wouldn't have raised with that hand in the first place. MAYBE limp - wait - no, not even limp. Let the small and big blinds fight it out.

You are correct, I was on a steal. Both of these players were tight passive. They folded to most raises and only called with monsters (instead of reraising). I saw an opportunity and attempted a steal. I should also mention that they almost always bet when they hit the flop, and check if they miss. I had stolen once before, and got called by BB once. In the latter they folded to a pot size bet on the turn.

So ignore the preflop play for now. There is nothing wrong with a steal play or even an outright bluff (on the right opponent).