Ghost Forum: Suspect Lists

[Gandalf]

Lists received before RedSoxFan and 42 were slain:

Here is how my suspect list shapes up at the moment, from most likely EC to least likely EC.

1) Rocky. Reasons for guilt as outlined in my public statement.
2) werewolf. Has made a couple too many posts trying to appear innocent / clueless.
3) Anonymouse. Very slight indication of guilt due to a couple of posts making fun of strategy discussions. Not much to go on, but that's all I've noticed about him.
4) USCanuck. No particular reason to believe he's either innocent or guilty.
5) All Clear -- ditto
6) CubedBee -- ditto
7) Plain M&M -- ditto
8. Macroman -- ditto
9) Voter. I think he has some slight indication of innocence. Can't remember specifically what made me think this -- more of an impression at the moment, though I may dig back through his posts.
10) RedSoxFan. Tend to think he's innocent due to his early stapler vote. If he were EC, I do not think he would have figured out to vote this quickly.
11) 42. Main reason to believe his innocence is that he is very active and has been on board helping contribute to good strategy consistently. I may just be gullible....
12) Avi. Tend to think he's innocent for the reason I PM'd earlier -- his exchange at the bottom of page 16, IIRC. Also he's clearly not a nutjob but has a good head on his shoulders. Someone I would like to see alive at the end, if we become diminished to small numbers.
13) 4sigma. The only person I am certain is innocent. The main evidence in my favor to the external observer would be the PM I sent to Cho Da just before his death (which Cho Da then posted), and my continual efforts to organize good strategy on the part of the students. EC would have a strong incentive to do neither of these things.

1. CubedBee
2. RedSoxFan
3. Macroman
4. 4sigma
5. All Clear (JT's stapler vote)
6. plain M&M
7. Avi
8. 42
9. USCanuck
10. Anonymouse
11. werewolf
12. Rocky
13. Voter

Since I'm getting little to no support for my public disclosure idea, here's my list of most likely guilty to most likely innocent.

4sigma
All Clear
Avi
42
RedSoxFan
Voter
Anonymouse
plain M&M
Macroman
Werewolf
CubedBee
USCanuck
Rocky

Remaining players in order of my suspician of them:

1. RSF
2. 4sigma
3. Rocky
4. CubedBee
5. All Clear
6. Anonymouse
7. Werewolf: 2
8. Plain M&M: 2
9. Voter
10. USCanuck: 1
11. 42
12. Traina: 0
13. Avi: 0
14 me - I know I'm not the EC

Below 6. Anonymouse all are pretty much equal level of suspician, so far anyway. I hope I got all the right people in here. thanks very much for continuing to help us out.

Firstly, I would hope that those who are following this game closer than me are also contacting you, and if you want, I'll ask in the forum again for people to be pm'ing you with this stuff. In any case, I my thoughts are that after the first and second of these games, I think it is highly unlikely that an EC member would be going over good strategies for students in the forum, over and over again. Gandalf did that in the first game, and while he was EC and survived, there were tons of people suggesting him. 42 did that in the second game, and was lynched.

Therefore, I would reccomend protecting the vocal ones that seem to be giving us good ideas- 42, EK, 4sigma immediatly come to mind. I dont think an EC member would be so vocal with good ideas like that. In contrast, Voter talked a lot in the begining, and made points that would have made it harder for us to get the right person/people. Then once he was suspected, he started talking a lot less. I suggest "Voter". Also, EK brought up the thing with RSF which concerns me as well. I therefore suggest "RSF". In addition, though I can't do this, not being on the RF as much as many others (I think I have the lowest post count of the remaining people), if someone is able to show that one person posts differently, or with different types of posts on this thread, as opposed to other threads where he/she writes, I would suggest them, as it shows that this poster may be thinking too much, trying to make sure he/she is not suspected. Thanks for your help.

Hagbard, I sent the above pm yesterday (Saturday) when I made my last post in the forum, and then after noticing you had not read it yet, I unsent it and am adding this on- 4sigma's post made me highly suspect Rocky as well, not only because of the obvious reasons, but also because Rocky is posting far more now, after 4sigma brought up his name- I don't remember reading much from him before, and now that his name comes up, every third post appears to be from him, as if Rocky stayed quiet without worry before his name was mentioned, and now is on a scramble to get attention off of him before others make reccomendations.

HC, it took me three hours to review the thread (or at least the posts by the remaining players!), but I did it. Here is how I would rank the remaining players, from most likely to be EC to least likely to be EC:

1. werewolf
2. Avi
3. Anonymouse
4. All Clear
5. USCanuck
6. CubedBee
7. Rocky [before the ghosts' decision, 42 moved Rocky up to #4 - Gandalf]
8. RedSoxFan
9. Voter
10. plain M&M
11. Macroman
12. 4sigma

I know Voter and RedSoxFan have been getting a lot of votes, but I don't suspect them much. I think Voter is just being himself, and I think the whole Jables/RedSoxFan connection was just too blatent. (Of course, maybe that was the idea - the EC knew we would see it as being too blatent, and would dismiss it. But even still, it would be a risky strategy, and I think the EC is extremely clever.)

1. Werewolf – "whose turn is it?" was a ploy
2. Anonymouse – not helpful; possible Jables interaction in round one
3. CubedBee – unnaturally quiet
4. AllClear – no strong feelings either way, posts strike me as slightly more suspicious than Plain M&M and USCanuck
5. Plain m&m - no strong feelings either way
6. US Canuck – no strong feelings either way
7. RedSoxFan – No real evidence against him was ever presented. Maybe 4sigma’s stapler vote argument has some merit. He threatened to withdraw if PMs were made public (possibly a great ploy?)
8. Rocky – Bad strategy advice, but I don’t think an EC would be so obvious about it
9. Macroman – his willingness to become a ghost in the first round
10. Voter – too much of a loose cannon to be EC
11. 42 – seems very like himself; seems to be siding with students; his PMs to ghosts including strategies for protecting people by deception
12. 4sigma – interest in strategy; upset that we hit duodenum; his list seemed well-reasoned (and in particular did not seem to make even weak cases against the people I’m most sure are students)
13. Avi – Assault on Voter (an EC would not have gone to such effort against one particular student); general interest in strategy

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Updated
1. CubedBee
2. werewolf
3. Rocky
4. Anonymouse
5. All Clear
6. plain M&M
7. USCanuck
8. Avi
9. Macroman
10. 4sigma
11. Voter

[RedSoxFan]

Ok, so why exactly was I picked to be slain? I don't see myself too high up on any of the lists.

FWIW this is a PM I sent to HC 2-3 hours before he made his selection. Don't know why you didn't post it above, nor do I know if this influenced his decision.

I've been trying to keep up with the EC game but there are so many posts sometimes anyway I think I'm supposed to PM you with who I think is on the EC.

I haven't been paying attention as much as some of the others as to reasons to pick one person or another. For example, someone came up with a good case against Rocky. (why hasn't anyone voted in orange for Rocky yet? It makes me think that one of those who hasn't voted is on the EC, since there's no way for that person to win a stapler. On the other hand, I think the EC person has to have voted already, otherwise it would be too obvious.

I think Voter has acted the most suspicious. But I don't know if that is his character or not.

Here's an idea, given that the remaining EC member hasn't done anything obvious to rouse suspicion, maybe this person is an experienced RF poster, who has enough experience posting that he can fake things easily, that he knows what would and wouldn't be considered suspicious behavior, etc. So maybe someone like 42? (It seems like we're not at all suspicious of those people who are spending the most time doing analysis - I think we should be! Just because they post a lot about strategy doesn't mean they're an innocent student!)

I almost think it might be better to just make random selections. We have the potential to out-think ourselves with this stuff.

In summary, I know the EC isn't me (of course nothing I can say can convince you of that for sure, but you have to trust me on it), and I'm most suspicious of Voter, but I don't think anyone can be certain that anyone isn't on the EC.

Thanks for helping us out as the ghost!

RSF

[Gandalf]

Without this private forum, it was difficult to get all info into everyone's hands. I don't think I saw that PM from you to Hagbard, but I had told Hagbard my availability that morning was limited.

Of course you were high on some lists: like #1 on Macroman's; #2 on Ebenezer Kohl's; #5 on Rocky's is pretty high. And you weren't in the lowest 3 from anyone. Maybe you weren't the most likely EC (and were exactly in the middle on my list), you were a reasonable choice.

Originally I had only my list, 4sigma's and 42's. Based on those, it seemed obvious to hit Werewolf, and you were average or unlikely to be EC on all. Then Hagbard sent me the other lists, which had a rather different picture.

Hagbard and EK thought you were our best choice. I said the choice was OK with me. (As opposed to the duodenum hit, where it was my recommendation, with Hagbard going along, and I suppose EK as well.)

[Asynchronous]

My current list:

1. CubedBee - As mentioned earlier, the EC is paying close attention (based on their kills) and CubedBee fits the bill - he monitors the thread like crazy, but doesn't post too much
2. Werewolf - agree with comments that he's trying too hard to seem like he's not paying attention.
3. Rocky - 4Sigma's analysis has merit.
4. Anonymouse - Next 3 are just gut feelings, comparing posting behavior to behavior in this thread
5. Macroman
6. Avi
7. All Clear - Not active enough
8. USCanuck - Not active enough
9. Voter - Doesn't fit the profile
10. 4sigma - Quality of his posts here has persuaded me that he's a student (also, see below)
11. plain M&M - AWOL


Also, given the EC's behaviour of hitting the strategic posters, I think the EC will hit 4sigma this round. I think this should be part of our lynching strategy (determine who the EC is likely to hit, and save our lynching for someone else).

[Hagbard Celine]

RSF,

You were hit because you attracted an incredible amount of heat in a couple of earlier rounds. I spared you then because I wanted the EC to think you were slayer. It didn't work.

You were still high on a couple of lists this last round, most notably EK, and I decided it was time so I could put my experiment to rest (plus, I though you were guilty... :oops: ).

[J.T.]

Out of all the lists I received, which I think were a good portion, (except Gandalf), 42's struck me as the most odd. He had an entirely different list than everyone else. This made me think 2 things: either he wasn't innocent, or he was seeing things differently.

42, come out and talk.....I'm curious as to your thinking.

So, in that light, I have started to think more towards 42's thinking, but I still don't know why he's thinking that way.

I am a big fan of Werewolf or CubedBee right now. Either have done too many suspicious things lately.

[Maine-iac]

Cubed Bee is suspicious, definitely. Werewolf isn't on my radar, though I suppose that could be cleverly lying low.

[42]

Out of all the lists I received, which I think were a good portion, (except Gandalf), 42's struck me as the most odd. He had an entirely different list than everyone else. This made me think 2 things: either he wasn't innocent, or he was seeing things differently.

:-? :-? Are you sure you're looking at MY list? Here's a more concise view of the lists Gandalf provided:

Name………… .4Sigma. .Kohlx. .Rocky. Macro Forty2 Gandalf ...Avg
AllClear………. …..5….. …..5….. …..2….. …..5….. …..5….. …..4….. ..4.33
Anonymouse …..3….. ….10…. …..7….. …..6….. …..3….. …..2….. ..5.17
CubedBee….. …..6….. …..1….. ….11…. …..4….. …..7….. …..3….. ..5.33
Werewolf……. …..2….. ….11…. ….10…. …..7….. …..1….. …..1….. ..5.33
RedSoxFan.. ….10…. …..2….. …..5….. …..1….. …..8….. …..7….. ..5.50
Rocky………….. …..1….. ….12…. ….13…. …..3….. …..4….. …..8….. ..6.83
4Sigma……… ….13…. …..4….. …..1….. …..2….. ….12…. ….12…. ..7.33
PlainM&M…… …..7….. …..6….. …..8….. …..8….. ….10…. …..5….. ..7.33
USCanuck….. …..4….. …..9….. ….12…. ….10…. …..6….. …..6….. ..7.83
Avi…………….. ….12…. …..7….. …..3….. ….12…. …..2….. ….13…. ..8.17
Macroman…. …..8….. …..3….. …..9….. ….13…. ….11…. …..9….. ..8.83
Voter…………. …..9….. ….13…. …..6….. …..9….. …..9….. ….10…. ..9.33
FortyTwo…… ….11…. …..8….. …..4….. ….11…. ….13…. ….11…. ..9.67


Being an anal-retentive actuary, I of course calculated the sum of the differences between each pair of players. The three lowest scores (i.e., the three pairs of players who had the closest guesses to each other): 4sigma vs. Gandalf, Gandalf vs. 42, 42 vs. 4sigma. Our picks are almost identical, except for my ranking of Avi. I originally thought he was innocent, but I'm starting to get a gut feeling that he's not. He has posted a lot, but he hasn't really gotten into it much, other than pointing the finger at Voter. What really surprised me was that he didn't say a word when I suggested his name (with no reason given). He's been the biggest instigator in trying to get me to come back to the RF for months now, and now that I'm back, I vote to have him lynched, and he doesn't even comment on it? That seemed odd.

[42]

As for why I was executed by the EC, look at where I ranked - dead last! This time, people thought I was innocent, and the EC knew it, so they whacked me.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Rank Average Kohl Gandalf 42 Asynchronous 4sigma Macroman Rocky Participants
1 3.00 1 7 4 3 1 2 Rocky
2 3.14 2 1 1 2 2 6 8 werewolf
3 3.71 4 2 3 4 3 5 5 Anonymouse
4 4.57 3 3 7 1 6 3 9 CubedBee
5 4.57 5 4 5 7 5 4 2 All Clear
6 7.14 7 6 6 8 4 9 10 USCanuck
7 7.14 8 11 2 6 10 10 3 Avi
8 7.17 10 10 11 10 1 1 4sigma
9 7.29 6 5 9 11 7 7 6 plain M&M
10 7.83 9 8 10 5 8 7 Macroman
11 8.29 11 9 8 9 9 8 4 Voter

I don't count a last place rank from students. Notice the big gap between AllClear and USCanuck. I moved Rocky to number one in mine because his ranking reflect the opposite of norm.

Removing Rocky as not credible yields:

Rank Average Kohl Gandalf 42 Asynchronous 4sigma Macroman Rocky Participants
1 2.33 2 1 1 2 2 6 werewolf
2 3.00 1 7 4 3 1 2 Rocky
3 3.50 4 2 3 4 3 5 Anonymouse
4 3.83 3 3 7 1 6 3 CubedBee
5 5.00 5 4 5 7 5 4 All Clear
6 6.67 7 6 6 8 4 9 USCanuck
7 7.50 6 5 9 11 7 7 plain M&M
8 7.83 8 11 2 6 10 10 Avi
9 8.00 9 8 10 5 8 Macroman
10 8.40 10 10 11 10 1 4sigma
11 9.00 11 9 8 9 9 8 Voter

If Rocky is ever a choice, I think Hagbard Celine should put in "Jables and Rocky" in orange to win the stapler if correct.

[Hagbard Celine]

Jables and Rocky hasn't been chosen yet?

I'm allowed to vote in orange?

Yes I'm an idiot. Humor me.

[Cho Da]

I don't recall seeing any reason you couldn't vote in orange.

My top three uspects are Rocky, Werewolf and 4sigma in that order.

Rocky and Werewolf for much the same reasons already mentioned. I am not convinced that 4sigma's zeal is not a front. A strategy like his provides very good cover, especially since it has even the ghosts convinced. Every time I tweak him (either with voting for him in orange, or suggesting him in red) he was very quick to deny being EC.

I haven't seen convincing evidence anywhere else, though Rocky's list feels very suspicious.

[J.T.]

yes you are able to vote....go ahead (and yes in orange).

It's the exam commitee game. Over 65 pages last time I checked. I haevn't been keeping very current with it. I can see where your coming from with thinking that bumpers should provide reasons for their bump if its not immediately obvious.

This was posted in the Bible Thread in NAT.

Curious that he's not keeping up with it...and admits it.

[42]

I moved Rocky to number one in mine because his ranking reflect the opposite of norm.
Yes, I noticed that in my anal-retentive actuarial analysis. (Is "anal-retentive actuarial" redundent? :wink: ) Of course, yours were next most opposite of norm, EEK. :wink:

[42]

I am not convinced that 4sigma's zeal is not a front. A strategy like his provides very good cover, especially since it has even the ghosts convinced. I ranked 4sigma at the absolute bottom of my list. And as much as I hate to agree with anything ChoDa says :wink: , I'm beginning to think the same way. If I were EC, I would probably play the same way I play now as a student. I would look for tiny ways to give the students the advantage, knowing that the EC always has a huge advantage. Any little advantage that I give away to the students would be more than offset by what I would gain by making myself look so helpful and innocent.

[Gandalf]

I moved Rocky to number one in mine because his ranking reflect the opposite of norm.
Per 4sigma: EC is not a nutjob. I keep Rocky about average, or slightly to student end. But I will not resist a movement to hit him.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Including JT and Cho Da, Werewolf is top two on every ghost's list. Anyone want to defend him?

[Asynchronous]

yes you are able to vote....go ahead (and yes in orange).

It's the exam commitee game. Over 65 pages last time I checked. I haevn't been keeping very current with it. I can see where your coming from with thinking that bumpers should provide reasons for their bump if its not immediately obvious.

This was posted in the Bible Thread in NAT.

Curious that he's not keeping up with it...and admits it.

Curious, based on his posting behavior. He has posted a comment or vote in the thread on April 14, 9, 8, 7, and 6th. He made no posts in any forum between April 10-13 (Saturday - Tuesday over Easter weekend). Therefore, it would appear that it is a regular staple in his reading regimen.

[Gandalf]

I have revised my suspect list in light of data since I last compiled this list. Changes in bold

Note: I would like the record to reflect that the last 2 innocent people killed (RSF, 42) were 2 of the 3 people on my list (besides myself) that I felt had shown the strongest evidence of innocence. Clearly my ranking list therefore has a strong positive correlation with who is actually innocent, and thus should be given additional weight. :)

My rankings, from most likely EC to least likely EC:

1) Rocky. Reasons for guilt as outlined in my public statement.
2) werewolf. Has made a couple too many posts trying to appear innocent / clueless.
3) USCanuck. No particular reason to believe he's either innocent or guilty.
4) All Clear -- ditto
5) CubedBee -- ditto
6) Macroman -- ditto
7) Plain M&M -- ditto, except slight evidence of his innocence due to his recent posting absence. I hope he shows up again soon, as it will be trouble if we have inactive players alive at the end. Still, he has been somewhat active in the past and hopefully he is just on vacation and will become active upon his return.
8 ) Voter. I think the pattern of killings by EC since the death of Jables indicate a calculated attempt to kill off vocal people that aren't nutjobs. Cho Da, Gandalf, Asynch, J.T., 42. This strategy would be less likely to be implemented by a nutjob. Therefore I think Voter is probably innocent, though the evidence is not entirely compelling.
9) Anonymouse. Anonymouse has moved down my EC suspect list due to his posts late Thursday, asking to have RSF lynched. It is, of course, impossible that EC could be this clueless. Admittedly, EC could well attempt to appear clueless as a diversion. But I don't think that they would go so overboard as to appear so utterly rampantly clueless as he did in his post beseeching us to lynch RSF. If he is faking his cluelessness here, he desesrves to win for the incredible style with which he has done so. Anonymouse also hereby moves up my nutjob list, which I consider evidence of innocence as given in my discussion under Voter.
10) Avi. Tend to think he's innocent for the reason I PM'd earlier -- his exchange at the bottom of page 16, IIRC. Also he's clearly not a nutjob but has a good head on his shoulders. Someone I would like to see alive at the end, if we become diminished to small numbers.
11) 4sigma. The only person I am certain is innocent. Evidence as given in my earlier PM of what I have done which I feel demonstrates my innocence.

I reserve the right to submit a revised list as events warrant. :)

This post is copied to Gandalf and Hagbard. I suppose I expect Gandalf to post it on the forum, but I know Hagbard is making the lynching decision early Friday morning and want to make sure he has this data.

[Gandalf]

I'm not sure whether I buy the "Anonymouse = nutjob" idea, but attacking someone already dead is bizarre.

Note that he alerted us to the Plain M&M problem, which the EC (if they were aware of at all), would have hoped we weren't. If he were EC, I think he would have left it as pointing out M&M's absence suggests innocence.

That reinforces my belief he is not EC.

[42]

I agree with 4sigma. This one was just over the top. You have to be totally clueless or very, very clever to try that. OTOH, I think the remaining EC is very, very clever! He/she/it has made some very smart choices. I expect to see 4sigma joining us in the afterworld very soon. :cry:

[Cho Da]

The recent stapler bit has me thinking Rocky. I sense a tinge of desperation in his response to 4σ.

[RedSoxFan]

The recent stapler bit has me thinking Rocky. I sense a tinge of desperation in his response to 4σ.

What does everyone think about this stapler betting? Do we think that anyone willing to bet is not EC? Do we think that someone who is EC would either a) be willing to lose a few staplers just to try to win the thing, or b) renig on the bet once he is found out?

[Gandalf]

I don't think there are any conclusions to be drawn from the stapler betting. If I were EC, lying of course about my status, I wouldn't hesitate to bet a stapler I had no intention of delivering.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

If the EC wasn't honest is saying they are EC, then why should they be honest in delivering a stapler? I would lie if I were EC (and a student). Deception is a part of the game.

[Asynchronous]

It may be that the EC knows that PlainM&M is gone and will never join the pact. Therefore, he can either stay out, knowing it will come down to the two of them (though it would be fairly clear at that point), or join in, and know that plain M&M's absense prevents the pact from ever coming to fruit.

[4sigma]

It appears that I owe a debt of gratitude to those who helped preveny my lynching....
...Therefore, I would reccomend protecting the vocal ones that seem to be giving us good ideas- 42, EK, 4sigma immediatly come to mind. I dont think an EC member would be so vocal with good ideas like that. :bighug:


...
12. 4sigma

and elsewhere wrote:
It may also help us to protect those we think are innocent in the later rounds. (For example, if we think 4sigma is innocent, and there are only two players who have him high on their list, we would want to make sure it didn't come down to 4sigma and these two players in the final 3.) Therefore, anything we can do to get more living players to send us their rankings should help us.
:bighug:


Least likely to be EC:
Voter - I have inside information on this one!
4sigma - all his whining about prolonging debate doesn't seem EC-ish Whining? whining?? Well, I admit to being a bit longwinded about it. Thanks for you vote of innocence. :bighug:


... 12. 4sigma – interest in strategy; upset that we hit duodenum; his list seemed well-reasoned (and in particular did not seem to make even weak cases against the people I’m most sure are students).
[Quoted from another thread....] At the moment, I am strongly of the opinion 4sigma is not EC. It's a hell of an impersonation of an interested student if he is. :bighug:

My current list:
...
10. 4sigma - Quality of his posts here has persuaded me that he's a student (also, see below)
11. plain M&M - AWOL
:bighug:

I'm pretty sold on 4 sig's innocence. 4 sig and Voter.

If I had a list, I'd rank them at the bottom. :bighug:

By the way, I saw someone mention that they think 4-sigma is likely to be executed by the EC soon because he's a vocal strategist who we feel is innocent. Makes sense, HOWEVER, wouldn't we particularly benefit from 4-sigma being slain since he'd be able to communicate as a ghost AND in the normal thread? It'd be a lot better for us if 4-sigma could post here directly than him having to go through Gandalf. I was quite content to send my information via Gandalf, thank you very much. :D Still, I appreciate that you would have liked my help sooner, and the inference that I am therefore not EC. :bighug:

Here is how my suspect list shapes up at the moment, from most likely EC to least likely EC.

1) Rocky. Reasons for guilt as outlined in my public statement.
2) werewolf. Has made a couple too many posts trying to appear innocent / clueless.
3) Anonymouse. Very slight indication of guilt due to a couple of posts making fun of strategy discussions. Not much to go on, but that's all I've noticed about him.
4) USCanuck. No particular reason to believe he's either innocent or guilty.
5) All Clear -- ditto
6) CubedBee -- ditto
7) Plain M&M -- ditto
8. Macroman -- ditto
9) Voter. I think he has some slight indication of innocence. Can't remember specifically what made me think this -- more of an impression at the moment, though I may dig back through his posts.
10) RedSoxFan. Tend to think he's innocent due to his early stapler vote. If he were EC, I do not think he would have figured out to vote this quickly.
11) 42. Main reason to believe his innocence is that he is very active and has been on board helping contribute to good strategy consistently. I may just be gullible....
12) Avi. Tend to think he's innocent for the reason I PM'd earlier -- his exchange at the bottom of page 16, IIRC. Also he's clearly not a nutjob but has a good head on his shoulders. Someone I would like to see alive at the end, if we become diminished to small numbers.
13) 4sigma. The only person I am certain is innocent. The main evidence in my favor to the external observer would be the PM I sent to Cho Da just before his death (which Cho Da then posted), and my continual efforts to organize good strategy on the part of the students. EC would have a strong incentive to do neither of these things.

Since I'm getting little to no support for my public disclosure idea, here's my list of most likely guilty to most likely innocent.

4sigma
All Clear
Avi
42
RedSoxFan
Voter
Anonymouse
plain M&M
Macroman
Werewolf
CubedBee
USCanuck
Rocky

Wow. Talk about "negatively correlated." We have nobody in common in the bottom half of our lists and only All Clear in common in the top half.

Removing Rocky as not credible yields: .... :lol:


Remaining players in order of my suspician of them:

1. RSF
2. 4sigma
...
Just curious what motivated my high ranking on your list....


My top three uspects are Rocky, Werewolf and 4sigma in that order.

Rocky and Werewolf for much the same reasons already mentioned. I am not convinced that 4sigma's zeal is not a front. A strategy like his provides very good cover, especially since it has even the ghosts convinced. Every time I tweak him (either with voting for him in orange, or suggesting him in red) he was very quick to deny being EC.... Agreed that the zealot strategy would be an excellent front. But my PM to you before your death? You must think I'm really stupid or really really clever. I'm not sure I want to know which. My response to your tweaking was just my own tweaking of your tweaking.

I ranked 4sigma at the absolute bottom of my list. And as much as I hate to agree with anything ChoDa says, I'm beginning to think the same way. If I were EC, I would probably play the same way I play now as a student. I would look for tiny ways to give the students the advantage, knowing that the EC always has a huge advantage. Any little advantage that I give away to the students would be more than offset by what I would gain by making myself look so helpful and innocent. Do I have to take back that big hug? Oh, the slings and arrows that one takes for being helpful.... :shake:

[42]

Come on - it was a compliment! I was saying that you were clever enough to pull off being EC while appearing to be the least likely to be EC. Now where's that hug? :wink:

[Macroman]

...

Remaining players in order of my suspician of them:

1. RSF
2. 4sigma
...


Just curious what motivated my high ranking on your list....


I thought your arguments and vendettas might be a front. I really had very little idea though, but also did have B^3 fairly high.

[Rocky]

Here is how my suspect list shapes up at the moment, from most likely EC to least likely EC.

1) Rocky. Reasons for guilt as outlined in my public statement.
2) werewolf. Has made a couple too many posts trying to appear innocent / clueless.
3) Anonymouse. Very slight indication of guilt due to a couple of posts making fun of strategy discussions. Not much to go on, but that's all I've noticed about him.
4) USCanuck. No particular reason to believe he's either innocent or guilty.
5) All Clear -- ditto
6) CubedBee -- ditto
7) Plain M&M -- ditto
8. Macroman -- ditto
9) Voter. I think he has some slight indication of innocence. Can't remember specifically what made me think this -- more of an impression at the moment, though I may dig back through his posts.
10) RedSoxFan. Tend to think he's innocent due to his early stapler vote. If he were EC, I do not think he would have figured out to vote this quickly.
11) 42. Main reason to believe his innocence is that he is very active and has been on board helping contribute to good strategy consistently. I may just be gullible....
12) Avi. Tend to think he's innocent for the reason I PM'd earlier -- his exchange at the bottom of page 16, IIRC. Also he's clearly not a nutjob but has a good head on his shoulders. Someone I would like to see alive at the end, if we become diminished to small numbers.
13) 4sigma. The only person I am certain is innocent. The main evidence in my favor to the external observer would be the PM I sent to Cho Da just before his death (which Cho Da then posted), and my continual efforts to organize good strategy on the part of the students. EC would have a strong incentive to do neither of these things.

Since I'm getting little to no support for my public disclosure idea, here's my list of most likely guilty to most likely innocent.

4sigma
All Clear
Avi
42
RedSoxFan
Voter
Anonymouse
plain M&M
Macroman
Werewolf
CubedBee
USCanuck
Rocky

Wow. Talk about "negatively correlated." We have nobody in common in the bottom half of our lists and only All Clear in common in the top half.

I was trying to cancel you out :wink:

Removing Rocky as not credible yields: .... :lol:

Hey!!! :duh:

I'll admit, my "strategy" boiled down to "get 4sigma lynched because he's gotta be EC"...any rationalization was thrown out the window...BTW, like the EC choices, my lists were randomly generated...except the first and last name on each list. :D

[4sigma]

Since you were generating the choices randomly and your top pick had no merit, it was very insightful of EK to remove your list as not credible, eh?

EK, I am duly impressed. You're going to make an incredible actuary. :D

[Rocky]

Since you were generating the choices randomly and your top pick had no merit, it was very insightful of EK to remove your list as not credible, eh?

Finally, you get my point. :D
Also, note that I didn't give any reasons..."Excel picked their number" didn't seem incriminating enough.

quick, edit your post so people won't see that we agree on something :argue: :wink:

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Since you were generating the choices randomly and your top pick had no merit, it was very insightful of EK to remove your list as not credible, eh?

EK, I am duly impressed. You're going to make an incredible actuary. :D
Thanks man! :D