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Wigmeister General
05-12-2004, 05:20 PM
For Avi's sake

Avi
05-12-2004, 05:28 PM
:soap:
:wall:

My scores range from the wildly optimistic near 80, to the wildly pessimistic 40, to the somewhat realistic 55-60. SO I HAVE NO CLUE!!!

:wall:

Wigmeister General
05-13-2004, 12:12 PM
Avi,

Here's a rule of thumb.

If you seriously answered 90% or more of the points, multiply the number of points attempted by 75%.

If you seriously answered 80-89% of the points, multiply the number of points attempted by 72.5%

If you seriously answered 70-79% of the points, multiply the number of points attempted by 67.5%.

If you seriously answered fewer than 70% of the points, start studying again.

Avi
05-13-2004, 12:41 PM
According to your method, I should expect 74.25 points, not happening, my friend. Although I seriously answered every question, and did not blind guess on any and left no points on the tables. Even the MC's I only guessed if I narrowed the answer down to one of two, having a net expected gain of .25 points, and answered all 17 (getting 4 wrong). Nevertheless, I still feel that getting 75% of the free responses is just not happenning; 50% is more likely which puts me at 53.5, or bubble city.

/sigh

I cannot WAIT until this decade-long hazing process is over :)

horsePower
05-13-2004, 01:00 PM
Avi, Mate I think you are being too harsh on yourself - you seem like a smart lad, 50% is just too low - if you did answer all questions seriously I think 75% is a very reasonable number.

Avi
05-13-2004, 01:14 PM
Thankee, horsepower, but what I know about myself is that I have no primary company experience and a grand total of about 20 months in the actuarial field. So for Ratemaking and Ins. Ops, I'm at a distinct disadvantage compared to people who have been doing auto filings and WC plans for 3 - 4 years.

OTOH, the playing field will level a bit now for part 6, as I do have the aforementioned 1.5 years in reinsurance :dsmile:

And yes, I'm very hard on myself - I need to be. if I wasn't I would lose any opportunity for success.

;)

islas_del_maiz
05-13-2004, 01:57 PM
You can do something like:
-estimate your score,
-then apply a foggy memory allowance,
-then apply an adverse grading deviation factor,
-then apply a personal optimism/pessimism factor,
-then apply an overall opt/pes index of all score-estimators,
-then apply a part 5 or whatever part classification relativity
-then credibility weight this revised estimate with two completements, one is your past performances on other exams, the other is your subjective judgements about the difficulty of this test relative to previous tears' tests multiplied by your performance on those tests during studying
-and finally apply an off-balance factor
to arrive at the final estimate :-)

Avi
05-13-2004, 02:14 PM
You can do something like:
-estimate your score,
-then apply a foggy memory allowance,
-then apply an adverse grading deviation factor,
-then apply a personal optimism/pessimism factor,
-then apply an overall opt/pes index of all score-estimators,
-then apply a part 5 or whatever part classification relativity
-then credibility weight this revised estimate with two completements, one is your past performances on other exams, the other is your subjective judgements about the difficulty of this test relative to previous tears' tests multiplied by your performance on those tests during studying
-and finally apply an off-balance factor
to arrive at the final estimate :-)52.798, still on the bubble.

;)

islas_del_maiz
05-13-2004, 02:21 PM
Avi, now you need to use the above process to estimate again your current estimate. Iterate until it coverges. :)

Avi
05-13-2004, 02:36 PM
I was thinking of taking the individual values of each iterationand applying maximum likelihood to fit a 4 parameter generalized beta to the data, and then taking the 72.4 pecentile as an indicator of the inverse cubic spline of the expected score.

Brad Gile
05-14-2004, 11:51 PM
I was thinking of taking the individual values of each iterationand applying maximum likelihood to fit a 4 parameter generalized beta to the data, and then taking the 72.4 pecentile as an indicator of the inverse cubic spline of the expected score.

After you have done that, Avi, do the following:
1. Get yourself comfortable.
2. Have several healthy portions of your favorite beverage.
3. Recalculate that result in your head.

The result should then be golden. :)

Brad

beh_1970
05-15-2004, 05:42 PM
Thankee, horsepower, but what I know about myself is that I have no primary company experience and a grand total of about 20 months in the actuarial field. So for Ratemaking and Ins. Ops, I'm at a distinct disadvantage compared to people who have been doing auto filings and WC plans for 3 - 4 years.

OTOH, the playing field will level a bit now for part 6, as I do have the aforementioned 1.5 years in reinsurance :dsmile:

And yes, I'm very hard on myself - I need to be. if I wasn't I would lose any opportunity for success.

;)

Avi, You are in a much better shape than me then (you atleast do reinsurance). I don't have any experience at all and have been banging my head with parts 5&6 for 2 yrs now. I can't move right now (its a long story why I can't?) and Geography has put me in a location where I can't get any experience on P/C side, its really hard to see me flunking with 5 points when I know I could have answered them if I had been getting relevant work experience. :horse:

Avi
05-15-2004, 11:11 PM
I was thinking of taking the individual values of each iterationand applying maximum likelihood to fit a 4 parameter generalized beta to the data, and then taking the 72.4 pecentile as an indicator of the inverse cubic spline of the expected score.

After you have done that, Avi, do the following:
1. Get yourself comfortable.
2. Have several healthy portions of your favorite beverage.
3. Recalculate that result in your head.

The result should then be golden. :)

BradThanksh. That wash very good advishe. I espe, spec, spehsilly likeded the part about the bevereshes, hic.

I think Ive pashed part 17 with about 400 pointsh on mulliple shoice and 27 pointsh on eshays.

hic

:beer:

Avi
05-15-2004, 11:13 PM
Thankee, horsepower, but what I know about myself is that I have no primary company experience and a grand total of about 20 months in the actuarial field. So for Ratemaking and Ins. Ops, I'm at a distinct disadvantage compared to people who have been doing auto filings and WC plans for 3 - 4 years.

OTOH, the playing field will level a bit now for part 6, as I do have the aforementioned 1.5 years in reinsurance :dsmile:

And yes, I'm very hard on myself - I need to be. if I wasn't I would lose any opportunity for success.

;)

Avi, You are in a much better shape than me then (you atleast do reinsurance). I don't have any experience at all and have been banging my head with parts 5&6 for 2 yrs now. I can't move right now (its a long story why I can't?) and Geography has put me in a location where I can't get any experience on P/C side, its really hard to see me flunking with 5 points when I know I could have answered them if I had been getting relevant work experience. :horse:I can empathize with you regarding work experience. The question you may wish to ask yourself is if you are in a position were it is well nigh impossible to get PC experience on either the primary or reinsurance level, why do you wish to persist in the CAS track?

Cynic
05-16-2004, 12:17 AM
I was thinking of taking the individual values of each iterationand applying maximum likelihood to fit a 4 parameter generalized beta to the data, and then taking the 72.4 pecentile as an indicator of the inverse cubic spline of the expected score.

After you have done that, Avi, do the following:
1. Get yourself comfortable.
2. Have several healthy portions of your favorite beverage.
3. Recalculate that result in your head.

The result should then be golden. :)

BradThanksh. That wash very good advishe. I espe, spec, spehsilly likeded the part about the bevereshes, hic.

I think Ive pashed part 17 with about 400 pointsh on mulliple shoice and 27 pointsh on eshays.

hic

:beer:

:rofl:

Avi, sounds like you have a better chance of passing your exam than I do.

beh_1970
05-16-2004, 01:46 PM
I can empathize with you regarding work experience. The question you may wish to ask yourself is if you are in a position were it is well nigh impossible to get PC experience on either the primary or reinsurance level, why do you wish to persist in the CAS track?

CAS is my passion, it appeals me more than SoA. The point I wanted to emphasize is that there are many candidates who are in a much worst condition (experience-wise) than you, so don't feel too bad about lack of your background regarding Exam5 stuff (not all of us have relevant jobs). P/C Actuarial jobs unfortunately are much more concentrated in some geographical areas of U.S & Canada, unlike Life/Pension work that is pretty much consistent worldwide (maybe mainly because of litigation issues associated with P/C).

Why I'm sticking to CAS? I think parts 5 and 6 (atleast) are doable with extra effort, even without work experience. Maybe i'm at a significant disAdvantage but still that seems doable and I'm wiling to do it. :crazy:

Avi
05-16-2004, 02:49 PM
I can empathize with you regarding work experience. The question you may wish to ask yourself is if you are in a position were it is well nigh impossible to get PC experience on either the primary or reinsurance level, why do you wish to persist in the CAS track?

CAS is my passion, it appeals me more than SoA. The point I wanted to emphasize is that there are many candidates who are in a much worst condition (experience-wise) than you, so don't feel too bad about lack of your background regarding Exam5 stuff (not all of us have relevant jobs). P/C Actuarial jobs unfortunately are much more concentrated in some geographical areas of U.S & Canada, unlike Life/Pension work that is pretty much consistent worldwide (maybe mainly because of litigation issues associated with P/C).

Why I'm sticking to CAS? I think parts 5 and 6 (atleast) are doable with extra effort, even without work experience. Maybe i'm at a significant disAdvantage but still that seems doable and I'm wiling to do it. :crazy:As for the availability of jobs, I know. I moved my family over 1000 miles to get the job I have, and I'm still debating the cost/benefits analysis now, 1.5 years after the fact. 'tis true that there are certain locations conducive to these jobs and most others are not.

Well I must say I appreciate your taste, I also did not even wish to consider non P/C jobs, and was fortunate enough to not have to.

Is moving a possibility for you? Have you looked for a P/C job in one of the more concentrated zones? If P/C is your passion, you will have to; more sooner than later.