BtPotEC Ghost Forum: Suspect for Round 3 Lynching

[snafu]

OK, Gandalf sent PMs to EC1 and EC2 that based on their being read or not seem to indicate that EC1 was away from the forum for Memorial Weekend and that EC2 was in the forum over the long weekend.

EC1 posted on the following days 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/2
EC2 posted on 5/24 and 5/25

The following people posted on each of 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/2 and did NOT post between 5/29 and 5/31

Cho Da, Ebenezer Kohl, Hagbard Celine, J.T., Kaput Shakur, Rocky, and thing

Rocky also has absolutely no posts between 5/26 and 6/2 whereas all of the others have posts on 5/27, 5/28, and 6/1.

I find this to be very damning evidence against Rocky.

What other evidence of guilt or innocence do we have concerning Rocky?

Edited to add Cho Da and thing to the list as they were incorrectly left off the original list.

[ahow]

You all know that I feel strongly about Sunny. I still don't see why she is still alive at this point. I thought the "Death to the Students" was going to kill her right off, but apparently people just think she is that dumb and clumsy. Well, she is not. She is very calculating and she says everything with conviction, in my opinion. I continue to say she is tops on my list. Also, she just said something along the lines of "I am so dumb" which is what the EC_ IDs have been playing. I feel as though she is getting the cart before the horse here. The EC should be copying off of her to throw suspicion on her, not her copying off EC by acting dumb (because she is not).

Rocky does not seem very suspicious to me, but I wouldn't be against killing him off since he is a very active, smart, and ballsy player. Just the type that could dupe a large amount of students into believing he is not the EC.

Just to offset these accusations of guilt, my top innocent pick would be Gandalf. But we all know the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist...

[Leela]

Snafu, I think creating a separate thread to talk about each round is a great idea.

I just can't make up my mind about Sunny. It just doesn't seem like the way EC would play the game, but maybe that's her strategy. One reason for keeping her alive is to gain more information if she turns out to be EC.

I really have no feelings either way about Rocky.

Like I've said before, at least one of the EC is probably someone who hasn't shown up on somebody's list yet, like Hagbard or Kenshiro. I think Ebenezer Kohl, jadzia, and Kaput Shakur are suspicious for their efforts to jump on the Round 1 bandwagons for 4sigma and Oblomov and the fact that their number of posts in the EC thread is in the middle of the range.

[Leela]

4sigma is at the top of my most likely innocent list (for now), with Gandalf a close second. I also believe that both of these players would better serve the students while alive. I'm afraid the EC will get smart soon and realize that we think 4sigma is innocent, and then kill him.

So, I propose that we post a message in the EC thread which asks for thoughts or innocence or guilt for a list of players. We would have to come up with a common list of players to ask about. My list would include 4sigma (to throw EC off track hopefully), Rocky, Ebenezer Kohl, and Mulan.

What do you think?

[snafu]

Back to my question about Rocky.

Rocky and EC1 have exactly the same posting pattern
Away on Memorial Weekend
Posted on 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, and 6/2
Did not post 5/27, 5/28, or 6/1.

Rocky is the only student that fits this pattern.

Do we have any other evidence that would indicate Rocky is guilty?
Do we have any reason to believe strongly that Rocky is innocent?

I think we should suggest Rocky this round for the following reasons.
Posting pattern makes strong suggestion he is EC1
If he is NOT EC1, the coincidence of posting patterns strongly indicates a setup and allows us to narrow EC1 to more strategic players

[snafu]

4sigma is at the top of my most likely innocent list (for now), with Gandalf a close second. I also believe that both of these players would better serve the students while alive. I'm afraid the EC will get smart soon and realize that we think 4sigma is innocent, and then kill him.

So, I propose that we post a message in the EC thread which asks for thoughts or innocence or guilt for a list of players. We would have to come up with a common list of players to ask about. My list would include 4sigma (to throw EC off track hopefully), Rocky, Ebenezer Kohl, and Mulan.

What do you think?

I like this idea a lot. For both the information and the off track purpose.

[Leela]

I read through some of Rocky's posts, and he's getting more suspicious to me. He has talked negatively about EC1 and EC2 and called them names a lot. All of this seems a little forced and overdone, like someone pretending to be a student.

But then he has made positive comments about the Ghost Forum. Now, I would think EC would be against the Ghost Forum since it is an advantage for the students. Now, I really wouldn't think the EC would make negative comments about the Ghost Forum either. I would expect them to say nothing about it

[Leela]

4sigma is at the top of my most likely innocent list (for now), with Gandalf a close second. I also believe that both of these players would better serve the students while alive. I'm afraid the EC will get smart soon and realize that we think 4sigma is innocent, and then kill him.

So, I propose that we post a message in the EC thread which asks for thoughts or innocence or guilt for a list of players. We would have to come up with a common list of players to ask about. My list would include 4sigma (to throw EC off track hopefully), Rocky, Ebenezer Kohl, and Mulan.

What do you think?

I like this idea a lot. For both the information and the off track purpose.

Now, we just need to decide who to ask about.

[snafu]

How about my list plus 4Sigma

The post would be something along the lines of...

The current student concensus through PMs seems to be

4Sigma, Cho Da, Ebenezer Kohl, Hagbard Celine, J.T., Kaput Shakur, Rocky, and thing

Please PM additional thoughts on these players to EC_Slayer or the Ghosts

[Leela]

Do we want to outright lie to them like that, or do we want to say something like ....


Based on student pms and ghost suspicions, we would like additional thoughts of guilt or innocence for 4sgima, ....

[snafu]

OK, your wording is better

The EC still hasn't spoken so we are in no hurry. We can wait until tomorrow in order to let SSH and ahow weight in on the subject.

[Leela]

I agree that we can wait.

[Leela]

We could use your wording. I just didn't know how untruthful we wanted to be. One of the issues about your wording is it sounds like those players are more in danger than if we use my wording. This could be a good or bad thing. I think it would get people to talk more, if they have strong opinions on any of those players, which would be a good thing. But it could also come out somehow that we were not being entirely truthful which could hurt our reputation.

[snafu]

We could use your wording. I just didn't know how untruthful we wanted to be. One of the issues about your wording is it sounds like those players are more in danger than if we use my wording. This could be a good or bad thing. I think it would get people to talk more, if they have strong opinions on any of those players, which would be a good thing. But it could also come out somehow that we were not being entirely truthful which could hurt our reputation.

I agree and that is why I think your wording is better.

[Leela]

Okay, we've hit a bit of a snag here. We were a round too late with this idea. 4sigma has notified me that he is the next EC victim. He is working on his death scene now, and will be joining us shortly.

[Super Silver Haze]

In short: I like the Rocky pick.

Rocky specifically said he was going to be away from 5/26 to 6/2.

Some additional evidence against Rocky: 4sigma said that when EC1 logged out of the chat room after talking to Sunny, Rocky logged in a few minutes later.

Just to be safe, you should be careful about using code. You don't want to give too much to the EC.

I don't know a lot of the players in this game, but when I saw the code correspondence, one player came to mind immediately as a slayer candidate. If you are that player, I hope that the EC doesn't think the same way that I do!

4sigma was the first one to come up with the idea of a code, I think, so I believe that's who Rocky was talking about here. Presto, 4sigma is next to get killed by the EC. I guess the EC does think the same way as Rocky... hmm...

As for the Sunny pick, she is still high on my list of suspects, and I don't disagree with anything ahow said, but Gandalf and CubedBee have pretty much said they're sure she's innocent, and 4sigma seemed to be leaning towards her being innocent as well. If we're trying to represent what the living students want, I think we should hold off on her for at least this round.

As long as Rocky gets at least one vote from a living student (which he almost certainly will, from Sunny), I say he goes to the gallows.

btw, I made a half-hearted effort to show that we suspected 4sigma by making a stapler vote for him... guess it didn't work, or maybe the EC just saw right through it.

[ahow]

Alright, so what is next? Rocky? Sunny???

[ahow]

As long as Rocky gets at least one vote from a living student (which he almost certainly will, from Sunny), I say he goes to the gallows.Wow, good call...

[Super Silver Haze]

Got this PM from Sunny. Other ghosts may have received it as well. Subject line was "Hey--this is what I'm pming EK, cubedbee, and some others".

I think I would like to lynch BC next. Would you pm the students to do this? I think 4sig left this as a clue. BC was one of my suspects, and BC has kept trying to deflect attention from Mulan, more than once I have observed, and I think it's more likely that BC is EC and Mulan is the sleeper than Will.

And because I've already voted for Rocky, I'll just follow some of you, whoever will start.

Let's do it!!!!

DEATH TO THE EC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So that's an indication of what actions we might expect to see from the students early next week... and BC is an unusual choice IMO, especially in light of the fact that he was having PM conversations with 4sigma and Gandalf.

[4sigma]

It is not odd that BC was having PM discussions with me, since we are friends IRL. It is not at all surprising that he built a Excel model to calculate the students' odds of winning the game. The very last PM I sent before my death was to request that he send me a copy of that model, which he did.

An interesting result that he found is that it is often in the best interest of the students to pass (i.e not lynch anybody) if EC kills the slayer while both original EC are alive. To the best of my knowledge, nobody had ever considered this possibility before. I think that if BC were EC, he would have kept this to himself rather than announce it to myself and Gandalf. I would say that this is therefore a point arguing BC's innocence. It does remain possible that he is playing a deep game as EC, but I think we have better targets for the moment.

My knowledge of him IRL includes the observation that he is not a particularly good liar. Of course, it is easier to to be a good liar in writing than it is in person.

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I also am not in any hurry to lynch Sunny. Sunny would not be able to keep silent if her life depended on it. If she is EC, I expect her to provide us plenty more evidence over the next few rounds.

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Rocky seems to have had something of an epiphany this game. Last game he was utterly anti-ghost. This game he is a huge ghost advocate. I think he got a bit shaken last game when I made my "thesis statement" accusing him of likely to be EC, and is trying to avoid the same errors this game. I don't feel like I have all that much of a read on him at the moment -- but he must be quaking in his boots now that I am a ghost and have input regarding who will be lynched.

I'm not sure I know who to lynch yet. I need to spend more time studying the data that is available here. At the moment my sense is toward lynching Rocky or Karma Police, but many others are also possible.

[4sigma]

I made a post in the public thread requesting information on several people. This is an extension of the idea you folks were suggesting earlier. I don't think we have any intention of lynching Gandalf this round, and probably not Will Durant either, if Gandalf is to be believed about the PM Will Durant sent him. I think Gandalf is in danger of being targeted by EC if he is innocent. So perhaps a public request for accusations against him will help to save him, if he is not EC.

I am curious what people think of karma police's claim that he is not EC since he was unable to login due to moving into a new house.

I hope everyone will make a post summarizing their full thoughts about each player in the "Summary" thread. But top priority now is to select our lynchee for this single round. I expect we will have about a week before we need to choose another.

[4sigma]

By the way, Mr. P. says we have until 5 p.m. Wednesday to lynch someone. I think that means we need a nominee by the start of business Wednesday. It looks like there is a confirmation process that needs to take place with the slayer -- perhaps that can happen overnight on Tuesday? If so, then we have until late Tuesday to determine our target.

[Leela]

I think that's an appropriate timetable. I have been keeping track of suggestions along with votes. I'll post the current tallies within the next 2 hours. I have to run some errands after work and some of the info is at home.

[4sigma]

I find this (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=30397&start=1109)to be a bit odd:

I just read a post from "Seven" a few minutes ago where he was refuting KP's claims that Gandalf was EC. However, it was obvious from the post that it was Gandalf who was replying. Now that post is gone. Gandalf is starting to seem a little suspicious to me...

I looked through the list of usernames and I don't find any "seven" or "7". It does look like either Butters or Gandalf is doing something strange here.

[Leela]

I found that confusing too. And, even if Gandalf did sign in and post as "Seven", how is that evidence that he is EC. Now, if EC1 or EC2 had posted something refuting KP's claims, that would be a different story.

[4sigma]

Rocky thinks that Butters is talking to me in code. Which, btw, he isn't. I wonder if he's talking to someone else? Has anyone received a PM from Butters regarding what he's up to?
Just a note.

It looks like you've put in place a type of code to communicate with some of the living students. I hope that it helps our search for the EC, but you should make sure that those living students to reply via PM only. Any posts to the EC thread that contain code or attempt to give information to the ghosts could be construed by the students to be a legit post and a potential clue. It may lead some of us astray.

I mention this because Butters post about Gandalf and Seven makes no sense to me. He may be communicating with you (or the ghosts in general), but to me it's just gibberish since there is no "Seven" on the member list.

I do think there is some credence to be given to the observation that Rocky has never had an avatar. Maybe he just prefers not to, but I am wondering if he has actually never figured out how to upload one.

Butters is starting to show up on my radar as a lynching prospect.

Edit: Gandalf has now clarified that he did actually make a posting accidentally under another ID. This does make Butters blameless in this, though he may have misread the name of the ID.

[Leela]

Here is the tally so far for Round 3:

Suggested:
All Clear - 1
Avi - 3
BC - 4
Cho Da - 3
CubedBee - 1
Gandalf - 6
Hagbard Celine - 1
Jables - 2
Kaput Shakur - 1
karma police - 3
Maine-iac - 1
Mulan - 5
Rocky - 4
Sunny - 5
Will Durant - 5

Votes
Avi -1
Cho Da - 1
Gandalf - 3
karma police - 1
Mulan - 2
Sunny - 2
Ultimate Anyone - 1
Will Durant - 5

[Leela]

As far as Butters goes, he said from the beginning, in his "in post" that he would be on vacation during the time EC was picked. Unless, he posted that on the off chance he was EC or the slayer, I don't think he's suspicious yet. He could, however, be the sleeper.

[Leela]

Here are my thoughts on who could be EC (copied from the pm thread):

So here are my thoughts on how the EC should play the game....


They should lay low, not post too much or too little. They should have jumped on the bandwagon to lynch Oblomov, and they should have made a stapler vote in the first round. That way the students wouldn't get suspicious.

The players that fit this description are Ultimate Anyone, Kaput Shakur, Ebenezer Kohl, Jables, 4sigma, jadzia, karma police.

Now, I'm not saying that both EC members are in this group, but there's a good possibility that one is.

To extend this theory a little further, I think we should take a look at who voted for 4sigma, and then changed their vote to Oblomov. I think the EC would have jumped on the first bandwagon also. This limits the above pool of players to Ebenezer Kohl, jadzia, and Kaput Shakur.


I will post in the who are the original EC thread when I get time to organize my thoughts more.

[snafu]

I feel very strongly that Rocky fits the profile for EC1
identical post time pattern
identical extended absence over Memorial Weekend (the only posted out for not only the weekend but for an extended long weekend.
active as student for commentary but no real committments on votes (waits until bandwagon already forming
Have seen him online several times at the same time as EC2
Following into chat after EC1
Familiarity with both Sunny and Chat

I really think we should suggest Rocky. Can anyone make a better case for someone else or give strong exculpatory evidence for Rocky?

[Leela]

What do you think of this post (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=30397&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=1124) by Rocky? Do you agree with him? Something about it just doesn't ring true, but that could be because I'm taking his comment too personal. I wanted to get some other opinions on it.

[ahow]

In that Rocky post, I think he is just BSing, since even if we kept this info in the ghost forum, anyone could just as easily reproduce it themselves. I would up for nominating Rocky and I have a feeling we are going to be pleasantly surprised...

[4sigma]

I can't believe I'm defending Rocky now.... ;)

While I agree that Rocky has blown this somewhat out of proportion, I can see his case that it's not necessarily useful to be providing "suggestion" subtotals in the public thread. The idea being that everyone should suggest who they honestly suspect, so why would they need to look at a subtotal count. Except EC of course doesn't have anyone that they "suspect", so they might use such a tally in order to manipulate the totals.

I would not be utterly opposed to lynching Rocky, and if everyone else is on board for him then so am I. If he is not EC, I think he would be a decent ghost. But he is not in my top 3 for the moment. Perhaps I am gullible, but I find his defense that he has never had an avatar to be plausible. I actually think his behavior is consistent with how he acted during the latter part of the last EC game. I also think that if Rocky were EC, he would not make me a ghost quite so quickly.

My top choice at the moment is karma police, unless someone finds his story convincing about moving into a new house this weekend being evidence of his innocence. If you look at his recent posting, he is only missing from the forum for Weds/Thurs June 2/3, and Sunday June 6. I don't see why that can't be EC. I think he fits the profile of EC1.

My other choices at the moment are Mulan and Cho Da, for possible EC2's. Cho Da I consider more of a longshot. Jables is also a possibility, though I do not think he has received votes? Still, we could recommend him as a possibility to the slayer.

[4sigma]

Upon review, I agree that Rocky's posting schedule is suspicous, as snafu has pointed out. If he is not EC then it is quite possible that a very sophisticated EC2 has set him up. I still prefer lynching karma police to Rocky, but upon reflection am more agreeable to the Rocky choice.

P.S. If we lynch him, may I nominate him, please? I would consider this a personal favor... :D

[Leela]

The latest pm I received from karma police, which I posted in the pm thread, makes me more suspicious of him. So, I would be fine with suggesting him.

My top choices are Kaput Shakur and Cho Da.

[4sigma]

OK, late-breaking news. A player has PMd me that he/she is the former slayer. I find him/her to be credible about this.

Assuming this is true, we should definitely not have him/her lynched or slain. Though it is good to let them be in the limelight as a "suspect" so that EC does not feel inclined to hit them.

Random thought: Our current slayer seems very competent. However, it is possible that EC will kill them and we will get a replacement slayer. There is something to be said for lynching/slaying incompent people so that, if our slayer dies, this increases the odds of our replacement slayer being a competent person.

Edited to remove the name of the former slayer, for their protection. This has been viewed and PMd to enough people to protect this person now.

[4sigma]

EK is requesting our approval for people to start voting before we return our nomination for this round.May I get an executive decision on my proposal? It is meaningless as a mere suggestion from a student to the students.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. I see his point but I think he is misguided here.

[snafu]

OK as far as who to suggest this round, we need to get off our duff and get going. I think Rocky and Will Durant are the most likely candidates. I would prefer Rocky but Will Durant seems to be leading the student selection.

4Sigma - I need to go to a meeting. Can you post in code to make sure the Slayer doesn't have any issues with either of these choices. Also, if you can think of anyone else that should make the short list for this round, double-check with the slayer on them as well. Make sure when you post in code to have the slayer confirm the code reading via PM back to us. Also, try to get the darn slayer to let us know who the heck they are. I really think this is pretty crucial information.

[ahow]

EK is requesting our approval for people to start voting before we return our nomination for this round.May I get an executive decision on my proposal? It is meaningless as a mere suggestion from a student to the students.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. I see his point but I think he is misguided here.I almost feel like he is making a desperate attempt at something here. I think it is a bad idea, but he seems quite ademant about it. I really think we have all the info we are going to get at this point. I would be up for making a nominee. I would go with Either Karma Police or Rocky. Although Rocky would be my #1 choice.

Man, I want to change my stapler vote so bad after reading things in here. Do you think we could work that into a scheme to get the EC? 4Sigma, any thoughts?

[4sigma]

Well, it looks like our top 2 choices are Rocky and karma police. We can lynch one and strongly recommend the other to the slayer. Since Rocky has more votes, perhaps we should lynch him and leave KP to the slayer. Although this may make it look like Gandalf is the slayer, since he is the only one on the karma police bandwagon.

It may make more sense if we lynch karma police and leave it to the slayer to take our Rocky. Lots of people have cast aspersions on Rocky and that may help keep Gandalf alive, which I am assuming we want to do for the moment.

Is there a consensus among the ghosts about the guilt of Will Durant? It looks to me like some think he is innocent and some think he is guilty.

Should we provide the slayer a list of people to choose from, or do we want to give just one name that we recommend that they lynch?

[snafu]

Personally, Will Durant fits the profile of EC2 very well and Rocky fits the profile of EC1 very well. Karma Police fits neither profile as well as those two. KP is active in political but did not post over memorial weekend.

I say suggest Rocky and Will Durant to the slayer and let the slayer choose between the two.

KP is annoying but I do not think he is guilty.

[snafu]

The more I review the evidence the more I keep coming back to Will Durant = EC2. See Profile -- EC 2 for the case against WD.

[Leela]

I think we should list Rocky, karma police, and Will in our code to the slayer. But remember that the slayer takes into account which order we put them in. And as long as the first player we lynch isn't the slayer or someone the slayer is 100% convinced is innocent, he will tell us the first one is fine. We will have to figure out someway to tell the slayer to decide between the three if that's what we want him to do.

[4sigma]

OK, I'm going to post a coded message to the slayer saying we are fairly suspicious of Rocky and kp, and slightly suspicious of Will Durant and Cho Da. I'm also going to add that we think that the former-slayer is innocent, and that Gandalf and BC are probably innocent. That's my best take on the consensus at the moment.

We can revise this in the future if we need to, but hopefully it will be enough to get the Slayer to send us a message so that we can take action. We are running out of time before the lynch mob becomes a lynch mob.

[snafu]

I don't suppose your code can handle a message of "please tell us who the hell you are so we can take it into consideration in our hunting"? :D

[4sigma]

That's not built into the code. The code is designed to communicate who we think is innocent or guilty. It did not occur to me that the slayer might not announce their identity to the ghosts. I am trying to persuade the slayer to tell us who they are, but so far have not had any success.

[snafu]

AAARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!! :evil:

Check out my short list in the Profile -- EC 2

I think the list is down to three people, or we were given erroneous information by Gandalf about the PM to EC2 being opened on Memorial Weekend. Either way, solid information to be gained.

I'm going home now. Will check in later this evening after the kids are asleep. Pretty big time zone difference between you and me. 4 hours since you're on Pacific and I'm on Atlantic.

[Leela]

Here's an excerpt from I pm I received on June 3 from the Slayer discussing revealing his identity to us:


In any case, I think I'll end up divulging which student I am to one ghost one of these days (probably late next week, or the week after that), meanwhile, maybe make a poll in the ghost forum where you can all guess who I am.

[4sigma]

snafu,

I did check out your short list. Thanks for this research.

This does move werewolf and Kaput Shakur up my suspect list, though at this point I think that may have to wait until the "who do we get in round 4" thread. Particularly Kaput Shakur -- it is odd that EC targeted people with low post counts, but skipped over him. I will also keep a closer eye on werewolf.

I do think though, that we must allow for the possibility that EC may post as EC at a different time than they post under their real ID. Particularly EC2, who appears to be a bit more clever than EC1.


I would like to take this opportunity to request that all ghosts post as complete a list as possible of their suspects (and innocents) in the Summary thread. This makes it easiest to determine what our consensus is, even when certain players are not around to post at certain times of the day.

[Super Silver Haze]

I would like to take this opportunity to request that all ghosts post as complete a list as possible of their suspects (and innocents) in the Summary thread. This makes it easiest to determine what our consensus is, even when certain players are not around to post at certain times of the day.

I'll work on filling in the gaps in my list.

I just read what happened today in the game thread, and I'd like to say that from this point on, I don't think it's necessary to make everyone wait just so I can get my opinion in. If there's a situation like today where living students want to move ahead, it's okay to go forward without directly hearing from me. Just check the Summary thread for my thoughts on things, taking into account that something may have happened during the day to make my opinions less relevant. This should not be taken to mean that I'm dropping out of the game - I'll still post any thoughts I have whenever I can.

I am 100% fine with the coded message that was posted for the slayer.

[4sigma]

OK, so our list has been sent off to the slayer. In my grocery list I posted that we are fairly suspicious of KP and Rocky, and somewhat suspicious of Will Durant and Cho Da.

Having said that, I still am lukewarm to the Rocky pick this round, and also not that keen on Will Durant and Cho Da. I think Gandalf will wonder what we are doing if we lynch Will or Rocky, as he identified them as likely innocent. I am hoping that the slayer comes back with recommending KP, and we may wish to give further consideration for who the slayer may elect to slay.

Snafu's analysis raises werewolf and Kaput Shakur on my radar. Although they did not receive votes, there is no reason that the slayer could not slay them. We may wish to use the slayer's power to target people that aren't getting votes. There will likely be opportunities to target this round's vote-getters in future rounds, as they continue to receive votes.

[Leela]

Kaput Shakur has been on my radar for his voting pattern and post count to the thread. So, I would like to suggest his name to the slayer.

[Leela]

By the way, what does everyone think of Ebenezer's postings today? It seemed a little strange to me. I don't think he's EC, because I don't think the EC would risk being so vocal and adamant. I wonder if he's the new slayer, and just making sure that he's on the suspicion list so that the EC won't kill him.

[Leela]

You all know far more than me. I am one slayer, and the ghost forum has as least 4 contributing members. Still, I believe in the innocence of all three people brought up in the code, Karma Police, Rocky, and Will Durant. Still, with so little this early in the game to show signs of guilt, Karma Police looks ok to me. Rocky seems more innocent, constantly sending me messages of his thoughts, most of which don't seem that crazy (like Sunny's), and Will hasn't seemed that odd to me, save for the Mulan bit. None of them are the slayer, so feel free to select which one you want. If I need to make a choice, it would be Will Durant (Leela spoke about someone putting these numbers in the right order, maybe she is talking about me), but you guys can make the call on this. Worst case, Will Durant will still be suspicious next time it the ghosts' turn, so you can knock him, Karma, or Rocky then.


So, it looks like all three suspects are okay. Who do we want to choose?

[4sigma]

Of these three, my preference is for karma police.

[Leela]

Sounds good to me. Do we want to wait for any other ghosts to weigh in?

[snafu]

Snafu's analysis raises werewolf and Kaput Shakur on my radar. Although they did not receive votes, there is no reason that the slayer could not slay them. We may wish to use the slayer's power to target people that aren't getting votes. There will likely be opportunities to target this round's vote-getters in future rounds, as they continue to receive votes.

But neither karma police nor Kaput Shakur posted during the entire Memorial Weekend and according to Gandalf, EC2 opened his PM during that weekend. Do you really think either of those two post-hogs could check in over the weekend and not post?

My very short list for EC2 is Will Durant, Werewolf, and Butters (with WD way ahead).

I would suggest we move the students to lynch Will Durant and if he is not EC then have the slayer take out Werewolf. My bet would be we get an EC by the end of this round.

My very short list for EC1 is Rocky, Kaput Shakur, then a big gap, then in no particular order Cho Da, Ebenezer Kohl, Hagbard Celine, J.T., and thing. This is the list of people that did NOT post Memorial Weekend but did post on every other day that EC1 posted.

[Super Silver Haze]

From most to least likely to be EC: Rocky, Will Durant, karma police

I don't think any of these are bad choices, though.

[Leela]

I'm going to post karma police since it's getting late, and this is as much of a consensus as anything else. And unfortunately, we'll probably have many more chances.

[Tim><]

So, are you at least going to congratulate me on my house?

[Leela]

Yes, congratulations. I just bought a house recently also. We haven't had the pleasure of moving yet.

[snafu]

Welcome KP. Sorry to hear you weren't EC. Hopefully you will enjoy helping us find the true EC.

[Tim><]

Thank you!

[Tim><]

Thank you!

[ahow]

Congrats on the house and welcome to the Ghost Forum...

[Tim><]

Thanks!

[Leela]

I would like to hit Hagbard Celine. As the leader of the ghost forum last time, he should have a lot to be telling us about, advice to give us, or at least posts that say something. I did a tiring search through the posts of 9 people I had slight suspicions of, and he was the only one that jumped out at me (possibly aside from Jables) that looked different than what would be expected. I thought the same thing last time, but still thought Sunny was very EC-like, and Anonymouse and Ahow were just being too quiet. Lets do another code....

Please post a 6 digit number where the sixth (6) digit is the code one ( _ _ _ _ _ h) where the "h" will mean

1 = get Hagbard (my choice, and what I would prefer unless there is a strong contingent that wants something else)
2 = get Jables
3 = get Sunny (I still don't like her, but right now like Hagbard even less)
4 = get Anonymouse (he appears right now to be the quietest one, something I don't think is a good thing for the students, but this can be rectified later in the game)
5 = ghosts are fine with me getting whoever I would prefer (this will probably be Hagbard)
6 = ghosts have a strong feeling for someone different (note that I may not like this person, in which case he may have to be saved for when it is the ghosts' turn once more). If this is the case, please follow the original 6 digit code with another one (or two) six digit numbers, where numbers 5 and 6 of the six digits refer to the person, and just to change it up, please use 4sigma's code, which has 08 for thing (on the bottom), and then counts upwards on Mr. Penguin's list until 42 which is Ebenezer Kohl. So to confirm, if I see a post of "420496 593211", that means the ghosts have a strong feeling for mulan instead, and would like me to hit her.

Post as soon as possible in the main thread, although if you want the other ghosts to look at this also, I don't mind waiting a slight time. Since you probably know already what the ghosts' feelings are, you can post as soon as you get this, if applicable.


I just got this message from the Slayer. So, let's discuss briefly and decide what to tell him. I think Hagbard is a good choice. I have been kind of thinking about him, not enough to bring him up. But I have been wondering why he has been so quiet.

[Tim><]

You guys had a list of 3 suspects (including me :swear:). Why have you abandoned the other two?

[Leela]

So, are you saying we should tell the Slayer to hit Will or Rocky? Or are you complaining about people we are considering for the next lynching?

[Tim><]

So, are you saying we should tell the Slayer to hit Will or Rocky? Or are you complaining about people we are considering for the next lynching?

I am saying that you guys seem to have put in a lot of thought in choose myself WD and Rocky. I don't see how my innocence should change your thoughts on the other two. You know I think we should lynch Gandalf. However, if we are not going to do that, I think you guys should at least stick to your plan. That the Slayer is not even considering any of the other two suspects is surprising.

[snafu]

Hagbard is not a regular poster in political. This would imply that he does not fit the profile for EC2.

Hagbard posted every single day during Memorial weekend and according to Gandalf PM Trap, EC1 let a PM sit until Tuesday after the long weekend.

Hagbard fits the profile for neither EC1 or EC2 and will turn out to be an innocent student.

I think there are strong cases in the profiles for Will Durant and Rocky. Why are we not hitting these guys? Should we just let the slayer do his own thing or do we want to suggest.

[Leela]

But the Slayer does not view everything the same as we do, which is a good thing. Everyone has a different opinion. The Slayer thinks Rocky is innocent. Some of the ghosts disagree. Plus I think it's a good idea to have the Slayer get players who are not getting votes, but are acting suspicious. We can't suggest them, because the students want us to take their votes into account. Since there is a very good possibility that at least one EC has not been suggested or voted for, the Slayer is a good way to go after those players who are lying low.

We are lucky that the Slayer is consulting us at all. He doesn't have to run his choices by us.

[Tim><]

Hagbard is not a regular poster in political. This would imply that he does not fit the profile for EC2.

Hagbard posted every single day during Memorial weekend and according to Gandalf PM Trap, EC1 let a PM sit until Tuesday after the long weekend.

Hagbard fits the profile for neither EC1 or EC2 and will turn out to be an innocent student.

I think there are strong cases in the profiles for Will Durant and Rocky. Why are we not hitting these guys? Should we just let the slayer do his own thing or do we want to suggest.

The slayer does not have to listen to our suggestion. He is, however, asking for it. If you feel strongly for either WD or Rocky, you should let him know. If you feel it could be either one of them, post a 3 number response. If he can't figure it out, he will ask us. Incidentally, we should have a code to tell the slayer that our answer does not fit his parameters. This code would tell him to start asking us questions in order to try and figure out what we are trying to say.

[Tim><]

Ditto, Leela. He is asking us and so we should answer him truthfully. If he wanted us to choose one of his choices, he can ask us to do so.

[Leela]

Hagbard fits the profile for neither EC1 or EC2 and will turn out to be an innocent student.



What if our profiles are wrong?

And just because EC1 didn't open his pm doesn't mean, the player was gone during Memorial Day Weekend. Maybe he just didn't sign in as EC1 during that time. Especially if it wasn't time for the EC to make their pick. That way if we brought up the weekend posting stats, he could say I was here on Memorial Day weekend, but it appears that EC1 wasn't. Therefore, I'm not EC1.

[Leela]

We could say do what you want, but we like still like Will and Rocky. Then let him decide.

[snafu]

I will admit that the profile for EC1 is a little weaker than that for EC2. The profile for EC2, on the other hand, is very strong. The first post by EC2 uses two phrases that show up pretty much only in political. EC2 did open a PM over Memorial weekend (or Gandalf is a liar). There are exactly three players that fit the profile of political and posted over the long weekend - Butters, Werewolf, and Will Durant. There were a decent number of votes for Will Durant during the last round. The Slayer doesn't have to follow us but I think there is very strong evidence against WD and noone is giving me reasons why WD is innocent.

[Tim><]

We could say do what you want, but we like still like Will and Rocky. Then let him decide.

I agree. However, how do you propose saying that? I have some ideas.

Also, do we prefer one over the other? Personally, I think we should suggest Rocky, since there is a good chance that WD will be the popular choice of the students for lynching in the next round. There has already been some discontent in the forum with our choices; perhaps it would be good if we chose someone many are suspicious of for the next lynching and had the slayer choose someone not often mentioned.

Suggest: Rocky

[snafu]

We could say do what you want, but we like still like Will and Rocky. Then let him decide.

And I think that is what KP and I would prefer. KP, do you agree?

[Tim><]

We could say do what you want, but we like still like Will and Rocky. Then let him decide.

And I think that is what KP and I would prefer. KP, do you agree?

Yes.

[Leela]

I think he's innocent because he didn't get on the Oblomov bandwagon. Also, I think his high profile spat with Mulan is evidence for innocence. Remember that the EC doesn't want to draw attention to themselves. They want to blend in with the other students and slip by.

[snafu]

Also, do we prefer one over the other? Personally, I think we should suggest Rocky, since there is a good chance that WD will be the popular choice of the students for lynching in the next round. There has already been some discontent in the forum with our choices; perhaps it would be good if we chose someone many are suspicious of for the next lynching and had the slayer choose someone not often mentioned.

Suggest: Rocky

I like this and would agree to a response to the slayer that we suspect Rocky but do as you think best.

This could be posted exactly as the above except with Rocky in code.

Objections?

[4sigma]

I have already told the slayer that we suspect Rocky, via the groceries. Also he was on the short list that Leela posted.

I am inclined to let the slayer pick off Hagbard -- I think the only evidence we have seen for Hagbard's innocence is his posting schedule, which I think can be manipulated by a clever EC. Against that, Hagbard has been rather quiet this game and I agree with the slayer that it is a bit odd he has not been more vocal.

[snafu]

I think he's innocent because he didn't get on the Oblomov bandwagon. Also, I think his high profile spat with Mulan is evidence for innocence. Remember that the EC doesn't want to draw attention to themselves. They want to blend in with the other students and slip by.

A risky strategy if he were EC but one with a high payoff. If he gets busted and lynched - there is a replacement EC in the sleeper that early in the game. If he doesn't get busted, he's planted bood evidence for not being EC.

Also, if you look at everyone who takes an active role as non-EC then we should just go back to the lynch the quiet ones strategy.

[Tim><]

Any reactions to my point about lynching WD next round. He would be a popular choice among the students. If you agree, which choice now would best set us up to lynch WD next round?

[Leela]

Here's the code I propose posting:


We decided on _ _ _ _ _ 5, but we were strongly considering _ _ _ _ _ 6, _ _ _ _13, _ _ _ _ 40.


(I'll fill in the other numbers when I post.)
The Slayer will let me know if we've confused him.

[Leela]

Also, if you look at everyone who takes an active role as non-EC then we should just go back to the lynch the quiet ones strategy.

Well, not really lynch the quiet ones, but lynch the semi-quiet ones.

[Tim><]

Here's the code I propose posting:


We decided on _ _ _ _ _ 5, but we were strongly considering _ _ _ _ _ 6, _ _ _ _13, _ _ _ _ 40.


(I'll fill in the other numbers when I post.)
The Slayer will let me know if we've confused him.

I think that we should only give him one suggestion. If we give him 3, we may as well be telling him to lynch Hagbard.

[4sigma]

Here's the code I propose posting:


We decided on _ _ _ _ _ 5, but we were strongly considering _ _ _ _ _ 6, _ _ _ _13, _ _ _ _ 40.


(I'll fill in the other numbers when I post.)
The Slayer will let me know if we've confused him.

I am fine with this, although I am pretty sure s/he will lynch Hagbard if we do this. Again, our suspects have already been communicated to him via the groceries and by your last posting, Leela.

[Leela]

We're only giving him 2 suggestions, but we could just give one.

The code basically says we decided that we're okay with whoever you pick, but we strongly considered telling you someone different, Rocky, Will Durant.


I could change it so that we just suggest Rocky.

[Leela]

I am fine with this, although I am pretty sure s/he will lynch Hagbard if we do this. Again, our suspects have already been communicated to him via the groceries and by your last posting, Leela.

I agree he will probably pick Hagbard since he seems pretty convinced that Rocky is innocent.

[Tim><]

I think we should come to one conclusion amongst our selves and then say something like -

We are fine with -----5, but would prefer ----xx.

[Tim><]

We're only giving him 2 suggestions, but we could just give one.

The code basically says we decided that we're okay with whoever you pick, but we strongly considered telling you someone different, Rocky, Will Durant.


I could change it so that we just suggest Rocky.

I think that is the way to go.

[Tim><]

FYI, I am leaving in 10 minutes. So, if you want my vote or suggestions, let me know soon.

[snafu]

I would prefer

option 5 with a strong suggestion for Rocky and an open post of "but do as you see fit"

[Leela]

Alright, I will post the above code, but without Will.

[Tim><]

I would prefer

option 5 with a strong suggestion for Rocky and an open post of "but do as you see fit"

I second that suggestion.

[snafu]

Can we get agreement now that if Rocky turns out to be EC then Will Durant is next to go?

[Tim><]

I think there will be more than one reason to pick WD in the next round. However, I don't think we need to make that decision now.

[Leela]

How does this sound:


We decided on 156845, but we were strongly considering 734896 with 256713 as a strong suggestion, but do as you see fit.


Any objections, other than the bad grammar?

[snafu]

How does this sound:


We decided on 156845, but we were strongly considering 734896 with 256713 as a strong suggestion, but do as you see fit.


Any objections, other than the bad grammar?

I'm good.

[Tim><]

I think we should only suggest Rocky. However, I need to go now. Good luck with the decision!

[Leela]

I think we should only suggest Rocky. However, I need to go now. Good luck with the decision!

We are only suggesting Rocky. The second number in the thread means that we wanted to suggest someone else to him. It is not a suggestion of a player.

[snafu]

That is a suggestion of only Rocky. It says We decided on (code for do as you like) but considered (code for we think this one is guilty as sin) with (code for Rocky) as our strong suggestion.

[Leela]

Well, I'll go do my posting now that we have everyone thoroughly confused. :wink:

[Tim><]

Oh ok. Got it.

[Leela]

I was very close to selecting Rocky and following what you all thought. After reading his pm's, though, I almost like him around as a student. He sends me constant private messages (I will forward the recent ones tomorrow), and his ideas that are thrown out don't sound that bad. Decided to go with Hagbard, though. Maybe one of these days we may actually hit someone. :D :wink:

[EC2W]

que this slayer buziness? no this slayer in current juego mi guess is dat ec gets smarter so tienen miedo to fight us comprende real reason?