BtPotEC Ghost Forum: SUMMARY -- WHO ARE THE ORIGINAL 2 EC?

[4sigma]

The purpose of this thread is to review all the evidence that each of us consider important in judging who is or is not likely to be EC. The idea is to be able to look in a single place to highlight the key evidence about each remaining living person, rather than having to sift back through pages and pages of bafflingly long PMs.

EDITED TO ADD -- ORIGINALLY I HAD INTENDED THIS THREAD TO ONLY BE FOR WHO WE THOUGHT WERE THE ORIGINAL 2 EC. THIS WAS WHEN I THOUGHT MR. PENGUIN WAS GOING TO DIVULGE WHETHER OR NOT WE HAD HIT THE SLEEPER WHEN WE HIT THE 2ND EC. SINCE THIS IS UNKNOWN, I THINK IT MAKES SENSE TO CONTINUE TO USE THIS SAME THREAD, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT SURE NOW WHETHER WE HAVE HIT EC2 OR THE SLEEPER.

-- In this thread, please limit yourself to One post per person.

-- As your thoughts change over time, please edit your previous post. It probably makes sense to remove dead people from the list as well. Several people seem to be moving them to small font at the end of their post.

-- It will be easiest to use this as a reference if everyone lists the players in alphabetical order. 23 Jun -- Now that we are receiving ranking lists from the players, and since there is a more manageable number of players remaining, I think it makes sense to make our lists into rankings so that these can be easily compiled -- 4σ

-- Please try to be as specific as possible with reasons. The idea is not just to express your opinion, but to call attention to the evidence that you think is important. Links to the actual evidence in the public EC thread or elsewhere here in the ghost forum are strongly encouraged.

Following is my ranking list, from most likely EC to least likely:

GENERAL COMMENT #1: I believe that BC could easily have been EC2. The only indications that he is not are the fact that he did not post over Memorial Day, and that he made a half-hearted offere to me to be lynched after I became a ghost. With my knowledge of him, I think he is quite capable of both of these.

It is far from clear, however. In any event, it is possible that the remaining EC is EC2, and it is possble that they are the sleeper, in which case all of their actions that took place prior to the death of EC1 are meaningless. As such, my rankings below concentrate primarily on evidence that we have only since the death of EC1. In a few instances I have noted where the person is likely or unlikely to be EC2.

GENERAL COMMENT #2: IMHO, the way we win this game is by figuring out who is NOT EC, protecting them, and systematically lynching whoever is left. EC is quite capable of lying low and doing nothing that is obviously suspect. As such, I have few suspects at the moment for who is EC. I have far more suspects for who is NOT EC.

Traina Not much of a read on Traina. Noteworthy perhaps that she gave her proxy to EK for a round. I think it is equally possible that either EC or an innocent student would do this.

One reason not to lynch her would be that EC seems to have gotten the idea that the slayer is female. It might help protect the slayer to leave Traina out there as a decoy.

RedSoxFan He has been rather quieter this game than last game. Apparently he is quite active in the chess threads.

Will Durant: Will Durant has moved up my target list due to the apparent failure of the KP hoax. The hoax may or may not have failed on its merits. But it would fail with certainty if Will Durant was EC. The hoax apparently has fooled the vast majority of students, so I think it is not unlikely that it has failed with EC because either Will or Anonymouse is EC.

Asynchronous also points out that he subtllely attempted to deflect the voting from BC in the round when BC was lynched.

In any event, EC appears to be convinced that he is not the slayer, so even if we had no reason to suspect Will whatsoever, removing him from the game would be preferable to removing anyone else, from the point of view of protecting our slayer.

Evidence in his favor is his innocuous inquiry to Gandalf regarding the bandwagon for Oblomov, and the fact that CubedBee cast a vote for lynching him at the bottom of page 42.

Ebenezer Kohl: I do not think that EK is EC. However, his bold voting strategy was badly implemented and denied the ghosts the ability to protect several innocent students. It may be more fun for him, but the results were horrible. EC must be delighted.

One key point in his favor is the fact that BC has him ranked as very guilty on his rankings list. I do not think that BC would have ranked him so high if EK were his EC partner.

All Clear I am slightly inclined to think All Clear is innocent for his high-profile arguments with EK, and his complaint to Mr. P about the refusal to identify which EC BC was.

Asynchronous: Very likely innocent. Led the charge to have BC lynched in Round 8. An improbable strategy for EC, though possibly an extremely crafty way to prove one is innocent, at the expense of one's partner. From my knowledge of BC, I do not think he would have committed this, but it is barely possible.

jadzia: I feel very strongly that jadzia is not EC2. I also highly doubt that she is the sleeper. The reasons for this are twofold: First, she is ranked as so likely EC on BC's rankings list. She also cast the 2nd vote for BC in the round he was lynched, which moved him out of a pack of folks with 1 vote each into a leading candidate for lynching. This seems quite improbable for jadzia as EC to have done.


Anonymouse: I don't think he takes this EC game very seriously. Same reasoning for hitting him as for hitting Will Durant.

BC: I think BC has a moderate indication of innocence. Note that I may have some bias here since BC and I were roommates in college.

The main reason I think he is innocent is because BC built a model estimating the probabilty of the students winning the game. In building this, he found that it may be right for the students not to lynch anyone if EC kills the slayer while there are still 2 EC alive. This is a non-intuitive result that I don't think anyone had discussed before that point. If he had said nothing, we might well have never come up with this on our own. So I think if he were EC he might well have never mentioned this. Since he did come forward with it, this suggests to me that he is not EC.

Upon reflection, I later decided that BC was likely to have shared the above information regardless of whether or not he was EC. I then began to suspect him as more likely EC due to the fact he works in the Central time zone, and fits the profile of EC2 in terms of the time of day that he usually posts.

J.T. I think it is likely that J.T. is innocent. The main reason being that BC voted for her in the round when BC was lynched. BC's vote was very early in the round and also attracted Traina's proxy, making 2 votes for J.T. This very nearly made her a lynching candidate that round. A very risky strategy if J.T. is in fact EC.

Jables: I think Jables has signs of being innocent, due to his internet access restrictions. However, this is not terribly conclusive. I think it is also a point in his favor that he sent us a ranking list early. EC, if there is a sleeper, will have to be "careful" in constructing their ranking list. The fact that someone creates one quickly suggests to me that they are not EC.

Kaput Shakur Slightly suspicious as a "low post counter" who has been passed over for lynching at the start of the game when low post count types were being hit. If EC started the game by targeting low post counters, why did they kill Leela instead of Kaput? Perhaps because Kaput is EC? Also matches EC2's posting schedule and active in political. Against that, does not have an avatar. However, this could easily be an alternate ID of a political junkie who never bothered to create an avatar for it. My 2nd choice for EC2 at the moment.

Kenshiro: I consider Kenshiro less likely than average to be EC, due to his good strategy insights, especially his post on page 16. Another decent one on page 43. However, the evidence is not all that strong.

Macroman I have not strong opinions about Macroman yet.

Maine-iac She does not seem to be following the game very closely. I do not think she fits the profile of EC2.


Mulan: I find her early naivete genuine -- I think that she likes to try and appear that way in general, not just in the EC thread. I find her bickering with CubedBee to be a very strong indicator that she is not EC2. The firestorm between them could easily have gotten her lynched. Since CubedBee = EC1, Mulan cannot possibly be EC2.

Ultimate Anyone: No strong opinion on UA. Voted to have him slain since Sunny had let slip that he was not the slayer.

werewolf Werewolf is on my radar for following posting on about the same days as EC2, per snafu's analysis. Werewolf also "took the bait" on the plan by Ashynch and myself to :capn: the "cards and dice" thread to see who is familiar with the game "Paranoia", since this is the original source of the "fear and ignorance -- ignorance and fear" quote that EC2 posted. Werewolf's posting there has shown familiarity with the Paranoia game. I believe he also frequents political, and could have picked up the "fear and ignorance" phrase from Tupac. Werewolf is my leading candidate for EC2 at the moment.

[Super Silver Haze]

I'm starting to realize that the EC is not likely to make huge mistakes that will give them away, and there seems to be a movement towards figuring out who isn't acting like their regular self. This kind of puts me at a disadvantage, since I haven't been around long enough to know what people are normally like. Nevertheless, here are my thoughts at the present time. I'm only going to discuss people who have been suggested or voted for this round, since I think we're more or less restricted to choosing among them anyway. Of course, I'll be adding on more people in future edits.

It seems that most of the strong EC candidates from earlier rounds have tried to clean up their act and start campaigning for their innocence. Unfortunately (and I think I'm kind of similar to Sunny in this regard), once someone actually DENIES being EC, I have a much harder time suspecting them. Yes, I know how silly that sounds.

Avi: Tried to get Gandalf lynched, ostensibly to help the ghosts. If someone wants to suggest a name, that's fine, but to suggest them and then immediately vote for them before anyone else says anything is a little suspicious. He said that all the students can do in the early stages is guess randomly - which is right in line with EC1's post on page 7. Apparently he's also posting far less than he usually does. However, when he theorized in a PM to the slayer that they were Mulan, he warned the slayer not to tell him who they were. If Mulan gets killed by the EC soon, Avi moves WAY up on my list. For now, he's still a possibility.

BC: If I understand this whole modelling thing correctly, he's claiming the students would be better off occasionally passing on their chance to lynch someone. I'm not saying it couldn't be true, but it seems very counterintuitive. Consider it from the standpoint of him being EC rather than having made a mistake in putting the model together. If he is EC, that's a positively fiendish way of hamstringing the students and buying himself a little more time in the game. I don't think he's EC right now, mainly because he hasn't really forced the students to do anything yet, but if he tries to make them skip a turn, it's not going to make him look too good.

Butters: He (allegedly) didn't start posting until page 22, after EC1 and EC2 had already posted several times. That would eliminate him from consideration if he's telling the truth there. I thought he was probably high on the EC's kill list due to his low post count, but the EC seems to have abandoned that strategy.

Cho Da: He appeared to be trying to force others to change their lynch votes by voting for them, although he's not targeting one particular person (there was a snafu/sunny "change your lynch vote or I vote for you" situation in the first two rounds). It was a weird kind of power trip thing that didn't seem to have any strategic purpose, and he earned himself a couple of stapler votes from others by doing this. Apparently he's not talking as much as he usually does. I don't yet think he's EC, but I'm watching him.

CubedBee: Seems more concerned about getting the stapler than anything else. I think most of his posts were pretty innocuous.

Gandalf: CTM at the claims he's not being as vocal as usual. He's posted to the thread more than enough, I think. Is trying to bait EC1 with the "dumb" and "gay" comments. Beyond that, he's answering people's questions, being helpful, but not really pushing strongly for any particular strategy. I think an EC member would be trying to influence the students' actions a little more. Also, he seemed genuinely upset when he PMed me about messing up his attempt to get the EC to reveal their identity to the sleeper. (I got the PM just a few minutes after I made my post, and the subject was "GRRRRRRRRRR". :) ) I don't think he's EC, I think he's a strong player, and it'd be a very bad idea to lynch him.

Kaput Shakur: Should have been taken out by the EC if they'd continued killing people with low post counts, but they changed their pattern for some reason. Could be because Kaput is EC, but more likely it's because the EC either thought 4sigma was the slayer or a greater threat as a living student. Avi's theory that Kaput is Cannonball and thus would have used "witless prattle" is interesting, but Avi might just be trying to deflect suspicion from himself. It was kind of suspicious when Rocky mentioned that Kaput hadn't posted to the thread in a while and Kaput popped on right away, implying that he's monitoring the thread but keeping quiet. Still, I think it'd be premature to call him EC.

Maine-iac: I am starting to think there is at least one EC member who is totally off our radar screen at this point. She hasn't said anything to make me think she is or isn't EC, but there was that dual-society comment by one of the EC members. Could be her just as well as anyone, so she makes it onto the list.

Sunny: That "Death to the students!" thing still bothers me a little - I still think forgetting which ID you're logged in under is a more likely mistake than writing "students" instead of "EC". She's been trying so hard to be helpful, though, and I don't think anyone really suspects her any more...

Ultimate Anyone: thing made this vote, and it wasn't really a serious one.

Will Durant: Mulan says "he doesn't seem himself" - I can't tell, but it doesn't seem like a great reason to lynch him. I don't think the fact that he wanted to lynch Sunny instead of Oblomov in the first round makes him EC. Oblomov was innocent, after all, and there were a lot more reasons to vote Sunny than there were to vote Ob at that point. CubedBee, though, pointed out that he seemed very defensive when accused of being EC, which is in contrast to everyone else's "go ahead" attitude. There's a chance he could be EC, I guess, but I think Mulan is after him for all the wrong reasons.

Leading EC candidates right now: Avi, Maine-iac, Will Durant
Probably innocent: Butters, Gandalf, Sunny

I would have strong objections to lynching Gandalf, but I wouldn't complain about anyone else.

[snafu]

CubedBee - Confirmed EC1 - active Memorial Weekend and post time pattern fairly consistent with EC2 (except for one day)

Will Durant - strong suspect for EC2 - Will is very^100 active in political as a frequent advesary to 2Pak shy of a case. 2Pac is the one that uses the fear and ignorance line in political. This is a line Will would be very familiar with. Will also has a posting pattern consistent with EC2 initially (posted 5/25 and 5/26 and was in the Rebel Forum over Memorial Weekend) and then EC2 stopped posting.

Werewolf - suspect for EC2 - active Memorial Weekend and also active on all days that EC2 posted.

RedSoxFan - suspect for EC2 - active Memorial Weekend and also active on all days that EC2 posted. Does NOT, however frequent political.

jadzia - slight suspect as EC2 - I saw jadzia logged in. Then jadzia dropped off, EC2 logged in and posted. Then EC2 logged out and jadzia logged back in. The only reason I do not consider her absolutely guilty is the language barrier that 4Sigma pointed out. I reviewed the posts by EC2 and the posts by jadzia and they do not seem to match in content.

Kaput Shakur - possible EC - similar reasoning as Will Durant - familiar with 2Pak from political. Fits posting time profile of EC2 except was not active over Memorial Weekend.

Macroman - suspect for EC2 - active Memorial Weekend and also active on all days that EC2 posted.

Ultimate Anyone? - suspect for EC2 - active Memorial Weekend and also active on all days that EC2 posted.

Avi - suspect - CubedBee's accusations, posting time similarities.

All Clear - very slight suspect - active over Memorial Weekend but did NOT post 5/24 or 5/25

Anonymouse - very slight suspect - active over Memorial Weekend but did NOT post 5/25.

Asynchronous - very slight suspect - active over Memorial Weekend but did NOT post 5/24

BC - innocent - model and strong strategy discussions with 4Sigma convince me.

Ebenezer Kohl - innocent - CAS student that I used to work with. At the start of the game he tried to start an alliance. He thinks survival is more important than getting the EC and finds some sort of honor in being around at the end. Considered my lynching as a sign that I had lost the game. Definitely NOT EC2, who originally posted with an SOA logo. Could be EC1 but I doubt it. If this guy were EC1, there would be a lot more posts from EC1 as EK cannot resist trash talking.

J.T. - no read

Jables - wild card - who the heck knows anything with Jables. He could be an innocent student and help the EC just for fun.

Kenshiro - no read

Maine-iac - uncharacteristically quite

Mulan - no read

Traina - no read

Rocky - Confirmed as innocent student
strong suspect for EC1 One and only absolute match for posting pattern same as EC1 over memorial weekend
Following EC1 into chat
Familiar with Sunny and chat
Lots of chatter but not manny votes/suggestions that weren't already bandwagons If Rocky is lynched and is not EC, however, then I would suspect a highly strategic thinker had set him up and several people (Gandalf, BC, Will Durant, and Avi) would suddenly move up on my list.

Butters - Confirmed innocent - I believe the out of town line.

Cho Da - confirmed innocent - I thought Sunny was EC. I convinced Cho Da and a couple of others and they started voting for Sunny. Then I reconsidered and still thought she was EC but thought the best strategy was to observe her to help identify who was her partner and potentially who was the sleeper. Cho Da disagreed and thought the best strategy once an EC was believed was to lynch them. His change your vote to Sunny or I vote for you was based on his belief that my casting of such strong aspersions on Sunny (unless followed up by a vote to lynch her) was very EC. While I disagree with his argument, it did seem to be made in good faith.

Gandalf - confirmed innocent (for now) - tried to set several traps for EC. Gave information on opening of PMs that added to profile of EC. If Rocky is NOT EC then would begin to highly suspect Gandalf.

Sunny - confirmed innocent - The "Death to the Students" debacle and overboard protestations of innocence indicate EC. But also just doesn't seem to play very well.

thing - confirmed innocent

[4sigma]

OK, I know I said 1 post per person. :oops: Gandalf sent me his innocent/guilty list. Due to my high regard for Gandalf's competence, I am posting his PM in this thread, even though it is marginally possible that he is EC. If Gandalf should subsequently become a ghost I shall delete this and let him post for himself.

[content deleted since Gandalf is now posting for himself]

[ahow]

I will add as I get time, just wanted to keep the number of threads down...

EBENEZER KOHL:
Does it strike anyone else as odd that he is being so malicious out there?
I doubt there would be any resistance to lynching you next.
Should we know a real EC (I think we do... Will)
Lynch meOK. :) if you like, I do! :D though you'll be lynching an innocent student. :P Who happens to be the sleeper EC.
There are a few other examples but I don't have much time. Anyway, what kind of strategy is this? Is he trying to get people to vote against him because of something he knows or has heard? Anyone have any PMs from him?

[Hagbard Celine]

To answer Ahow's question, EK could very well be EC. However, his strategy in this game fits in neatly with his personality. He sees no point in playing a game if he's not having fun. If he doesn't have a direct role in the game, he gets bored, thus he is trying to stir up controversy. Truth be told, this is why I've been particularly quiet this game. It was more out of apathy than anything else. Being an ordinary student just isn't a whole lot of fun!

I think Sunny is EC and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if her accomplice is Gandalf. This is why EC1 & EC2 haven't been posting much. Sunny made her goof in the beginning and Gandalf "suggested" that she stop using her EC handle very often. Then Gandalf keeps "baiting" the EC to post under their handles, to draw suspicion away from them.

I'll edit this with more info when I have some more time.

[Tim><]

To answer Ahow's question, EK could very well be EC. However, his strategy in this game fits in neatly with his personality. He sees no point in playing a game if he's not having fun. If he doesn't have a direct role in the game, he gets bored, thus he is trying to stir up controversy. Truth be told, this is why I've been particularly quiet this game. It was more out of apathy than anything else. Being an ordinary student just isn't a whole lot of fun!

I think Sunny is EC and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if her accomplice is Gandalf. This is why EC1 & EC2 haven't been posting much. Sunny made her goof in the beginning and Gandalf "suggested" that she stop using her EC handle very often. Then Gandalf keeps "baiting" the EC to post under their handles, to draw suspicion away from them.

I'll edit this with more info when I have some more time.

Hagbard = KP??? Check out my stapler vote.

[Leela]

Ok, I'm finally getting around to posting my list. This is from most suspicious to least suspicious.

Macroman - INNOCENT Since the slayer just verified that Macroman is not the Slayer, he has become much more suspicious to me because I was beginning to think he was the slayer, which would be a good cover for EC. He volunteered to be Sunny's proxy.

Werewolf - INNOCENT - There are numerous reasons, most of which have been elaborated on in other threads here. Plus, EC knows he's not the slayer now.

Will Durant - He's been pretty low key, which I believe is not his usual posting style. Plus EC has not taken the Will is Slayer bait.

RedSoxFan - He was more active in the last game. He didn't answer EK's question. Plus, a little bit of a gut feeling.

Kaput Shakur - INNOCENT His ties to political make him suspicious, as well as his eary voting history and posting pattern. He was at the top of my list, but cubedbee had him as a stapler pick. I can't decide if one of the EC would vote for the other or not. There are good reasons for both strategies.

Traina - Kind of a gut feeling. Has been mostly quiet until someone pointed it out, then she posted a lot in two days. Then someone else pointed out that this was suspicious, and she's not posting much anymore.

Ultimate Anyone? - Hasn't done anything to raise suspicions, which is suspicious. No really good reason for innocence either.

Ebenezer Kohl - He's probably innocent, but if he's not, he's got a really good strategy. If he's innocent, he may be a liability later for the students since he's somewhat of a loose cannon and doesn't want to follow the ghost committee all the time. Is it strange that he's started working with us more through PMs lately?

J.T. - No strong feelings either way. Kind of a gut feeling that she's more likely to be innocent than EC.

BC - EC Due to time spent on the model, he seems to be innocent.

Mulan - INNOCENT - She's been picking a lot of fights lately, which is not something EC would want to do.

All Clear - Has had some good strategy insights. Brought up that a sleeper could infiltrate the GC, which turned out to be wrong, but the EC wouldn't want to draw our attention to that.

jadzia - language barrier

Asynchronous - Good strategy insights in PMs. Volunteered to be lynched in first round.

[Rocky]

This is from a PM that I sent to the slayer a day or two before my death.

EC suspects (ranked in descending order of EC likelihood)

My original rankings (pre-death) in parentheses at the end of description.

1) Will Durant – his exchanges with Mulan seem contrived. (3)
2) RedSoxFan – not giving much to go on, just seems to be innocent to me (14)
3) Ebenezer Kohlx – too heavily against the ghost forum, IMO. I’m for more student involvement, but not to the detriment of winning the game. (2)
4) All Clear – originally, he seemed tuned in to the game and thinking like an innocent student. Now, I'm not so sure. A couple of his PM's (and their timing) makes him appear to be somewhat nervous of his fate. Still, not a strong case against him. (19)
5) jadzia - seems to be helping out the students cause, I'm growing more suspicious of jadzia in part b/c of her logging in and out around EC2's logging in and also since I think that it's very possible that Cubedbee (or a friend) could have typed the EC2 messages so as to not give away her language barrier. (16)
6) Asynchronous – same as Butters (17)


truly silent one this game.

2.5) Traina - gave a reason, not sure if she’s trying to hide. Has been more vocal since 6/10.


Sunny – way too many signs of guilt to ignore. Still very suspicious that she may be resigned to playing "Costello" to EC2's "Abbott". - Killed by EC, was innocent student (1)
Avi – several small clues that were already mentioned in the main thread.(4)
Kenshiro – not many posts, but most of them are about questionable strategies, IMO. I still don't agree with some of his suggestions to avoid the ghost forum as long as possible. This forces EC_Slayer to post slightly more often, and could lead to a small amount of additional information for the EC. (5)
Cho Da – why is he laying so low. No long strategy posts from him this game. - lynched by students, was innocent student (6)
Gandalf – still hard to tell, but he’s more defensive than last game. I did consider him less likely to be EC, but recent strategies do not seem as well thought out as I'd expect from him. Also, he stopped reviewing BC's model for no apparent reason. - killed by EC (7)
CubedBee – can’t pin a specific reason, just a general feeling. - WAS EC1(8)
Thing – somewhat more likely to be EC, IMO. No good reasons for that thought, though. - lynched by students, was innocent student(8.5)
Maine-iac – totally different posting frequency than last game. Why? (9)
Kaput Shakur – hard to tell, but he is another player without an avatar, so I consider him less likely. (10)
Jables – the “no internet connection” would kill him. (11)
Anonymouse – no good reasons, not giving much to go on (12)
BC – the “model” could be a ploy, but I think that it’s legit - WAS EC2 or sleeper (13)
Butters – he doesn’t post a lot, but brings up some decent ideas. Killed by Slayer, was innocent student (15)
Macroman – no great reasons (18)
Mulan – still don't see what she's after, but she's moved down from my original rankings based on information from this forum. (20)
Ultimate Anyone – is he really playing this game? Maybe this is the plain M&M from last game.(undecided)
Werewolf – does not ever seem to add anything to the discussions. Based on paranoia and posting patterns.(undecided)
J.T. – seems to just be the silent type in this game. I see her as less likely to be EC. (undecided)

[Gandalf]

1. Traina Still quieter than she should be.

2. RedSoxFan Very quiet, but as I recall he was very quiet last game too. Like Anonymouse, he’s very into the chess threads these days.

3. Will Durant: On my own, I think definitely innocent. He didn’t understand what was going on with Oblomov, and even PMed me about it. We have no reason to think he has played before, and seems like an innocent newbie to me. Mulan's observation that he is acting strange increases the chances he is EC.

4. Asynchronous: Before I got into the ghost forum, (if EC had spared me) he was going to be my next “quiet” candidate. Based on what I’ve seen here, he is our best ace in the hole. (This is under my assumption that BC was not EC2; even if BC was EC2 then Asynch is not especially likely to be the sleeper.)

OTOH, his going public with the Paranoia theory would have been a master stroke for an EC (probably the sleeper) to distance himself permanently from BC. If either happened to be lynched, the other was likely safe.

5. Ebenezer Kohl: Near 0% chance he is EC2. Slightly higher than average among the remaining players to be the sleeper, but BC was the sleeper IMO.

6. All Clear Probably innocent: uncertainty about the rules, and concern about the risks of admitting the sleeper to the ghost forum.

7. jadzia: I think innocent. I agree with 4Sigma about the language issue (with the observation that jadzia's English is far better than I would do in any other language). I think she willingly wanted to help the students by keeping track of results. (Possible sleeper, no special reason to think so.)

Butters: Proved to be innocent. Butters as EC1 might have made some sense, but if cubedbee and Butters, who is the brains of their operation? To use 4Sigma’s words for a phenomenon I originally reported as relevant: “His observation of Gandalf's error in posting under the wrong ID seems genuinely investigative.” Even if the EC had no immediate desire to get me lynched, it would have been to their advantage to create more suspicion than Butters did.


Avi: Proved to be innocent student I still see lots of reasons to think Avi is not EC2. He posted that EC1 and EC2 should keep quiet. Would an EC have done that? Why? EC2 would have tried to control EC1 by PM. It plays far better as a misguided attempt to make them talk more.

Would the EC have tried to frame him? Would it have occurred to them to try a sloppy frame?

He told Mr. P he would be away from the game; Mr. P posted it; I told Mr. P he really shouldn't have and he withdrew it. I told Avi and he reported it to the ghosts. Some rather unlikely actions if he is EC, I think. My guess is that even if Avi had explicitly asked Mr. P to post that he was away, Mr. P's reaction (especially to such a request from EC) would be "post it yourself; don't get me involved." OTOH, Mr. P would have been more likely to do it on his own volition for an innocent student (certainly not on his own volition for EC). Not because Mr. P would be taking sides, but because Mr. P would see it as trivial if not involving an EC.

His PM to the slayer asking if they are Mulan to be more careful about their posting.

Minor suggestions of guilt: I find his public choice of defense somewhat odd, and find it very odd that he has not appealed to the ghosts to save him. While he, as I, probably feels that being saved by the ghosts means likely death from the EC, it is much better than having the students waste a turn. I knew that all along. He has finally brought it up publicly, but has not appealed to the ghosts.

Kenshiro: Proved innocent. Probably innocent. Fairly good strategy proposals, to the extent the proposals are weak they are consistent with having more fun, a tact he took last game.


Maine-iac Proved innocent. She does not seem to be following the game as closely as I would expect. 4Sigma thinks she does not fit the profile of EC2. There are differences. Obviously, Maine-iac is female. She participates in political, but not a lot. She could (probably) have kept B^3 fairly quiet at first, but have lost control of him now that he’s dead. Neutral, leaning toward EC.

Sunny: Proved innocent. 1. We're envisioning a cautious EC2 who reined B^3 in. Does Sunny fit?
2. Sunny seems like such a loose cannon. Would she not have done something far worse than saying "Death to the Students"? (Just late yesterday afternoon, in the ghost forum, I wrote "protecting the sleeper". I had turned off my computer and was about to walk out the door, when I realized "I wrote sleeper." I restarted the computer and edited it, before anyone else had posted.)
3. Her posting pattern matching B^3's is an indication of the influence he had over her. In most cases, there seems to be no benefit from the matching pattern.
4. I felt no urgency from Sunny or B^3 to lynch me. Sunny tried, but would have done more if an EC head were on the block as an alternative.
5. If I recall correctly, she gave Macroman her proxy for the lynching where she and I were both at risk (before ghosts nominated anyone), even though Macroman had already come out voting for Cho Da. I don't think she would have feared he would vote her proxy to lynch her if she were one of two ghost nominees, but she wouldn't have given up that control when Macroman could still influence the ghosts. (Edited to confirm: yes she did, and he immediately voted it for Cho Da. Probably in conformance with her PMed instructions.).

thing Proved innocent. Quite suspicious, especially the offer to be lynched instead of Avi. Originally I thought his comments in Dictionary! Suggested innocence, but others had already been joking about the game in that thread, so I no longer consider that significant.

Jables: Proved innocent. I’m leaning toward innocent. I don’t think a Jables/B^3 pair could have been as quiet as EC1 or EC2. Or, if they could have been, that they would want to play the game that way. They would have been more in our faces, even if it lowered their chances of winning.

OTOH, Jables was one of only two who posted in the interval when EC2 opened my PM. In addition, he did not post during the time frame when EC2's PM was sitting in my outbox unopened.

werewolf Proved innocent. I agree with the consensus that werewolf is very suspicious.


BC: Proved EC. I like 4Sigma’s reasons for BC’s innocence. Also, I can’t believe he would have tried to approach both BC and me with his model if he had been EC. Finally, his reasons for wanting to lynch me (that I showed insufficient interest in the model, a situation compounded by 4Sigma’s death) seem very reasonable for an innocent student.


Mulan: Proved innocent. Her rambling is suspicious, but I don't think an EC would draw so much attention to herself. Mild point in her favor is that she has submitted suspect lists to us.

3. (of 12) Kaput Shakur Proved innocent. We don’t know much about him: he could be an experienced veteran lying low. I don’t buy at all the theory that EC were hitting low post counts. They hit Leela because she seemed clearly innocent. (Or, as clear as anyone to be innocent.) Some of the more recent PMs make me think innocent, but some of his public posts seem a little odd.

6. (of 12) Macroman Proved innocent. No strong opinions about Macroman. Leaning toward innocent.

1. of 10 Anonymouse: Proved innocent. Very quiet, but quiet last time too. EK seems convinced he is innocent, based on some EK-Anonymouse PM exchange whose actual contents I don’t know.

OTOH, he was one of only two players who posted in the interval when EC2 picked up my PM. He did post, without opening it, in the interval when my PM to EC2 was sitting in EC2's inbox. (There's some doubt as to when the PM would have reached EC2's inbox.)

4. of 10 Ultimate Anyone: Proved innocent. [size=6]Probably innocent, mainly because his actions seem totally consistent with bored but innocent student. Nothing specific.

8. of 10 J.T. Proved innocent. Originally quieter than last game, when she probably has no special reason to be quiet now (unless she is the slayer again; did Mr. P change his random number seed?) I found the reasons for people that she posted which took the lynching heat off me to be rather weak, but appreciate them. Recently has made some helpful suggestions.

She just PMed the slayer (before we hit BC) that EC is hitting females to try to hit the slayer. That makes it extremely unlikely she is EC, IMO, as it would now look extremely suspicious to us if EC stops hitting females before hitting her (unless EC successfully hits the female slayer first).

The above paragraph had me rate JT at #12 of 12. Surprise: EC did not hit a female (hit Macroman). I suppose the Maine-iac and Mulan pattern was just coincidence, but it is also possible an EC JT realized what a bind she would be in if the EC continued to hit females then stopped before her.

The above paragraph had me move JT to #6 of 10. BC's voting pattern, as explained to me by 4Sigma, drops her to #8 of 10.

[Sunny]

Ultimate Anyone? - somehow suspect him too. Just because of one reason: one time he did not go by what the students have decided to do. Let by EK, I think we were going for Mulan for someone. He was the only one who didn't do it.
Kaput Shakur - think he's probably innocent, not participating very much because it's his first time playing and he doesn't know the game well enough to post pad here?
BC - Suspect for me: how he's analyzed my death and pm'd me a bit after he came back from his short "vacation". And it just seems to me his pm now is just trying to earn brownie points with the ghosts.
All Clear - probably innocent. He is a fellow c3 exam taker. I think he's been logical and consistent and trying to be helpful so far.
Will Durant - still not sure why people suspect him. Not sure. Think he's probably innocent.
Ebenezer Kohlx - probably innocent
J.T - probably innocent
RedSoxFan - probably innocent
Anonymouse - probably innocent. seems to me just lacking interest. However, it can be a ECish behavior
Asynchronous - probably innocent, until I see further evidence indicating otherwise.
jadzia - probably innocent, until I see further evidence indicating otherwise.
Traina - probably innocent, because of my interaction with him
Jables - probably innocent

[Butters]

OK, here are my thoughts on who is most likely to be EC.

Top suspects:

Will Durant - He's active in political, and I agree with Mulan that his posting habits in this thread appear a bit odd.

RedSoxFan - He's been awfully quiet this game, and his recent vote for jadzia seemed like he was just jumping in to keep from being quiet without offering any help. Has he made any noteworthy comments this game?

Traina - I like what All Clear mentioned about Traina, and I agree that she seems quiet except when her name is brought up.


Could Go Either Way:

Ebenezer Kohlx - If he is EC, he's using a very different strategy from what we would expect. If he's one of the last three, I don't know how he would expect to survive. I think he should be kept alive for at least the next round or two.

Ultimate Anyone (staked - innocent), Anonymouse (lynched - innocent), J.T. (slain - innocent) - They've been too quiet to read, which makes them suspicious to me.

Most Likely Innocent:

Asynchronous - I have to agree with the comments on his pointing the finger at BC. I don't find Asynchronous to be suspicious at the moment. If he is EC, he's fooled me.

jadzia - The obvious English problems seem to be a good reason to think that she didn't post as EC2, but she could still be the sleeper if it wasn't BC. She seems to have a good excuse for not posting as much recently, assuming she's telling the truth.

All Clear - I really don't think he's EC. He has pointed out rules that would be in the student's interest, and he's drawn attention to himself. I guess the complaint about Mr. P not naming BC as sleeper or EC2 could be an elaborate hoax to convince us of his innocence, but I'm not leaning that way right now. Plus, he has lobbied for Traina to be executed for a while. Would a true EC focus his attention on one person for so long? It seems especially strange since Traina has never been a high target on anyone's list but his. I focused on Avi all the time and got staked by the slayer, so his focus on Traina does not make him immune from being killed.

[Avi]

I do not have opinions on a number of the survivors, I will edit whan I feel I have better hunches/data.

Ebenezer Kohlx: Either an annoying SOB, or one of the most brilliant EC we have ever had. I can find assupmtions and issues with most of his reasonings, although having been perhaps the most direct result of said "reasoning" I am undoubetedly biased.

Will Durant: Not enough data yest, other than being uncharacteristically quiet.

J.T.: Ditto

Ultimate Anyone: Quiet enough to be non-existant. If UA is not the slayer, I would have very strong suspicions.

Jables:Can lightning strike twice? While the "cubicle" issue may be a convenient excuse, I tend to doubt it as a) if we do not know ALL of his pseudonyms, the lack of posting under "Jables" is meaningless and b) workking in an open area myself, it's not that difficult to keep multiple windows open and work/post simultaneously. Only issue in defence, whatever works to hide EC also serves to protect slayer.

Asynchronous:

Anonymouse:

All Clear:

jadzia:

Traina:

RedSoxFan:

BC: Another one who attracted my interest early. BC has been rather quiet on this board UNTIL this game. While his mathematical prodigousness may have piqued his curiosity to the point that he decided to quadruple his appearence, it bears noticing. Also, the early PM about the model - which included the throwaway line at the end about asking for personal opinins as to the EC, Something that an EC would want to know much more than a slayer.

Another issue that I just discovered. This is quoted in the PM thread:
http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=31637&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=57[/url]]Sunny wrote:
BC wrote:
Sunny wrote:

Why Cho Da, though? I would think Rocky and Avi are more likely. And even though I don't suspect Karma as much now, I'd still put him up before Cho Da. And Mulan. And I can go on and on...

Why Cho Da?


Truthfully, I don't have a good reason for Cho Da except that he/she was the first individual to point a finger at me.

In the interest of full disclosure: when you didn't respond to my offer on the model, I sent a message to EC_Slayer saying that I was beginning to suspect you and Avi (who also didn't respond and, based on past experience, has the interest and knowledge to have helped). But I'm not suspicious enough of Avi to change from Cho Da, at least not yet...


Yeah, I was suspecting you too.

Well, there can only be two EC's, and a sleeper, whom let's just say is Mulan. So it's either Gandalf and Rocky, Gandalf and Rocky, or Gandalf and Avi. If you ever get to go over to the ghost forum, that's kinda what I've come down to...

Funny, I did respond to BC. Although perhaps not immediately. But it does seem strange......

The instincts rule again as BC was EC :burn:
Kaput Shakur:Originally, one of my prime suspects. Based on certain comments and gut feelings, I believed that EC2 is not a neophyte to this, but an experienced RF'r. The ghosts feelings as to political only bolster this. I am of the belief that KS is a pseudonym for another RF'r in reponse to Tupes. This has always placed him high on my list. However, the most recent PM (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=31637&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=141) to Gandalf, if genuine, would seem to contra-indicate that slightly.

Macroman
Werewolf:If sunny is correct about his posting to point at me and then deleting it - it raises suspicions.
Mulan: Fanatically single-minded about Will, almost broken-record like. Not much other independant analysis or ideas. Why not?

[Mulan]

I haven't done a lot of analysis since my work load is very heavy right now.

Remaining players, my thoughts:

Will Durant Has been my number one choice from nearly the beginning. At first just to tease him, but when no real response, I started to think I was on to something. My suspicions would make him EC2 since I've suspected him since before Cubedbee's death. The fact that the plan with Karma didn't work makes sense if Will is EC2.
Ebenezer Kohl Would be a fantastic gambit to make himself so much of a target....
Kaput Shakurconfirmed as innocent student
Macroman confirmed as innocent student

The next few I have no particular thoughts about, they are all fairly quiet players.
b]Ultimate anyone[/b]
Asynchronous
RedSox Fan
Anonymouse probably innocent
JT probably innocent
All Clear very innocent (I have a theory I won't post)

[Casper]

Macroman here:

I'll modify [delete content from] this post and repost under my userid when I get full access:

Ebenezer Kohl- -goes without saying is my prime suspect- From a point of strategy we need to eliminate EK before the endgame even if he is innocent. At some point the students will insist on lynching EK. This is only really bad if EK turns out to be the slayer. EK seems to be the most prominent student who has been protected but not hit by the EC. Gandalf, myself, Mulan and Sunny were all slain by the EC after being protected by a ghost choice.

Will Durant - has been quiet. Not sure of other evidence
J.T. - has been uncharacteristically quiet
Ultimate Anyone - Someone said "Is he playing this game?"
Asynchronous - strong presumption of innocence due to valuable ghost assistance Anonymouse - no read yet
All Clear - strong presumption of innocence due to pointing out some rule irregularity in a way unfavorable to the EC.
jadzia - suspicious actions thought to have language barrier may cause misunderstandings - may be important to eliminate before endgame if we can't communicate with her effectively.
Traina - no read yet
RedSoxFan - low activity is suspicious, but we are now just getting to the more interesting part of the game IMO. Also RSF does have a lot going on.