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Leela
06-21-2004, 04:41 PM
MAYBE EC OR SLEEPER:
Will Durant
Avi
Ebenezer Kohl
Traina
Jadzia

UNSURE:
BC
Maine-iac
Ultimate anyone
Asynchronous
All Clear
Werewolf
Kaput Shakur

INNOCENT:
Jables
RedSox Fan
Kenshiro
Anonymouse
JT
Macroman
Mulan

Leela
06-21-2004, 11:30 PM
From most likely to least likely... (Sorry I don't have much reasoning)

Avi - Which of the scenarios about CubedBee's claim is correct?
Mulan
Ultimate Anyone? - Really only "high" on my list because he's my stapler pick :duh:
Kaput Shakur
Macroman
BC
All Clear
Maine-iac
Will Durant
Ebenezer Kohlx
J.T
RedSoxFan
Werewolf
Anonymouse
Asynchronous
jadzia
Kenshiro
Traina
Jables - I *know* I'm an innocent student :)

Please note that I've PM-ed this only to you, feel free to share with the rest of the ghost committee...

snafu
06-22-2004, 02:23 PM
I don't really have any strong feelings as to guilt or innocence, because I have not been able to follow the game properly.

However, these are the ones that I think are innocent purely based on CubedBee's stapler picks.

Kaput Shakur
Will Durant
Mulan

My suggestions for Maine-iac and RSF were purely based on an appeal from Sunny. I hope she'd been paying more attention to the game than I've been. But I really don't know if they are any more likely to be guilty.

Hope this helps

Leela
06-23-2004, 04:05 PM
Identical message sent to 4Sigma, Sunny, and EC_Slayer:

The ghosts asked for a list, so I made one. I don't really have good reasons for why some people are higher than others, just my thoughts and suspicions...

Kenshiro: Seems like a new identity. Also, AFTER 4Sigma mentioned that the EC could kill someone with a proxy to kill votes, he asked Sunny to be his proxy. This provided a 3-for-1 opportunity. The timing just seems suspicious to me.

jadzia: Seems like a new identity.

Ebenezer Kohl(x?): 'Nuff said.

Mulan, Maine-iac, Asynchronous, Anonymouse, Werewolf (in that order, but close enough to be indistinguishable, except possibly for Mulan's fixation with Will Durant).

All Clear, J.T., RedSoxFan, Jables, Will Durant (in that order, but close enough to be indistinguishable; besides, Mulan might be right - even a blind squirrel gets a nut sometimes, as my dad used to say).

Ultimate Anyone, Traina, Macroman, Kaput Shakur (in that order, but close enough to be indistinguishable).

BC (well, duh... and if I WAS either the original EC2 or the sleeper, this is STILL where I'd put myself, so you can draw no useful inferences from this).

Leela
06-23-2004, 04:06 PM
Do we want to work on putting together a "master list"?

4sigma
06-23-2004, 04:41 PM
I do think we should put together a master list. Probably makes sense to see ghosts and students separately, and combined. Ghosts may want to arrange their posts in the "Summary" thread in order to make them into a ranking list.

snafu
06-25-2004, 09:43 AM
1. RedSoxFan susp
2. Werewolf susp
3. Anonymouse susp
4. Ebenezer Kohlx susp
5. Jables susp
6. Macroman susp
7. BC -innocent
8. All Clear innocent
9. Asynchronous innocent
10. jadzia innocent
11. Ultimate Anyone innocent
12. J.T. innocent
13. Kaput Shakur innocent
14. Mulan innocent
15. Will Durant innocent

Here is my list. I don't have any evidence, cause I find it very difficult to keep up with the game from work. However, I did do some quick searches on the players, and from their posts, this is the best ranking I could come up with.

My 2 top picks: RSF is hardly posting at all, compared to last game. Werewolf, I'm not buying the too innocent role. I mentioned before, why I thought KS, Mulan and WD were innocent.

4sigma
06-25-2004, 09:17 PM
I must say I'm a bit disappointed that there's very little reasoning provided in the above lists. Jables and Mulan provide none whatsoever. BC and Traina at least have a bit of thought behind theirs, though for many of their rankings there is no particular explanation.

I think it is too early to be compiling any of these ranking lists, until we get some "better quality data."

4sigma
06-29-2004, 07:34 AM
A list from All Clear, and with some pretty good reasons, to boot.Feel free to forward this to another ghost, or to post in the private forum up there. In order, from those I would most like to see lynched to those I would least like to see (the same as me listing them from "most likely EC" to "least likely EC", except in the cases of Werewolf and EK, since I think there are reasons that perhaps they should be lynched even if they are not EC, and so I added a bit of "more likely EC" to each of them. Without those added reasons, I think those should be just a little lower down on my list)-

Traina- She, as someone else described so well, is a "lurker", the type that doesn't say anything, except when her name is brought up. I remember not reading much from her, and then someone mentioned how quiet Traina had been- lo and behold, Traina posts 4 times that day, and 3 times on the following day. I then mention that I am voting for her due to this odd activity, and then she goes quiet once more, posting (at best) sporadically. This is the type of behavior I might expect from an EC character, who is trying his/her hardest to not get a vote from anyone.

RedSoxFan- As I will point out later on, I got a pm from E. Kohl, asking me to ask RSF something. When I declined and E. Kohl asked RSF himself, RSF did not respond. RSF is quite active in other threads, but doesn't say much here, or far less than I would have expected, and far less than last game. That is the style of a Cubedbee from last game- one who changes his posting habits so as to try to (what he thinks is) blend in with the others. If this is the case, he has not fooled me.

E. Kohl- I don't know. I posted that I don't think an EC would cause so much friction between himself and the ghosts, but he may just be doing that because he knows we would think this. It is the same logic I gave when I posted that I did not want to vote for Avi (though I would have if necessary- I will always follow the ghosts' suggestions if needed for lynching), that I didn't think someone would be causing so much trouble if he/she were really EC. I like E. Kohl's idea of bold voting rather than suggesting (as long as we don't ever get near lynching anyone before the ghosts' can talk), since that may put pressure on others to respond (as it did to Traina), and liked his "swing voting" idea a bit, since that put pressure on lots of people. Still, other things that he says make me wonder, and I definitley DO NOT like his idea of forcing you guys to choose between the top two vote getters. I don't mind at all if you don't tell us the formula you use, and just throw out a name after discussing everything. I find this game a bit boring more because of the long waits, and not because of anything to do with getting a name to lynch that we have not voted for. So I put E. Kohl as my third name, since I would like to see him lynched more than anyone below his name, even though, in terms of who I belive to be EC, he would probably be a couple of spots lower.

Werewolf- The next batch of people are pretty close together, and Werewolf gets to go first because the ghosts already confirmed he was not the slayer, meaning there is one less target for the EC to hit, to try to find the slayer, as long as he is around. I see nothing in specific to cause me to think he is EC, or less likely to be EC.

Kaput Shakur- He/She is someone that I see no reason to suspect in either way. However, his name was originally made to mock 2pac Shakur, and I would think he posts a nice amount in political. If he was an innocent student, I would have thought he would use his regular posting habits here as well, talking a lot, definitley more than what I have seen from him. I know this isn't much of a reason, but it puts him/her just slightly above the next group of people.

J.T., Ultimate Anyone, Macroman, Mulan, Will Durant, Anonymouse- none have done anything to set them aside too much either way (to more or less likely EC), though I put Mulan near the "more innocent side" because of her constant "picking fights" with others, which I don't think an EC would do. Will Durant is near the end for the same reason. Anonymouse didn't post much at the start, and when Gandalf mentioned that he is likely to be killed quite soon if he does that, he still didn't change his posting habits much, making me think he is not an EC, scared of being killed.

Jadzia may be EC, but if she is, she has done a good job of hiding the fact that she does not speak english very well, when posting as EC1 or EC2. I was thinking at the start that if she is at all smart (and being an actuary, I would think that she is), if she were EC, she would have someone else look at all the things she types as EC before they are posted. While this may be the case, as it stands now, I see no reason to think this, and am leaning toward believing her to be a student.

Asynchronous- He/she offered to be lynched in the first round, when we were looking for someone to lead our ghost forum. I think such a strategy (you offered to do this as well) is awful, as we will eventually get strong ghosts anyway, and there is no reason to lynch an obviously innocent student. That is the way I currently feel about Asynchronous- an obviously innocent student, who offered to be lynched in the first round to help the ghost forum.

BC- This is a combination of the fact that he is helping the students, figuring out with his model our strong chances of winning, and the fact that by making this model, he knew others would be talking to him a lot, probably becoming suspicious of him on occasion. I don't post much in general on the RF, but if I did, and wanted to stay alive in this game, I wouldn't be making models, and sending them to everyone. I remain of the opinion that EC people don't want to "stand out in a crowd," and I think BC did that here.

All Clear- Of course I know that I am just a student, but if this helps in my defense, if the ghosts are considering me, I got quite a few private messages from others telling me how they were sure I was just a student. Probably the biggest selling point I have is that I brought up the possible problem of a sleeper infiltrating the Ghost Forum. Of course, no such problem can exist, but thinking like a student, I didn't realize that. Gandalf didn't either, by the way, so it was not an obvious thing that I missed.

Leela
06-29-2004, 12:52 PM
I'm sending this now (with copy to EC_Slayer) since I have the time to fire it off.

I think you guys have done a lot more analysis than I have at this point, so I'll just share where I put people based on suspicions for EC2:

Highest suspects:
BC - I am suspicious of him for 2 reasons. 1) I think he is the most likely to have known the Paranoia quote ("ignorance and fear"); his Galaxy Quest quote was in a similar vein. I also think he's using the model as an alibi to hide his guilt.
Mulan - Play has been very suspicious, especially her apparent lack of knowledge regarding the rules. Seems like she was playing "dumb"
Will Durant - No particular reason, but his detached playing of the game makes me suspicious.
Macroman - Somewhat suspicious. 2nd most likely to have known the Paranoia quote.
Werewolf - Whether or not there's much suspicion of him, the fact that you previously offered him up proves he's not the slayer and establishes enough doubt that we can't trust him and the EC won't kill him. He has to go before the end game.

Medium suspects:
Ultimate Anyone - No strong suspicions either way.
All Clear - May be "lying low" though his excuses do hold water.
RedSoxFan - Has been fairly quiet (moreso than last game), which is curious.
Kaput Shakur - Haven't seen much out of him, which is curious.

Low suspects:
jadzia - Agree with 4sigma that he/she may be a canadian speaker and therefore doesn't fit the mold of EC2.
J.T. - Doesn't fit the mold for EC2
Anonymouse - PLay has been similar to last game.
Traina - Don't think she fits the EC2 mold.

Special cases:
Ebenezer Kohlx - I don't trust him, and I dread having him around at the endgame. However, you guys protected him, so either he's the slayer, or you have pretty strong proof of his innocence. (or you were trying to bait the EC into killing him...)
Asynchronous - I know I'm innocent, but I can only offer you the arguments that I assume 4sigma has passed on - support for the ghosts and my offer to sacrifice myself at the beginning to establish the ghost council.

Note that I'm not sure there's much, if any, basis for suspecting who is or isn't the sleeper (if there even is one living). To me, the best approach would be to concentrate efforts on finding EC2, and once that's done, it will be clear whether or not there is a sleeper. At that point, it will pretty much be a fresh-start witch hunt unless we can cajole the sleeper to post. (Have we reminded Mr. Penguin to establish an EC_Sleeper account?)

I really think that the current process is dysfuntional. The ghosts have some top suspects, but are forced to pick lesser ones since that's who the students are offering up. I think a few things are in order:

1) I'd prefer it if the ghosts could nominate anyone. I think EK is the only opponent who would not go along with that (though others might do so grudgingly).
2) I think any nominated candidate from a prior round should roll forward into future rounds. In this case, I mean Werewolf should also be eligible, since we have already exposed our opinion of him to EC2.
3) Perhaps the ghosts should suggest a name or two for discussion this next round. I agree that getting too many names out there is dangerous (since they become "not the slayer"), but as long as the students appear to be controllable, the ghosts could even offer up truly innocent students (and even the slayer) as red herrings, in the spirit of cooperation and dialog.

Thanks for your hard work. Given the number of posts claimed in the ghost forum, I'd venture to say you're working even harder than the living students (you're certainly staying more on-task).

Gandalf
06-30-2004, 10:24 PM
Dearest Ghost Committee, we living students get bored in these dry spells.

What better time to send the GF and the slayer your guilt/innocence lists. With all the reasons that you can come up with for your suspects. It's fun, educational, and a rip-roaring good time for all.


1. EK
2. EK
3. EK
4. EK
...... 99. EK

Please choose EK..... I admit I don't have a good reason, it's just a hunch while I'm otherwise clueless... Of course he is too....

Rocky
06-30-2004, 11:31 PM
Dearest Ghost Committee, we living students get bored in these dry spells.

What better time to send the GF and the slayer your guilt/innocence lists. With all the reasons that you can come up with for your suspects. It's fun, educational, and a rip-roaring good time for all.


1. EK
2. EK
3. EK
4. EK
...... 99. EK

Please choose EK..... I admit I don't have a good reason, it's just a hunch while I'm otherwise clueless... Of course he is too....

:tup:

Macroman = Rocky? :-?
Neither have avatars :D :o :D

Mulan
07-01-2004, 11:46 AM
People don't seem to realize I'm dead.

Leela
07-01-2004, 11:53 AM
People don't seem to realize I'm dead.

All of the lists before Macromans were sent before you posted your death scene.

4sigma
07-03-2004, 04:08 PM
Hi !

Here's my list... I must admit that for now, I'm still pretty much lost when it comes to find the EC...

Anyway, here it goes :

Will Durant Same reason as Asynchronous gave in the forum : he didn't help much, even though he participate a lot in other places of the forum.

Traina Same thing as for Will Durant + Since she gave her proxy to EK, she was not part of the lynching for BC.



Ebenezer Kohl : His recent behaviour (reconciliation with the GC) might be a way to be keep alive... A lot of people wanted to lynch him before that. Now that the last EC member has to survive, he might want to be friendly with the GC.

All Clear He seems to have a lot of analysis done, but he didn't provide anything tangible there. Maybe he gave you a lot of infos ? (I hope so!)


As for RedSoxFan, Ultimate Anyone ?, Anonymouse and J.T. I don't have any idea !!! None of them seem really more suspicious than the other !


Asynchronous : If he had been Evil, I don't think he would have raised the reasoning about BC... None of them was strong targets, so it is unlikely Async would have done it to fool us about him.

Jadzia : For obvious reasons, I know I'm innocent. The main reason why I didn't participated as much as I would have like so far is because I'm study a lot too much (Even thought I know Avi think there is no such a thing).
The beginning of my intensive English course + my math course was on june the 20.

4sigma
07-06-2004, 05:36 PM
A couple of random thoughts. Did not rank players, as basically I have two categories in my mind - (1) reason to suspec (2) no reason to suspect

1. Ebenezer Kohl - annoying as hell. I used to think that his play style was providing a valuable alternative perspective. Now, I just think he's a distraction. I still don't think he could actually be EC, but it's certainly possible he's playing a "hide in plain sight" strategy
RedSoxFan - has been laying really low; most recent posts were 7/3, 6/30 (several) and 6/25. This despite extensive posting elsewhere in the RF

2.
J.T.
Asynchronous
All Clear
jadzia
Traina
Ultimate Anyone

Sorry this is not more helpful, but really I don't have a clue.

4sigma
07-06-2004, 06:00 PM
Hey, just catching up after being unavailable most of the weekend. I read on page 139 that I'm supposed to send a ranking of players. Here goes, from most suspicious to least suspicious:

Will Durant
jadzia
EK
Asynch
All Clear
Traina
JT
UA
RedSoxFan

I think that's everyone.

Thanks,
RSF

4sigma
07-07-2004, 09:01 PM
This forum is doing wonders for my post count. I think my post count is up 80% since the start of this game.
Here is my updated list ! But I think that unless participation from the alive students increase rapidly, we're better to pass to avoid giving any hint to the EC.

Will Durant : Posts a lot everywhere but in this thread (yesterday, 0/12)
RedSoxFan : I have found nothing helpful from his part on the thread !!!
Traina : The point All Clear made in public : (mostly that she never posted much of substance, except for the one day where people were mentioning that she and others might be EC because they never wrote anything, and then she wrote I think 4 posts that day, three the next day, and when I mentioned that this was weird that she is suddenly posting now, she stopped her newfound posting habit).
All Clear : His implication in the game is consistent with that elsewhere, and I would find unlikely that the sleeper or EC2 would be the one insisting on knowing which one BC was.
Ebenezer Kohl : He seems to collaborate a lot with you... Or is he playing with you (doubtful, but still possible)
Asynchronous : I still think him pointing out BC makes Asynchronous innocent.
Jadzia

Avi
07-07-2004, 09:36 PM
This forum is doing wonders for my post count. I think my post count is up 80% since the start of this game.

Another convert to the dark side :burn:

Gandalf
07-07-2004, 11:36 PM
KP must really regret having started that hoax; others get credit for his posts.