BtPotEC Ghost Forum: Suspect for Round 8 Lynching

[4sigma]

The slayer has slain Werewolf. Alas, he is not EC.

[Avi]

I think we have been too focused on the same candidates, and I am especially leery of those whose choices have anything to do with Caspar the ghost meets Saturday Night Fever, as my current state demonstrates.

I suggest we start the frenzy with Ultimate Anyone, JT, and anonymouse, and, if unconvinced, suggest EK.

[snafu]

As suggested in the "The ghost suggestion process, a potential revision." thread

Actually I think if the EC doesn't take out EK then our course of action is pretty simple for this round. Time to give up on the Karma Police thing as it doesn't seem to be having any effect.

Assumptions:
Slayer takes out Werewolf who is one of our short-list candidates
EC doesn't take out EK, which is suspisious in itself
Will Durant is no longer protected as part of our Karma Police gambit, which doesn't seem to be panning out

I suggest we make our suggestion early and announce a Steel Cage Death Match between EK and Will Durant. Listing evidence for and against each one and let the students decide. It should lead to a pretty fun round. Slayer can then take out the survivor.

Currently weighing in on the issue
snafu for
Leela for
Sunny for
Maine-iac for
ahow for
Gandalf against
Rocky for
Avi for
Hagbard Celine for

Not yet weighed in
4Sigma
Butters
Cho Da
Jables
Kenshiro
Super Silver Haze
Thing

[4sigma]

I think we should be prepared for the contingency of whether EC takes out EK this round or not. He is the most obvious person we are protecting at the moment:

Case I: EC takes out EK. I think that the nominees are wide-open at this point. We can use this to say that since EK was clearly innocent, now is the time to try his strategy in earnest. Encourage a real round of swing voting. Make it clear that we don't want any single candidate to ever collect more than, say, 4 votes, before we decide on a nominee. I think it is likely that if we could get the students to do this, we would be able to step in and hit one of our high-profile targets like Kaput Shakur, Will Durant, etc.

Case II: EC does not take out EK. This makes EK look quite a favorite to be EC. But I think it is right that we should exercise restraint for a round. EC has found that when we protected Avi and then EC didn't hit him, we hit Avi for them. So in order to make EC take out EK, we may have to spare him one more round. I expect that he will get a few votes again and we can protect him again, which should paint a bull's-eye on him for EC. If EC again fails to hit him then I think we just take him out the following round regardless.

[snafu]

I think we should be prepared for the contingency of whether EC takes out EK this round or not. He is the most obvious person we are protecting at the moment:

Case I: EC takes out EK. I think that the nominees are wide-open at this point. We can use this to say that since EK was clearly innocent, now is the time to try his strategy in earnest. Encourage a real round of swing voting. Make it clear that we don't want any single candidate to ever collect more than, say, 4 votes, before we decide on a nominee. I think it is likely that if we could get the students to do this, we would be able to step in and hit one of our high-profile targets like Kaput Shakur, Will Durant, etc.

Case II: EC does not take out EK. This makes EK look quite a favorite to be EC. But I think it is right that we should exercise restraint for a round. EC has found that when we protected Avi and then EC didn't hit him, we hit Avi for them. So in order to make EC take out EK, we may have to spare him one more round. I expect that he will get a few votes again and we can protect him again, which should paint a bull's-eye on him for EC. If EC again fails to hit him then I think we just take him out the following round regardless.

And under Case II, who do we want to take out this round?

Nevermind - moot point

[4sigma]

OK, Case II does not apply. Too bad that we lost Mulan.

EC is clearly trying to hit the slayer with their last 2 picks. They've been hitting the quiet folks (Maine-iac, Mulan).

I find it interesting that EC hasn't targeted the 2 "slayer" names we gave them in the KP hoax. I believe this means that they have seen through the hoax. It is possible that we didn't execute it well enough, but it is also quite possible that the hoax failed because either Anonymouse or Will Durant is EC2 or the sleeper. Because of this, Anonymouse and Will Durant are now moving up my target list, particularly as the sleeper.

I am warming to getting Will Durant nominated soon, since he does have several indications as EC2 and would also explain why EC has not bitten on the KP hoax. Gandalf, how compelling do you think is the evidence for his innocence?

[Rocky]

If EC again fails to hit him then I think we just take him out the following round regardless.

There's a lot of "if we zig, then they'll zag" being assumed here. The EC has no incentive to take out EK. He's probably got them convinced (as best as he can) that he's not the slayer.

We've heard the students speak out against EK, so I think that we owe it to them to act on it. Who knows what we might hit in the process...

[4sigma]

KP just sent me an insightful PM. If we want to hit Will Durant or Anonymouse, the way to do it may be to use the slayer rather than our lynching. That way the GC appears to still be protecting the "slayer."

[Rocky]

Do you want to post the PM?

Does having the slayer kill one of those 2 give the ruse any more credibility? I agree with 4sigma's earlier post in that I don't think that the EC is buying it.

My inclination is to let the slayer basically do as they please. Unless we have very compelling reasons to recommend.

However, maybe KP's PM will make the advantages of using the slayer's turns for these kills more obvious.

[Gandalf]

Gandalf, how compelling do you think is the evidence for his innocence?
He is very low on my list of possible EC2, but I am not violently opposed. He could always be the sleeper, though I think EK is better for that.

[ahow]

WELCOME TO ESPN FIGHT NIGHT!!!

LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!

Your fighters are...

In the left corner, EEEEEEEEEBENEZER KOOOOOOOOOOHL!!!

In the right corner, WIIIIIIIIIILL DDDDDDDDUUUUUURANT!!!!

"Ok, guys, let's keep it clean. No hitting below the belt, and listen to my calls."

DING DING DING!!!

[Mulan]

Can I post? I have suspected Will for some time but could not get any momentum up.

[Rocky]

Welcome, Mulan.

Very entertaining death scene, FWIW.

Feel free to chime in. Do you have specific reasons that you can add to snafu's list of "guilty traits" of Will?

[snafu]

OK, following up on the active in political link to EC2, the following players are active in political
BC
Ebenezer Kohl
Kaput Shakur
Traina
Will Durant

I've made my suggestion for a Death Match and while there is substantial support, there is not a clear concensus.

Gandalf and 4Sigma - you seem to be the biggest objectors. So what do you propose?

[Mulan]

The main one is that he SHOULD be arguing with me and PMing me about my putting his name out there so much, but he's not. He usually would not hesitate to call me names or push my buttons and he's declined to do so.

I think he's very, very guilty of being EC or being the sleeper - if I were the slayer, I'd have killed him by now. I don't have a clue who the other is, assuming there is one.

[Gandalf]

Mulan, you were on Will's case long before he would have had any idea he was the sleeper. If the behavior you describe is indeed evidence of guilt, it is evidence he is EC2, not sleeper.

[Leela]

While I like the idea of the death cage match and think it would be entertaining, the Slayer has asked us to provide only one name to the students for lynching. And I think we need to take this request into consideration when we decide what method to use.

[Gandalf]

I will not pick my choices for the cage when I oppose the cage idea. Note also that our slayer requested we go with one name only, and hit werewolf primarily because he was known to be not the slayer.

[Rocky]

We can go back to the single suggestion next round, if the students agree. Let's have some fun with 2 known non-slayers this round. Then let the slayer stake the scraps...

2 players that most of the students would like to know the truth about anyway.

Let's get it on!

I'm posting it now! :D

this is a great idea, snafu...it's getting me riled up. wooooooooo

[snafu]

OK Gandalf and 4Sigma - we do it your way this round. Please note, however, that I posted my suggestion and then tried to reach a consensus on the issue. Sort of a democracy of equals. The two of you on the other hand - posted a message representing the ghost forum about how we would go about this round and refused to give input on the leading idea because you don't like it.

If this round sucks like last round, it's death match o-rama. I'll take an open vote of the ghosts and if there is enough support post the death match recommendation along with those in support and those against.

[Mulan]

What is a death match?

How can we get students to cast enough votes to Kill Will?

How can we encourage the slayer to kill Will?

[snafu]

We can go back to the single suggestion next round, if the students agree. Let's have some fun with 2 known non-slayers this round. Then let the slayer stake the scraps...

2 players that most of the students would like to know the truth about anyway.

Let's get it on!

I'm posting it now! :D

this is a great idea, snafu...it's getting me riled up. wooooooooo

Unfortunately 4Sigma has already gotten things rolling for us. Rocky - I respectfully request that you follow along with 4Sigma and Gandalf for this round. If the round is a waste then I will be looking for support for an alternative next round. Success for the round is determined (IMHO) by generation of discussion and multiple targets.

[Rocky]

Unfortunately 4Sigma has already gotten things rolling for us.

:shake: That's just wrong. Maybe not the idea, but the lack of discussion in the GF.

I appreciate that 4sigma often takes the lead with public posts, but the posts should be of the general opinion of the ghosts. That is not the case here.

[snafu]

Unfortunately 4Sigma has already gotten things rolling for us.

:shake: That's just wrong. Maybe not the idea, but the lack of discussion in the GF.

I appreciate that 4sigma often takes the lead with public posts, but the posts should be of the general opinion of the ghosts. That is not the case here.

I agree. However, once the mistake has been made, I also feel the best course of action is to present a common public face.

[Rocky]

What is a death match?

How can we get students to cast enough votes to Kill Will?

How can we encourage the slayer to kill Will?

Check this out...

http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=33073&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=52

[4sigma]

Sorry to take the bull by the horns on this. I think that the death match deprives our slayer of their ability to choose people to target.

If we name 2 names, we have made it clear that neither of them is the slayer. The slayer, rather than selecting their favorite target, will be virtually forced to take out the second name we listed, in order to better protect themselves.

Since our slayer has shown better judgement than we have, I think we owe the slayer the opportunity to continue to follow their best hunches.

The slayer has specifically requested that we only provide 1 name per round from now on. See their post on page four of the "lynching system" thread.

[Rocky]

I agree. However, once the mistake has been made, I also feel the best course of action is to present a common public face.

Maybe, but this is a private forum...where's that big @ss stupid stick you stashed away for EK? It's looking like you may want to try it out on 4sigma first... :D

[Rocky]

Sorry to take the bull by the horns on this. I think that the death match deprives our slayer of their ability to choose people to target.

If we name 2 names, we have made it clear that neither of them is the slayer. The slayer, rather than selecting their favorite target, will be virtually forced to take out the second name we listed, in order to better protect themselves.

Since our slayer has shown better judgement than we have, I think we owe the slayer the opportunity to continue to follow their best hunches.

The slayer has specifically requested that we only provide 1 name per round from now on. See their post on page four of the "lynching system" thread.

We've stated before and can state again that we could be including the slayer in a list of suspects. That would still give the slayer free rein this round to hit whoever they want.

I saw the request, that's why this round (if any) was ideal for a 1-on-1 matchup.

[Mulan]

Mulan, you were on Will's case long before he would have had any idea he was the sleeper. If the behavior you describe is indeed evidence of guilt, it is evidence he is EC2, not sleeper.I was on his case early to bug him. His unwillingness to bug me back became suspicious as more time passed.

[Leela]

Would it be helpful to compile a "master suspect list"? If we do this, I think it would be helpful to do separate student and ghost lists. My thoughts on how to do this are:

Have everyone put their list in order from most likely to least likely to be EC.

Number each list with 1 being most likely to be EC.

Average the numbers for each player.

Then organize the averages from lowest to highest.


Thoughts? In order to do this, the ghosts would have to provide me a list from most likely to least likely.

[Avi]

The slayer has specifically requested that we only provide 1 name per round from now on. See their post on page four of the "lynching system" thread.

I would like to reiterate that my method combines the data gathering qualities of the death match with the "one-name suggestion" safety required by the slayer with the added bonus of throwing everyone for a loop if and when we suggest a completely different name than our discussion fodder.

As an aside, I was under the assumption that the GC is a collaberative effort. This means that we should all have a say. While I respect the effort that 4sigma, Gandalf, and others have put into this endeavor, the fact that we're all still here does imply that something hasn't been working as well as they had hoped.

By either ignoring or marginalizing other ghost participants, the trend would only continue.

[Leela]

The problem is that it's hard to get a consensus when there are so many people here and when we are all on at different times. With the shorten lynching time, it will only get harder. Sometimes, we just have to go with what the best idea at the time is.

[Rocky]

The problem is that it's hard to get a consensus when there are so many people here and when we are all on at different times. With the shorten lynching time, it will only get harder. Sometimes, we just have to go with what the best idea at the time is.

We could beat this topic into the ground, but it won't get us anywhere.

Why don't we start talking now about what our approach should be for (at least) the next round.

Avi, I'm probably a :duh: , but could you either PM me or post a different description of you revised suggestion process. When I compare your posts to what I read as your suggestion, the ideas aren't synch'ing up for me.

[Jables]

I just to chime in and say that amongst the remaining players, I've got some suspicions mostly about Kaput Shakur right now. It has already been noted that he fits the political profile of EC2... I also found it a little odd of how soon he posted his comment about players dieing left and right after Mulan posted her death scene, almost like he was on the EC, and knew that since Mulan was online at the time she was picked by the EC, that she would post her death scene quickly.

Conversely, since Mulan's death came so quickly after Werewolf's, he may have just been hanging out in the thread and made an innocent comment about back to back deaths very near each other...

[Mulan]

I just to chime in and say that amongst the remaining players, I've got some suspicions mostly about Kaput Shakur right now. It has already been noted that he fits the political profile of EC2... I also found it a little odd of how soon he posted his comment about players dieing left and right after Mulan posted her death scene, almost like he was on the EC, and knew that since Mulan was online at the time she was picked by the EC, that she would post her death scene quickly.

Conversely, since Mulan's death came so quickly after Werewolf's, he may have just been hanging out in the thread and made an innocent comment about back to back deaths very near each other...I don't know when EC2 told Penguin that I was next to die. I received word at least an hour before Werewolf posted his scene. I was just supposed to wait until after Werewolf's scene.

I had 3 scenes already written just in case from the very beginning. So I didn't need the prep time.

[Jables]

Hmm, so the EC made their selection before the result of the slaying was public knowledge... I imagine Mr. Penguin probably informed them that the slayer made his/her selection and to get ready to pick their next victim, but I'm not sure if he goes as far to tell them who the slayer picked...

[4sigma]

Very interesting. It sounds like EC has given their nominees to Mr. P. a fair bit in advance. This seems like a strategy more likely to be followed by a player who is not online all the time. The idea being that someone who is not around frequently might be detected by their delay, unless they provide their nominees in advance.

[Rocky]

Very interesting. It sounds like EC has given their nominees to Mr. P. a fair bit in advance. This seems like a strategy more likely to be followed by a player who is not online all the time. The idea being that someone who is not around frequently might be detected by their delay, unless they provide their nominees in advance.

IT'S JABLES! :wink:

[Jables]

Very interesting. It sounds like EC has given their nominees to Mr. P. a fair bit in advance. This seems like a strategy more likely to be followed by a player who is not online all the time. The idea being that someone who is not around frequently might be detected by their delay, unless they provide their nominees in advance.

IT'S JABLES! :wink:

C'mon now... I think we've proven that wrong :lol:

[Mulan]

Now that I read a good bit of the posts here in the GF, I see that Will Durants name has come up over and over again - ranked high. I thought I was the only one that saw problems with his posts.

Why hasn't he been lynched or slayed yet? Especially when a lot of people said it is either Will or Mulan, and it was believed by the ghosts that I was innocent.

I could be wrong about Will, after all I was sure that Werewolf would turn up as the dead sleeper.

But I've thought from the beginning that Will was NOT HIMSELF. It is frustrating not to be able to convince enough people to vote for him - after all it isn't too bad if he's dead and innocent (cuz then I'll shut up).

What are the rules about what I can post in the game thread. Can I Suggest? Sunny did.

Got to go to bed now. my eyes are tired from reading all the posts.

Mu

[ahow]

Wow, there has been some major action tonight. Hopefully they will keep it up...

[4sigma]

:rant:
It is a VERY bad idea that we suggest names for lynching in the public thread. Sunny should not have done so and I hope that she will not do so again. :evil: Ghosts should NOT publicly suggest names for lynching at this stage, unless we have some explicit agreement with the students, such as Avi's proposed nominating plan.

The living players believe that we know who the slayer is. In particular, EC belives that we know this. And they are surely desperately looking for clues as to who is or is not the slayer. And their best clues are therefore who we are trying to protect, and who we are willing to allow to be lynched.

In reality, Sunny has no idea whether or not BC is the slayer. (Apparently she also has no idea whether or not cubedbee is EC... :D) But EC doesn't know this. EC will now likely believe that because a ghost has suggested hitting BC, that BC is not the slayer. This narrows the field for EC to be more likely to hit the actual slayer, assuming that it's not BC (and assuming that they think Sunny has any credibility.)

So if you want to lobby for someone, lobby away, but do it here on the ghost forum. After all, we name the person who will be lynched each round. We have the ability to direct the slayer to hit people that we find suspicious, regardless of whether or not the students are voting for them. So what are you wasting your undead breath on those living folks for? ;)

By all means, post your best reasoning here and in the Summary thread, to persuade your fellow ghosts. But please do not make any more posts in the public thread suggesting anyone in particular should be killed. This places our slayer at great risk. [/rant]

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Mulan, I am warming up somewhat to hitting Will Durant, though I am not ready to lynch him yet. The best way to have your reasons about Will Durant heard is to make a post in the "Summary" thread outlining your reasons on all the remaining living students. Read all the posts there and you will see all the reasons that people believe that Will (and everyone else) is more or less likely than average to be EC2.

You are strongly encouraged to make a post and provide your thoughts not just about Will Durant, but about all the players, so we won't think you just have an axe to grind. ;)

BTW, you may want to ease off the "Kill WILL" in your public postings. If you saw on the ghost forum that Will were the slayer, would you still be saying that? Probably not. EC thinks that you know who the slayer is. We don't want to let EC rule out the possibility that Will Durant is the slayer.

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Having said that, this thread is the right place to be speaking up for who to lynch this round. Later it will also be the place to discuss any suggestions we have for the slayer to hit. For the moment, however, we probably are going to want to have the students lynch someone that the students are casting a few votes for. Remember when you were a living student and you wanted the ghosts to respect your voice? :P For example, what do you think about this round's nominees so far -- BC, J.T., EK, Macroman, Ultimate Anyone, and All Clear?

[4sigma]

Thus far there are 2 votes for BC, 2 for J.T., and one apiece for All Clear, Ultimate Anyone, Macroman, and EK. Traina's vote for J.T. is likely to swing as soon as J.T. shows up, and EK's vote for All Clear may well swing, if his past performance is any indication of future results.

Since BC appears likely to be one of the candidates this round, I will post my current thoughts on him.

I am personally becoming more amenable to hitting BC. I know I have posted in the summary thread that I am inclined to think that he is innocent. My main basis for this is the fact that he created a model of the game and shared some non-intuitive results with myself and Gandalf, such as the fact that the students should normally pass if the slayer is killed while both EC are still alive.

For those who don't already know this, I know BC IRL. He is an absolutely brilliant mathematician and loves nothing more than a good proof of a difficult result. I am now of the mind that if he were EC and built a model that showed a new and interesting result about the game, he would be inclined to share it with anyone who was interested, regardless of whether it helped the students choose a marginally better strategy or not.

BC and I were in discussions about fine-tuning the model he had built when I was killed. My main reservation now in thinking that he is EC is that he sent me the following PM after I died, saying that he was hoping that the ghosts would have him killed off so that we could continue our PMs back and forth. It was titled "I volunteer to join you."
Okay, I've thought about it, thought about a death scene, and decided I'll volunteer. If (and only if) you and the ghosts think I would be a useful member of the ghost forum, and that the model we've been working on will be useful and will advance significantly more quickly with the two of us working together, then please feel free to recommend me for lynching/slaying (of course, also if you think I'm EC or the sleeper - but it goes without saying that I am not. Except that I said it... :argue: :wink: :crazy: ). I will not try to start a bandwagon on my own (I have a few people whom I could probably convince to vote for me without the ghosts' blessing, and could probably start an avalanche that way if I wanted to) but will leave the decision and my "life" in the capable hands of y'all.

Sorry to see you go, but great death scene! Actually, mine also starts at the office... I hope it doesn't look like too much of a ripoff, although I came up with the concept independently...This strikes me as genuine on his part, though I admit it is possible that it's the work of a rather crafty EC attempting to evidence his innocence.

[4sigma]

Some general comment on the 4 "theories" that have been provided so far this round by the living students:

1) EK's chess theory. I really don't see any merit to this. I'm not even sure that EK really believes it. I think EK has likley concocted it in order to foment discussion. EC has shown a pattern of lynching (1) low post counters, followed by (2) obvious innocents and then (3) possible slayers. Their strategy has been reasonably sound, and I see no evidence that chess has played any role in it whatsoever.

2) The "paranoia" theory. I am fond of this theory, though I still think that EC2 may have picked this up in Political rather than from the game Paranoia. But the reasoning for BC or Macroman is reasonably sound in this regard. I think EK, Anonymouse, and Kaput Shakur would likely fit the relevant demographic, though they have perhaps not exhibited the same gamer spirit as BC and Macroman. EK has denied ever having played Paranoia, though I expect he would do so regardless, unless anyone on the RF knows that he has played it.

3) The "lynch the quiet" theory. I have a fair sympathy for this theory as well. A quiet EC is difficult to identify. We want to make people be vocal. I would be willing to hit a quiet type this round.

4) The "Can we try EK again" theory. I don't mind if EK gets a few votes again, but I don't want to hit him at the moment. As I think Gandalf mentioned, he is the most active student in getting people to talk. We have finally got some decent discussion going amongst the living students.

Also, if we protect EK again, I think it puts a big bulls-eye on him for EC. If we protect him again and EC does not take him out next round, then he will move way up my suspect list.

[Sunny]

From what you've posted, 4sig, perhaps BC is innocent. I'd be interested to see what his response is to my post publicly, and I would, if I were you 4sig, use my judgment knowing BC irl much more than what others would speculate on his behavior. Thanks for the info.

I'll leave my post out there just to stir the pot. :D

[snafu]

OK, back in the office and working on the second cup of coffee. Here are my thoughts for the morning.

re: the Swing Vote
Seems to be working this round. As such, I'll hold off on rebellion for a while and continue working with the system.

re: 4Sigma and taking the bull by the horns
Still not too happy about that. Here is your dose http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_16_2.gif. Pax espiritus ?

re: Mulan and Kill Will
Not sure what I think on this one. We have a gambit with KP to lead the EC into thinking Will is the slayer. So let's pretend. [pretend Will=Slayer]If Will actually was the slayer. When Mulan joined the ghosts would we a) have her tone down the Kill Will stuff and possibly draw attention or b) continue exactly as she was? Having Mulan tone it down would be a mistake that would draw attention to Will.[/pretend Will=Slayer] Do we think the EC would buy this?

re: Paranoia
I am absolutely certain that the fear and ignorance quote stems from being familiar with political. See the EC2 profile thread. Then search for "fear and ignorance" and for "yous guys". All but one result will be returned from Political. "fear and ignorance" is used by 2Pak. "Yous guys" is used by The Waiting Hurts. Of the active posters, who is adversarial to these two posters in Political and would thus be familiar with their language usage? The names I come up with are Will and Kaput.

re: Lynch the quiet
Possibly a solid strategy for one round. Send a warning to the remaining players that non-participation can be deadly.

re: EK
Keep him alive as he is contributing a good bit to building discussion. Also, at some point the EC has to take him out and waste a turn.

re: Sunny
Bad Sunny :judge: Please do not do this again. It undermines the slayer's safety. It is fine to make joke threats like Avi did with EK but not serious suggestions.

re: Timing of Mulan's Notification
I checked and all of the living players posted yesterday. I will do some further analysis to see who may have been away from their computer during the day.

[Werewolf]

I just wanted to point out that some theories may not prove to be valid. For example, although I am familiar with Paranoia, I did not associate the "fear and ignorance" quote with the game. So you jumped to a conclusion, and killed an innocent student.

We should recognize that there are more innocent students than EC, so we'll spend most of our time hitting innocent students.

Still, I would be interested in hitting Will, because he is up there with me in writing against 2pac's posts.

[Mulan]

Since my theory is that Will = EC, I'm not sure that he would believe he was the slayer too. :wink:

Let me know what I should do about Kill WILL!! I'm sure that stopping would be noticed.

[Avi]

Does anyone besides me think that EK's exact use of Bill Clinton's Monica statement (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=30397&start=3175) with respet to Paranoia is worth considering?

I am not in cahoots with that player, EK ;)

[Rocky]

I like the idea of Mulan abruptly stopping the "KILL WILL!!" tag line. It will definitely be noticed, and will give the EC at least a small additional reason that they should hit Will (if he's not EC). We can see if the EC bites. If a student asks, your response can be something describing how you (as a member of the ghost forum) do not think that it's right to individually lobby for any students. Low-key, but certain to draw attention.

I've moved All Clear up my list a ways already. I think that if he is EC, he's played it very well. I nearly listed him (and a couple other students) by name when asking students to look at the quiet folks, but thought better of it.

[Mulan]

:duh:

[Rocky]

:wink:

[4sigma]

It appears that our candidates this round are going to be BC, All Clear, and Macroman.

I posted my thoughts about BC, above.

Regarding All Clear, I don't have much of a read on the guy yet. However, I don't buy into the chess theory at all. Also if he is EC, he sure isn't following the game very much, since he ended up being the last to vote and ended up with Traina's proxy. This seems an improbable behavior for EC.

I don't have much of a read on Macroman. Anyone know what time zone he works in? He may be something of a fit for the EC2 profile, but I think BC is probably a bit better.

Assuming these are the nominees this round, my preferences are

1) BC
2) Macroman
3) All Clear.

Subject to revision if anyone has convincing arguments to the contrary.

[Avi]

Why can't we throw EK to the wolves?

[Gandalf]

If BC, All Clear and Macroman are the possibilities, I would suggest we hit Macroman. I think neither BC nor All Clear is at all likely to be EC2. If I had to rank them, I would put All Clear slightly higher to be EC2, so slight that I would prefer hitting BC, since Sunny has already said BC is not the slayer.

[Avi]

Given the choices, I have a slight preference from BC as my summary thread explains, but I still want to see EK-filet! :burn:

[Mulan]

I will not be here this afternoon, so I recommend suggesting Macroman or All Clear to be lynched because I don't think BC is guilty (though he was obviously innocent at the start, he COULD be the activated sleeper)

My top few for likely EC: Will, EK, Jadzia, and Traina have no votes. I would go for any of these over Macroman/All Clear. These four would also be my recommendation to the Slayer to slay. I don't have time to send the slayer a PM on that subject today, however, since I gotta get something done before I leave for the day.

Good luck.

Ghostly Mu

[Rocky]

Why can't we throw EK to the wolves?

He may be in line for a steel cage death match next round. :o

I'd rank the three given as:

1) All Clear - he sent me a couple of PM's that seemed innocent enough but were very blunt about not wanting to have attention brought to him. Within an hour of my death scene, he sent another PM trying to explain himself. Almost like he wanted some protection. It could have been genuine, but I'm leaning towards a little different read on it right now.

2) BC

3) Macroman

If Macroman is trying to dupe people by just laying low, it's working with me.

[Rocky]

I don't have time to send the slayer a PM on that subject today

The slayer is still a living student. We ghosts can not PM the slayer.

[Mulan]

I don't have time to send the slayer a PM on that subject today

The slayer is still a living student. We ghosts can not PM the slayer. :o I knew that!! I'm glad you reminded me and I'm glad I didn't do it and I'm grateful I have too much work to have done it already.... EW!

[snafu]

I like BC. If guilty we get EC. If innocent, I think he could do wonders with some of the Ghost Forum information.

Rocky and Avi - As the swing vote strategy has resulted in substantial commentary and increased participation this round, I wish to continue with it for another round (and to exempt survivors from the current and previous round i.e. EK, Traina, and the survivors of BC, All Clear, and Macroman).

I too would like to see EK's head on a stake. But right now he is serving the best interest of winning the game by keeping participation strong. Please follow me in this strategy and stay with the swing voting for another round and letting EK survive for a while longer.

When we get down a few more candidates I'm sure there will still be time for the Steel Cage Death Match

[Leela]

My ranking of these three is

1) Macroman
2) BC
3) All Clear


For awhile, I really thought Macroman was the Slayer. But we now know that he is not since the Slayer was considering him for his/her last hit. One I found this out, Macroman really rose on my suspect list. I really think All Clear isn't EC mostly because he pointed out that the Ghost Forum could be compromised. Even though it turned out to be false, I don't think EC would have brought it up.

[4sigma]

Are we ready to take action yet, or should we continue to discuss. Here are the current rankings:

4σ: BC, Macroman, All Clear
Gandalf: Macroman, close between BC and All Clear
Avi: BC; no preference between Macroman and All Clear
Mulan: No preference between Macroman and All Clear; Not BC
Rocky: All Clear, BC, Macroman
Snafu: BC, no preference between Macroman and All Clear
Leela: Macroman, BC, All Clear
Sunny: BC, Macroman, All Clear (based on part on her Summary thread comments)

Counting points 1/2/3 for being ranked 1st/2nd/3rd, (and 1.5 or 2.5 for ties) this gives:

BC: 13.5
Macroman: 15.5
All Clear: 19

BC appears to be a slight favorite over Macroman for the lynching at the moment. Those who have a strong preference for Macroman, would you like more time to discuss?

[Avi]

Negatory, although I believe EK has a vote count of 5 right now :burn:

[4sigma]

Additional input from the student ranking lists we have received:

Traina: Thinks BC and All Clear are innocent. Thinks Macroman is suspect.

Asynch: Thinks BC and Macroman are suspect. No opinion on All Clear

All Clear: Thinks BC is innocent. No opinion on Macroman

BC: No opinion on All Clear. Thinks Macroman is perhaps innocent

Mulan: No opinion on BC or All Clear. Thinks Macroman is innocent

Jables: On his rankings list, lists Macro/BC/All Clear adjacent near the top of his list.

Among the students, there appears to be a slight preference for hitting Macroman compared to BC. None think All Clear is suspect.

[snafu]

4Sigma - can you please summarize the cases against the three

[4sigma]

I'm running off to lunch at the moment so I don't have time to make a pretty format.

I think the basic case against BC and Macroman is that they fit the EC2 profile due to being avid gamers, and thus likely to have encountered the paranoia quote. BC also fits for working in the Central time zone and posting during lunch, as EC2 appears to have done. As far as I can tell, the case against All Clear is what Rocky has posted, above.

[ahow]

I have no strong preference, but I would see Macroman and BC tied for first and All Clear in the clear.

1tied) Macroman
1tied)BC
3)All Clear

[Leela]

I really think Macroman is a better pick because he has been quiet and low key so far. He hasn't attracted much attention, which is what the EC should be trying to do.

[Rocky]

All Clear is just suspicion for me. None of the three have done much to incriminate themselves, IMO. All Clear's PM's to me can be viewed in a suspicious light, so that's what I did in my rankings (since there was little else to differentiate).

I'm fine with Macroman as our nominee. He hasn't given us squat to go on (as noted...this is a GOOD EC tactic).

[thing]

I prefer BC, then All Clear, and Macroman in a distant third. Macroman has a highly plausible alibi of posting only in the evenings which I do not think is consistent with when the handful of EC2 posts were made. This is from memory, so take with a grain of salt.

[4sigma]

We seem to be at something of an impasse here. I don't particularly want to make an executive decision like I did last time with Jables, though if we cannot reach a full consensus, somebody will have to make one.

I think that both BC and Macroman fit the EC2 profile about equally well. The main difference is that we have more evidence on BC, both for and against. BC has been vocal about his game model, while Macroman has been rather silent.

While I initially felt that BC's activity with the game model suggested his innocence, I am now not so certain. I am wondering whether my initial evaluation of him is perhaps clouded by my personal friendship with him. All in all, I don't think that all his mathematical modelling argues particularly for his guilt or innocence. It just argues for him being BC. That's just the kind of person that BC is. I am fairly confident that he would do as he has done with all his mathematics, regardless of whether he were EC or not.

The point about BC that I do find suspicious is that I know he is located in the Central time zone, and this fits with the profile of an EC2 that posts during lunchtime. See thing's comment, above. When I look at Macroman, he has no posts ever during this interval. See thing's analysis in the "data tabluation" thread.

Against that, there is BC's offer to me by PM volunteering to be lynched, so that he can continue discussing his game model with me. As I look back, this is something of a lukewarm suggestion that I don't think he honestly expected to be carried out. Accordingly I am giving it a bit less weight.

These are the reasons I prefer lynching BC to Macroman. I am interested in any other arguments either for or against.

By the way, I have the OK from the slayer to hit either BC or Macroman.

--σσσσ

[Avi]

All in favor of BC, say aye

:wave:

[ahow]

Aye!!!

[Leela]

Although I think Macroman is more likely to be EC, it's okay if we go with BC this round. I don't want to hold up our announcement.

[Rocky]

I'm guessing that Macroman may post tonight in his defense. That may not affect the decision, but if we recommend him before tomorrow morning he'll be denied that chance.

I'll go with any of the three without putting up an argument. It's like trying to pick the darkest snowflake, there's not a lot to differentiate them.

[4sigma]

OK, I'm being indecisive again. I just looked at Macroman's posting patterns. While he may not have posted around noontime during the first couple of rounds, he has made some apparent lunchtime postings since. So I don't know that we can differentiate BC and Macroman based on their posting times.

I think it's more or less a toss-up between BC and Macroman. I think BC's PM offering to be lynched may be slightly suspect but it's really very little to go on.

Anyone else have anything else to suggest here? I'd actually prefer not to be the one to make the final call on this one, since I think my opinion is influenced by my friendship with BC. For the record, I'm posting the history of the PMs he sent me earlier here (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=31637&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=156)in the "PMs" thread.

[Jables]

We seem to be at something of an impasse here. I don't particularly want to make an executive decision like I did last time with Jables...

Thanks! :wink:

Anyway, finally checking in... I'm fine with hitting either Macroman or BC (more so than All Clear), and if I had to pick one, I'd prefer to hit Macroman at this point.

[Leela]

One thing to think about is BC is the student favorite this round. We have made a precedent of protecting the favorite. If we pick him, will the EC think one of the others is the Slayer. Will the students be happier if we choose their favorite this round?

[4sigma]

One other factor that argues for hitting BC is the slip that Sunny made in publicly recommending him. Allowing Macroman rather than BC to survive may protect the slayer better, in the not-entirely-unlikely event that both of them are innocent.

[Leela]

It seems that BC has the majority consensus here now. I have no major concerns with suggesting BC, though I think Macroman is more suspicious. Does anyone else have a major problem with suggesting BC? If not, I will post our suggestion for BC by 10 p.m. central time.

[Cho Da]

Aye! He was my first stapler pick.

[snafu]

As I said before, I think BC seems a very slightly better choice for EC and a very strong asset to the ghost forum if innocent.

[Gandalf]

It seems that BC has the majority consensus here now. I have no major concerns with suggesting BC, though I think Macroman is more suspicious. Does anyone else have a major problem with suggesting BC? If not, I will post our suggestion for BC by 10 p.m. central time.
I think BC is far, far less likely than Macroman to be EC2, but will go along with the majority consensus especially since EC knows BC is not the slayer. We could get lucky and hit the sleeper.

[Werewolf]

I'm in support of offering BC.

[Leela]

I am posting our recommendation for BC.

[Butters]

I think I'm too late, but I would prefer macroman. He seems suspicious to me. For example, he may have been posting as macroman at night when he posted as EC2 during the day to make himself seem less likely to be EC. Now he may feel like enough time has passed for him to post whenever he wants. That's just my thoughts anyway.

As far as All Clear, have we received an OK from the slayer to hit him? For some reason, I suspect that he might be the slayer. He seems like he would be paranoid enough not to want his identity known.

I really need to post my suspect list when I have a chance, but right now, I am suspicious of macroman, Will, and Traina. Personally, I don't think Kaput is EC because the EC would have been playing a dangerous game with their early hits. For their first two executions, they selected the first and second lowest-count posters at the time (SSH and Leela). The next in line would have been Kaput. Abandoning their strategy right before hitting one of their own could have led to either the students or the slayer hitting Kaput. That just doesn't seem like a smart plan to me. I think they may have been hoping that we would take out an innocent student for them.

[snafu]

Personally, I don't think Kaput is EC because the EC would have been playing a dangerous game with their early hits. For their first two executions, they selected the first and second lowest-count posters at the time (SSH and Leela). The next in line would have been Kaput. Abandoning their strategy right before hitting one of their own could have led to either the students or the slayer hitting Kaput. That just doesn't seem like a smart plan to me. I think they may have been hoping that we would take out an innocent student for them.

Had not considered that angle. I would consider this to be pretty solid exculpatory evidence for Kaput Shakur.

[Rocky]

Personally, I don't think Kaput is EC because the EC would have been playing a dangerous game with their early hits. For their first two executions, they selected the first and second lowest-count posters at the time (SSH and Leela). The next in line would have been Kaput. Abandoning their strategy right before hitting one of their own could have led to either the students or the slayer hitting Kaput. That just doesn't seem like a smart plan to me. I think they may have been hoping that we would take out an innocent student for them.

Had not considered that angle. I would consider this to be pretty solid exculpatory evidence for Kaput Shakur.

Just to be contrarian, why did that strategy stop at Kaput? Since no one else has brought up this evidence, it was not as obvious as (I for one) would think it would have been.

It's a good point, Butters. Worth keeping in mind.

[Leela]

Whohoooo!!!!!

Now, was BC the sleeper or was he EC2? It sounds like he was EC2.

[Rocky]

Whohoooo!!!!!

Now, was BC the sleeper or was he EC2? It sounds like he was EC2.

EC2 based on his death scene (something about including the paranoia quote)...

[snafu]

Sleeper. I still strongly believe that the paranoia quote is from political and is either a slipup or an attempt to cast suspicion on people that are active in political.

[Leela]

The death scene sounds like EC2, but his pm to 4sigma volunteering to join the GC makes me think he's the sleeper. I just don't think an EC would volunteer. It's too risky.

[Mulan]

I think he was the sleeper. I'm still convinced that EC2 is Will.

[Rocky]

pretty confusing, really...his death scene makes it seem like he was EC2, no doubt about it.

but, that could just be deception. mr p is playing along that he could be either by mentioning that whoever have bc & cubedbee can still change their pick...

hmmmmm...

[Leela]

I would recommend we wait just one more round before asking the slayer to get one of those two. I would like to give the remaining EC one more chance to get one of them. If he/she passes, I recommend that our team nail them both next turn.

[Avi]

pretty confusing, really...his death scene makes it seem like he was EC2, no doubt about it.

but, that could just be deception. mr p is playing along that he could be either by mentioning that whoever have bc & cubedbee can still change their pick...

hmmmmm...

Since neither he nor Mr. P have divulged an EC number, it appears that BC was the sleeper.

[Mulan]

Now, do we give the slayer recommendations or does s/he choose without our help?

[Avi]

KAPUT!

[Leela]

S/He will usually pm either me or 4sigma with a list of players s/he's thinking about with one that s/he has a preference for, and s/he will ask us if we have a problem with the preferred victim.

You can look in one of the threads for a previous round if you want more details.

[Avi]

My instincts are 1 for 1 here. All of my prodigious actuarial training is telling me that I'm on a roll.

STAKE THE SHAKUR!

:P

:roll:

:horse:

:duh:

[Rocky]

ROUND 9 = DEATH MATCH???

canwe, canwehuh... :D

There may be no need...we'll have to see how the slayer's aim is this round...

[Sunny]

You guys, Macroman's last post was mighty suspicious. I'd say, GO FOR MACROMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:D

With that, I'm off to the airport. Have a great July 4th weekend! :wave:

[ahow]

Macroman's posting habits have changed greatly since cubed was slain. Perhaps we should look into this...

[Rocky]

I don't want to lose track of jadzia. It looks like most people have written her off due to the language barrier. However, she could have easily had Cubedbee or a friend post under that ID for her. Also, her stapler vote could have been a decoy.

IMO, she's worth consideration if the game goes on much longer. Maybe we can elicit some posting from her by making her a suspect.

[Mulan]

Please consider Will Durant since he was one player who didn't get a vote for BC in - one could assume that he did so to avoid lynching his partner in crime.

Since I'm almost blind to EC being other than Will, I would like to hear why people don't see what I see. If it isn't Will, I think, my energy would be better spent figuring out who it IS.

Thanks MU

[4sigma]

Woohoo! We got a EC!
:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
:wav: :wav: :wav:

Although it appears that we got the sleeper rather than EC2. Avi, I wouldn't go crowing too much about your instinct, since if BC was the sleeper, the actions of his that you consider suspicious were in fact done by an innocent student at the time.

If in fact we have hit the sleeper, this is great news for us, since we have a profile for who is EC2.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now is our opportunity to help advise the slayer. The way this works is that we are able to communicate our consensus opinions to the the slayer via ZIP codes.

My read on the consensus at the moment is that we consider Will Durant, Kaput Shakur, and Macroman slightly suspicious, JT slightly innocent, and jadzia and Asynchronous strongly innocent. (More evidence in favor of Asynchronous - he would not have posted the case against BC if he were EC2). I'm not sure if there's a consensus on EK -- I think several think he is innocent but a few think he is quite suspicious.

Please post here if you are strongly opinionated about any of the other players, or if you disagree with the opinions stated above. Some of the above have been communicated to the slayer already, but either Leela or I will post an update soon based on the current ghost consensus view.

[snafu]

Rocky - Why would Jadzia go through the trouble of having someone post for her to avoid the grammar errors when she could just not post? Doesn't make sense to me. I can see her as the sleeper maybe but not as EC2. We just don't know which one BC was.

Mulan - While I am inclined to agree with you regarding Will, the evidence in his favor can be found by reviewing the EC2 Profile. As a summary. Will was hesitant to jump on the initial Oblomov bandwagon and drew some attention to himself by questioning the wisdom of doing so. For an EC this would be very foolish to do as it draws attention to yourself when the alternative is to have a non-EC lynched. If you are EC you want to draw very little attention and jump on any available non-EC bandwagon that starts to form. So the evidence in Will's favor boils down to, Why would EC=Will draw unwanted attention protesting the lynching of a truely innocent student (we now know that Oblomov was neither sleeper nor EC)?

[Butters]

I think I'm too late, but I would prefer macroman. He seems suspicious to me.

Oops. :oops:

I guess I could still be right, but good job hitting BC!

[Rocky]

Rocky - Why would Jadzia go through the trouble of having someone post for her to avoid the grammar errors when she could just not post? Doesn't make sense to me.

Well, the EC was a team. It could be just to make the game more fun, or (more likely, I admit) it could have been Cubedbee posting under the EC2 ID. Notice that EC2 has been silent for quite a while (since before Cubedbee's death).

It's just a suspicion that I've gathered. There's not a lot of evidence to go on. But I'll keep looking...

[Rocky]

Rocky - Why would Jadzia go through the trouble of having someone post for her to avoid the grammar errors when she could just not post? Doesn't make sense to me.

Well, the EC was a team. It could be just to make the game more fun, or (more likely, I admit) it could have been Cubedbee posting under the EC2 ID. Notice that EC2 has been silent for quite a while (since before Cubedbee's death).

It's just a suspicion that I've gathered. There's not a lot of evidence to go on. But I'll keep looking...

Here are a few:

Note: "paranoia" and EK's stated casting of a critical vote (I didn't evaluate that assertion)
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=586383&highlight=#586383

Note: deflecting attention from the quiet since the EC are hitting them...and why did she say that I was "quiet"???
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=575235&highlight=#575235

Note: could be trying to get information from the sleeper...I know this one is a stretch, but it's something that can be viewed in a different light after BC's death IMO.
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=561854&highlight=#561854

Note: she gave up on this idea somewhat quickly...there may have been a good reason given in the public thread, but I don't recall one.
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=559919&highlight=#559919

[Leela]

Note: she gave up on this idea somewhat quickly...there may have been a good reason given in the public thread, but I don't recall one.
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=559919&highlight=#559919

The "good reason" for not keeping track of the suggestions in the public thread is some students thought it would give the information too easily to the EC. I didn't really buy into it, but that's what it was. Also, she volunteered to help me keep track of the votes shortly after I was killed. She sent me 2 PMs within the first week, but never sent anything else.

[Rocky]

Note: she gave up on this idea somewhat quickly...there may have been a good reason given in the public thread, but I don't recall one.
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=559919&highlight=#559919

The "good reason" for not keeping track of the suggestions in the public thread is some students thought it would give the information too easily to the EC. I didn't really buy into it, but that's what it was. Also, she volunteered to help me keep track of the votes shortly after I was killed. She sent me 2 PMs within the first week, but never sent anything else.


:oops: It was my suggestion for her to stop. :duh:

I still don't want to give her a free pass. I'd like to put some pressure on her if we get a chance.

[ahow]

Bring it over to the Round 9 thread guys! We need some fresh air...

[snafu]

Rocky, regarding Jadzia. Please note that she was my original choice for EC2 based on login showing (see my post under Who are the original EC). I've been convinced by the language barrier theory but could be persueded. However, for now I'll play devil's advocate.

Note: "paranoia" and EK's stated casting of a critical vote (I didn't evaluate that assertion)
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=586383&highlight=#586383I'll go with the same response as when someone pointed out EK's use of paranoia. The game is at least partially about paranoia. The word has been bandied about a bit. People will use it.

Note: deflecting attention from the quiet since the EC are hitting them...and why did she say that I was "quiet"???
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=575235&highlight=#575235 Macroman said you were quiet. Macroman posted the theory that EC was killing the quiet and hiding amongst the noisy. B^3 got slayed. Then EC started killing vocal types too. Jadzia simply posted a theory that maybe the change in strategy was due to a sleeper rising. Actually seems non-EC-ish to me.

Note: could be trying to get information from the sleeper...I know this one is a stretch, but it's something that can be viewed in a different light after BC's death IMO.
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=561854&highlight=#561854IMHO, too much of a stretch.

Note: she gave up on this idea somewhat quickly...there may have been a good reason given in the public thread, but I don't recall one.
http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=559919&highlight=#559919Yeah, leela and myself did a better job.

[Rocky]

Actually, Snafu, your post about EC2 and jadzia piqued my interest yesterday and got me looking.

I've added your research on that timing to my summary list and moved her up a couple of notches.

[Avi]

When do we post the zip code for this round's slaying?

I want to suggest Kaput :burn:

[4sigma]

When do we post the zip code for this round's slaying?

I want to suggest Kaput :burn:

As I mentioned above, the zip codes are to suggest our likely targets for the slayer's consideration. So far everyone is drooling over steel cage matches in the round 9 thread. Anyone who would like their input to be considered by the slayer should be discussing their likely targets over here.

I reiterate what I understand to be the consensus at the moment. This is what I am planning to communicate to the slayer, unless there is significant sentiment to the contrary posted here.

My read on the consensus at the moment is that we consider Will Durant, Kaput Shakur, and Macroman slightly suspicious, JT slightly innocent, and jadzia and Asynchronous strongly innocent. (More evidence in favor of Asynchronous - he would not have posted the case against BC if he were EC2). I'm not sure if there's a consensus on EK -- I think several think he is innocent but a few think he is quite suspicious.

It looks like sentiment regarding jadzia is becoming more mixed. I still am convinced that she is innocent. Anyone else care to weigh in?

[Leela]

I would say jadzia is slightly innocent, or not sure, since we have recently had some discussions about her being suspicious.

[Avi]

4sig - how 'bout this.

If we decide to suggest Kaput for the slayer, I get to speak with the real estate agent this time in the BtPotEC thread :dsmile:

[snafu]

4Sigma - I would say go with your summary above but move Jadzia up to only slightly innocent.

Also, you might want to get with Avi by PM to see what the heck it is that he want to talk to the slayer about.

[4sigma]

Kaput has already been suggested to the slayer that we are suspicious he is EC. See my posts in the Round 6 thread. There is no need to name him to the slayer again unless our sentiment about him has changed. He is already high on the slayer's target list.

I will move jadzia up to only slightly innocent. The slayer will be able to compare this to the previous report that she was "fairly innocent" and realize that our suspicions about her have increased somewhat.

Has anyone got any insights about who is likely innocent based on the death of BC? For example, I think that Asynch is now very strongly innocent, because of the way he led the charge against BC last round. There are doubtless other clues out there of who has protected or endangered BC, and/or who BC has protected or endangered. These would be crucial observations to pass along to the slayer.

We have many pairs of eyes. The slayer only has one pair of eyes. Time is short.

[Mulan]

Give the slayer the codes about jadzia and Asyncronous and let the slayer work. As a recently departed student, I must say that the delay between a lynching and a slaying was very hard to put up with.

I would have thought that our codes to the slayer would have been posted already.

For us "new" ghosts, can you tell us what the guilty/innocence levels are for the remaining players that have been communicated to the slayer before?

[snafu]

Has anyone got any insights about who is likely innocent based on the death of BC? For example, I think that Asynch is now very strongly innocent, because of the way he led the charge against BC last round. There are doubtless other clues out there of who has protected or endangered BC, and/or who BC has protected or endangered. These would be crucial observations to pass along to the slayer.

We have many pairs of eyes. The slayer only has one pair of eyes. Time is short.

In Round 2, BC voted for Will Durant. His was the third vote for Will so a bandwagon was starting to form. Minor plus for Will being innocent.

In Round 8, BC voted for J.T. shortly after EK applied pressure to BC via the Traina Hot Potato. I would also give this as a minor point in J.T.'s favor.

[4sigma]

Do we think BC was EC2, or the sleeper? If he's the sleeper, his Round 2 vote does not help us. I am inclined to think now that BC was EC2, but it's unclear.

Agreed that his vote for J.T. is suggestive of her innocence. I think she is a likely EC target next round, as is Asynchronous.

[4sigma]

Updated to reflect comments made since my last postingMy read on the consensus at the moment is that we consider:
Kaput Shakur, and Macroman slightly suspicious
Mixed on EK and Will Durant
jadzia slightly innocent
JT fairly innocent
Asynchronous strongly innocent.
Any other thoughts?

[Mulan]

All Clear
Asynchronous
RedSoxFan
Traina
Ultimate Anyone

What about these 5? What is the past ghost reading on them?

[4sigma]

note that on BC's ranking list, jadzia and EK are ranked very high. This seems improbable if they are EC.

The bottom of his list is Ulitmate Anyone, Traina, Macroman, and Kaput. I think this confirms our suspicions of Macroman and Kaput. It also raises Ulitmate Anyone and Traina slightly on my radar, though not enough to recommend them to the slayer just yet.

[Mulan]

note that on BC's ranking list, jadzia and EK are ranked very high. This seems improbable if they are EC.

The bottom of his list is UA, Traina, Macroman, and Kaput.

I think that confirms our suspicions of Macroman and Kaput.

All Clear, J.T., RedSoxFan, Jables, Will Durant (in that order, but close enough to be indistinguishable; besides, Mulan might be right - even a blind squirrel gets a nut sometimes, as my dad used to say). AND he says I'm right!! See!

[4sigma]

note that on BC's ranking list, jadzia and EK are ranked very high. This seems improbable if they are EC.

The bottom of his list is UA, Traina, Macroman, and Kaput.

I think that confirms our suspicions of Macroman and Kaput.

All Clear, J.T., RedSoxFan, Jables, Will Durant (in that order, but close enough to be indistinguishable; besides, Mulan might be right - even a blind squirrel gets a nut sometimes, as my dad used to say). AND he says I'm right!! See! He also says you're a blind squirrel.... ;)

P.S. In your list of 5 names, I think you meant Anonymouse, not Asynchronous.

[Mulan]

Yes, I saw that. Maybe I am. I'm probably wrong anyway. I certainly didn't see it coming with BC.

[4sigma]

Not much comment since my last posting. I am inclined to upgrade both Macroman and Kaput Shakur to "fairly suspect" due to being low on BC's rankings list, and downgrade EK and jadzia one notch each due to being high on BC's suspect list.

I will be posting the final list late this evening. If I do not receive any further feedback, it will be communicated to the slayer as I have described above.

[Casper]

Hmm, so the EC made their selection before the result of the slaying was public knowledge... I imagine Mr. Penguin probably informed them that the slayer made his/her selection and to get ready to pick their next victim, but I'm not sure if he goes as far to tell them who the slayer picked...

Macroman here:

Mr. P informed me of my selection by the EC about an hour before Kaput's death scene was posted. It could just be that the EC is taking a very long holiday weekend.

[Mulan]

Hmm, so the EC made their selection before the result of the slaying was public knowledge... I imagine Mr. Penguin probably informed them that the slayer made his/her selection and to get ready to pick their next victim, but I'm not sure if he goes as far to tell them who the slayer picked...

Macroman here:

Mr. P informed me of my selection by the EC about an hour before Kaput's death scene was posted. It could just be that the EC is taking a very long holiday weekend.Jables, I asked Mr. P and was told who the slayer had slayed (werewolf) and he asked me to post my death scene after Werewolfs. Sorry I didn't answer you sooner, I didn't see the question.

[Jables]

Hmm, so the EC made their selection before the result of the slaying was public knowledge... I imagine Mr. Penguin probably informed them that the slayer made his/her selection and to get ready to pick their next victim, but I'm not sure if he goes as far to tell them who the slayer picked...

Macroman here:

Mr. P informed me of my selection by the EC about an hour before Kaput's death scene was posted. It could just be that the EC is taking a very long holiday weekend.Jables, I asked Mr. P and was told who the slayer had slayed (werewolf) and he asked me to post my death scene after Werewolfs. Sorry I didn't answer you sooner, I didn't see the question.

No problem...I wasn't sure if we were on to anything or not.

[Sunny]

[1) All Clear - he sent me a couple of PM's that seemed innocent enough but were very blunt about not wanting to have attention brought to him. Within an hour of my death scene, he sent another PM trying to explain himself. Almost like he wanted some protection. It could have been genuine, but I'm leaning towards a little different read on it right now.


Rocky,

Very suspicious. BC did exactly the same thing when I was killed by the EC, pming me and seemed, in hindsight, trying to get the ghost forum and myself to think him innocent. Just my two cents.