BtPotEC Ghost Forum: Suspect for Round 10

[Mulan]

Are we really going to pass and encourage the students not to lynch anyone? Who should we recommend to the slayer?

I think Traina has come up a number of times. What about her?

[Mulan]

By now we were deep into the next round choosing our victim, since we have such tight deadlines.

Are we going to do a DEATH MATCH, like we discussed before??

[4sigma]

I could only see holding a death match if the slayer is hit. Take a look over in the strategy thread. If the slayer is still alive, it may well be right for the students to pass next round.


If the slayer is hit, then we would have 7 students remaining, 2 or 3 of which we don't think are EC. We could propose 2 of them for a death match in the round of 7, 2 others in the round of 5, and then the winner of the two previous matches in the round of 3. As long as EC is one of the 4 people in our "semi-finals", we would then win the game 75% of the time.


I made a posting over in the public thread that we may want to propose a change in the nominating process next round. If EC hits the slayer, we can consider the deathmatch idea.

If EC fails to hit the slayer, then we can discuss the merits of passing. In particular, we can make it clear that the merits of passing vs. lynching depend heavily on how many people we are convinced cannot be EC, and thus newly urge the students to PM us updated rankings lists with emphasis on the reasons they think anyone in particular is innocent.

[Gandalf]

Maybe this belongs in the strategy / tactics area, but potentially the ghost forum power could plummet if the slayer is hit. Don't you expect EK to go on a "why should we listen to the ghosts any more?" kick. He may add, "After all, they cannot be sure that anyone is innocent any longer."

Can he control the group at 7? At 5?

I think at the first hint of such tactics from him, we need to step in with "We know who the original slayer is. That is a certain innocent student. Kill that person, and not only have you wasted a turn, you've made our future choices harder."

I'm not thrilled with lying to all the living students (just to EK), but I think it is justified. It may also have advantage that the EC will try to hit someone as the original slayer rather than someone the students will just think is innocent. How nice it would be if they took out RSF or Traina for us, or even All Clear, though I suspect he's innocent.

[Gandalf]

nm - duplicate post (that I couldn't delete even though no one posted after me. Strange)

[Avi]

The way this thread was set up by glenn, only mods have delete privs.

[Macroman]

If we are to sack anyone this round, it should be the survivour of WD and UA. They have already been revealed to not be the slayer.


edited to say....that is provided we still have a slayer.

[Macroman]

Maybe this belongs in the strategy / tactics area, but potentially the ghost forum power could plummet if the slayer is hit. Don't you expect EK to go on a "why should we listen to the ghosts any more?" kick. He may add, "After all, they cannot be sure that anyone is innocent any longer."

Can he control the group at 7? At 5?

I think at the first hint of such tactics from him, we need to step in with "We know who the original slayer is. That is a certain innocent student. Kill that person, and not only have you wasted a turn, you've made our future choices harder."

I'm not thrilled with lying to all the living students (just to EK), but I think it is justified. It may also have advantage that the EC will try to hit someone as the original slayer rather than someone the students will just think is innocent. How nice it would be if they took out RSF or Traina for us, or even All Clear, though I suspect he's innocent.

I think it's imperative that we call for the students to vote EK immediately if the slayer should happen to be hit. He has been actively coalition building and eliminateing students that refused to vote with him. EK is perfectly willing to point "the finger" at any other player if it keeps him in the game. That's a dangerous situation, even if he's not the EC.

[Mulan]

We know for sure that the slayer is NOT WD?? Because if he is the slayer, that would be another reason why he's acting strange. I was thinking that I knew who the slayer was and that WD was EC2, but if he could possibly be the slayer, I need to rethink. No wonder I can't kill him!! :D

[Macroman]

By now we were deep into the next round choosing our victim, since we have such tight deadlines.

Are we going to do a DEATH MATCH, like we discussed before??

Whoooppie...3 in a row is a PARTY!!!!

If we have the misfortune to lose the slayer we could go for the death match. I still think a less suspicious student with help could win a death match with EK. Right now I think EK would have to accept a death match with AC, since he's been throwing the name out at every opportunity. If EK goes into a death match with a highly suspicious student he wins hands down.

As the game goes on EK is pulling together a better voting pool and he will be harder to oust.

If we want to match suspicious students we should avoid EK.

[Sunny]

nm - duplicate post (that I couldn't delete even though no one posted after me. Strange)

You noticed that just now? ;)

[4sigma]

RSF is making his way onto my radar for being uncharacteristically quiet this game. I think many people may remember his extremely spirited contributions to the last game.

I am also becoming wary of him because of the PMs between him and Jables suggesting an alliance in the event that one of them is EC to guarantee that one of them wins the stapler. Jables declined, but I think that there are others who would accept, such as perhaps EK.

[Leela]

So, we need to decide if we want to pass this round or play it out. And if we do play it out, what voting method do we want to use?

[Leela]

IMHO, there is no decision. If the EC hits the slayer, we don't pass. If the EC does not hit the slayer, we do.

[Gandalf]

After looking a 4Sigma's calculations and doing some of my own, I am inclined to take a shot at 7 rather than pass, especially if we still have at least 3 of slayer, JT, jadzia and Asynchronous left (which may be 3 or 4 different ids). That would mean we have at least one that we feel confident about in addition to the slayer, maybe two. We have at least 3 shots no matter what, and may get 4. Even if only 2 of those (i.e., EC kills the slayer, who is one of the three names) are left, hitting is OK.

We could consider a compromise strategy: decide who our top choices are, possibly WD, RSF and Traina. Maybe add EK or All Clear; maybe take one or more of the others off.

If the students put someone we want to hit near the top of their voting, we go ahead and lynch that person. If the students gave us a choice like JT, jadzia, Asynch, I would prefer to pass.

[Leela]

I have suggested reasons why I think we should pass. Gandalf seems to think otherwise. I would like some justification for his opposition. I don't think if we were to make assumptions at this point about who is and who is not EC, we need to assign limited credibility to those assumptions. I would like to see a mathematical analysis that suggests what credibility factor would be needed in order to justify not passing this round. Specifically, I think that if we fail to hit the EC with that extra hit, we have made a HUGE mistake. I really don't want this to be a black box decision.

[Mulan]

I think we should pass and encourage the slayer to slay Will Durant. I've outlined my reasons before. This is a recording.

[4sigma]

I've thrown up a post in the public thread discussing the merits of passing, but leaving it open for us to lynch. We'll see if any of the living students can do the math. ;)

I think we should discuss targets in this thread, and the merits of passing in the strategy thread. We may recommend the target to our slayer rather than have them lynched.

I'm inclined to protect EK, All Clear, jadzia, and Asynchronous for the moment. So my targets would therefore consist of Will, RSF, and Traina. I'm inclined perhaps towards Traina but could be convinced otherwise.

[Leela]

I agree with 4sigma about who my targets are, but I would rank them as RSF, Will, Traina.

[Jables]

I've thrown up

Sorry to hear about that, hope you feel better!

[4sigma]

I've thrown up
Sorry to hear about that, hope you feel better!

:exams:

[ahow]

My list of guilty to innocent would be RSF, EK, Will, Asynch, Traina, jadzia, and All Clear.

[Avi]

Please check my strategy post (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=31929&start=100) where I think that our chances are about 10% better if we skip BOTH lynchings.

[Mulan]

I'm spending too much time worrying over this. I just want to say a couple of things and then I'm going to be quiet for a while. PM me if you feel the need to answer.

As you all know, I believe Will is EC. At first I was just teasing him, but at some point I felt more sure and more sure. Of course, I could be wrong, but not one of the remaining players has such a strong reason: namely that WD was represented to the EC as the slayer and he did not get executed.

So if WD is EC, no wonder he did not execute himself and if Will is NOT EC, keeping Will alive increases the chances that EC will hit the slayer, given that EC obviously strongly suspects Will is NOT the slayer but is innocent(given EC has not executed WD).

It looked like we were going to hit WD last round, but UA had a similar set up and the slayer took care of that instead. This time, in my view, we have no choice, we must lynch or have the slayer kill WD, to protect the slayer if nothing else.

If anyone has a stronger reason for someone else, by all means, discuss it. But I fear we are as ineffective as EK taunts us with. I agreed with UA on the thought that WD, in a similar situation, would be next.

[4sigma]

There are two different factors involved in deciding who to target next:

1) How likely are they to be EC?
2) How likely is it that EC will hit them in an attempt to kill the slayer?

In terms of my pure rankings of EC-likelihood, I would rank the remaining players as:

Traina
RSF
Will Durant
EK
All Clear
Asynchronous
jadzia

However, I think EC has pretty good indications that Will Durant and EK are not the slayer. Will Durant because of the KP hoax not having been taken up, and EK because of his playing style.

Likewise, EC may be tempted to hit Traina and All Clear, since we have protected them in the past. Or perhaps jadzia, since EC seems to have a sense that the slayer is a female.

If we are to pass this round, we are angling for the scenario where EC is unable to hit the slayer in their next two attempts. Again, if they guess randomly, their odds of hitting the slayer are 7/15 = 1 - (4/5 * 2/3). If we do this, I believe our strategy is to have the slayer target the people that EC is most certain are not the slayer. This would argue for slaying either WD or EK, though I recognize that they both have some moderate signs of not being EC.

Contrariwise, if we are going to lynch someone this round, then we may want to take our best shots at EC. This might argue for taking out Traina and RSF this round, and hoping that we win outright.

[Gandalf]

I am leaning toward the pass strategy, with the suggestion that we hit WD. I don't think either we or the EC has enough info to overcome the big edge for passing with no info.

If we are passing, I think the pick is of WD is easy. As 4Sigma says, the EC may well have eliminated WD and EK as slayer. We have no reason to think they have eliminated anyone else. So our best chances of protecting the slayer is to stake one of those.

Between EK and WD, I think WD is more likely to be EC, and is more certain than EK to have been eliminated as a possible slayer.

The next choice, if we have a slayer left at 5, is much harder. Obviously we will pass again. If we stake EK, best for protecting the slayer, we risk being unable to kill both Traina and RSF, who are the top two choices of many ghosts.

[ahow]

I back the WD staking as well as the pass by the students this round. I really thing it is too early to try to decide or even hypothesize about next round. We are going to cut our pool in nearly half by the time we get there (assuming we don't pass)...

[snafu]

OK, I was finally able to replicate the percentages that 4Sigma and Gandalf keep putting out of 72% winning under non pass and 80% under pass strategy. I have a couple of questions.

Regarding non-random hits. We know that both sides have better than random information. As such, the probability of getting down to the Students always win scenario under pass strategy should be reduced. Basically the probability for getting to the we always win state is 5/6 Slayer misses x 4/5 EC Doesn't hit slayer x 3/4 Slayer Misses x 2/3 EC Doesn't hit Slayer. Suppose we assume each side can eliminate 1 player from consideration. Then the odds become 4/5 x 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 20% instead of the original 33%. If we play for the endgame then we better hope the information is random. If there is non-random information, even if both sides have the same amount of non-random information, then the endgame advantage is negated. Try running the full probabilities if both EC and Students consider one student to be innocent / non-slayer.

If we are going to go with a strategy of Students Pass then I think we must take out Will. As Gandalf pointed out this would remove a player that EC probably thinks is non-slayer AND would take a better than random shot at the EC as well.

[ahow]

OK, I was finally able to replicate the percentages that 4Sigma and Gandalf keep putting out of 72% winning under non pass and 80% under pass strategy. I have a couple of questions.

Regarding non-random hits. We know that both sides have better than random information. As such, the probability of getting down to the Students always win scenario under pass strategy should be reduced. Basically the probability for getting to the we always win state is 5/6 Slayer misses x 4/5 EC Doesn't hit slayer x 3/4 Slayer Misses x 2/3 EC Doesn't hit Slayer. Suppose we assume each side can eliminate 1 player from consideration. Then the odds become 4/5 x 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 20% instead of the original 33%. If we play for the endgame then we better hope the information is random. If there is non-random information, even if both sides have the same amount of non-random information, then the endgame advantage is negated. Try running the full probabilities if both EC and Students consider one student to be innocent / non-slayer.

If we are going to go with a strategy of Students Pass then I think we must take out Will. As Gandalf pointed out this would remove a player that EC probably thinks is non-slayer AND would take a better than random shot at the EC as well.Of course for every student that we have info about, we may have misinformation about them as well. I would say that the information and misinformation would nearly cancel each other out, in my opinion...

[Leela]

karma police agrees with the students pass this round/slayer stakes Will strategy

[Gandalf]

Try running the full probabilities if both EC and Students consider one student to be innocent / non-slayer.
The answer depends on the precise assumptions (such as, is it one particular student that we consider innocent, so that if EC misses the slayer but kills that student, our chances are random). But in general this assumption for both sides would tilt the balance in favor of lynching now.

OTOH, if we make that assumption and are wrong about that one student, we lose if we lynch now but may recover if we pass, because the pass route ends up in some absolutely 100% cases, and the lynch route never does.

[Rocky]

I'm fine with passing and having the slayer hit WD this round.

In addition, I was thinking about the remaining players in this game last night and I've come up with (what I think is) an interesting lead. I haven't had time to thoroughly analyze, but I wanted to see what others thought about this theory.

RSF is seeming more likely to me to be EC. It's conceivable to me that he tried to set up a chess alliance along with his "red sox fan" alliance (see his PM to Jables on this). I think that EK could very well have joined in with RSF, as well as Will.

EK has a stapler vote for RSF which he posted without any further verbiage (rare for EK) after B^3's death. I think that he knew that RSF was EC2 at that point and could benefit from the alliance by having the winning pick if the students killed RSF.

A few other things.

After his death, B^3 said that EK "knew everything about this game". I don't think that was sarcasm by B^3. Could it be that B^3 knew that RSF had already told EK that RSF was EC2.

EK has posted that he does not want to jeopardize his status with the EC.

EK also sent me a PM a while back, after I stated that he and I are on equal footing for winning the stapler since my EC pick was still alive. In that PM he stated that his chance of winning the stapler with his RSF pick was much better than mine. It wasn't a trash-talk type PM, but more a statement that he believed was fact.

EK's accusations against All Clear appear contrived. He was trying to get All Clear to ask RSF a question about chess player posting patterns earlier. Why? To see if RSF could get All Clear to join the alliance is a possible answer.

Lastly, EK's latest slayer ploy could be to draw attention away from RSF and try to get the GF to hit him. I don't see any good reason why he'd make that assertion, but it could be to try to get us to not pass this turn (note that he also posted that we should hit someone this round since his probability of winning the game was equal whether or not we passed).

EK has done a few things to make it appear as if he does not have a connection to RSF, I'll admit that. But, I think that could have been part of his strategy.

[Mulan]

If we have consensus, lets put it into practice. Let's ask the students to pass and pass the code onto the slayer.

The players are already discussing the NEXT GAME, so it appears that we are all losing interest.

Let's get this show on the road.

[Avi]

OTOH, if we make that assumption and are wrong about that one student, we lose if we lynch now but may recover if we pass, because the pass route ends up in some absolutely 100% cases, and the lynch route never does.

Only the double pass route, and only if the slayer survives.

[Butters]

I'll trust your calculations that the double pass is the correct strategy. The slayer has to hit Will this round. That leaves RSF and Traina on my suspect list.

[Avi]

The double pass is the correct strategy IF all slayer, EC, and student lynchings are random, with the exception that we can 100% protect the slayer from the students.

The more knowledge we have about any player's innocence, the better off we are lynching.

The more knowledge the EC has about a student being the slayer, the better off we are lynching, since it is more likely that they will get to the Slayer.

[Mulan]

4sigma, leela, etc. I vote that we recommend the pass, pretty please, and pass the code to the slayer. I don't think we are going to be able to specify the number we KNOW to be innocent or the number the EC KNOW are not the slayer.

Alternatively, we could lynch RSF, since that name has come up several times, or WD, and suggest the other one to the slayer.

[Casper]

This is J.T.

I vote that we DON'T pass on the lynching. Not only does it take the students out of the game (hence: boring), but it doesn't do much to protect those that are innocent. Not to be blunt, but I pretty much knew who was deemed to be innocent, and who was suspect. (Except EK, which it seems you can't decide on...BTW, I vote innocent).

Vote for Will, Traina, or RSF. I would hestitate on Traina, since I think that the EC will probably kill her next, but I could be wrong.

[Rocky]

Someone brought up the point earlier that if the slayer hits both EC, then a student will lose out on his/her prize. By passing, we're taking that opportunity away from an innocent student (unless BC was EC2, but most of us think that is unlikely).

EK has RSF as his stapler pick, so I would rather that the slayer take out RSF on his/her next turn. Whether we pass or not, I still think that he should be the slayer's next hit. If we decide to lynch this round, we should pick WD.

[Leela]

Maybe we should let the students decide if they want to pass or lynch. One of us (4sigma, Gandalf, etc.) could post a little more detail of the percentages. Then tell the living students to vote pass or lynch in red. And if the majority want us to pass, we will. If the majority wants us to lynch, we'll name a nominee for them.

[4sigma]

I agree that passing this round tends to make the students bored. Fortunately there are a lot more ghosts than students now. ;)

My main concern with passing this round is that I think EC may have a pretty good bead on the slayer. I would suspect that due to some timing issues with when the slayer has made his/her decisions, it is possible to eliminate more choices than just EK and Will Durant.

I also have sympathy for the argument that slaying by the slayer tend to remove players from consideration in getting the stapler. While I find it curious that EK has chosen RSF for his stapler choice so early (insider information?), I would not wish to generally deny players the opportunity to win the prize.

My sentiment at the moment is therefore in favor of lynching, though my preference is not overwhelming.

[snafu]

I'm leaning heavily toward a lynching suggestion of WD
and a recommendation to Slayer of RSF

I would find a PASS suggestions
and a recommendation to Slayer of WD to also be acceptable but not preferred.

I think there is enough information know by each side at this point to negate the PASS advantage. Someone else pointed out that the information and disinformation should cancel out. I don't think it does and think there is a decent amount of positive information know by both side.

In the event of non-random hits, I think the strategy of Lynching is preferred. The Pass Strategy results in a 100% student win in the endgame IFF you get to that point. Due to the way the turns work out, non-random hits favor the EC in the Pass Strategy.

My $ 0.02

[Leela]

We need to decide soon since the deadline is noon tomorrow. I say we let the students decide if they want to lynch or pass.

[Mulan]

I think the living students are waiting for us to tell them what to do. Speaking as a prior student, there just isnt' any point in having an adverse opinion because it is recognized that activity may result in danger to the slayer. They are trained (not very well, but still) to wait for the GF to tell them what to do.

So if lynching and slaying WD and RSF is our consensus, we should act on it.

I do not favor Leela's idea of letting them decide. They just don't know what they want, except to win.

Mu

[Leela]

Maybe if we let the students make a decision every once in awhile they wouldn't be so bored. I don't see why we can't let me them take control on this issue since we can't seem to decide over here.

[Mulan]

Maybe if we let the students make a decision every once in awhile they wouldn't be so bored. I don't see why we can't let me them take control on this issue since we can't seem to decide over here.Mr. Penguin asked them to vote PASS if they want to pass and no one has.

They are not bored because they are not given decisions to make, they are bored because our recommendations take so long. They KNOW they have no decisions to make. The few times they tried to make their own decisions, the ghosts panicked. They know better now.

We CAN decide over here. We practically have already.

[snafu]

OK Mulan - maybe now would be the appropriate time to take up the chant again.

Come on, say it with me now

Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will

Say it with me now

[Leela]

They're waiting for us to tell them what to vote. If we said we want them to decide if they want to pass or lynch by voting PASS if they want to pass or LYNCH if they want to lynch, we would get a much better idea of what they wanted to do.

What have we decided? Earlier today it appeared that we had decided to pass. Now, it appears that we have decided to lynch.

Maybe everyone should post what they want to do as of right now.

I am still undecided on the issue.

[Avi]

It depends how certain we are of given players' guilt or innocence.

I no longer have strong feelings about anyone, and so lean to passing - with the exception of the fact that it may remove a stapler chance for a living player.

Certain others here seem to be rather sure about jadzia's innocence.

I haven't done the math, but I would think that lynching would be a better even with only one extra certain innocent.

It really depends on how sure the collective GC is about anyone other than the slayer's innocence is.

[Mulan]

I set up a poll, everyone please vote. We need to tell the students in the next hour or so.

[Leela]

Avi,

What about if we aren't sure that anyone's innocent, but we believe that the EC is certain that at least 2 players aren't the Slayer, giving them a better than random chance at hitting the slayer?

[Gandalf]

I think Pass (and staking WD) would give us slightly better odds, but I'm OK with lynching WD or RSF and have the slayer stake the other. As Cho Da says, if in the lynch now situation we did reach 4 left including slayer, student turn, we ought to be able to get the clues right.

[Avi]

Avi,

What about if we aren't sure that anyone's innocent, but we believe that the EC is certain that at least 2 players aren't the Slayer, giving them a better than random chance at hitting the slayer?

Than I believe we should lynch, as the high probabilities now stem from our dual chances at the EC.

[ahow]

ahow says, "Don't pass..."

Either WD or RSF would be fine by me...

[Rocky]

I've got one 100% innocent and two 95% certain innocents in my mind.

[Gandalf]

Avi,

What about if we aren't sure that anyone's innocent, but we believe that the EC is certain that at least 2 players aren't the Slayer, giving them a better than random chance at hitting the slayer?

Than I believe we should lynch, as the high probabilities now stem from our dual chances at the EC.
If Leela means for us that we consider all students equally likely to be EC, and that the EC can eliminate WD plus one other as slayer, then I think the odds still favor pass and lynching WD, slightly, as EC will still only have a 25% of hitting slayer with 6 left and 50% with 4 left (actually maybe lower than 50% when 4 are left, if we lynch the other person the EC knows is non-slayer).

[Mulan]

Let's roll, folks. The poll shows lynching WD is favored... (Now I'm nervous. Hopefully my mind was not playing tricks on me...)

[4sigma]

From the poll, it appears that the consensus is to lynch WD and to slay RSF. I nominate Mulan to do the honors of naming Will Durant in the public thread. :)

I will suggest RSF to the slayer via the real estate codes.

[snafu]

Say it with me Mulan
Come on, say it with me now

Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Say it Loud
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Say it Louder
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Kill Will
Shout it, Scream it out

[4sigma]

OK, I'm compiling a real estate post to send to the slayer. I estimate the current consensus at the following:

RSF: Fairly guilty
Traina: Mixed
EK: Mixed
All Clear: Fairly innocent
Asynchronous: Fairly innocent
jadzia: Strongly innocent

Let me know if you see any gross inaccuracies in the above. I actually think the consensus on Traina is perhaps slightly guilty, but I think we want to leave her alive as a slayer decoy, since EC seems to think the slayer is female.

[Mulan]

I got a PM from Cubedbee congratulating me for being right about Will. Don't know what to think. Cubedbee has not exactly been the most honest (given his role.)

[Gandalf]

I don't remember what we've heard from the slayer, but I strongly object to that. We chose "lynch WD, stake RSF" over "pass, stake WD". If that turns into "lynch WD, slayer decides to stake EK" I would have far, far preferred to pass this round.

I don't remember what gradations are available. If we could do WD strongly guilty; Traina fairly guilty [or mixed]; EK, All Clear and Asych fairly innocent; jadzia strongly innocent that would be OK.

[4sigma]

We have a small revolt in progress on the public thread. Or rather, an EK revolt. We shall see if we get the necessary votes in time. We may have to fall back on the "pass, slay WD" strategy, which is not too bad actually.

If people prefer, I can just sent the "RSF = fairly guilty" code to the slayer, and that should perhaps communicate more clearly.

[Gandalf]

If the students pass, then you don't even need code to say stake WD.

[Rocky]

If the students lynch WD, then I'd recommend only suggesting RSF and using the next level of guilt above fairly guilty...

[4sigma]

The next level of guilt above "fairly guilty" is "O.J. guilty." Haven't had occasion to use it yet. ;)

[ahow]

HOLY CRAP!!! EK is on board with the Ghost Committee. What the hell is going on???

[Mulan]

Will fell on his own sword!! Now is Cubedbee telling me the truth or not. Only time will tell.....

4sigma, I guess you should give the RSF code soon to the slayer

[Avi]

Caveat:

We now lose the 100% win opportunity of 3 left on a student lynch turn.

Also, should this go to another student turn, they now MUST choose.

[Rocky]

The next level of guilt above "fairly guilty" is "O.J. guilty." Haven't had occasion to use it yet. ;)

He got off...can we suggest Menendez guilty? :D

[Mulan]

they now MUST choose.and choose WISELY!! :o