BtPotEC Ghost Forum: Pass or Lynch

[Mulan]

Vote above on your current preference.

[Mulan]

10 views and 2 votes.... :shake: :shake: :shake:

[ahow]

ok, i voted to pass and slay WD, but i am actually more inclined toward either option 2 or 3 equally...

[Gandalf]

I also voted pass and slay WD, but I am ok with lynch and stake WD and RSF, either order.

[snafu]

I voted for lynch WD stake RSF

Have a definite preference for lynch WD stake RSF over lynch RSF stake WD. On the off chance that RSF is EC2, staking RSF would give the stapler to slayer instead of Ebenezer Kohl. On the off chance that WD is EC2, staking WD would give the stapler to slayer instead of me.

[Rocky]

I voted to lynch WD and slay RSF only because pass lynching and slay RSF was not an option. Those 2 options are basically equal in my mind.

[4sigma]

OK, I think this is enough of a consensus. Any objections? Unless there are any strenuous ones within the next hour, I say we go for lynching WD and directing the slayer to hit RSF.

I think we should give Mulan the honor of nominating WD for lynching in the public thread

[Mulan]

OK, I think this is enough of a consensus. Any objections? Unless there are any strenuous ones within the next hour, I say we go for lynching WD and directing the slayer to hit RSF.

I think we should give Mulan the honor of nominating WD for lynching in the public threadSo I recommend WD for lynching in an hour? Do I give reasons - like the hoax?

[Gandalf]

Definitely reasons, including the hoax. You gave reasons to us; don't you still believe them?

[Leela]

Are we sure we want to go public with the hoax now? Just because we're hitting Will doesn't really mean throwing KP out was a hoax. Remember, we neve knew what KP's code meant.

[Gandalf]

I thought 4Sigma expected to go public with the hoax. Do we see any residual value in it? It is certainly part of our real reason for hitting WD now (partly, we think EC would not lynch him if he stayed around; partly, because we think the fact that EC didn't take the bait increases the chance he is EC.)

[Gandalf]

I wonder if I could have gotten more support for Pass if I had packaged it as "Lynch urysohn; stake WD; then lynch Mr. P next round".

[4sigma]

Once we take out Will, I think the hoax should go public.

We may want to wait until after his death, however, to announce it. Just in case this creates any sort of confusion among the students. Wouldn't want to mess up the lynching.


I think we have enough public reasons to nominate Will, particularly his attempt to deflect the momentum from BC in the round BC was lynched.

[Mulan]

i have my message written, including a short explanation of the hoax. I'll post at 4 pm cdt.

Oh, here it is for your review:

The ghosts have analyzed the scenarios to death and have concluded that to skip a turn only gives a slight advantage if the ghosts know some innocents and the EC has some players eliminated at the slayer. Also it would be more fun to lynch someone and give an opportunity to a player to win the stapler as well as the slayer.

Therefore, the ghosts recommend Will Durant be lynched this round.

Since I've been lobbying for him since the beginning, the ghost committee allowed me the opportunity to lay out my reasons:

1. Although I've been gunning for him since nearly the beginning (which at first was a joke), his reluctance to take the bait and argue with me is, in my mind, very suspicious. Since he and I post so often in Political, I felt his personality was very different here.
2. He tried to deflect the mementum from BC in the round BC was lynched.
3. He is at or near the top of many student and ghost ranking that we have compiled.
4. Karma police's little problem with the ghost forum was a hoax. The EC asked him for the id of the slayer early in the game. karma police fed them the suggestions of Will Durant and Anonymouse. We then made a big public display of banning KP from the forum to add credibility to the perception that he had betrayed the ghosts. The fact that Will Durant was never executed by the EC is suspicious.
5. Even if innocent, Will Durant would then KNOWN to the EC as an innocent student. We need to protect the slayer by removing players that the EC knows to be innocent.

[4sigma]

My comment:

I would reword your reason #1 and make it less personal about yourself. Say perhaps that Will Durant has been uncharacteristically quiet in this thread compared to elsewhere.

Reason #2 is sound. We want to emphasize that since EC did not ever take out Anonymouse or Will Durant, this raises the possibility that this was because Anonymouse or Will Durant is EC. In any event, Will isn't the slayer, and EC has apparently decided he's not the slayer, so lynching him protect the slayer regardless. (this is your reason #3. It could be combined with #2 or stand separately, I suppose.)

I think we definitely want to mention that he deflected the momentum from BC in the round BC was lynched.

[Mulan]

So, 4sigma - leave on reasons 4 and 5 OR remove them?

Mu

[Mulan]

Rewrite:

1. The ghosts feel he has been uncharacteristically quiet and non-argumentive compared to his personality in other threads. This moved him up on my list and others have mentioned it as well. He is active in political and other game threads.
2. He tried to deflect the mementum from BC in the round BC was lynched.
3. He is at or near the top of many student and ghost ranking that we have compiled.
4. Karma police's little problem with the ghost forum was a hoax. The EC asked him for the id of the slayer early in the game. karma police fed them the Will Durant (not the slayer) as a suggestion. We then made a big public display of banning KP from the forum to add credibility to the perception that he had betrayed the ghosts. The fact that Will Durant was never executed by the EC is suspicious.
5. Even if innocent, because of the hoax, Will Durant would then KNOWN to the EC as an innocent student. We need to protect the slayer by removing players that the EC knows to be innocent.

[Gandalf]

We want to emphasize that since EC did not ever take out Anonymouse or Will Durant, this raises the possibility that this was because Anonymouse or Will Durant is EC. In any event, Will isn't the slayer, and EC has apparently decided he's not the slayer, so lynching him protect the slayer regardless.
Unless they know the hoax, this makes no sense. The EC never hit any of the currently living students, so unless there was some extra reason they should have hit WD, this is no reason to think he is EC. Likewise unless there was some extra reason they should have hit him, it is no more apparent they have decided not to hit him compared to any other living student.

[edited to add: OK, if Mulan is leaving the hoax in then clarifying why it leads us to hit Will now is good.]

[4sigma]

We want to emphasize that since EC did not ever take out Anonymouse or Will Durant, this raises the possibility that this was because Anonymouse or Will Durant is EC. In any event, Will isn't the slayer, and EC has apparently decided he's not the slayer, so lynching him protect the slayer regardless.
Unless they know the hoax, this makes no sense. The EC never hit any of the currently living students, so unless there was some extra reason they should have hit WD, this is no reason to think he is EC. Likewise unless there was some extra reason they should have hit him, it is no more apparent they have decided not to hit him compared to any other living student.

I think the argument here is twofold -- one about identifying EC, and one about protecting the slayer.

The EC identifying argument is that if EC were Will Durant, the hoax would surely fail. If EC were someone else, the hoax might or might not fail. This is perhaps not a strong argument and I am fine if we omit it.

The argument to protect the slayer is more compelling and I think it is worth making.

Edited to add: We should clearly document his post where he attempted to deflect the momentum from BC.

[Mulan]

Someone provide the code for the link to the post. I don't know how to do that.

[ahow]

Click the little page icon next to the "Posted: Thu Jul 08, 2004 4:15 pm Post subject: " line on the post. It will link you directly to the post...

[4sigma]

You can quote the following

Will Durant's post here. (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=30397&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=3174)

I recommend it might be worded as follows.

Will Durant attempted in this post (http://actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=30397&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=3174) to deflect the momentum from lynching BC.