Survivor Round 4 -- The Contracts

[urysohn]

We will only be holding one Challenge in Round 4. This is primarily due to constraints on my end, and I apologize for the variation from the rules which describe two challenges per round. I could give you a teaser for what the challenge will be, but how about I just show you the whole thing?
"Tomorrow's" challenge actually opens today at 3:00. I will be unavailable today after 3:00 or tomorrow during the day. I will check in this evening to see if there are any questions.

Round 4 Challenge - The Contracts
Your team has gotten out of the actuarial business and into home construction. You are currently considering submitting bids on up to 10 housing construction projects. You are working in a very small market and know that you have 2 other competitors who will be competing for the same projects. Your bids will be binding and, if you win the contract, will be the revenue you receive for the construction job. If your revenue exceeds your costs on the project, you will make a profit. If costs exceed your revenue, you will take a loss.

You have completed your initial analysis and determined the estimated cost of these projects. Using your actuarial background, you know that the total cost of a project like this is variable, and you have modeled the possible costs for each project separately. Each project would also require an initial investment cost - this is a portion of the total cost, which is needed at the time you begin the project. You have a large enough company that you can work on multiple projects simultaneously, but you cannot invest more in project startup costs than your current surplus.

You have modeled the cost of each project (X₁, X₂,..., X₁₀) using the cost functions f₁(x), f₂(x),...f₁₀(x). The total cost for each project, TC_n, will be a random variable following the distribution function f_n(x).

A portion of the total cost is needed at the time you begin the project. This known investment cost, IC_n, will limit the projects you may successfully bid on and will also serve as a floor on the cost for the project (if the random cost would otherwise have been below this amount).

Each contract also comes with a maximum allowable bid. No bids higher than this amount will be accepted. The property developers would prefer not to have the property built if no one can build it for less than this amount.

For practical purposes, the actual cost wil be determined before bids are accepted and will be printed in the challenge in code, for documentation, not meant to be crackable. As stated above, these costs will be random variables selected from the distribution for each function.

You have $500,000 in initial surplus. You may not bid on more contracts than you could successfully work on, based on your surplus and initial investment costs for each property. There is no minimum number of properties you must bid on; you may choose to submit zero bids, if you wish.

We will use an open bid process. Bids on each contract will be made in the thread I create titled "Survivor Round4 - The Contracts". Details on the costs for each contract will be described in the second post I make in that thread. You may not revoke a bid once submitted. If another team underbids you, then your bid is removed and you may apply the surplus to another bid if you wish.

In an attempt to clarify the challenge, here is an example of bidding on one contract
Contract 1: IC₀= $115,000.
f₀(x) = uniformly distributed on [125,000, 175,000].
Maximum bid allowed: 300,000

12 p.m. Team magenta bids $300,000. They can only do this if they have $115,000 in surplus that is not tied up in other bids.

1 p.m. Team cyan bids $275,000. Again, they have to have enough free surplus to do this. This frees up the $115,000 in surplus for Team magenta to use for bidding on this or any other contract.

2 p.m. Team yellow bids $255,000, assuming they have $125,000 in free surplus. This frees up Team cyan's $125,000 in surplus.

If no lower bids were submitted before the deadline, Team yellow would win this contract. The random number which had been pregenerated from f₀(x) would then be revealed. If it were $135,000, then Team yellow would record a profit of $255,000 - $135,000 = $120,000.
Note that the initial investment cost was included as part of the total cost and was not in addition to it.

Scoring is simple. The team with the most money at the end of the day wins. The team with the second most money takes second. The team with the least amount of money will be going to Tribal Council.

Game ethics for this Challenge only: In business, companies who collaborate on competition issues are not merely engaging in unethical behavior but illegal Anti-Trust behavior. So for this Challenge only, collaboration between teams is not allowed. This includes specific bid amounts and no-bid agreements. If you are unsure what this means, please ask.

Reminder: Bids are binding! If you tie up too much of your surplus on any collection of projects, not only will you be unable to bid on the other contracts but you will give your competition more leeway to submit high bids on them. Bid wisely!

Bidding will open when I publish the list of contracts, approximately 3:00pm on Wednesday. Bidding will close at 8:00pm Thursday. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN ROUND 4.

(edited solely to fix subscript problems)

[E. Blackadder]

Even Google IPO is simpler. Why not just have them eat cicadas and be done with it?

[BC]

Even Google IPO is simpler. Why not just have them eat cicadas and be done with it?

Is there an emoticon for that?

[E. Blackadder]

I've heard that if sauteed with a bit of butter, they aren't bad. Low in carbs, too! :exams:

[urysohn]

Reminder:
The initial investment cost for each contract serves as a floor on the cost. Each contract also comes with a cap on the cost, labeled "total cost will not exceed...". This floor and ceiling will alter the distribution otherwise provided.

All distributions are specified by the name of the distribution, together with its parameters, rather than by an explicit formulaic description of the distribution. This site contains a good description of the functions used, including expected values and variance of each function:
http://www.crml.uab.edu/matlab/toolbox/stats/ch2_ref2.html

Contract 1
X₁ ~ Constant (75,000)
Initial investment cost = 30,000
Maximum allowable bid = 150,000
Total cost will not exceed 75,000

Contract 2
X₂ ~ Uniform (α=125,000; β=300,000)
Initial investment cost = 95,000
Maximum allowable bid = 500,000
Total cost will not exceed 300,000

Contract 3
X₃ ~ Uniform (α=190,000; β=275,000)
Initial investment cost = 140,000
Maximum allowable bid = 425,000
Total cost will not exceed 275,000

Contract 4
X₄ ~ Lognormal (μ=12; σ=0.9)
Initial investment cost = 50,000
Maximum allowable bid = 900,000
Total cost will not exceed 675,000

Contract 5
X₅ ~ Lognormal (μ=13; σ=0.7)
Initial investment cost = 175,000
Maximum allowable bid = 1,000,000
Total cost will not exceed 1,200,000
(note: total cost could exceed maximum allowable bid)

Contract 6
X₆ ~ Normal (μ=125,000; σ=30,000)
Initial investment cost = 80,000
Maximum allowable bid = 300,000
Total cost will not exceed 200,000

Contract 7
X₇ ~ Normal (μ=300,000; σ=100,000)
Initial investment cost = 130,000
Maximum allowable bid = 750,000
Total cost will not exceed 500,000

Contract 8
X₈ ~ Exponential (μ=260,000)
Initial investment cost = 25,000
Maximum allowable bid = 850,000
Total cost will not exceed 700,000

Contract 9
X₉ ~ Exponential (μ=315,000)
Initial investment cost = 90,000
Maximum allowable bid = 1,250,000
Total cost will not exceed 1,200,000

Contract 10
X₁₀ ~ Normal (μ=500,000; σ=75,000)
Initial investment cost = 200,000
Maximum allowable bid = 800,000
Total cost will not exceed 750,000


Bidding is now officially open!

[the mole]

I would like to officially announce that Mole Re™ is open for business. Prudent teams are invited to insure themselves against adverse RF financial events. Mole Re™ will insure against costs exceeding the 85th percentile of any distribution. While Mole Re™ premiums may not be the lowest, they are certainly less costly than a Tribal Council.

Mole Re™ -- A name you can trust.

[E. Blackadder]

According to their own data, Mole Re has a negative surplus position and is under investigation by the ROARI. Make it easy on yourselves, and just hand over the loot.

Operators are standing by.

..................................................

And beware any data you get from UAB. I've seen their math department. Not pretty.

[VernSchil]

Is there a minimum increment? I don't want to see teams get into $1 bidding wars.

[aces219]

Is there a minimum increment? I don't want to see teams get into $1 bidding wars.

Ury said elsewhere that there is not, but maybe the teams can agree to one so as to not go insane. $1000? Of course, that wouldn't make sense when down to the very end of the bidding war, so maybe we should just not be dumb.

[Darth Tater]

Even Google IPO is simpler. Why not just have them eat cicadas and be done with it?

Everytime I think about eating grubs or caterpillars, I get butterflies in my stomach.

[the mole]

Is there a minimum increment? I don't want to see teams get into $1 bidding wars.

Ury said elsewhere that there is not, but maybe the teams can agree to one so as to not go insane. $1000?
All bids are binding. For anti-trust reasons, I cannot comment on whether Mole Construction would bid as little as $1000 for any of these projects. Which of the projects did you just bid on, aces?

[the mole]

According to their own data, Mole Re has a negative surplus position and is under investigation by the ROARI. Make it easy on yourselves, and just hand over the loot.

These allegations are completely unfounded. Mole Re™ maintains very conservative reserve margins, deposited with trustworthy Swiss banking institutions.

ROARI's investigation was clearly instigated by certain unsavory competitors who are apparently looking to profit from creating uncertainty and insecurity in the real estate market. Do not allow the shrill voices of the insecure to deter you from making a wise investment.

Mole Re™ -- A name you can trust.

[E. Blackadder]

Opinion about Mole Re™ is mixed.


I would encourage all my competitors to fully insure with Mole Re™. I personally have invested a significant amount in Mole Re™ puts!

-------------- Source: Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2003


An interaction with Mole Re™ is as appropriate as a vote for George Bush in 2004.


------------- Source: Investor's Business Daily, March 23, 2004


Mole Re™ has transferred its employees from a Defined Benefit plan to a Cash Balance plan with a "wearaway" transition rule.


------------ Source: Adny Lang's Website, posted March, April, and May 2001


I support Mole Re™, and you should, too.


------------ Source: Crustatian Times, November 16, 2002

[the mole]

The credentials of Mole Re™ speak for themselves:

Insuring with Mole Re™ was the best business decision I ever made.
-- Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2003

I turn to Mole Re™ when I need a reinsurer that I can trust.
-- Oprah Winfrey show, November 24, 2003

Thanks to Mole Re™, we are rebuilding New York.
-- New York Times, February 11, 2002


Who are you going to trust -- Andy Lang, or Mole Re™?

Now accepting reinsurance offers on contracts 1-10. Please specify the percentile at which you would like to reinsure -- 85th, 90th, or 95th. Custom arrangements are available for major accounts. Rates start as low as $RF 0.10 per dollar of reinsurance coverage. PM me for a full propspectus.

Mole Re™ -- A name you can trust.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I invented Mole Re™.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

The post is dedicated only to the remaining participants in this challenge:

:sleep2:

Including me... :oops:

[4sigma]

This challenge certainly is off to a slow start.

To get things moving, σσσσ construction would like to bid $800,000 on contract 10, since the max bid of $800,000 exceeds the mean cost of $500,000 by exactly 4σ.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

:sleep2: This is pathetic! :swear:

[the mole]

:sleep2: This is pathetic! :swear:

Placing maximum bids on Contracts 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9 produces the maximum expected profit while also conveniently using all of the initial surplus.
They've done the analysis, yet won't back it up with bids. Can it be that team :D is really going to throw this challenge to avoid letting J.T. steal EK from them at Tribal Council?

But has team :D forgotten that 0 gain or loss on contracts may not be sufficient to throw the challenge? EK, you need to make some absurdly low bids to be sure of losing.

[4sigma]

:sleep2: This is pathetic! :swear:

Why don't you do something to remedy it, then?

[urysohn]

Wow, 8 hours and still no bids? You're starting to make a guy think you're actually thinking before bidding! :lol:

Personally, I would have thought BC would have had these all modeled by now. He must be having a bit of trouble convincing EK that they might need to at least consider that some of the other teams might possibly underbid them on a contract. :P

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Personally, I would have thought BC would have had these all modeled by now. He must be having a bit of trouble convincing EK that they might need to at least consider that some of the other teams might possibly underbid them on a contract. :P
:swear: You are not that far off from what is actually happening. I swear I may just bid for spite tomorrow morning! :wink:

[4sigma]

If nothing else, someone should put in some bids in order to make everyone redo their analysis.

[Hagbard Celine]

This is starting to look very familiar (http://www.ebay.com/).

[the mole]

Since urysohn is unavailable this morning, I checked his inbox. I'm going to answer this one publicly, since it could explain why teams aren't ready to bid.

I've spent hours looking at the stat page in your link, and still cannot understand the distributions in contracts 1,2, and 3. Can you clarify them?
X1 ~ Constant (75,000) means the cost will always be 75,000.
X2 ~ Uniform (α=125,000; β=300,000) was described on the site, except it used A and B instead of the α and β ury used to enhance the actuarial mystique. Same for X3.

Since that site has nothing about the Constant distribution, do you have any suggestions on how I can incorporate it into my model?
Since this question involves actuarial technique and judgment, an answer does not violate anti-trust rules. As with many actuarial situations, there is no single right approach. It is important to use tools you are familiar with and apply them properly.
Team Blue is modeling it as normal with mean 75,000 and standard deviation .0001.
Team Red is modeling is as uniform on [74999.5, 75000.5].
EK flipped 75,000 coins and added his total heads to his total tails.

All three approaches may be acceptable, depending on the accuracy needed. EK's is the most precise.

[Hagbard Celine]

EK's is the most precise.

:lol:

[BC]

:lolup: :rofl: :notworth: :burn: :roll2: :moon2: :clap:


Mole, that may be the first post in this game you've made that was worth reading.

[E. Blackadder]

EK flipped 75,000 coins and added his total heads to his total tails.

All three approaches may be acceptable, depending on the accuracy needed. EK's is the most precise.

... but not the most accurate, since EK lost 13 of the coins to the ceiling.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Oooh, I think I am close to making some bids and breaking the seal . ;)

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 900,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 850,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 1,250,000 on Contract 9.

YEAH WE DO!!!

TAKE THAT CODKNOCKERS!!! WOOOOOO!!!

[cubedbee]

Interesting...

[the mole]

Interesting...
You mean you would have expected a bull to have the balls to bid on #5, even though it could mean a loss? Or that BC is auditing EK's calculations on #1 before he's allowed to bid?

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Interesting...
Team :cry: has organized a committee and may or may not issue an "Interesting..." response based on their committee's recommendation.

:sleep2:

[cubedbee]

Red team bids 1,200,000 on Contract 9.

[Will Durant]

EK flipped 75,000 coins and added his total heads to his total tails.

All three approaches may be acceptable, depending on the accuracy needed. EK's is the most precise.

... but not the most accurate, since EK lost 13 of the coins to the ceiling.

... and another 7 landed on their edge.

[Will Durant]

Interesting...
Team :cry: has organized a committee and may or may not issue an "Interesting..." response based on their committee's recommendation.

:sleep2:
Actually, Team Blue has authorized me to issue an official response to those bids.

Those are the stupidest bids we've ever seen. Only a codknocker would make bids like that (so I know BC had nothing to do with them). The only reason nobody else from Team Blue has posted yet is because they haven't been able to control their hysterical laughing long enough to reach their keyboards.

:duh:

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 1,100,000 on Contract 9.

[cubedbee]

Red Team bids 750,000 on Contract 8.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :cry: bids :sleep2:

Will Durant, are you preparing a statement on how :D and :x are colluding by participating in this challenge while your candy bottoms sit on the sidelines? I hope you are having fun watching us. Pay attention and your team just may learn something about what it takes to be men.

:P

[Hagbard Celine]

I don't know whether you're a bull amongst steers or not, but you're definitely full of bull!

Bull-Loney!

Oh man. I'm not just witty, I'm awesome.

Don't worry about team :o , we have a Master Plan, which concludes with us winning the challenge.

Have you thought up your exit speech yet, for when you get voted off?

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids
Contract 2 500,000
Contract 4 850,000
Contract 7 750,000
Contract 8 700,000
Contract 9 1,000,000

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Have you thought up your exit speech yet, for when you get voted off?
Of course. I figure I’m not allowed to divulge game secrets at that time so I’ll go with the routine joy-joy speech followed by song lyrics.

I think you should give as much consideration to your exit speech as your team has spent whining, but of course the hours in a day are limited.

:viola:

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 750,000 on Contract 4.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 700,000 on Contract 4.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 150,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 775,000 on Contract 9.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 650,000 on contract 7.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 800,000 on contract 10.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 8.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 140,000 on contract 1.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team 8-) bids 300,000 on Contract 6.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 115,000 on contract 1.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 450,000 on Contract 2.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 400,000 on contract 2.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

:bump:

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 575,000 on Contract 4.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 500,000 on Contract 4.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 550,000 on Contract 8.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 500,000 on contract 8.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 525,000 on Contract 8.

How does the :cry: team think they are doing so far? Are you in over your heads? It doesn’t look so good does it?

:lol:

I see you are sticking to the simpler distribution functions. Would you like me to explain the others for you?

[aces219]

too late.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

too late.
Team :D bids 490,000 on Contract 8.

I'll take that contract. Thank you.

[E. Blackadder]

No warranty is expressed or implied.
Sunk in investments:

8-) 365K
:D 385K
:shake: 125K
http://w1.511.telia.com/~u51102888/anims/animal3/gopher.gif 140K

Contract 1
X1 ~ Constant (75,000)
Initial investment cost = 30,000
Maximum allowable bid = 150,000
Total cost will not exceed 75,000
:shake: 115,000

Contract 2
X2 ~ Uniform (α=125,000; β=300,000)
Initial investment cost = 95,000
Maximum allowable bid = 500,000
Total cost will not exceed 300,000
:shake: 400,000

Contract 3
X3 ~ Uniform (α=190,000; β=275,000)
Initial investment cost = 140,000
Maximum allowable bid = 425,000
Total cost will not exceed 275,000
http://w1.511.telia.com/~u51102888/anims/animal3/gopher.gif 139,000

Contract 4
X4 ~ Lognormal (μ=12; σ=0.9)
Initial investment cost = 50,000
Maximum allowable bid = 900,000
Total cost will not exceed 675,000
8-) 450,000

Contract 5
X5 ~ Lognormal (μ=13; σ=0.7)
Initial investment cost = 175,000
Maximum allowable bid = 1,000,000
Total cost will not exceed 1,200,000
(note: total cost could exceed maximum allowable bid)
:D ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!

Contract 6
X6 ~ Normal (μ=125,000; σ=30,000)
Initial investment cost = 80,000
Maximum allowable bid = 300,000
Total cost will not exceed 200,000
:D 290,000


Contract 7
X7 ~ Normal (μ=300,000; σ=100,000)
Initial investment cost = 130,000
Maximum allowable bid = 750,000
Total cost will not exceed 500,000
:D 625,000


Contract 8
X8 ~ Exponential (μ=260,000)
Initial investment cost = 25,000
Maximum allowable bid = 850,000
Total cost will not exceed 700,000
8-) 450,000


Contract 9
X9 ~ Exponential (μ=315,000)
Initial investment cost = 90,000
Maximum allowable bid = 1,250,000
Total cost will not exceed 1,200,000
8-) 650,000

Contract 10
X10 ~ Normal (μ=500,000; σ=75,000)
Initial investment cost = 200,000
Maximum allowable bid = 800,000
Total cost will not exceed 750,000
8-) 750,000

[patterns in static]

Contract 4
X4 ~ Lognormal (μ=12; σ=0.9)
Initial investment cost = 50,000
Maximum allowable bid = 900,000
Total cost will not exceed 675,000
:D 490,000


I think this should be:
:D 500,000

[BC]

No, he's right. It's 490,000 right now.

[aces219]

I agree with your spreadsheet except that Green's bid on contract 4 is 500,000.

[aces219]

No, he's right. It's 490,000 right now.

You just underbid yourselves? O...K...

[patterns in static]

Team :D bids 500,000 on Contract 4.

too late.
Team :D bids 490,000 on Contract 8.

[BC]

No, he's right. It's 490,000 right now.

Yes, I was looking at the wrong bid. It's 500,000. My bad.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Come on team :cry: You can still go lower than me on 8 and it still be your best contract. :lol:

[Ebenezer Kohl]

No, he's right. It's 490,000 right now.

You just underbid yourselves? O...K...

So there isn’t any whining, err, I mean argument from the :cry: team…

Team :D bids 490,000 on Contract 4.

[patterns in static]

No, he's right. It's 490,000 right now.

You just underbid yourselves? O...K...

So there isn’t any whining, err, I mean argument from the :cry: team…

Team :D bids 490,000 on Contract 4.

Alright, EK, but if we keep the contract at that price and end up losing by less than 10,000, you're gone. :wink:

[Will Durant]

No, he's right. It's 490,000 right now.

You just underbid yourselves? O...K...

So there isn’t any whining, err, I mean argument from the :cry: team…

Team :D bids 490,000 on Contract 4.I hope you lose by $9900 just for being such a codknocker.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Hey Will, are you analyzing this or what? We are dominating your team. I would be embarrassed by all the mistakes your team has made thus far.

Where is cubedbee? Has his team conceded to us again? :lol: Hey, cubedbee, there isn’t supposed to be collusion in this game. You should at least try and keep pace with :D

[cubedbee]

Where is cubedbee? Has his team conceded to us again? :lol: Hey, cubedbee, there isn’t supposed to be collusion in this game. You should at least try and keep pace with :DDude, give me a break. I took a lunch break. As for the rest of my team, I don't know what's up with them. I've been acting unilaterally.

[aces219]

Wow, all this trash talking is attractive, EK.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 488,000 on contract 8.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team 8-) bids 475,000 on Contract 8.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Wow, all this trash talking is attractive, EK.
:D Yes, I know. [Looks in mirror] :wink: How you doin'?

[aces219]

Wow, all this trash talking is attractive, EK.
:D Yes, I know. [Looks in mirror] :wink: How you doin'?

I'm tired and overwhelmed by work. How 'bout yourself?

[the mole]

So far, teams other than Mole Construction have rightly avoided bidding on contract 5, which risks a loss exceeding the maximum bid.

In the interest of full disclosure, Mole Construction has currently subcontracted this contract to Team :D. By doing do, Team :D has avoided the high capital outlay, and has mitigated their downside risk via risk-sharing.

Of course, no other team could arrive at such a profitable arrangement alone. However, I am an equal opportunity mole. I therefore remind all teams that they have the option to take advantage of Mole Re™ financial services. Mole Re™ will reinsure teams against the risk of a negative position resulting from unexpected cost overruns on any given contract.

Again in the intersts of full disclosure, I am pleased to announce that Mole Re™ has been recently engaged by Team 8-) , which enabled them to bid on the very lucrative contracts #4 and #8, while avoiding any downside risk. All prudent teams are advised to PM Mole Re™ for quotes.

Mole Re™: starting from $RF 0.10 per dollar insured
Avoiding Tribal Council: Priceless

Mole Re™ -- A name you can trust.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I’m in good humor, most likely due to all the trash talking thus far. Let’s see if :D can’t shake things up a bit.

Team :D bids 1,000,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 7.

[E. Blackadder]

Employ Edmund's Discreet Actuarial Services and avoid stepping into the Mole Hole™. Learn:
How to think almost as well as BC*; identify usefully hazardous construction projects; Bluffing; The identity of eloM ehT; the cheesy spreadsheet used to generate the actual cost amounts; how to sidestep the "antitrust" law for this stage. and much more!

*Void for BC, his relatives, anyone who is employed by BC, and anyone who has beaten BC in a game in the last 30 days.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 750,000 on Contract 10.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 465,000 on Contract 8.

[the mole]

EK flipped 75,000 coins and added his total heads to his total tails.

All three approaches may be acceptable, depending on the accuracy needed. EK's is the most precise.

... but not the most accurate, since EK lost 13 of the coins to the ceiling.

... and another 7 landed on their edge.

7 points for team Guildenstern!

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 750,000 on Contract 9.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 9.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 650,000 on Contract 9.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 640,000 on Contract 9.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

cubedbee, you definitely deleted a bid. Is that allowed?

[aces219]

I think you can delete, but not edit.

Team :shake: bids 630,000 for contract 9

and 600,000 for contract 7

[E. Blackadder]

delete <> revoke? I think not.

If only you had used Edmund's Discreet Actuarial Services, instead of those other guys.

[cubedbee]

I don't know. It doesn't seem to specify in the rules. In past games, we've been allowed to delete posts if we can do it before someone else posts, but not to edit them. I'm willing to repost the bid if its going to cause problems or resentment with your team.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 280,000 on contract 6.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I think you can delete, but not edit.
As long as we agree, that is fine. A team member of mine has at least one edit on this thread, but there was no bid.

[patterns in static]

I think you can delete, but not edit.
As long as we agree, that is fine. A team member of mine has at least one edit on this thread, but there was no bid.

I was just editing it to fix a quote tag :oops:

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 550,000 on Contract 7.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I was just editing it to fix a quote tag :oops:
Yo, I know man. I'd just hate to agree to something that could be used against us as a technicality.

Team :D bids on 440,000 Contract 4.
Team :D bids on 590,000 Contract 7.
Team :D bids on 625,000 Contract 9.

[cubedbee]

I'll replace my deleted bid, so now any traces of controversy should be eliminated.

Team 8-) bids 450,000 on Contract 8.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 700,000 on contract 10.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 900,000 on Contract 5.

[cubedbee]

Let's get all the contracts in play.

Team 8-) bids 425,000 on Contract 3.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

These other teams are making terrible decisions. It is like they are acting without consulting the BC Spreadsheet Bid Generator. I have entered a couple of your bids into the program and I swear I have heard giggling emote from the computer. That can’t be good.

[aces219]

Wow, EK, you must have inside knowledge of ury's random numbers then.

[4sigma]

When I enter the current set of bids into my version of the spreadsheet, I get a general protection fault.

[the mole]

Wow, EK, you must have inside knowledge of ury's random numbers then.
He got them from me. He's gotten in such a habit of trusting me that he didn't notice I avoid the key phrase "Trust me" this time. Team :D should blame him, not me, for their misfortune.

[E. Blackadder]

No warranty is expressed or implied.
Sunk in investments:

8-) 205K
:D 265K
:shake: 405K
http://w1.511.telia.com/~u51102888/anims/animal3/gopher.gif 140K

Contract 1
X1 ~ Constant (75,000)
Initial investment cost = 30,000
Maximum allowable bid = 150,000
Total cost will not exceed 75,000
:shake: 115,000

Contract 2
X2 ~ Uniform (α=125,000; β=300,000)
Initial investment cost = 95,000
Maximum allowable bid = 500,000
Total cost will not exceed 300,000
:shake: 400,000

Contract 3
X3 ~ Uniform (α=190,000; β=275,000)
Initial investment cost = 140,000
Maximum allowable bid = 425,000
Total cost will not exceed 275,000
http://w1.511.telia.com/~u51102888/anims/animal3/gopher.gif 139,000

Contract 4
X4 ~ Lognormal (μ=12; σ=0.9)
Initial investment cost = 50,000
Maximum allowable bid = 900,000
Total cost will not exceed 675,000
8-) 440,000

Contract 5
X5 ~ Lognormal (μ=13; σ=0.7)
Initial investment cost = 175,000
Maximum allowable bid = 1,000,000
Total cost will not exceed 1,200,000
(note: total cost could exceed maximum allowable bid)
:D ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!

Contract 6
X6 ~ Normal (μ=125,000; σ=30,000)
Initial investment cost = 80,000
Maximum allowable bid = 300,000
Total cost will not exceed 200,000
:shake: 280,000


Contract 7
X7 ~ Normal (μ=300,000; σ=100,000)
Initial investment cost = 130,000
Maximum allowable bid = 750,000
Total cost will not exceed 500,000
8-) 550,000


Contract 8
X8 ~ Exponential (μ=260,000)
Initial investment cost = 25,000
Maximum allowable bid = 850,000
Total cost will not exceed 700,000
8-) 450,000


Contract 9
X9 ~ Exponential (μ=315,000)
Initial investment cost = 90,000
Maximum allowable bid = 1,250,000
Total cost will not exceed 1,200,000
:D 625,000

Contract 10
X10 ~ Normal (μ=500,000; σ=75,000)
Initial investment cost = 200,000
Maximum allowable bid = 800,000
Total cost will not exceed 750,000
:shake: 700,000

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Wow, EK, you must have inside knowledge of ury's random numbers then.
I think I may have read it on the ghost forum. ;) This is not true.

Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 875,000 on Contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Summary of current bids
Contract 1: 115,000 Blue
Contract 2: 400,000 Blue
Contract 3: 425,000 Red
Contract 4: 440,000 Green
Contract 5: 875,000 Green
Contract 6: 280,000 Blue
Contract 7: 550,000 Red
Contract 8: 440,000 Green
Contract 9: 625,000 Green
Contract 10: 700,000 Blue

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 650,000 on Contract 10.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 600,000 on contract 10.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 350,000 on Contract 2.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 300,000 on contract 2.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 6.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 270,000 on contract 6.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 250,000 on Contract 6.

[4sigma]

A very determined team :shake: refuses to be outbid on their existing contracts. How much profit can they hold on to?

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 225,000 on contract 6.

[cubedbee]

Wow, I just can't get a contract and hold on to it.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 850,000 on Contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 540,000 on Contract 7.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 530,000 on Contract 7.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Summary of current bids
Contract 1: 115,000 Blue
Contract 2: 300,000 Blue
Contract 3: 425,000 Red
Contract 4: 440,000 Green
Contract 5: 840,000 Green
Contract 6: 225,000 Blue
Contract 7: 530,000 Red
Contract 8: 440,000 Green
Contract 9: 625,000 Green
Contract 10: 600,000 Blue

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 290,000 on Contract 2.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 280,000 on contract 2 and 620,000 on contract 9.

[cubedbee]

Can someone tell me how to calculate the expected value of a lognormal distribution?

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Can someone tell me how to calculate the expected value of a lognormal distribution?
You don't need to know. The lognormal distribution contracts belong to :D

[aces219]

Can someone tell me how to calculate the expected value of a lognormal distribution?
You don't need to know. The lognormal distribution contracts belong to :D

Maybe someone should teach team :D how to calculate the variance of a lognormal distribution.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 425,000 on Contract 4.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 9.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 400,000 on Contract 4.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 590,000 on contract 9.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 575,000 on Contract 9.

[aces219]

Team :shake: bids 550,000 on contract 9.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 525,000 on Contract 9.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 500,000 on contract 9.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 575.000 on Contract 10.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 525,000 on Contract 7.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 570,000 on contract 10.

[Gandalf]

team :shake: bids 570,000 on contract 10.
You will not get it for that. Cubedbee unwisely bid 575.000 :crazy:

Edited to add: I have no official standing to say how ury will or should interpret b^3's bid.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

team :shake: bids 570,000 on contract 10.
You will not get it for that. Cubedbee unwisely bid 575.000 :crazy:
:lol:

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 570,000 on contract 10.
You will not get it for that. Cubedbee unwisely bid 575.000 :crazy:

That's a good point.

[cubedbee]

team :shake: bids 570,000 on contract 10.
You will not get it for that. Cubedbee unwisely bid 575.000 :crazy:

That's a good point.I was obviously using metric notation.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 570,000 on contract 10.
You will not get it for that. Cubedbee unwisely bid 575.000 :crazy:

That's a good point.I was obviously using metric notation.

Tough.

[aces219]

Are you allowed to bid less than the investment cost? In reading the rules, I don't see why not.

The rules also say that you can't revoke a bid once submitted. I guess technically that would mean no deletes, but since ury is not around to clarify I guess we made our own rule. The deleted bid got resubmitted anyway so it doesn't matter.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Are you allowed to bid less than the investment cost?
I see no rule that says you can't. I doubt urysohn would have a rule to save you from yourself.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 830,000 on contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

team :shake: bids 830,000 on contract 5.
This bid assumes cubedbee's bid counts because otherwise :cry: doesn't have the surplus.

I also agree cubedbee's bid should count.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 830,000 on contract 5.
This bid assumes cubedbee's bid counts because otherwise :cry: doesn't have the surplus.

I also agree cubedbee's bid should count.

That's correct.

[cubedbee]

My intent was quite clear. The number 575000 can just as validly be written as 575,000 or 575.000. Ury never specified that we had to use American notation. Since the "." and the "," are interchangeable, one must look at the number of digits beyond the symbol to divine the intent.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

My intent was quite clear. The number 575000 can just as validly be written as 575,000 or 575.000. Ury never specified that we had to use American notation. Since the "." and the "," are interchangeable, one must look at the number of digits beyond the symbol to divine the intent.
There is an expectation that one notation be used and you were clearly using the comma before.

[cubedbee]

My intent was quite clear. The number 575000 can just as validly be written as 575,000 or 575.000. Ury never specified that we had to use American notation. Since the "." and the "," are interchangeable, one must look at the number of digits beyond the symbol to divine the intent.
There is an expectation that one notation be used and you were clearly using the comma before.Where is that expectation outlined? If you guys really want to be pricks win this challenge on a technicality, then appeal this issue to Ury. I'm fairly confident that he'll rule on my behalf anyway. If you'd like to actually play the game and see who wins, then you'll accept the bid as it should have been.

[aces219]

My intent was quite clear. The number 575000 can just as validly be written as 575,000 or 575.000. Ury never specified that we had to use American notation. Since the "." and the "," are interchangeable, one must look at the number of digits beyond the symbol to divine the intent.
There is an expectation that one notation be used and you were clearly using the comma before.Where is that expectation outlined? If you guys really want to be pricks win this challenge on a technicality, then appeal this issue to Ury. I'm fairly confident that he'll rule on my behalf anyway. If you'd like to actually play the game and see who wins, then you'll accept the bid as it should have been.

Cubedbee,
I think if you were in our position, you would do absolutely the same thing. That said, I'd like to hear ury's opinion.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I would be difficult to accept both that bid and future bids for :cry: because they busted their surplus.

Team :D bids 825,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 9.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 820,000 on contract 5.

[aces219]

You're correct that we would have busted our surplus, but that's not our fault. I think you need to assume that my 570k bid never happened or otherwise the game is broken. This way, no matter what ury decides, it's frozen at 575 something.

[Gandalf]

With luck ury will show up in time to make a ruling when there is still plenty of time for bids. It seems unreasonable to say that blue's capital is tied up in #10 when literal reading of the rules says it is not.

[VernSchil]

I'm gonna side with B^3's 575,000.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Summary of current bids
Contract 1: 115,000 Blue
Contract 2: 280,000 Blue
Contract 3: 425,000 Red
Contract 4: 400,000 Green
Contract 5: 820,000 Blue
Contract 6: 225,000 Blue
Contract 7: 525,000 Green
Contract 8: 440,000 Green
Contract 9: 475,000 Green
Contract 10: 575.000 Red

Of course you would side with your alliance buddy, Vern. Thanks for showing up though you have been no help thus far.

[4sigma]

I believe that ury isn't around today. I recognize that I have no particular authority as an arbiter, but here is my opinion, FWIW:

I believe it is clear that CubedBee intended to bid $575,000, and his bid therefore should count as $575,000.

Due to the confusion, I would consider all of team :shake:'s subsequent bids to be valid, even if this puts them temporarily over their allowed investment cost. If they momentarily own more contracts than they ought to, that is just a temporary advantage for them. As teams continue to bid against team :shake:, team :shake: will free up surplus and can continue bidding.

[aces219]

I think that is fair. I am not the team :o captain, but J.T. is not around at the moment.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 500000 on Contract 7.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

cubedbee made a mistake. That should count as a mistake. He did not intentionally change format. Had he entered a wrong number that would also be a mistake whether he intended that number or not. People live with their mistakes.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 810,000 on contract 5.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 800,000 on contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 790,000 on contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I just went to go check the NewTeam site. Big surprise. Still no offer of assistance from Vern. You must be sitting mighty pretty. Huh, Vern?

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 750,000 on contract 5.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Why do you want 5 so much, aces219? I'm trying to collect the set and charge double the rent on the lognormals! :D

[aces219]

So underbid me. ;)

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.

[4sigma]

Have we established any agreement between team :shake: and team 8-) about who currently has the bid on contract 10, and at what price?

I think we should hear from both teams on this.

[aces219]

No.

[cubedbee]

I'm willing to ignore aces bid, and say that I currently have the contract at 575,000.

[aces219]

I'm fine with that.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I'm willing to ignore aces bid, and say that I currently have the contract at 575,000.
I am sure you would but you bought it at 575.000.

Summary of current bids
Contract 1: 115,000 Blue
Contract 2: 280,000 Blue
Contract 3: 425,000 Red
Contract 4: 400,000 Green
Contract 5: 750,000 Blue
Contract 6: 225,000 Blue
Contract 7: 485,000 Green
Contract 8: 440,000 Green
Contract 9: 475,000 Green
Contract 10: 575.000 Red

[4sigma]

I think this is a fair settlement. If team :shake: and team 8-) are in agreement, I would recommend that this interpretation stands.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I think this is a fair settlement. If team :shake: and team 8-) are in agreement, I would recommend that this interpretation stands.
It does not stand.

[4sigma]

well, we'll leave that up to ury, I suppose. In any event, at least we agree that team 8-) currently holds contract #10.

If this point is in doubt, I expect that we won't see any more bidding on contract #10. Depending on ury's ultimate ruling, this may or may not be to the advantage of team 8-).

[VernSchil]

I just went to go check the NewTeam site. Big surprise. Still no offer of assistance from Vern. You must be sitting mighty pretty. Huh, Vern?

Sorry. I had forgotten about that NewTeam site. (don't worry. I'm not doing any scheming. I've actually been really busy with stuff this week and haven't had much time to think about RF Survivor). I knew I wouldn't have much time to work on this challenge and actually thought it was one in which team collaboration wouldn't necessarily help.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I just went to go check the NewTeam site. Big surprise. Still no offer of assistance from Vern. You must be sitting mighty pretty. Huh, Vern?

Sorry. I had forgotten about that NewTeam site. (don't worry. I'm not doing any scheming. I've actually been really busy with stuff this week and haven't had much time to think about RF Survivor). I knew I wouldn't have much time to work on this challenge and actually thought it was one in which team collaboration wouldn't necessarily help.
You haven't been paying attention? :-? That makes the mole PM at our site even more interesting.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

well, we'll leave that up to ury, I suppose. In any event, at least we agree that team 8-) currently holds contract #10.
Agreed.

[cubedbee]

Team 8-) bids 435,000 on Contract 8 and 470,000 on Contract 9.

[aces219]

So is ury going to show up at the end and let us know the standings, or will we just have to suffer?

I have to go to the gym since it closes at 8 CDT...but I'm sticking it out until the bitter end!

[cubedbee]

Ury hasn't posted all day, so I doubt he'll be here at 8. We'll probably have to wait until tomorrow to know what happens.

[aces219]

Maybe the mole has the inside track.

[aces219]

This game is doing great things for my post count.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I hope you don't hate me, aces219. :love:

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 104,000 on contract 1.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 95,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 270,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 690,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 265,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 395,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.

[J.T.]

What was all of that that EK posted?

[Ebenezer Kohl]

What was all of that that EK posted?
Sort through it and tell me.

[aces219]

team :o bids 94,000 on contract 1.

[J.T.]

What was all of that that EK posted?
Sort through it and tell me.

You are incorrigible....

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 146,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 405,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 125,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 720,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 445,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 275,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 93,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 270,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 690,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 415,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 265,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 395,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 105,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 760,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 485,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 135,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 280,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 790,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 450,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 730,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 455,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 435,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 295,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 290,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 740,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 475,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 285,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 495,000 on Contract 9.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

:love:

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 92,000 on contract 1.

[cubedbee]

8-) Bids 75000 on contract 1

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Nice bid.

[patterns in static]

Forgive me, Urysohn!

Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 090,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 102,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 425,000 on Contract 3.
Team :D bids 300,000 on Contract 2.
Team :D bids 225,000 on Contract 6.
Team :D bids 840,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 625,000 on Contract 9.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.
Team :D bids 115,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 440,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 530,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 600,000 on Contract 10.

[aces219]

team :shake: bids 420,000 on contract 3.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

:smoke:

[cubedbee]

8-) 394000 for contract 9

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 91,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 393,000 on Contract 9.

[cubedbee]

8-) bids 350000 for contract 8

[cubedbee]

8-) 390000 for contract 9

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 91,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 389,000 on Contract 9.

[cubedbee]

8-) 385000 for contract 9

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team :D bids 91,000 on Contract 1.
Team :D bids 360,000 on Contract 4.
Team :D bids 700,000 on Contract 5.
Team :D bids 515,000 on Contract 7.
Team :D bids 365,000 on Contract 8.
Team :D bids 383,000 on Contract 9.

[J.T.]

I can't say much here, cause I'm pretty lost, but GO ACES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[patterns in static]

Time up?

[aces219]

Time's up.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Yes.

[cubedbee]

8-) bids 91,000 on Contract 1.
bids 359,000 on Contract 4.
bids 699,000 on Contract 5.
bids 514,000 on Contract 7.
bids 364,000 on Contract 8.
bids 382,000 on Contract 9.[/quote]

[cubedbee]

time

[Gandalf]

His first post has 270K on 4
690K on 5
415K on 7
265K on 8
395K on 9
I think

[aces219]

EK, since you know what your real bids were, why don't you just tell us?

[Ebenezer Kohl]

His first post has 270K on 4
690K on 5
415K on 7
265K on 8
395K on 9
I think
It is actually the second spam but yes. The initial hit was 95K on 1 but cubedbee made that unnecessary.

[aces219]

I did a good job of sorting through your crap.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I did a good job of sorting through your crap.
You did. You picked up on the 95K right away. The other good bids follow that mark.

[aces219]

To make your lives easier:

:shake: got 2 at 280,000
3 at 420,000
6 at 225,000

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Good night folks. :wave:

[aces219]

See ya later.

[the mole]

EK, you may regret that intentional posting of bids higher than your lower bid in an effort to mislead the opposition. I had asked urysohn about that possibility in advance, and he addressed it:
Silly ury, I said aces and J.T. Surely there is trust there. It's the case you couldn't understand that is more relevant. Suppose J.T. bids 200,000 on a deal. Suppose aces later bids 300,000. If an unaware Red and Green don't notice, they may bid 280,000 and think they would get it. They would not, would they?
If JT bids 200K and aces then bids 300K, I hope someone will correct it -- but either way 280K would not be the new bid. Shame on JT and aces for trying it, if it was intentional. Spankings for both.
If J.T. or aces were to administer your spanking, you might not mind so much, but when ury does...

patterns in static too...

[J.T.]

EK, I will be coming to your town tomorrow....You will need to meet me for your punishment.... :judge:

[urysohn]

just got back online. reviewing.... (and I hear there's some kind of dispute going on. hmmm)

[urysohn]

Took longer to read through than I thought. Now I'm going to need to go through it again to figure out which team has which bids.

I'm going to act like a grownup and treat the Red Team's bid of $575 as an honest error, quickly corrected, and recognize it as 575,000. And team that wants to act like a bunch of snivelling babies can officially contest that by sending a note to my inbox. It will be promptly laughed at, and then I will send you a polite note denying your protest.
I need to look through the details, but aces219's surplus overflow based on assuming that $575 bid actually stood will be ignored, assuming they quickly got back to an acceptable surplus position (looks like everyone agreed Red had the contract one way or the other, so it shouldn't be an issue).

Deleted posts are ignored. They didn't happen. Bids were not retracted, it is as if they were never made. That's why we keep having rules about "locking in posts". We didn't actually have a rule about editing bids this time -- I trusted you not to intentionally do so (and did not see any obvious attempts at this) and the penalties would have been absurdly punitive.

Official results will follow as soon as I get the kids to bed, but these were the actual costs:
p-value Actual cost
1 0.030908575 75,000.00
2 0.78859786 263,004.63
3 0.955053179 271,179.52
4 0.428443511 138,371.25
5 0.69445241 631,565.87
6 0.186282774 98,249.66
7 0.92709245 445,447.37
8 0.097924424 26,794.81
9 0.984613237 1,200,000.00
10 0.9877582 668,708.99
Yes, those are random numbers, even though 4 out of 10 are 90th percentile and the lowest p-value (right-tail area) is on the constant function. I don't know how the bids played out, but I'm guessing some of you got hosed :P

Thank you notes on any lengthy delays on a detailed bidding summary can be sent to the codnocker -- I'm sure you know who I mean :D

Now that the contest is over, anyone want to share how they planned their bids? Expected values? EV and variance? Anyone look at the specific tail risk or cumulative distribution function values for various p-values? Just curious.

At some point, I am going to take the final bids and run some Monte Carlo on it to find out who "should" have won.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I think these are the results:
Summary of current bids
Contract 1: 75,000 Red
Contract 2: 280,000 Blue
Contract 3: 420,000 Blue
Contract 4: 270,000 Green
Contract 5: 690,000 Green
Contract 6: 225,000 Blue
Contract 7: 415,000 Green
Contract 8: 265,000 Green
Contract 9: 389,000 Green
Contract 10: 575.000 Red

[Butters]

Actually, I think Red won Contract 9 for $382,000.

[Butters]

I think these are the results:
Summary of current bids
Contract 1: 75,000 Red
Contract 2: 280,000 Blue
Contract 3: 420,000 Blue
Contract 4: 270,000 Green
Contract 5: 690,000 Green
Contract 6: 225,000 Blue
Contract 7: 415,000 Green
Contract 8: 265,000 Green
Contract 9: 389,000 Green
Contract 10: 575.000 Red

8-) bids 91,000 on Contract 1.
bids 359,000 on Contract 4.
bids 699,000 on Contract 5.
bids 514,000 on Contract 7.
bids 364,000 on Contract 8.
bids 382,000 on Contract 9.[/quote]

Cubedbee got Contract 9 right at the deadline for $382,000. Otherwise, I believe EK's list is correct.

[Butters]

If I've calculated everything correctly, it looks like Team Red took the biggest loss due to their breakeven position on Contract 1, and their large losses on Contracts 9 & 10.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Team Red took the biggest loss because they bid 575 on 10. Otherwise we have another controversy when did the actual game end? Are bids at 7:00 counted or not?

[Ebenezer Kohl]

Bidding will close at 8:00pm Thursday.
Inclusive or exclusive. The devil is in the details.

[Butters]

It's ury's call, but I always assume that when a deadline is X:00, that it includes anything posted at X:00. Anything after X:00 is disallowed.

[Ebenezer Kohl]

EK, I will be coming to your town tomorrow....You will need to meet me for your punishment.... :judge:
:D

[Butters]

It's ury's call, but I always assume that when a deadline is X:00, that it includes anything posted at X:00. Anything after X:00 is disallowed.

You'll have to take my word for it, but even before ury posted the costs, I had Team Red winning Contract 9 as I was taking notes trying to figure out everything that had happened at the end of the game.

[aces219]

Here are the results I calculated:

1) :D 397,820.70
2) :shake: 292,566.19
3) :x -911,708.99

No tribal council for me. Hah!

[Ebenezer Kohl]

I love your figure, aces219! :love:

[the mole]

There are two cases that would give Blue four players:
1. Blue does not go to Tribal Council.
2. Blue goes to Tribal Council, loses a member, gains one from another team.

I predict (not in "trust me" mode, just an opinion) that Blue does not go to Tribal Council.
Thank you aces, for demonstrating that my judgment about Team Blue was correct.

[urysohn]

By the way, is anybody going to dispute whether or not anyone violated the surplus restrictions (given that I'm given aces a free-pass for bidding as though the 575.00 bid were legit)? Cause otherwise I'm going to just not look at that, I think.

[aces219]

I'm not. I was monitoring it all along.

[urysohn]

Summary of final bids
Contract 1: 75,000 Red
Contract 2: 280,000 Blue
Contract 3: 420,000 Blue
Contract 4: 270,000 Green
Contract 5: 690,000 Green
Contract 6: 225,000 Blue
Contract 7: 415,000 Green
Contract 8: 265,000 Green
Contract 9: 382,000 Red
Contract 10: 575,000 Red[/size]

Thanks to Green's "lovely" bidding in the last few pages, I am going to ironically have to take Green's summary of this as good -- with the exception that Contract 10 is accepted at 575,000. I am accepting 4sigma's arbitration of the matter during the day, given that the matter was quickly addressed and the two teams directly affected were in agreement on the treatment.

[urysohn]

Summary of final profits
Contract 1: 0 Red (75,000 bid; 75,000 cost)
Contract 2: 16,995.37 Blue (280,000 bid; 263,004.63 cost)
Contract 3: 148,820.48 Blue (420,000 bid; 271,179.52 cost)
Contract 4: 131,628.75 Green (270,000 bid; 138,371.25 cost)
Contract 5: 58,434.13 Green (690,000 bid; 631,565.87 cost)
Contract 6: 126,750.34 Blue (225,000 bid; 98,249.66 cost)
Contract 7: -30,447.37 Green (415,000 bid; 445,447.37 cost)
Contract 8: 238,205.19 Green (265,000 bid; 26,794.81 cost)
Contract 9: -818,000 Red (382,000 bid; 1,200,000.00 cost)
Contract 10: -93,708.99 Red (575,000 bid; 668,708.99 cost)


SUMMARY BY TEAM

Team Green
Contract 4: $ 131,628.75
Contract 5: $ 58,434.13
Contract 7: -$ 30,447.37
Contract 8: $ 238,205.19
TOTAL: 397,820.70

Team Blue
Contract 2: $ 16,995.37
Contract 3: $ 148,820.48
Contract 6: $ 126,750.34
TOTAL: $ 292,566.19

Team Red
Contract 1: $ 0
Contract 9: -$ 818,000
Contract 10: -$ 93,708.99
TOTAL: -$ 911,708.99


Team Green makes the biggest single-contract gain and rides it to a Challenge victory, earning immunity along the way! Team Blue makes a profit on every contract they land and take second, also earning immunity!
Team Red! Wow, Team Red, I'm assuming that once I make it through all the detail I can find some kind of logic and reasoning that led you to non-gains on all three contracts you landed, including massively ignoring the tail risk on Contract 9???

Team Red -- you will be visiting Tribal Council tomorrow!

[E. Blackadder]

What about reinsurance issues? Surely Mole Re™ is now in receivership. BWAHAHAHAHA!!!

[the mole]

Mole Re™ appreciates the concern from Edmund's Deceit Actuarial Services, but we are doing just fine, thank you very much.

While we had arrangements with team 8-) to reinsure contract 10 (contingent upon their bid being valued at $575K), Team 8-) did not bid on contract 9 until 2 minutes before the deadline, and there was not time to finalize an arrangement with them before time expired.

Had team 8-) left contract #9 in possession of Team :D, with whom we did have a reinsurance agreement, it is true that Mole Re™ would indeed have taken a serious reduction to its copious reserves. However, Team :D would have spent its premium very wisely, as the reinsurance protection would have enabled them to avoid Tribal Council.

Mole Re™ would like to take this opportunity to thanks its valued clients and we look forward to continuting to serve your financial needs in the future.

Mole Re™ -- A name you can trust.

[urysohn]

A bit after the fact, but according to my Monte Carlo runs, this is how the challenge would have played out under 10,000 random runs...

Winner
Blue 36.7%
Red 10.8%
Green 52.5%

Loser
Blue 13.2%
Red 55.6%
Green 31.2%


This confims aces219's "play it safe" strategy. They weren't going to win most of the time, but they weren't going to lose most of the time either. And not losing was the real point.

Even with their aggressive last minute betting, Red still had basically only a 50-50 shot at heading to Tribal Council.

And Green took some big risks, landing contracts which would have them win most of the time but have a pretty good chance of losing those times they did not get the outright victory.