Sng: Hand for discussion

[Drzy]

The situation pretty much speaks for itself. Should I fold or call?.....
_______

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is 600, ante 50 (4 handed)

Drz81 (1605)
UTG (8070)
Button (1370)
SB (2455)

Preflop: Drz81 is BB with Th, 4d.
UTG folds
Button raises to 1320 and is all in
SB folds
Drz81 ??

Call with junk, probably lose and be heavily crippled, but maybe win, knock him out, and get in the money? Or fold, go down to 955 with 300 SB plus ante coming with all other players 2000+?

[Spidurman]

Lay it. Bubble situation dictates you shouldn't be committing that many chips without a hand. You're not dead if you fold, but you will likely be able to dictate the terms of your all in bubble hand rather than him dictating for you.

[apoc]

could you use a form of the word dictate one more time next time you post :p

I do however agree here if you call and lose your all in on the if you fold you still got 1k chips which is enough to do damage if you hit on the SB or the next 2 hands you will be forced to make a move obviously but T 4 isnt the hand to do it.

[KnightsPG]

I agree, Fold

[Hummer]

Fold

[Drzy]

I went the other way and called. I thought it would be worth putting in the 720 for a pot of 3145. But I did of course lose, and went out on the forced all-in SB the next hand (Q9 vs Q8).

[Bama Gambler]

Tough one, but I think you should fold.

[DblDownTrent]

I went the other way and called.

What did he have?


FWIW, I would have folded, even if he is on a steal - you don't have much ammo to fight back with.

[Triweasel]

agree with the fold.
that way you can be the dictator.
we all know your goal is world domination.

[Not Mike]

I can't imagine ever calling with that hand pre-flop, even if I had the biggest stack on the table and he was the small stack.

[TiderInsider]

I can't imagine ever calling with that hand pre-flop, even if I had the biggest stack on the table and he was the small stack.

Not Mike, I think it is a lot more tempting to call this hand in the situation that Drzy is in, than if he was in the spot you describe above. All of your next moves might be negative EV. You just have to find the best negative EV opportunity and take it...and I agree with most folks that this is not that opportunity.

[Bama Gambler]

All of your next moves might be negative EV. You just have to find the best negative EV opportunity and take it...and I agree with most folks that this is not that opportunity.BINGO

[Not Mike]

I can't imagine ever calling with that hand pre-flop, even if I had the biggest stack on the table and he was the small stack.

Not Mike, I think it is a lot more tempting to call this hand in the situation that Drzy is in, than if he was in the spot you describe above. All of your next moves might be negative EV. You just have to find the best negative EV opportunity and take it...and I agree with most folks that this is not that opportunity.
I hear you... I guess my first rule is survival above all else, and I don't see any way (outside of a miracle) that I survive here. Then again, I've been getting housed lately.

[Expunge]

ok this is an interesting problem so i did a whole bunch of calculations. And its very very close.

Using the assumption that your proportion of chips = the chance that you win, and if you don't win you run the chances that you win second using your chips vs the other non winning opponents chips, repeat the combinations for third as well.

Ok my numbers say at the strat of the hand you expect to win 18.7% of the prize pool

If you fold you expect to win 12.0% of the pool.

If you call and win you expect to win 31.6% of the pool

If you call and lose you expect to win 3.5% of the pool.

Given this your break even call is if you think you have a 30.2% chance to win the hand. which is roughly equal to you going up against AKs.

These numbers do not take into account the order of the blinds, or that you will be in the SB next hand.

All this being said, i think the better move is to call in this situation.

p.s. i can forward you guys the excel file after i get home from golfing tonight. Its not laid out all that well but most of you will figure it out.

[Hummer]

ok this is an interesting problem so i did a whole bunch of calculations. And its very very close.

Using the assumption that your proportion of chips = the chance that you win, and if you don't win you run the chances that you win second using your chips vs the other non winning opponents chips, repeat the combinations for third as well.

Ok my numbers say at the strat of the hand you expect to win 18.7% of the prize pool

If you fold you expect to win 12.0% of the pool.

If you call and win you expect to win 31.6% of the pool

If you call and lose you expect to win 3.5% of the pool.

Given this your break even call is if you think you have a 30.2% chance to win the hand. which is roughly equal to you going up against AKs.

These numbers do not take into account the order of the blinds, or that you will be in the SB next hand.

All this being said, i think the better move is to call in this situation.

p.s. i can forward you guys the excel file after i get home from golfing tonight. Its not laid out all that well but most of you will figure it out.
You are starting to scare me sponge. :wink:

[Expunge]

ok this is an interesting problem so i did a whole bunch of calculations. And its very very close.

Using the assumption that your proportion of chips = the chance that you win, and if you don't win you run the chances that you win second using your chips vs the other non winning opponents chips, repeat the combinations for third as well.

Ok my numbers say at the strat of the hand you expect to win 18.7% of the prize pool

If you fold you expect to win 12.0% of the pool.

If you call and win you expect to win 31.6% of the pool

If you call and lose you expect to win 3.5% of the pool.

Given this your break even call is if you think you have a 30.2% chance to win the hand. which is roughly equal to you going up against AKs.

These numbers do not take into account the order of the blinds, or that you will be in the SB next hand.

All this being said, i think the better move is to call in this situation.

p.s. i can forward you guys the excel file after i get home from golfing tonight. Its not laid out all that well but most of you will figure it out.
You are starting to scare me sponge. :wink:

You must read many of my posts, if im only now starting to scare you.

[Expunge]

ST, did you get a chance to review that file?

does it look like my numbers are correct?