Presidential odds

[Aaron Brachowitz]

The current line (http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975) has Bush vs. Kerry as a dead heat. I find this an interesting index since 1) it's from a disinterested party (British, I think) and 2) there's money involved, so political bias should be minimized. I will try to update this periodically as the election draws near.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

[E. Blackadder]

You can avoid the vig here (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm), and it's lots of people putting their money on the line.

[Pseudolus]

You probably already know about these, but they're worth taking a look at:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_WTA.html

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_VS.html

(Click on "Daily Prices Graph" on each link for a nice graphical representation of the race.)

[3rookie]

Not a dead heat, just even money. Betting is balanced on both sides right now. I would consider 20:21, but not even 10:11 as a dead heat, but you gotta get your 20% juice on these props.

[Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer.]

is this thread legal?

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Not a dead heat, just even money. Betting is balanced on both sides right now. I would consider 20:21, but not even 10:11 as a dead heat, but you gotta get your 20% juice on these props.
Clearly I've ventured into unfamiliar territory. If the betting is balanced on both sides, wouldn't that indicate an even race? I was mentally dividing 5:6 by 5:6 to get even odds without worrying about buying shoes for the bookie's kids.

[2pac Shakur]

The current line (http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975) has Bush vs. Kerry as a dead heat. I find this an interesting index since 1) it's from a disinterested party (British, I think) and 2) there's money involved, so political bias should be minimized. I will try to update this periodically as the election draws near.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

Let's make this interesting.
Make bets on the Presidency, with the looser being banished from the forum for a pre-determined period of time after the election.
See who's willing to put their money where their fingers are.
I'm pretty certain W will squeak by with a Diebold assist.
Not sure if I'm confident enough to risk banishment over it.
Of course, it would be a joyous banishment. No, I wasn't talking about joyous for all of you. Joyous for me.
Because it would mean that Bush had lost.
But I don't see that happening.

[The Drunken Actuary]

Not a dead heat, just even money. Betting is balanced on both sides right now. I would consider 20:21, but not even 10:11 as a dead heat, but you gotta get your 20% juice on these props.
Clearly I've ventured into unfamiliar territory. If the betting is balanced on both sides, wouldn't that indicate an even race?Not necessarily, I think. All it means is that the people betting are evenly divided on who they are betting on. Being that this is a British deal, I'm not sure if that makes this more or less 'credible.' Maybe they are all equally disinterested and all they hear is it's an even race so 50% are going one way and 50% the other. If Americans were betting I guess I would place less value on it since all kinds of factors could play into it like, are gamblers more or less likely to be liberal or conservative and are they likely to vote on their guy vs the other guy etc etc etc....

If these numbers start to change it will be because widespread polling favors one candidate over another.

I should mention that I didn't click on the link so I really don't know what I'm talking about.

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

The current line (http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975) has Bush vs. Kerry as a dead heat. I find this an interesting index since 1) it's from a disinterested party (British, I think) and 2) there's money involved, so political bias should be minimized. I will try to update this periodically as the election draws near.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

Let's make this interesting.
Make bets on the Presidency, with the looser being banished from the forum for a pre-determined period of time after the election.
See who's willing to put their money where their fingers are.
I'm pretty certain W will squeak by with a Diebold assist.
Not sure if I'm confident enough to risk banishment over it.
Of course, it would be a joyous banishment. No, I wasn't talking about joyous for all of you. Joyous for me.
Because it would mean that Bush had lost.
But I don't see that happening.

I am game. How about this:

Is Bush wins, and the election is within 2% (either way) on the popular vote, I'll not post for the remainder of 2004.

if Kerry wins, or Bush wins by >2%, you don't post for the remainder of 2004.

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

Not a dead heat, just even money. Betting is balanced on both sides right now. I would consider 20:21, but not even 10:11 as a dead heat, but you gotta get your 20% juice on these props.
Clearly I've ventured into unfamiliar territory. If the betting is balanced on both sides, wouldn't that indicate an even race? I was mentally dividing 5:6 by 5:6 to get even odds without worrying about buying shoes for the bookie's kids.

It indicates that the race is even, from the perspective of the odds-maker, yes.

It would also seem to imply the "house" would make a 16.7% on every bet...which seems unconscionable to me, but then again, I think there would have to be some leeway in the odds for the house in the case that the election started heading in one direction (it starts becoming obvious that Kerry is going to win, for example, and any "net" bets made at 5:6 on Kerry are, on balance, losers for the house.

[2pac Shakur]

The current line (http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975) has Bush vs. Kerry as a dead heat. I find this an interesting index since 1) it's from a disinterested party (British, I think) and 2) there's money involved, so political bias should be minimized. I will try to update this periodically as the election draws near.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

Let's make this interesting.
Make bets on the Presidency, with the looser being banished from the forum for a pre-determined period of time after the election.
See who's willing to put their money where their fingers are.
I'm pretty certain W will squeak by with a Diebold assist.
Not sure if I'm confident enough to risk banishment over it.
Of course, it would be a joyous banishment. No, I wasn't talking about joyous for all of you. Joyous for me.
Because it would mean that Bush had lost.
But I don't see that happening.

I am game. How about this:

Is Bush wins, and the election is within 2% (either way) on the popular vote, I'll not post for the remainder of 2004.

if Kerry wins, or Bush wins by >2%, you don't post for the remainder of 2004.

Bush has to win AND within 2%?
Is that poplular or electoral?
And either way, I should get some odds on that.
At least 2-1.

Not accepting the offer... yet.

[The Drunken Actuary]

Not a dead heat, just even money. Betting is balanced on both sides right now. I would consider 20:21, but not even 10:11 as a dead heat, but you gotta get your 20% juice on these props.
Clearly I've ventured into unfamiliar territory. If the betting is balanced on both sides, wouldn't that indicate an even race? I was mentally dividing 5:6 by 5:6 to get even odds without worrying about buying shoes for the bookie's kids.

It indicates that the race is even, from the perspective of the odds-maker, yes.

It would also seem to imply the "house" would make a 16.7% on every bet...which seems unconscionable to me, but then again, I think there would have to be some leeway in the odds for the house in the case that the election started heading in one direction (it starts becoming obvious that Kerry is going to win, for example, and any "net" bets made at 5:6 on Kerry are, on balance, losers for the house.

Jimmy lays $6 down to win $11 on Bush.
Sammy lays $6 down to win $11 on Kerry.

Total bet = $12
Total paid = $11

House take = 1/12 = 8.33%.

The house doesn't care who wins or what the odds are. They will manipulate the odds to get a split that guarantees themselves a 5-10 percent take.

A friend of mine told me these things. I would never engage in such sinister activity as gaming.Thanks, that was the point I tried to make above.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Unchanged.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

[Mel-o-rama]

People betting on an election. Sounds like it could be a serious conflict of interest issue. Me no like.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Unchanged.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

Not a dead heat, just even money. Betting is balanced on both sides right now. I would consider 20:21, but not even 10:11 as a dead heat, but you gotta get your 20% juice on these props.
Clearly I've ventured into unfamiliar territory. If the betting is balanced on both sides, wouldn't that indicate an even race? I was mentally dividing 5:6 by 5:6 to get even odds without worrying about buying shoes for the bookie's kids.

It indicates that the race is even, from the perspective of the odds-maker, yes.

It would also seem to imply the "house" would make a 16.7% on every bet...which seems unconscionable to me, but then again, I think there would have to be some leeway in the odds for the house in the case that the election started heading in one direction (it starts becoming obvious that Kerry is going to win, for example, and any "net" bets made at 5:6 on Kerry are, on balance, losers for the house.

Jimmy lays $6 down to win $11 on Bush.
Sammy lays $6 down to win $11 on Kerry.

Total bet = $12
Total paid = $11

House take = 1/12 = 8.33%.

The house doesn't care who wins or what the odds are. They will manipulate the odds to get a split that guarantees themselves a 5-10 percent take.

A friend of mine told me these things. I would never engage in such sinister activity as gaming.Thanks, that was the point I tried to make above.

Woops...I 2pac'ed my math. Right--the house only makes 1/12 on ONE of those bets--not both. Duh.


but, can the house change odds AFTER the fact? If they can't, then it would seem that they need to accurately assign a starting point, or they could get hosed.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

From my limited understanding of parimutuel betting, the odds change continually right up to the event, based on the volume of bets on either "horse." The bookies just play middleman, paying all the money from the losers to the winners, taking a nice chunk off the top.

[Cloister]

In parimutual betting, everyone gets the same odds - and the odds are set at the end of all betting (e.g. for horse racing, odds are set based on the bets placed up until the start of the race). Thus, the odds you get may well not be what they were at the time you placed your bet. The house just takes a cut and pays out the rest - there's no risk to the house.

In other betting you may get the odds at the time of your bet. Here the house (or bookie) wants to set the odds to get equal betting on both sides. If they don't, then they could be at risk.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

In horse racing, you get the odds that exist at the time of the race. A $2 bet to win/place/show pays the same no matter when you made the wager. Which sucks if you made the bet at 9:2 and then watch the odds go down as more people bet on your horse.

[2pac Shakur]

Woops...I 2pac'ed my math. Right--the house only makes 1/12 on ONE of those bets--not both. Duh.

Again?
Maybe the phrase should be:
You Shek'd up the math.
Or how about:
That was a real Sh*k up.
Or, how about: Just shut the Shek up!
Or just keep saying you 2pac'ed it. Whatever, it's all good.

[r. mutt]

Woops...I 2pac'ed my math. Right--the house only makes 1/12 on ONE of those bets--not both. Duh.

Again?
Maybe the phrase should be:
You Shek'd up the math.
Or how about:
That was a real Sh*k up.
Or, how about: Just shut the Shek up!
Or just keep saying you 2pac'ed it. Whatever, it's all good.

Sh*k you.

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

Woops...I 2pac'ed my math. Right--the house only makes 1/12 on ONE of those bets--not both. Duh.

Again?
Maybe the phrase should be:
You Shek'd up the math.
Or how about:
That was a real Sh*k up.
Or, how about: Just shut the Shek up!
Or just keep saying you 2pac'ed it. Whatever, it's all good.

:D

Mission accomplished.

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

In horse racing, you get the odds that exist at the time of the race. A $2 bet to win/place/show pays the same no matter when you made the wager. Which sucks if you made the bet at 9:2 and then watch the odds go down as more people bet on your horse.

OK, so there really IS no way for the house to lose money, unless the ____'d up their math.

[MountainHawk]

In horse racing, you get the odds that exist at the time of the race. A $2 bet to win/place/show pays the same no matter when you made the wager. Which sucks if you made the bet at 9:2 and then watch the odds go down as more people bet on your horse.

OK, so there really IS no way for the house to lose money, unless the ____'d up their math.

Well, they have to take in enough bets to cover the fixed and variable costs, but no, there is no way for them to payout in winnings more than they take in on wagers.

[Fiveagain]

Don't forget there is a minimum 2.10 payout for a 2.00 winning bet. If everyone in the race bets 2.00 to show on a horse that shows, the house could lose.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Four of six betting houses remain unchanged. However, and rather oddly, two have downgraded Bush to 4:5 and 4:6 against new Kerry lines of 11:10 and 13:15, respectively. Might be a good time to lock in.

Bush 5:6
Kerry 5:6

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Latest line. Definite disarray here, and probably some real moneymaking opportunities given the latest Bush poll numbers.

Edit: Wait, the new numbers are trending Bush, which makes sense.


Republicans 4/7 4/7 4/7 4/6 8/15 4/9 0.6/1 4/9 0.75/1 0.58/1
Democrats 5/4 5/4 5/4 11/10 11/8 13/8 1.58/1 13/8 1.14/1 1.55/1

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Latest line. Odds keep getting longer on Kerry.

Republicans 4/9 4/11 4/9 4/9 4/9 4/9 4/11 0.52/1 3/8 0.75/1 0.5/1
Democrats 13/8 2 13/8 13/8 13/8 13/8 15/8 1.78/1 15/8 1.14/1 1.78/1

[fallout]

Who Will Carry Florida In The 2004 President Election? (All Bets Action) 11/02 at 09:00 am

Democrats +150

Republicans -165



My online bookie took the president thing off the board. Too much action one way I guess.

I think these odds pretty closely relate to who will win. Can someone win without Florida this year?

[fallout]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +200

Republicans -240

[fallout]

Fairplex, race 9

Runner (jockey) Win Place Show Exotic Wagers

8) King George W. (Leyva J C) 102.00 35.00 8.00
6) Swordfish (Gomez G K) 0.00 7.60 3.40
2) Proud Hope (Atkinson P) 0.00 0.00 2.60


George W was a longshot but he pulled it off.

[Dooner in the West]

Bush could lose FL and still have a fair chance, if Kerry loses FL he would need 80 out of the remaining 108 electoral college votes still thought to be up for grabs (plus I am already giving him NJ with 15)

Currently I think the electoral college looks like:

Bush: 213
Kerry: 190
Toss-up: 135
Bush Needs to win: 57 of 135
Kerry needs to win: 80 of 135

Toss-up states are:
FL 27
OH 21
PA 20
MI 17
WI 10
MN 10
CO 9
IA 7
NV 5
NM 5
NH 4

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Latest line. No need to call for a priest yet, but Kerry's definitely on life support.

Republicans 2/5 4/11 2/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 0.45/1 3/8 0.49/1 0.49/1
Democrats 7/4 2 7/4 7/4 7/4 7/4 7/4 7/4 2.01/1 15/8 1.8/1 1.88/1

[Tim><]

Update?

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Wow, someone's paying attention. Heeryago.

Republicans 2/5 1/2 4/11 2/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 0.44/1 3/8 0.45/1 0.49/1
Democrats 7/4 6/4 2 7/4 7/4 7/4 7/4 7/4 2.05/1 15/8 1.81/1 1.91/1

[fallout]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +220

Republicans -270



I think I might toss a few bucks Kerry's way. 2.2 to 1. Sweet.

[fallout]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +150

Republicans -170



That debate was huge (oddswise).

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Republicans 4/9 1/2 4/9 4/7 4/9 1/2 0.6/1 1/2 8/15 0.6/1 0.59/1
Democrats 13/8 6/4 13/8 5/4 13/8 6/4 6/4 1.57/1 6/4 6/4 1.47/1 1.53/1

[Tim><]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.

[3rookie]

:bump:

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

Here is a site that I particular like.

It looks like the list of contested states is ever shrinking. This is going to be a nail biter, unless either candidate really goes in the drink in the next 3 weeks.

This is like the playoff scenario analyses during the last 3 weeks of the NFL.

But, in a nutshell,

If Bush loses Florida, the election's over, but it is now leaning his way.
If Kerry loses PA the election's over, but it is now leaning his way.

If they both hold these respective states, Kerry needs to win Ohio, AND most of the other swing states. Bush could feasibly lose Ohio and still win the election, although it would take some doing.

All this effort, all this money...and it comes down to these states which, apart from OH, aren't otherwise all that significant.

[Griffin 8]

On November 6, 2000, Arkansas didn't seem that significant, either.

[Griffin 8]

If they both hold these respective states, Kerry needs to win Ohio, AND most of the other swing states. Bush could feasibly lose Ohio and still win the election, although it would take some doing.How do you figure that? If each candidate wins the states leaning his way, almost any of the states in the undecided column is enough to win it for Bush.

[Moe Szyslak]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?

[fallout]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +142

Republicans -157



You can still get odds on Kerry.

[Guerilla poster]

What do these numbers mean?

[Tim><]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?Not for current odds. However, I would easily do it for 3:2 odds. You seem to be equally confident that your candidate is going to win and have those odds available. So, do you plan on placing a bet?

[fallout]

What do these numbers mean?

Bet $100 on Kerry you collect $242.00 (win $142) (if he wins)

To win $100 on Bush, you need to bet $157.00 (collect $257) (if he wins)

[Guerilla poster]

Thank you. I learned something from fallout.

[fallout]

Thank you. I learned something from fallout.

You must have paid attention this time.

Good for you.

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

If they both hold these respective states, Kerry needs to win Ohio, AND most of the other swing states. Bush could feasibly lose Ohio and still win the election, although it would take some doing.How do you figure that? If each candidate wins the states leaning his way, almost any of the states in the undecided column is enough to win it for Bush.

YOu're correct--I was presuming that if things were going so bad for Bush on election day that he lost Ohio, then winning Minnesota might be more out of reach--

I stand corrected. If Bush gets all leaning his way, then he need 5 electoral votes to win(since an electoral tie is in effect a win).

Bush needs to win one of

IA, MN, NM, OR, OH PLUS all the states leaning his way.


three things are looming as remote, but still plausible, possibilities.

1. An electoral college tie
2. An election where the winner loses the popular vote
3. An election swung by Maine's split electoral vote.

[Guerilla poster]

Interesting but I have never seen Florida and Wisconsin in a Bush column on my polls I have seen. Generally toss up. These numbers lean Bush Optimistic.


Now that I have had a look - it is a right leaning site.

[Moe Szyslak]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?Not for current odds. However, I would easily do it for 3:2 odds. You seem to be equally confident that your candidate is going to win and have those odds available. So, do you plan on placing a bet?I am too risk averse to bet an entire paycheck on either side. I would put $100 up on Kerry if I felt like betting.

[Tim><]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?Not for current odds. However, I would easily do it for 3:2 odds. You seem to be equally confident that your candidate is going to win and have those odds available. So, do you plan on placing a bet?I am too risk averse to bet an entire paycheck on either side. I would put $100 up on Kerry if I felt like betting.I would say that my wife is too risk averse to bet that much. However, I would bet $100 on even odds in a heartbeat.

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?Not for current odds. However, I would easily do it for 3:2 odds. You seem to be equally confident that your candidate is going to win and have those odds available. So, do you plan on placing a bet?I am too risk averse to bet an entire paycheck on either side. I would put $100 up on Kerry if I felt like betting.

you could go to the Iowa electronic markets--they have futures that would allow you to create a less risky investment based on the election outcome. Go to the voter share markets...

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

[Tim><]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?Not for current odds. However, I would easily do it for 3:2 odds. You seem to be equally confident that your candidate is going to win and have those odds available. So, do you plan on placing a bet?I am too risk averse to bet an entire paycheck on either side. I would put $100 up on Kerry if I felt like betting.

you could go to the Iowa electronic markets--they have futures that would allow you to create a less risky investment based on the election outcome. Go to the voter share markets...

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

Why not just bet less money?

[The Diabolical Biz Markie]

Moe, I bet you are salivating over those odds. I imagine that you will be betting at least one paycheck.Would you put a paycheck on Bush?Not for current odds. However, I would easily do it for 3:2 odds. You seem to be equally confident that your candidate is going to win and have those odds available. So, do you plan on placing a bet?I am too risk averse to bet an entire paycheck on either side. I would put $100 up on Kerry if I felt like betting.

you could go to the Iowa electronic markets--they have futures that would allow you to create a less risky investment based on the election outcome. Go to the voter share markets...

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

Why not just bet less money?

The futures markets give you the ability to recover something even in a losing bet. But I suppose, if you were a spineless lilly-livered chicken you could just bet less money. ;)

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Trending slightly Kerry's way, although still favoring our Maximum Leader.

Republicans 4/7 8/15 4/7 8/15 4/7 4/7 4/7 0.65/1 4/7 4/6 0.62/1 0.58/1 0.63/1
Democrats 5/4 11/8 5/4 11/8 5/4 5/4 5/4 5/4 1.43/1 5/4 11/10 1.41/1 1.35/1 1.43/1

[Griffin 5]

Trending slightly Kerry's way, although still favoring our Maximum Leader.All hail our Maximum Leader. Viva Bush!

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Maximum Leaders shouldn't have to suffer these quadrennial exercises in humility. I hear Patriot III is going to fix that.

[Griffin 5]

Movies, Acts, Missiles - with the exception of Paddyboy, everything labeled "Patriot" is good.

[fallout]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +157

Republicans -167

8 days later Bush pulls further ahead.

[Harry]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +157

Republicans -167

8 days later Bush pulls further ahead.

It's interesting that this is happening. I hear from Zogby and ABC that the race is such a dead heat that nobody wants to predict anything. I wonder what information these people are relying on that convinces them that Bush is a surer bet today than he was a month or two ago.

Maybe they're smoking 2Pac's stash?

[Tim><]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +157

Republicans -167

8 days later Bush pulls further ahead.

It's interesting that this is happening. I hear from Zogby and ABC that the race is such a dead heat that nobody wants to predict anything. I wonder what information these people are relying on that convinces them that Bush is a surer bet today than he was a month or two ago.

Maybe they're smoking 2Pac's stash?

Our limited sample of the effects of smoking 2Pac's stash indicates that this is an unlikely explanation.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Odds slightly lengthening on the long-faced one.

Republicans 4/7 8/15 1/2 8/15 8/15 4/7 4/7 8/15 8/15 4/7 4/7 0.67/1 1/2 4/7 4/7 0.67/1 0.6/1 0.66/1
Democrats 5/4 11/8 6/4 11/8 11/8 5/4 5/4 11/8 11/8 5/4 5/4 1.39/1 6/4 23/17 5/4 1.35/1 1.22/1 1.4/1

[fallout]

Who Will Win The 2004 Presidential Elections? (All Bets Action) 11/01 at 09:00 am

Democrats +157

Republicans -167

8 days later Bush pulls further ahead.

It's interesting that this is happening. I hear from Zogby and ABC that the race is such a dead heat that nobody wants to predict anything. I wonder what information these people are relying on that convinces them that Bush is a surer bet today than he was a month or two ago.

Well it could be the limited pool of bettors that are leaning Bush, thus moving this one sportbook's line. However, given the propensity for these outfits to pool odds and pass on risk, I think it is a more general trend.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Kerry still has a hill to climb in the eyes of the bookmakers.

Republicans 8/15 4/7 1/2 4/7 8/13 8/15 8/15 8/15 8/15 8/15 0.7/1 4/7 1/2 6/11 8/15 0.67/1 0.55/1 0.65/1
Democrats 11/8 5/4 6/4 5/4 6/5 11/8 11/8 11/8 11/8 11/8 1.33/1 5/4 5/4 7/5 11/8 1.33/1 1.38/1 1.4/1

[Tim><]

Will these odds continue after the election? Will there be some sucker who still expects the results to be overturned?

[Aaron Brachowitz]

I just read an article saying that the Dems already have their legal team ready if the votes don't go their way again.

[Harry]

I just read an article saying that the Dems already have their legal team ready if the votes don't go their way again.

Really? I'm shocked. I'm surprised there isn't a similar team set up for the Republicans. Surely if there was, the article would have mentioned so.

[fallout]

Kerry still has a hill to climb in the eyes of the bookmakers.

Republicans 8/15 4/7 1/2 4/7 8/13 8/15 8/15 8/15 8/15 8/15 0.7/1 4/7 1/2 6/11 8/15 0.67/1 0.55/1 0.65/1
Democrats 11/8 5/4 6/4 5/4 6/5 11/8 11/8 11/8 11/8 11/8 1.33/1 5/4 5/4 7/5 11/8 1.33/1 1.38/1 1.4/1

The last two are weird no?

The dems went up and the reps went up too?

Less vig?

What happened?

[Aaron Brachowitz]

We'll call this final, unless they start posting odds on the post-election aftermath. Bush still showing a slim lead across the board. Nineteen British bookies can't be wrong!!!

Republicans 4/7 8/13 4/7 4/7 4/7 8/13 4/7 4/7 4/7 4/7 4/7 0.76/1 4/7 1/2 3/5 4/7 0.7/1 0.68/1 0.71/1
Democrats 5/4 5/4 5/4 5/4 5/4 6/5 5/4 5/4 5/4 5/4 5/4 1.22/1 5/4 23/17 11/10 5/4 1.25/1 1.26/1 1.3/1

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Geez, the odds have totally flipped and some of them are showing Bush as a 9/4 dog right now -- apparently betting is still open.

[MrOverUnder]

I put 10 units on Kerry at +120 two days ago. Now the odds are at Kerry -300. Absolutely unreal! I guess they are thinking that Kerry has it in the bag! I'm tempted to put a bet on Bush to hedge my bet a little, but I really don't think he is going to win at this point.

Any thoughts?

[4sigma]

I would hedge if you can. Florida and Ohio are anybody's guess still. If you have invested in Kerry at +120, I would take your proit.

[John F. Kennedy]

On tradesports about an hour ago Bush was 31.0 - 31.9; now it's around 43.8 - 44.0. I think a lot of people got suckered by exit polls and similar "news."

it keeps going up. But alas, all my money is tied up in cash.

[2pac Shakur]

On tradesports about an hour ago Bush was 31.0 - 31.9; now it's around 43.8 - 44.0. I think a lot of people got suckered by exit polls and similar "news."

it keeps going up. But alas, all my money is tied up in cash.

Suckered by the exit polls.
Guess they forgot about the Diebold factor.
Not me.

[John F. Kennedy]

At least I didn't panic. Tradesports Bush futures are 80%+