How will it all end?

[42]

We’ve had plenty of debate over how to proceed with this war. Let’s fast-forward 100 years. In the year 2101, when our great-great-great-grandchildren are studying about this war in their history class, how will it be described? A few possibilities:

1. It was like the Gulf War, except we didn’t leave anybody like Sadam Hussein standing. We went in, kicked ass, and won the war in a few months. After that, everybody was so afraid of the powerful USA that nobody dared challenge us for the remainder of the century. {chant on} USA! USA! USA! {chant off}

2. After 25 years of fighting, the coalition of countries fighting terrorism destroyed 90% of the Islamic population. Everybody agreed that it was necessary, and there was no dissention among the countries in the coalition. 75 years of peace followed.

3. After nearly 10 years of fighting, we captured or killed Osama bin Laden and most of his closest followers and supporters. Moderate Islamic groups suffered relatively few casualties. We imposed our own governments in the former Islamic countries, which were well received, since the moderates didn’t like the extremists any better than we did. After a cooling-off period, these countries democratically elected their own government, and we all lived happily ever after.

4. Through covert operations, we infiltrated Al Qaeda. Over 15 years, we systematically destroyed it from the inside without ever dropping a single bomb on any of the 20+ countries in which it operates. Life returned to normal.

5. After nearly 20 years of intense fighting with heavy casualties, we captured or killed Osama bin Laden, anybody remotely close to him, anybody supporting him, anybody who might take his place, and any moderates who switched over to the dark side after we started retaliating. We imposed our own governments in the former Islamic countries. These countries have remained unstable, with sporadic violence and terrorist attacks against US targets. We have spent the last century looking over our shoulders, worried that another major war with extremists could start at any time. Security is so tight everywhere in the US that you can’t go to the bathroom without first having the fiber-optics-enabled toilet identify you by the computer chip that the government has implanted in your butt.

6. After 5 years of fighting with the terrorists, we realized that the war was hopeless. We announced that we would stop supporting Israel. The terrorists said “Thanks, that’s all we really wanted”, held the mother of all Pogroms, and left us alone from that point on.

7. It will be described as the war that has been going on for the past 100 years because neither side can win but neither side is willing to give up. Terrorist attacks in the USA have been as common in the 21st century as they had been in Israel in the last half of the 20th century.

8. After heavy casualties in battle and continued terrorist attacks on US soil, including biological and chemical attacks that made the events of 09/11/01 look like a picnic in the park, the country became divided regarding whether or not to continue with the war. Peace protests got out of hand and the US was plunged into civil war. Fortunately, Israel picked up the slack and single-handedly fought off the terrorists while we struggled to get our act together. Israel emerged as the new military superpower, and supplied the US with billions in aid and defense against terrorist attacks.

9. We rushed in and started bombing indiscriminately. For every Islamic extremist we killed, two moderates got pissed off enough to take his place. Terrorism paralyzed the USA by striking all forms of transportation and communication, disabling our satellites and computer systems, and caused our economy to implode (a la “Dark Angel”). We eventually pulled out of the war with our tails between our legs, handed Israel over to the terrorists, and have been paying “protection money” on a regular basis to avoid further terrorist attacks.

10. The terrorists got their hands on nuclear weapons, and we bombed the hell out of each other, leaving the USA and most of the Islamic countries in ruins. The European Union emerged as the new economic superpower, but China eventually rose up as a military power and conquered the world.

11. There won’t be any kids studying history in 2101. The terrorists got their hands on nuclear weapons, and we destroyed the planet. The only ones left are cockroaches and a few lawyers and insurance agents.

12. After four decades of battles in which the US was slowly being defeated, just when it looked like all hope was lost, a mysterious gray-haired little old lady named Kimi suddenly appeared out of nowhere and blew away all of the terrorists using her own arsenal of weapons without any help from the government. Kimi became the first female president of the US.

13. After years of battle, the warring factions reached a peace agreement in 2038 in order to join forces and unite against the Martians that were attacking the Earth. We kicked Martian ass, celebrated together, and then couldn’t remember why we had been fighting with each other. A lasting peace ensued.

So what probability would you assign to each scenario? Feel free to add your own scenarios to the list.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: 42 on 2001-10-02 11:42 ]</font>

[Aaron Brachowitz]

100 years from now...people will still be reading your post!

Personally, I think we will take some short-term retaliatory strikes which might kill bin Laden but will not diminish the threat in the least. Having done nothing to prevent another attack (because it's all about getting back to normal), we will suffer another hideous tragedy. At that point, not being able to isolate the extremists from the less extreme, we (and hopefully our allies) will have no choice but to start isolating the Arab states from the civilized world -- no travel, no trade. It will be painful for us economically, but catastrophic for the Arabs, who will have to revert to a subsistence economy. We will maintain powerful military forces in the area and conduct constant reconnaissance, striking mercilessly when any threats arise.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

"11. There won’t be any kids studying history in 2101. The terrorists got their hands on nuclear weapons, and we destroyed the planet. The only ones left are cockroaches and a few lawyers and insurance agents."
How could you tell one from the others?

[Traci]

By the end of 2001, the US and her allies have destroyed the terrorist training camps, and have Bin Laden and his henchmen in custody. All financial channels have been cut, Bin Laden's money is funneled to the refugees and to rebuilding efforts. Casualties are few on both sides, but the Taliban is one of them - A moderate religious government initally aided by the UN, still rules Afganistan - they allow the US and other countries access and information for continued prevention efforts.

Small terrorist rings still exist, but they do not have the technology nor the funds to carry out large-scale, or bio-chemical attacks - they occassionally attack on a small scale before being stamped out.

The US is still the greatest country on Earth - but we no longer take our security for granted. We tolerate increased surveillance in public places, but still have our privacy rights intact.

[Single Mom]

I hope Traci is right! All the other scenarios, while possible, are horribly depressing.

[Guerilla poster]

Another scenario:

The US defeats the Taliban. Andy Lang is picked to lead a coalition supported government in Afghanistan. Andy supports defined benefit plans for all Afghans and former terrorists not killed in the conflict.

Everyone lives happily at least until the Mormons come to Afghanistan looking for converts. Andy declares a second jihad against Utah.

[Intents]

Representative democracy rules the world. The move to suburbia will have increased with working from near home a very normal occurrence. Multiple layers of communication technology will have been developed due to troubles caused by reliance on just a few satellites. The steam engine will have made a comeback and drugs will have been legalized as the socially accepted deal with the devil to stop illicit money flows. No money exists other than electronically with barter systems being targeted as the main enforcement aim of the IRS. Freedom of speech is given and another level of honesty is reached as most people accept that privacy no longer exists. All of this because the world formalized a choice for peace when the Mayan calendar finally ended in 2012. The seed of the hope for peace was first first noticed in 2006 by a re-interpretation of the Princeton random number experiment results dated September 11, 2001.

[42]

On 2001-10-02 14:22, Aaron Brachowitz wrote:
100 years from now...people will still be reading your post!

Good one, AB! Since Andy has made himself scarce, I thought somebody had to pick up the slack. :grin:

[Anonymous]

(Post deleted.

Even if intended as humor, it went too far with ethnic references.

Moderator1)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Moderator1 on 2001-10-02 16:03 ]</font>

[Anonymous]

Moderator, you're an anti-semite.

[Hierophant]

14. Traci authors a new book: "Why can't we all agree to disagree?" Book becomes national mega-best-seller, Traci is catapulted to instant super-celebrity status, and becomes a major force in liberal American politics. Following successive and humiliating defeats of Hilary Clinton in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections, a rapidly maturing yet no less intellectually agile Traci is drafted into Presidential politics.

And well she should, for by now the news media has become dominated by right wing extremists and the Christian Coalition.

Taking leave of her burgeoning media empire, Traci is initially drafted to serve as the Vice Presidential running mate to Warren Beatty. (In the Presidential debate against Republican candidate Dr. Laura, the aging Beatty Reagan-esquely parries the question from Rush Limbaugh (who is actually a moderate among the conservative pack-dogs of the debate's news panel) as to his morality and fitness to serve: "I will not let my opponent's lack of sexual experience be an issue in this election.")

Traci has her own debate against Republican VP candidate E. Blackadder. This debate is conducted entirely over the Internet, which is now dominated by Traci; strangely enough, many of EB's debate responses were garbled or incomprehensible, almost as if they had been edited by some malevelont force.

Following the success of the debates, Beatty and Traci enjoy huge leads in the polls, and victory seems assured. Internal polling conducted on behalf of Traci by her political consultant, Chelsea Rodham-Clinton-Matalin-Carville, demonstrates that Traci contributes the deciding difference in polling, and that those favoring Traci expect her to have a significant role in a Beatty Presidency.

Prior to the election, some strains in the Beatty-Traci junta begin to show, as petty arguments over division of power begin to emerge. Many of these arguments were carried out publicly on this very forum, and miscommunication may have exacerbated the rift in the otherwise wildly succesful campaign.

For example, historians over the years have debated the significance of miscommunication in this final posting, and what it tells us about the internal struggles in the Beatty-Traci camp. The miscommunication arose from an error in the forum's auto-censor routines (which have since been corrected):

On 2012-10-04 13:47, Warren Beatty wrote:

Traci, you cut, I choose.
However, we will never know: for shortly thereafter, Warren Beatty mysteriously dies of an overdose of Viagra.

Traci is unanimously names as the replacement candidate for President, and selects Keanu Reeves to be her Vice Presidential running mate. Keanu Reeves brings in the "Bill and Ted" vote with his campaign slogan "Be excellent to one another" which perfectly complements Traci's message of "Let's agree to disagree."

Polling and popularity soar, and Traci and Keanu are elected in a monumental landslide victory, becoming the first Democratic presidential ticket to win the majority vote in over 900 counties in the nation (at least, since people started looking at such stats.)

Traci appoints a crusty but well-baked George Carlin as ambassador to the UN, and Bill Maher serves as Secretary of State. Together, they advance the Maher-Carlin plan to eliminate international terrorism (and you thought I was drifting away from the thread!) The American public doesn't understand the plan, but they find Maher and Carlin irresistably entertaining as they explain it.

Meanwhile, Keanu Reeves limits himself to domestic policy. Like most VP's, he adopts a "pet issue" - in this case, legalizing medicinal marijuana. In a related development, the American Psychiatric Association, (which years ago courageously removed homosexuality from the list of recognized pyschological diagnoses), announces a major research breakthrough - namely, that conservative thinking is, in fact, a sign of a treatable mental illness.

Public opinion reflects a general sense of euphoria, and the stock market experiences a sustained and dramatic rise. Leading the bull market are bio-agri-tech innovators THC, Inc., Cannabis Consolidated, and a newly reinvigorated Coca-Cola Company, which is rumored to have returned to their original secret formula. The food sector enjoys tremendous growth as well.

Cookie tycoon Famous Amos becomes the world's richest man, despite allegations of bribery and seeking illegal political influence from VP Reeves. "It's all smoke" said the Vice President at a recent press conference.

But I digress. The Maher-Carlin plan for eliminating international terrorism is surprisingly simple. The U.S. and all other countries form a single global nation, which effectively eliminates international boarders, and thus, international terrorism.

Given 11 years of hounding by the conservative media to eliminate international terrorism, and the powerful global concensus for achieving this goal, the Maher-Carlin plan is unanimously adopted by all surviving independent nations. (Those not agreeing to the plan were viewed as presumptive terrorist nations, and subjected to pre-emptive strikes and "nation-building.")

Now, 100 years after the 9/11 attacks, we live in a world absolutely free of international terrorist attacks. Although some rogue journalists occasionally point to rumors of "domestic" terrorism and civil war; even if these rumors are true, it would be a small price to pay.

[Oracle]

You forgot to mention that Traci names Andy Lang to head up her cabinet level office of Social Security and Corporate Pensions. He changes SS to a fully funded plan, with interest on the fund sufficient to pay all benefits for the next 100 years without any further payroll taxes. All cash balance plans are unwound and restored as defined benefit plans with guaranteed benefits which cannot be changed, even prospectively, by employers.

As a result of these initiatives, all the Canadian provinces apply for US statehood, quickly followed by all the remains of Rule Brittania. The state of India is merged with Pakistan and all other countries ending in -istan.

Soon the United States becomes synonymous with United Nations, and the White House welcomes the Security Council to all meetings in the West wing.

At which point those Martians arrive, and we learn how much fun the Martian pharmacopia can provide.

[The Mister]

We have always been at war with Eurasia...

[alex]

Traci appoints a task force headed by robert brown to overhaul the citizenship exams. It goes from a nominal test to a lengthy series of exams, subject to overhaul every three years or so, and is offered in english or french. The number of US citizens goes from 300 million to 45 in the span of a year, and brown declares it's because afghanistan looks so much more attractive to young people than america, and we have to offer tests on arabic and koran, to compete with the taliban for talented young folk. The SOA is now pressing for recognition in the radical islam market, and bans everyone without asa status from visiting a mosque or making the haj.

[Guerilla poster]

You forgot:

Dr. T Non-Fan is arrested and charged with treason for continually suggesting that Traci's government should provide seperate citizenship exams for each state.

[The Mister]

No, you were the VP candidate... Dr. Laura was the Pres. candidate. First time in history that two people of Jewish heritage were together on the ticket.

Though for the life of me I can't imagine why you would agree to run on a ticket with her.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Who? What? I was minding my own business in the sports section, where it's very confusing what with all the different sports. How am I supposed to find the hockey threads?

Each sport should get its own topic area.

[Traci]

I FINALLY GET TO BE QUEEN OF THE WORLD!!!!

I promise not to forget all you little people.

You guys SERIOUSLY crack me up! :grin:

[Hierophant]

On 2001-10-02 20:27, Traci wrote:
I FINALLY GET TO BE QUEEN OF THE WORLD!!!!

I promise not to forget all you little people.

You guys SERIOUSLY crack me up! :grin:

A thinly veiled threat!


"WE'RE NOT WORTHY!"

[G. Ringo]

AB has offered the only plausible scenario. I think that 1-6 and 12-14 have probability 0.

[Rockhound]

Within 6 months Obbie Bin Laden is killed. For the next 18 months the US continually rounds up or knocks out some terrorist cells with the rate of about 1 per month. For the 2 years after that, the rate falls to about 1 every 6 months. Then the public completely loses interest, and the US pulls off the occasional covert mission, and has soldiers stationed in many terrorist related hotsposts from then on. A "big" terrorist hit happens every 10 years or so, to re-heat the 3.5 year cycle of activity.

[Double High C]

On 2001-10-05 11:09, Rockhound wrote:
Within 6 months Obbie Bin Laden is killed. For the next 18 months the US continually rounds up or knocks out some terrorist cells with the rate of about 1 per month. For the 2 years after that, the rate falls to about 1 every 6 months. Then the public completely loses interest, and the US pulls off the occasional covert mission, and has soldiers stationed in many terrorist related hotsposts from then on. A "big" terrorist hit happens every 10 years or so, to re-heat the 3.5 year cycle of activity.


Very plausible. As a Moderate Liberal Optimist, I have some hope that over time, democracy fever (and capitalism) will spread throughout the world and will cure much of the problem. Coming down to earth, I realize that I may be talking many decades, if not centuries. (Hopefully we will not have blown up the world by then.)

And yes. Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

On 2001-10-12 19:53, Battery Park City wrote:
I have some hope that over time, democracy fever (and capitalism) will spread throughout the world and will cure much of the problem.

Isn't it true that the spread of Western ideas such as capitalism and democracy is what provoked such a violent reaction from Arab extremists in the first place? And I'm not sure how democracy is going to take root in such undemocratic cultures.

For the most part, they've taken the "sore loser" approach -- they see the prosperity of other countries and blame those countries for their failure rather than their own backward culture.

[Double High C]

On 2001-10-15 09:51, Aaron Brachowitz wrote:

On 2001-10-12 19:53, Battery Park City wrote:
I have some hope that over time, democracy fever (and capitalism) will spread throughout the world and will cure much of the problem.

Isn't it true that the spread of Western ideas such as capitalism and democracy is what provoked such a violent reaction from Arab extremists in the first place? And I'm not sure how democracy is going to take root in such undemocratic cultures.

For the most part, they've taken the "sore loser" approach -- they see the prosperity of other countries and blame those countries for their failure rather than their own backward culture.


Western values threaten the dictators in power who depend on ignorant masses who are easily manipulated. It might take a very long time, but I believe that ultimately, values such as democracy will be the antedote. (The alternative is unthinkable.)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Battery Park City on 2001-10-15 12:19 ]</font>

[Rockhound]

...I'm not sure how democracy is going to take root in such undemocratic cultures.

That's why this truly is a cultural war. Winning it does not simply mean killing Bin-baby; but also replacing a culture where democracy, freedoms, and respect for life are anathema.

In the 1800's we did it to the American Indians, too brutally, but effectively.

In the 1940's we did it to the Germans and the Japanese (heck they even play baseball in Japan, now), less brutally and arguably even more successfully.

In the 2000's we can do it to the Arab/Moslem extremist states.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Rockhound on 2001-10-15 15:36 ]</font>

[Mr. Grim]

Yesterday, Russia and Japan

Today, Arabs

Tommorow, China