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Avi
10-29-2004, 02:05 PM
57 points :o

Run a linear regression on the passing score percentage (passing score/total points).

X Y
2000 51.75/99.5
2001 44.5/80
2002 47.5/80
2003 51/80

Gives Y = .03896985*X-77.42125
R*²=.9979
Y(2004) = .67432 which is ~57.3 out of 85 points

Uh-oh

:o

KindGrind
10-29-2004, 02:11 PM
I dont think it works that way :)

I'd rather say that 2003 was peak, and that we're falling back to 59% passmark as in 2002. SO the passmark will be 50/85 :)

Avi
10-29-2004, 02:13 PM
Me neither, but how can you ignore an R² that high!??!? ;)

BassFreq
10-29-2004, 05:02 PM
Me neither, but how can you ignore an R² that high!??!? ;)Ask an underwriter - they know how to ignore all sorts of mathematically sound observations.

the yellow dart
10-29-2004, 05:30 PM
Please do not give the CAS any ideas.

Thanks for scaring the hell out of me so close to Halloween, though. Now I don't have to see "Saw" :P

idomoneus
10-30-2004, 12:30 PM
A high r squared, but very few data points. You'd be better off calculating a confidence interval (although I suspect it would be big enough to encompass all the scenarios we can imagine now without doing the calculation).

islas_del_maiz
11-01-2004, 12:06 PM
With the CI idea, i think maybe u can feel good if u have >=60. I say this also becoz the bunch of people who took it here felt it wasn't difficult. On the other hand people had the same feeling about 5 and we had good 5 results.

islas_del_maiz
11-01-2004, 05:18 PM
BTW what I meant is if u have 60 pts based on ur own estimate, considering the margin of error in the estmate.

Avi
11-01-2004, 05:30 PM
Right now, low end estimate for me is 42.75 and high end is 56.25

:(

ramanujan
11-01-2004, 05:50 PM
Based on last three years simple average, the pass mark should be 60% which is 51. Since most people found the exam long, the pass mark might be a bit lower. My guess for the pass mark would be 49-52.

Avi
11-01-2004, 07:19 PM
Based on last three years simple average, the pass mark should be 60% which is 51. Since most people found the exam long, the pass mark might be a bit lower. My guess for the pass mark would be 49-52.

[insert image of Avi praying mightily for low passmarks and high partial credit]

:duh:

the yellow dart
11-01-2004, 07:40 PM
I think the exam was maybe a notch harder this time, and it was definately longer. I hope that implies a lower pass mark percentagewise than last year.

Outside of that, I can't see the pass mark going any higher since a percentage of the population was taking their first essay exam.

Of course, this is all wishful thinking on my part

Tim><
11-02-2004, 08:16 AM
Based on last three years simple average, the pass mark should be 60% which is 51. Since most people found the exam long, the pass mark might be a bit lower. My guess for the pass mark would be 49-52.

[insert image of Avi praying mightily for low passmarks and high partial credit]

:duh::shake:

Avi
11-02-2004, 09:25 AM
Me neither, but how can you ignore an R² that high!??!? ;)Ask an underwriter - they know how to ignore all sorts of mathematically sound observations.

Perhaps you mean marketing guys?

BassFreq
11-02-2004, 10:52 AM
Perhaps you mean marketing guys?Them too.

KidCA
11-02-2004, 11:47 AM
I scored really well on the 2002 and 2003 (as sample) exams. I wasn't expecting to be so rushed for this exam. I got through but skipped a few (okay more than a few) to finish. My range is now 48-58...much more borderline than I wanted... I would hope the pass mark is still at 51... I would wish it dropped to 49.

kirbyk2
11-04-2004, 02:28 PM
Based on last three years simple average, the pass mark should be 60% which is 51. Since most people found the exam long, the pass mark might be a bit lower. My guess for the pass mark would be 49-52.

Taking this one step further, assume a linear relationship between exam length and pass mark percentage. Separating into groups of 80 and 99.5 point exams, the simple average pass mark percentage is 60.0% for the 80 point exams and 52.0% for the 99.5 point exam.

Now, using linear interpolation between the 80 and 99.5 point exam groups, the pass mark for an 85 point exam would be:
49 = 85 * [0.60-(85-80)/(99.5-80)*(0.60-0.52)]

With no rounding, this calculation works out eerily close to 49.0, which leads me to believe ... we still have no clue what the actual pass mark will be!!!
:D

honeycut
12-22-2004, 10:38 AM
Now that the results are out, do any of you passers have additional thoughts or comments on the pass mark? I've also noticed that the CAS revised the acceptable multiple choice answers for questions 12 and 19. While this change helped me by 1.25 points, it didn't seem to be enough for a passing grade. :-?

Any thoughts?

12-22-2004, 03:30 PM
Now that the results are out, do any of you passers have additional thoughts or comments on the pass mark? I've also noticed that the CAS revised the acceptable multiple choice answers for questions 12 and 19. While this change helped me by 1.25 points, it didn't seem to be enough for a passing grade. :-?

Any thoughts?

I would appreciate if you could plz post the revision for Q12? I've been trying to download the file but there appears to be some problem in my ISP. Thanks!

12-22-2004, 03:37 PM