Anthrax scare

[Anonymous]

Need some info. Someone has contracted anthrax in Florida. From what I know, there hasn't been a case of Anthrax anywhere for over 25 years. They don't even study it in Medical School anymore. Is this right?

[Patience]

The guy is a nature nut and they seem to believe it is natural. They are retracing everything he did over the last 60 days.

As long as he is the only one there is no thought there is anything but a natural occurance

[Anonymous]

Acc. to the news on the radio this morning, there hasn't been a case in Florida in ~25 years, but sporadic cases do pop up here and there, including one in Texas last year.

[My Name]

Well, a new case this morning - his coworker.

[Oh Yeah]

Only one solution --

Bomb Florida.

[Anonymous]

From what I heard, there are two types of anthrax infection. One is through the skin, and one is inhaled. Through the skin is not usually fatal. Inhaled is much rarer, and there hasn't been a case of getting it through the air in the US in almost 20 years. Two in one office would imply terrorism.

The incubation period is up to 45 days, so on the off chance the terrorists did release some on the 11th of September, we wouldn't necessarily see the cases for a while.

They are saying that the guy in Florida may have been exposed in August

[Hierophant]

Think Bayesian inference, my fellow actuaries!

Even one case probably implies terrorism.

Inhaled anthrax has had 1 case in 25 years in the U.S., or 300 months times an average population base of about 200 million or more = 1 case in 60 billion exposed person months.

Now, having a case within 1 month of the 9/11 attack? From a Bayesian standpoint, even if you think there is only a 1 in 1 million chance that the terrorists could have and would have successfully used anthrax, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of interpreting the single case as the result of an act of terrorism rather than as a random result.

Bin Laden has the money and the malevelent intent to bring the odds up to 1 in 1 million, I would think. (Using anthrax is a very difficult proposition, from the reports I have heard.)

[Anonymous]

I agree that one case within a month of the attack indicates terrorism is the most likely cause, however, I was going by the "once is a coincidence, twice is a consipiracy" theory.

[Anonymous]

It's probably terrorism. If one more person
has it then it's absolutely terrorism. The next few weeks should be interesting.

Only 18 inhalation cases in the United States were documented in the 20th century, the most recent in 1976 in California. State records show the last anthrax case in Florida was in 1974.

Anthrax can be contracted from farm animals or soil, though the bacterium is not normally found among wildlife or livestock in the state. Stevens was described as an avid outdoorsman and gardener.

The anthrax bacterium normally has an incubation period of up to seven days, but could take up to 60 days to develop

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I read he was in North Carolina when he became ill.

I'm thinking there would be about 1000 more cases than just two.

I'm also wondering how he got home from NC. Plane? That would be pretty bad. Enclosed cabin, unfresh air.

[Old Actuary]

The anthrax was definitely caused by a deliberate, probably criminal, ct. However, it is premature to say it was due to a "terrorist" attack.

The government has kept it quiet that scores of "anthrax" envelopes have been sent to recipients in California and elsewhere. The message states that "by opening this envelope, you have contracted anthrax." All such messages have been a hoax and have not contained anthrax.

It is not impossible that a non-terrorist individual could spread anthrax.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Warning! Possible insensitive remarks ahead.

Judging from the company that the victim worked, who knows if any of it is real at all?

[Double High C]

Now anthrax has been found in the NYC office of Gov. Pataki (as many have undoubtedly heard by now).

[Actuary321]

OK, help me out here. Articles I have seen say that one NBC employee is infected with Anthrax and the baby of an ABC producer.

So how did the baby get it? One article said that the baby had visited the parents offices in late September. Do NBC (Brokaw) and ABC share offices? I have not yet been able to make the connection and non of the media seem to have seen the disconnect.

[Patience]

Cause seems to be unknown. Speculation on Pataki office is it got carried in accidentally by police investigating other cases.

Case: The infant son of an ABC News producer is diagnosed with the skin form of anthrax. The child had visited the ABC newsroom in the past few weeks.

Impact: 1 person infected; dozens of ABC employees being tested. So far none have tested positive for exposure.

Investigation: The source of the spores is unknown.