World Cup Discussion

[RedSoxFan]

I thought I'd start a separate spread to discuss all the games. I'll repost my France-Senegal summary here, and then I'll write my Denmark-Uruguay recap soon.

Senegal 1 France 0:

That really was a big upset. The last time the defending champs faced an African squad in the first game, in 1990, Cameroon stunned Argentina 1-0.

I have to give Senegal a lot of credit. They gave a great effort and had a lot of energy. They were very disciplined defensively. Although they normally play a 4-4-2, they switched to a 5-4-1.. normally this kind of change is an exercise in futility, both because they're not used to it, and they find it impossible to score goals. But they were in France's face the entire match. The way the goal happened was kind of lucky. Diouf broke free on the left wing and brought the ball into the box. He had a decent cross in front of the goal. Petit kicked the ball hard to clear but it bounced off Barthez's sliding legs perfectly in front of Bouba Diop who was lying in front of the goal after a slide. Diop just had to poke it in.

France just couldn't get anything in. They hit the crossbar twice, and Henry showed flashes of brilliance. They had other good opportunities, but you could tell many of the French players were having substandard games. LeBeouf, Trezeguet, Vieria, Wiltord, and Djorkaeff played well below their best. Zidane is out with an injured thigh, and the latest estimates were that he'd miss the first 1 or 2 matches, but I wouldn't be surprised if he suits up in their next game even if he is still injured because the French certainly missed the best player in the world today.

Senegal should have had more chances. Diouf was caught offside at least seven times. I know it's good to do that because of the occasional lucky break and the disruption it causes to the other team's flow, but most of those times Diouf would have got a good run on the ball even if he held up his run until the ball was played.

Something else I wanted to mention is that in the first half, it seemed on Senegal's breakaways that the midfield support was very slow in coming.. I remember once Diouf had the ball on the right wing and had to pass but his support wasn't even to the top of the box and barely got off a shot. But in the second half, the support was there, but when the attack fizzled, the players didn't hustle back to get on defense. France almost burned them a couple times because of that.

[RedSoxFan]

Denmark 2 Uruguay 1:

It was a rather exciting game. The first half was wide open with lots of attacking chances for both sides. It was surprising that it took 44 minutes for the first goal to occur.

Recoba has an amazing left foot, always a threat on corner kicks and free kicks. Apparently Uruguay was missing their best midfielder to injury, but he should be back for their next match. The Uruguayans play very aggressive, committing a lot of fouls. I could see Denmark start to get frustrated with their opponent's play.

Denmark broke Uruguay down the last several minutes of the first half, culminating in a goal the result of beautiful teamwork between Gronkjaer and Tomasson. Uruguay had a stunning equalizer in the 47th minute: Rodriguez, their left back, scored on a volley shortly after a corner kick from a few yards out of the box. It was a perfect strike right into the upper left hand corner of the box.

The winning goal was scored in the 83rd minute, also by Tomasson. It was a header from a great cross by Jorgensson. Denmark displayed the better possesion and teamwork in the 2nd half, and deserved the win. It was crucial victory: if this game had been a tie, it would've been difficult for either team to advance.

[RedSoxFan]

Germany 8 Saudi Arabia 0:

Saudia Arabia were short on stature and short on good fortune in this one. They were disorganized and not as skillful as the Germans, who hadn't played well in recent international competitions, but certainly looked good today.

Tough to draw too many conclusions on Germany's chances in the tournament from this lopsided contest, but they look sure to advance to the 2nd round as they need only one more win (and they'll also have the first tiebreaker: that's goal difference.)

The Germans outshot Saudi Arabia 26-3. Klose scored three times: Ballack, Jancker, Linke, Bierhoff, and Schneider all scored once. They nearly tied the record margin of victory of 9 goals.

[RedSoxFan]

Time for more updates.. by the way, please feel free to post if you have any comments, insights, or questions.

Argentina 1 Nigeria 0

Both teams had very close chances in the first half, one by Ortega and another by Okocha (for Nigeria), both of which required a diving deflection by the keeper to force the ball inches over the crossbar.

Nigeria's keeper played well overall but looked shaky on corners, and that led to Argentina's goal, a header on a corner by Batistuta.

Argentina just played better, as expected, but Nigeria limited their opportunities and nearly scored themselves a couple times. The rest of the games in this group of death will be very interesting. Nigeria definitely has the potential to advance.

[RedSoxFan]

Paraguay 2 South Africa 2

Paraguay was missing their team leader and keeper Chilavert de to suspension.

There was rough play by both sides, many yellow cards (and more could have been issued). Great goal on a header by Paraguay's Santacruz off of a free kick in the first half. A brilliant free kick by Arce, perfectly in the corner, scored the 2nd goal for a 2-0 lead by Paraguay.

South Africa had chances throughout the game, and broke through in the 63rd minute. After a few minutes worth of opportunities were repelled by Paraguay, a shot by Mocorena from the top of the box deflected off a defender and into the goal (a poor decision by the scorekeeper who changed the ruling to an own goal).

South Africa should have scored the equalizer in the 84th minute. They had a lot of pressure in the later stages of this game as Paraguay defended their lead with their lives.

A crucial call made by the referee in the 90th minute.. a penalty kick! I wouldn't have made the same call, but it wasn't up to me. The goalie barely clipped the attacker.. Fortune converted and tied the game

Very disappointing result for paraguay. Up 2-0 and the better side, they should have won here. It will be more difficult to advance with Slovenia also battling for the 2nd spot behind Spain.

[RedSoxFan]

Spain 3 Slovenia 1

Spain played better throughout and deserved the win. Slovenia was very solid, though. They didn't make many mistakes, and created decent opportunities on the offensive side.

Spain got a 2-0 lead on goals by Valeron and Raul. Slovenia scored in the 80th minute with a goal by Cimirotic. So far, very reminiscient of the other game in this group, Paraguay - South Africa. In that game, South Africa was awarded a controversial penalty kick that tied the game. In this game, Slovenia drew what looked more like a penalty kick than what happened in the first game, when its striker was pushed over in the box. No call was made: and a couple minutes later, Spain was awarded a penalty kick on a very questionable decision. Slovenia was attempting to clear the ball, and a miskick sent it into the air right at the edge of the box. The Slovenia defneder went to kick the ball away right when it hit the ground. A spainiard had come up to the ball and the Slovenian's kick clipped him. Though he was not making an attacking play at all, and the kick was inadvertant, he was still awarded the penalty kick, which Hierro converted.

Slovenia looked surprisingly good. With Paraguay tying South Africa as the other match in this group, Slovenia has a good chance to advance.

[RedSoxFan]

England 1 Sweden 1

A tale of two halves as England was the better side in the first half and Sweden was better in the second half.

England scored in the first half after a beautiful corner by Beckham was sent in to the net by the head of Sol Campbell, one of the team's central defensemen.

Sweden scored in the 57th minute after a defensive misplay by Mills ended up on the foot of Alexandersson just outside the box who put the ball in with a good strike. Sweden continued with good pressure and nearly scored again in the 61st minute as they forced a great diving save by Seaman. Sweden's other best chance came 2 minutes into stoppage time, as a mistake by England's defender Cole led to a decent shot by Sweden that was just a foot wide.

This match was the first for Beckham after he broke his foot in early April. Though not 100%, he played well in the first half, including the assist on the corner, but was invisible in the 2nd half until he was replaced in the 62nd minute.

This was a pivotal battle in the group of death. If one of these teams had won, they'd have improved their chances of advancing immensely. As it is, it is still up in the air whether one of these teams or Nigeria will advance with Argentina.

[RedSoxFan]

Ireland 1 Cameroon 1

A crucial match for both teams, if one assumes Germany will finish the group stage with 3 wins and Saudi Arabia with 3 losses

Mboma had a 1 v 1 opportunity vs the keeper early in the first half but failed to convert. Both teams had many more close chances.

Mboma scored late in the first half after a great effort and pass from fellow forward Eto'o. Ireland scored early in the 2nd half with a perfect strike a few yards out of the box by Holland. Ireland had a great chance in the 83rd minute, but the other Keane's shot hit the post, and again in the 90th minute, a free kick forced a difficult deflection by the keeper. Cameroon was lucky to prevent Ireland from scoring the winning goal late in the game.

A disappointing result for Cameroon, as I'm sure they were hoping for the win that would assure them of advancing, not only because they're slightly better than Ireland on paper, but also Ireland is missing its best player, Keane, for the duration of the cup. Ireland was very impressive, though, and I certainly didn't see in Cameroon a team that, as Sports Illustrated predicted, would make a surprise run to the semifinals.

With the draw, unless one of these teams manage a draw with Germany, these teams will battle on gaol difference. With that being the case, both teams will try to score as much as possible against defenseless Saudi Arabia.

[johnny]

seems like not having a job yet is not so bad after all. i get to watch some of the games and not worry about anything like work.

argentina-nigeria

argentina was very aggressive and certainly had more experience than the young nigerians. they had ball possession most of the time. batistuta is really good at headers.

spain-slovenia

i agree. that penalty call was very questionable. i think that really decided the game. had it not been for that, slovenia could have come back to equalize (cause a goal down is not as bad as two).

[jets fan]

Germany 8 Saudi Arabia 0

Is the World Cup playoff system set up to encourage a high margin of victory, as in college football? I was starting to get the feeling that Germany was running up the score and humiliating Saudi Arabia. But if it is somehow to Germany's advantage to do that, then I can't fault them.

[Han Solo]

I believe goal differential is the first tiebreaker for advancing out of the qualifying round if total points are tied, so thats why the Germans were trying to score more.

[RedSoxFan]

Mexico 1 Croatia 0:

Well, the streak is over. Due to a faulty VCR (maybe it was the operator's fault, but do we really need to cast blame?) this match is going to go unwatched by RedSoxFan. Not to worry too much, I wasn't planning on getting up at 1am for the China - Costa Rica match (two of the worst teams in the tournament).

Anyway, I saw the replay of the crucial moment: a penalty kick and the first man sent off in this world cup. Zivkovic took Blanca down with a sliding tackle in the penalty box in a good scoring chance. When I saw the replay it looked like Zivkovic barely tapped the ball, but later reports reviewing the match said no contact was made. Anyway, Blanco converted.

I'll let an AP news article take over from here:


Mexico's best chance of doubling its advantage came with five minutes to go. But Ramon Morales' shot was knocked away by Pletikosa.

The tiring Croatians stepped up the pressure in injury time with a series of attacks on the Mexican goal, but were unable to get past Mexico's packed-in defense.

The first half had been fairly even, though Mexico appeared to get the better of play as halftime approached. Perez had a strong game, especially early, and as the Mexicans found their form, the action switched to the Croatian half of the field.

"It was one of the worst performances ever displayed by the Croat national team,'' former coach Miroslav Blazevic said after watching from the stands.


So it seems Mexico probably deserved the win anyway. With Italy seemed destined to advance, and Ecuador to not, this was the crucial game for 2nd place. A big upset must occur if Croatia is to advance.

[RedSoxFan]

Brazil 2 Turkey 1:

Turkey scored in the 2nd minute of first half stoppage time, as Basturk sent a great pass to the side to Sas who volleyed it in.

Brazil's Rivaldo found Ronaldo across the box in the 50th minute for the equalizer. Ronaldo dove feet first to get the ball.

Brazil dominated play most of the game, getting 17 shots to Turkey's 5. Turkey would have allowed more goals if it weren't for the outstanding goal keeping by Rustu.

Controversial penalty kick call in the 86th minute. Brazil's Luizao got past Turkey's Alpay a few feet outside the box, and Alpay began to tug on his shirt. The tugging continued until Luizao was a couple feet inside the box, when he fell down. The ref issued a red card, which was probably warranted, but also allowed the penalty kick, even though the shirt-pulling began and was its worst outside the box. Rivaldo converted the PK.

A shocking finish to the game: with a couple minutes left in 2nd half stoppage time, Brazil was wasting time as it set up for a corner kick. The ball rested in the field 10 yards away as Rivaldo began to set up near the corner kick circle. Turkey's Unsal kicked the ball at Rivaldo in frustration. It hit Rivaldo square in the thigh, but Rivaldo hit the deck, holding his face and rolling on the ground. Unsal appropriately received his second yellow card and was sent off. No yellow for Rivaldo for acting.

Turkey should still advance: they are expected to post wins over Costa Rica and China, the other teams in the group.

[Hanse]

Brazil 2 Turkey 1:
Turkey should still advance: they are expected to post wins over Costa Rica and China, the other teams in the group.Their chances against Costa Rica are diminished by the loss of 2 defenders to red cards. Alpay will hurt more than Unsal. If they were missing the China game, I don't think it would be as big as it is against CRC. If they are to advance, they may need to really score big against the Chinese, and hope to get in on differential.

[RedSoxFan]

Italy 2 Ecuador 0:

Brian Hall became the first man born in the US to referee a World Cup match. Ecuador made its first appearance in WC history.

Vieri scored twice in this match dominated by the Italians. In the 7th minute, he redirected an excellent cross by the playmaker, Totti. In the 27th, he scored after a long pass on a shot which was partially blocked but was still on its way in when he gave it another kick inches from the goal line.

Ecuador played much better in the 2nd half, actually possessing the ball and making decent attacks. Their best chance was real late in the game as they found an opening in the box but put the shot inches wide of the post.

Ecuador's Aguinaga was supposed to be their key player and midfield distributer, but he was invisible in the first half, and was substituted for at halftime.

Italy looks sure to advance to the 2nd round. Ecuador looked decent in the 2nd half, but it will be difficult for them to get 2nd place with Mexico and Croatia also in the group.

[Mr. Grim]

Who won the England/Sweden game?

[RedSoxFan]

US update:

The US have been preparing for their match on Wednesday, at 5am EST. We've received some unfortunate news about a couple of our key players, however. Reyna re-strained his right quad. He is 50-50 for the match. Mathis may also miss the start. His left knee, which he had surgery on from an ACL tear a couple years ago, is sore, and Coach Arena dislikes starting players who aren't near 100%. The latest news reinforces that, as sources close to the team have reported not only will DeMarcus Beasley start (at left-midfielder) but Donovan will as well, at a forward position. Other interesting news is that apparently Friedel will start in goal. Many have argued the merits of the two goalkeepers, and it is a luxury to have to great players at this position, but only one can play.

It will be disappointing to not have Mathis in the lineup. I think the US has really benefits from his presence on the field. I think Donovan will be a capable replacement. I remember in one of the qualifiers he had two great goals to demonstrate his patience with the ball as he dribbled around the keeper. Beasley will be very fun to watch on the left side of the field. He is very quick and is also a talented defender. The young Fort Wayne, Indiana, product lacks experience, but has good on-the-ball skills.

It will still be a tough game against Portugal, the team expected to finish the group first. Even if the US loses this game, it can still advance with victories over South Korea and Poland.

[Ben Kenobi]

The US have been preparing for their match


More proof that soccer is un-American: It makes you talk funny :D

(See my Linguistic Question for Our Canadian Friends thead (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=4431))

(edit to fix URL)

[RedSoxFan]

Argh! I can't believe I did it! That's how they've been saying it throughout the world cup telecasts. I guess it just rubbed off on to me.

Nobody won the England-Sweden game, it was tied. You can see my summary further up the page.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Stayed up for Ire-Cam match. After Dennis Miller, I couldn't sleep, so I figured the game would help. Unfortunately, it was a pretty good game, and the soothing commentary of futbol was provided in excited Spanish. I think one of the guys called someone a "Quesa-cabesa."

[Traina]

I think that the matches have been generally pretty exciting so far. Not boring and defensive. However, out of the ones I’ve seen so far, I think the England / Sweden first half (b4 the goal) was the dullest. Also so far the games have been pretty clean, not that many yellow cards etc.

[Packet_Storm]

Dr T Non-Fan was it "calabaza" which means pumpkin; however, it means someone who is empty headed, ie stupid. That would be my guess cause the word is not vulgar which can be said on Univision.

Oh, you can also check out skysport cause they go all the coverage you need.

Why are the games on Univision 10 sec faster than the games on ESPN2, is there a tape delay? I don't get it.

[RedSoxFan]

South Korea 2 Poland 0:

The first match of group D, which also includes Portugal and the US. The South Korean team, playing in its home country, had full support of the very lowd crowd, nearly all of whom where dressed in Korean red.

Poland had the better of the play for the first 15 minutes of the 1st half and the first five of the 2nd half, and that's about it. In the
25th minute Lee served a cross into the box and Hwang had a brilliant half-volley strike right into the side of the net. The 53rd minute saw a perfect strike by Yoo from the top of the box: the keeper got his fingers on it but the force of the shot was too much, and it went right into the upper left corner.

Poland ruined their few chances in the first 25 minutes of the 2nd half with offsides. They only got a couple good chances late in the game. In fact, Korea had much better chances to score their third than Poland had to score their first.

Poland looked poor. Their star striker, Olisadebe, was invisible. Poland, who looked very strong in the qualification stage, was a team that some thought would qualify in place of the US. With this loss to the team that was expected to finish fourth in the group it means it's nearly impossible for them to advance.

South Korea was very disciplined and solid. Very fit also, none of their players looked tired in the end stages. I was impressed, and they will be a good challenge from the US. If the US is not ready, Korea will not be the first World Cup host to fail to advance to the second round.

[GenkiGirl]

okok...not really technical discussion....BUT I think that someone has got to get their act together regarding tickets... Did anyone see how many empty seats there were for the Sweden/England game. My friends and I were trying all morning to get tickets but the web site had crashed and they wouldn't sell them at the stadium. ARRG..

Oh well....I will try for the next game...

GG

[RedSoxFan]

I've read reports how they're losing $770,000 per match in lost ticket sales. Part of the reason is irresponsibility on the part of the company distributing tickets internationally. I think one problem is that they're not returning tickets not sold internationally to brokers in charge of selling domestically. Regardless, it's kind of embarrassing, and doesn't make for good television pictures to have empty seats in the background.

On a slightly related note, US television audiences are slightly smaller than they were for France '98 so far. I think the reason is solely that the games are much earlier in the morning, with games starting from 1:30 AM to 6:30 AM on most days. Only die-hard soccer fans will tune in that early.

[RedSoxFan]

Japan 2 Belgium 2

The perfect record of 0 losses in opening matches by host countries is kept alive with the draw in this match.

The first half was rather even between the two sides, with Belgium getting the slightly better play. Neither team scored, but Belgium had the best chance: A shot by Wilmots that forced a diving save by the Japanese keeper.

Wilmots finally does score in the 55th minute on a bicycle kick passed to him in the box from a header. The ball was not struck well, but took a tricky bounce in front of the surprised keeper.

Japan comes back in the 59th minute. A long pass to the top of the box caused confusion between the Belgian goalie and one of his defenders, and a streaking Suzuki poked it past the keeper and into the goal with his toe. In the 62nd minute Nakata nearly scores directly from a free kick. The keeper made a leaping deflection just over the crossbar.

Japan does score again in the 68th minute. Inamoto streaks past the defense after he steals the ball from a poor pass in the midfield. His shot came from the left side of the goal but struck perfectly into the top right corner of the net.

Japan's hope for the win was crushed in the 74th minute by Van Der Heyden's goal. Van Der Heyden, the right fullback, was up near the goal for the free kick taken moments before. The ball came to him through the air, and he volleyed it gently over the keeper into the net. Japan had a couple decent chances late in the game against their tired opponents but couldn't convert.

A very interesting and competitive game, as I expect all games in this group to be. None of the four teams are much better than any other, and any two teams can advance, though Belgium may be considered the one with the best chances of getting to the 2nd round. Though this group may be considered the Group of Life, as each team in the Group of Death is considered better than each of these teams, all the games should be very close and competitive.

[RedSoxFan]

United States 3 Portugal 2

In the first half, Portugal dominated possession, with the US content to counterattack. It worked to amazing fashion, as the US unleashed an onslaught of goals.

In the 4th minute, a Stewart corner leads to a header attempt by McBride, which is blocked by the keeper, though directly to O'Brien, who sends the ball into the net.

In the 30th minute, an attempted cross by Landon Donovan deflects off the head of a defender (Jorge Costa). The keeper dives for the ball but it glances off his fingertips into the edge of the net. Scored as an own goal, I would've given it to Donovan, as the defender didn't have the opportunity to react to the ball differently.

The 36th minute saw a Sanneh cross from the right side perfectly to McBride for a header goal.

The inevitable comeback begins for Portugal. The 39th minute.. Beto heads it off a corner, kicked away by O'Brien, but right back to Beto, who strikes the ball into the next with his foot.

The 2nd half had the same theme, except for all the goals. Portugal continued to dominate possession time. That led to Portugal's second goal, an own goal by Agoos. In his defense, he was forced to do anything to prevent the ball going to the Portugal player behind him, as he almost certainly would have score himself had Agoos not done it for him. Agoos, a few meters in front of the goal, attempted to clear it over or beside the goal, but it went right in.

Late in the 2nd half, the tired US bunkered down, trying to defend Portugal's chances en masse. The last few minutes of the game were sort of anticlimactic, as the US did a good job of holding the ball and wasting time.

The US achieves the 2nd biggest upset in the Cup. A most improbable beginning with the US going up 3-0 against one of the favorites to win the whole Cup. The US also had to play without starters Reyna and Mathis, not to mention their midfield defensive specialist Armas, who tore his ACL just before the tournament. Can the US look forward to the 2nd round? Definitely not. Their next match is against Korea, the other first game winner in the group. Since Portugal is likely to win its other two games, the US must beat or tie Korea and beat Poland to advance, otherwise they'll have to depend on tiebreaks (goal differential).

An amazing result. Certainly the biggest win in the history of US soccer. Will the world take the US seriously now? They should.

[Traina]

Shocking win! Well, I must say that the US is a completely different team from the last World Cup. It was a good game, however, 2 own goals in a game is a pretty rare occurrence. The US own goal was pretty clear, but the Portugal one should barely be considered an own goal.

Now on to Germany - Ireland.

[Han Solo]

USA 3 Portugal 2 - this is an amazing upset, to me almost as big as Senegal over France. I don't know or didn't hear of anyone giving the US a chance to win going against a Portugese team by consensus was tops in the group. This gives the US a great chance to advance, which I didn't think they could do.

USA! USA!

[RedSoxFan]

Germany 1 Ireland 1

Close play between the sides in the first half, then a Klose play for Germany. In the 19th minute, Ballack from 30 yards out kicks a looping ball into the box which find a streaking Klose, for his 4th goal of the cup.

Ireland came close three times to getting the equalizer. In the 23rd minute, after a close play on a corner kick, Holland strikes the ball from 20 yards but barely misses. 44th minute Robbie Keane set up perfectly for the bicycle kick 3 meters from the goal line but he mishits it wide. Duif nearly scores from close range in the 56th minute, but it deflects barely wide off of the keeper's hip.

Germany nearly got a 2nd goal. Ballack gets behind the defense in the 67th minute, then attempts to chip the keeper but the ball ends up centimeters wide. 78th minute, Klose gets a great header opportunity but the ball just high.

Two minutes into stoppage time, an amazing goal by Ireland! Robbie Keane takes a pas into the box and beautifully shoots it past the keeper and off the post and into the net.

An amazing ending to a very close and competitive game. Germany must at least draw Cameroon to advance. If it is a draw, Ireland and Cameroon will depend on a goal difference tiebreaker to see who goes to the 2nd round. A Germany win means Ireland wins, but a Cameroon win means Germany misses out. (This all assumes Cameroon and Ireland both beat Saudi Arabia).

[VP]

After the first match, CONCACAF is the only region with a winning record. How about that? I think the consensus ranking of the regions a week ago would have had CONCACAF no better than 4th, ahead of maybe Asia.

CONCACAF 3-0-0 (W-L-T) (North America) (WPct 1.000)
CONMEBOL 2-2-1 (South America) (.500)
UEFA 5-6-4 (Europe) (.467)
CAF 1-2-2 (Africa) (.400)
AFC 1-2-1 (Asia) (.375)

[Tom Servo]

I noticed that CONCACAF was undefeated in their first games also. However, I don't see any of the three teams advancing too far in the tournament. Of course, I didn't think the U.S. would win today either. One thing to keep in mind about these numbers is that a couple of the game were Europe v Europe which would bring the winning percentage towards 50% so I think the percentage is lower against non-UEFA countries.

[Toonces]

What a game this morning. TiVo is a Godsend. It tapes the game in my sleep, then I can watch the game in a little over 30 minutes using 3x speed, slowing the game down during scoring chances. An awesome, exciting win, but what's with the ESPN guy and "Thine Eyes have seen the glory?" He had an hour, and that's all he could come up with?

[VP]

I thought of the UEFA playing itself argument when I posted, and should have addressed it there. You're right it pulls them toward 50%, but being below .500, that's advantaegous!.

England tied Sweden
Spain beat Slovenia

Without those results, Europe is 4-5-2 (.455 vs. 467)

Re: NA teams advancing.

Costa Rica still has lots of work to do. I think Turkey and Brazil should each beat them. A tie against Turkey could be enough.

Mexico is in good shape. All they have to do is beat an Ecuador team that was quite unimpressive against Italy. Ecuador seems to have peaked a year early.

I guess I'm a pessimist that I'm worried about the US. Agoos goal could be a killer. I see a real possibility of Poland 0-3 and everyone else 2-1. That would be painful to get 6 points and lose on GD. I think they'll go through though.

[VP]

Check that. Let me be optimistic for a minute.

Portugal's going to eliminate Poland; Poland will have nothing to play for but pride in their final game. The US can win their group by beating Korea.

Their Round of 16 foe - Mexico. Very, very winnable.
Quarterfinal foe - B1 (Spain?) or E2 (Ger/Ire/Cam). No cakewalk, but not Ita/Fra/Bra/Arg caliber either.

[Toonces]

I don't blame Agoos for the own goal. He had to do something to stop the cross and just couldn't get around on it.

[Abducens]

Toonces, look out!! :o

[Tom Servo]

If I have done the math correctly (and it is quite possible that I didn't) then I come up with the U.S. having a 69% chance of definitely qualifying to the next round, 17% of tying for a place and having to go to a tiebreaker, and 14% of not advancing.

[Hanse]

Costa Rica still has lots of work to do. I think Turkey and Brazil should each beat them. A tie against Turkey could be enough.

As I said before, Costa Rica's chances against Turkey are much better today than they were last week, before Turkey lost 2 defenders to red cards, one of whom is key. Unless I missed something from FIFA, isn't the red card suspension for the next game? I don't view it as a walk over for Costa Rica, but it has the potential to make a big difference.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Tom Servo, please provide your assumptions, and we'll try to check your work.
Are you assuming equal strength of teams? And how do ties tie in?

[RedSoxFan]

I think it goes something like this (assuming Portugal beats Poland):

If US gets two draws, they advance. If they beat Korea, they advance. If they lose to Korea but beat Poland, there will be a three way tie if Portugal beats Korea and Poland (but US advances otherwise).

If they get only one draw, they will have four points and it will be difficult to advance: a tie for 2nd is the best we can do. If the draw is against Korea, we can tie them if Portugal beats them. If Poland draws Portugal, there will be a four way tie. If the draw is against Poland, Korea and Portugal advance if Portugal beats Korea and Poland. If Portugal draws Korea or Poland, we tie Portugal. Finally, if Poland beat Portugal before their draw against us, we tie them.

And remember, all ties broken by goal difference first, then by goals scored.

Now, how can we finish first and avoid a probable matchup against Italy in the first game of the second round? We can with both our games, for one. If we beat Korea and draw Poland we are also first. If we draw Korea and beat Poland, we tie Korea for first if Korea beats Portugal, otherwise we are first. If we win just one of our next two games, and the win is against Korea, Korea will tie us if they beat Poland, and Portugal will tie us if they beat both Poland and Korea. If the win is against Poland, Korea will take first with at least a draw vs Portugal, otherwise we tie them. If we draw our last two games, we can still get first if Portugal beats Korea and draws Poland. A tie of first will only happen if Korea draws Portugal. Otherwise, we are second if we advance.

[Toonces]

Well according to some concensus odds on the web for round 2:



US v. Korea
US Win = .27
Korea Win = .44
Draw = .29

Portugal v. Poland
Portugal win = .53
Draw = .27
Poland Win = .20

Portugal v. Korea
Portugal Win = .54
Draw = .27
Korea Win = .19

USA v. Poland (I have a hard time believing these are current)
Poland Win = .51
Draw = .27
US Win = .22

http://194.201.13.117/index.php?lang=0

[Tom Servo]

Tom Servo, please provide your assumptions, and we'll try to check your work.
Are you assuming equal strength of teams? And how do ties tie in?

What I tried to do was list every possible outcome, including tie games and see what the standings were. Since there are only four more games, and three possible outcomes of each game, there aren't a huge number of possiblities. Nine possiblities for the next games, and nine possibilites for the third games would equal 81 different outcomes. I treated each one as equally likely.

[RedSoxFan]

Well according to some concensus odds on the web for round 2:

US v. Korea
US Win = .27
Korea Win = .44
Draw = .29

USA v. Poland (I have a hard time believing these are current)
Poland Win = .51
Draw = .27
US Win = .22


It's sad that these were ever valid odds.. how little respect the US gets. I know that the US isn't as good as their ranking in the latest FIFA rankings (13th) but Poland and Korea are 38th and 40th respectively. So how are Korea and Poland both about twice as likely to win as the US in their matchups? I know we get little international respect, but this seems a little ridiculous. Anyway, I know that betting odds come as a result of actual money betted, and if people want to throw away their money, they can.

If I were to do a simulation, I think it'd be adequate to use drawing chances of .30, then .35 odds of either team winning. I think that's pretty accurate for the Korean match, and if I were doing Poland I might give the US as high of a .40 chance of winning, with Poland .30.

[Toonces]

Believe it or not, I think these still are the true odds. I checked a couple other sites that match, and they all claim to update every hour. Usually money odds are the best indicator of true odds (just like a stock price is the best estimate of the actual value of a company), since if enough think the odds are too low, they then bet heavy the other way, which shifts the odds, so I think its presumptuous to substitute our own (biased) feeling for the marketplace.

Given the odds we are given the USA's results:
9 points = 6%
7 points = 14%
6 points = 23.5%
5 points = 8%
4 points = 26%
3 points = 22.5%

This means 51.5% of the time, we are in with 5 or more points.

of the 22.5% of the time we lose twice, are only shot is if Korea beats Portugal and Portugal beats Poland. The odds of that are 2.25%. If we assume a 1/3 chance of winning the tiebreaker in that case, the chance of us advancing with 3 points is 0.75%.

11.9% of the time, we lose to Korea and tie Poland. Of that 11.9%, 3% of the time, Portugal wins out and Korea and Portugal move on. 1.2% of the time, Portugal beats Poland, but loses to Korea, advancing the US. 1.5% of the time, Portugal ties Poland but doesn't beat Korea, advancing the US. 2.4% of the time, Portugal loses to Poland, where US and Poland tie for 2nd. Given that the US scored 3 goals, and poland lost 2-0, let's assume we win 75% of the tiebreaker for another 1.8%. Finally, if Portugal wins and ties (either way), a 3.4% chance, we are tied for 2nd with Portugal. Since Portugal is more likely to win the goal differential (lets say 60% of the time), we advance 1.4%. Adding those up, we advance in this scenario 6.8% of the time.

Finally, 14.8% of the time, we tie Korea, but lose to Poland, giving US, Korea and Poland all 4 points. If Portugal fails to win a game, 3.2% of the time, both Poland and Korea go on. If Portugal wins one and loses one, 3.1% of the time, there is a 2-way tie for 2nd. For simplicity's sake, we win the tiebreaker half of the time for an additional 1.55%. Finally, if Portugal wins and ties (8.5% of the time), we will be in a 3-way tie for second. If we win 1/3 of the tiebreakers, that is another 2.83%. The total in this scenario is 7.2%

Summing up the 4 scenarios, we get the probability of the US advancing as 66%.

[VP]

Is it mathematically possible for Poland and Portugal to advance?

Korea ties US
Portugal ties Poland
Poland beats US
Portugal beats Korea

All with 4 points. P & P could have goal differential and get 1st and 2nd.

Is this the only way for the P's to both advance?

[VP]

If the odds of us advancing are 66% with those rotten odds, that sounds pretty good.

[Tom Servo]

Is it mathematically possible for Poland and Portugal to advance?

Korea ties US
Portugal ties Poland
Poland beats US
Portugal beats Korea

All with 4 points. P & P could have goal differential and get 1st and 2nd.

Is this the only way for the P's to both advance?
Yes, that is the only possible way.

[RedSoxFan]

I have to disagree with Toonce's interpretation of odds. Remember how tech stocks rose in price dramatically? In early 2000, YHOO stock was up to $220. Was that an accurate predictor of the company's potential? Or their future dividend returns? The stock currently sells for $16.

The outcomes of games are unpredictable, and odds are set by bookmakers so that they have an approximately equal amount of money bet on each possibility. I think it is pretty obvious many people around the world have very low respect for US soccer (for many reasons, including past failures and the fact soccer is so low in popularity here) hence, the bets on other teams. I know that any impartial soccer expert would think my odds of winning are closer to reality than the betting odds. But most of those who bet on soccer are neither impartial nor experts.

[RedSoxFan]

Something else I wanted to add that reinforces my last point is that in the stock market, there are very many sophisticated buyers and sellers. Mutual fund managers, financial planners, professional stock analysts, etc. are always on the lookout for good values and overpriced securities.

You can't say the same thing about gamblers.

[Toonces]

Something else I wanted to add that reinforces my last point is that in the stock market, there are very many sophisticated buyers and sellers. Mutual fund managers, financial planners, professional stock analysts, etc. are always on the lookout for good values and overpriced securities.

You can't say the same thing about gamblers.

Not really true. You would be amazed at the sophistication of the gambling information industry, which is, in many ways, analogous to mutual fund managers and stock analysts. While it is true that a lot of gamblers bet with their heart, there are lots of people whose job it is to find inequities in betting lines, and then sell that information to people who put lots of money down and pay heavily for the information. In vegas, "information plays" cause a betting line to move dramatically.

The caveat in this situation is that I'm sure World Cup betting is probably quite nationalistic and world cup internet betting is probably weak in the US, considering internet betting is illegal here as well as low interest. But I still have to believe that if the vast majority of impartial experts felt that the odds were so clearly off, it would create a lot of "information" action that would end up moving the line back to where it should be.

As for YAHOO, it's easy to say now that YHOO was overpriced back in early 2000, but if everybody thought so back then, then millions of people would have sold YHOO short back then. It is basic efficient market theory. There was a balance of money between those that thought it was going up and those that thought it was going down.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

The low popularity causes low subjective betting for USA, and keeps the betting odds high.

[RedSoxFan]

I think we're getting a little off topic here. Would you mind retallying your results with my probability estimates instead? I'm curious what the probability of advancing improves to.

[Toonces]

For what it's worth, the concensus odds going into the Portugal game were:

US Wins = .11
Draw = .23
Portugal Wins = .66

And DTNF, I know what you are saying, but I would still think that it would be offset by smart impartial bettors that notice the discrepency

[Toonces]

Well, Redsoxfan, I thought the discussion is very relevant to actuaries, given efficient market theory.

Also, I disagree with your predicted odds. I think we are somewhat underdogs to the Koreans, given a) how they played Poland, a very good team, b) the huge home field advantage, and c) How injury plagued the US still is. My odds would be close the the concensus, like .3-W, .3-T, .4-L instead of .35-W, .3-T, .35-L

As for the Poles, I really think they are much better than the one game we have seen. Everything I read before the world cup said we would need a lot of luck to beat them. I can't believe we would be favored, and I would give us the same odds as Korea, instead of .4-W, .3-T, .3-L.

However, given your numbers:

9 points .14
7 points .225
6 points .245
5 points .09
4 points .205
3 points .105

Prob of advancing = .813

also...

Probability based on proposition wagers from other websites:

Prob of USA winning Group D - 32%
Prob of Korea winning Group D - 43%
Prob of Portugal Winning Group D - 21%

Prob of USA advancing to Round 2 - 63.5%

[RedSoxFan]

Also, I disagree with your predicted odds. I think we are somewhat underdogs to the Koreans, given a) how they played Poland, a very good team, b) the huge home field advantage, and c) How injury plagued the US still is. My odds would be close the the concensus, like .3-W, .3-T, .4-L instead of .35-W, .3-T, .35-L



a) Poland is NOT a very good team. Latest FIFA rankings have them 38th. Yes, they played well in qualifying, so perhaps that ranking should be a little higher. But they played terrible vs. South Korea.
b) Ok, I agree.
c) The US is not injury plagued. Counting Armas, we are missing three players. We have good depth at forward, but I will admit missing Reyna hurts. He might be healthy by our next match. Regardless, we beat Portugal with those injured players.

Lastly, those are betting odds. A consensus of gamblers. Not soccer experts.

The presence of point b led me to my .35W, .3T, .35L probabilities. On a neutral field, I would predict .4W, .3T, .3L.


As for the Poles, I really think they are much better than the one game we have seen. Everything I read before the world cup said we would need a lot of luck to beat them.


I would hope they are better, because they played very poorly.

Did what you read include the following summary (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/soccer/world/2002/world_cup/teams/unitedstates/) by Pedro Pinto, cnnsi.com's soccer "expert"?


I believe that the United States will win one of their group games, but that will not be enough for them to make the last 16. This team has improved over the last decade and will continue to do so, but the nation will only become a true contender when the domestic media start paying attention to the sport and the team. The Women's World Cup team in 1999 got more attention than the men's squad has ever received, and that needs to change if this squad is going to go anywhere soon.

Kind of funny how Pedro immediately discredits himself. How does the attention given to the team by the domestic media affect whether they are a true contender or not? It makes no sense. It reveals his bias against the US, a bias many international soccer followers have, primarily because the US is attempting to be good at a sport that almost nobody in the country follows when it is the favorite sport of everyone else in the world. Nobody will take the US seriously until they make some major noise, such as reaching the semifinals. Until then, every US breakthrough, like today's, will be regarded as blind luck.

Anyway, you were probably misled by his comments and the comments of others.


I can't believe we would be favored, and I would give us the same odds as Korea, instead of .4-W, .3-T, .3-L.


Again, I'd like to refer to the latest
FIFA rankings. (http://www.fifa2.com/scripts/runisa.dll?S7:gp:132224:67173+rank/main+E+latest) You'll find the US is ranked 13th. Poland is 38th. (South Korea is 40th). Maybe that's why I favor us. Combine that with a big confidence boosting victory over Portugal, and Poland's poor showing against South Korea, and I see no reason not to give us the advantage.

I stand by my predictions.



However, given your numbers:

9 points .14
7 points .225
6 points .245
5 points .09
4 points .205
3 points .105

Prob of advancing = .813


Thanks, that was very interesting.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Are you attempting to say that the Futbol Gambling Community is, can be, or will be an efficient market?
It's nice to assume it, in order to make the work easier and the results somewhat foolproof mathematically. But, according to the latest odds, I think we all could make some moo on this market imperfection. Who wants some action? And who has access to these particular oddsmakers?

[RedSoxFan]

Costa Rica 2 China 0

As I didn't watch this match, I will post an thorough article (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/020604/2/qpm.html) by FIFAworldcup.com:

Despite being even at half-time, China kicked off their first-ever FIFA World Cup™ campaign with a loss to Costa Rica in Gwangju, Korea. The evenly played match was decided in a four-minute stretch in the second half by Ronald Gomez and Mauricio Wright goals.
China's hopes were significantly damaged in just the 26th minute when their star defender Sun Jihai had to go off with an injury. Costa Rica join Brazil on top of Group C, and they will look to secure their place in the next round when they take on Turkey on 9 June. China and coach Bora Milutinovic face the unenviable task of turning around their FIFA World Cup against Brazil on the 8th.

China pressured the Costa Rican end in the initial minutes of the first half, but the Central Americans settled down by the fifth minute and began to carry the attack with the occasional long-ball sprinkled into their short-passing game.

Costa Rica had the first clear chance when a quick counter-attack sprung Mauricio Solis in alone on China goalkeeper Jiang Jin, who denied the Costa Rican midfielder’s shot from a tough angle (20’). Paulo Wanchope had the next opportunity for Costa Rica, but his header from eight metres after a right-wing cross from Harold Wallace went well wide of the right post (28’).

Although China were denied any good looks at goal, they frustrated Costa Rica in midfield and broke loose on some dangerous counter-attacks, which the speedy Costa Rican central defenders did well to contain.

The two sides went into the interval without a goal, a justified score due to the lack of imagination on the pitch.

The opening quarter-hour of the second half continued with much the same pattern as the first, with neither side showing much creativity. But Costa Rica finally broke the game open when Ronald Gomez put a back-heel just inside the area to Wanchope, whose shot was blocked by a defender and sat up perfectly for Gomez, who fired high and left past Jiang Jin (0:1, 61’).

After taking more than an hour to score the first goal, Costa Rica needed just four minutes to get their second. Gomez received a corner kick near the by-line on the left side. He spun and served a short cross to Mauricio Wright at the near post, and his downward header found the back of the net (0:2, 65’).

The game opened up after the goals as China pushed more men forward, but could not get on the scoreboard. They failed to take advantage of a dangerous opportunity after a corner kick resulted in a loose ball in front of the Costa Rican goal, when Xu Yunlong could not get enough of his foot on the ball to steer it on goal (69’).

[RedSoxFan]

Russia 2 Tunisia 0

Tunisia nearly scores in the 27th minute, the ball is played into the box, and confusion among Russian defenders occurs, as one played it and deflected it off the other, and rolls centimeters wide of the post.

Russia's best chance of the 1st half ocurred in the first minute of first half stoppage time. Titov first timed a cross in the box with his foot, but he was barely wide.

In the 53rd minute Tunisia's Ben Achour took a nifty back heel pass and shot it just wide of the net. One minute later, Ben Achour sent a header pass across the goalmouth but it was cleared with the head of a Russian defender right in front of a Tunisian teammate.

A goal is finally scored in the 59th minute. Tunisia's keeper, with the ball after a corner kick, distributed the ball poorly, and the ball was easily intercepted by Russia. A pass through traffic later, Titov sends the ball to the back of the net.

Russia goes up 2-0 in the 64th minute from a penalty kick. Tunisia's defender, Jaida, awkwardly challenges Sychev, and ends up tripping him. Karpin scored the penalty.

Tunisia had a close chance in the 66th minute, and a little more pressure the rest of the game, but couldn't score.

Russia had the better of the play this game, and deserved the victory.

[RedSoxFan]

Cameroon 1 Saudi Arabia 0

Another match I chose not to watch, because I thought it would be a blow out, but the Saudis rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Germany with a close and competitive game vs Cameroon.

Cameroon had the slightly better of the play overall. They led in possession time 60-40, and led in shots on goal 7-4. Both teams tied in shots, however, at 14 a piece.

The goal was scored on a long ball to Eto'o, who streaked past the defender and beat the keeper on a shot that barely passed the keeper using the outside of his foot.

[RedSoxFan]

Denmark 1 Senegal 1

In the 15th minute, Diao brings down Tomasson in the box. A poor decision by the defender, as he had no chance for the ball and the PK decision was easy to make. Tomasson takes the PK, and although the Senegal keeper guesses correctly: bottom left, the strike is too well in the corner.

Senegal nearly scores in the 17th minute off of a corner. The shot is redirected by a defender standing next to the keeper.

The first half ends with the play rather even, but Senegal generating the slightly better chances. The trend continued in the 2nd half.

Senegal does score the equalizer in a great 3 on 3 counterattack. Senegal's #10, Fadiga, passes to Diao, a player who will be playing in Liverpool next season, who was making a diagonal run, who puts it beyond the keeper's touch. Remember, Diao was the player who caused the penalty kick, so he achieves some measure of redemption.

A second goal for Senegal nearly comes in the 59th minute a great pass in to Fadiga who was barely onside, had a 1v1 against the keeper, but hit the ball directly to him. Senegal starts to dominate the game, as Denmark looks very tired in the 96 degree heat.

A player sent off in the 80th minute! Diao with a nasty tackle, cleats pressed directly into a Danish knee. It was done right in front of the referee, who does not hesitate with his red card decision.

Neither team comes real close the rest of the way and the game ends in a draw. Another impressive result for Senegal.

[Shrek]

Cameroon will need a victory against Germany to advance - or a complete Irish flop v. Saudi Arabia.

France appears to be in deep doo-doo. Henry was sent off at 26 minutes, and a draw against Uruguay may not be enough to advance. Not that I'd mind seeing them packing their bags.

[RedSoxFan]

France 0 - Uruguay 0

France dominates early play, but Recoba of Uruguay has the first best chance. A strike from just inside the box in the 17th minute gets deflected by the defender into the hands of Barthez, the French keeper. If it hadn't been deflected, it might have gone in.

Stunning development in the 26th minute, as France's star striker, Thierry Henry, gets sent off!! Henry attempts a tackle, but his cleat studs are up, and go directly into a Uruguayan ankle. Other referees may have settled with a yellow card, but this one went ot the red. France can't substitute another attacker, at least at this stage of the game, because they've already used one substitution, in the 15th minute: Candela for LeBeouf who appeared to have an injured groin.

35th minute, France's Petit hits a free kick just outside the box which hits the outside of the post.

45th minute, Urugay's Silva fouls Vieira, after Vieira has already passed the ball, and Silva used his studs to Vieira's knee, but no call on the play! If Henry deserved a red card, Silva definitely did on this play.

Two minutes later, a confrontation between Abreu, who comes up behind and shoves Petit, who shoves him back. Both players earn yellows. The match is in danger of getting out of control. France appears to be very frustrated with what is going on.

France nearly scores in the 51st minute. Candela with a looping shot forcing Carini, the Uruguayan keeper, to jump and barely tips the ball over the bar with his fingertips. Off the corner, DeSailly nearly scores.

The momentum immediately passes to Uruguay. Recoba gets a strong shot from the left side, forcing a difficult save by Barthez. Shortly thereafter, Recoba breaks free, for a 1v1 against the keeper on the far left side. Recoba gets by on the left side past a diving Barthez, as two French defenders sprint to defend. As he saves the ball from going over the goal line, Recoba is forced into an off-balance shot that goes into the goal's side netting.

Two minutes later, the French have the momentum! Trezeguet forces a difficult save. Candela then take the rebound for a shot at sharp angle, kick saved. Seconds later on the other side of the field, Abreu passes the defense and forces Barthez to make a difficult save.

In the 65th minute, Trezeguet breaks free and has a 1v1 against the keeper if he can get past the last, sliding defender, but he gets tackled away. France maintains pressure for the next couple minutes, but cannot get a solid shot off. Two minutes later, Micoud takes a free kick just outside the box forcing a diving save, and then Wiltord has a chance in the box that is blocked.

The game is relatively quiet until the first minute of stoppage time. A ball is passed in just feet from the goal. A player from each side reaches the ball at the same time, and the ball goes over the net for a corner, which is taken poorly. But seconds later, Magallanes for Uruguay forces a brilliant kick save from Barthez. France was inches away from having their hopes of advancing ended. The last hope for either team was a French corner, but their heads can't get a good strike on it.

The first 0-0 match in the world cup, but one of the most exciting ones. Disappointing for France, but at least they didn't lose after losing Henry early on. They absolutely must beat Denmark to advance, but they will be missing Henry and Petit to one-game suspensions (Petit also had a yellow in their first game).

Within a few hours I'll post the first two of eight group summaries, after the first two games of each group, showing what has to happen for each team to advance, and my predictions.

[Toonces]

France appears to be in deep doo-doo. Henry was sent off at 26 minutes, and a draw against Uruguay may not be enough to advance. Not that I'd mind seeing them packing their bags.

If France wins by 2 goals over Denmark, they will pass Denmark and should advance. If they win by only 1 goal, Denmark will will be higher than them. Their only shot to advance would be if Uruguay beats Senegal by 1 goal, but France scores 2 more goals than Uruguay and 3 more than Senegal.
Are you attempting to say that the Futbol Gambling Community is, can be, or will be an efficient market?
It's nice to assume it, in order to make the work easier and the results somewhat foolproof mathematically. But, according to the latest odds, I think we all could make some moo on this market imperfection. Who wants some action? And who has access to these particular oddsmakers?

That's my point. A billion people pay attention to the world cup, and in most of those countries, gambling on the internet is legal. If the market was imperfect, surely we are not the only ones to spot it, and someone would be putting a lot of money on the side of the US. If you bet on the US to win, $100 would win you from $350 to $400 against Korea and from $350 to $575 against Poland.

That is, unless you think that it may be possible that by living in the US, we may be the biased ones, and not the entire rest of the world.

a) Poland is NOT a very good team. Latest FIFA rankings have them 38th. Yes, they played well in qualifying, so perhaps that ranking should be a little higher. But they played terrible vs. South Korea.

My understanding is that FIFA rankings are based on points earned during tournaments and other matches and are not appropriately weighted for Strength of Schedule, which would heavily favor European teams. A better ranking system would be a computer ranking, like Sagarin, that takes that into account, but it doesn't look like Sagarin does World Cup rankings.

Another reason to think that Poland is more talented than the US is Petr Nowak, the star of the Chicago Fire. Nowak would have been a tremendous asset to the US team and a starter if he was only American, but he was not good enough to make the Polish roster.

As for injuries, Stewart is probably out, as is Claudia Reyna and possibly Mathis. Stewart and Reyna are the most experienced people on our team and were the team captains.

[RedSoxFan]

My understanding is that FIFA rankings are based on points earned during tournaments and other matches and are not appropriately weighted for Strength of Schedule, which would heavily favor European teams.


Your understanding is incorrect. This website (http://www.fifa2.com/scripts/runisa.dll?s7.131738:GP::67173+rank/index+E) explains the methodology. Here is a portion of it:

The factors taken into consideration are:

1. Winning, drawing and losing
2. Number of goals
3. Home or away match
4. Importance of the match (multiplication factor)
5. Strenght of the opponent
6. Regional strength (multiplication factor)


There is compensation for both strength of opponent and regional strength.


Another reason to think that Poland is more talented than the US is Petr Nowak, the star of the Chicago Fire. Nowak would have been a tremendous asset to the US team and a starter if he was only American, but he was not good enough to make the Polish roster.

I have seen him play a time or two, but am not familiar enough with him to know whether he would start or be on our team. But remember, there are also forwards, defensemen, and keepers. It could very well be that one of our backups could start for them. Regardless, this is kind of inconsequential and doesn't have much weight to one arguing that Poland's team is better than the US's.

As for injuries, Stewart is probably out, as is Claudia Reyna and possibly Mathis. Stewart and Reyna are the most experienced people on our team and were the team captains.

According to this article (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/020606/6/slp.html) Reyna will play. As for experience, Cobi Jones has 155 caps. Agoos has 130. Meola has 99. Reyna has 88. Stewart has 80. And just because they are a couple of the more talented players on the team and are team captains doesn't mean the loss of them is devastating.

[Traina]

There seemed to have been a lot of fouls in the France/ Uruguay match. Also not really sure that Thierry Henry deserved that red card.
I doubt that France will advance to the next round. But, of course stranger things have happened.

[Shrek]

France appears to be in deep doo-doo. Henry was sent off at 26 minutes, and a draw against Uruguay may not be enough to advance. Not that I'd mind seeing them packing their bags.

If France wins by 2 goals over Denmark, they will pass Denmark and should advance. If they win by only 1 goal, Denmark will will be higher than them. Their only shot to advance would be if Uruguay beats Senegal by 1 goal, but France scores 2 more goals than Uruguay and 3 more than Senegal.

France will be playing without Henry and Petit, and we still don't know about ZZ. Denmark can advance with a one goal loss. I believe they will be happy to play for a draw, and counter when the opportunity presents itself. Yes, I think France is in deep doo-doo. I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Maybe the matches will be fixed, so France can advance. That's a popular theory, among the conspiracy crowd.

[VP]

Group A

It seems to me that one team will advance from the Sen-Uru match and one will advance from the Den-Fra match. I don't see how any pair of Tuesday opponents can both advance together.

Sen-Uru:
Sen win- Sen
tie - Sen
Uru win by one- Uru (tied in pts, tied in GD, tied in goals scored- next TB is h2h)**
Uru win by two or more - Uru (by GD)

Fra-Den:
Den win - Den
tie - Den
Fra win by one - Den
Fra win by two or more - Fra

**The one monkey wrench. If all 4 end with 4 points via one goal wins by Fra and Uru, it gets ugly. Everyone's GD would be 0 so total goals scored would determine the order. There are infinite possibilites but here are a few:
Fra 2-1 and Uru 1-0: Den #1 (4 goals), Uru #2 (1-0-1 h2h with Sen and Fra)
Fra 1-0 and Uru 1-0: Den #1 (3 goals), Uru #2 (h2h w/ Sen)
Fra 1-0 and Uru 2-1: Den #1 (1-0-1 h2h with Sen and Uru), Uru #2 (1-1 h2h)
Fra 2-1 and Uru 2-1: Den #1 (4 goals), Uru #2 (h2h Sen)
Fra 3-2 and Uru 1-0: Den #1 (5 goals), Fra #2 (3 goals)
Fra 1-0 and Uru 3-2: Uru #1 (4 goals, h2h Sen), Sen #2 (4 goals)

So, OK, my original premise is only broken if Fra and Uru each win by one goal and one game is significantly higher scoring than the other.

[RedSoxFan]

Group E after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF -GA
GER--2 -- 1 --1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 9 -- 1
CMR--2-- 1 --1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 1
IRL -- 2 --0 --2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 2 -- 2
KSA --2-- 0 --0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 9

Results:
Ireland 1 Cameroon 1
Germany 8 Saudi Arabia 0
Germany 1 Ireland 1
Cameroon 1 Saudi Arabia 0
Germany vs. Cameroon, Ireland vs. Saudi Arabia: 6/11, 7:30 am EST

Who will advance?
If Ireland loses or draws Saudi Arabia, Germany and Cameroon advance.
If Ireland and Germany win, they both advance.
If Ireland and Cameroon win, they both advance.
If Ireland wins, and Germany-Cameroon is a draw, the three teams tie for first. Germany will definitely advance, because their tiebreaker (goal difference) will be better than Cameroon. If Ireland wins by 2 goals or more, they also advance. If Ireland wins by only one goal, their goal difference with Cameroon is identical, and the next tiebreaker after that is goals scored.

My prediction:
Germany should advance. They looked a little shaky vs. Ireland, but Cameroon looks pretty shaky themselves.
Ireland should also advance. Even if Cameroon manages a draw, Ireland should beat Saudi Arabia by at least two goals.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Germany-Cameroon, primarily. The winner goes on, loser goes home. If it is close, it might be good to keep tabs on how much Ireland is beating the Saudis by.

[RedSoxFan]

Group A after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
DEN 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 2
SEN 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 1
URU 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 2
FRA 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 1

Results:
Senegal 1 France 0
Denmark 2 Uruguay 1
Denmark 1 Senegal 1
Uruguay 0 France 0
Senegal vs. Uruguay, Denmark vs. France: 6/11, 2:30pm EST

Who will advance?
It is win (or draw) and you're in, for Denmark and Senegal.
If Uruguay wins but France loses or draws, Denmark and Uruguay are in.
If France wins by 2 or more but Uruguay loses or draws, France and Senegal are in.
If France wins by just 1 and Uruguay loses or draws, Denmark and Senegal are in.
However, if both France and Uruguay win, then there's a problem, because everyone in the group will have four points. Then, refer to VP's recent message to see what happens.

My prediction:
The easier pick is to predict Senegal will at least draw Uruguay. Senegal has been very impressive, while Uruguay couldn't score against just 10 Zidane-less Frenchman in 60 minutes.
Can France win by at least two? I don't think so. Maybe if they've been hot recently, but they are far from it. Senegal and Denmark will advance.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Get out your remote control. If France scores early, that will make that matchup very interesting. Otherwise, just watch whichever game is closer.

[Tom Servo]

A better ranking system would be a computer ranking, like Sagarin, that takes that into account, but it doesn't look like Sagarin does World Cup rankings.
There are some other rankings that people have made up. I don't know if any of them are any good or not.

Here is one that claims to be better than FIFA
http://home.sprynet.com/~ronkessler/rankings.htm
Here is one that is in Portaguese I think
http://www.esportes.terra.com.br/especial/2001/02/01/008.htm
This might be the most interesting one. It uses the Elo system which is used in chess. It also looks to be updated constantly.
http://www.eloratings.net/

[RedSoxFan]

Spain 3 Paraguay 1

10th minute: The flamboyant Paraguayan keeper Chilavert takes a free kick just outside his own penalty box and hits it six yards from the opposite goal.. the ball cleared by a Spanish defender, but to the foot of Casillas, who makes a sweeping strike to the opposite top corner of the goal. The Spanish keeper must dive to block it, but the block bounces off one of his teammates, Puyol, and into the goal.

Spain has the slightly better run of play through the rest of the first half, and generates the closer scoring chances, including some for Raul, but can't score a goal.

Super sub Morientes, coming on at half time for Tristan, rises above a crowd of players to head in a corner kick. The header was well placed and had too much pace for Chilavert to react.

Morientes nearly scores again in the 64th minute on a give and go play. His shot is barely high. Spain is still dominating play, even though they've already scored the crucial equalizer.

It is Morientes again in the 69th minute! A cross barely misses Raul, but Morientes is behind him and strikes the ball into the net, which was wide open because Chilavert ran out in a failed attempt to grab the ball after it passed Raul.

In the 79th minute, Chilavert strolled up the field to take a free kick from 30 yards out. His curling shot forces a diving save by Casillas.

In the 83rd minute, Raul has the ball with his back to the next. He makes a move to turn around, and gets off a poor shot, but the referee judges Raul was tripped as he made his turn. Hierro converts the penalty kick, his second in as many games, to put the game out of reach.

Spain advances with the win. If Slovenia beats South Africa tomorrow, Paraguay must beat Slovenia and win the goal difference tiebreaker to advance.

[RedSoxFan]

England 1 Argentina 0

A great game, definitely one of the best so far this afternoon. Both teams played very well.

Now with four points in two matches, England is likely to emerge from the group of death, along with the winner of Argentina - Sweden.

I took notes during the game on my computer for my summary, but my normally reliable computer froze! So instead, I'll have to go to my friends at FIFAworldcup.com for the recap: (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/020607/2/txp.html)

With history and drama filling the dome in Sapporo, Japan, England threw Group F into chaos with a 0-1 victory over old enemies Argentina. Exorcising the ghosts of France 98, David Beckham scored the only goal of the hard-fought match from the penalty spot.

It was Michael Owen who drew the penalty just before half-time, and the lightning quick striker also hit an Argentine post for the English. Argentina controlled most of the possession in the match and poured the pressure on in the final 20 minutes, but they were consistently missing the final ball. The result leaves the South Americans stuck on three points with both Sweden and England leaping over them today to four. England now face Nigeria on 12 June knowing that they control they’re own destiny.

Javier Zanetti provided the first chance of the match when he struck a 25-metre shot well, but England goalkeeper David Seaman had little trouble making the save (6’).

Moments later, Argentina were attacking again. This time Juan Sorin used a clever back heel from inside the penalty area to spring Kily Gonzalez, whose shot skipped past the far post (8’).

The intensity began to pick up when Gabriel Batistuta was cautioned for unnecessarily running into Ashley Cole after the England defender had already played the ball (13’).

England had a quality chance midway through the half when Liverpool star Michael Owen broke down two defenders on the right side. Owen let a shot go from 14 metres that found its way through the legs of defender Walter Samuel but could not stay inside the far post as the ball caromed back toward the England striker but was cleared away for a corner (25’).

Argentina came right back when Batistuta had a clear header from eight yards that was stopped by Seaman (25’). Gonzalez’ eyes lit up when a right-wing cross was deflected at the near post and popped back to him at the far post, but his strong volley sailed just high (31’).

When Owen went down in the penalty area after light contact with Mauricio Pochettino, the referee, Mr. Pierluigi Collina, pointed to the penalty spot. David Beckham stepped up and made no mistake with a low shot just to the left of Cavallero, who was caught leaning to his right (0:1, 44’).

Argentina wasted no time in their second-half hunt for an equaliser, as fresh substitute Pablo Aimar launched a 20-metre shot that Seaman scooped up easily (46‘).

But England quickly gained the momentum. Owen, moving to his right on a similar play that led to his shot off the woodwork in the first half, used a quick burst to get past Diego Placente, but this time his shot missed the goal completely (48’).

Paul Scholes stepped into a half-clearance by Argentina 25 metres out and struck a volley that Cavallero had to punch away (49’). Then it was Beckham who nearly had his second when he out-muscled Placente in the area but knocked his left-footer well wide (55’).

And England kept coming. This time Teddy Sheringham latched onto a volley on the right side, and his splendid 16-metre effort was again punched away by the goalkeeper (58’).

Some good combination work created a chance for Aimar, but his long-range blast was well over the crossbar (68’). Though not that dangerous, the opportunity brought some life back into Argentina, who several times earlier looked like they would be pulling the ball out of their net again.

Now it was England back on their heels. From an Aimar free kick 30 metres out, Pochettino rose above everyone at the back post, but his header drifted wide (74’). Minutes later, Pochettino won another header off a corner kick, forcing Seaman to make a diving save (77’).

But the defensive corps held strong and England had their revenge.

[RedSoxFan]

Sweden 2 Nigeria 1

It's sometimes hard to get out of bed at 2:30am EST for all the games. Fortunately, our friends at FIFAworldcup.com were at the game and watching diligently, and help (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/020607/2/thx.html) me out once again:

A first half poach and a second half penalty kick from Sweden’s Henrik Larsson were enough to make Nigeria the first team from Group F to be eliminated from the competition. Young star, Julius Aghahowa had given the Africans the lead in the 27th minute with a brilliant leaping header.
It was an open, exciting match with both teams creating many chances, but the Nigerians were unfortunate not to come away with a point. The ball hit the Scandinavian woodwork twice, and the Swedes also cleared the ball off the line twice. But, the hard-fighting Swedes gave no quarter and are still in with a shout to advance into the second round. The Nigerians will finish up their 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan™ against England on 12 June.

With Nigeria teetering on the brink of elimination, Sweden came out strong looking for an early goal to erase any thoughts Nigeria may have had about staying alive in the Group of Death. Their early pressure resulted in two good chances and three corner kicks in the opening four minutes.

Nigeria withstood the early onslaught, however, and were soon controlling the midfield. Niclas Alexandersson fouled Ifeanyi Udeze on the left side and the Nigerians were given their first good opportunity. But Jay Jay Okocha’s hard shot went high (15’).

After Freddie Ljungberg made a courageous run through a pair of defenders and into the penalty area to earn a corner, Johan Mjallby’s near-post header was saved off the line at the back post by Nigerian defender Justice Christopher (23’).

On the other end, Nigeria’s Julius Aghahowa opened the scoring with a flick header just inside the far post from Joseph Yobo’s right-wing cross (0:1, 27’). Aghahowa’s celebration was as exciting as the goal itself, as the 20-year-old forward strung together six handsprings and finished with a full flip near the corner flag.

Larsson levelled the score with a good individual effort when he managed to keep himself onside to receive Ljungberg’s through pass and then toe-poked the ball past Ike Shorunmu (1:1, 36’).

With the pace still back and forth, Nigeria tried to answer back. When it seemed Okocha’s shot from the left side would go wanting, Sweden defender Teddy Lucic’s clearing attempt was blocked by his own man, Mjallby, and crashed off the post (40’).

A glimpse at the importance of the match for Nigeria was evident when defender Taribo West, with blood splattered on his jersey, was stitched up just beyond the touch-line after suffering a cut above his left eye early in the second half.

Minutes later, West was back on the pitch, in time to slow down a Sweden counter-attack. But when the ball was played to an unmarked Larsson near the penalty spot, Udeze had little choice but to pull down the Celtic star. Larsson’s powerful penalty went through the outstretched hands of Shorunmu and Sweden were ahead (2:1, 62’).

West, clearly visible now with a bandage circling his head, was spotted at the edge of the goal box from the left side, but his downward header bounced wide of the near post (72’).

John Utaka and Yobo then went close within minutes of each other. First Utaka was sent into space on the left side. After rounding goalkeeper Magnus Hedman, his shot was cleared off the line by Mjallby (82’). Then from the top of the area, Yobo made a move to his left and ripped a low shot off the post to Hedman’s right (83’).

Arsenal star Nwankwo Kanu, who entered the game in the 66th minute despite not being fully fit, had the final chance for Nigeria when his 18-metre chip shot was swallowed up by Hedman (91’).

[RedSoxFan]

Group F after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
SWE 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 2
ENG 2 --- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 1
ARG 2 --- 1 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3 -- 1 -- 1
NGA 2 --- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3

Results:
England 1 Sweden 1
Argentina 1 Nigeria 0
Sweden 2 Nigeria 1
England 1 Argentina 0
England vs. Nigeria, Argentina vs. Sweden: 6/12, 2:30 am 6/12

Who will advance?
It is draw or win and you're in for England and Sweden, and win and you're in for Argentina.
If England loses and Sweden wins, they still advance. If Argentina wins, see below. If it is a draw, England must battle tiebreaks with Argentina. If England loses by two goals or more, Argentina definitely advances. If the loss is by one goal, Argentina must score 2 more goals than England to advance.
If Sweden loses, Argentina is in. Sweden can only advance if England also loses. Whoever loses worse will not advance and the other will. If they both lose by the same margin, we look to the goals scored tiebreaker, and Sweden leads that by one.
Nigeria cannot advance.

My prediction:
England and Argentina will both win, and both will advance. England will get the #1 seeding.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Argentina vs. Sweden: The winner advances (and Sweden advances if there is a draw). It also has the added drama that the other big favorite to win it all (in addition to France) may not advance either. England will probably finish off a disheartened Nigeria side with relative ease.

[Hanse]

Anyone else think Italy got completely screwed against Croatia? Two goals disallowed - the first was clearly a bad call, the second was questionable, especially because the assistant called it. I don't think they'd have had the second if they'd gotten the first, but Italy not getting a point out of the game should have the officials and FIFA hanging their heads.

[VP]

Hey RedSox Fan

What happens if BRA beats CRC 2-1 and TUR beats CHN 2-0?

CONCACAF still going strong, but unfortunately both of the above results are optimistic for CRC, I think, so they may not advance. (I assume the above results in some sort of random draw)

[Traina]

Anyone else think Italy got completely screwed against Croatia? Two goals disallowed - the first was clearly a bad call, the second was questionable, especially because the assistant called it. I don't think they'd have had the second if they'd gotten the first, but Italy not getting a point out of the game should have the officials and FIFA hanging their heads.

Yes, that was so wrong! I could not believe they disallowed the second goal. I agree that the first one was an obvious offside, but the second one should have been allowed.
I can't believe that I got up at 4am to see Italy robbed. :x
Croatia did play well in the second half though

[Tom Servo]

I stayed up and watched the U.S. game this morning. I was disappointed that they didn't try and attack more throughout the game. After they scored, they seemed content to just sit back and hope for the best. The goalkeeping was great as usual, it looks like I voted for the wrong one in the goalie thread earlier. However, I'm of the opinion that if a penalty is missed it is the shooter fault rather than good goalkeeping. Does anybody know why the U.S. only used two of their subs in the game? Supposedly is was really hot and humid and they could have used some fresh legs.

[VP]

1st Match

CONCACAF 3-0-0 (W-L-T) (North America) (WPct 1.000)
CONMEBOL 2-2-1 (South America) (.500)
UEFA 5-6-4 (Europe) (.467)
CAF 1-2-2 (Africa) (.400)
AFC 1-2-1 (Asia) (.375)

2nd Match
No Am 1-0-2 (.667)
Africa 2-1-2 (.600)
Europe 5-4-6 (.533)
Asia 1-2-1 (.375)
So Am 1-3-1 (.300)

Total
No Am 4-0-2 (.833)
Europe 10-10-10 (.500)
Africa 3-3-4 (.500)
So Am 3-5-2 (.400)
Asia 2-4-2 (.375)

How are the number of teams per region determined? Does this success suggest an increase in CONCACAF teams for Germany 2006?

I agree that the US could have been more aggressive today, and that they should have used their last sub. However, they got totally outplayed, had a lot of calls go against them (the fouls evened up in the last 10 minutes when the Koreans made a lot of silly plays) and still got a point.

I think it's pretty simple with the Poland match.
Lose - go home. Yes they could still make it if they Korea also loses to Portgual by more goals.
Tie - 2nd place. No ifs ands or buts.
Win - 1st place. Again Korea has something to say about that.

[Toonces]

First of all, the gambling oddsmakers looked like they were pretty accurate about the US chances against Korea. Even though it ended in a tie, I hardly think that we were just as likely to beat them as they were to beat us. We were being outplayed even before Mathis's goal, so you can't say that is was cause we were only playing defense.

I think it's pretty simple with the Poland match.
Lose - go home. Yes they could still make it if they Korea also loses to Portgual by more goals.
Tie - 2nd place. No ifs ands or buts.
Win - 1st place. Again Korea has something to say about that.

Almost true.

If we lose and:
Korea beats Portugal, we go on.
Portugal and Korea tie, we go home.
Potugal beats Korea by more than Poland beats us, we probably go on.

If we tie: Correct, always #2

If we win and:
Korea loses or ties: #1
Korea wins and we don't out-advantage Korea: #2
Korea wins and we out-advantage Korea: Most likely #1

As for round 3 odds:
Portugal over Korea: .53
Portugal ties Korea: .27
Korea over Portugal: .20

AS for the US-Poland odds, with Poland being eliminated, the odds are still in flux. Before today, the concensus was about .21 US - .26 T -.53 Poland.

Since Poland's loss and elimination, the odds have been shifting in favor of the US to as much as .53 US - .29 Tie - .18 Poland. more on the odds as they stabilize.[/b]

[Dr T Non-Fan]

I missed the South Korea goal!
From what I can tell, there soon will be an American Football idea coming to ROW Futbol: faster players will be defending, just as DB's are faster than WR's.

[Toonces]

Assuming odds for the US of .46-W, .29-T, .25-L (based on a couple updated sites)

Prob of 1st: .39
Prob of 2nd: .43
Prob of 3rd: .18

On a separate site, where you can wager on the group winner, the odds were:

US: .41
Korea: .34
Portugal: .25

[RedSoxFan]

First of all, the gambling oddsmakers looked like they were pretty accurate about the US chances against Korea. Even though it ended in a tie, I hardly think that we were just as likely to beat them as they were to beat us. We were being outplayed even before Mathis's goal, so you can't say that is was cause we were only playing defense.


I disagree: I still don't think the oddsmakers were accurate. Well, first of all, it isn't that the oddsmakers made the odds, the odds were adjusted due to people betting on different options. Regardless, I still think my odds were more accurate. Just because one result happened out of the three does not mean that people underestimated that outcome. It just so happened that the US played poorer than it usually will, and Korea played better than it usually will. If the US played Korea 100 times, which is obviously impossible, I expect my odds to be more accurate.


AS for the US-Poland odds, with Poland being eliminated, the odds are still in flux. Before today, the concensus was about .21 US - .26 T -.53 Poland.

Since Poland's loss and elimination, the odds have been shifting in favor of the US to as much as .53 US - .29 Tie - .18 Poland. more on the odds as they stabilize.

This basically proves my point. Do you really think that the actual odds of Poland beating us actually decreased from 53% to 18%? The US and Poland are not different teams than yesterday. Sure, two poor Poland showings in a row is mounting evidence that they're not as good as others thought. And they're not playing for a spot in the 2nd round. But it just shows how the opinion of bettors sway. You can't honestly say that you believe the true, actual, real odds of Poland beating us decreased 53% to 18% in less than 24 hours.



I haven't stopped posting game summaries: I hope to be fully caught up, including previews of each group's third games, by the end of today.

[Toonces]

This basically proves my point. Do you really think that the actual odds of Poland beating us actually decreased from 53% to 18%? The US and Poland are not different teams than yesterday. Sure, two poor Poland showings in a row is mounting evidence that they're not as good as others thought. And they're not playing for a spot in the 2nd round. But it just shows how the opinion of bettors sway. You can't honestly say that you believe the true, actual, real odds of Poland beating us decreased 53% to 18% in less than 24 hours.


I was just discussing this question at work. Let me first clarify the bettor's odds don't represent the "true odds" as much as they represent the best estimate of the true odds based on all available data. So what has changed between yesterday and today?

1) We have 2 new data points to base our estimate on, both of which point to the US being better than expected and Poland being worse than expected. Also, being the second game, it helps put the first game's data in a better perspective.
2) Reyna and Mathis both started (even if they weren't that effective) but demonstrated that they were healthy.
3) My understanding is that one of Poland's top players got a second yellow card, barring him from playing against the US.
4) Poland is out of the tournament, giving them nothing to play for.
5) US only needs a tie to advance, not a win. The thought going into the tournament is that US would need to beat Poland to advance, which doesn't fit the US style. Now that they only need a tie, their odds go up.

I think all of these played a factor, but 1 and 4 probably the biggest.

But going to the alternate theory, doesn't this show that the bettors don't have an anti-US bias? That given new data, that they adjust the odds to account for it? Or do you think the new odds are still bias against the US?

By the way, it looks like the concensus odds have settled on US-.46, Tie-.29, Pol-.25

[Dr T Non-Fan]

The announcers last night were intimating that the game would not be called fairly. Apparently this is not news or even a concern from the fairness POV. The officials have a long-term goal in mind: get out of the stadium unharmed.

[RedSoxFan]

... the bettor's odds ... represent the best estimate of the true odds based on all available data.

I just have a big problem with this statement. I've already outlined my arguments against this, so I won't address it further.


So what has changed between yesterday and today?

1) We have 2 new data points to base our estimate on, both of which point to the US being better than expected and Poland being worse than expected. Also, being the second game, it helps put the first game's data in a better perspective.
2) Reyna and Mathis both started (even if they weren't that effective) but demonstrated that they were healthy.
3) My understanding is that one of Poland's top players got a second yellow card, barring him from playing against the US.
4) Poland is out of the tournament, giving them nothing to play for.
5) US only needs a tie to advance, not a win. The thought going into the tournament is that US would need to beat Poland to advance, which doesn't fit the US style. Now that they only need a tie, their odds go up.

I think all of these played a factor, but 1 and 4 probably the biggest.


As for points 1 through 3, I don't think they have that large of a factor. At least, not enough to contribute to such a large swing in winning %.

For point 4, they have a lot to play for: pride. This is a team many people thought would advance, but here they are, with two losses and zero goals. I bet the players are very embarrassed by the outcome, and want to save some face with a good performance. Also, the coaches job may be on the line, and some players' futures on the national team may be affected by how they do individually and as a team in this game. Conversely, the US will be very nervous. They know how important it is for the future of US soccer to advance, especially when given such a good opportunity (they only need at least a draw against a mediocre side). Lastly, as everyone knows, its very difficult to play for a draw: teams rarely have this as the objective, and can choke rather easily. (this kind of addresses point 5).


But going to the alternate theory, doesn't this show that the bettors don't have an anti-US bias? That given new data, that they adjust the odds to account for it? Or do you think the new odds are still bias against the US?

By the way, it looks like the concensus odds have settled on US-.46, Tie-.29, Pol-.25

I don't think it proves anything. It's clear bettors, in aggregate, have a better opinion of the US. But remember, these odds are a result of overall bettor behavior, so it's hard to say what is going on. I don't know what odds I would give of our next match, but the current consensus odds are much closer.

[RedSoxFan]

United States 1 South Korea 1

6th minute, Korea has a good chance.. a pass across the box finds its target who must volley it but the ball goes way high. A kick save by Friedel is forced in the 19th minute, as Korea ups their lead in shots 5-0.

Finally get a decent opportunity in the 21st.. Donovan crosses just in front of McBride. Then, after a throw-in, a cross to Donovan outside the box and his shot goes wide.

GOAL USA!!! O'Brien with an absolutely beautiful lead-in pass to Mathis who got behind the Korean defense. After a touch with the foot to settle the ball, Mathis takes the ball a foot in the air and puts it strongly to the right side of the goal. The keeper had no chance. O'Brien is the magic man: he had the assist on our first goal vs Portugal.

Penalty kick for Korea! 38th minute, Agoos given a yellow for a take down in the box. The merits of the call are questionable. A miracle! Friedel makes the save! The rebound is kicked wide.

The first half was really a tale of two halves in itself. The first 20 minutes were dominated by Korea, the last 28 were pretty even, if not judged with a slight edge in play to the US.

Brilliant save by Friedel in the 47th minute. He had another in the 70th minute off of a shot by Chang, fresh in the game.

Korea scores in the 78th minute. On a free kick from 30 yards out, the ball is played in front of the net, where Ahn beat Agoos and heads it in.

Korea had the better of the play in the 2nd half, as the US seemed content to stay back and defend. Korea had many chances, mostly based on speed and very good technical play. The US defense looked slow and uncoordinated at times. The team as a whole definitely wasn't at its best. Korea played very well, however, and deserved the draw, if not more.

[RedSoxFan]

I stayed up and watched the U.S. game this morning. I was disappointed that they didn't try and attack more throughout the game. After they scored, they seemed content to just sit back and hope for the best. The goalkeeping was great as usual, it looks like I voted for the wrong one in the goalie thread earlier. However, I'm of the opinion that if a penalty is missed it is the shooter fault rather than good goalkeeping. Does anybody know why the U.S. only used two of their subs in the game? Supposedly is was really hot and humid and they could have used some fresh legs.

I think we were scared of their counterattacking speed, and also afraid we might get too tired if we kept running up and down the field. But maybe we just got outplayed technically. I know a goal coming into the game was to maintain ball possession to slow the game down, but I didn't really see it. This wasn't our best performance.

I thought the strike of the ball on the penalty kick was decent. If he had struck it harder, and placed it a little better, Friedel wouldn't have had a chance. But he did guess correctly, and he got pretty far in his reach. Thus, a ball only decently struck to the location Friedel guessed was stopped.

I'm not sure why Arena didn't use all three of his substitutions. Maybe he felt better with the players he had in, even if they might have been a little tired? I really don't know, and I think Arena has done a great job with the team, so I don't want to second guess too much. If I had to question one thing, I would've liked to see more speed in the starting lineup, i.e. Wolff or Joe Max Moore starting rather than Mathis, who's not as fast and has a questionable level of fitness.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

What has changed is that new information has been provided to the market, and the price has responded.
There is still some pro-other-country bias in betting. They're all still betting more money on their team.
This happens in American football as well. I recall the Carolina Panthers beating the spread in far more than 50% of their first season's games, simply because the rest of the league's fans were betting for their own team.
If you want US betting odds to drop, you'll have to fork some over yourself.

I don't think US will be nervous. These are world-class players who have felt real soccer pressure before. Win or lose, 99% of US won't be angry. I like our chances in the future with the youngin's gettin' playin' time.

[RedSoxFan]

Croatia 2 Italy 1

Even play to start, but Italy's Doni breaks free in the 15th minute, but the shot is kick saved. Shortly thereafter, Italy's defensive star Nesta has to come out due to injury. Matzerazzi replaces him. Fortunately Italy has a deep bench, but Matzerazzi didn't have his best stuff this game.

Croatia should have scored in the 26th minute. A give and go in the penalty box resulted in a shot from the side that results in a diving block by the keeper, but he can't clear it, he can only hit it down. Fortunately Matzerazzi was on the spot and clears it.

Croatia looked very impressive in the first half, dominating ball possession and getting better shot opportunities. Italy improved towards the end of the first half, but the Croatian domination was very surprising.

Early in the 2nd half, Italy was robbed of a goal. A pass went into the box, which was passed with a half-volley across the net to Viera, who headed it in, but one of the players was called offsides.

Viera got redemption 5 minutes later. Totti half volleyed the ball across the net to Viera, who skied over a defender to head it to the opposite corner, out of reach of the keper. It was Viera's 3rd goal of the WC.

Croatia got a stunning equalizer in the 72nd minute, however. It started with a give and go between Uric and Jurin from one side of the field to the other, then back across the front of the goal. Uric broke free from the pack and deflected the ball off his leg.

Croatia nearly scored again two minutes later on another cross. But then they took advantage of their next opportunity, this one in the 76th minute. Rapaic had a shot cleared by the head of an Italian defender, but to a Croat who passed the ball pack to Rapaic at the top of the box. He volleyed the shot, which looped over the keeper perfectly in the corner.

Italy, finding itself 2-1, had a heartbreaking miss by Totti in the 87th minute. An excellent free kick hit the inside of the post, bounced across the goal line parallel two inches away, but then eventually rolled out of bounds. The reaction of the keeper was priceless: he just had to stand and watch how the ball went beside and behind him. A couple minutes later Italy had another attempt a couple minutes later forcing a diving save. Then Panucci should have scored on a header in the 90th minute.

Italy's scored what appeared to be the tying goal shortly thereafter, but the linesman called a foul. A long ball was pased in, and nobody actually touched it as it bounced over the sliding keeper and into the goal, even though two Italians attempted to deflect it. It was a controversial call as the foul offense didn't seem to be too bad.

A stunning but controversial upset, not as big as Senegal's over France, but probably a bigger shock than US over Portugal.

[RedSoxFan]

Win or lose, 99% of US won't be angry. I like our chances in the future with the youngin's gettin' playin' time.

I agree we won't be angry. It's a different kind of pressure than what is felt by other countries. I think if we advance, that will be a good catalyst to improving the popularity of the sport in the US, leading to a more popular MLS and better development of our national players. If we don't advance, we lose that opportunity and our national team will be hurt because of that.

[RedSoxFan]

Costa Rica 1 Turkey 1

First half was rather even. Costa Rica was content to let Turkey have slightly more possession in exchange for more counterattacks. Costa Rica's Centeno had the best chance of the first half. His strike, which happened in the 33rd minute, went just over the bar.

Both teams had a couple decent chances early on in the 2nd half, including one by Gomez for Costa Rica and Sukur for Turkey. But Turkey ended up getting the first goal. In the 58th minute, Emre had the ball close to the net, but his initial shot was blocked by a defender. He collected the ball, spun around, and kicked the ball along the ground perfectly in the corner past the keeper.

The next 20 minutes were rather even, though Costa Rica was robbed on incorrect offsides calls three times!

Costa Rica manages to tie it in the 86th minute! An initial attempt from the side goes over the keeper but slightly away from goal. One Costa Rican had already dove past the ball, but Parks was waiting at the back of the goalmouth, and he kicks it in.

Parks for Costa Rica could have won the game in the 90th minute! He had the ball and the keeper attacked, he hit the ball to the side and got past him. Turkey had a couple defenders back so Parks had to still hit it with pace but his strike from a few yards away from goal on the side missed badly.

An exciting game, as Turkey led into the 85th minute, allowed one goal, and got lucky they didn't allow a 2nd for the loss. Now Turkey will have to count on Costa Rica losing to Brazil and hope to outscore China by a lot to advance past Costa Rica on goal difference.

[RedSoxFan]

Mexico 2 Ecuador 1

Surprising Ecuador strikes first, early on in the 5th minute! A perfect cross leads to a good header. The keeper gets his finger tips on it and tips it up, but the ball hits the underside of the crossbar and bounces off into the net.

Mexico strikes back in the 28th minute. Borgetti sticks out his foot to deflect it and does so perfectly, as the ball travels into the net just past the keeper's outstretched arms.

Mexico's Torrado scores their second goal in the 57th minute. A strike from a couple meters outside the box, across to the other side of the goal just inside the post. The keeper, who may have been partially screened by his own man, didn't have a chance.

Borgetti nearly scores again in the 70th minute.. he gets past his defender on the side just a little, and unleashes a shot that rolls on the ground towards the opposite post, but it glances off of it for a goal kick.

Mexico dominated this game, with around 70% of the possession. Ecuador had only three real good scoring chances in the entire match: the goal, and then a couple chances late in the game. Tenorio in the 80th minute executes a great give and go with a teammate, but his shot is barely kick saved. Mendez in the 86th minute kicks the ball after a failed clear just centimeters wide of the post along the ground.

Mexico, with two wins, has very good chances of advancing, but face Italy next. If Italy wins and Croatia beats Ecuador, three teams will be tied with two wins.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

In order to improve our World Cup soccer teams, we need a better method for attracting, retaining, and improving soccer talent.
Main philosophy of our against this is our emphasis on the individual effort and ability over the team's success.
This and other issues won't be resolved by having soccer more popular. Might even make it worse.
Another issue is stealing talent from the other sports, which already have the allure of high salaries.
One aspect going for us is that soccer is on average less violent than football, takes less natural talent than baseball, and has no height suggestions.
Biggest issue is that World Cup is perceived (by us) as THE event in soccer. The leagues cannot objectively measure up. It's like the Olympics in a way. We (on average, of course) won't watch sports that don't contain their highest levels of participants. We don't watch cycling events, except for Le Tour. We don't watch figure or ice skating, except in the Olympics. We don't watch Track and Field except the Olympics and (if follow even remotely) the World Championships. We don't watch horse racing or golf, except for Triple Crown races or Majors.
That's just us. I think it's an efficient use of our entertainment time. I.e., don't waste our time with subpar talent. This makes for a hard road for soccer. And our system of year-round club teams probably doesn't make it any easier for lots of kids to keep liking it.

[RedSoxFan]

In order to improve our World Cup soccer teams, we need a better method for attracting, retaining, and improving soccer talent.
Main philosophy of our against this is our emphasis on the individual effort and ability over the team's success.
This and other issues won't be resolved by having soccer more popular. Might even make it worse.
Another issue is stealing talent from the other sports, which already have the allure of high salaries.
One aspect going for us is that soccer is on average less violent than football, takes less natural talent than baseball, and has no height suggestions.
Biggest issue is that World Cup is perceived (by us) as THE event in soccer. The leagues cannot objectively measure up. It's like the Olympics in a way. We (on average, of course) won't watch sports that don't contain their highest levels of participants. We don't watch cycling events, except for Le Tour. We don't watch figure or ice skating, except in the Olympics. We don't watch Track and Field except the Olympics and (if follow even remotely) the World Championships. We don't watch horse racing or golf, except for Triple Crown races or Majors.
That's just us. I think it's an efficient use of our entertainment time. I.e., don't waste our time with subpar talent. This makes for a hard road for soccer. And our system of year-round club teams probably doesn't make it any easier for lots of kids to keep liking it.

You have lots of good points, though I'd argue that if soccer was more accepted as a mainstream sporting event, i.e., if more MLS higlights were shown on sports center, then people would accept it more, actually watch or go to games, encourage participation by youngsters, and those youngsters playing soccer would have more acceptance by their peers. This would lead to more pure athletes to deciding to devote themselves to soccer, rather than currently more acceptable sports for good athletes, such as football and basketball.

[RedSoxFan]

Portugal 4 Poland 0

Pauleta for Portugal has a couple half-chances early on, but then comes through with a goal in the 14th minute. He gets a long pass while a few feet inside the box, makes a good cut towards the center of the goal, and has a clear shot to the goal which he takes advantage of by hitting a hard strike to the left side of the net. No keeper could have saved it.

Monsoon rains develop by the 24th minute. It will probably be more difficult to score under these conditions, because passing, ball control, cutting are much more difficult. Of course, there is always the possibility of a defender slipping and falling over.

Pauleta adds a second goal in the 65th minute. He receives a cross as he is sprinting towards the goal. With a defender on his back, he pokes the ball through the keeper's outstretched hands and into the net. A minute later, Portugal nearly makes it 3-0 but a strike by Figo hits the goalpost.

Kryszalowicz for Poland nearly scores two minutes later, but his shot is blocked.

Pauleta gets the hat trick in the 76th minute. A nifty cut move in the box gives him a slight opening, and his strike is deflected by the keeper but not enough to keep it out of the net. Rui Costa added the fourth goal in the 87th minute. He redirected a cross right in front of the net.

[RedSoxFan]

Tunisia 1 Belgium 1

Belgium's Marc Wilmots strikes first, in the 13th minute. A cross acros the box is passed back in front of the net, then headed by yet another Belgian to the foot of Wilmots who puts the ball in.

An amazing equalizer by Tunisia in the 17th minute! The free kick just outside the box is struck perfectly into the corner by Bouzaine.

Tunisia almost got a miracle in the 51st minute. The Tunisian, at the top of the box, volleyed the ball, and got off a laser shot, but it was two inches wide. The goalie could do nothing but watch and feel relief as teh ball missed.

The game went back and forth in the 2nd half, with Tunisia the slightly better overall play, especially late in the game. They nearly scored in stoppage time with a hard strike a few feet out of the penalty box: unfortunately the ball went right to the keeper who was able to punch it away. Sonck of Belgium attempted to score the game winner for Belgium 2 minutes into stoppage time but his shot was wide. Seconds later, Tunisia had another game winning chance.

The final 1-1 score didn't indicate how tense and exciting the finish of this game was. Both sides have to be disappointed they could get the game winner.

[RedSoxFan]

Brazil 4 China 0

China dominates the first five minutes and plays the next 10 even, very impressively, until the commit a foul a few feet outside the penalty box, which Roberto Carlos kicked right into the corner of the goal, curling over the wall and past the outstretched arms of the keeper. China remained under pressure as Brazil breaks free again in the 32nd minute. A cross finds Ronaldinho, who passed it back in front of the goal to Rivaldo who first-timed it perfectly. Ronaldo added a fourth goal in the 55th minute.

The Chinese were just overmatched. They weren't afraid though, even beating Brazil off the ball a few times, mounting counterattacks, and had a couple good corner kicks. But they couldn't come close to finishing the few chances they had, and the defenders couldn't handle the speed.

[RedSoxFan]

South Africa 1 Slovenia 0

Slovenia was without their star playmaker, Zahovic, who was sent back to Slovenia after arguments with his coach.

South Africa had the better chances overall in this game that I didn't see. They scored in the fourth minute off of a free kick from Fortune which, rather than Nomvethe hitting it with his head, as he intended, knocked the ball off his right thigh, but it went in the net nevertheless.

South Africa had a few more chances for their second, but Slovenia only had two good chances for the equalizer. Ceh headed a cross on goal in the 71st minute, but it was deflected away by the keeper. In the 81st minute Slovenia had their best chance, but Karic's took a defensive give-away and struck it hard but it sailed just over the bar.

Slovenia was eliminated from 2nd round contention with the loss.

[RedSoxFan]

Japan 1 Russia 0

I missed this game as well, but I'm sure a lot of people watched this on TV and in person in Japan. The game was very close, and either side could have won.

Japan scored in the 51st minute as a one touch pass found Inamoto 12 yards from goal and he shot the ball past Russian keeper Nigmatullin.

Russia's best chance came shortly there after, when recent substitute Beschastnykh received a ball headed down by Khokhlov, then side-stepped the keeper but missed the open net.

[RedSoxFan]

Group A after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
DEN 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 2
SEN 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 1
URU 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 2
FRA 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 1

Results:
Senegal 1 France 0
Denmark 2 Uruguay 1
Denmark 1 Senegal 1
Uruguay 0 France 0
Senegal vs. Uruguay, Denmark vs. France: 6/11, 2:30pm EST

Who will advance?
It is win (or draw) and you're in, for Denmark and Senegal.
If Uruguay wins but France loses or draws, Denmark and Uruguay are in.
If France wins by 2 or more but Uruguay loses or draws, France and Senegal are in.
If France wins by just 1 and Uruguay loses or draws, Denmark and Senegal are in.
However, if both France and Uruguay win, then there's a problem, because everyone in the group will have four points. Then, refer to VP's recent message to see what happens.

My prediction:
The easier pick is to predict Senegal will at least draw Uruguay. Senegal has been very impressive, while Uruguay couldn't score against just 10 Zidane-less Frenchman in 60 minutes.
Can France win by at least two? I don't think so. Maybe if they've been hot recently, but they are far from it. Senegal and Denmark will advance.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Get out your remote control. If France scores early, that will make that matchup very interesting. Otherwise, just watch whichever game is closer.

[RedSoxFan]

Group B after two games:

Team - P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
ESP -- 2 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 6 -- 6 -- 2
RSA -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 2
PAR -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 3 -- 5
SVN -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 4

Results:

Paraguay 2 South Africa 2
Spain 3 Slovenia 1
Spain 3 Paraguay 1
South Africa 1 Slovenia 0
South Africa vs. Spain, Slovenia vs Paraguay: 6/12, 7:30 am EST

Who will advance?

Spain has clinched its spot to advance. It will finish first unless they lose to South Africa.

South Africa just needs a draw vs. Spain to advance. Paraguay's only chance is for it to win, South Africa to lose, and to win the tiebreak on goal difference. If South Africa loses by just one, Paraguay must win by two goals (and if South Africa scores more than 1, Paraguay must win by one more goal). If South Africa loses by two or more, then just a win will do (if South Africa scores more than 1, Paraguay must win by at least one goal).

My prediction:
I predict a surprise: Spain and Paraguay will advance. Though Spain has already clinched, they are still too strong for South Africa. I think Paraguay, with proper motivation, can beat slumping Slovenia by two goals if need be.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
I'd keep an eye on both games. If Spain starts beating South Africa, keep an eye on how much Paraguay is winning by.

[RedSoxFan]

Group C after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
BRA -- 2 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 6 -- 6 -- 1
CRC -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 1
TUR -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 2 -- 3
CHN -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 6

Results:
Brazil 2 Turkey 1
Costa Rica 2 China 0
Brazil 4 China 0
Costa Rica 1 Turkey 1
Costa Rica vs. Brazil, Turkey vs. China: 6/13 2:30 am EST

Who will advance?
Brazil has clinched a spot in the next round.
Costa Rica needs at least a draw vs. Brazil to advance (easier said than done). Turkey must win (easier done than said) its game vs. China and have Costa Rica lose, then win the tiebreak on goal difference. If Costa Rica loses by 1 goal, Turkey will advance if they win by 3 (can advance if win by two if Costa Rica is held scoreless), while if Costa Rica loses by 2, Turkey will advance if they win by 2.

My prediction:
Brazil and Turkey will advance. Both teams will probably win by at least two goals, and that will be enough to advance.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Whichever game is closer. They're both prone to be blowouts.

[RedSoxFan]

Group D after two matches:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
KOR -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 1
USA -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 4 -- 3
POR -- 2 -- 1 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3 -- 6 -- 3
POL -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 6

Results:
Korea 2 Poland 0
United States 3 Portugal 2
Korea 1 United States 1
Portugal 4 Poland 0
Portugal vs. Korea, United States vs. Poland, 6/14 7:30 am EST

Who will advance?
It is win or draw and you're in for the US and Korea, but Korea has the more difficult task. There are still possibilities for either team should they lose. I've seen some of those listed by other posters on here, so I'll save myself some effort.

My prediction:
Portugal and the US will advance. I think Portugal found their rhythm against Poland, and although Korea has looked very sharp so far, I think a determined Portugal team will beat them. Also, the US should manage a draw against disappointing Poland.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
For the Americans, the US vs. Poland, to see if we advance. For everyone else, Korea vs. Portugal. Can the Koreans use their confidence and home support to upset favorites Portugal? Can they avoid becoming the first host country to miss out on the 2nd round?

[RedSoxFan]

Group E after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
GER -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 9 -- 1
CMR -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 1
IRL --- 2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 2 -- 2
KSA -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 9

Results:
Ireland 1 Cameroon 1
Germany 8 Saudi Arabia 0
Germany 1 Ireland 1
Cameroon 1 Saudi Arabia 0
Cameroon vs Germany, Ireland vs Saudi Arabia, 6/11 7:30 am EST

Who will advance?
Germany will unless it loses and Ireland wins, because of its huge advantage in goal difference. In situations where Germany and Cameroon tie, with Ireland winning, Cameroon will be the odd team out because one would expect Ireland to win by at least two. But if either Germany or Cameroon lose, Ireland will certainly qualify in their place. If Ireland doesn't win, Germany and Cameroon both advance.

My prediction:
(Oops, forgot to write this in before the first halves are nearly over, so you'll have to trust me...)
Germany and Ireland will both win, and advance.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Gemany vs. Cameroon. The winner advances, while Germany only will advance in all likelihood if it's a draw. This is a tough task for Cameroon, however. If Cameroon plays close, watch Ireland's score for the goal difference tiebreaker.

[RedSoxFan]

Group F after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
SWE 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 2
ENG 2 --- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 1
ARG 2 --- 1 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3 -- 1 -- 1
NGA 2 --- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3

Results:
England 1 Sweden 1
Argentina 1 Nigeria 0
Sweden 2 Nigeria 1
England 1 Argentina 0
England vs. Nigeria, Argentina vs. Sweden: 6/12, 2:30 am 6/12

Who will advance?
It is draw or win and you're in for England and Sweden, and win and you're in for Argentina.
If England loses and Sweden wins, they still advance. If Argentina wins, see below. If it is a draw, England must battle tiebreaks with Argentina. If England loses by two goals or more, Argentina definitely advances. If the loss is by one goal, Argentina must score 2 more goals than England to advance.
If Sweden loses, Argentina is in. Sweden can only advance if England also loses. Whoever loses worse will not advance and the other will. If they both lose by the same margin, we look to the goals scored tiebreaker, and Sweden leads that by one.
Nigeria cannot advance.

My prediction:
England and Argentina will both win, and both will advance. England will get the #1 seeding.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Argentina vs. Sweden: The winner advances (and Sweden advances if there is a draw). It also has the added drama that the other big favorite to win it all (in addition to France) may not advance either. England will probably finish off a disheartened Nigeria side with relative ease.

[RedSoxFan]

Group G after two games:

Team - P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
MEX -- 2 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 6 -- 3 -- 1
ITA --- 2 -- 1 -- 0 -- 1-- 3 -- 3 -- 2
CRO -- 2 -- 1 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3 -- 2 -- 2
ECU -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 4

Results:
Mexico 1 Croatia 0
Italy 2 Ecuador 0
Croatia 2 Italy 1
Mexico 2 Ecuador 1
Mexico vs. Italy, Ecuador vs. Croatia, 6/13 7:30 am EST

Who will advance:
Mexico advances with a win or draw: in these cases, if Croatia wins, they advance (they can merely draw if Mexico wins). If Italy wins, they and Mexico will advance unless Croatia also wins. In that case, we have a dreaded three way tie at the top, all sides with 2 wins and one loss. Italy will advance from that scenario, because they will have a goal difference advantage over Mexico, while Croatia can advance if they can beat up Ecuador.

My prediction:
Italy and Mexico will advance. Croatia could easily sneak in there though. I have a feeling Italy will come out strong vs. Mexico, and Ecuador is not so soft that it will get blown out by Croatia.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Primarily Italy vs. Mexico, but if Italy is winning, keep an eye on the Croatian score. This is especially tense because pre-cup favorites Italy (along with France, Argentina, and Portugal) might miss advancing.

[RedSoxFan]

Group H after two games:

Team P - W - D - L - Pts - GF - GA
JPN -- 2 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 4 -- 3 -- 2
RUS -- 2 -- 1 -- 0 -- 1 -- 3 -- 2 -- 1
BEL -- 2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 3 -- 3
TUN -- 2 -- 0 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 3

Results:
Japan 2 Belgium 2
Russia 2 Tunisia 0
Japan 1 Russia 0
Tunisia 1 Belgium 1
Tunisia vs. Japan, Belgium vs. Russia: 6/14, 2:30 am EST

Who will advance?
Japan and Russia both have win or draw and you're in scenarios. Japan will advance even if they lose by one, but Tunisia will qualify instead if they win by two. Belgium will qualify if they beat Russia.

My prediction:
Japan will advance. The other game is tougher to predict. Belgium hasn't proven they can win a game, while Russia played well in both games despite getting one loss. I think Russia can at least get a draw.

Game to watch (because they're both at the same time):
Russia vs. Belgium. You might switch over to Japan Tunisia if Tunisia is ahead and the other game starts to get out of control.

[Tom Servo]

Thanks for all the updates RedSoxFan. I'm just wondering how you can do it all. Is there no time for sleep? :-?

[Tom Servo]

How are the number of teams per region determined? Does this success suggest an increase in CONCACAF teams for Germany 2006?
I'm not 100% positive how places are divided up. FIFA would be the group that sets it. I know that Oceania (Australia) wants to have 1 place for themselves, and Asia wants more places because they have a large number of countries and people. There could be some debate about giving CONCACAF another spot, but I don't think it will happen. They still need to get more respect from the rest of the world first. It's only been two rounds of games so far and the teams could still show poorly and not advance.

[RedSoxFan]

Group A:
Denmark 2 France 0
Senegal 3 Uruguay 3

Senegal and Denmark were the first ones to score. Senegal scored in the 20th minute. Khalilou Fadiga converts a penalty kick earned by Papa Bouba Diop (really, he earned an Oscar for great acting, because the contact was minimal), who was fouled in the box by Carini. Recoba nearly ties it 1-1 a minute later off a beautifully struck free kick that curled perfectly over the wall to the side of the goal, but it was saved.

Then a couple minutes later, Rommedahl perfect times a run from the side, and as the ball narrowly gets past the defender on the cross, Rommedahl sticks out his foot to poke the ball to the opposite side of the net, out of Barthez's outstretched arms. France is in deep trouble here, needing a two goal win but trailing by one.

Then in the 26th minute, Papa Bouba Diop scores again for Senegal! Camara broke free along the left flank, then struck a beautiful cross along the ground 15 yards out, and Bouba Diop hit the ball perfectly, just inside the post. Senegal is almost certain to qualify at this point.

Back to Denmark-France: Trezeguet nearly scores in the 30th minute with a shot along the ground to the corner that forced a diving save. One would think with a one goal lead, Denmark would defend en masse to avoid giving up the 3 goals France needs, but why not attack when your defense is not getting seriously threatened, and your ball possession keeps the ball from France?

Bouba Diop scores again! He's scored twice and earned a PK! This goal came in the 39th minute. Diop got behind the defense, barely onside, and volleyed the ball in. The ball barely made it in, as it hit the crossbar and came straight down, but just barely across the line. Interestingly, Abreu for Uruguay had almost the same thing happened, but his ball off the crossbar bounced back into play.

France has a couple good chances late in the first half by Trezeguet and Wiltord, but can't convert.

Uruguay finally gets on the board. A good shot by Silva is blocked, but the ball goes to the foot of Morales, who knocked it in. Morales subbed in for Abreu at halftime. Uruguay is still down by two goals, and must win to advance.

France nearly scores as well in the 51st minute. A Desailly header, from a Zidane corner, hits the crossbar and is cleared.

Tomasson puts the game out of reach in the 67th minute. He may have pushed Desailly over, but he got clear to receive a crossing pass from Gronkjaer and put it in the net. Trezeguet almost scored in the 76th minute but the ball hit the crossbar.

Uruguay cuts the lead to 3-2! A 69th minute free kick by Recoba, Uruguay's superstar, finds Forlan, of Manchester United, three yards outside of the box, who volleys it with a lot of pace to the side of the net. Minutes later Recoba nearly scores on a free kick. Uruguay is just two goals away from the 2nd round and have all the momentum, while France is four goals away.

Forlan should have tied the game in the 77th minute. Forlan broke free and had a 1 v 1 against the keeper, but had a suboptimal angle. He went for the far post and missed by inches. Uruguay had a couple more good chances shortly thereafter.

Penalty kick earned by Uruguay in the 88th minute! Can a miracle happen? This, just after Fadiga earned his 2nd yellow of the first round, so he'll miss the round of 16 should Senegal advance. But Recoba ties it 3-3: can Uruguay get one more in the next few minutes to advance?

Miracle save for Senegal! A strong strike from outside the box caught the Senegal keeper off his line. Senegal had a defender there who had to make a difficult header to clear. The ball goes into the air, and another Uruguayan player heads it but the ball goes wide. Senegal doesn't allow another chance.

Impressive comeback by Uruguay, but unfortunately a tie is not enough. Unimpressive play by France. Who could have possibly imagine the defending champions and the team with the best pre-cup odds to win it all not only would not advance to the 2nd round, but would score no goals? What were the odds of that?

Denmark finishes in first place, Senegal, the surprising team of the tournament, finishes second. These teams play the 2nd and 1st place teams from group F.

[RedSoxFan]

Thanks for all the updates RedSoxFan. I'm just wondering how you can do it all. Is there no time for sleep? :-?

Thanks.. fortunately it doesn't take too long. I write most of my summaries during each game. And I like having those group summaries, at least for my own benefit as I'm reminded who will qualify how and which game to watch.

[PK]

OK, so I am not a big soccer fan. I don't keep up on all the rules and traditions. I saw two things in the US/Korea match (replay last night) that I don't understand.

(1) At one point a US player was hurt. Rule seems to be that if you ever fall down, you are required to hold your leg. After play restarted, Korea took the ball out of bounds for a throw-in. All players on both sides stood around doing nothing. Ball thrown in, Korean player kicks it back out-of-bounds. Is this a standard play for "you get the ball since your guy was hurt"?

(2) US player does a sliding tackle. Hits the ball first and then the Korean player trips over his legs. Back in prehistoric high school soccer, that was a clean tackle, since the ball was hit. Especially good since the ball was hit first. Result last night was a Korean free kick and a goal.

(3) [OK so I can't count.] When did they get rid of the rule that the goalkeeper can't take more than 4 steps holding the ball?

P

[RedSoxFan]

(1) At one point a US player was hurt. Rule seems to be that if you ever fall down, you are required to hold your leg. After play restarted, Korea took the ball out of bounds for a throw-in. All players on both sides stood around doing nothing. Ball thrown in, Korean player kicks it back out-of-bounds. Is this a standard play for "you get the ball since your guy was hurt"?

Once the US had possession, they kicked the ball out on purpose to stop play. The Koreans, as is standard sportsmanlike practice, returned ball possession back to the US.


(2) US player does a sliding tackle. Hits the ball first and then the Korean player trips over his legs. Back in prehistoric high school soccer, that was a clean tackle, since the ball was hit. Especially good since the ball was hit first. Result last night was a Korean free kick and a goal.

I remember what you were talking about. It was a tackle from behind. Referees are not as lenient with these tackles as they are with others. Even if he does get the ball, he may still get called for the foul depending on how it looked. I know in this particular play, it appeared Donovan moved his legs a little bit after the actual tackle that caused the Korean to trip over him.

(3) [OK so I can't count.] When did they get rid of the rule that the goalkeeper can't take more than 4 steps holding the ball?

They have changed it to a time rule, something like 7 seconds. It is rarely enforced.

[Ducky]

Being a casual soccer fan, I think one of the factors that hurts it's popularity here in the U.S. may be the lack of offense. I find it hard to watch 90 minutes of action with a final score of 1-0 or 0-0. I realize that these games can either be the result of 2 teams that thoroughly suck or can also be 2 teams with great defenses & keepers, but the goals are what cause excitement & they are too few & far between for me.

I'll watch a few minutes, but can't sit & watch much of the game unless it's a time like this past weekend when I woke up at 3:30am & watched the first half of Costa Rica v Turkey.

[RedSoxFan]

Group E:
Germany 2 Cameroon 0
Ireland 3 Saudi Arabia 0

Ireland strikes first: Robbie Keane volleys a cross from just outside the box. It somehow threads its way through the defenders to the keeper. It went between the keeper's legs, glancing off of each one on its way through: it just had too much pace for the keeper to react to it.

Olembe should have scored in the 12th minute for Cameroon. He broke free on a great through pass and only had the goalie left. He froze the keeper but couldn't think of a move to do, then hit the goal right at the keeper. It was deflected, and Olembe recovered the ball and tried again but the angle was too poor.

A great save by Kahn prevents a Cameroon goal: he has to make a diving punch away from a free kick, and it bounces off a German defender, just wide of the net. A minute later, Rigobert Song breaks free, receives a pass and heads it inches wide of the post. Cameroon looks very dangerous here. In the 32nd minute Cameroon was robbed of a goal scoring opportunity by an incorrect offsides call.

The Germans come back with a good opportunity in the 36th minute. Ziege takes a free kick, sends it high and looping down to the goal. The spin on the ball nearly tricked the keeper, who was lucky to dive back and tip the ball over the crossbar.

Red Card in the 40th minute of the Germany - Cameroon match! Ramelow earned his second yellow in just 4 minutes and got sent off. Very interesting to see if Germany can hold the draw and still advance. The referee has nearly issued enough cards for an entire deck: 11 in the first half! Have they been deserved? This referee has been more strict than others. At least he is issuing them consistently.

Bode subs in for Jancker at the half and it turns into a brilliant move. Bode gets behind the defense, receives a great pass, and he pokes it past the keeper for the goal. The goal was against the run of play as Cameroon had been controlling the ball to this point in the 2nd half. Cameroon must score twice to advance.

Ireland scores again. Breen volleys a shot from 8 yards out.

Cameroon should have scored in the 72nd minute. Lauren heads it towards the goal but it bounces off the post. Cameroon has a hurried 2nd attempt but Kahn stops it. Their chances are harmed in the 77th minute when substitute Suffo earns his second yellow card in 20 minutes and gets sent off.

Germany has all but clinched the spot in the next round, when Klose gets his cup-leadng fifth goal, and all on headers! He breaks at the perfect time, when the cross is kicked, and heads it back to the side of the goal.

Duff scores for Ireland in the 87th minute to put them up 3-0. Duff received the pass which his defender left to try to block it. Duff's shot stymies the keeper who gets his hand on it but can't control it.

Germany finishes first, and Ireland 2nd. They will play the 2nd and 1st place teams from Group B

[RedSoxFan]

Being a casual soccer fan, I think one of the factors that hurts it's popularity here in the U.S. may be the lack of offense. I find it hard to watch 90 minutes of action with a final score of 1-0 or 0-0. I realize that these games can either be the result of 2 teams that thoroughly suck or can also be 2 teams with great defenses & keepers, but the goals are what cause excitement & they are too few & far between for me.

I'll watch a few minutes, but can't sit & watch much of the game unless it's a time like this past weekend when I woke up at 3:30am & watched the first half of Costa Rica v Turkey.

As more than a casual soccer fan, what interests me more is a close and competitive game. For example, the lone 0-0 game, between France and Uruguay, was very compelling. Also, the game so far with the most goals, Germany beating Saudi Arabia 8-0, was pretty boring because it was a blowout.

Hockey doesn't have a whole lot of goals. I'd argue that with hockey it's harder to see the buildup to a goal and to actually see the goal happen. But it's popular. I think many factors lead to a sport being popular. It is different than what sports fans in the US are used to.

I don't think soccer will ever be close to being as popular as basketball or football, but I think I can eventually rise to the ranks of hockey or baseball (especially if there's a labor strike).

[Ducky]

If there is a God, baseball will strike this year & never return to existence.

[Mtl guru]

As more than a casual soccer fan, what interests me more is a close and competitive game. For example, the lone 0-0 game, between France and Uruguay, was very compelling.

I agree with you. I thought that game was one of the best.

[RedSoxFan]

I thought this excerpt from this article was very interesting, given recent discussions on here. Michael Davies is actually from the UK but he is currently the executive producer of the famous TV show Who Wants to be a Millionaire. On the side, he's covering the World Cup for espn.com's Page 2. His article can be found here. (http://espn.go.com/page2/s/davies/020610.html)


At the final whistle, dozens of loud cheers resound through the press room. Not. I clap, and I hear one other muffled cheer. Football writers truly seem to hate this team. I wonder why. If soccer manages to succeed in the United States, it would be so healthy for the game, and more than that, the United States is starting to find its own swaggering, offensively minded style of football.

My suspicion is that just as part of the reason for the rejection of football in the United States is that it is the rest of the world's game ... and the rest of the world would quite like to keep it that way. Many nations are so sick of being constantly beaten by the hyper-coached, prepared and confident Americans at everything from tennis to track and field to cycling to volleyball (ironically, events the United States does not care about that much) that they just want one thing that they can't be beaten at.

But that won't be possible anymore. The United States has emerged and arrived as a football nation, and I believe we have just seen the beginning. There's nothing the anti-U.S. soccer crowd, foreign or American, could do to stop this. And this is something the anti-soccer crowd in the U.S. should consider -- your greatest allies in your anti-soccer arguments are foreigners who loathe America.

Here comes the rant. This has been building up for years.

And to those who say that soccer will never catch on in the United States and compete in prime time against the other big sports, I say, "Who cares?" Is competitive cycling a big TV sport ... but how dominant is Lance Armstrong? How much do Americans watch track and field ... but did that hurt Ed Moses or Michael Johnson?

However, I do think Americans should ask themselves if, in a nation that claims to have found a new found sense of universal patriotism, we are going to continue to allow the U.S. team to play home games in Los Angeles in front of 90,000 fans screaming for Mexico. I have witnessed that, on home soil, watching the U.S. team almost universally booed as it walked on the field. It made me feel sick to my stomach, opposing fans attempting to urinate on them. But worse, though, is the fact that nobody cares. These U.S. players are about as heroic as you can get in sports. They are not pampered or overpaid, and most of them, perhaps all of them, never will be.

It is the anti-soccer crowd in the United States who are failing to understand the fundamental rule of sports. You cheer for your team. You wankers will cheer for your home-town team in the so-called "World Series," but when the actual world comes calling, you fail to cheer for your country. Who needs you?

Rant over, for now.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

http://worldcup.espnsoccernet.com/story?id=216020&lang=us

Apparently we are watching. All 1 million of us.
I project 1.75 million will watch the US-Poland match Friday morning. Here's hoping for advancement AND last game time slots.

[johnny]

ducky,
before, i could not understand why so many people find a soccer game to be fun to watch. i didn't like soccer then until i actually played it and enjoyed it so much (that if i lived my life again, i would want to become a professional soccer player). the thrill that i find in the game is in the skills that the players show, like how one defends well or makes an excellent cross or pass or evade a defender. and i would want to try out these skills the next time i play soccer. but of course, it's the goals that culminate the excitement. so i guess what i'm saying is, if you play soccer, you'll like to watch and appreciate it more. i guess that's true for other sports, isn't it?...d'oh...

[RedSoxFan]

Group F:
Sweden 1 Argentina 1
England 0 Nigeria 0

Argentina's Sorin has two good chances to score a goal with his head in the early proceedings, but cannot put the ball in the net. They came in the 14th and 17th minutes, both from a few yards out, served on crosses by Zanetti and Claudio Lopez, and were shot directly to the keeper and high, respectively.

Sorin has a flick on shortly thereafter from 10 yards out off of a free kick outside the box, nearly finds the foot Batistuta. Argentina is really getting the better of play so far, and Sorin is getting great opportunities when he pushes forward from midfield: Sweden needs to find someone to mark him better.

Zanetti nearly succeeds in threading a pass through at close range pass the keeper to Sorin in the 36 minute but the keeper blocks it. Argentina has really dominated this half so far but does not have a goal to show for it.

Both games tied nil-nil at the half. The best chance of the England-Nigeria game came in the 45th minute when England's Scholes unleashes a long range shot which bounces off the post. England also had a decent chance earlier after a good run by Owen. England leads in shots at the half 10-7, but they are tied 4-4 in shots on goal and Nigeria leads in ball possession 52%-48%.

An interesting occurrance in the Sweden - Argentina game, as a player on the bench is red carded! Apparently the referee, Ali Bujsaim, of the UAE, did not appreciate his comments, and Caniggia is sent off. He will miss the next match, but it doesn't seem to be a great loss (if Argentina advances), as Caniggia had not seen action yet this cup.

In the 53rd minute, Argentina had two good chances: potential headers by Batistuta and Sorin were missed.

A shocking goal by Sweden! Svensson with an absolutely beautiful free kick. Taken a few feet outside the box, it curls perfectly over the wall and just inside the post. Svensson had another close free kick a few minutes earlier. Argentina is in deep trouble: they must score two unanswered goals to advance.

Zanetti nearly scores for Argentina in the 81st minute. His strike just inside the box on one side towards the far post requires a great save by Hedman. Sweden nearly scored on the counterattack in the 85th minute: the shot deflected just enough to have it hit the crossbar! Despite that, Argentina is really dominating with many goal socring chances but Sweden has all players defending and hasn't allowed a goal yet.

Penalty kick for Argentina in the 87th minute! Maybe a harsh call, and it was just inside the box. The initial kick by Ortega is blocked but no Swedes come to help clear, and Crespo puts in the rebound.

But Argentina cannot score again.. Sweden gets the tie, and Argentina is out! Group of Death indeed! Who could have predicted that neither of the tournament's top two favorites, France and Argentina, would not advance?? And score only two goals between them?

Sweden advances with the one seed, and will face Senegal in the round of 16. England advances with the two seed and will face Denmark.

[Ducky]

Is this really a World Cup thread or a way for RedSoxFan to build up his post count? :D

[Pseudolus]

He's actually passing encrypted messages to his commie handlers.

AllegedRedSoxFan's favorite Red Sox player: Che Hillenbrand

[Ben Kenobi]

In response to Michael Davies:

Sure, I'll be happy if the US wins. Why does that mean I have to watch the game?

[RedSoxFan]

Group B:
Spain 3 South Africa 2
Paraguay 3 Slovenia 1

Spain strikes first. Mendieta's pass for Raul was too far in front of him, but the keeper somehow lets it get through his hands and Raul is there to dribble it into the net.

Paraguay's hopes of advancing were dealt a blow when their midfielder, Carlos Paredes, who drew a yellow in the 4th minute, drew another in the 22nd, and has to leave the field. They get a good oppportunity in the 30th minute. A lot of pressure results in a cross to a header by Cardozo. He got a good head on it but it was a rough angle and the keeper comes up with it.

More bad news for Paraguay: South Africa ties Spain! A cross from the side was headed back across the goal by Nomvethe. It lands five yards from the goal in front of the goalpost and McCarthy beats the Spanish keeper Casillas to the ball and shoots it in.

Slovenia's best chance of the first half came in the 42nd minute when Cimirotic takes a shot that forces Chilavert to dive, and then Chilavert only gets one hand to it to allow just a corner.

Two goals occur almost simultaneously! Spain's Mendieta curled a free kick ball around the wall for a 2-1 lead. But Slovenia scored as Acimovic makes a cut in the box to get open, and nutmegs Chilavert. Slovenia leads 1-0 now.

Just after half, in the 53rd minute, South Africa ties it again. A corner kick is flicked on by Romero, and Radebe was there to head it in the corner. But Raul and Spain come right back three minutes later to lead 3-2. Joaquin cut past his defender and chips the ball to Raul who heads it in from six yards out.

Paraguay finally gets on the board in the 66th minute. Cuevas dribbles in from the side, cuts towards the center past a defender, then cuts the ball back into the corner of the net. A great display of skill there.

Paraguay strikes again in the 73rd minute! Jorge Campos from 25 feet out, his shot goes along the ground and Dabanovic cannot complete a diving save attempt. Paraguay can advance with another goal, or will cast lots with South Africa if Spain scores one more.

Chilavert nearly puts Paraguay in the 2nd round! He takes a free kick from just outside the box, forcing a jumping save and the keeper barely gets his hand on it to deflect it over the crossbar. Shortly thereafter, substitute Nasta Ceh with a violent tackle, which saw his cleat studs hit a Paraguayan in the knee, gets sent off. The teams are now 10-10. Good news for Paraguay of course.

Another excellent chance for Paraguay! Santa Cruz somehow sees a crossing pass get past a teammate and a defender, and sticks out his left foot to get some contact and shoots barely wide. But two minutes later, in the 84th minute, Paraguay does convert!! Cuevas has another great cut, dribbles past a defender, then a strong shot bounces off the underside of the crossbar into the goal. All Paraguay now has to hope is that Spain holds off South Africa.

And they do! It's final. Spain advances with the one seed, and will play Ireland. Paraguay gets the two seed and will play Germany. Paraguay had an impressive comeback, turning the game around from 0-1 down to 2-1 ahead with only 10 men on 11, and then getting one more goal to advance.

[Toonces]

Latest Group D odds:

US Win - .48
Tie - .29
Poland - .23

Korea Win - .22
Tie - .29
Portugal - .49

Ranking (using convolution):
US first = .406
US second = .448
US third = .146

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Not to get too far a-head of ourselves, but assuming advancement, we'll play a team from Group G: One of Mexico, Italy, Croatia. Maybe Ecuador has a chance. I can't figure it out before the games tomorrow morning are over.
Also, we'll possibly meet other Group D team in semifinal, not in final. I thought it would be better to have unfortunate group-mates be able to play in a final match. But that's JMO, ICBW.

[VP]

It would be nice to bump Italy out of the way. Right now they'd be 2nd and play the Group D winner (they trail Mex 1-0 and Ecu leads Cro 1-0.)

[RedSoxFan]

Group C:

Brazil 5 Costa Rica 2
Turkey 3 China 0

Four goals were scored between the two games by the 14th minute.. In the Brazil took a two goal lead. Ronaldo put in the first off a pass from Edilson, and the 2nd one was a result of Ronaldo and Lonnis racing for a pss just in front of the goal: under pressure Lonnis tried to clear it but it just went into the net. In the other game, Turkey got off two a 2 goal lead from a goal by Sas who took advantage of a Chinese defensive mistake, and Korkmaz, who looped a header over the keeper of of a pass from Sas.

Each trailing team had chances later. In the 13th minute, Costa Rica's Centeno chested down a pass in front of goal and could have picked the corner and gotten it past the keeper easily but mishit it. In the 30th minute, Wright had a great opportunity to put a header in but somehow missed. For China, Chen Yang in the 29th minute saw a volley of his hit the post.

Turkey took a 2-0 lead into halftime but there were two more goals in the other game. Edmilson in the 38th minute executed a beautiful overhead kick, but two minutes later Wanchope finshed off a give and go with Wright to close the defecit back to two. As long as Turkey is beating China by two, Costa Rica really needs a draw to advance.

Costa Rica does close the gap to 3-2 with a goal by Gomez in the 56th minute. He headed in a cross from Centeno. But then Brazil finishes off Costa Rica's hopes with two goals in a row in the 62nd and 64th minutes. The first was a volley goal by Rivaldo, and the second a great shot by Junior just inside the near post.

Turkey ended up winning 3-0. Shao was sent off in the 59th minute for a high studs-up tackle, but it wasn't until the 85th minute that Turkey got the third goal.

Brazil takes the one seed, and Turkey the two seed. They will play the two and one seeds from group H, which includes Japan, Russia, and Belgium.

[RedSoxFan]

Group G

Mexico 1 Italy 1
Ecuador 1 Croatia 0

Mexico is the first team to score. Borgetti heads a ball from six yards out in front of one post and heads it perfectly into the side. Mexico has been having the better of the ball possession thus far, and even though Italy has had the better scoring chances, Mexico strikes first.

Ecuador is the first to score in its game! Both teams who need to win are behind 1-0. Mendez hit an exceptional half-volley into the goal. If both Italy and Croatia end up losing Italy advances based on goal difference.

Mexico should have scored in the 53rd minute. They had great teamwork, passing, and cutting inside the box but couldn't convert.

All Croatia needs to advance if Italy doesn't score is one more goal for the draw, but Ecuador, who cannot advance, has been dominating play so far.

But Italy finally scores in the 85th minute! Del Piero heads in a great cross. Croatia should have scored in the 89th minute, but a strike off of a corner hits the Ecuador defender who was standing inside the post.

Mexico advances with the one seed, and Italy with the two seed. These teams will play the two and one seeds from Group D, which includes the United States, Portugal, and South Korea.

[VP]

Ecuador could have advanced with 2 more goals by itself and/or Mexico. Of course Italy's tying goal changed that.

Now, the US plays for a win tomorrow and tries to win the group, so this is all just parlor talk. But would you rather play Mexico or Italy? 2 weeks ago that question would be absurd, and maybe still is. Maybe now that the Italians have survived they will start playing well (just as Brazil struggled through qualifying and is now the unquestioned favorite to win the whole thing). However over the last 2 weeks, Mexico has certainly been the better group.

It would be too bad if CONCACAF went though the 1st round 5-1-3 and then had it's only 2 qualifiers meet each other in the round of 16. Notice how the cream is rising to the top, though. 3rd match winning percentages, thus far: Eur:591, So Am:800, NA:250, Afr:250, Asia:000

[Traina]

Thank goodness for Del Piero! Why wasn't he in the starting lineup anyway? Hopefully Italy will get their act together and continue to advance.

Who would have predicted that Ecuador would have beat Croatia? Wow, this World Cup is full of surprises.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Are your standings including matches between teams in common geographies? For example, Portugal beat Poland so that's a win and a loss for Europe?

[VP]

Are your standings including matches between teams in common geographies? For example, Portugal beat Poland so that's a win and a loss for Europe?

Yes.

Europe is currently 4-4-4 against itself, 11-9-9 vs. others, 15-13-13 overall.
A: Den over Fra
B: Spa over Slo
D: Por over Pol
E: Ger tied Ire
F: Eng tied Swe
G: Cro over Ita
H: Bel vs Rus tomorrow

[Dr T Non-Fan]

How does FIFA decide how many of each area will go to the World Cup? Does it ever change?
Does it change based on their previous appearance, or friendlies outcomes, or Olympics results (even though it's 90% different team)?

[Tom Servo]

Here is what I wrote earlier in the thread. I'm not sure how helpful it will be.
How are the number of teams per region determined? Does this success suggest an increase in CONCACAF teams for Germany 2006?
I'm not 100% positive how places are divided up. FIFA would be the group that sets it. I know that Oceania (Australia) wants to have 1 place for themselves, and Asia wants more places because they have a large number of countries and people. There could be some debate about giving CONCACAF another spot, but I don't think it will happen. They still need to get more respect from the rest of the world first. It's only been two rounds of games so far and the teams could still show poorly and not advance.

[RedSoxFan]

Group H:
Belgium 3 Russia 2
Japan 2 Tunisia 0

Belgium scores first, directly on a free kick from 20 feet out in the 9th minute. The ball was perfectly struck by Walem looping over the wall and into the corner of the goal. The goalie could do nothing but watch.

Finally a goal in the Japan-Tunisia game. A poor clearance by a Tunisian goes directly to Morishima just inside the box and he has no problem putting the ball in. Japan had been dominating the possession and goal scoring chances but finally break through.

Russia finally ties it in the 52nd minute! Sychev gets past the defense and had a 1v1 against the keeper. The keeper comes out to close off the angle and blocks the shot, but it goes over to Beschastnykh who only has a defender standing in the goalmouth to get the ball past, and he succeeds. Belgium must score again to advance. It's quite possible they will: they've had the better goal scoring chances all game, despite having slightly less possession.

Japan looks assured of advancing with a Nakata header off of a cross. Japan will not be the first host country to miss the 2nd round; will South Korea later today?

And Belgium scores! They now occupy the 2nd advancing spot. It was in the 78th minute off of a corner, Sonck made his run across the box, and had to stick his head out as far forwards as it could go to make contact before the Russian defender on his back. His redirection was perfect to the side of the goal.

Belgium scores again! Russia, who had the draw just four minutes ago now are in dire circumstances. Wilmots strikes from the edge of the box in front of goal. It was a very hard strike which glanced off the leg of a defender.

88th minute, Russia's hopes are still alive! Sychev reels in a great pass from a teammate, strikes the ball from 15 yards out with the keeper rushing towards him and cooly strikes the ball just outside of the keeper's reach. Sychev picks up the ball and races it back to the center of the field. The ball gets back in play and the inspired Russian side immediately starts generating goal scoring chances. Three minutes of stoppage time: one more goal for the Russians mean they advance.

But time runs out on the Russians. Japan wins the group and will face Turkey. Belgium must face Brazil.

[Han Solo]

Wow that was quick.
After 5 minutes
Poland 2, USA 0

[jets fan]

At the half, Poland 2, USA 0! What's up with this? :(

[Han Solo]

Other game still 0-0. At this rate, things don't look good for the US

[Lee Mellon]

expected. All we need is a lousy tie from a lousy Polish team? The game is played by people, not convolutions.

[Drzy]

I never did understand why so many Americans underestimated the Polish team... this isn't that surprising. Poland was the first team to qualify from the toughest region to qualify from... sure they've played poorly in 2002, but in 2001 they were one of the best teams in Europe.

[jets fan]

It is now 3-0, Poland. What the Hell's going on?

Also, Portugal just fell behind 1-0.

[wally world]

If Korea holds on, we move on. Otherwise, it's go home. I was demoralized until I just noticed Korea was up.

[jets fan]

quote:

"71 min Hejdek is booked and will miss the second round tie against Mexico, should scores remain the same."

[jets fan]

Episode IV: A New Hope

Poland 3, USA 1

[jets fan]

South Korea has held on to win - US will advance regardless of their game with Poland! :D

[Tom Servo]

Whew! :P

[Patience]

Korea wins, we back in

[RedSoxFan]

Group D:
South Korea 1 Portugal 0
Poland 3 United States 1

An amazing start to Poland - US. In the 3rd minute. Poland's Olisadebe has a shot off a corner blocked, but he kicks it hard above Friedel, and it hits the underside of the crossbar and bounces in. One minute later, Donovan heads in to the net a poor header-clearance from a Poland player but a questionable decision by the referee judging Donovan to have pushed a defender aside on his way up to make contact. One minute after that, Krysalowicz beats Agoos on a run, collects a perfect pass to him three yards in front of the post and pokes it past Friedel. Poland leads 2-0 after just 5 minutes.

Good news for the US. Though Korea has not scored, Portugal's Joao Pinto gets a well deserved red coard for a gruesome tackle.

It was a miracle the US didn't fall behind 3-0 in the 29th minute. Poland had a shot blocked by diving Friedel, then the rebound went off the post.

After the two goals, Poland was content to sit back in a bunker type defense, having 10 men behind the ball. The US dominated possession, but good goal scoring chances were few. Some of the players had a desparate attitude, as they took many long-range shots. Only one of those were close: an O'Brien strike in the 44th minute that was inches off the corner of the net.

Back in the South Korea Portugal game, another Portugese is sent off! Beto earns his 2nd yellow and Portugal has to hold the tie with 9 men to advance.

Zewlakow makes it 3-0 Poland in the 66th minute! The referee misses an offisdes call against Olisadebe, but the cross in after a corner is taken short goes to Zewlakow who speeds past his marker. US in desperation mode now. The US nearly gets the goal back almost immediately. Reyna chips the defense to reach Donovan. With the keeper on him Donovan leaves it for Reyna. The shot is blocked and goes to Mathis, who tries to chip the keeper but his shot goes inches above the crossbar.

South Korea scores in the 72nd minute! The US may back in to the 2nd round after all, though they certainly don't deserve it. Park trapped a cross using his chest, turned and beat the keeper just inside the post.

In the 76th minute, another poor call from the referee. Sanneh barely touches the Polish player and furthermore, gets a piece of the ball on his tackle, but a penalty kick is awarded. But Friedel has saved his second PK of the world cup! Hopefully this can inspire the US to control their own destiny with three goals. Mathis with a strong shot in the 82nd minute but it's off the post. Then the next minute Donovan sends the ball in the next with a great shot.

Portugal started five players who hadn't seen any action thus far in the tournament, and they certainly played for pride. They were loose and played without pressure. The US had a second bad outing in a row and were embarrassed.

Back to Portugal - Korea as the Koreans try to hold on. Nuno Gomez in the 85th minute slides in to receive a pass, just him against the keeper, but somehow cannot score. Then in the 89th minute, the left post saves the US! A great strike by Conceicao. If it comes to that, a heartbreaking miss for Portugal. And then, Portugal has another great attempt by Conceicao but blocked by the Korean keeper.

And it's over! The US will accept an undeserved ticket to the 2nd round. They will face Mexico on Monday, then South Korea will face Italy on Tuesday. Yes the US got lucky, but it's hard to say Portugal didn't deserve it less. South Korea, who most observers picked to finish last in this group, lucky with one draw, has incredibly won the group. Most critics selected Portugal and Poland to advance, but incredibly, an Asian team and an American team advance, and two strong European teams are left behind.

[RedSoxFan]

Thank you Korea. I switched over and watched the last several minutes of the their game.. It's a miracle that Conceciao did not score on either of his attempts late. Perhaps we should give Kim Dong Sung a gold medal as an offering of gratitude.

Did we deserve to advance? No. Did Portugal? No. Hard to argue that Poland did. But someone had to. At least we beat Portugal, I think that counts for something.

If someone wants to post a bracket for the next round, feel free. I won't be able to log back on until later today.

[Shrek]

Second round brackets:

Germany Denmark
Paraguay England

Mexico Brazil
United States Belgium

Spain Sweden
Ireland Senegal

South Korea Japan
Italy Turkey

[VP]

Well, we get Mexico after all, but it hardly feels good. I watched the first 78 minutes of Pol-USA and the last 12 of Kor-Por. For obvious reasons my heart was beating faster for the latter. I counted at least 3 gift-wrapped opportunities for the Portuguese during that time, with a few others that were a bit tougher but quite makeable. All playing 9 on 11.

Yes it's backing in, but it does meet the US' stated goal of making the second phase. Does the way they did it mean they need to beat Mexico to consider the trip a success? I think so.

Another irony - in those last 10 minutes, Korea was in. They were playing for the US more than for themselves. That Korea-Italy game will be something to see.

So who do we put out there vs. Mexico in the backfield? Hejduk is out. Berhalter may have played over Agoos, but now it seems we'll have to use Berhalter and Agoos.


Even with this collapse, here are the region standings through round one:
CONCACAF 4-2-3 (.611) (2 of 3 advance)
CONMEBOL 6-5-4 (.533) (2/5)
UEFA 17-15-13 (.522) (9/15)
AFC 4-6-2 (.417) (2/4)
CAF 3-6-6 (.400) (1/5)

3rd Match alone:
SA .800
Eur .567
Asia .500
Afr .200
NA .167

Places 17-32
17 South Africa
18 Argentina
19 Costa Rica
20 Cameroon
21 Portugal
22 Russia
23 Croatia
24 Ecuador
25 Poland
26 Uruguay
27 Nigeria
28 France
29 Tunisia
30 Slovenia
31 China
32 Saudi Arabia

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Thank you, SK, for not slacking off and kicking us out. Your country isn't as spiteful as I thought.
See you in the semifinals.

[Toonces]

First of all, about the US not deserving to go: I don't buy that they don't deserve it because they backed in. What if they played the Portugal game last and needed a win and help to advance? What if they played the Korea game last and needed at least a tie and a portugal win to advance? The fact is, half of the teams with 4 points advanced, and the US was 1 of the 4.

As for the game, it sure looked like on their face, both the Koreans and Poles were better teams than the US, justifying their position as favorites over the US going into the tournament. I was surprised that the odds shifted so heavily to make the US a heavy favorite by the 3rd game, but I don't think the US has a very good record going into the World Cup as a favorite. They lost to Poland today, and lost to Iran in 1998. I think they might have been a favorite in one of their 1994 world cup games that they tied and lost in 1st round play. I know they were underdogs to Columbia.

Odds for Round 2 - for some reason (perhaps, tradition) wagers for elimination rounds still include ties, so a tie wins if the game goes to OT.

Mexico W-.48 T- .29 USA W-.23
Germany W-.54 T-.28 Paraguay W-.17

Spain W-.55 T-.28 Ireland W-.17
Italy W-.51 T-.29 Korea W-.20


England W-.44 T-.30 Denmark W-.26
Brazil W-.64 T-.24 Belgium W-.12

Sweden W-.43 T-.30 Senegal W-.28
Japan W-.39 T-.30 Turkey W-.31

Essentially, Mexico is a 2-1 favorite over the US, but they are not as heavy of a favorite as some of the other teams. I think the game will be fun to watch.

Finally, I can't wait to see the Neilsen ratings for today's game to see how many viewers switched from the USA-Poland game to the Korea-Portugal game in the last half hour. I was watching Korea for most of the second half and was watching when Korea scored.

[Mr. Grim]

How does Nielsen deal with flipping back and forth every 2 seconds?

[Toonces]

How does Nielsen deal with flipping back and forth every 2 seconds?

Yeah, I did some of that too. I think that would count as both. I believe they keep track of viewership in 15-minute increments.

[RedSoxFan]

Ok, so I do manage to log in over the lunch hour..

Yes it's backing in, but it does meet the US' stated goal of making the second phase. Does the way they did it mean they need to beat Mexico to consider the trip a success? I think so.

I tend to disagree. I think it is still a success. But to change people's perception in the US of the sport, we really need to beat Mexico.


Another irony - in those last 10 minutes, Korea was in. They were playing for the US more than for themselves. That Korea-Italy game will be something to see.

I think they were playing for themselves. To beat Portugal is a big deal. They would never play for the US. All I heard about leading up to the US-Korea game is how much they wanted to beat us to exact revenge on the US and Anton Apolo Ohno for stealing speedskating gold from Kim Dong Sung.


So who do we put out there vs. Mexico in the backfield? Hejduk is out. Berhalter may have played over Agoos, but now it seems we'll have to use Berhalter and Agoos.


Regis will start for Hejduk regardless of the Agoos decision. I think we need to sit Agoos on the bench. He's a nice guy and a fierce competitor, but I think he needs to step out of the limelight and let someone else step forward. The most obvious choice is to start Berhalter in his place. It's slightly possible Arena will start Mastroeni there, he really seems to like that guy.

[RedSoxFan]

First of all, about the US not deserving to go: I don't buy that they don't deserve it because they backed in. What if they played the Portugal game last and needed a win and help to advance? What if they played the Korea game last and needed at least a tie and a portugal win to advance? The fact is, half of the teams with 4 points advanced, and the US was 1 of the 4.
I based my judgment on the fact that we played terrible the last two games, and in particular, against Poland, who played even worse their first two games, and all we needed was a draw and we lose 3-1. Sure, we beat Portugal, but we didn't play well when advancing was on the line. We didn't deserve to advance because we played as poor as non-advancing teams do.


As for the game, it sure looked like on their face, both the Koreans and Poles were better teams than the US, justifying their position as favorites over the US going into the tournament.
As I've said before, just because certain results occur, and certain teams play at a certain level, doesn't justify anyone favoring those outcomes. In fact, I could say "Hey look, the US advanced, all those people who thought the US wouldn't succeed are FLAT WRONG!" because the US did indeed advance. Just because Poland and South Korea outplayed us doesn't mean that favoring them to win would have been correct. Do you think we should have been favored to beat Portugal?


Odds for Round 2 - for some reason (perhaps, tradition) wagers for elimination rounds still include ties, so a tie wins if the game goes to OT.

Mexico W-.48 T- .29 USA W-.23
Germany W-.54 T-.28 Paraguay W-.17

Spain W-.55 T-.28 Ireland W-.17
Italy W-.51 T-.29 Korea W-.20


England W-.44 T-.30 Denmark W-.26
Brazil W-.64 T-.24 Belgium W-.12

Sweden W-.43 T-.30 Senegal W-.28
Japan W-.39 T-.30 Turkey W-.31


The odds that most surprise me is W-Ireland's, followed by W-Paraguay. I also think T-Belgium is real low. Belgium can hold for overtime better than any other underdog out there, yet they have the lowest T odds. It also seems that W-Turkey is a little high.

[VP]

Ok, so I do manage to log in over the lunch hour..

Yes it's backing in, but it does meet the US' stated goal of making the second phase. Does the way they did it mean they need to beat Mexico to consider the trip a success? I think so.

I tend to disagree. I think it is still a success. But to change people's perception in the US of the sport, we really need to beat Mexico.

I agree about US perception, but I don't think that should be the primary measure. You think the players will feel good about things if they come home with one tie in their last 3 games? I don't.


Another irony - in those last 10 minutes, Korea was in. They were playing for the US more than for themselves. That Korea-Italy game will be something to see.

I think they were playing for themselves. To beat Portugal is a big deal. They would never play for the US. All I heard about leading up to the US-Korea game is how much they wanted to beat us to exact revenge on the US and Anton Apolo Ohno for stealing speedskating gold from Kim Dong Sung.
That's just the point. Despite all their animosity towards the U.S., their fingernails hanging on in the last 12 minutes were every bit as much for us as for them. Not saying they were thinking such things at the time - yes they wanted to beat Portugal for the feat of it - but that they had to help us by helping themselves.

[RedSoxFan]

Ok, here it is: RedSoxFan's predictions for the 2nd round. If you're in the Rebel Forum world cup fantasy league, and haven't entered your picks, please don't copy mine! :)

Round of 16:
So, everyone knows there's going to be at least one upset in the first round, right? I mean, France, Argentina, and Portugal all missed advancing to the knockout stage! So my big upset is... Denmark. I've been real impressed with their play. England hasn't done that bad themselves, but I just have a feeling about this one. Are any other upsets possible? I really don't think so.. maybe Turkey over Japan, maybe Ireland over Spain. Perhaps even USA over Mexico. But in all these cases, the favored team has been playing really well. The only underdog who has been playing really well is Denmark (yeah, Senegal too, but Sweden has been playing well too). I would like to throw in a bold prediction: if Korea scores first, they will win. Anyway, my first round winners in round of 8 matchup form, with the score of the game that got them to the round of 8.
Denmark (2-1, OT) - Brazil (2-0)
Sweden (3-2) - Japan (1-0)
Germany (2-0) - Mexico (4-2)
Spain (2-1) - Italy (2-1).

Round of 8:
The toughest of these to predict is the last one, Spain vs. Italy. Spain has been playing awesome, but Italy probably has more talent. Italy has looked shaky, including a loss to Croatia. I have to go with the team that's hot: Spain. They've always been underachievers, but I think this is their year to make noise. Can Mexico beat Germany? It's tough to say, I guess this one is just as tough. I'm going to go out on a limb and take Mexico. I'm not convinced Germany is tough enough. If they make it to the final though, I won't be surprised. I guess I'm saying I can't really tell how good they are. Mexico has been a little more proven so far.
Brazil (2-1) - Sweden (2-1)
Spain (1-0) - Mexico (2-1, PK)

Semifinals:
I think Brazil is the real deal, and I think this is Spain's cup to make a mark for themselves.
Brazil (3-0)- Spain (2-0)

Third place game:
I've said I really like Sweden's game. They've played very well with losing their captain prior to the cup. Sure, they had an easy road to the semifinals, but I think they deserve a third place with a 2-1 victory over Mexico.

Final:
I think this is Brazil's cup, so I'm going with them. They have a ton of talent, and the team is on a roll. Ronaldo finally steps up to the big game and avenges his disappearance at the last World Cup when they lost to France in the final. Ronaldo will score 2 goals in a 2-1 victory.

[Tom Servo]

I'll give it a shot for the 2nd round.

USA 1-1 wins on PK
Germany 3-1
Spain 2-0
Italy 1-0
England 1-1 wins on PK
Brazil 4-2
Sweden 2-1
Turkey 1-0

[Cynic]

Thank you, SK, for not slacking off and kicking us out. Your country isn't as spiteful as I thought.
See you in the semifinals.

Certainly the US has Korea to thank for its second round entry. Still, I want to see Korea and Japan out early. Nothing personal, but I think they have big advantages being the host countries (referrees bias in their favor, huge crowd of supporters). BTW, I watched the KOR-POR game and found the Korean fans a little bit annoying (with all the noises they made).

Anyway, I hope the USA beats Mexico. That would be a great upset!

[RedSoxFan]

Germany 1 Paraguay 0

Germany's first good chance: In the 32nd minute, Klose manages to find himself open 15 yards away. He has a difficult shot to attempt and sends it over the bar.

36th minute Paraguay had a great chance. Off of a free kick a ball is chipped in to Ayala, the central defender who was still in the attack from a set piece. He is forced to volley it from 8 yards out and just had the keeper to beat but misses badly. Two minutes later, Campos makes a cut and has an opening from 20 yards out. He had a good strike on it and it forces the keeper to jump as high as he can to punch the ball out of bounds.

Second half featured dominating play by Germany. Paraguay seemed content to sit back, defend, and rest, and hope for an occasional counterattack. One wonders if they were content to wait the game out and try for the match in penalty kicks. That's a debatable strategy, since most would agree Kahn is the better keeper, though both he and Chilavert are world-class.

Germany didn't really have any real good chances to score, until late in the game. In the 88th minute, Schneider crossed it from the right corner and finds Neuville who found an opening, and Neuville one-times it right into the net.

Though Germany didn't look real good on offense, one has to give them credit for allowing only one goal in four matches, that one being a 2nd half stoppage time goal by Ireland. Germany will play the winner of US - Mexico.

[RedSoxFan]

England 3 Denmark 0

In the 5th minute, a Beckham cross finds Ferdinand all alone at the far post. He heads it down, though right at the keeper. The keeper couldn't get a good handle on it, allows it to bounce, and finally gets his hand on it to push it out, but can't do it before the ball crosses the line.

Owen scores as England has taken excellent advantage of their opportunities. A pass into the box by Sinclair is flicked on by Nicky Butt, and the ball goes right to Michael Owen who puts the ball right in.

Ebbe Sand for Denmark showed good patience and ball control in the box and got himself an open opportunity but put the ball just one foot wide of the post. It would have been a great momentum swinger if they could have halved the defecit.

It starts pouring down rain around the 30th minute and shows no sign of letting up. All the players are soaked, and it's beginning to affect how the players are able to make tackles.

Denmark dominates possession late in the first half, and has some decent chances, but can't get a solid shot on goal. But England, in the 44th minute, got possession and the midline. A long pass to Beckham six yards out of the box. His first pass is blocked by the defender, but the second goes right to a streaking Heskey, who beats the keeper. It is now a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 defecit.

Not much more to report from the 2nd half. Denmark got some decent chances, but no goals. Denmark wasn't as outplayed in this game as the score might indicate. England just was able to convert on their opportunities and Denmark wasn't.

[RedSoxFan]

Senegal 2 Sweden 1, OT

Sweden nearly scores right away in the fourth minute. They had a free kick a few yards outside the box but played it out to the side of the box to Magnus Svensson. It was just the keeper in the way and he struck it well, but the Senegal keeper managed to make a successful kick save.

Henrik Larsson does score for Sweden in the 11th minute! It was off a cross, and he barely beat the Senegal keeper to the ball six feet from the near post in the air and headed it in.

At the other end Diouf nearly drew an penalty kick. It was slightly more than just a shoulder to shoulder challenge, and the call could have gone either way.

Bouba Diop nearly scored in the 25th minute. He was barely offsides when a cross was played to him along the ground, barely under the hands of the outstrecthed keeper. Diop put the ball in the net but an offsides call was made.

Sweden nearly drew a PK in the 34th minute. A Swedish player looked like he was pushed over in the box, but the contact didn't look too bad. A minute, later, almost exactly the same thing happened for Senegal, but again, the referee decided to stay quiet. Sweden had dominated the first 10 minutes of play, but ever since then, Senegal has had the better chances overall.

Camara gets the equalizer in the 36th minute! He is triple teamed at the top of the box but fakes his way to gain an opening, and from 18 yards out unleashes a laser shot along the ground past the oustretched arms of the keeper.

Camara nearly scores again a few minutes later. He was open for a header on a cross but his redirection went well wide.

Sweden should have scored in the 56th minute.. a cross into the box was headed down by a teammate perfectly for Anders Svensson, but he had to volley it and it went wide.

Senegal probably should have scored in the 75th minute. A cross somehow fell into the box through some Swedish defenders and was next to the foot of a Senegal player but took a strange bounce and the ball was eventually cleared. Neither team is waiting for overtime in this game. Both are attacking. Overall, Senegal has been getting the better chances, but either team can take this game.

Sweden looks a little better at the beginning of extra time. Svensson almost scored in the 96th minute with an absolutely incredible move. The ball came to his feet off of a pass at the same time as a defender came, but Svensson takes the ball and spins around to avoid the defender. He then took a shot but it hit the post.

Diouf nearly ended the game for Senegal two minutes later: Diouf nutmegged the defense and had a good shot but it was well wide.

And an amazing finish to the game, Senegal wins! Camara cuts through the top of the box and gets a shot along the goal to go past the keeper and hit the inside of the post and trickle in to the goal. The Cinderella run continues for Senegal, which might not be over: they might even be the favored team over Japan or Turkey to reach the semifinals.

[RedSoxFan]

Spain 1 Ireland 1 (3-2 PK)

Morientes takes a great cross at the near post and heads it perfectly within the far post. Just nine minutes in and Spain has already struck the first blow.

Robbie Keane nearly ties it late in the first half. He receives a chip just in front of the keeper with his back to the goal and attempts to volley it over his head but it goes over the goal. Spain has the better overall play but Ireland still managed some chances.

Much of the same in the 2nd half, except Ireland draws a penalty kick! A questionable decision by the referee, because even though the tackle on the edge of the box by Juanfran did not get ball, it seemed as though Duff stretched his foot down to create the contract. But it turned out not to matter much, because Casillas saved the PK! Ireland had a wide open net with the rebound, but the ball was struck very poorly.

Ireland is doing what it can to tie the game. In the 80th minute Duff struck it from outside the box and it rolled inches wide. Then in the 84th minute, Quinn heads it on to Keane, who tries with a volley to lift the ball over the charging keeper but Casillas gets his hands on it. It is all Ireland in the last several minutes as Spain has all its men back on defense.

Another penalty kick awarded to Ireland, this one in the 90th minute! A poor decision by the Hierro, who had two fistfuls of Irish jersey. Robbie Keane converts, and we're tied!

Spain in a difficult position here, as they do not have Raul or Morientes, both substituted when Spain was still up 1-0, and they are only playing with 10 men. Apparently one of them was too injured to make it out on the pitch for the extra time, and Spain has used all three subs. Spain survives an onslaught by Ireland, and even producing one decent opportunity late in the first extra period.

A couple good chances for both sides, but neither can convert, in the 2nd extra period, and we're going to penalty kicks!

Robbie Keane, who earlier scored on a PK, is first, and he converts. Then Hierro, who caused a PK, converts as well. Then Holland misses! His kick is straight and high, but just too high and it deflects off the crossbar. Now it's Baraja, and he converts. It is 2-1. Connolly, a late sub, gets blocked!! It wasn't a good strike, not very much off center, and Casillas was there. Now Juanfran is up, and he misses! The goalie guessed incorrectly, but Juanfran was a couple feet wide. Ireland is not out of it yet: still 2-1 after three kicks. Kilbane is blocked as well! An exact mirror image of Conolly's miss. Spain can win it on the foot of Valeron, and the Spanish win goes off the post!!! Ireland must score to stay alive, and it is Finnan. He converts. So Spain has one more try to win it outright, and it is on Medieta's shoulders. And Spain wins!!! An incredible finish to an amazing game.

[Traina]

Well at least one upset in this round so far. Senegal beating Sweden!
Impressive

[RedSoxFan]

United States 2 Mexico 0

Arena tinkers with his lineup, with four men making their first start of the cup: Berhalter, Lewis, Wolff, and Mastroeni. A surprise move to leave Mathis, Stewart (who came in in the 59th minute) and Beasley on the bench.

Mexico nearly scores in the 2nd minute as a free kick is played into the box and nearly deflected by a teammate. Mexico is dominating the early play.

But the US scores first, in the 8th minute! Reyna streaks down the right side past his defender, and passes it short just inside the box to Wolff, who bounces it backwards to find McBride, who one times it to the opposite corner, threading the defense.

Blanco tested Friedel from long range in the 23rd minute, but Friedel's diving save prevents the goal.

Defensive confusion almost leads to a goal against the US in the 35th minute. Pope had a poor clearance, and Mexico ended up getting a couple decent shots.

The US has been getting more and more possession in the past few minutes, and Wolff finds himself open in front of the keeper but his shot to the side barely saved.

First half over, US leads 1-0. So far, the US has looked content to allow Mexico the better possession in exchange for knowing that they have plenty of defenders back, especially after scoring the goal. The US has been in a very intriguing 6-2-2 formation.

A few minutes into the 2nd half, Luis Hernandez deserves an Oscar for a phantom dive. It leads to a free kick which forces Friedel to make a jumping deflection over the bar. The ensuing corner was also taken well. Mexico is finally getting some good chances at goal, something they really couldn't accomplish in the first half despite the edge in ball possession.

Debatable refereeing by the referee. O'Brien appeared to punch the ball with his hand in the penalty box. He also gave three questionable yellows to US players, and was fairly lenient in his card decisions with the Mexicans. I remember one violent tackle late in the game on Cobi Jones that many referees would have gone to the red but this one gave the yellow.

And finally the actor receives his prize.. Hernandez served a yellow card for a dive in the penalty box.

The US scores again!!!!! 65th minute, a simple counterattack, Lewis streaking down the left side crosses it perfectly across the box to Donovan just in front of the goal heads it in. 2-0! How many times has a team with just 30% possession been above 2-0?

And the US has won! A big upset in the US's biggest game ever, against one of the hottest teams right now. Not many would have predicted this before the tournament started.

The US faces Germany in the quarterfinals, Friday morning at 7:30 EST. Can the Americans reach the semis???

[Not Mike]

I set my alarm to get up for this one....

What a great game... pretty much dominated by the Mexicans, but the US gets a couple of great scoring chances and capitalizes....

Other than the hand ball, I thought the refs were really out to get the US... some of those yellow cards seemed unwarranted, or else some of the Mexican players should have received more yellow cards.... Blanco is a great player, but he's an a-hole.... he's diving all over the place and stirring up trouble, but Luis Hernandez takes the cake.... dude, you may want to take a shot from 15 yards instead of trying to draw a phantom penalty kick.... regardless, an awesome win...

By they way, how lame is Jack Edwards....

[RedSoxFan]

Brazil 2 Belgium 0

Brazil dominated the first half, with almost 60% possession and the better scoring chances, but the score is still 0-0 at the half. Ronaldo got some good penetration, including one instance where he had to run around a defender to stick his leg out and deflect a cross, and the ball nearly got past the keeper.

Belgium should have gotten a goal in the 35th minute. Wilmots and a Brazilian defender both jumped up for a header in front of the goal, and the ball went off Wilmots' head and into the goal. The referee judged Wilmots to have pushed off, but replays didn't show very much contact.

Belgium actually looked the better side the first 15-20 minutes of the second half, generating the better scoring chances. Wilmots forced diving saves in the 53rd and 63rd minutes.

Rivaldo scores in the 67th minute! He received a pass just outside the box in front of the goal, had time to settle the ball with his chest and turn, and unleashed a shot that the keeper probably would have gotten to except a Belgian defender deflects it away from the keeper's grasp.

Belgium finished the game with the better play, as Brazil was content to defend its 1-0 lead. But a counterattack in the 87th minute, featuring second half sub Kleberson streaking down the side, who serves a beautiful cross just in front of the Belgian defender to Ronaldo, who strikes the ball and watches the ball bounce off the keeper and into the net.

It's a shame for Belgium, as they played well enough to beat most other round of 16 teams, and deserved to have WIlmot's goal in the first half. Brazil moves on to face England which will really be a great game to watch.

[VP]

ESTADOS UNIDOS!! ESTADOS UNIDOS!!

re: Jack Edwards

Yes, I grew a bit weary of "winner goes on, loser goes home". How many times must we hear that? He even said "winner goes home" at one point and didn't even realize his error.

re: Mastoreni

He started against Portugal.

Who is the US MVP at this point? Friedel is the easy answer and I can't argue with that choice. But what about Tony Sanneh? Does the guy have a single turnover in the whole tournament? And those occasional runs up the right wing. Beautiful.

I thought Berhalter and Mastroeni did a nice job on Blanco (I also concur with the personal assessment, Not Mike). Reyna had his best game yet.

Kudos to Arena. He's taken heat, and rightly so for sticking with Agoos until he could no longer walk. But playing Lewis and Wolff over Beasley and Mathis was brilliant - opened himself for 2nd guessing, but we're looking at a 0-0 game without those two. Arena might even go back to Beasley and Mathis for fresh legs on Friday.

Rabbit trail: in one of Italy's early games, I saw that they are unbeaten at the World Cup since 1982. This of course means that they've been knocked out in the later rounds after regulation, where a loss officially counts as a tie. Does it count as a tie only if you lose in penalty kicks, or also if you lose in extra time? Does the winning team also get credited with a tie in the books? I.e., Ireland officially tied. What about Spain? Senegal? Sweden?

[working girl]

Did the Mexicans ever switch shirts, or even congratulate the US team for the victory? I thought it was customary to switch shirts after the game. I noticed a bunch of the US team take their shirts off, then later put them back on. Of course, the TV didn't show everything, but I was trying to look over the interviews. I can;t imagine the Mexicans will be greeted all too warmly when they return home.

Looking forward to Friday morning! (except for the inane commentating, ie torpedo header)

[Mr. Grim]

Is Jack Edwards the announcer? His call at the end was so terrible compared to the famous "Do you believe in miracles". Was he trying to emulate this? If so he failed terribly.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Two comments on scheduling:

1. No more 2:30 games for the West Coast! Woohooo!

2. Why can't the games be scheduled with the same number of days off for each team? US gets Mexico on a day less rest, now Germany with a day less rest. The final Group D and G games could have been played on the same day. (Less scouting, but I think equal rest is more important.)

[VP]

Germany has 2 more days rest than the US. Days off have to catch up somewhere. Senegal played their first game 5 days before the US, for instance, and those days have to be evened out somewhere. I think 2 days vs. 3 days today was more significant than 3 vs 5 will be Friday.

[VP]

Two comments on scheduling:

1. No more 2:30 games for the West Coast! Woohooo!



Tur-Jpn, Eng-Bra, and Spain's QF are all at 2:30 Eastern. I don't think there were ever any games at 2:30 PT.

Friday I'll be kind of slow at work. Got to watch both of those games.

[egg]

How does Nielsen deal with flipping back and forth every 2 seconds?
I apologize if someone answered this already, I haven't caught up with this thread yet.

I was a nielsen viewer for one week. They ask you to keep a daily log of exactly what you watched and/or taped on every TV set you own. Since I loving flipping between channels, in a case like this I would note that I watched both with Picture in Picture. How they record it I don't know, but I would think that both programs would receive credit for me watching it. I don't know how Nielsen takes on the numberous quirks of watching TV, like how does it account for people watching a sporting event in a bar?

[Dr T Non-Fan]

One of the US games was on at 2:30 my time. Couldn't watch it. My personal life requires my sleeping to be done in contiguous spans. First round games had one just about every night. Those would be the 5:30 ET games.

[Toonces]

The answer to your lack of sleep problems is TiVo. Tape the game overnight and watch it that 6:30 the next morning.

[Not Mike]

Yeah, Tony Saneeh is the man... he's playing great D and knows when to make a run.... I thought some of the defenders were getting a little too cute just outside the 18.... just clear the damn ball....

The Germans on Friday.... that's pretty intimidating, I certainly expect the US to lose by a couple, but holding out some hope.... is there anywhere to get sound on the games? ESPN has the gamecast, but no sound.....

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Buy TiVo just for this? No need anymore. I can get up at 4:00 to watch a game. I even get to work earlier than usual as I can shower at halftime.

Besides, I'm not hip to spending $5 a month so TiVo knows what I'm watching and recording (I get the benefit of requesting every Simpsons on the dial be recorded), and (in the future, though the other company already has) record stuff on my box that I don't even want.

[Hanse]

I was a Nielson viewer for about 2 months about 10 years ago, but got removed when I moved to another city. They attached a box to every TV and VCR in the house, and paid $1/month. They also would have paid a significant portion of any necessary repairs to any of the equipment. I wish they had let me stay, because about 3 months after moving, I had major problems with my 32" piece of crap. :swear:

[VP]

I hope KOR gets a goal in the next 15 minutes. You can't like their chances in PK's

[RedSoxFan]

Turkey 1 Japan 0

Turkey strikes first in the 12th minute. Japan had the better of the early play, but a defensive mistake in their end 15 yards from the midline eventually led to them giving up a corner, and Turkey converted: it went well to Umit Davala, who timed his jump well and headed it right in.

Most of Japan's attacking maneuvers were concentrating on trying to use a perceived speed advantage with Alex along the left side, though these forays didn't result in any good chances.

Japan hasnt really possessed the ball well, with many needless turnovers. But any time where they are coordinated, Turkey somehow manages to disrupt things or intercept the ball before Japan can really create a good chance. Turkey seems content to stay back and defend more, and wait for the occasional counterattack.

In the 42nd minute Alex took a free kick from 19 yards out almost perfectly: the almost meaning it hit the crossbar.

A good chance for Japan in the 52nd minute. A strong Nakata strike deflects off a Turkey defender startling the keeper, but Rustu is able to recover and grab the ball before damage is done.

Turkey holds on for the win. Japan just couldn't create good enough chances in the 2nd half. Turkey really played impressively, and their game against Senegal should be very exciting, as one of these unlikely candidates will earn a semifinal berth.

[RedSoxFan]

South Korea 2 Italy 1

Penalty kick for South Korea in the 5th minute! Off of a free kick set play, Panucci grabs Seol's shirt and drags him down, an obvious call for the referee. But Ahn's kick is saved by Buffon!

Italy with a good chance in the 17th minute, as a free kick is played into the box near three Italian heads but the keeper knocks it out for the corner. The corner, however, is well played to the near post where Vieri gets his head on it and the ball goes into the net.

Ahn nearly gets redemption for his missed penalty kick in the 35th minute. He has the ball just in the box with his back to the goal, makes a great turn, but his shot to the far corner is wide.

Tomassi nearly scores for Italy in the 38th minute, as he makes a run towards the goal and receives a well-timed pass from Totti, but the goalie is alert and closes down the angle and blocks Tomassi's shot.

Italy actually has had better chances to score their 2nd goal than Korea has had to score their first. Korea's best chance of the 2nd half comes in the 79th minute, as they get the ball close to goal but the ball doesn't bounce the right way. Italy has done an excellent job this half of denying good chances for Korea.

And Korea scores!!! A soft pass into the box in the 88th minute, and Panucci hits it with his chest. His intention may have been to clear it with his foot, by Seol gets his foot on it first and slides it past the keeper.

One minute later, Italy should have ended the game. A cross goes to Vieri who has an open net five yards in front of him but his volley goes over the net.

Then one minute into stoppage time, Korea nearly scores again!! A cross is head in 7 yards in front of the goal to Cha who bicycle kicks it but unfortunately the ball goes right to Buffon. Then, moments later, Seol has a chance several yards out but at a poor angle and he puts it into the side netting. We're going to extra time. Will Italy be able to shake off the crowd and the Korean momentum?

Korea has the momentum in the extra period. They nearly score in the 102nd minute. A free kick from 20 yards out was taken under the wall, right to the corner, but Buffon barely gets his hand to it.

An amazing call one minute later, as Totti is given a yellow for diving in the penalty box! And it is his 2nd yellow, so he is sent off! It is hard to tell from the replays if the decision was correct, as there appeared to be some contact, but it seemed like the contact was not enough to send a player to the turf, and it also looked like Totti started falling over before the contact.

Halfway into extra time, Korea needs to take advantage of the extra man and score in regulation: you can't like their chances in penalties going up against Italy's quality strikers and Buffon, one of the most well-respected keepers in the world. On the other hand, Italy has departed from the last three World Cups via penalty kicks, do they want a fourth exit in a row by the same manner?

The 111th minute was almost the last. A great cross went to the head of Hwang, but his header went right to the keeper. Italy nearly wins it one minute later. A poor clear by a Korean allows Gattuso a good luck at the keeper but Lee makes a great save.

It's a miracle!!!!!!!!!!! The Koreans have won it, Ahn is the hero with his goal in the 116th minute, a header off a pass to the back post! Definitely the biggest and most shocking upset in this World Cup so far. Can they beat Spain as well?

[Traina]

Aargh, Italy is out! I'm so crushed. Now, who will I support?

[VP]

Region records thru round of 16:

There should probably be some sort of weighting toward 2nd round games, which grows progessively larger toward the final, but I won't add that subjectivity.

CONCACAF: 5-3-3 (.591) (USA)
CONMEBOL: 7-6-4 (.529) (BRA)
UEFA: 20-19-15 (.509) (counted IRE-ESP as a tie) (TUR,ESP,ENG,GER)
CAF: 4-6-6 (.438) (SEN)
AFC: 5-7-2 (.429) (KOR)

The only region that can finish with a higher winning percentage than CONCACAF is CONMEBOL.

[VP]

Quarterfinalists

_______ Eur S.A. N.A. Asia Afr(Host)
2002 ___ 4 _ 1 __ 1 __ 1 __ 1(Asia)
1998 ___ 6 _ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
1994 ___ 7 _ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(NA)
1990 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1(Eur)
1986 ___ 5 _ 2 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0(NA)
*1982 __10 _2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
*1978 __ 5 _ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(SA)
*1974 __ 6 _ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
1970 ___ 4 _ 3 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0(NA)
1966 ___ 5 _ 2 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0(Eur)
1962 ___ 6 _ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(SA)
1958 ___ 7 _ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
1954 ___ 6 _ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
*1950 __ 6 _ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(SA)
1938 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
1934 ___ 8 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0(Eur)
*1930 __ 2 _ 5 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0(SA)

*1982 -round of 12, straight to semifinals
*1978 and 1974 - round of 8, straight to finals
*1930 and 1950 - top 8 finishers

[Toonces]

Quarterfinal Odds (remember, overtime win is not a win):

Germany W - 57% (risk $100 to win $50-$75)
USA W - 16% (risk $100 to win $375-$600)
Overtime - 27% (risk $100 to win $200-$300)

Brazil W - 41% (risk $100 to win $100-$150)
England W - 30% (risk $100 to win $175-$225)
Overtime - 29% (risk $100 to win $180-$240)

Senegal W - 35% (risk $100 to win $140-$188)
Turkey W - 35% (risk $100 to win $140-$190)
Overtime - 30% (risk $100 to win $190-$230)

Spain W - 45% (risk $100 to win $80-$130)
Korea W - 25% (risk $100 to win $200-$350)
Overtime - 30% (risk $100 to win $180-$240)

Clearly, the USA is the big underdog to advance. I also find it amazing the animosity that the world is showing for this US team. They seem to be truly upset that we are no longer the whipping boys of the world.

The other thing I noticed is that he reason we seem so lucky to others and not good is because the best player on our team is the goaltender.

[Mopus]

Quarterfinal Odds (remember, overtime win is not a win):


Clearly, the USA is the big underdog to advance. I also find it amazing the animosity that the world is showing for this US team. They seem to be truly upset that we are no longer the whipping boys of the world.

The other thing I noticed is that he reason we seem so lucky to others and not good is because the best player on our team is the goaltender.

I'll take the contrarian position that it's been a very bad WC so far. Not because of the results but because of the play quality in the first round. A lot of teams that are usually very good were just plain dreadful. Does anyone think that the US, Korea or Turkey have great teams? In relative terms they may be better than the squads they defeated, but in absolute terms, well, a lot of teams just sucked worse.

If the rest of the world is shaking it's head at the fact that the US is still in contention it has less to do with the US being considered a powerhouse and more with the dismal play of their own squads.

[JO]

A lot of teams that are usually very good were just plain dreadful.

"Mais où sont passés les Bleus?!" :D

[VP]

Quarterfinal Odds (remember, overtime win is not a win):


Clearly, the USA is the big underdog to advance. I also find it amazing the animosity that the world is showing for this US team. They seem to be truly upset that we are no longer the whipping boys of the world.

The other thing I noticed is that he reason we seem so lucky to others and not good is because the best player on our team is the goaltender.

I'll take the contrarian position that it's been a very bad WC so far. Not because of the results but because of the play quality in the first round. A lot of teams that are usually very good were just plain dreadful. Does anyone think that the US, Korea or Turkey have great teams? In relative terms they may be better than the squads they defeated, but in absolute terms, well, a lot of teams just sucked worse.

If the rest of the world is shaking it's head at the fact that the US is still in contention it has less to do with the US being considered a powerhouse and more with the dismal play of their own squads.

Let's take them one by one:

France - not much argument. They were awful. 3 times.
Portugal - awful too. I didn't see the Poland game, but apparently they were pretty good there. I think that speaks well for KOR and USA.

Argentina - got beat by two teams playing better than them. Were not awful.
Italy - weren't awesome, but I agree with them that the officiating put them out more than anything.

Not sure how you can really say this WC has been very bad. Great games: Swe-Sen; Kor-Ita; Eng-Arg; Kor-USA; Por-USA; Esp-Ire; Ger-Ire; Bra-Tur; Mex-Ita; Bel-Rus. Of that group, only Portugal vs. the US severely underperformed.

[RedSoxFan]

More odds, these are odds to win the cup at this stage:

William Hill rated Brazil at 12-5, with Spain was 3-1 and England 10-3. Germany was fourth favorite at 7-2, followed by Senegal and South Korea at 16-1, Turkey at 20-1 and the United States at 25-1.

I'm kind of surprised about the US's odds, but on the other hand, given the odds we've seen for the US of late, I guess I'm not surprised. On the other hand, we're the only team who will have to beat as many as 3 of the 4 best teams to win it all.

I'd also like to add that I think the US's odds to beat Germany are pretty lousy. I think our odds to win are at least as good as Korea's odds of beating Spain...

[RedSoxFan]

Quarterfinalists

_______ Eur S.A. N.A. Asia Afr(Host)
2002 ___ 4 _ 1 __ 1 __ 1 __ 1(Asia)


Thanks for the great summary, VP. It's such a pleasure to see such a representation from across the world. It's also interesting that no two European teams play each other. We could either have an all-European final four, or, gasp!, all four teams from outside Europe!!!

[MountainHawk]

Just a note, in a very NHL like move, I believe FIFA credits an extra-time goal scoring team w/ a win, and the losing team with a draw. Both teams are credited with a draw for a penalty shootout, though.

[RedSoxFan]

ESTADOS UNIDOS!! ESTADOS UNIDOS!!

re: Jack Edwards

Yes, I grew a bit weary of "winner goes on, loser goes home". How many times must we hear that? He even said "winner goes home" at one point and didn't even realize his error.

re: Mastoreni

He started against Portugal.

Who is the US MVP at this point? Friedel is the easy answer and I can't argue with that choice. But what about Tony Sanneh? Does the guy have a single turnover in the whole tournament? And those occasional runs up the right wing. Beautiful.

I thought Berhalter and Mastroeni did a nice job on Blanco (I also concur with the personal assessment, Not Mike). Reyna had his best game yet.

Kudos to Arena. He's taken heat, and rightly so for sticking with Agoos until he could no longer walk. But playing Lewis and Wolff over Beasley and Mathis was brilliant - opened himself for 2nd guessing, but we're looking at a 0-0 game without those two. Arena might even go back to Beasley and Mathis for fresh legs on Friday.

Rabbit trail: in one of Italy's early games, I saw that they are unbeaten at the World Cup since 1982. This of course means that they've been knocked out in the later rounds after regulation, where a loss officially counts as a tie. Does it count as a tie only if you lose in penalty kicks, or also if you lose in extra time? Does the winning team also get credited with a tie in the books? I.e., Ireland officially tied. What about Spain? Senegal? Sweden?

Definitely, Friedel is our MVP. I think he's played better than any keeper in the Cup. It's a shame he just signed a 4-year contract with Blackburn before the Cup; he probably could have signed for more if he had waited.

I've been very impressed with Mastroeni during the Cup. He's a newcomer to the national team, and I've thought his play has been a little suspect in qualifying matches. Maybe he should start again vs. Germany. Of course Sanneh is doing well too.

Here's an interesting fact: Reyna playing his traditional role of playmaker, the coordinator between the defense and offense: one draw and a loss to Poland. Reyna either not playing or playing defense on the wing: one win vs. Portugal and one win vs. Mexico. Anyone notice a trend?

It's amazing how well our "subs" have played.. all of our players who weren't expected to start much or make major contributions have played great when they've been on the field. Mastroeni, Hejduk, Lewis, Berhalter, and Wolff. Special mention to O'Brien, who normally plays left back for Ajax, his club team, or outside midfielder for the US, but has played really well as a center midfielder during the Cup. And for Friedel as well, who has been lights-out despite nobody knowing for sure how much playing time he'd get.

Can we possibly get some possession? It seems like we have to rely completely on counterattacks: whenever we have possession, it seems like we lose it under pressure. Maybe that's why we're so content to bunker down with defense and spring out for quick counters?

For betting purposes, it counts as a tie if it goes into extra time. For historical recordkeeping, though, I don't know. We know this at least: Italy last lost in regulation in the World Cup 16 years ago, including this Cup!

I'm going to try to be Bruce Arena here and predict our next lineup. Forwards: McBride and Mathis. Midfielders: Beasely, O'Brien, Mastroeni. Defense: Sanneh, Berhalter, Pope, Hejduk, Reyna. Donvan will sub in in the 60th minute, probably for a tiring Mathis, or Beasley if he's cramping. If we're behind, I'd bring in Wolff or Moore and Lewis, or if we're ahead, I'd like to see Llamosa for anyone on the back line who's tired. We might even see Cobi Jones at some point.

[Mopus]

Let's take them one by one:

France - not much argument. They were awful. 3 times.
Portugal - awful too. I didn't see the Poland game, but apparently they were pretty good there. I think that speaks well for KOR and USA.

Argentina - got beat by two teams playing better than them. Were not awful.
Italy - weren't awesome, but I agree with them that the officiating put them out more than anything.

Not sure how you can really say this WC has been very bad. Great games: Swe-Sen; Kor-Ita; Eng-Arg; Kor-USA; Por-USA; Esp-Ire; Ger-Ire; Bra-Tur; Mex-Ita; Bel-Rus. Of that group, only Portugal vs. the US severely underperformed.

Each time I try and respond to this I end up writing a thesis. So screw it, I'll keep it brief. There have been over 50 games and you describe 10 as great. The games may have been entertaining, but I don't think any of them (except maybe Eng - Arg, for historical reasons) will go down as defining examples of great soccer played by great teams.

My objection to this WC is that there is a hell of a lot of sloppy play by teams who are capable of better(Ita,Fra, etc), and a lot more by teams who aren't. Add to that my sense that the matches are chippier than usual and you might see how I derive my opinion. Or maybe not. Personally, I think better soccer can be found by watching any regular season game in any of the European leagues.

[Guerilla poster]

how much impact is the weather (hot and humid) having on the play? I suspect alot - this also explains Korea's sucess.

[RedSoxFan]

I found a couple interesting articles for all to enjoy:

http://msn.espn.go.com/soccer/news/2002/0619/1396579.html
http://espn.go.com/page2/s/davies/020619.html

The first article just shows how poor losers the Italians are. The second article is another by Michael Davies, and he address multiple topics including the Italians.

As for the weather, it has been very humid and hot when it hasn't been raining. I think it definitely affects many of the players, especially those who aren't as fit, and more as the end of the game nears. It can also have a cumulative effect: more games in a shorter period of time will have a greater effect. Certain teams which are more used to this type of climate will have an advantage, of course. As far as how much this might affect the outcome, I might just envision one team that is slightly more fit than another.

[Han Solo]

If I were Ahn, I'm not sure I'd want to set foot back in Italy anyway.

[Traina]

How dumb to cut Ahn loose because of that.

Claims of match fixing again. Last World Cup, it was claimed that the final was fixed that's why France won. Well, looking at France's performance this time around, it's hard not to wonder.

Anyway, I do agree that the refereeing has been questionable against the Italians.

[RedSoxFan]

The Italians dug their own grave in that game. Had they played like they were supposed to, they never would have lost.

You can't expect the referee to be completely unbiased when you spend the whole game playing dirty, taking dives, and complaining about every single call. I think Panucci deserved a red card for how he dragged the Korean down in the box for the penalty kick. They want to be as physical and dirty as possible without earning a card, and then when they get it, they don't think they deserve it. Then when they lose, they complain endlessly about how horrible the refereeing was. They need to look in a mirror.

[Mr. Grim]

Everybody is whiny these days in sports. No one every loses because they played bad -it is always the refs fault.

[RedSoxFan]

Brazil 2 England 1

Brazil has the better of the first 22 minutes. It's pretty even overall, but Brazil has gotten the better penetration close to the goal with Ronaldo.

England scores first! In the 23rd minute, on a counterattack, Heskey has the ball at midfield and sends a pass to the middle to Owen. Lucio has the inside track to the ball, and gets the touch to bring it down. A big mistake: Owen moved to Lucio's side, and took the ball from him before Lucio could stop his momentum, and then beats the sprawling Brazil keeper, Marcos.

In the last few minutes of the first half England seemed content to keep everyone behind the ball to take the 1-0 lead into the half, but in the 2nd stoppage time minute, they actually push forward a little bit, lose possession, and allow a counterattack goal! Ronaldinho with a long run, uses a nifty move to shake off his defender, and sends the ball to Rivaldo just inside the box. Rivaldo then takes the shot to the opposite lower corner of the net past Seaman. A very exciting first half goes in tied 1-1.

Brazil scores again with an amazing goal by Ronaldinho! He makes an absolutely perfect free kick from 10 yards off the right front corner of the penalty box. The ball was struck right in the upper far corner of the goal. Seaman was caught off his line: he was anticipating the cross and was positioned a few feet towards the pack to intercept a crossing pass, but realized too late that the free kick was actually a shot and could not recover in time.

England came back with some good pressure in the 53rd and 54th minutes, including a cross at close range by Heskey that Lucio nearly clears into his own net.

Another shocking development, as the player of the game so far, Ronaldinho, is sent off!!! A harsh call in my opinion. He makes a poor tackle in the 57th minute, placing his cleat studs directly on top of Mills' ankle, and then gives him a shove for good measure. A dramatic turn of events: can Brazil hold the lead down a man?

England certainly didn't play like a side that was up a man. They've had barely any good scoring chances. Their last one was a corner kick in the 90th minute. Butt got a head on it, but the ball went wide. England has been mentally and physically defeated here. The turning point had to be the late first half goal by the Brazilians. The momentum totally shifted right there.

Brazil certainly earned this victory. They played really well, and it's hard to believe that any country left could defeat them.

[jets fan]

We're twenty minutes in, and the USA is tied 0-0 with Germany! USA has 1 shot on goal, Germany has 0. Time of possesion is 55-45 in Germany's favor. We'll see!

[jets fan]

Ouch! 1-0 Germany at the half. It seems like we've been fouling them a lot, here are some half-time stats:

Ger USA
2 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots 5
7 Fouls 14
5 Corner Kicks 3
1 Free Kicks 1
0 Penalty Kicks 0
1 Offsides 3
0 Own Goals 0
0 Cautions 2
0 Expulsions 0
50 Ball Possession % 50

[Brutè]

Thanks, keep us posted.

[Shrek]

Note: 14 first half fouls against the US - the most they've had in any match was 18 in the physical match against Mexico.

If memory serves, the Ref of today's match was the same guy who called the fantom hand ball in the box near the end of the qualifying match in Costa Rica, which cost the US that match.

Edit: I'm not watching the game, so I can't really tell how valid the calls are - but I can't help but wonder...

[jets fan]

Here is the link that keeps you up to the minute:

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/t/m/58

[jets fan]

This is starting to get ugly. There's been about 6 or 7 fouls/cautions in the last few minutes. We've still been fouling a LOT more than them (21-11 at ths point).

[JO]

Final whistle blows as Germany advances to semifinals to face either Spain or South Korea; United States' surprise run ends...

[jets fan]

I want to congratulate the USA on a great World Cup showing. They exceeded all expectations. Great job guys! :D

[JO]

Yeah dude, better than Canada!! :D

[Lee Mellon]

I was watching Olympic Diving this morning when a soccer game broke out...

[Shrek]

From the prediction thread:
Has anyone else seen Sports Illustrated's World Cup preview issue? They had some interesting picks in there.. For one, they picked Italy to beat Argentina in the final. They picked Cameroon to go to the semis, which I thought was real interesting. They argued there is always a semi surprise (e.g. Croatia last year) Cameroon as good forwards, and they thought Portugal would be too cocky. They also thought Germany and England won't advance, with Sweden emerging from the group of death, largely because they play Argentina third, and the author thought Sweden could upset them because Argentina won't have much to play for if they win the first two matches. They also picked Japan to win their group, and Ireland to win theirs (maybe they'd change their mind with Keane out).

One point they brought up is one that I hadn't really realized which is that Italy has a real easy path to the finals. Argentina, France, Brazil, and England are all on one side of the bracket. Italy's chief competitors are Portugal and Germany. Fortunately, the US is on that side as well, and has decent chances of advancing to the semis if it can only avoid playing Italy in the first round. For that to happen, both the US and Italy have to finish in the same place in their group.
I quit reading SI about 15 years ago, because it was clear they didn't know squat about anything outside Baseball, Basketball, Football and maybe Golf. Well, maybe they do know something and just misspelled "Senegal". Nah.

[Patience]

My company actually showed the game on a large projection screen in the conference area.

[Mr. Grim]

Where is Red Sox Fan with the summary of the US game? Is he too despondent too post?

[Shrek]

I was watching Olympic Diving this morning when a soccer game broke out...
Lee, ya had me puzzled, until I watched the tape. What a bunch of nancies.

[Lee Mellon]

Where's Tie Domi when you need him? The Germans left the field with too many teeth for all the injuries they took.

[RedSoxFan]

Hey everyone.. my internet has been on the fritz and now it starts working again right before bedtime.. so I will get to the game summaries soon.

But before I go, I'll just post some quick thoughts. The US really could/should have beaten the Germans, but that's how soccer is sometimes. I'm very proud of them nevertheless, and I really think they made a mark for themselves. In particular, Landon's performance really opened the door for him in terms of endorsements and, I think, should be the centerpiece of the next advertising strategy for MLS. I hope Bayer Leverkusen will let us keep him (he's on loan from that team through the end of this year, I believe). I'm a little disappointed Beasely didn't get more playing time, I think he's really exciting to watch. But anyway, I'm really excited about these two and the other young players we have coming up, like Bobby Convey of DC United.

Something else you have to like about Donovan: he really loves the game. While most players are taking their time returning to the states, Landon travelled all day today and was expected to start for San Jose in their game tonight. mlsnet.com shows San Jose as leading 3-0 in the 70th minute.

Congrats to South Korea, they played well enough to win. I really thought Spain would win that game. I think the Koreans can beat the Germans: they just have to figure out how to defend the Germans on set pieces and other crosses where the Germans can use their height advantage, but I saw how the US ran circles around them and I think Korea can do that to a greater extent. Now how many people in their right minds could have predicted Korea in the finals??

And the Brazil Turkey match should be interesting.. Turkey nearly won the first encounter between these teams in the group stage, but that was before Brazil caught fire. Brazil has looked unstoppable ever since.

[Cynic]

Do you think there is something fishy about the referees in the Korea's games--Portugal, Italy, Spain? I'm no fan of those teams, but the consistant bias in favor of the home team really disturbs me. Of course this might be just a result of bad referees making serious mistakes. OTOH, I wouldn't dismiss the idea of "crowd" influence." To say that the referees were bought is to go a bit too far, but this whole thing makes me sick.

If this happens again in the KOR-GER game, I think I will quit watching FIFA World Cup for good.

[RedSoxFan]

I've watched all of those games, and I think the refereeing has been very fair. Not to say that there haven't been poor or questionable calls, but when there have been, it wasn't favoring a specific side.

If the media has given the impression the refereeing was unfair, it's only because the losing teams have incessantly whined about it. Italy is the best example. They point all their fingers at the refs, but need to point the fingers at themselves. They played poorly and acted non-stop making it impossible for the referee to detect true fouls.

There is no way that the refereeing is fixed. If it was, I find it very hard to believe they would want to favor Korea. If I were them, I'd fix in favor of one of the European superpowers. Regardless, the referee cannot have that much influence on a game. Sure, they can decide to give a red card vs. a yellow, but they're not going to take a completely obvious yellow and give red, or give a penalty kick on something where there is obviously no contact. In other words, they can only "fix" the games on borderline calls, and not enough of those occur to overcome one team losing because of poor play.

I've seen my share of unfair refereeing: best example were some "friendly" matches the US played against Central and South American teams with referees who were also Central or South American. I've seen referees barely call fouls on obvious yellow cards, and other referees allowing players to touch and lightly shove them without retribution!

[Shrek]

The assistant in the KOR-ESP game CLEARLY blew the call in the first OT. You know the one I'm talking about. I didn't need the camera shot along the line to know it either. The players told me everything I needed to know. I've watched and played enough to know this about players: 140% of the time there is an offsides or a ball out of bounds, some player's hand is going to go up (that 140% includes all the times players are trying to influence a call that isn't made). I didn't see one Korean hand in the air. That tells me even they didn't think it was close enough to try to get the call.

Don't even get me started on the German diving team.

[RedSoxFan]

Thanks for reminding me.. I didn't address the assistants in my post, just the head referees.

The assistants aren't trying to fix the matches, they're just plain bad. It's a tough job though, because you have to be able to tell exactly when the ball is played, be watching the level of the players at the same time, and you have to position your body even with the last defender. I think some of these assistants are watching the ball, then when it's played, they turn their head to look, and then make a judgment call. By then, it's way too late to tell, especially for those offensive players who time it perfectly. They either need to retrain these guys, or find some other system, such as a referee with instant replay.

[RedSoxFan]

For those still interested in the ref debate, Michael Lewis spoke about it at length in his column:
http://worldcup.espnsoccernet.com/story?id=218874&lang=us

[Big D]

The vast majority of the top officals in the world work in the European pro leagues. As it is, they are mostly not used because FIFA likes to use officials from all over the world in the World Cup. That is not such a bad idea, but clearly some of these officals from the smaller countries are overwhelmed and not ready for the world stage. FIFA needs to recognize that staging a World Cup with as few mistakes as possible from the officials is a much more important goal than getting a handful of smaller countries more involved in the Finals.

All refs makes mistakes, and players and coaches are going to whine about the officiating no matter what, but FIFA could wipe out the appearance of fixes and conspiracy by simply hiring the best officials that they can find. Video replay is going to seep into the game eventually, as I think it should, but I think it is going to take a while. I don't think it will be in place for the next Finals.

[Wonder Boy]

i root for the US, and not Italy, Spain, or Portugal, but in the name of stirring up controversy...Let's review the FACTS:

1. Italy: 2 goals called back against Croatia, 2 goals called back against
Mexico.
2. US: penalty kick awarded to Korea
3. US: goal called back against Poland, PK awarded to Poland
4. Portugal: 2 men ejected against Korea
5. Italy: 1 goal called back against Korea. PK awarded to Korea. 1 player
ejected in OT.
6. Spain: 3 goals called back against Korea including one in OT

What is the common theme?
Direct benefits to Korea: #2, #4, #5, #6 (i do believe Portugal deserved
at least the first ejection, but i'll include it here)

Indirect benefits to Korea:
Italy's group was set to play Korea's group in the next round. Obviously
Italy would have been heavily favored. Hence #1. With the US having 4
points and favored against Poland, Korea must have expected to finsh
second, and would not have wanted Italy finishing first.

With Korea simultaneously playing Portugal, a US win against Poland could have eliminated Korea if they tied Portugal, hence #3.

i'm not sure what's going on, and Korea IS a good team, but anyone who saw the Spain game and doesn't believe Spain got SCREWED is kidding themselves. There was an article in the NY Times today dismissing any sort of conspiracy, but i'd like to total the goals called back in these 5 or 6 games that Korea had a vested interest in, and compare them to the entire rest of the tournament.

I couldn't figure out why Italy was being consistantly having goals called back until I saw the end of the Spain-Korea game. That was a goal, Korea LOST, end of story. Accuse me of whining, that's fine, but it's hard to argue with that replay...

[Wonder Boy]

what i meant to say was that if Portugal BEAT Korea, a US win over Poland would have eliminated Korea.

obviously, these conspiracy theories are 99.99% nonsense, but i'm just having fun...since the US was eliminated, i need a new storyline to keep things interesting.

[RedSoxFan]

The vast majority of the top officals in the world work in the European pro leagues. As it is, they are mostly not used because FIFA likes to use officials from all over the world in the World Cup. That is not such a bad idea, but clearly some of these officals from the smaller countries are overwhelmed and not ready for the world stage. FIFA needs to recognize that staging a World Cup with as few mistakes as possible from the officials is a much more important goal than getting a handful of smaller countries more involved in the Finals.

I think a major block is that a referee is not allowed to be from a country in the same conference as either team. Given that there are a lot of European teams, you really have to have a lot of non-European referees available. They might have to go back on this rule just to avoid conflicts.

As to the conspiracy theory, why wasn't the same attention given to Japan? Nobody has come forth accusing officials of calling games in Japan's favor. You have to admit some of this has only come about because Korea has been so successful. Another factor is that Portugal, Italy, and Spain have to be really embarrassed with losing to Korea, so they'll make sure they make a big stink about it. There have been other teams screwed by shady calls too, not just Korea opponents. It's kind of disappointing to have this World Cup tainted by the questioning of the refereeing: especially if the unthinkable happens and Korea wins the whole thing, I bet a lot of people will just say its because of poor refereeing and not because of the truth: Korea is just outhustling everyone.

[RedSoxFan]

And now, finally, the quarterfinal game summaries:

Brazil 2 England 1

Brazil has the better of the first 22 minutes. It's pretty even overall, but Brazil has gotten the better penetration close to the goal with Ronaldo.

England scores first! In the 23rd minute, on a counterattack, Heskey has the ball at midfield and sends a pass to the middle to Owen. Lucio has the inside track to the ball, and gets the touch to bring it down. A big mistake: Owen moved to Lucio's side, and took the ball from him before Lucio could stop his momentum, and then beats the sprawling Brazil keeper, Marcos.

In the last few minutes of the first half England seemed content to keep everyone behind the ball to take the 1-0 lead into the half, but in the 2nd stoppage time minute, they actually push forward a little bit, lose possession, and allow a counterattack goal! Ronaldinho with a long run, uses a nifty move to shake off his defender, and sends the ball to Rivaldo just inside the box. Rivaldo then takes the shot to the opposite lower corner of the net past Seaman. A very exciting first half goes in tied 1-1.

Brazil scores again with an amazing goal by Ronaldinho! He makes an absolutely perfect free kick from 10 yards off the right front corner of the penalty box. The ball was struck right in the upper far corner of the goal. Seaman was caught off his line: he was anticipating the cross and was positioned a few feet towards the pack to intercept a crossing pass, but realized too late that the free kick was actually a shot and could not recover in time.

England came back with some good pressure in the 53rd and 54th minutes, including a cross at close range by Heskey that Lucio nearly clears into his own net.

Another shocking development, as the player of the game so far, Ronaldinho, is sent off!!! A harsh call in my opinion. He makes a poor tackle in the 57th minute, placing his cleat studs directly on top of Mills' ankle, and then gives him a shove for good measure. A dramatic turn of events: can Brazil hold the lead down a man?

England certainly didn't play like a side that was up a man. They've had barely any good scoring chances. Their last one was a corner kick in the 90th minute. Butt got a head on it, but the ball went wide. England has been mentally and physically defeated here. The turning point had to be the late first half goal by the Brazilians. The momentum totally shifted right there.

Brazil certainly earned this victory. They played really well, and it's hard to believe that any country left could defeat them.

[RedSoxFan]

Germany 1 United States 0

A tough loss for the US, who played better than the Germans but were not as fortunate. One would have expected a low final score in this matchup of the best two keepers in the Cup, Kahn and Friedel.

The Germans scored in the 39th minute, off of a cross by Ziege. It went right into the box, and Ballack used his height advantage to get to the ball first, and he headed it into the ground on top of the goal line. Friedel couldn't get his glove on it fast enough, and the ball went in. The Germans' skill on set pieces could be the deciding factor in their matchup against the Koreans on Tuesday.

Donovan had three good chances to score for the US. He forced two great blocks by Kahn in the 17th and 49th minutes. Kahn also saved a Donovan shot in the 55th minute that was a result of a one-two between Donovan and McBride.

The 50th minute saw one of the US's best two opportunities. On the corner from Donovan's 49th minute shot, the ball was served to Berhalter. He volleyed the ball forcing a diving save. Kahn could only get his upper arms on the ball, and it deflected to Torsten Frings who was guarding the far post and standing on the goal line. The ball hit him on the arm and bounced away from goal. The referee wouldn't give the US a break: he ruled the ball was played unintentionally, and that the entire ball failed to cross the goal line.

Their other best chance came in the 89th minute. Sanneh headed a cross from Mathis towards the goal but it went in the side netting.

Reyna nearly scored from the center of the field in the 64th minute. Kahn headed a ball clear from outside his own box, but the ball went to Reyna who took a volley. Kahn might not have been able to stop the ball had it not gone a few yards wide.

The Germans had other opportunities to score as well. Ballack failed to do his best on a near post header from a corner in the 35th minute, and Neuville sent a shot barely over the crossbar in the 74th minute.

The United States played well enough to advance to the semifinals, but they didn't win. I think they've certainly gained a lot of respect internationally. Hopefully they can build on this and we'll see more success in 2006 in the home country of the team that sent them out of this Cup.

[RedSoxFan]

Turkey 1 Senegal 0, extra time

Turkey had a good chance in the 28th minute, as Sukur received a long chip pass behind the defense. The defender caught up, but the ball went to Sas. Both defenders went to Sas, who passed it to Sukur who was wide open 8 yards in front of the goal, but somehow fails to collect the ball.

Turkey very nearly scored the first goal in the 44th minute. Good teamwork saw the ball pass from Sukur to Sas, who then lobbed the ball into the box for Basturk. Basturk headed the ball past the keeper towards the empty net, but amazingly Daf was able to catch up to the ball and kick it over the goal line.

Turkey had the better ball possession by a 62-38 margin in the first half. They were not dominant though, as Senegal had some scoring chances. It seems like either team can win this one.

The second half gets off to an exciting start. Senegal's first good chance was a direct free kick from 25 yards out, and Diouf sends is just inches over the crossbar. But then one minute later, Turkey's Basturk received the ball on a breakaway down the wing, and as he approached the penalty box and a defender approached him, he made a great cut inside but couldn't get a good shot off before another defender came.

In the 68th minute, Senegal has a decent chance as Camara had a good look at goal, but his shot was taken off balance and the clearance by the keeper, Rustu, was not difficult. Then, right away, llhan, who just came in for Sukur, attempts a chip shot from 15 yards out but it ball goes just over the bar.

Except for a couple decent chances for Senegal late in regulation, the 2nd half can largely be summarized by noting Turkey had the better ball possession and the better chances, but were unable to convert the chances in to real good chances, much less goals.

So we head to overtime, and neither of these teams have held scoreless so far in the cup, but the golden goal means one of these teams will be shut out.

And it's over just three minutes into the extra time. Daval sent a cross from the right side to Mansiz, who volleyed the ball from one edge of the goal area to the opposite corner of the net.

[RedSoxFan]

South Korea 0 Spain 0 (5-3 penalty kicks)

So I had made great notes during the game for use in my summary, and my computer froze! So I'm forced to turn to fifaworldcup.com for help: (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/020622/2/16ym.html)

After 120 goalless minutes, all of Korea is in raptures as they eliminated Spain in a stirring penalty kick shoot-out 3 : 5 in Gwangju. The winning penalty came from captain Hong Myung-Bo. The co-hosts have advanced further than any expected and move on to face Germany in a remarkable semi-final in Seoul.
What a long way the Asians have come, having never won a FIFA World Cup™ match before the tournament. It was a courageous performance by both sides and both had fair claims to victory. Korea had fewer chances, but they challenged the outstanding central defensive partnership of Fernando Hierro and Nadal repeatedly. Spain had two goals called back by the referee and Fernando Morientes hit the post.

After a low-key start, the Europeans had the first real chance as Baraja swiveled and bicycle kicked a right wing cross wide of goal (18’).

Spain began to take control of the match with De Pedro whipping in a dangerous right wing free kick that was punched away under pressure by Lee Woon-Jae (24’).

Another dangerous skidding ball in, this time from the left, was headed firmly by Fernando Morientes from around the penalty spot, and Lee Woon-Jae made an awkward save holding the ball but only after colliding with the upright (29’).

La Furia Roja were winning a lot of high balls and captain Fernando Hierro soared above the Korean defence from a left wing corner only to see his header clear the post by inches (31’).

Up to this point, Guus Hiddink’s men hadn’t hit a shot in anger on the Spanish goal despite the noise and colour made by the Red Devil supporters. A deep right cross from the right just evaded Ahn Jung-Hwan lurking for one of his trademark headers (40’).

Joaquin, brought into the side to add pace down the right, sprinted down the flank and bent in a near-perfect centre that both keeper Lee Woon-Jae and Morientes, sliding in at the back post, missed by inches (43’).

A flurry of chances from Spain minutes before the break as first Joaquin couldn’t get his shot away after beating a number of players. Then the ball broke to De Pedro on the edge of the box but the normally lethal left peg fired the ball inches wide (46+’). And in the final action, Hierro had another header from a corner bounce onto the roof of the net (49+’).

Spain started the second half as they ended the first. Joaquin slipped through by Valeron, crossed for Morientes who, from inside the six-yard box, missed a glorious opportunity to give Jose Antonio Camacho’s team the lead, firing well wide of target (50’).

Spain piled on the pressure and Joaquin, roasting his marker again, cut inside on to his left foot but hit a weak shot which was comfortably saved by Lee Woon-Jae (59’).

From absolutely nowhere, Korea had the best chance of the game. A fine run down the left by Lee Chun Soo almost found Ahn Jung-Hwan, but the ball was cleared at the last by Hierro. From the resulting corner, Lee Chun Soo’s shot was blocked by Puyol, the ball broke to Park Ji-Sung, who from the edge of the six-yard box blasted a shot which was brilliantly kept out by Iker Casillas at his near post (67’).

The game was opening up and a neat one-two between Valeron and Joaquin ended up with the latter shooting into the side netting with the pocketful of Spanish supporters thinking it had gone in (72’).

There were few more opportunities as the game headed for extra-time. A long throw-in for Spain was flicked on by Morientes for Baraja who headed over in a good position eight yards out (85’).

Right at the end of 90 minutes, a shot from Lee Chun-Soo had Casillas diving to make the save to his left as Spanish hearts fluttered (91’+).

In the opening minutes of extra-time, Spain had the ball in the net but it was ruled to have crossed the byline following another outstanding run by Joaquin (93’).

Never lacking fight, Korea responded well as Lee Chun-Soo curled a free kick from 22 yards just over Casillas’ cross bar (97’).

Spain were agonisingly close to scoring the golden goal as Morientes, receiving Joaquin’s quick throw-in inside the box, swiveled and shot onto the far post. Substitute Gaizka Mendieta shot wastefully high and wide form the rebound (100’).

Korea had a great chance to go through to the semi-finals as Lee Chun-Soo broke clear down the left and crossed perfectly for Hwang Sun-Hong, but his volley from eight yards was blocked by Nadal (109’).

Both teams seemed exhausted after a tense goalless game as they headed into penalties. It was the co-hosts who performed under the pressure. Hierro, Baraja and Xavi made their shots for Spain, but Joaquin’s miss was all that Korea would need, as Hwang Sun-Hong, Park Ji-Sung, Seol Ki-Hyeon, Ahn Jung-Hwan and Hong Myung-Bo all made their shots, sending the nation into yet another hysterical celebration.

[RedSoxFan]

My predictions for the final four:

Actually, nobody should pay too much attention to my predictions: the ones I made before the elimination phase didn't pan out: I only got three of the eight round of 16 games correct, and only Brazil made it of my picks to make it this far.

But, if anyone really wants to know, I'm picking a Korea upset over Germany. I've been picking against the Koreans at every stage, and they always seem to win. The Germans will have to take advantage of their height on set plays, because the Koreans will outrun them. I'm predicting a 2-1 extra time Korea victory.

Who will the other finalist be? Brazil. They have been playing outstanding, and I really don't think Turkey can compete with them. Brazil will win 3-0.

Will Korea win the final? I don't think so. Brazil is just too skilled and is playing too well right now. Brazil will win 2-0.

[Andy The Clown]

The Fatherland will beat Corea 2-0. ( I watch on the Spanish channel). Corea has had the benfit of way too many favorable calls, that can not last. Corea also seems to be slowing down a bit.

Brasil over Turquia 3-1. Brasil has been impoving with each game, Turquia simply overmatched.

Final Alemania 2 - 1 over Brasil. Brasil controls the game but Alemania gets the goals.

What to do on Sunday? The bars can not serve until noon. I really want to watch the game with some Deutschlander ( I forgot the correct plural).

Maybe I will need to host a party. Or just buy a 12 pack of Spaten( How do you add an umlat) and watch from the sofa alone.

Deutschland uber alles.

[Cynic]

I predict that Germany will beat Korea, though I wouldn't bet my life on it. The score would probably be 2-0 in favor of Germany. Why do I think that Germany will win? Because they seem to know how to win. Besides, teams that I support usually win :) , so we will see what will happen in a few more hours.

Brazil will probably beat Turkey, but it would be close, 2-1 perhaps. Even though it's hard to think of Brazil losing to any team, there is a possibility that they might lose. I think the last time they played each other, Turkey got unlucky. I like Brazil, but I hope that dirty Rivaldo get a red card this time!

Until then, keep my fingers crossed!

[Cynic]

I've watched all of those games, and I think the refereeing has been very fair. Not to say that there haven't been poor or questionable calls, but when there have been, it wasn't favoring a specific side.

If the media has given the impression the refereeing was unfair, it's only because the losing teams have incessantly whined about it. Italy is the best example. They point all their fingers at the refs, but need to point the fingers at themselves. They played poorly and acted non-stop making it impossible for the referee to detect true fouls.

There is no way that the refereeing is fixed. If it was, I find it very hard to believe they would want to favor Korea. If I were them, I'd fix in favor of one of the European superpowers. Regardless, the referee cannot have that much influence on a game. Sure, they can decide to give a red card vs. a yellow, but they're not going to take a completely obvious yellow and give red, or give a penalty kick on something where there is obviously no contact. In other words, they can only "fix" the games on borderline calls, and not enough of those occur to overcome one team losing because of poor play.


I certainly do not think that Korea won because of the referees. They played really good, no doubt about that. My point is, in an international competition like this, a bad decision can determine the outcome of the game. Unfortunately, in this world cup tournament, there have been too many bad decisions made by the referees, and most of them occurred in the Korea's games. Of course it might be just a coincident, but it doesn't make me feel any better.

I also think that the Italians played dirty and whined too much. On the other hand, I have to say that they were being very unlucky the whole time. Five of their goals, I think, were disallowed, and some of them are very questionable.

I'm not imagining all this. I read an article which reported that FIFA president, Blatter, criticized the referee committee for not assigning reliable referees for the quarter-finals. There is no smoke without fire, you know.

[RedSoxFan]

Germany 1 South Korea 0

In the 8th minute, C.S.Lee for Korea one-timed a pass forcing a diving one-handed save from Kahn.

The game is being played pretty even, but Germany so far is getting the better chances. It seems they are following the obvious strategy of serving crossing passes into the penalty box for headers to utilize their height advantage.

Germans have had a lot of pressure late in the first half but the Koreans have managed to defend everything successfully so far.

More German pressure early in the second half nearly results in a goal in the 63rd minute. Ballack had a good crossing pass to Klose who jumped over his defender to get his head on the ball, but should have done better, as his shot didn't have much pace and went right to the keeper.

Ahn, Korea's hero who started the game on the bench, had a good luck one minute later, but missed the goal.

Korea then had a few minutes of good pressure, then the Germans had pressure for a couple minutes. But the Koreans went on a counterattack, led by a great 30 yard run by C.S. Lee past two men, and Ballack was forced to take him down because another Korean was wide open 10 yards to Lee's right. Ballack earned a yellow card for the foul, which means he will miss Germany's next match, whether it be the final or the third place game.

But Ballack could be the hero of the match, as he scores the first goal! Neuville with a great counterattacking run down the side, kicks it in front of the goal past another defender he was drawing. Ballack came into the box unmarked and unleashed a one-time shot. That shot was saved, but the rebound went right back to him, and using his left foot, he knocked the ball over the keeper to the opposite corner.

Another well-deserved yellow for Germany, as Neuville took a dive in the penalty box. Really no need to risk a yellow to attempt to earn a penalty kick this late in the game with just 7 or 8 minutes to go. But what is worse is that Neuville may miss the final with a second yellow (they are appealing his yellow in the US match as one that should have been assigned to Jeremies instead). Later reports confirm that Neuville's US yellow was lifted, so he will play in the final should Germany hold off Korea.

Korea had a magnificent run this far, but the magic ran out in this match. They should be fully satisfied with their progress here, as most analysts would have questioned Korea's ability to earn even one win in the entire cup. A lot of credit has to go to Hiddink, their coach since he led the Netherlands in the last World Cup. Korea entered the Cup without a single win in World Cup history, and left with four, over Poland, Portugal, Italy, and a penalty kick win over Spain.

Germany certainly played better than they did against the US, and deserved the victory today.

[RedSoxFan]

Brazil 1 Turkey 0

Turkey has the first good chance, in the 9th minute. Emre takes a free kick outside the box on the right side. His cross skims just above his targets and forces a punch save by Marcos.

Turkey has another great chance in the 20th minute. Fatih served the ball into the box 12 yards out to Alpay, who strikes it well with his head to the side of the goal, but somehow Marcos gets there with a dive.

Just one minute later, it is Brazil with a good chance. Cafu runs up on the right side from defense and collects a pass from Ronaldo. He has a pretty good look and takes the shot rather than pass it to one of a couple well-positioned teammates, but his shot just barely does not make it under the keeper's right hand.

Another great opportunity for Brazil in the 23rd minute. Rivaldo takes a swerving, bouncing shot from 20 yards out, and the best Rustu can do is to knock the ball down. Unfortunately, Ronaldo was right there, but Ronaldo's off balance attempt was saved. Rivaldo takes a surprise shot from the top of the box in traffic in the 34th minute, but it was very well placed and it takes a diving save by Rustu to keep the ball out of the net. Rivaldo with another near score in the 36th minute. A Brazilian counterattack sees Rivaldo open from 20 yards and his shot goes inches wide.

Another opportunity for Brazil just inside stoppage time. Roberto Carlos took a shot from the left front corner of the box. Rustu makes a diving save but gives up the rebound. He saw the ball heading towards Edilson's foot, so Rustu dove again to push the ball away, and a Turkish defender manages to clear it. The first 20 minutes of this half were pretty even, but Brazil has been dominating the scoring chances ever since.

Brazil finally scores on an amazing goal by Ronaldo, who now leads the race for the golden boot award. Ronaldo collected a pass a few yards outside the box, and he was surrounded by Turkish defenders, but they let him dribble into the box. They leave Ronaldo a small opening for a shot on goal some 12 yards out, and Ronaldo strikes it low to the opposite side of the goal. Rustu dives and gets his hand on it, but there is just enough pace on the ball to jump over the hand, and the ball rolls in one inch inside the post.

Brazil had a golden opportunity to score again in the 58th minute. A magnificent pass reaches Edilson in the box, but the first touch is subpar and a defender reaches the scene to disrupt Edilson's shot which goes a few feet wide. Then, four minutes later, Kleberson bungles a great opportunity: Ronaldo dribbled in and passed him the ball at close range, but Kleberson hit the shot right to the keeper.

Turkey is getting some good pressure late in the game. In the 81st minute, Sukur, a few yards from goal, side volleys it to the right side of goal but Marcos makes a diving save. A couple minutes earlier, Ilhan took a shot that initially looked like a cross but swerved at goal and forces Marcos to tip it over the crossbar as he recovered.

The last several minutes, however, were dominated by Brazil and Turkey didn't have any more chances.

Brazil will advance to its third straight World Cup Final to play Germany on Sunday. Especially now that Germany won't have Ballack for the final, it looks like Brazil will win it.

An interesting matchup then for the 3rd place game: Turkey, who will end the Cup without playing a single European team, will face South Korea, who will have faced only European teams other than its first phase matchup against the United States.

[Shrek]

Especially now that Germany won't have Ballack for the final
I couldn't believe my eyes...a German went into the book for diving? Nah, couldn't be. The Koreans were known as the "Red Devils" the Germans ought to be called "fish out of water" for the way they flop around. That said, Kahn has been absolutely incredible - one goal allowed in six games!

[Traina]

I thought that the Brazil/Turkey game was pretty exciting. Finally we got to see some interesting play.

[Traina]

Oh yeah, and it will supposedly be the first time Brazil will be playing Germany in the World Cup.

[Guerilla poster]

Ballack wasn't called for a dive was he. I think it was Neville who got the yellow for diving?

[Shrek]

GP, you are correct. Ballack got his card before he scored. I think it befuddled me so much that one of them was finally called for diving.

[VP]

http://worldcup.espnsoccernet.com/story?id=219492&lang=us

This is bogus. Reyna on the all-tournament team as the only American. Apparently McBride, Donovan, and Friedel were also considered. I can see Friedel not making it even though he was stellar; they took 2 keepers (Kahn-Ger and Rustu-Tur) who were both phenomenal as well. However, Donovan, McBride, O'Brien, and Sanneh all deserved recognition over Reyna. Must be purely on reputation, such as it is.