PM's

[Rocky]

This thread is to discuss PM's that you might have gotten or received while alive in the EC game.

Do not post the PM unless the sender has given you permission to share it (unlikely, but I have a few). Otherwise, please just describe the PM's message.

[Rocky]

I traded a fair number of PM's with the following players:

Gandalf
4sigma
J.T.
RPO

I exchanged a couple of PM's with:
Leela
snafu
Tim><
Dave Barry

I'll provide summaries of the contents of PM's from each of these players, in later posts. It's time to head home.

[Rocky]

Here's a PM from Snafu earlier this week.

Rocky,

This is not the first typo that I have noted by the EC. I used the previous typo to come up with a list of about 5 players. I am out on business this week but when I get back I will do some research on this latest typo.

You just move way away from the neutral portion of my list. By pointing out the typo you are either non-EC or you are a very clever EC trying to frame someone. I'm inclined to go with the non-EC due to some of your earlier posts.

Do me a favor and do NOT draw any more attention to the EC typos. If the EC gets to you before I have time to PM you further then you should use this PM (with my full permission to quote and disclose within the ghost forum) as evidence to haunt me.

I'll PM you more details when I get a chance.

followed soon after by:

Hopefully 4Sigma forwarded you some information. If not it is on its way. The previous typo points very strongly to a single individual. I chose to share the information with 4Sigma and now you. We are watching that individual to see if they might lead us to other EC. When I get a chance I will see of the whose/who's typo also points to that same individual. If it does, then maybe you, 4Sigma, and me can put some votes on them and see who comes to their rescue. Until then I would appreciate it if you refrain from further comments on the typos.

The next day, 4sigma forwarded the following 2 PM's that snafu had sent to him.
Rocky,

snafu asked that I forward this to you. He sent me this by PM around midday on Dec 2. This is part 1 of 2.I am fairly sure that All Clear is EC.

Here is my circumstantial evidence toward motive...

A little All Clear hostility toward me (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=613723&highlight=snafu#613723)
and some more (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=783948&highlight=snafu#783948)
And voting for me (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=785947&highlight=snafu#785947)

Then the EC tries to frame me (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=796572&highlight=#796572)

Keep in mind that none of this caught my eye on first glance and it was only after some other evidence came to light that I even considered the above. I'll send another email with my evidence toward guilt. Consider the above as going solely toward motive.

Part 2 of 2.Here is the real evidence toward guilt. Bear in mind that the motive evidence came to light only after the following so there was no bias involved in the research of the following.

I notices the following highlighted typo in the frame-snafu post from the EC (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=796572&highlight=its#796572)

I believe this is not something done on purpose toward misleading the players but rather some people use its/it's correctly and some don't. So I went looking for who misuses its/it's and here is what I found...

First for each remaining player I pulled all posts, first 1000 characters. I searched through the first three pages of posts for "its" and tagged any user with one or more misuses of "its".

This identified four posters that had misused "its" in the last 75 posts. I then went back through those posters and went through their last 150 or so posts searching for any usage of "its" or "it's". Here are my results...

All Clear - habitually and consistently misuses its for it's
Incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=689174&highlight=its#689174)
Incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=613269&highlight=its#613269)
Incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=602975&highlight=its#602975)
Incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=578279&highlight=its#578279)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=556890&highlight=its#556890)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=556890&highlight=its#556890)
No instances of All Clear - correct its or correct it's

the yellow dart - has misused its but seems to have corrected misusage
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=769763&highlight=it's#769763)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=769598&highlight=it's#769598)
incorrect it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=755099&highlight=it's#755099)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=733828&highlight=it's#733828)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=562602&highlight=it's#562602)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=523385&highlight=it's#523385)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=479642&highlight=it's#479642)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=356100&highlight=its#356100)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=311670&highlight=its#311670)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=301376&highlight=its#301376)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=356572&highlight=it's#356572)

asynchronous - some misuse but majority of uses are correct
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=796438&highlight=it's#796438)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=645360&highlight=its#645360)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=761530&highlight=it's#761530)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=584604&highlight=its#584604)
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=559809&highlight=its#559809)
correct its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=550633&highlight=its#550633)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=584567&highlight=it's#584567)

macavity - single misuse in tandem with multiple correct usages indicates singleton most likely typo
incorrect its (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=797258&highlight=its#797258)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=797363&highlight=it's#797363)
correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=795643&highlight=it's#795643)
multiple correct it's (http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=795030&highlight=it's#795030)

[Kenshiro]

I'm disappointed if you only wasted 5 minutes. I was hoping to make the EC waste far more than that. I've got several instances of "Kenshrio" and "Gandlaf" as well as Vote: Gandalf and Vote: Kenshiro and some just plain Gandalf and Kenshiro in there for good measure.

It looks like the EC may well take out you or Gandalf next. This is not particularly a pleasant topic to discuss -- it is something like funeral preparations. But we may have a limited window left to talk to either yourself or Gandalf. And this is likewise a window to pass on some information that can reach the ghosts, hopefully without the EC knowing about it.

1) If you're interested, I've built a spreadsheet showing the odds of the students vs. EC winning, allowing you to model whether or not the ghosts pass. I show that the ghosts should pass at their upcoming opportunity and then should haunt every round thereafter to give us the best chance of defeating the EC. I could send you a copy, if you're willing to give me an E-mail address I could send it to. If not, that's fine.

2) EK has ruled that ghosts may use intensity of haunting with different font sizes. There is thus an opportunity for ghosts who are not haunting the majority target to convey information about other players. Of course, these haunts can be read by everyone. But one thing we could do is to agree something like size=18 is neutral, with larger sizes suggesting an opinion of guilt and smaller sizes suggesting an opinion of innocence. EC will probably expect all sizes >12 to indicate guilt, but it is more likely I think that ghosts will have indications of who is innocent. So this could be conveyed in haunts of size 13-17 by various ghosts, and the EC would be none the wiser.

Let me know if you're game. As far as I can tell, this is completely within EK's rules and intent.

Even if you're not game, I would hope that you would pass this information on to other ghosts. If a ghost is using this interpretation, they can signal this by making their first haunting in post size 17. I will then share this information with a couple of other players that I trust, probably Gandalf and one other for starters, in the hopes that we can use this information without EC being aware of it.

I've had a similar discussion with Gandalf. Hope that you aren't the next to go, but I think we do need to take advantage of the opportunity that it presents.

[Kenshiro]

I had some pms from Gandalf confirming that 4sigma sent him the same message and discussing some related strategy.

Also another from 4sigma that said he thought Gandalf and I were innocent because of the game. I shared that opinion until Aces turned out to be EC.

[Rocky]

I'm disappointed if you only wasted 5 minutes. :blah:

That's interesting.

4sigma and I traded PM's throughout the early part of the game discussing strategy. He never mentioned the possibility of coding, so maybe he just thought that I was likely EC. But, if that's the case, why did he divert attention from me when I was up for lynching?

He offered the to send his model to me, but never did when I gave him an e-mail address.

Kenshiro, did you get the model? If you did, I'd like to see it and see if he's intentionally programmed some "flaws" that would benefit the EC. Not likely, but it's another thing to consider.

[Kenshiro]

Kenshiro, did you get the model? If you did, I'd like to see it and see if he's intentionally programmed some "flaws" that would benefit the EC. Not likely, but it's another thing to consider.

I never asked for it. I assumed I could make my own model with only a little effort. He's certainly never suggested anything that benefits the EC significantly.

[Rocky]

He's certainly never suggested anything that benefits the EC significantly.

I basically agree with you on that.

4sigma just seems suspicious to me and very dangerous if he is EC. His request, in the PM to you, to indicate innocence would give him influence over the game. This is because he could pick and choose who he and Gandalf let know what the ghosts are communicating. This is very dangerous if he is EC (I'm obviously not close to being convinced that he is).

[Kenshiro]

I basically agree with you on that.

4sigma just seems suspicious to me and very dangerous if he is EC. His request, in the PM to you, to indicate innocence would give him influence over the game. This is because he could pick and choose who he and Gandalf let know what the ghosts are communicating. This is very dangerous if he is EC (I'm obviously not close to being convinced that he is).

He also suggested I pm anyone I thought innocent, which would partially negate that advantage.

I think the greater problem would be having the other innocent students potentially misunderstand the haunts as endorsements of guilt.

[Rocky]

He also suggested I pm anyone I thought innocent, which would partially negate that advantage.

Did you?

I think the greater problem would be having the other innocent students potentially misunderstand the haunts as endorsements of guilt.

That all goes to controlling the game.

[Jables]

Well, just about all of the PM's I received were in the time frame of when I was identified as the first haunt victim and when I received my final haunt vote... they generally seem to have been intended to be share with the GF

Fri Dec 17, 2004 15:39:35

It appears that the ghosts are preparing to haunt you. I did ask them earlier to allow some time so that PMs could be sent to/from whoever they chose to haunt.

I have some suspicions of who are EC. I confess that you're slightly above average on my list for your avatar research, but it's really not much to go on. If you're about to be haunted, I hope you are EC.

But in case you're not, I'd like to convey to you (and the ghosts) my thoughts about who might or might not be EC.

I have a couple of people on my radar due to EC's grammar problems. This is indicative of either someone who REALLY has trouble with grammar, or someone who is trying to appear that way to deflect suspicion from themselves. I think it's no secret that the "deflect suspicion" argument points to Dave Barry.

There are a couple of people that I think the "real grammar problem" may point to. I sent Rocky a PM about this before his death and he should hopefully have posted about this on the ghost forum. There is one player who has consistently shown a grammar problem similar to EC's, and I think that this may be a fruitful person to test at some point soon.

There is another living student who ran most of the analysis on this who I will not name, but Rocky will know the name of. I note that this student tends to make quite a few spelling and grammar errors. I consider it very mildly odd that he would be the one to spot EC's grammar errors and run the analysis on it, though he is known as something of an analyst from last game. I'm not naming him at the moment in case you're EC, but when you get up to the ghost forum, I expect that Rocky's data will complete the picture for you.

You've probably noticed that I'm defending Gandalf a bit. I tend to not think he's EC, though he has moved up my list for his key Dave Barry vote. But I think it is really bizarre that he would name himself in a Steel Cage match. Maybe I am underestimating him, or mayhe he and Tim>< are both EC :tfh:

I have a couple of other people who I think are innocent. If you turn out not to be EC, I will make a post containing the :horse: emoticon. That post will also contain some :) emoticons. Players who are named just before a :) emoticon are those who I think are not EC.

[Jables]

At the time, 4sigma wasn't sure if the codes I PMed to everyone were also known by Gandalf/RPO, and he devised a code using the font sizes of haunts to answer him if I got haunted to death before I could respond to his PM. In the end I was able to clear things up with him, that message to me about haunting font sizes is moot.

Captain Nemo also has PMed me a list of codes (different from what Gandalf/RPO devised), that he intended to use in the event that I didn't follow through with their system, but he now doesn't plan to use those and will stick to the standard code.

[Rocky]

:blah: :blah: :blah:

4sigma wants a super-secret decoder ring for Christmas. :D

[Jables]

I don't know if it will end up meaning anything, but All Clear was the only person who actively PMed me looking for their code sets:

Sun Dec 19, 2004 14:47:36

I would like to participate in sending you information on my thoughts on the guilty parties. Please send me a pm in which you tell me the code that is assigned to me. Thanks so much.

[J.T.]

Rocky and I exchanged some PM's, but oh, wait, we are both dead, so I'm not sure I can help out here....

Let's see. I exchanged some with RPO, which I didn't get permission to post, but I will give a synopsis if needed.

Gandalf and I also traded PM's quite frequently, many from the very beginning of the game (mostly just are you EC?).

[Rocky]

Rocky and I exchanged some PM's, but oh, wait, we are both dead, so I'm not sure I can help out here....
:D

Let's see. I exchanged some with RPO, which I didn't get permission to post, but I will give a synopsis if needed.
Probably not yet. There is likely to come a point where we have to consider RPO, since I don't expect the EC to kill him. If he's an innocent student, he's exactly the kind of player that the EC should want around as the game goes on.

Gandalf and I also traded PM's quite frequently, many from the very beginning of the game (mostly just are you EC?).
Were there any where he discussed specific ways that he would communicate with only you (or the ghost forum)? It may not be important, but I wonder if that was the nature of any of the PM's.

[J.T.]

Gandalf and I also traded PM's quite frequently, many from the very beginning of the game (mostly just are you EC?).
Were there any where he discussed specific ways that he would communicate with only you (or the ghost forum)? It may not be important, but I wonder if that was the nature of any of the PM's.

Nope....he did mention a code he shared with Kenshiro and wondered if the code had been shared to everyone. Otherwise, I have no way of communicating with Gandalf.

We mainly discussed the last vote of Aces/Dave. Had lots of discussions on who was changing their votes, etc. (this was all before Aces was lynched).

[Jables]

I just sent the following PM to EK, awaiting his response/clarification...

Hi EK,

RPO made a public post about the living sending their coded messages to us ghosts, either publicly or privately, but they aren't allowed to PM ghosts, right? I assume that he means either come out and give your feedback without the codes, or "privately" communicate with us via the code... but I don't want people to get confused and think that RPO meant to PM us their coded messages...I'd ask you this in the main thread, but as far as I know, I'm only allowed to haunt there. You might want to post something to clear this up so it doesn't become an issue...

Ass. King Jables

Reminder for everybody -- it's the ghost's turn to haunt.
Please give them for feedback, either publicly (if you want everybody to know) or privately (if you don't want the EC to know).

Official Rules

Ghosts should not PM the remaining students once notified of their death and should post only their death scene (with an indication on whether they are a student, an EC with more EC remaining, or the last EC) and haunting votes. Ghosts should not seek to discuss further with living students. Further, students should not PM ghosts.

[Jables]

Well, just about all of the PM's I received were in the time frame of when I was identified as the first haunt victim and when I received my final haunt vote... they generally seem to have been intended to be share with the GF

Fri Dec 17, 2004 15:39:35

It appears that the ghosts are preparing to haunt you. I did ask them earlier to allow some time so that PMs could be sent to/from whoever they chose to haunt.

I have some suspicions of who are EC. I confess that you're slightly above average on my list for your avatar research, but it's really not much to go on. If you're about to be haunted, I hope you are EC.

But in case you're not, I'd like to convey to you (and the ghosts) my thoughts about who might or might not be EC.

I have a couple of people on my radar due to EC's grammar problems. This is indicative of either someone who REALLY has trouble with grammar, or someone who is trying to appear that way to deflect suspicion from themselves. I think it's no secret that the "deflect suspicion" argument points to Dave Barry.

There are a couple of people that I think the "real grammar problem" may point to. I sent Rocky a PM about this before his death and he should hopefully have posted about this on the ghost forum. There is one player who has consistently shown a grammar problem similar to EC's, and I think that this may be a fruitful person to test at some point soon.

There is another living student who ran most of the analysis on this who I will not name, but Rocky will know the name of. I note that this student tends to make quite a few spelling and grammar errors. I consider it very mildly odd that he would be the one to spot EC's grammar errors and run the analysis on it, though he is known as something of an analyst from last game. I'm not naming him at the moment in case you're EC, but when you get up to the ghost forum, I expect that Rocky's data will complete the picture for you.

You've probably noticed that I'm defending Gandalf a bit. I tend to not think he's EC, though he has moved up my list for his key Dave Barry vote. But I think it is really bizarre that he would name himself in a Steel Cage match. Maybe I am underestimating him, or mayhe he and Tim>< are both EC :tfh:

I have a couple of other people who I think are innocent. If you turn out not to be EC, I will make a post containing the :horse: emoticon. That post will also contain some :) emoticons. Players who are named just before a :) emoticon are those who I think are not EC.

Other thoughts before I go on vacation:

thing: Sorry to see that you're EC's victim this round. :cry: May your hauntings be accurate.

I would like to reiterate what snafu said earlier -- that it is not a good idea for us to be publicly discussing who we think is innocent.

It is quite possible that EC has abandoned their miserable games :shake: in order to target those who they think are most unlikely to be lynched or haunted. Rolie Polie Olie mentioned this a few posts back, and he may actually be onto something of substance here. :)

If you think someone is innocent, you may not be doing them a favor by saying so publicly at this point. You may just be moving them up EC's target list. Please pass your opinions of innocence on to the ghosts.

I'm glad that Butters is done :horse: for J.T. Next thing you know, Travis may stop crusading to lynch Gandalf. :)

Well, I know this means he thinks Gandalf is innocent... not sure if that applies to RPO and Travis too...

[Rocky]

I take his post as saying RPO and Gandalf are likely innocent. We know that he's right about at least one of those two :D . I tend to think that RPO is innocent too...

[Gandalf]

Kenshiro, did you get the model? If you did, I'd like to see it and see if he's intentionally programmed some "flaws" that would benefit the EC. Not likely, but it's another thing to consider.

I never asked for it. I assumed I could make my own model with only a little effort. He's certainly never suggested anything that benefits the EC significantly.
You're asking about the 4Sigma model. I got it. I don't think it is suspicious, but I disagreed with some of the conclusions. It tells you the odds and best strategy for any beginning number of EC (2,3,4 or 5 only, I think) on the assumption that you know how many EC there are. The strategy can be very wrong, especially in the end position, if you misguess how many EC there are. Your early strategy is based on the assumption you will get the ending count right. (As you might. If near the end of the game we've killed only 1 EC, I'll be willing to bet there are 2 left (or even 3, but if 3 it's likely hopeless). If we reach the point that we've killed 4 and there are EC left, I'll bet it's only one. But if we've killed 2, I think it's a blind guess whether there are 1 or 2 left.

While I considered that a serious practical flaw, I didn't consider it suspicious. Also, this model came from the previous game, where it was far more likely that in the end position we would have known the number of EC. (If we killed an EC early then, there was almost certainly an activated sleeper. If we killed two EC, we were positive there was only one left. Only in the case where will killed the first EC moderately late would it have been very uncertain whether there is a sleeper.)

[Rocky]

Kenshiro, did you get the model? If you did, I'd like to see it and see if he's intentionally programmed some "flaws" that would benefit the EC. Not likely, but it's another thing to consider.

I never asked for it. I assumed I could make my own model with only a little effort. He's certainly never suggested anything that benefits the EC significantly.
You're asking about the 4Sigma model.

Yes. I was asking because 4sigma had told me early in the game that he would e-mail it to me for comments. He never did send it, so I was curious to see it.

[Macroman]

This feature seems underutilized. I'm not a big user of PMs as players who have played with me in past games will probably know. I received the following PMs during the game.

-------------------------------------------------------

urysohn- Friday- Suggested that the codes we have are sufficient. He said "affirmatively" that he had no new information to pass to the ghosts.

He also commented on how we are getting smoked this game. He said that I was his top choice for EC, which he said meant that I was "1% more likely than anyone else to be EC".

So if he's being honest he's admitting to being basically clueless about who to target.

----------------------------------------------------------

Snafu- an exchange ending 1-18-2005 Snafu's response to my vote for him or her. Snafu pointed out that he'd broken the tie between Aces and DB and asked me not to share that information in the public thread for fear of the EC would target him.

- I replied by PM essentially as I posted in the public thread.
- Snafu concluded the discussion saying that he was playing to stay alive because it gives him a better shot at the stapler. I believe that Snafu is only sharing this information by PM to prolong it's effectiveness.

my comments: Snafu has been very sucessful in squelching public discussion about himself, a fact which makes him a particularily dangerous endgame player.

-------------------------------------------------------------

urysohn-1-17-05 urysohn's broadcast message to everyone suggesting that they vote Travis.

-------------------------------------------------

I also exchanged a few PMs with Gandalf on the secret ballot idea while we were both alive. We certainly don't need that idea now when discussion is nearly absent.

---------------------------------
overall comments:
I don't like the way urysohn and Snafu have been controlling discussion and voting. I suggest that this may be part of the reason we haven't had more success. I also think a lot of the participants in the game are bored which slows the discussion. Look at the sizes of the thread and ghost forum compared with previous iterations.

[Gandalf]

Consider the source!
I have a few messages I was asked to pass along to the ghosts. I will not be making any commentary on the posts and will leave it up to you to decide whether I am fabricating items, withholding items, changing items, or whether I am passing them on because I feel they are misleading or have no strategic value.

I appreciate your candor and analysis. I envision that this code might be used in a less obvious context, but I was too lazy with my example. My concern is to be able to communicate conditional statements to the ghosts without live students being aware. Especially statements linking the guilt/innocence of two students. This would have been useful during the Dave Barry/Aces episode.

Asynch-
I'll pass it on. But I'm not sure why you really need me. The only thing you're really keeping secret is that you would now have the ability to submit a coded message of this type. And even that would be a blown secret pretty quick. Posting "A,B, then C" would make it pretty clear what you were trying to say. You could leave out the "then" and post this message publicly. That would allow everyone to use the code, if they so chose (label ALL your coded messages as Gandalf3 to avoid confusion). And you could muddy the waters by using ghosts other than Macroman as blanks.
e.g.
111, 222, 333 ==> If 222 then 333
444, 222, 555 ==> 222, but format appears the same

where 111=Macroman, 444/555=other ghost.

I'm really hoping this drawn out haunting means they don't actually want to take me so that you'll need to find another route. If they do stay the course, then I can pass on the message as you ask.

Urysohn -

Under the assumption that you are innocent, I would like to make one modification to the Gandalf Code 2 that I am using. Upon your haunting, if you are vindicated, please share this with Gandalf, and any other ghost privy to Gandalf's codes:

If I include a code for Macroman, I really mean "IF".

i.e. if I were to post "111, 222 then 333", where 111=Macroman, 222=4sigma, and 333=Tim><, what I really mean is "IF 4sigma, then Tim><"

I could see myself using this in a variety of formats or contexts, and I think it will make it easier to communicate "linked suspicions" with the ghosts which could be very useful in the endgame.

I have not discussed/shared this idea with any other student (alliance or not) at this point. However, in the event that I do share, I will post a code in the form [Asynchronous][Asynchronous][student with code], which will mean that future postings from that student will use the same Macroman=IF substitution.
Obviously, even if this message is 100% true, Asynch will never use the code, not having any idea what we were told.

[Gandalf]

Consider the source! Sent to us after urysohn was confirmed as EC, ostensibly sent to a presumably innocent urysohn for delivery to us.
Urysohn,

I'm going to take a small chance here as I don't think you are EC. If you are EC then I am perhaps giving a little away.

I think you need to seriously consider the case for EC within the rebellion. You should discuss this with the fellow rebellion ghosts once you reach the other side.

As evidence of my innocence, note that I cast a deciding vote for Aces219 instead of Dave Barry. I broke the tie between the two. I did this dispite the rebellion preference for DB. I did this not because I thought aces219 was guilty but because I was very convinced that DB was innocent.

I think 4Sigma and >tim< are also most likely innocent based on his voting in the round aces219 was lynched.

I find Butters suspicious due to his fixation on J.T. in the early rounds. What better way to avoid a voting pattern than to fixate on someone not likely to get lynched. Mulan used this last game and fixated on Will Durant.

I have to go now as my ride is here. Ask the ghosts for more time and I'll PM more info. In short I think you should take a hard look at asych and captain nemo and how they voted in the round that aces was lynched.
(a tiny bit of private info was deleted; not important)

[Gandalf]

Consider the source! Sent to us after urysohn was confirmed as EC, ostensibly sent to a presumably innocent urysohn for delivery to us.
A couple real quick comments. I have meetings quickly coming up; hopefully I have time to reply later, though at the ghosts' current pace I shouldn't be too worried about time as a factor :roll:

Current breakdown (before this haunt) is 5 alliance, 3 non-alliance. That is what spurred my comment about not preempting the ghosts. We DO have the power; I just do not think it wise to use it.

The alliance was formed before EC were selected, including the addition of me and whoever the 7th person was (can't remember who was in the original 5 and who was in the other 2). I would never have agreed to join an alliance that was formed after the start of the game. The only reason it worked is that everybody was only randomly likely to be EC.

Hopefully time for more later. Heck, hopefully the ghosts decided to move on. They may have just been trying to scare me (it's also possible the Rocky thing no longer applies in the endgame). I don't think they like me very much :lol:

Sorry for the break. We are a one car family right now and my wife arrived early to pick me up.

Anyway, if you look at asynchronous' voting pattern. In round 3, asynch voted for aces219 but noone else joined and then asynch joined the bandwagon for Last Train to Skaville. In the next round, there was a bandwagon for aces219 and asynch didn't join.

Captain Nemo has made nothing but safe votes. Waiting until after a bandwagon has already formed and then joining.

I'm not sure what the order was on forming the rebellion. Who started it? Who invited whom? Was it started before the assignment of EC? If I were EC, the first thing I would do would be to start an alliance. I would suggest consulting with the rebellion ghosts and taking a hard look at the alliance with specific attention to Asynchronous and Captain Nemo. 4Sigma and myself both cast pretty decisive votes for aces219 so I think that should put us in the most likely innocent basket.

We are down to 8 players, 4 rebellion and 4 regular. There are most likely 2 remaining EC. I would bet that one of the EC is either asynch or Captain Nemo.

OK, it really helps that the rebellion was formed prior to EC selection. I couldn't remember and could not get the timeline straight from my PMs.

I still think we need to take a hard look at the rebellion members. Sort of a rebellion ghost forum. We know that you, Gandalf, and Leela are innocent. So you three would be the best ones to provide a reality check on the rest of the rebellion.

Also, I would stand by my assertion that the voting records of >tim<, 4Sigma, and myself make the three of us most likely to be innocent.
(the private info has been deleted here, too, this time where urysohn told snafu that he thought it was private info. Urysohn, I believe, knew that I knew the info anyway.)

[Gandalf]

The snafu messages sound a lot like snafu. That doesn't mean they are unaltered, and obviously urysohn for whatever reason chose to give them to us. I tend to think it suggests snafu believed urysohn innocent, and therefore snafu is (the EC knew ury wasn't). Would they have thought to cook up a message from snafu at all if he were EC? OTOH, urysohn is unlikely to have given it to us at all if he expected us to find it helpful.

[Rocky]

The snafu messages sound a lot like snafu. That doesn't mean they are unaltered, and obviously urysohn for whatever reason chose to give them to us. I tend to think it suggests snafu believed urysohn innocent, and therefore snafu is (the EC knew ury wasn't). Would they have thought to cook up a message from snafu at all if he were EC? OTOH, urysohn is unlikely to have given it to us at all if he expected us to find it helpful.

Given Ury's propensity to think ahead and "frame" situations, I'm choosing to not give them any credence right now.