NYC Beanball-o-rama!

[Pseudolus]

Roger Clemens has, in the past, already hit Mike Piazza in the head with a pitch and narrowly missed him with a chunk of broken bat. When the two of them match up this weekend at Shea Stadium, what will be next?

[Shrek]

Clemens will step into the box in the first, as part of a Mets plot. Strike one, strike two, ball - outside. Fastball in the mush. Carried off before he can pitch to Piazza.

[Patience]

The big question is whether Estes throws at Clemens

Strangly there are few Mets who were around for those incidents.

I would pitch inside to Clemens, put him on the dirt, but not put him on base.

If he gets on base a few pickoff throws with hard tags.

[vito]

This should remind us why the DH rule is so hideous. In most games, Clemons can throw at someone without fear of retribution. During the last strike, Clemons made a vague threat about drilling any player that crossed the picket line. That's real brave when you don't have to step into the batter's box.

Remember when you were in little league and the coach said to not step in the bucket? Against the Mets, Roger's left foot will be half way to the 3rd base dugout.

[Drzy]

The last time Clemens faced Piazza (after the ball incident or the bat incident, I forget which) was horrible. Clemens through every ball outside or on the outer half of the plate, I guess not wanting to start a huge brawl by accidentally hitting Piazza. I'm near 100% sure he won't throw at him intentionally, but I hope he has the guts to pitch him inside this time.

[Pseudolus]

I've heard before the argument that AL pitchers would be less likely to throw at batters if they had to bat. I was skeptical, so I just went and ran some numbers. (Mmmm.... lahman database....)

I looked at rates of HBP per game binned up by year and by league in the years 1901-2001. If you click here (http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/pseudolus2001/vwp2?.tok=bcyRg1PBJxS38URE&.dir=/Yahoo!+Photo+Album&.dnm=hbp.gif&.src=ph) (and if I've done this correctly) you should be able to see the results.

In the pre-DH era (1901-1972), the AL had the higher rate in 42 out of 72 years (58%). Since the DH was instituted in the AL, that league has been higher all 29 years. My skepticism is defeated - it looks like the DH -> more HBP idea is true after all.

In case the picture doesn't work out, I'll describe the overall shape of the curve. The NL looks like the leftmost 7/8ths of a capital "W": ~.04 in 1901, dropping to ~.01 in 1940, a small rise up to ~.017 in the late 60s, back down to ~.01 in 1980, and a strong, steady increase to ~.025 in 2001. The AL is similar, except that from the early 70s on it's ~.006 HBP/G higher than the NL.

[Anonymous]

Am I reading that wrong ? .04 hit batters per game ? that's awfully low so I'm guessing I have it wrong ... HB/PA maybe ?

If it's per plate appearance, that would wipe out the theory that there are more AB's per game in the AL with the slightly higher scoring, hence more opportunities to be hit.

[Mr. Grim]

What is Clemens problem with Piazza? Did Piazza make a pass at him or something?

[Pseudolus]

Hold on -- I did add up "games", but I did it on a table that counts the games played by each player, which is at least 9* as many as team games played. Thanks for pointing that out... I'll re-do as per AB...

[Pseudolus]

Short answer: when I do it correctly, by AB, the DH effect pretty much disappears. The AL was higher from the late 60s to the early 90s, but the two leagues have been neck-and-neck since then. The "difference" I was seeing must have been due to more "player games" per "AB" in the NL (because of pinch hitting for the pitcher, double switches, etc.) My skepticism is back.

I'll post a revised picture.

[Tony the Tiger]

Clemens will hit a Met before he gets up to bat himself. The umpires will then issue a warning that the next pitcher to throw at a batter will be ejected. The Mets pitchers will not throw at Clemens and risk being ejected.

Thus Clemens will get the free shot at the Mets with no retaliation. And we will continue to hear the Mets fans whine about Clemens, but they won't be able to say he is afraid to bat anymore.

[Pseudolus]

Corrected graph image. (http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/pseudolus2001/vwp2?.tok=bc2_g1PBppAbzczU&.dir=/Yahoo!+Photo+Album&.dnm=hbp2.gif&.src=ph)

This time, the points of the "W" (on a per-AB basis) are: ~.010 (1901), ~.004 (1940), ~.007 (1963), ~.005 (1980), and .011 (2000). So HBP rates are now as high as they've ever been in the modern era.

[Patience]

What is Clemens problem with Piazza? Did Piazza make a pass at him or something?

Short answer is Piazza did great against him in their limited encounters, including a grand slam

[Pseudolus]

Joe Morgan says: Drill the fargin' bastage! (http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/morgan_joe/1394555.html)

(OK, that's a paraphrase)

[vito]

TTT,

After a certain point, I have to disagree with your scenario. If Clemons hits someone, the Ump will issue the warning, as you have said. However, ejection from the game will not be enough to keep the Mets from retaliating. I look at the situation from a season-long persective. What would be worse, an ejection from one game, or being known for the rest of the season as a bunch of wimps? Also, the Mets are struggling right now. Maybe an all-out brawl could be used as a rallying point to turn their season around.

[Tony the Tiger]

being known for the rest of the season as a bunch of wimps?

They've looked like wimps for 2 years now. So what if they continue that stretch.

[Patience]

Yeah, the Mets should have thrown at him while he was sitting in the dug out. He never would have expected that

[Budder]

The Mets NEED to throw at him regardless of what else will happen in the game. Even if the Mets roster is not the same as it was when this whole thing started, it IS a matter of not looking like a bunch of Yellow Bellies.
I do like TTTs' theory and would not really be surprised if that is what happens. Although, I agree with Vito. They need to stand up, and this could also be the spark that the Mets need.

[Pseudolus]

I think Estes must have "missed" him on purpose. He seemed to be throwing at Clemens's rear end, which has swelled to nearly Mo-Vaughanian proportions. A control pitcher like Estes can't miss a taget of that size by mistake.

Anyway, the Mets beat up on Clemens the old fashioned way, by knocking him out of the game (injury, schminjury - if Roger hadn't been getting his head handed him, his foot booboo wouldn't have taken him out). Homers by Piazza and Estes, and an 8-0 win for the Metropolitans.

[moj]

I think Estes must have "missed" him on purpose.

That would explain it. How on earth do you miss Clemens. They should have thrown at hime several times.

[Tony the Tiger]

ejection from the game will not be enough to keep the Mets from retaliating. I look at the situation from a season-long persective. What would be worse, an ejection from one game, or being known for the rest of the season as a bunch of wimps?

Guess they chose to look like wimps

[Anonymous]

I didn't notice Roger retaliating either ... good thing, he might have avoided the embarrassment of serving a couple up.

[Patience]

His biggest embarrasment was not moving off the mound on Estes bunt, neither going for the ball or covering home. Allowing Rey to score.

[ACCtuary]

I think it is unfortunate that the Mets felt they had to follow one bad deed with another. I know there is bad blood between Yankee Fans and Met Fans, but I would prefer not to see our national pastime look like an English soccer brawl.

Yes, I know games should generate excitement, but if I wanted that kind of excitement, I'd just watch the WWF.

[Pseudolus]

He didn't even hit the guy! He "brushed him forward" by throwing the ball behind Rogers capacious rear end. I think Estes defused the situation in a very intelligent way and deserves a lot of credit.

My newspaper told me today that the league is probably going to fine him. That's rediculous.

[Ben Kenobi]

Oops, wrong thread

[Tony the Tiger]

They should fine Estes big, not for throwing at Clemens, but for missing the target! :D

[Budder]

Sorry to drift a little, but what's with Bonds getting tough with the Devil Rays scrub? He didn't even hit him. Is he just tough at home? Or just when the pitcher is a scrawny no-name on one of the worst teams in the league? Or, just when the Giants are getting pimped by one of the worst teams in the league?

[Patience]

I believe he was fined a small sum

but Bob Watson (former Yankee GM) didn't fine Clemens who said he intended to hit Bonds & did.