Post Your Predictions for 2005

[Spectrum]

12/31/2005 S&P500, 10 Year Treasury, Inflation/CPI, and Unemployment.

Here are mine

S&P500 : +15.00%
10 Year Treasury : 4.75%
Inflation/CPI : 3.50%
Unemployment : 4.50%

Which catagory do you think actuaries would be best at predicting?

[Buck Fama]

S&P 500: 1112.62
10 YR UST Note: 3.88%
Inflation/CPI: 2.75%
Unemployment: 4.75%

A few other predictions:

1) the Japanese Nikkei will be among the best performing equity markets in the world
2) crude oil will trade back to less than $30 a barrel
3) Berkshire Hathaway buys 2 publicly held insurers, at least one of which is a reinsurer
4) junk bonds underperform almost every asset class in 2005
5) gold records the best performance of any asset class, hitting $575 an ounce
6) HMO's become the focus of NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer
7) Philadelphia wins the Super Bowl, Illinois wins the mens NCAA tournament, Tennessee wins the womens NCAA tournament, the NY Yankees win the World Series, and Pete Rose is elected to the baseball Hall of Fame.

[Wag, the Dog]

Which catagory do you think actuaries would be best at predicting?
Yesterday's weather.

[Buck Fama]

S&P 500: 1112.62
10 YR UST Note: 3.88%
Inflation/CPI: 2.75%
Unemployment: 4.75%

A few other predictions:

1) the Japanese Nikkei will be among the best performing equity markets in the world
2) crude oil will trade back to less than $30 a barrel
3) Berkshire Hathaway buys 2 publicly held insurers, at least one of which is a reinsurer
4) junk bonds underperform almost every asset class in 2005
5) gold records the best performance of any asset class, hitting $575 an ounce
6) HMO's become the focus of NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer
7) Philadelphia wins the Super Bowl, Illinois wins the mens NCAA tournament, Tennessee wins the womens NCAA tournament, the NY Yankees win the World Series, and Pete Rose is elected to the baseball Hall of Fame.

it looks like overall I didn't do so good, although the Nikkei index is up 34% YTD and gold is over $500 an ounce (it was around $420 at the time of my prediction)

[E]

S&P 500: 1112.62
10 YR UST Note: 3.88%
Inflation/CPI: 2.75%
Unemployment: 4.75%

A few other predictions:

1) the Japanese Nikkei will be among the best performing equity markets in the world
2) crude oil will trade back to less than $30 a barrel
3) Berkshire Hathaway buys 2 publicly held insurers, at least one of which is a reinsurer
4) junk bonds underperform almost every asset class in 2005
5) gold records the best performance of any asset class, hitting $575 an ounce
6) HMO's become the focus of NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer
7) Philadelphia wins the Super Bowl, Illinois wins the mens NCAA tournament, Tennessee wins the womens NCAA tournament, the NY Yankees win the World Series, and Pete Rose is elected to the baseball Hall of Fame.

In addition to these fine predictions, I would add 2 more:

1. Whatever the S&P returns, it will be doubled by China and India, collectively and

2. The SOA will redesign the exam system again.