Castle Anthrax

[E. Blackadder]

Does anyone want to do a probability assessment for the following hypotheses?

1) Coincidence; or
2: Bio-war

I make it 2% to 98%. Plus or minus 2%.

[Gomer]

If it was "bio-war", it was so hopelessly ineffective that it is almost reassuring.

If someone has access to significant quantities of the stuff, why would they target just one photo editor at a tabloid?

Keep in mind that neither of the other two "infected" workers had nearly enough in their systems to cause illness.

I think the truth will be anti-climactic. At least I hope so.

[Anonymous]

The only things keeping me from dismissing this as totally unrelated to terrorism are

1) the proximity of the infected offices to locations where the WTC terrorists were known to be operating, and

2) the reports of one of the WTC terrorists asking a farmer about crop dusting equipment (not that such equipment was used in these cases, but that it shows the terrorists were thinking about bio/chem stuff).

With those two things hanging around, I'm more than a little nervous.

[Intents]

Given all the macho talk heard, probably the truth is that some dimwit wannabe slave to the really bad guys got ticked off at somebody and sent just a little bit thinking nobody on either side would ever notice.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

On 2001-10-11 10:44, Gomer wrote:
If it was "bio-war", it was so hopelessly ineffective that it is almost reassuring.

It was also reassuring in 1993 when the first WTC bombers managed to kill only six people and blow up some cars. Or in 1994 when the Air France hijackers wanted to crash into the Eiffel Tower but didn't know how to fly a plane. It's all about continuous improvement. Still feel reassured?

[Hierophant]

Coincidence? Monkeys might flight out my a$$.

The only question is whether it was Bin Laden, or some other group taking advantage of the situation to try out their stuff.

[Anonymous]

Hiero - The problem with your second possibility is that the incubation period of Anthrax is such that the attack would have to have been made _before_ 9/11. Anyone who knew that this would be a good time to strike would have to have been in on the WTC plans.

[Gomer]

It's been determined that the crop duster threat is overblown. The mechanics of crop dusting has been shown to be unsuitable for delivering biological agents for a variety of reasons. They are designed to put agricultural chemicals on fields, not deliver fragile biological organisms whose physical properties are quite different.

Also, the incubation period of inhaled anthrax spores in variable, but generally measured in days, not weeks. So it is entirely possible that this is the work of a deranged local rather than terrorists.

I'm not saying it's not terrorist-related, just that we need to remain calm. The fate of the supermarket tabloid industry depends on it.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Gomer on 2001-10-11 12:18 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Gomer on 2001-10-11 12:21 ]</font>

[an2001on]

I don't think it's a coincidence. Also, it's a fact that one of the hijackers was gathering this info. Did he use it before his suisidal attacke on Sept.11 and we just started observing the results? Did he pass it to another "associate"?

Dusting the fields seems to be faily inefficient. What about dusting the water supply reservoirs?

I agree, however, that we need to stay calm. I am sure the Govt is working on it.

[Anonymous]

One apsect to remember is it is the number of documented cases in the last twenty something years, hence there is still the possiblity of undocumented cases. Can it just be that our expectations have changed? Can an a priori notion that we are going to see this have caused its sudden appearance?

Assuming that it is a terrorist attack, since the incubation period is longer than twenty days (time from bombing to death) one can probably exclude another group reacting after the attacks. However, it could just be a test of the possible distribution methods, if this is the case it may not even be related to the Sept. 11 attacks. This scenario again brings in the possibility of another group being responsible.

[Gomer]

The problem with cropdusters as a means of deploying biological agents is not *what* you spray, it's getting the sprayer to work with the biological agents. In addition to the monumental task of manufacturing bulk biololgical agent, you'd have to further process it into a form that is compatible with sprayers, all while maintaining it's viability. It just doesn't work.

I don't know about nerve gas, etc. That might be easier.

Of course, I'm just an actuary. What do I know.

[Gomer]

One other thing. We don't know for sure that this is the first case of repiratory anthrax in 25 years. People die all the time without benefit of toxicology reports post mortem. We could have any number of anthrax deaths each year and simply chalk them up to sepsis or pneumonia.

Let's all keep our heads screwed on.

[Edit: Credit Hopefully a Thought for the documentation error theory...]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Gomer on 2001-10-11 15:45 ]</font>

[42]

{wild conspiracy paranoia on} Some Arabs think that the 9/11 events were actually perpetrated by Israel to draw the U.S. into a holy war. I wonder if they think the same about the anthrax cases? Maybe Israel was getting impatient because the U.S. didn't strike back immediately, and they knew if it looked like there was a second attack (anthrax instead of planes) it would drive the U.S. over the edge. If this was the case, it would explain why the anthrax attack would be on such a small scale - it would be meant to scare, not to kill the masses. Of course, if that's the case, it doesn't even have to be Israel - it could be any U.S. citizen who just got tired of waiting for the war to begin. Anybody with access to anthrax, that is. {wild conspiracy paranoia off}

[Aaron Brachowitz]

{wilder conspiracy paranoia on}
Maybe the Israelis actually did do it, because they knew the Arabs would say that the Israelis did it to get the Americans to hate the Arabs.
{wilder conspiracy paranoia still on}