Reloaded: Fifth Haunt

[Mulan]

All Clear
Asynchronous
Bicycle Repairman
Butters
J.T.
Last Train to Skaville
Macroman
snafu
Travis
urysohn
Werewolf

I believe these are the players left.

Unlikely EC: snafu
But I cannot eliminate any others - how about you guys?
I know it is not currently our turn to haunt, but I thought maybe we'd begin to talk about it a little. Consider All Clear. He just seems off.
I wouldn't be surprised if BR is EC - he seems to get lucky with them killing me instead of him and he's never really gotten the votes since.

[Spidurman]

snafu is my most likely EC, has been for two rounds.

[lawfi5h]

snafu is my most likely EC, has been for two rounds.I am tempted to agree because of the way the voting went to kick out spidur.

A bandwagon formed (probably started by the EC) and then some members tried to swing it away from that, and it landed on snafu. Then it came back to spidur.

I think if we go after snafu, and he is in fact EC, it will provide a lot of info about who is EC.

[EB]

From most to least likely in my opinion

Macroman
Last Train to Skaville
Travis
Asynchronous
snafu
J.T.
All Clear
urysohn
Butters
Werewolf
Bicycle Repairman

[Spidurman]

The two key points that really raised my eyebrows:

1)How he's handled himself since I voted for him ~2 student rounds ago....he hit the ceiling and really got defensive and evasive

2)He's been spending his time tracking and plotting with no real data to go on....I wouldn't be secretly (for awhile) tracking unless I was EC.

[EB]

2)He's been spending his time tracking and plotting with no real data to go on....I wouldn't be secretly (for awhile) tracking unless I was EC.
This is not unusual for snafu.

;) I'll support his haunting though.

[Mulan]

me too.

[Leela]

The two key points that really raised my eyebrows:

1)How he's handled himself since I voted for him ~2 student rounds ago....he hit the ceiling and really got defensive and evasive

2)He's been spending his time tracking and plotting with no real data to go on....I wouldn't be secretly (for awhile) tracking unless I was EC.

Actually neither of those are unusual for snafu.

I still like Macroman. He has been very, very quiet lately.

[EB]

he hit the ceiling and really got defensive and evasive
Actually neither of those are unusual for snafu.
:rofl: True! So true! :rofl:

[Jables]

I tossed a haunt out at snafu last round, and fully support haunting him again this time

[Mulan]

Hey we gotta decide who we are going to haunt. It is almost our turn.

Should we go for snafu, BR, or Macroman?

[Spidurman]

any work for me....prefer snafu or macro to br

[Leela]

I say Macroman. The students have almost lynched snafu and BR. So, we might as well take out someone that they haven't thought of yet.

[EB]

I'd prefer Macroman but I'm up for haunting snafu.

[Leela]

I would also like to suggest that we throw our extra haunts on players who haven't been voted for yet. We need to get some pressure on some new people.

[Jables]

snafu!

[Tim><]

I am suspicious of All Clear. He seems to no longer be annoyed by me. That is very OOC.

[Asynchronous]

Hi folks - checking in to the ghost realm. I see a lot of focus on snafu and macroman. If you are focusing on one of the two for this round, my vote would be for snafu.

In the last round, we had very concentrated voting, with spidurman getting 6 votes, a big swing to snafu getting 6 votes and then the swing back to spidurman. At the end, there were very tight votes, with 7 spidurman, 4 snafu, and Travis abstaining. spidurman was vindicated, so he was a "safe" vote for the EC. If snafu is EC, there's significant information to be gained by watching which students swung over to him and which ones stayed on the safe vote.

Also, based on conversations I had with Ury right before I was executed, I'm inclined to believe that his guilt/innocence is highly correlated with snafu's.

[EB]

From most to least likely in my opinion

Macroman
Last Train to Skaville
Travis
Asynchronous
snafu
J.T.
All Clear
urysohn
Butters
Werewolf
Bicycle Repairman
:lol: urysohn listed out my top three as most likely. I wonder if he had Asynchronous at #4.

[lawfi5h]

Don't give him time to get his "worldly affairs in order".


If he is EC, he could be hoping to get a bandwagon together to save himself.

If we are gonna get him, don't wait.

[EB]

If we are gonna get him, don't wait.
Ditto.

If you believe snafu, vote Macroman; otherwise lynch him now. There is no need to delay beyond today.

[Spidurman]

Ditto.

If you believe snafu, vote Macroman; otherwise lynch him now. There is no need to delay beyond today.

mind reading alien! ;)

[EB]

It appears we will now be losing one more innocent student. This will leave us with 9 students and either 3 or 4 EC. If there are 4, we will need unanimous voting from the non-EC to take out one of the EC and the elimination of another innocent clinches the game for them. Very precarious position. Strategies welcomed.

Suppose snafu is innocent: The students can't be trusted to lynch the next student by forming a mob on their own. After snafu (or Macroman) is haunted, the remaining ghosts should haunt Macroman (or snafu) to send a clear signal to the students.

Imagine the potential doom of 9 innocent students and an innocent student throws a vote for another innocent student. EC votes. Bang. Bang. Bang. Bang. Game over. EC wins.

[Spidurman]

Suppose snafu is innocent: The students can't be trusted to lynch the next student by forming a mob on their own. After snafu (or Macroman) is haunted, the remaining ghosts should haunt Macroman (or snafu) to send a clear signal to the students.

Imagine the potential doom of 9 innocent students and an innocent student throws a vote for another innocent student. EC votes. Bang. Bang. Bang. Bang. Game over. EC wins.

Agree that Macroman pressure is good...but (theory) what if we are wrong there too....EC happily follows ghost lead. *poof*

Only one way to find out.

[EB]

So ury, why do you say there are either 3 or 4 EC? As far as the students know, couldn't there be just two? Or even one? But you do seem to have some insider knowledge...



Here's one for you:

Vote: urysohn
Not Macroman. The optional choice is now Last Train to Skaville!!! If he is an innocent student, he is giving the game away if we are wrong about snafu and he is wrong about urysohn.

[Leela]

I don't think we should haunt snafu.

I really think we need to focus on students who aren't getting votes, and who aren't likely to get lynched. The students usually vote for the same people over and over again.

[EB]

From most to least likely in my opinion

Last Train to Skaville
Macroman
Travis
snafu
J.T.
All Clear
urysohn
Butters
Werewolf
Bicycle Repairman

Last Train moves up in my opinion because he voted too early.

[EB]

We have four haunts for snafu of 12 ghosts. Seven are needed to kill.

[Leela]

In other words, we need to come to a decision before anyone else haunts.

[Leela]

especially now that RSF has made another haunt for snafu

[EB]

Has Haunted
EB - snafu
Jables - snafu
RedSoxFan -snafu
Spidurman - snafu
lawfi5h - snafu

Tim>< - Last Train

Has Not Haunted
Asynchronous
Charlie Brown
Kenshiro
Leela
Mulan
Ultimate Anyone?

[Ultimate Anyone?]

I'm haunting Last Train, only so that others still have a choice at this time. (I'm not sure when I'll be back online.)

[Asynchronous]

I am also fine with a haunting of LTtS. In fact, he was a preference of mine over snafu (though I don't regard snafu as highly innocent).

Of the 6 ghosts that havent haunted, can we count on 100% participation in short order to haunt LTtS? If not, we are "stuck" with snafu at this point.

[Spidurman]

I am also fine with a haunting of LTtS. In fact, he was a preference of mine over snafu (though I don't regard snafu as highly innocent).

Of the 6 ghosts that havent haunted, can we count on 100% participation in short order to haunt LTtS? If not, we are "stuck" with snafu at this point.

well its settled (I guess). 6 votes to snafu. Once haunting is complete (I'd wait long enough to get codes set up, but not beyond the workday today) - I'd encourage ghosts to keep up the LtTS pressure, and one to Macroman, to indicate suspicions.

[Mulan]

Due to Tim's huge type, I really cannot read the EC thread thoroughly at work. I need to know who to haunt and what's been going on. Please help, unless the haunting is over.

[Asynchronous]

Due to Tim's huge type, I really cannot read the EC thread thoroughly at work. I need to know who to haunt and what's been going on. Please help, unless the haunting is over.

We have intentionally or unintentionally committed ourselves to haunting snafu. There was an attempt to possibly change that to Last Train, but Charlie Brown's haunt of snafu means that we have committed 6 votes to snafu and cannot get enough votes to successfully haunt LTtS to death.

Mulan, at this point, do nothing. The students are arranging codes with snafu to enable some communication with us, in the event that snafu is confirmed to be an innocent student. Haunting him now would kill him and prevent the establishment of such a code.

We also retain the ability to not haunt snafu, effecively passing this turn. I believe that this is not optimal strategy, but I haven't reviewed the numbers lately to be sure. However, if we were convinced that snafu was innocent, we might be better off passing regardless of the raw probabilities, forcing the EC to waste a turn on snafu, and preserving the ranks of innocent students to possibly delay the point at which the EC has an insurmountable majority.

At this point, I am not convinced of snafu's innocence, even though I would have preferred LTtS as a target this round. Once the students have indicated that the required codes have been established, one of us can cast the last required haunt to kill snafu. The rest of us should be free to haunt in a manner that communicates our individual or collective opinions about who else we find suspicious.

[Asynchronous]

As a followup, we are dangerously close to losing this game. With 10 students left (9 if we haunt snafu), only 6 (5 if we haunt snafu) student votes are required to lynch. Assuming 3-4 EC, that means the EC have strong bandwagoning ability, and it will take a unified front of innocent students to successfully lynch an EC if they don't cooperate.

[Mulan]

I've lost the train of the game due to work. Perhaps I'll have time this weekend to read it more thoroughly and help out a little.

Just based on my limited understanding (and thank you Async for helping), I think the ghosts should finish off snafu as soon as the code is in place. Sorry, snafu, in advance if you are not EC (but you probably are - someone has to be....)

[Asynchronous]

FYI, unless I hear otherwise from someone, I will cast the final haunt for snafu around 5pm Saturday. If someone wants to argue that we should not do this, speak up now.

This should give the students time to process the results and perform a lynching by the Tuesday deadline.

[snafu]

Will the remaining ghosts please put out some Haunts for Last Train to Skaville?

He is friggin' guilty. See my suspicions thread for my evidence.

[EB]

Will the remaining ghosts please put out some Haunts for Last Train to Skaville?
Ditto.

[Leela]

Who hasn't haunted since the last lynching. I think we need to encourage the student to lynch someone. I'm just not sure who that would be yet.

[Spidurman]

Its likely that the EC are behind the stall both public and private. The more random the lynching target, the better chance they can use their votes to kill an innocent student.

*Assumes 4/9 EC*

Today they kill an innocent, then execute another. Its now 4/7 and our turn. Assume we get lucky and bag one....its 3/6. At that point they can gridlock voting. If they get a kill there, its 3/5 and then 3/4 post-execution. They can then quickly vote off the last student and its over.

If we get an EC at 3/6, its 2/5 EC followed by 2/4 post-execution. We have to get one there (50/50 shot) for 1/3. If the students get the EC, they win. Otherwise the EC wins as innocent student is lynched (1/2) and then its the EC turn to kill the last innocent.

Its not good.

[Spidurman]

Still on 4/9, and assuming students hit an EC.

3/8 at that point, 3/7 after the EC executes. At that point if we hit an EC, its 2/6. At that point, its winnable - students can make it 1/5, EC turn 1/4...then two shots to win. If both shots miss, its over as the EC executes the last student.

If we miss at 3/7: its 3/6, students turn and only a student can die (unless the EC allows a lynching of their own). Therefore its likely 3/5, 3/4 after the execution and its over. The EC can then lynch the last student.

*bizarre thought* Students fail to lynch now.
its 4/9 and the EC's turn, so 4/8. We then haunt EC, 3/7 and students turn - if they can hit, its 2/6 and winnable. If they missed there its 3/6...ec turn 3/5 and trouble.

[snafu]

*bizarre thought* Students fail to lynch now.
its 4/9 and the EC's turn, so 4/8. We then haunt EC, 3/7 and students turn - if they can hit, its 2/6 and winnable. If they missed there its 3/6...ec turn 3/5 and trouble.

But we don't get to haunt. As someone pointed out, it is one haunt between lynchings. If the students fail to lynch, no haunt would be the technical reading of the rules.

[Spidurman]

But we don't get to haunt. As someone pointed out, it is one haunt between lynchings. If the students fail to lynch, no haunt would be the technical reading of the rules.

hrmm....

EC's turn, so 4/8. EC can lock up the game by not lynching here (or any time that they are 50% of the field or greater) and just executing one by one.

Not a good thing