Make like a tree and Leaf

[Elisha]

Ryan Leaf Retires (http://my.netscape.com/corewidgets/news/story.psp?cat=51480&id=200207262045000164659)

Um, he even played? Retire from what?

[Abducens]

He didn't even give the Bengals a chance to offer him a multi-million dollar deal before deciding quitting football is better.

[That Drunken Idiot]

A former co-worker of mine spent a month talking about how stupid the Colts were for drafting Manning instead of Leaf. I should give him a call.

[Quasi]

I saw a breakdown of how much he earned per win, per touchdown, etc. Very sad if you were a Charger fan, funny otherwise. Sure he's the butt of some jokes, but it sounds like a great deal to get to retire at that age with all of the money he made for nothing ($20M?).

[jets fan]

IMO, he's one of the biggest busts in the history of the NFL Draft. You could argue that maybe Aundray Bruce (#1 overall and didn't do sh*t), Tony Mandarich, Andre Ware or a few others are bigger, but Leaf sticks out in a big way.

With all of the thousands of hours these coaches, scouts and so-called NFL experts spend studying these college prospects, why is it that they are often comically wrong when estimating their talent?

[Cannonball]

Not that I know from experience, but I've heard from those who've played that it's a big jump from college to the NFL (not surprising). Even if you kicked butt in college, that doesn't mean you'll be able to take the next step.

Why can't they sort the future booms from the future busts more consistently? I just don't know. They're probably just too many factors that go into the equation.

The bottom line is that Leaf was a disgrace. Even worse than Mandarich, IMO.

[jets fan]

With all of the thousands of hours these coaches, scouts and so-called NFL experts spend studying these college prospects, why is it that they are often comically wrong when estimating their talent?

Maybe this was a little too strong. The answer to my question might lie in one of the words I used - "estimating". Maybe, in a sense, it's no different than actuaries making estimates. If all of our reserve predictions and premium projections were displayed all over "Sporstcenter" and hence, ripped apart when they were wrong (and let's face it, often times we get them "comically" wrong), we wouldn't look good either. :oops:

[Pub Guy]

I think the scouts probably assessed his raw physical skills appropriately, but really missed the boat on his attitude and character. I think that's the underlying source of Leaf's problems. Kinda like a Jeff George.

[Elisha]

A former co-worker of mine spent a month talking about how stupid the Colts were for drafting Manning instead of Leaf. I should give him a call. :lol:

...(and let's face it, often times we get them "comically" wrong), we wouldn't look good either.

Yeah, like...growing WC in a soft market?

[Pseudolus]

Not to mention that land war in Asia I suggested to upper management last year. That did not go as well as I had hoped...

[Ex-parrot]

classic blunder :shake2:

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Part of being a QB is being able to lead, and that means getting along with others, taking the blame when necessary, etc. This is easier in college, as often the head coach does most of the leading, and the whole team knows it.
A lot of Leaf's problems with the above would have been were known with a bit of asking.
What was wrong with Mandarich, anyway? I know he was a bust, but was there a reason?

[urysohn]

With all of the thousands of hours these coaches, scouts and so-called NFL experts spend studying these college prospects, why is it that they are often comically wrong when estimating their talent?

Maybe this was a little too strong. The answer to my question might lie in one of the words I used - "estimating". Maybe, in a sense, it's no different than actuaries making estimates. If all of our reserve predictions and premium projections were displayed all over "Sporstcenter" and hence, ripped apart when they were wrong (and let's face it, often times we get them "comically" wrong), we wouldn't look good either. :oops:
When I get paid $20mm and can single-handedly drive my company into the ground, then you've got an analogy to talk about. But since I'm not quite pulling down the NFL league minumum ($425K is it?), I'd say it's a different story.

(I've suggested before that entry-level actuaries should be selected via an "actuarial draft", that we should set up a long term contract system, add free agency --which is all we currently have-- including "franchise actuary" designations, and that we should officially unionize. Mostly, I've just been joking but...)

[Abducens]

>>(I've suggested before that entry-level actuaries should be selected via an "actuarial draft", that we should set up a long term contract system, add free agency --which is all we currently have-- including "franchise actuary" designations, and that we should officially unionize. Mostly, I've just been joking but...)

That's silly. Our current system of how hot you are (women) and how well you dress (men) works just fine.

[Quasi]

That's silly. Our current system of how hot you are (women) and how well you dress (men) works just fine.

I assume that you really mean how poorly you dress since everyone knows the best geeks aren't exactly GQ men ....

[jets fan]

When I get paid $20mm and can single-handedly drive my company into the ground, then you've got an analogy to talk about. But since I'm not quite pulling down the NFL league minumum ($425K is it?), I'd say it's a different story.

Urysohn, the analogy is to the people evaluating Leaf, not really to Leaf himself, so your salary comments are somewhat misplaced. The whole parallel I'm drawing is that there's is not an exact science, just as our is not. And I added that their inexact science, unlike ours, is splattered all over the TV by people (you could make a case where I did this with my first post above) who can't wait to rip them apart.

[wally world]

A former co-worker of mine spent a month talking about how stupid the Colts were for drafting Manning instead of Leaf. I should give him a call.

Dude, you used to work with Mel Kiper?

[vito]

NFL prospects go through several psychological profiles and tests, including the Wunderlich (sp?). I've heard that Leaf did not do particularly well on these tests, but teams felt they couldn't pass on him because of his raw talent. I always questioned this about the NFL; a player could have a great college career, but if their 40-time is below average, or if they are not the prototypical size, they get downgraded.

Someone asked about Mandarich. Here is some pure speculation. At MSU, they ran a fairly simple, run-oriented offense. Mandarich was successful using simple brute force. Maybe Tony couldn't grasp the more complicated NFL offenses. More cynical speculation: steroid abuse finally led to his demise.

[RTackle]

Dr. T,

Mandarich was a bust as the number 2 pick in '89 (right after Troy Aikman), but he became a somewhat serviceable tackle for a couple seasons with the Colts. I think the whispers in the NFL centered around the steroid topic. Apparently, many seemed to think Tony was monster at Michigan State because he was juiced up. I don't think that was ever proven, but given the NFL's testing policy, if he did go off the juice, he would have become mortal, particularly since his footwork was not very good (by NFL left tackle standards). Anyway, he moved to right tackle later on with the Colts and did ok for a bit.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Thanks, RT.
I think the Packers' (?) staff at the time needs to be blamed for their poor judgment. As does the Chargers' in Leaf's case.

[jets fan]

I think the Packers' (?) staff at the time needs to be blamed for their poor judgment. As does the Chargers' in Leaf's case.

In hindsight I have to agree, but at the time, no NFL team would have passed on either of those two. Here's another story: The Jets had a pretty big bust themselves when they selected Blaire Thomas in the very early part of the 1st round in 1990 :(. He only lasted a couple of years and never really amounted to a whole lot. Later on in the first round, a guy named Emmit Smith was selected by Dallas's Jimmy Johnson. The only problem is that Jimmy Johnson admitted that he would have picked Blaire Thomas if he had been available - he had to "settle" for Emmit Smith. It was not some keen insight Johnson had into Smith that put Smith in Dallas - it was the fact that Dallas picked later and Thomas wasn't available. Hindsight is an interesting word.

[AL THE LAB]

You guys are mean.