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4sigma
01-03-2006, 07:09 PM
If EC is on top of things, they may well perform only one execution next turn instead of two. This would leave 3 students alive at our final haunting rather than 2, giving us only a 1/3 chance of hitting EC instead of 1/2. (Note that Urysohn's analysis here (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1337686&postcount=554) does not account for this. So either he's going out of his way to give EC bad strategic advice, or he hasn't noticed that this is a better strategy for EC than the one he listed.)

If EC does this and the ghosts haunt incorrectly, the students will be unable to perform a lynching, leading to an EC victory. So either the ghosts can haunt or the students can lynch, but not both. In this scenario, it may be reasonable for the ghosts to pass and leave the final decision up to the students.

Blue Skies
01-03-2006, 07:24 PM
Welcome to last week. ;-)

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1337799&postcount=5

What, you werent here last week? pfft, thats no excuse.

Anyway, not only that, but urysohn's calculation of our chances to hit the mole under his scenario was also incorrect.

Here's the updated odds now that we missed with 4sigma:

Mole uses perfect strategy:

(1/5)+(4/5)(1/3) = 1/5 + 4/15 = 46.7%

Mole screws up and kills 2:

(1/5) + (4/5)(1/2) = 1/5 + 2/5 = 60.0%

Blue Skies
01-03-2006, 07:31 PM
Lets assume that butters is innocent and the players dont lynch him (it appears atm that he wont be lynched).

Mole uses perfect strategy, & mole kills butters:

1/4+(3/4)(1/3)=50%

Mole uses perfect strategy, but does not kill butters:

1/4+(3/4)(1/2)=62.5%

Mole kills 2, including butters

1/4+1/2=75%

Mole kills 2, but leaves butters alive

100%

4sigma
01-04-2006, 01:47 AM
Blue Skies,

I agree with your calculations above. Though hopefully the guesses at this point are better than random. For the moment, we watch and wait.

wat?
01-04-2006, 02:59 AM
Blue Skies,

I agree with your calculations above. Though hopefully the guesses at this point are better than random. For the moment, we watch and wait.

This has nothing to do with the calculations, but I went back today and looked through the 600+ replies in the game thread. However, I viewed the thread under the assumption that Arachn is it. As far as I could tell, it's consistent. Voting along with the bandwagon (he had cast two decisive votes, where his vote counted as the final one to lynch a student), present at just about every lynching/assassination/execution/haunting deadline, refusal to post in the poker threads in Diversions (although, I'm not sure anyone would since it would either out the player's lack of knowledge of Hold'em or an over-abundance of knowledge).

There was also something I saw in the thread where it seemed to imply a "+EV play", which is rampant in the Poker forum and that Arachn is probably one of the most vocal posters regarding EV strategy (although snafu and Butters are up there as well).

But like I said, I wasn't looking for suggestions - more just a validation of my preconceptions.

4sigma
01-05-2006, 06:55 PM
Curiously, EC has made 5 posts with both the EC Mole ID and the ECB ID. Hopefully EC does not realize that their optimum strategy is to perform only one execution this round. If they perform both of their allowed killings, that will give us a much better chance of success.

Thanks to wat? for noticing.

I may have to look back through some past game threads and see who has been involved in discussing endgame strategy in the past. If EC makes this strategic error of failing to pass once this round, this probably rules out as EC anyone who has been involved in the "should we pass" discussions in the past.

Blue Skies
01-06-2006, 07:55 PM
Updated odds:

If Butters is dead, its 50/50

If Butters is alive, we win

4sigma
01-06-2006, 07:59 PM
Perhaps. I think it is "obvious" for EC to assassinate Butters this round. If you were EC, why would you leave him alive, when the ghosts have indicated they would like to haunt Arachn and/or Leela. I will find it curious if he is not dead.

urysohn
01-12-2006, 09:12 PM
Perhaps. I think it is "obvious" for EC to assassinate Butters this round. If you were EC, why would you leave him alive, when the ghosts have indicated they would like to haunt Arachn and/or Leela. I will find it curious if he is not dead.
If I had been in the game as the ECMole and had survived to the end, I would have lost in the finals. Because I thought Butters was the apparently most suspicious player. The "Butters Theory"? Hook, line, and sinker with a whole supporting cast of additional "evidence" I thought would make it clear to many he was a likeable target. :oops: