4sigma
01-06-2006, 09:19 PM
PM #1: Received 5 Dec, 10:10 a.m. Eastern time.
(My original post was to Butters and All Clear, indicating that I thought they were both not EC, and suggesting Linus as a target, and also noting that EC's sports posts could be a female attempt to impersonate a male.
This message is going to 4sigma and All Clear:
4sigma, while I don't think I can ever fully trust you due to your skill in playing this game, I will admit that you are pretty low on my radar in this game. I will also admit that I would be shocked if All Clear is the final EC.
I have not read the thread since last Friday, so please forgive me if anything I type seems odd in light of new information.
With regards to Linus, I'm not sure that I agree with your analysis. I would be surprised that someone with Linus' experience (or at least his alt's experience) would do something that blatant that would point your suspicion at him.
I agree that Leela, Mulan, and J.T. are worth watching, and I suspect them in that order. Leela is very clever and has experience playing this game. Mulan sometimes appears to be trying too hard to play dumb.
I don't have any other insights right now, but will share if I do.
PM #2, received 12/13, 12:17 p.m Eastern time.
Sent to Butters, All Clear.
Blue Skies has thrown up a vote for All Clear. Macroman has also indicated a bit of suspicion.
I still think it's virtually impossible for EC Mole / ECB to have made the posts he has made if All Clear is EC.
For the moment, I'm keeping my defense of All Clear a bit mild. I don't want to tip off EC that I'm fairly convinced All Clear is innocent, else he becomes a primo EC target. But if needed, I think we should make an effort to avoid allowing him to be lynched.
EC's recent silence does puzzle me. Mulan has made her way onto my radar now, not only for her recent absence, but also because I think that EC's earlier "Go Colts" post is mildly suggestive of a female attempting to seem like a male poster. I will be interested to see if she shows up and explains her recent absence -- normally she is around the AO quite regularly, I think.
It's also possible that EC is engaged in a cunning strategy. EC's later killings are more important than their earlier ones. According to my calculations, EC's odds of winning the game dropped from 36.9% to 34.1% by passing rather than executing & assassinating. Not a very big difference. Meanwhile, we get no clues to EC's identity. So I think it's possible that EC has rationally decided not to act this round.
I don't think this particularly fits the profile of most of the remaining players. Perhaps snafu, who has done a lot of post timing analysis in past games -- he might be aiming to leave as little EC paper trail as possible, if he were EC.
I do think that the mole's (not EC Mole -- the "AO" mole) comment has merit -- it could be an attempt by EC to frame folks that are inactive. EC Mole was quite talkative at the start of the game and has shown an inclination to kill off the quiet folks. Perhaps he is trying to get the students to assist him. My sense is that perhaps we should be looking to target someone reasonably talkative. (But not myself, of course. I'm not EC!)
-- 4sig
I have to admit that Mulan has been on my radar as well. It seemed to me that she was playing the "How does this game work?" angle early in the game. I would be willing to lynch her at any time unless some new evidence is presented.
BTW, I was offline since Thursday evening, so I may have to catch up on the thread to see what's happened.
Post #3: 16 Dec, 9:53 a.m. Eastern Time
...
I am thinking that snafu is unlikely to be EC. For a couple of reasons. First, snafu is located on some podunk Atlantic island, IIRC. He usually posts around 3 a.m. Paciifc time and then again around noon Pacific time. The posts EC Mole made on 11/23 at nearly 8 p.m. Pacific time would be after midnight for him, I think. Looking over snafu's posting history, he never stays up this late. It's possible that this was a charade by a snafu-mole to divert attention. But it seems that EC Mole was being a bit careless early, and has then wisened up. I think the Mole's recent posting pattern is the charade rather than the earlier one.
Reason #2 is that it would be a very deep game by snafu to stay up extra late to make posts as EC Mole. Snafu might be up for that for the sake of the game, I suppose. But if he were, I think he would continue it by making further posts by EC Mole at "non-snafu" times, rather than post at times that "could be anybody" as EC Mole has done.
I would agree that the timing would not seem to implicate snafu. Unless he happened to be playing poker that late, he probably would not be online.
I'm thinking J.T. or Leela are good targets. I'm also suspicious of wat?
To me, Werewolf seems less likely to be EC unless he is trying very hard to act differently as EC.
PM #4 -- received 12/22, 4:32 p.m Eastern time
Message to All Clear and 4sigma:
I wanted to share my current thoughts with you based on what has happened so far.
I think the evening posting was either meant to frame All Clear or to keep people away from guessing the EC's true identity. However, I think the late posting times actually make it less likely that snafu is EC (which 4sigma had previously mentioned). Here is my current list of top three suspects:
Blue Skies
Leela
Kenshiro
If either of you joins the ghost forum before I do, you have my permission to share this with the other ghosts.
Blue Skies seems to know a lot for a "new" player. I also like some of snafu's comments regarding BS's recent play.
Leela seems to be playing a little bit differently than in the past. She was awfully quiet at the beginning of the game.
Kenshiro doesn't post too much and is hard to get a read on. Seems slightly suspicious to me.
I guess my next choice might be Arachn. I know he's up playing poker some nights, so the post times wouldn't be hard for him to make.
I will not be checking the forum Saturday through Monday morning.
Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays!
PM #5 -- received 12/28 at 12:21 p.m. Eastern time
An execution has transpired, and it wasn't me. I hope you're still alive, too.
What credence do you give to urysohn's post that ECB (or maybe it was ECMole, I can't remember) was showing up as online during the day for a while? If true, I think this makes All Clear less likely to be EC.
PM #6 -- received 12/28 at 12:24 p.m Eastern time
Message sent to All Clear and 4sigma:
I wanted to let both of you know that I checked in on December 27 around 11PM EST for the first time since before Christmas. I had to do that to make sure I submitted my picks for Jables's 2006 Celebrity Death Pool.
PM #7 -- received 12/28 at 12:43 p.m. Eastern time
I just sent the last PM to you and All Clear, and when I went to do some research on when ECB/ECMole posted, I saw a new post from All Clear stating that he was executed.
If you choose to believe my prior PM, you will know that I was not online during the most recent EC posts. If I choose to believe your prior PM, I can say the same thing about you.
It will be interesting to see who gets killed by the ECMole. Hopefully, it's neither of us.
Hope you had a nice vacation!
PM #8 -- this is me checking in briefly from an internet cafe while I am on vacation. Butters sends me a nondescript response. Received 12/28 at 2:35 p.m.
4sigma here. I got internet access for 15 minutes today from an internet cafe. I'm in Cabo San Lucas. I have a few minutes left over so decided to check in here. I realized that if Werewolf was dead but I was alive, nobody would have my proxy.
I read the thread briefly. EC made a good choice taking out All Clear, I think. It is hard for him to have been EC.
I saw your PMs. I still believe you are not EC. My top choices are Leela and Arachn. FYI, I also was not around last night at the time ECMole posted -- I was having a drink at the local cantina.
Will chat more later -- my 15 minutes is about up.
-- 4sig.
Enjoy your vacation! It sounds like fun!
(My original post was to Butters and All Clear, indicating that I thought they were both not EC, and suggesting Linus as a target, and also noting that EC's sports posts could be a female attempt to impersonate a male.
This message is going to 4sigma and All Clear:
4sigma, while I don't think I can ever fully trust you due to your skill in playing this game, I will admit that you are pretty low on my radar in this game. I will also admit that I would be shocked if All Clear is the final EC.
I have not read the thread since last Friday, so please forgive me if anything I type seems odd in light of new information.
With regards to Linus, I'm not sure that I agree with your analysis. I would be surprised that someone with Linus' experience (or at least his alt's experience) would do something that blatant that would point your suspicion at him.
I agree that Leela, Mulan, and J.T. are worth watching, and I suspect them in that order. Leela is very clever and has experience playing this game. Mulan sometimes appears to be trying too hard to play dumb.
I don't have any other insights right now, but will share if I do.
PM #2, received 12/13, 12:17 p.m Eastern time.
Sent to Butters, All Clear.
Blue Skies has thrown up a vote for All Clear. Macroman has also indicated a bit of suspicion.
I still think it's virtually impossible for EC Mole / ECB to have made the posts he has made if All Clear is EC.
For the moment, I'm keeping my defense of All Clear a bit mild. I don't want to tip off EC that I'm fairly convinced All Clear is innocent, else he becomes a primo EC target. But if needed, I think we should make an effort to avoid allowing him to be lynched.
EC's recent silence does puzzle me. Mulan has made her way onto my radar now, not only for her recent absence, but also because I think that EC's earlier "Go Colts" post is mildly suggestive of a female attempting to seem like a male poster. I will be interested to see if she shows up and explains her recent absence -- normally she is around the AO quite regularly, I think.
It's also possible that EC is engaged in a cunning strategy. EC's later killings are more important than their earlier ones. According to my calculations, EC's odds of winning the game dropped from 36.9% to 34.1% by passing rather than executing & assassinating. Not a very big difference. Meanwhile, we get no clues to EC's identity. So I think it's possible that EC has rationally decided not to act this round.
I don't think this particularly fits the profile of most of the remaining players. Perhaps snafu, who has done a lot of post timing analysis in past games -- he might be aiming to leave as little EC paper trail as possible, if he were EC.
I do think that the mole's (not EC Mole -- the "AO" mole) comment has merit -- it could be an attempt by EC to frame folks that are inactive. EC Mole was quite talkative at the start of the game and has shown an inclination to kill off the quiet folks. Perhaps he is trying to get the students to assist him. My sense is that perhaps we should be looking to target someone reasonably talkative. (But not myself, of course. I'm not EC!)
-- 4sig
I have to admit that Mulan has been on my radar as well. It seemed to me that she was playing the "How does this game work?" angle early in the game. I would be willing to lynch her at any time unless some new evidence is presented.
BTW, I was offline since Thursday evening, so I may have to catch up on the thread to see what's happened.
Post #3: 16 Dec, 9:53 a.m. Eastern Time
...
I am thinking that snafu is unlikely to be EC. For a couple of reasons. First, snafu is located on some podunk Atlantic island, IIRC. He usually posts around 3 a.m. Paciifc time and then again around noon Pacific time. The posts EC Mole made on 11/23 at nearly 8 p.m. Pacific time would be after midnight for him, I think. Looking over snafu's posting history, he never stays up this late. It's possible that this was a charade by a snafu-mole to divert attention. But it seems that EC Mole was being a bit careless early, and has then wisened up. I think the Mole's recent posting pattern is the charade rather than the earlier one.
Reason #2 is that it would be a very deep game by snafu to stay up extra late to make posts as EC Mole. Snafu might be up for that for the sake of the game, I suppose. But if he were, I think he would continue it by making further posts by EC Mole at "non-snafu" times, rather than post at times that "could be anybody" as EC Mole has done.
I would agree that the timing would not seem to implicate snafu. Unless he happened to be playing poker that late, he probably would not be online.
I'm thinking J.T. or Leela are good targets. I'm also suspicious of wat?
To me, Werewolf seems less likely to be EC unless he is trying very hard to act differently as EC.
PM #4 -- received 12/22, 4:32 p.m Eastern time
Message to All Clear and 4sigma:
I wanted to share my current thoughts with you based on what has happened so far.
I think the evening posting was either meant to frame All Clear or to keep people away from guessing the EC's true identity. However, I think the late posting times actually make it less likely that snafu is EC (which 4sigma had previously mentioned). Here is my current list of top three suspects:
Blue Skies
Leela
Kenshiro
If either of you joins the ghost forum before I do, you have my permission to share this with the other ghosts.
Blue Skies seems to know a lot for a "new" player. I also like some of snafu's comments regarding BS's recent play.
Leela seems to be playing a little bit differently than in the past. She was awfully quiet at the beginning of the game.
Kenshiro doesn't post too much and is hard to get a read on. Seems slightly suspicious to me.
I guess my next choice might be Arachn. I know he's up playing poker some nights, so the post times wouldn't be hard for him to make.
I will not be checking the forum Saturday through Monday morning.
Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays!
PM #5 -- received 12/28 at 12:21 p.m. Eastern time
An execution has transpired, and it wasn't me. I hope you're still alive, too.
What credence do you give to urysohn's post that ECB (or maybe it was ECMole, I can't remember) was showing up as online during the day for a while? If true, I think this makes All Clear less likely to be EC.
PM #6 -- received 12/28 at 12:24 p.m Eastern time
Message sent to All Clear and 4sigma:
I wanted to let both of you know that I checked in on December 27 around 11PM EST for the first time since before Christmas. I had to do that to make sure I submitted my picks for Jables's 2006 Celebrity Death Pool.
PM #7 -- received 12/28 at 12:43 p.m. Eastern time
I just sent the last PM to you and All Clear, and when I went to do some research on when ECB/ECMole posted, I saw a new post from All Clear stating that he was executed.
If you choose to believe my prior PM, you will know that I was not online during the most recent EC posts. If I choose to believe your prior PM, I can say the same thing about you.
It will be interesting to see who gets killed by the ECMole. Hopefully, it's neither of us.
Hope you had a nice vacation!
PM #8 -- this is me checking in briefly from an internet cafe while I am on vacation. Butters sends me a nondescript response. Received 12/28 at 2:35 p.m.
4sigma here. I got internet access for 15 minutes today from an internet cafe. I'm in Cabo San Lucas. I have a few minutes left over so decided to check in here. I realized that if Werewolf was dead but I was alive, nobody would have my proxy.
I read the thread briefly. EC made a good choice taking out All Clear, I think. It is hard for him to have been EC.
I saw your PMs. I still believe you are not EC. My top choices are Leela and Arachn. FYI, I also was not around last night at the time ECMole posted -- I was having a drink at the local cantina.
Will chat more later -- my 15 minutes is about up.
-- 4sig.
Enjoy your vacation! It sounds like fun!