snafu

[4sigma]

EC or not EC -- that is the question.

This thread for comments about snafu -- things he has done or that EC has done which suggest that snafu is or is not EC. I believe there are some comments sprinkled throughout the ghost forum, but it will make it easier if we collect them all here in a single thread.

I'll post my full thoughts here later tonight.

[4sigma]

Reasons to vote for snafu:

1) snafu is very aware of efforts to track EC by their posting times. He has led such analyses in the past. If he were EC, he would surely follow carefully chosen posting times that (A) do not fit his regular pattern of posting times, and (B) are at a time when many players are on. EC has done this.

2) snafu already has a Red swingline. :P

3) snafu has been pretty quiet this game. Usually he picks out someone that he thinks is EC and bulldogs them until they're lynched. He has not done that this game. Why is he not looking harder for the EC? Perhaps because he does not need to....

4) Is apparently blissfully unaware that EC has made a major strategic blunder by not passing one of their last two turns.

5) EC killed Arachn in the last round, even though ghosts had shown interest in haunting Arachn. Why? Perhaps because snafu thinks Arachn is on his good side and will argue to haunt Leela?

6) EC makes banter about EK in an early post and posts EK's old avatar. snafu and EK did a lot of bantering.

7) Was snafu perhaps a bit quick to finish off Kenshiro when Butters was still interested in haunting Leela or Arachn?

Reasons not to vote for snafu:

1) snafu makes occasional spelling errors. Try a search for "chrystal", for example. EC Mole does not seem to share this fault.

2) EC has made some posts as late as 11 p.m. Eastern time. This is extremely late for snafu. (Anyone know what time zone he is in?)

3) EC talks about SOA exams result dates. snafu is CAS. (I think this is a weak reason -- SOA exam result dates are widely known.)

Feel free to add any that I have left out -- either pro or con.

[4sigma]

Another reason to vote for snafu -- I just found this one:

Check out this post (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1347753&postcount=38) by EC Mole:

Let me know if you need any more “volunteers.” I can get you as many volunteers as you will need. Do they have to be living volunteers? ‘Cause that’s just not as fun.

The usage of 'cause is not terribly common. But snafu is fond of it. Check here (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1348402&postcount=1984) for example.


I normally play the $25+2 turbos 'cause I don't even have the patience for a regular SNG

A frame attempt by EC? If so, the timing is incredible. EC's post is on 1/5. snafu's post is a day later on 1/6.

[Arachn]

Snafu is one hour before EST (whatever the heck that is) I think. However, I've seen him playing poker at those times.

[Butters]

Another reason to vote for snafu -- I just found this one:

Check out this post (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1347753&postcount=38) by EC Mole:



The usage of 'cause is not terribly common. But snafu is fond of it. Check here (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1348402&postcount=1984) for example.



A frame attempt by EC? If so, the timing is incredible. EC's post is on 1/5. snafu's post is a day later on 1/6.

This looks to be pretty good evidence. Has Leela ever used 'cause?

[4sigma]

This looks to be pretty good evidence. Has Leela ever used 'cause?

I didn't find any, but it is hard to look. The search feature won't let you search for 'cause since it contains punctuation. And it also won't let you search for cause, which it considers too common a word. I happened to stumble across 'cause in one of snafu's most recent posts, but not in any of Leela's.

[4sigma]

My comments on snafu's defenses.

(1) As a point of exonerating evidence I offer my conduct during the Kenshiro lynching. Arachn can vouch that I PM'ed him and asked him to withdraw his vote so that the Mole couldn't jump in and finish the job. After some back and forth, Arachn decided to go with a Kenshiro vote. If I were the Mole why the heck would I do this when I could just keep my mouth shut and wait for someone to cast the third vote. Kenshiro was a goner at that point and I made an attempt to steer the vote away from him or at least slow down the vote for additional consideration of the evidence.

I then waited and neither Leela nor Butters seemed available to vote so I cast the deciding vote only once I had to leave work for the day (check my regular ending times I am 1 hour ahead of EST). (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1354803&postcount=653)

I don't think this argument holds much water. I would respect it more if snafu were drawing votes at the time, but nobody was voting for snafu back then. There was one vote apiece for Kenshiro, Leela, and Arachn at that point.

(2) For additional consideration, I cast a fairly critical vote against Charlie Brown (helped break the tie). Since the mole only wins if he is last alive or executes the other EC, why would I want to knock off one of the other ECs. Could be just a coincidence / accident. (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1354834&postcount=654)

This is true, but I think this is a coincidence. Doubtful if he was certain that CB was EC. I may have made this argument as a reason I was not EC. But then, I was more certain that CB was EC. :D

(3) and (4)As further consideration, assume for a minute that Leela is the mole. Why would she chose me as her final challenger.

Lots of snafu picks in the early rounds indicate solid suspicion of me from lots of directions All Clear will haunt me 'cause he is still pissed about that stapler I cost him
She set me up on the Kenshiro lynching to look like an idiot and it worked as Arachn has already cast his haunt

In short is it more likely that the most suspected person is actually the culprit or that the true culprit takes along the most suspected person. (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1354853&postcount=655)

More consideration, I think the most exonerating, and would ask the ghosts to consider this item with particular care...

If I were the mole, why would I chose Leela as my final challenger. It's not like she was getting a lot of votes the last few rounds. Why not pick Arachn who at least had a few votes lately.

snafu = mole taking along Leela for the ride doesn't make nearly as much sense as Leela = mole taking snafu along for the ride. (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1354874&postcount=656)

This makes a bit of sense to me. He is saying it was obvious for the mole to leave Arachn alive, and he would not have made this error. He claims Leela has made this error by leaving snafu alive.

However, I do think we have an answer to why he (if he's EC) would have Arachn killed -- due to his extensive PM exchange with Arachn, he may have felt that Arachn truly believed him to be innocent and would be arguing to protect him. Obviously at this point, since Arachn has haunted him, this didn't work, so he can now claim that he "obviously" would not have done it.


(5). I am known to do damn near anything to win but 1. I would never root against my longhorns, not even to win a red swingline and 2. I was not anywhere near a computer at this time, otherwise I for sure would have been posting in the USC Texas thread as myself.

...


I can't kick back and enjoy the Texas game. I don't friggin' have TV and have to go to the sports bar. I'm pretty sure I've posted that here before.

And if you think I would ever post something as vile as "go other team" even to throw the hounds off my scent you are nuts.

Also do you really think if I were online I could have avoided posting something about the Texas win. Give me a break.
(http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showpost.php?p=1354923&postcount=658)

Curious what people think of this one. Is this in character or out of character for snafu? I do know that there are some sports fanatics that would never post "GO [opponents]" merely to win a stapler. And his sports bar story sounds credible. I do think this is a point in snafu's favor, but unclear how much weight to give it. He definitely thinks in terms of identifying EC by posting times, so he would be one to make his posting times seem to indicate his innocence.

[Butters]

Also do you really think if I were online I could have avoided posting something about the Texas win. Give me a break.

Assuming snafu is a Texas alumnus (is that correct?), I think this is pretty convincing. If my alma mater had won and I was online, you better believe that I would post something. If he's EC, he cares WAY too much about this EC game.

[wat?]

Assuming snafu is a Texas alumnus (is that correct?), I think this is pretty convincing. If my alma mater had won and I was online, you better believe that I would post something. If he's EC, he cares WAY too much about this EC game.

Enough for another Red Swingline?

[Butters]

Assuming snafu is innocent, I wonder if the fact that he won the stapler before led Leela to keep him? Would she think that we would want to make sure that snafu didn't win another prize so he'd be the obvious choice for a haunt?

[4sigma]

Assuming snafu is innocent, I wonder if the fact that he won the stapler before led Leela to keep him? Would she think that we would want to make sure that snafu didn't win another prize so he'd be the obvious choice for a haunt?Oooh. I like that theory!

[Butters]

Arachn,

Is there any way to find out if snafu was playing poker around the time of the EC's late night posts?

[4sigma]

If he's EC, he cares WAY too much about this EC game.

FWIW, snafu does pursue victory in these games pretty avidly. Historically he is very savvy at doing what must be done to increase his odds of stapler acquisition.

[4sigma]

I did look over snafu's orange picks:

Round 1: All Clear and Kenshiro
Round 2: Leela
Round 3: Blue Skies
Round 4: Blue Skies
Round 5: Arachn
Round 6: Leela

snafu can't win if he is innocent, since at most he can get 2 points if Leela is EC, and that can't possibly be enough. For starters, Butters and I each almost certainly have 2 points for Charlie Brown = ECC from round 1, and if Leela is EC we can each get at least one more point this round by picking Leela. Snafu is very stapler-savvy, so he ought to know that he can't win if he is innocent. If he is still angling for a stapler, it has to be because he is EC, IMHO.

[wat?]

I did look over snafu's orange picks:

Round 1: All Clear and Kenshiro
Round 2: Leela
Round 3: Blue Skies
Round 4: Blue Skies
Round 5: Arachn
Round 6: Leela

snafu can't win if he is innocent, since at most he can get 2 points if Leela is EC, and that can't possibly be enough. For starters, Butters and I each almost certainly have 2 points for Charlie Brown = ECC from round 1, and if Leela is EC we can each get at least one more point this round by picking Leela. Snafu is very stapler-savvy, so he ought to know that he can't win if he is innocent. If he is still angling for a stapler, it has to be because he is EC, IMHO.

Seems like snafu's picks seemed to be the popular choice of the time. I remember we wanted to string up Leela in the beginning. Then it may have turned to Blue Skies because I remember Blue Skies discussing some strategy in the threads that an EC might not want have had discussed.

Then, Arachn - why pick if you're sure of innocence? Because it's popular? Because you're not really angling for points?

[edit] Did snafu's persistence in getting Blue Skies strung up occur after someone threw a line of doubt their way? That way, you switch your EC strategy of following the bandwagon and instead, try to focus on getting someone lynched. No? Eh - I could just be making it up.

[4sigma]

It doesn't bother me that he's picking the way the wind blows. Many people were doing the same thing. I think I made the same picks for Blue Skies and Arachn.

What does seem odd is that he is suddenly passionate about the game when he apparently has no chance of winning the prize if he is not EC. Then again, it seems odd that Leela is so disinterested. Go figure.

[Arachn]

Arachn,

Is there any way to find out if snafu was playing poker around the time of the EC's late night posts?
No Butters, I just know that he's capable of being up until 11 PM EST online from ASOPs.

4sig - I don't Leela's been totally interested all game

[4sigma]

OK, I think I'm ready to string up snafu now. He just made another 'cause post, this time in the game thread. I quoted it for amusement. But it's clear that snafu considers this to be rather ordinary English, and would likely use it in an EC post without thinking it odd.

Will discuss more in the "final haunting" thread.

[4sigma]

Another note on snafu -- he was apparently on vacation from 12/13 to 12/19. EC made a flurry of posts on 12/15 to fulfill their posting requirement. EC Mole posts around 11 a.m. Eastern time. ECB posts the same day but around 8 p.m Eastern time.

It's possible, of course, to check in while on vacation. I admit to doing this while I was on vacation. If I were EC, I certainly would find a way to do so. But it's perhaps a bit curious that ECB and EC Mole check in at different times on 12/15.

Arachn, do you have any way to check if snafu was around playing poker or anything during this interval? I'm curious how inacessible he was during his vacation.

[Arachn]

sorry 4sig - basically what I did for my poker checks was to either 1)be playing against him or 2)use a search-for-user feature to see if he was playing.