C4 - Nov 2002 discussion thread (post mortem)

[Pi Man]

If course 4 is being released by the society, is it cool to discuss particular questions from memory?

[casquetboy]

I wouldn't do it, given there are no guarantees the SOA will actually release the exam, plus the fact that regardless of whether they do, you would have still committed the high crime (according to the SOA) of disscussing material that is not yet public (if you can call 3,000 people with excellent memorization skills spending 4 complete stressfull hours analyzing the heck out of it not a public disclosure!). Remember prohibition? It was still illegal to drink a beer the day before the law was repealed. If you try to engage in a meaningful discussion of material to enhance your learning experience for this sitting, the SOA might get you for copyright infringement and try to have your brain confiscated.
:rant:
:imwith:

[djeric]

In response, to that last message, check out this discussion thread...

http://www.actuary.ca/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=7051

So, now that it is Wednesday, I think (according to the SOA), it's completely legitimate to discuss material from the exam, as this is part of the learning process. That being said, if you have a photographic memory, and remember every single question word for word, I probably wouldn't post it here.

All right, so what did you guys think? I think it was a fair exam, with a few pretty tough questions thrown in there...I'm thinking for myself somewhere between 27 and 31. Do you think the pass score will be significantly higher than in the past? (i.e., is that range in danger of failing?)... did other people think this exam was too easy? too hard? what do you think the pass score will be? :roll:

[Anon1234]

I think it was a bit harder than the previous published exams, but still a fair exam. I heard rumors that a previous pass score was around 19, but I don't think it will be that low this time. I think I probably got around 22 to 24 right. I hope that that will be a pass.

[Maximus]

I thought it was a tough one!!! Hopefully the pass mark will reflect that.

[IOWA ACTUARY]

It seemed easier than the prior two I took. Might have just been in synch with what I remembered.

[haywood22]

It was my first time spending any significant time on the exam and I was hoping to answer about 15 or so (based on the exams the SoA released) and get a 4 or a 5. I was able to do that which makes me think the exam was on par with the previous ones. I'd say a 22 or a 23 to pass would be pretty close.

Waiting for the exam to be released........

[J.T.]

I agree with Iowa...I thought it was easier...Having taken 4 before, I thought it was relatively easy to the past couple of sittings. Maybe they finally asked what I knew. The answer key seems to justify that. The answers seem to converge on most questions. You can tell which ones gave people trouble (Seem to be the same ones that gave me trouble). I just hope that it's enough to pass this time.

Pi, what did you think?

[DukeBlue]

This was my first attempt--thought it was easier than May 2000 and November 2001, which I had worked all the way through. The first half of the test was very pleasing to me--did it in about 90 minutes, but the next 12 or so were brutal, as I recall. And I think the last 3 questions, as seems to be the trend, were on the easier end as well. I thought there were not as many theory questions as Nov 2001, but the ones that were asked were brutal.

I've tried not to think about specific questions, but I'm sure that I will once the test is released.

[aces219]

I feel like this test was on par with the prior ones. Some easy questions, and some really tough ones. It might have been a little easier, so I'll say 24, though that was the pass mark on May 2000 and I think this one was more difficult than that test. Maybe 23.

According to the popular key, I got at least 29 right. No more Course 4 for me (but it did take 2 tries)!

[AfroSoul]

I feel it was on par with the others though maybe slighty easier than Nov 2001 (last releseased exam)

How many degrees of freedom did the Chi-squared vaiable have for that question where they asked you to regroup data into 4 groups not 5????

Did anyone understand what the hell they were asking for on that question about the R^2 statistic - their english was really convoluted in that question.

[Joey Critter]

4 groups minus 1 minus one estimated parameter = 2 DF

[djeric]

the R^2 theoretical question was worded horribly!..."which statement does not have an objection to R^2 being used" or something like that... were they intending to use a double negative?....

does anyone remember the double exponential time series question? according to the general consensus of the answer key, (this question was #22), most people put down 0.96 (letter B)...I was almost positive that it was letter C though 1.16...I used a recursive formula twice..

y(smooth(2)) = (alpha)*y(2) + (1-alpha)*y(smooth(1))

and y(smooth(1)) = (alpha)*y(1) + (1-alpha)*y(smooth(0))

since y(0) = 1, I said y(smooth(0))= 0.6, and since alpha = 0.6 and y(1) = 1.2 and y(3) = 1.3, I calculated y(smooth(1)) = (0.6)*(1.2) + (0.4)*(0.6) = 0.96. Then y(smooth(2)) = (0.6)*(1.3) + (0.4)*(0.96) = 1.164, or choice C...

let me know if anyone agrees or disagrees with this.

[Kira]

Based on the answer key, I've definitely got 26 and maybe a couple more. Do you think that will be enough? Normally I would think so, but I thought this exam was easier than the last one and the Nov 2001 exam.

[Surfin'_Actuary]

I agree with Iowa...I thought it was easier...Having taken 4 before, I thought it was relatively easy to the past couple of sittings. Maybe they finally asked what I knew. The answer key seems to justify that. The answers seem to converge on most questions. You can tell which ones gave people trouble (Seem to be the same ones that gave me trouble). I just hope that it's enough to pass this time.

Pi, what did you think?

I agree with you guys, I took the exam in May and I feel like this exam was quite a bit easier than the ones in the past. This seems to be the general consensus with about 3 other students I've talked to. I also talked to some people who took course 5, and they too, agreed that their exam was quite a bit easier than usual. I wonder what the Society is up to. Something's rotten in the state of Denmark...

[the ladies man]

Does anyone mind telling me how many of each letter were on the popular answer key.. Or would someone post the popular answer key.

Thanks.

[Surfin'_Actuary]

I had 10 E's! That scared the bajesus out of me! Anyone else remember having a bunch of E's?

[Pi Man]

harder/easier? i have nothing to compare it to other than the sample exams, but i used them to study, so i don't see how i can compare and keep a straight face. it seemed fair, but i thought i saw a few things i did NOT see in the texts... any comments on that?

[Truth Soldier]

djeric, wasn't the question looking for the doubly-smoothed y(2)? i think i got .98 or .99.

also, 10 E's isn't that much, since you'll have 8 on average.

[Surfin'_Actuary]

Yea, exactly my point, over what's expected, AND an 'E.' You never get E's for an answer!

[Surfin'_Actuary]

Yo Pi,
I was pretty darn well prepared and I recognized all the material.

[DukeBlue]

I think I had 12 E's, but a couple were "educated" guesses toward the end.

[Gandalf]

Yea, exactly my point, over what's expected, AND an 'E.' You never get E's for an answer!

Based on 46 respondents here, (http://www.boatingwithtr.com/paul/Exams/ExamResults.asp?Exam=4) there are 30 questions where a majority agree on a single letter, and 8 of those are E.

[casquetboy]

I don't think it was an easy exam, but I definitely felt better about it. I think the 'easier' tab comes from a general feeling of doing better, and it's mostly pegged by second time takers like myself. Last May I felt like I was hit by a Mack truck when I got out of the exam. This time, I knew what they were talking about for most questions, and could have probably worked about 35 if I had the time. I though it was a well balanced exam. I believe (or I hope...) the pass mark will not be much different than previously experienced: 22-23. The highest pass mark I've seen under the new system so far was 60% on C2 about a year and a half ago. That would be 24 on a 40-question exam. I sure hope the 26 I've got according to the popular key does it, 'cause I don't ever want to see survival models again in my lifetime (regardless of it's expected value)! By the way, does anyone out there remember how well the popular keys have done in the past? 8)

[AfroSoul]

By my estimation, the popular answer key gets only about 35 out of 40 for course 4

[Macroman]

Course 4 Nov 02 is now posted at:

http://www.soa.org/eande/course4_1102.pdf