vote on passing mark

[m&m]

What is everybody's bet on what the passing score will be on Course 2?

30/50?

[Avi]

29/50

[anya]

29/50 sounds reasonable to me.

[GenkiGirl]

As long as it's <31 I'm happy... :-)

[shluffer]

On what basis do you figure its around 30?

[Phonytician]

What is everybody's bet on what the passing score will be on Course 2?

30/50?


Since the exam turned out to be a little easier then previously thought,
I'd say 35+, to maintain standards. :swear: Seems like SOA picks the top 40% or so to pass.

[Dumbledore]

I think the pass mark will stay around 29-31.... 35 for a pass mark would make the 10 score at a mark of 49/50 which is highly unlikely.....

[shluffer]

I would think that they have some maximum pass score. Its hard to beleave that if its normally around 30 they would go over 35.

[snoo]

I think the maximum the pass mark would be is 33-34. But I don't know for sure. I know I didn't pass I think I only got 20-22 correct with guesses. But that's what I get for not studying as hard as I should have.

What was your guys' guess letter? Mine was B. So I had A LOT of B's. Were there a lot of B's on the exam???

Thanks!

[anya]

I had lots of E and few D

[Budder]

I think the maximum the pass mark would be is 33-34. But I don't know for sure. I know I didn't pass I think I only got 20-22 correct with guesses. But that's what I get for not studying as hard as I should have.

What was your guys' guess letter? Mine was B. So I had A LOT of B's. Were there a lot of B's on the exam???

Thanks!

I actually had B less than anything else. Lots of A's and C's for me...but C was my guess letter.

[crawlinghomedrunk]

According to the popular answer key at

http://www.boatingwithtr.com/paul/Exams/

the "average mark" will be 33.78/50 (using simplistic math that may or may not work). However, there is a good chance that more "smart" people entered their answers than "less smart" people, so it's possible that the passing mark might be in around that range. Probably 32-33. I hope they set it at 30-31, as that is what I think I was able to get, so I'm definitely keeping my fingers crossed for that...

[shluffer]

that way of figuring things out may not work because it is likely that people who did well did very well and others totaly blew it. on top of that, people who care enough to take out there answers probably have a higher pass rate. If someone would get the actual data and figure out how many of those people did well you could probobly get a better idea, but still not such a good one.

[crawlinghomedrunk]

I totally agree. I was just curious, so I quickly ran the numbers, and came up with 33.78/50. I imagine it was a total waste of time, but curiousity got the better of me...

[Avi]

I think the pass mark will stay around 29-31.... 35 for a pass mark would make the 10 score at a mark of 49/50 which is highly unlikely.....

How do you figure that? I mean, what determines what a 7, 8, 9, or 10 is in either Course 1 or Course 2?

[Dumbledore]

Dumbledore wrote:
I think the pass mark will stay around 29-31.... 35 for a pass mark would make the 10 score at a mark of 49/50 which is highly unlikely.....


How do you figure that? I mean, what determines what a 7, 8, 9, or 10 is in either Course 1 or Course 2?

Well the way that I have assumed is that we know a score of 0 represents a paper at less than 50% of the pass mark, a '1' is 50-59% of the pass mark, a '2' being 60-69% and so on with a '6' being the pass mark... extending this reasoning past '6' leads me to think that a score of '6' is actually 100-110% of the pass mark, a '7', 110-120% of the pass mark, and so on with a '10' being 140%+ of the pass mark...

My reasoning has no basis whatsoever to what the Society actually does for scores above 6, it is purely my own speculation..... That is why I tend to doubt when people say the pass mark will move more than 2 points from where it was last time irregardless of the difficulty of the exam....

[Macroman]

I think the pass mark will stay around 29-31.... 35 for a pass mark would make the 10 score at a mark of 49/50 which is highly unlikely.....

The SOA has not made any guarantees that it will be possible to get a 10 or even a 9 on its exams. The pass score that will allow a score of a 10 is in no way a constraint on them.

That said, I believe it most likely that the society will stick with historical precedants and select a pass mark near those used in the past in the abscence of strong evidence that the exam was harder or easier than those given in the past.

It is typical that volutary submission mechanisms will have higher participation among better candidates. If you check the results of the courses 3 & 4 for those submitting to the popular key you will see that their results are running at a level that would indicate 60% to 70% passing. I don't believe that this is a result of differences in the exam nearly so much as the selection of candidates. Better candidates are far more likely to participate in this process than the average.

[Dumbledore]

I tend to think I am in the 29-31 range on the exam so that is why I am hoping the pass mark doesn't deviate much from there...

.... for those of you submitting your answers to the answer key where are you falling at in terms of number of correct????.... maybe we can get a idea of the "Discussion Forum" mean of the pass mark and then back a point or two off for the premise that better prepared candidates tend to use the Forum more.... just my own curiousity is all..... :viola:

[m&m]

I tend to think I am in the 29-31 range on the exam so that is why I am hoping the pass mark doesn't deviate much from there...

.... for those of you submitting your answers to the answer key where are you falling at in terms of number of correct????.... maybe we can get a idea of the "Discussion Forum" mean of the pass mark and then back a point or two off for the premise that better prepared candidates tend to use the Forum more.... just my own curiousity is all..... :viola:

Good Idea, I am in the range of 32-34.
Hoping for the best as well...

[indytiger]

I am in the range of 31-37. 31 popular answers and 3 leading "Non-popular answers and 3 trailing "Non-popular answers. :-?

[retaker]

You two mean that is the number you think you got correct, not what the pass mark should be, right?

Looks like it is going to be closer to 30 this time. Maybe even 31.

[Drzy]

Just don't get your hopes up too much. Last time I matched 30 of the answers where more than 50% of the people chose a particular response, and still got a 5. :(

[retaker]

Yeah, you got screwed worse than me last time, Drzy.

I matched 27 or 28 on the popular answer key and got a 5!

I did not "remember" my answers this time, because it is a waste of time and because it is against the rules, appearantly. :borg:

what do you think about this time, Drzy?

[shluffer]

assuming the answer key was correct, that puts the pass mark between 31 and 33. That is if the SOA stuck to a 5 being within 10% of the passmark.

[retaker]

Note to administrators: We need a "brown nosing" or "butt kissing" Emoticon

[retaker]

that makes no sense, schluffer. it's like you are assuming what you are trying to prove. Or maybe it is just coming out wrong?

[Drzy]

what do you think about this time, Drzy?
Confidence is high. :D I match 34 questions where >50% is on one response, and 38 questions where I have the most common answer. If I didn't pass this time, I swear I'll explode. Literally. You'd see me on the front page news, or at least bits and pieces of me.

[Roto]

... definately different. Interest Theory was easier... Micro was as expected... Finance and Macro Q's were more obscure. On the bright side, I finished the exam in plenty of time unlike practice exams, I guessed on only 2-3 vs. double-digits in practice exams... but I was less-sure of the Finance/Macro answers I gave than in practice exams. I was scoring in mid-to-upper-30's in practice exams so hopefully everything evens out and I repeated that effort... but I'll be pretty nervous on the day exams are released!

[Collard Greene]

30 to 35 seems like a big jump from 1 exam to the next. Maybe it's still 30 & you people are just that damn smart.

[Drzy]

How can you only guess on 2 or 3 questions and not be absolutely certain you passed?

[Sweet Thong]

30 to 35 seems like a big jump from 1 exam to the next. Maybe it's still 30 & you people are just that d*mn smart.
Well, if we are really smart we can always help you later. I see that course2megamanual is tihnking about selling his notes, but I have notes on "test driving" (course 2 stuff) and I give free lessons. Let me know if you need a hand. ;) If it adds any credibility...I think I scored a 10. :D

[Sodii]

Sweet Thong, out of curiousity if you feel you scored a ten how did your answers compare with the popular answer key? I am curious as to its accuracy.

[Sweet Thong]

It's called sarcasm...I didn't get a 10, but lately it seems as if this is the place to come to brag about crap, so I thought I'd make it a little extreme. In fact, I don't think I got a 10...I think I got an 11. I always like to be one up on y'all. ;)

[VernSchil]

I don't think the people who post things like "this exam was a piece of cake" and "the pass mark will shoot up to 45/50!" have an accurate perception of the population who take these earlier tests. You're trying to compare everyone to yourself or your select group of very well prepared friends/colleagues, or maybe even the members of this forum, who DEFINITELY do not represent the entire population. The fact that we talk about these exams in our free time should tell you that. I highly doubt the pass mark will rise by more than 1 or 2 questions if it even rises at all. The exam was not vastly different enough from prior years to make an extreme change to the test result statistics.

[Collard Greene]

30 to 35 seems like a big jump from 1 exam to the next. Maybe it's still 30 & you people are just that d*mn smart.
Well, if we are really smart we can always help you later. I see that course2megamanual is tihnking about selling his notes, but I have notes on "test driving" (course 2 stuff) and I give free lessons. Let me know if you need a hand. ;) If it adds any credibility...I think I scored a 10. :D

I want to review those notes you have S.T. :D

[Roto]

How can you only guess on 2 or 3 questions and not be absolutely certain you passed?

I'm talking 2-3 guesses with 20% probability of correctness. There were MANY others where I either narrowed it down, or made an educated guess which I was maybe 75% sure about.

Practice exams I felt I was making a lot more blind guesses (either both because I was running out of time and there were more Q's that I was clueless on), however, there were definately a smaller proportion of problems upon which I made "educated guesses" on the practice exams.

[c3 taker]

I predict the score will be a lot higher this sitting. Did anyone else notice that this exam was easier than the 4 exams from 2000 and 2001?

A lot of ppl in the Toronto sitting finished early as well, and everyone came out feeling comfortable with it.

So i'm thinking somewhere around 35. In previous exams it used to be around 32. (Ppl recorded their answers and compared them when the results were released, when they used to release the 2000 and 2001 exams and their solutions).

I just hope i got between 35 and 38.

I agree that the exam seemed easier than previous exams the SOA has released but I also highly doubt the pass mark will go up to 35. I thinking it may rise a point or two (to maybe 32), but I still woundn't be surprised to see it right around 30.

I don't think the fact that people were leaving earlier has any correlation with the ease of the entire exam. The interest theory section normally takes the longest to complete and if it was easier, then people would be able to finish that section quicker. I agree with Roto that the finance and macro were more obscure which I feel will make up for the ease of the interest theory.

[Drzy]

Also, don't forget the big glut of people who passed course 1 last sitting. I'd bet there's a good chunk of people who spilled into course 2 without knowing what they were getting into (i.e. not preparing adequately).

[aas]

as soa set up similar traps to questions on the may exam. They set them up in the same places too ... micro and macro. The problem with the micro and macro is that its university economics professors who are making these questions up, and in many cases -they are not using landsburg or the macro study note as a reference but their own teaching material. What is worse, many of these questions are right out of an intermediate micro and macro theory course -not the micro 101 course.

[Amphiblitz]

That's o.k., though. The syllabus for Course 2 led me to prepare for intermediate level Econ questions rather than intro level.

As for the pass mark, I must agree that it won't be quite as low as previous exams. It was easier in general, but I'll limit my guesstimation of the increase to one or two as many of you have (31-32).

BTW, greetings to you all. This is my first post. I've been reading your posts since I learned of this site shortly after the exam. I finally registered yesterday.

Amphiblitz

as soa set up similar traps to questions on the may exam. They set them up in the same places too ... micro and macro. The problem with the micro and macro is that its university economics professors who are making these questions up, and in many cases -they are not using landsburg or the macro study note as a reference but their own teaching material. What is worse, many of these questions are right out of an intermediate micro and macro theory course -not the micro 101 course.

[GenkiGirl]

Also, don't forget the big glut of people who passed course 1 last sitting. I'd bet there's a good chunk of people who spilled into course 2 without knowing what they were getting into (i.e. not preparing adequately).

Hey hey hey.. why are you talking about me ;-)