Bidding Contest II, Week 10

[Klaymen]

The partnerships and over/under for week 9 are:

12.9 OIRG + BTDT DONE
12.5 Sand + NN DONE
12.2 CN + 4Sig
11.2 MN + EB DONE
11.1 AC - 790

Steve White has the sitout this week.

1) E+G, I+J, B+H, C+F, D+K. A sits out
2) C+I, D+G, A+E, F+H, J+K, B sits out
3) E+H, B+F, G+I, A+K, D+J, C sits out
4) E+K, I+F, C+G, J+H, A+B, D sits out
5) G+J, H+D, I+K, B+C, A+F, E sits out
6) A+J, C+D, B+G, H+K, E+I, F sits out
7) A+I, F+J, B+K, D+E, C+H, G sits out
8) A+C, E+F, I+D, B+J, G+K, H sits out
9) E+J, C+K, A+H, B+D, F+G, I sits out
10) C+E, G+H, K+F, A+D, B+I, J sits out
11) A+G, B+E, C+J, D+F, H+I, K sits out

PARTICIPANTS:
E) BTDT
I) Edmund
B) MN
C) OIRG
D) 4Sigma
F) -790
G) Sandman
J) SW
K) AC
H) NN
A) CN

[oirg]

BTDT and OIRG are done.

[MNBridge]

So are EB and MN.

[Klaymen]

Thus far we have an extremely mixed bag. I can almost feel the headache I will get trying to grade them.

[E. Blackadder]

Gee, that's too bad.

[4sigma]

Thus far we have an extremely mixed bag. I can almost feel the headache I will get trying to grade them.
:viola:

[MNBridge]

Gee, that's too bad.

Shooting for 39%? :)

Wait you are my partner!! CB I'm sure EB would be happy to help out during the grading process.

[E. Blackadder]

Shooting for 39%? :)
Shocked! I am shocked that you would think this!!!

[E. Blackadder]

:bump: CB must be watching something on his "free" channels. How are we doing on the bidding, folks?

[4sigma]

Sorry, I'm the one that's been holding up the CB-4σ bidding. Was out of town over the long weekend. I'll get back to it now.

[All Clear]

-790 has not made bids in five days. Just wanted to alert everyone that there will be a delay from our side during this set.

[Klaymen]

Has -790 bid at all? I'll give you just a couple more days and then we are just going to settle it and I'd adjust the scores accordingly, this is ridiculous.

[MNBridge]

Has -790 bid at all? I'll give you just a couple more days and then we are just going to settle it and I'd adjust the scores accordingly, this is ridiculous.

I would suggest that then next week instead of AC taking the sit out have -790 take it.

That way everyone (except -790) will still have the same number of rounds.

[All Clear]

He only bid twice, and has not bid in eight days. Perhaps you can pm him, and ask if he can make quicker bids- I already contacted him about that once. While I would prefer to be a part of this week's bidding game, I guess I can't object if you leave me out. :-(

[Klaymen]

I like MN's suggestion. I'm going to move forward with the results tonight, this has taken too long. AC and -790 will get their current scores for another week, that's penalty enough :)

[E. Blackadder]

so is playing.

[MNBridge]

I like MN's suggestion. I'm going to move forward with the results tonight, this has taken too long. AC and -790 will get their current scores for another week, that's penalty enough :)

I would suggest AC not get a score this week. If he is in next week he still will have the same number of scores as the rest of us.

-790 sort of is out of the running.

Of course I'll be happy with whatever you decide. Thanks for running this.

And at this point I'm curious what my bids were, should be interesting to see :)

[Captain Nemo]

I think we're done... I have the results at work, but not here. Has 4S PM'ed you?

[4sigma]

Yes, I sent them.

[4sigma]

I would suggest that then next week instead of AC taking the sit out have -790 take it.

That way everyone (except -790) will still have the same number of rounds.

Does that mean I don't get a sitout at all?

EB is scheduled to be partners with -790 next week. (We have not done the week 4 movement yet -- we did the week 11 movement during week 4, IIRC.) If I sit in for -790, do my scores with EB count twice? :yikes: ;)

[MNBridge]

Does that mean I don't get a sitout at all?

EB is scheduled to be partners with -790 next week. (We have not done the week 4 movement yet -- we did the week 11 movement during week 4, IIRC.) If I sit in for -790, do my scores with EB count twice? :yikes: ;)

I'm sorry I forgot we moved the weeks around.

My idea won't work any better then when I tried to play my singleton from dummy to the ace then go back again and play towards the KJ for a finesse :)

[4sigma]

Maybe I could sit in for -790 but not have my scores count. I could see if it is possible to take EB down any lower, and he'd have a handy excuse for any disasters that happen.

[Klaymen]

:sp: AKT
:ht: 87632
:dm: KJT
:cl: 83

:sp: Q652
:ht: J54
:dm: Q98
:cl: AK2

Two unimpressive hands. If the opponents lead spades you have a chance at 3NT. A rather fortunate heart lie is needed to make 4 hearts. Nobody here got out of hand. I expect a heart contract to lose 3 trumps and the diamond ace. Against NT, odds are you still lose three hearts, the diamond ace, and one or two more minor suit tricks. In spades, you could lose a trump trick but you get a club ruff, two clubs, three spades, and probably two diamonds - the opponents may end up trumping your good diamonds with a natural trump trick.

2.00 EB/MN 1:cl: 1:ht: 1:sp: 2NT 3:ht:
2.00 CN/4Sig P 1:dm: 1:sp:
1.25 Oirg/BTDT 1:cl: 1:ht: 1:sp: 2NT
0.75 NN/Sand P P

[Been There Done That]

Those hands look pretty flat, so the chance of a 3-3 spade break is higher than normal.

8 tricks in no trump must be close to 40%, maybe higher.

[Klaymen]

:sp: K6
:ht: K8
:dm: KT97
:cl: AT865

:sp: AJT43
:ht: AQJ
:dm: A
:cl: J974

Whether in spades or NT, it's all about the black suit losers. Unless you get the drop :sp:Qx, chances of a loser in that suit are about 50%. In the club suit assuming the opponents duck, I put the probability of KQxx or KQx at 3/8. The chances of both going wrong are not high.

2.25 Oirg/BTDT 1:sp: 2:cl: 3:cl: 3:dm: 3:ht: 3NT
1.75 NN/Sand 1:sp: 2:cl: 3:cl: 3NT 4NT 5:dm: 5:ht: 6NT
1.25 EB/MN 1:sp: 2:cl: 4:cl: 4NT 5:sp:
0.75 CN/4Sig 1:sp: 2:cl: 4NT 5:cl: 6:cl: 7:cl:

[Klaymen]

Those hands look pretty flat, so the chance of a 3-3 spade break is higher than normal.

8 tricks in no trump must be close to 40%, maybe higher.
Yes, I'm not convinced that 2NT is an absolute zero, but I'm just getting these up for now.

[Klaymen]

:sp: K982
:ht: 2
:dm: AKQT7
:cl: AQ5

:sp: AJT6
:ht: J94
:dm: J5432
:cl: K

Everybody landed in either 4 or 5 spades for a relatively flat board. Sure, on a diamond lead the 5:sp: bidders pull trump pronto and might be at a slight disadvantage if they feel the need to bang down the top two spade honors. But it's a guess either way. Nobody landed in 6:dm:.

[Klaymen]

:sp: 873
:ht: 75
:dm: T85
:cl: J8754

:sp: AJT5
:ht: J2
:dm: AKQ7
:cl: AK3

When I created this problem, I think I miscounted south as 19hcp and didn't get as many heart overcalls as I expected. Nevertheless... 2NT loses 5+ hearts, 1-2 spades. And possibly a club. And possibly a diamond too. You have 6 tricks for sure and probably 7 on an expected value basis.

It's difficult to judge the double of the 2 heart contract. If the distribution is flat, you take 2 clubs, 2-3 diamonds and 1-2 spades. Shapely hands could make though; I might figure on -1. 4:cl: will probably score better than 2NT if only because you get the club tricks and chances to make the spade suit work - the opponents can't just lead hearts the whole time.

A scoring nightmare. I'll dumb it down so nobody argues :)

1.75 NN/Sand 2:cl: [2:ht:] X
1.75 CN/4Sig 1:dm: [1:ht:] P [2:ht:] X 3:cl: 3:ht: 4:cl:
1.25 EB/MN 2NT
1.25 Oirg/BTDT 2NT

[Klaymen]

:sp: KQJ9763
:ht: 94
:dm: J3
:cl: J6

:sp: 5
:ht: AK
:dm: AT9842
:cl: K975

The best hope for making 4 here is finding the :cl:A onside. Odds are about 2-1 against. You could try to set up the diamonds, but on a heart lead I think you'll run out of entries. Repeated :ht: leads will force you to start the club suit.

1.75 CN/4Sig [1:ht:] 3:sp:
1.75 EB/MN [1:ht:] 3:sp:
1.75 Oirg/BTDT [1:ht:] 3:sp:
0.75 NN/Sand [1:ht:] 4:sp:

[Klaymen]

:sp: Q5
:ht: 4
:dm: T8532
:cl: AJ984

:sp: A97
:ht: KT95
:dm: AQ764
:cl: T

The 2:cl: contract has me puzzled.

2.00 CN/4Sig 1:dm: [X] 3:dm:
2.00 EB/MN 1:dm: [X] 2:dm:
2.00 Oirg/BTDT 1:dm: [X] 3:dm:
0.00 NN/Sand 1:dm: [X] 2:cl:

[Klaymen]

Evidently I put some incorrect auctions down, I'll hope to double-check everything tonight. In the meantime, file your greivances :)

[E. Blackadder]

OF COURSE in CB-land, the stand-out, in-your-face action leads to av-. :roll:

I speak of hand #4. OBV!! LEE!! Rigged!!!

[oirg]

:sp: 873
:ht: 75
:dm: T85
:cl: J8754

:sp: AJT5
:ht: J2
:dm: AKQ7
:cl: AK3

When I created this problem, I think I miscounted south as 19hcp and didn't get as many heart overcalls as I expected. Nevertheless... 2NT loses 5+ hearts, 1-2 spades. And possibly a club. And possibly a diamond too. You have 6 tricks for sure and probably 7 on an expected value basis.

It's difficult to judge the double of the 2 heart contract. If the distribution is flat, you take 2 clubs, 2-3 diamonds and 1-2 spades. Shapely hands could make though; I might figure on -1. 4:cl: will probably score better than 2NT if only because you get the club tricks and chances to make the spade suit work - the opponents can't just lead hearts the whole time.

A scoring nightmare. I'll dumb it down so nobody argues :)

2.50 NN/Sand 2:cl: [2:ht:] X
1.50 CN/4Sig 1:dm: [1:ht:] P [2:ht:] X 3:cl: 3:ht: 4:cl:
1.00 EB/MN 2NT
1.00 Oirg/BTDT 2NT

I think that in the contract with the 2C-2H-dbl auction, 2H will make more often than not. I think that the 2H overcaller of a strong 2C bid will have at least 6H, and either the remainder of points or extra distribution.

[4sigma]

Those hands look pretty flat, so the chance of a 3-3 spade break is higher than normal.

8 tricks in no trump must be close to 40%, maybe higher.

If spades are 3-3, I'm taking 9 tricks in spades -- 4 spades, 2 diamonds, 2 clubs, and a club ruff. As long as diamonds are 4-3. Since the hands are pretty flat, the odds of that must be at least 70%. :)

[4sigma]

On hand #2, I believe Nemo and I are the ones in 7:cl: on a blackwood snafu. I find it highly improbable that anyone else duplicated our auction, especially Oirg and BTDT.

[4sigma]

:sp: AKT
:ht: 87632
:dm: KJT
:cl: 83

:sp: Q652
:ht: J54
:dm: Q98
:cl: AK2

Two unimpressive hands. If the opponents lead spades you have a chance at 3NT. A rather fortunate heart lie is needed to make 4 hearts. Nobody here got out of hand. I expect a heart contract to lose 3 trumps and the diamond ace. Against NT, odds are you still lose three hearts, the diamond ace, and one or two more minor suit tricks. In spades, you could lose a trump trick but you get a club ruff, two clubs, three spades, and probably two diamonds - the opponents may end up trumping your good diamonds with a natural trump trick.

3.00 EB/MN 1:cl: 1:ht: 1:sp: 2NT 3:ht:
2.00 CN/4Sig P 1:dm: 1:sp:
1.00 NN/Sand P P
0.00 Oirg/BTDT 1:cl: 1:ht: 1:sp: 2NT

This is going to be a messy one. 3:ht: is normally making 3, though it will run afoul of 4-1 trump breaks, or a few rare cases in 3-2 breaks when opponents can get a ruff (spade or diamond) in the hand with the doubleton trump. Overall I'd expect 3:ht: to make 65% of the time, otherwise it will be down 1.

1:sp: is certainly in no jeopardy. I think the normal line is to knock out the :dm:A, then hope to ruff a club and draw trumps. This will usually make 8 tricks, but will make 9 tricks when spades are 3-3 as long as your diamond winner does not get ruffed. Call this perhaps 30% of the time that 1S makes 3, otherwise it makes only 2.

2NT pretty much needs to bring in the spade suit. Finessing the Ten is a better percentage play than playing for the 3-3 split. So this will make 8 tricks 50% of the time and go down one 50% of the time.

Scoring:

"passed out" gets 1 MP from beating 2NT when it goes down (50%), and 1 MP for beating 3H when it goes down (35%). Total = 0.85 MP. Suggest Passed Out = 0.75 or 1.0

When 3H makes (65%) it scores a 3.0 top (70%) or 2.5 tie for top (30%) depending whether or not 1S makes 2 or 3. When 3H goes down (35%) it scores a 0.0 bottom (50%) or 0.5 tie for bottom (50%) depending whether 2NT makes or not. Weighting this all together gives 3H = 1.94. Suggest 3H = 2.0

When 1S makes 3 (30%) it scores a 3.0 top (35%) or 2.5 tie for top (65%) depending whether or not 3H makes. When 1S makes 2 (70%) it scores 1MP for beating Passed out (100%), 2NT going down (50%) and 3H going down (35%). Weighting this all together gives 1S = 2.0975. Suggest 1S = 2.0

Finally, when 2NT makes (50%) it scores 1 MP for beating Passed Out (100%), 3H (35%) and 1S (70%) = 2.05. When it goes down it scores 0.5 MP for tying with 3H going down (35%) = 0.175. Weighting these together gives 2NT = 1.1125. Suggest 2NT = 1.0 or 1.25


Overall recommended scoring:

2.00 EB/MN 1:cl: 1:ht: 1:sp: 2NT 3:ht:
2.00 CN/4Sig P 1:dm: 1:sp:
1.25 Oirg/BTDT 1:cl: 1:ht: 1:sp: 2NT
0.75 NN/Sand P P

It's close between this vs. "2NT = 1.0 and passed out = 1.0" I think I have to give the edge to 2NT for the more stylish auction. :)

[4sigma]

:sp: K6
:ht: K8
:dm: KT97
:cl: AT865

:sp: AJT43
:ht: AQJ
:dm: A
:cl: J974

Whether in spades or NT, it's all about the black suit losers. Unless you get the drop :sp:Qx, chances of a loser in that suit are about 50%. In the club suit assuming the opponents duck, I put the probability of KQxx or KQx at 3/8. The chances of both going wrong are not high.

2.50 NN/Sand 1:sp: 2:cl: 3:cl: 3NT 4NT 5:dm: 5:ht: 6NT
2.25 Oirg/BTDT 1:sp: 2:cl: 3:cl: 3:dm: 3:ht: 3NT
1.25 EB/MN 1:sp: 2:cl: 4:cl: 4NT 5:sp:
0.00 CN/4Sig 1:sp: 2:cl: 4NT 5:cl: 6:cl: 7:cl:

CN and I are the ones that overbid to 7:cl:. I assume Oirg/BTDT stopped sensibly in 3NT.

I think you are a bit optimistic here about the chances of making 6NT. For starters you will take the double club finesse, which is 75%. But even so, you're only up to 11 tricks. (4 clubs, 2 diamonds, 3 hearts, 2 spades). Your 12th trick will need to come from a spade finesse, or less likely, a spade-diamond squeeze. Even if we say that all adds up to 60%, the overall success of 6NT is only 45%. 6NT gets a top when it makes but it ties with 7C down 1 when it fails, so suggest 6NT = 1.5, 7:cl: = 0.5

Edited to reflect that board are being scored on a "3" top, not a "4" top.

[4sigma]

OF COURSE in CB-land, the stand-out, in-your-face action leads to av-. :roll:

I speak of hand #4. OBV!! LEE!! Rigged!!!

I am not fond of a 2NT opening when one of my suits is Jx. This hand is a good example of why. I thought it was close between opening 2:cl: and 1:dm:. What would you open if the hand were :sp:AJTx :ht:x :dm:AKQx :cl:AKJx?

I would be interested to see more discussion of the merits of defending 2:ht:X. Overcaller is a favorite to have a 6-card heart suit, and he can also take at least one spade trick by force. The question is whether declarer can negotiate an 8th trick -- this could be in the spade suit, the club suit, or by scoring a ruff in dummy.

[Klaymen]

I think you are a bit optimistic here about the chances of making 6NT.

It was late when I did this, you're right I think I was figuring the chances of making 5NT.

[E. Blackadder]

I am not fond of a 2NT opening when one of my suits is Jx. This hand is a good example of why. I thought it was close between opening 2:cl: and 1:dm:. What would you open if the hand were :sp:AJTx :ht:x :dm:AKQx :cl:AKJx?
In my system, it's an obvious 1 :cl: opening bid. But I could tolerate 1 :dm:.


I would be interested to see more discussion of the merits of defending 2:ht:X. Overcaller is a favorite to have a 6-card heart suit, and he can also take at least one spade trick by force. The question is whether declarer can negotiate an 8th trick -- this could be in the spade suit, the club suit, or by scoring a ruff in dummy.
If Overcaller were I, Dummy would be a favorite to have seven- or even eight-card trump support. ;-)

[Been There Done That]

We were playing BWS which explicitly allows a worthless doubleton in a 2NT opener. So, I claim a system fix on that board.

[Klaymen]

We were playing BWS which explicitly allows a worthless doubleton in a 2NT opener. So, I claim a system fix on that board.

Yep, never happens in real life.

[Numbers Nerd]

I am not fond of a 2NT opening when one of my suits is Jx. This hand is a good example of why. I thought it was close between opening 2:cl: and 1:dm:. What would you open if the hand were :sp:AJTx :ht:x :dm:AKQx :cl:AKJx?

I would be interested to see more discussion of the merits of defending 2:ht:X. Overcaller is a favorite to have a 6-card heart suit, and he can also take at least one spade trick by force. The question is whether declarer can negotiate an 8th trick -- this could be in the spade suit, the club suit, or by scoring a ruff in dummy.

If opener is 6-3-2-2, opponents will take either 5 or 6 tricks depending on his three-card suit. If diamonds, obviously it is down 1. If spades, then the answer depends on how the spade honors are split. Only if declarer has both spade honors, and can arrange to have the suit lead twice, will he make two spade tricks. If he has 3 clubs, then he will make 2H by ruffing a club.

The odds of these various holdings are dependant on the number of outstanding cards. I would guess something like 40% spades, 40% diamonds, and 20% clubs. Thus he goes down on perhaps 3/4 of the spade hands and all of the diamond hands, or a total of 70% of the time.

If declarer is instead 6-3-3-1, he only goes down if his singleton is clubs, which would be perhaps 40% of the time, minus those times when declarer has both spade honors and can get spades lead twice.

This is further reduced by the fact that sometimes declarer will have a 7-card heart (and rarely 5). Or perhaps he is 6-4. So in the end, 2H will go down in the range of 40-50% of the time. Thus 2HX should get a score of 1.25 or 1.5.

[4sigma]

Nice analysis. Though I think you are shortchanging yourself slightly.

If declarer is instead 6-3-3-1, he only goes down if his singleton is clubs.... Declarer also goes down when his singleton is spades, yes? Defense cashes 3 diamonds, 2 clubs, and a spade.

This is another 30% or so of the 6331 hands, or about 10% of total hands, i.e. 10% X 3.0 MP ~ 0.3 additional MP. So perhaps 2:ht:X deserves 1.5 to 1.75.

[4sigma]

General question for our moderator:

Are we scoring this week on a 3 Top? If so, this week will have less weight than the other weeks in the cumulative totals.

We could score it on a 4 Top by making the total MP per board add up to 8.25 or 8.5, which effectively gives average minus to All Clear and -790. (But they could keep their existing scores -- just factor up their final matchpoints by 11.1% after the final round.)

[Klaymen]

I'm going to convert everything to percentages and offbalance for the missing pair.

[5sigma]

I'm going to convert everything to percentages and offbalance for the missing pair. This is also sensible.

(Posting as 5sigma for the moment so I don't mess up my stylish 4sigma post count.)

[Listerine]

How did I end up in a bridge thread???


:-?





je me roufle, je me slais... ah ah

[Klaymen]

After looking at people's scores, I am going to maintain AC's score and penalize -790 with a 35%. Steve White gets an average 50%. Everyone else gets bumped up to an average of 52.61%. The scores for this week are:

58.46% OIRG/BTDT
57.00% EB/MN
57.00% CN/4Sig
38.00% NN/Sand

[Klaymen]

This brings the standings with 1 week to go to:
56.98% SW
56.68% BTDT
55.28% 4Sig
51.51% NN
50.43% OIRG
49.66% MN
48.38% Sand
46.12% CN
46.00% -790
44.45% EB
44.10% AC